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Chapter One PLANNING I
Chapter One PLANNING I
This period covers immediately after cease of World War II up to the end of 1960's and
beginning of 1970's. This is an interesting period for the developing world because it gets
attention by academicians how growth and development could be achieved in these countries.
That is why in the 1950's and 1960's, the previously neglected sub-fields of Development
Economics were rediscovered. Available economic models seemed to offer only limited insights
into the practical problems facing the so-called Third World. The dominant one-sector macro
models of the day, from Keynesian to Harrod-Domar to Solow seemed to have relatively little
relevance for societies not primarily concerned with business cycles or steady state properties.
The period, for ease of understanding could be looked into five important sub- periods.
a) Dualism
It attracted due attention during the 1950s and 1960s. The components under dualism are:
Sociological dualism: Boeke, 1953 is the major proponent. The central theme of
sociological dualism was differences between western and non-western objectives and
cultures are the major source for dualism.
Technological dualism: Higgins, 1956 is the major proponent. Differences between
variable factor proportions in the traditional sector and fixed coefficients in modern
sector as major source for dualism.
Physiocrats: viewing land as the source of all wealth, agricultural surplus supporting the
non-agricultural sector.
Classical dualism: Ricardo and Lewis 1951 are major proponents. Surplus labor as
potential for growth when transferred from agriculture to non-agriculture. Lewis also
asserts dualism in labor markets (competitive wage in non agriculture versus
institutional wage in agriculture as basis for dualism).
d) Interventionist State
The current theoretical thinking indicates that there is strong inclination to turn to the
intervention state as a key instrument for development. The reasons that this was considered as
key instrument for development are first pre-colonial independent countries want to exercise
their own development agenda. At home the interventionist felt the need to create
infrastructure, and the institutions required to permit the functioning of a national entity.
Second industrialization was synonymous with development (2 nd industrialization revolution).
The motivation was to promote industry, with relatively less attention paid to what was viewed
as a stubbornly stagnant agriculture portrayed as a drag on the economy, and with peasants
seen as non-responsive to prices and profit opportunities.
A logical accompaniment of these views were PLANNING MODELS, focusing on the flow of
resources, domestically financed investment supplemented by foreign capital and paying
relatively little attention to changes in the behavior of the system or the relevance of technology.
The planning models used were:
Planning for resources: such as Simple Harrod - Domar and Mahalonobis models. These
models are all silent on price, and foreign exchange rate flexibility. The predominant
view of policy makers at that time was that growth and efficiency should take priority
and the issues of equity, poverty alleviation, etc should be taken care of at a latter date.
Multi - sector production function with multiple inputs and variable (Input-Output
models, Social Accounting Matrix). The real focus of planning shifted from resources
focus to devising strategies for policy change to accommodate the changing requirements
of transition.
It was, however, Kuznets 1971, though mainly concerned with describing modern growth
rather than analyzing the transition process in getting there, which provided another essential
ingredient focused precisely on the developing world at the end of the post-war consensus era.
Kuznets was interested in why some developing countries were successful and others not and
placed major emphasis on the sources of structural change over time as between agriculture,
industry and services. He viewed policy as either basically accommodative or obstructive to the
play of underlying economic forces and did not view it as an exogenous variable.
The basic efficiency - equity tradeoffs led to redistribution with growth approach of
development. The controversial relationship between growth and income poverty alleviation is
that growth is a necessary but not sufficient condition for poverty reduction.
Theoretical Revisionism
Recently with the advancement in theoretical thinking and problems faced in global relations,
there arises a need to revise some theories. These are:
New Trade Theory: the challenge to openness (globalization) and favoring import
substitution (infants) leads to the two-way relationship between growth and human
development.
Recent emphasize of development economists are on: micro foundations of development
issues (women household decision making; poor performance of land, labor and credit
markets) and micro-credit organizations and NGO's in developing countries.
Avoid dealing with large number and going towards a set of small number comparative
historical studies encompassing typologically ''neighboring'' countries.
Need to pursue on the two-way relationship between growth and human development.
Closer look on the pros and cons of decentralization and its relation to democratization
and decision making by the broader body politics.
The idea of planning has a long history and goes back to the time of Pluto [the first person who
talked about organized planning]. It was later developed, shaped and molded by eminent
thinkers and writers both in the western and eastern camp. However, the idea of economic
planning in its modern form is comparatively new. It is the 20th century phenomena.
The main objective of the socialist (Soviet) plan was to achieve the rapid transformation of a
backward agriculture sector (traditional sector) into a modern industrial sector.
a) The development of science and technology not only made material progress possible,
but also they made planning possible as well improve computation facility; advances in
management theory (organization coordination). The intervening depression reminded
the state of the tragedy incompleteness of economic theory and public policy.
b) In the 1930’s, the capitalist world was in the midst of the biggest depression in the world
history. Capitalism failed an utter collapse and its inherent contradiction came up to the
surface. Economic growth collapsed and acute misery poverty well experienced by
people. Therefore, economist and politician favored economic planning as a remedy for
these and other economic ills. People’s mind now turned to economic planning as
panacea for their economic ills while Keynes writings also in a way strengthen the belief
in the efficacy and economic planning in capitalist countries. Meanwhile there was an
attempt to plan economic life in Nazi German and Fascist Italy during the time (thirties).
Note: - The objective of the economic planning in the West was basically different from
that of the Soviet Union. The purpose of planning in Nazi Germany was primarily to
build up the war potential rather than improving the living standard of the people.
c) The outbreak of World War I and II necessitates the proper and efficient planning of
economic resources for successful prosecution of the war. [For coordinated management
of scarce resources]
d) In the post war period, the war devastated countries of Europe were compelled to resort
to economic planning to rehabilitate themselves owing to:-
As a condition for receiving assistance under the Marshal plan, the USA insisted
upon these countries to formulate their rehabilitation plan covering almost every
sector of the economy.
The USA itself has recognized the significance of economic planning when it
adopts an economic program called the “new deal” to come out of the suffering
from great depression in thirties.
e) The growth of markets and increased specialization led to increased interdependence
among economic activities and to greater economic externalities, which lead to adoption
of economic planning. There is a need to intervene public agencies to rectify the negative
externalities.
f) The development of democracy also lead to the adoption of planning in order to rectify
social inequalities people could vote for those who experience an interventionist
approach.
In general, after its introduction in the USSR in 1929 the concept of planning remained
unconsidered for about two decades, till after the end of WWII. Socialist countries started
preparing and implementing their plans after 1945 whereas non socialist countries planning
took birth in the 1950’s. Not only is planning in practice very new, it has during its brief
existence, undergone several changes. These includes considerable diversification of methods
of planning, even in socialist countries, according to the specific historical conditions of each
country; greater decentralization, particularly in the sphere of management of industry ,large
use of economic incentives and decreasing use of administrative instruments for the
implementation of plans etc.
Planning at any time is concerned with the future, when the goal laid down in a plan and the
means by which these are to be achieved depends on. Forcasting involving the use of statistical
laws and probability calculation also concerns the future and provides answer to questions like
“when?” and “how accurately?” Planning is not forecasting although it makes use of the
techniques of forecasting.
Forecasting regards economic activity as a spontaneous activity ,which it just trace out and to
which we are subjected whereas planning influences the course of events and under it man,
instead of being subjected to economic events, dictates to the economy. As such planning also
limits the relevance of forecasting by controlling the events. It follows that with the increase the
degree of perfection in planning, the field of forecasting will be corresponding reduced.
Despite the difference, it is nevertheless true that planning implies a preliminary operation of
forecasting. No planning is possible with out planners at first being aware of the future course
of events.
In the situation where future economic developments are unavoidable each plan constitutes a
blend of elements of forecasting as to what is what is objectively unavoidable with planning of
what is desired. Forecasting gets in the preparation of planning in two ways in the preparation
of plans, and in knowing about those developments which cannot be influenced. As stated by
Maurice Dobb <<any plan must in some form by synthesis of forecast and direction>>.
There is no agreement among economists with regard to the meaning of the term economic
planning. The term has been used very loosely in economic literature. It is often confused with
communism, socialism or economic development. Any type of state intervention in economic
affairs has also been treated as planning. But the state can intervene even without making any
plan. What then is planning?
There is an enormous literature in which it refers only to the geographical zoning of factors,
residential buildings, cinemas and the like. Sometimes this is called town and country planning
and sometimes just planning.
Planning means only deciding what money the government will spend in the future, if it has the
money to spend.
A planned economy is one in which each production unit (or firm) uses only the resources of
men, materials and equipment allocated to it by quota and disposes of its product exclusively to
persons or firms indicated to it by central order.
Planning' sometimes means any setting of production targets by the government, whether for
private or public enterprise. Most governments practice this type of planning if only
sporadically, and if only for one or two industries or services to which they attach special
importance.
Here targets are set for the economy as a whole, purporting to allocate all the country's labor,
foreign exchange raw materials and other resources between the various branches of the
economy.
The word 'planning' is sometimes used to describe the means which the government uses to try
to en force upon private enterprise the targets which have been previously determined.
But Ferdynand Zweig maintains that planning is planning of the economy, not within the
economy. It is not a mere planning of towns, public works or separate section of the national
economy, but of the economy as a whole. Thus planning does not mean piecemeal planning but
overall planning of the economy.
Professor Robbins defines economic planning as "collective control or super session of private
activities of production and exchange."
To Hayek, planning means, "the direction of productive activity by a central authority."
According to Dr. Dalton, "Economic planning in the widest sense is the deliberate direction by
persons in charge of large resources of economic activity towards chosen ends."
Lewis Lord win defined economic planning, "as a scheme. of economic organization in which
individual and separate plants, enterprises, and industries are treated as coordinate units of one
single system for the purpose of utilizing available resources to achieve the maximum
satisfaction of the people's needs within a given time.
In the words of Zweig, "Economic planning consists in the extension of the functions of public
authorities to organization and utilization, of economic resources. Planning implies and leads
to" centralization of the national economy.
One of the most popular definitions is by Dickinson who defines planning as the making of
major economic decisions on:
what and how much is to be produced,
How, when and where it is to be produced, and
to whom it is to be allocated,
Even though there is no unanimity of opinion on the subject, yet economic planning as
understood by the majority of economists implies deliberate control and direction of the
economy by a central authority for the purpose of achieving definite targets and objectives
within a specified period of time.
As a working definition Planning is a technique or a means to achieve an end. End refers to certain
predetermined target (well defined objective). End might be achieving:
Economic objectives,
social objectives or military objectives or both
The main point is not to have plan or not to have plan but what kind of plan do we need to
achieve the objectives. Intervention of state in all economic activities is inevitable, i.e.;
government do intervene in an economy in one way or another. But what matters is the degree,
type and nature of intervention.
It is difficult to have a single universal accepted definition of economic planning. There are
various factors which obstructed for the clear and precise concept of economic planning. The
concept of economic planning can be seen from two angles. These include institutional related
meaning of economic planning and development related meaning of economic planning. The
former concept is related with the ownership pattern of resources. In regard to this concept for
socialist countries economic planning in the context of private ownership is contradictory and like
hot-ice. For them it is precisely for doing things differently from market mechanism that planning
is needed. On the other hand non-socialist economies planning is compatible with any
institutional arrangement (privatization, liberal competitive market system etc).
Thomas Wilson described growth related meaning of economic planning. According to the author
“planning is a number of consistent and related measures designed to create an environment
more favorable to growth” or “planning involves the preparation of official programmes in order
to control the production of every industrial enterprises”.
Everett E. Hagen mentioned institutional related meaning of economic planning. Planning for
economies which resources owned by the government is understood to refer to “centralized
control of the economy” where as for market economies or mixed economies, planning implies
“the government has organized its decision making process so as to take account of all the
economies effects of each of its acts to achieved as rapid economic growth as is consistent with
other national goals.
Planning has been introduced in different countries for different reasons. In socialist countries,
where revolutions preceded and public ownership of resources followed, planning becomes an
institutional need of the system. In non-socialist countries, with private ownership, several
factors have initiated the use of planning. On the other hand colonized countries used need
planning to be out of the colonial system and to adopt their own independent system. Despite
the large number of factors contributing for the need of planning, one can nevertheless broadly
list the major ones as follow.
I. Institutional Requirement
In a number of countries planning has been made use of to meet the institutional needs of their
people. The need of planning in socialist countries is to abolish private sectors /ownership/ in
the means of production and its replacement by public /state/ ownership and to influence the
character of ideology that has in spite people in this structural change of ownership. Another
aspect if related to capital accumulation A socialist society without private capitalist, needs
planning to determine the pace and pattern of capital formation as per its need.
The countries free from the colonial yoke has been found planning as the most effective
institutional/medium to achieve their common goals and to have a bright future, with rapid
industrialization and progressive growth rate. For non-socialist countries planning is important
to in the competitive economic system.
Technologies of modern times involve so much expense that their fuller utilization requires that
they should be used in planned way. Due to a certain principal features of technology such as
indivisibility adjustability, product changes and mass production planning at a national scale is
important for the proper functioning of it. Modern technology is not variable or divisible to suit
just any scale of production. Thus, planning is crucial to reap the full benefits and to avoid any
wastage, to be certain about factors supplies as also the absence of any risk in respect of demand
for goods. Proper planning is important to modify, change or replace capital goods as the
technology changes as to provide fast depreciation of existing capital goods which is not related
to the technological fixed rate of wearing out over a fixed span of live capital goods. In addition
to these planning also necessary for the following issues first planning is important for new
products to take shape smoothes without upsetting existing productive capacity to much. It is
necessary to allow for time in the case of change, and security of future demand for existing
units. Secondly, modem technology is a mass production technology. Undertaking all allied
activities of production simultaneously could be beyond the capacity of the existing market
institution, even beyond the administrative set up of the country. Hence, planning at a national
or world wide scale through its perception of activities can provide for the multifarious
activities to ensure that the cost and the price of mass produced goods are kept minimum.
For many countries whether they are developed or less developed, development has been the
major reason for the adoption of planning. Planning is needed to organize surplus for
investment and mobilize resources through taxes, interest, price etc. In regard to the
development aspect planning is crucial for the following reasons.
Due to special features of less developing countries, planning also has a special importance for
these countries on top of the above benefits. These include:
1. Removing antigrowth milieu - There are different economic, social and political factors
that hinder the economic growth of developing countries. All these stands in the way of
development can be removed by establishing now industries and expanding the old ones,
creating a smooth environment for foreign direct investment and sealing up the social
awareness.
2. Over-Coming Smallness - the smallness may be created due to low incomes so that low
demand for goods and sowing, small geographical size, high population growth or
paucity of natural resources. These problems can be solved by proper planning strategies.
3. Development of infrastructure – infrastructure on telecom ,highway ,urbanization,
electrification etc-
4. Public enthusiasm - planning in lesser developed countries find fertile growing in the
mind of the people. The one most important thing that provides a fertile ground for
planning is the newly generated enthusiasm of the people for it. They see in plans their
dream of high standard of living. Such a wish produces a dynamic force and an
improvement in their working culture. They even over look errors and incompetence,
tolerance mistakes and willingly accept hardships for the sake of bright future.
5. Large opportunities - The planner see in the present situation of LDCs’ great new
possibilities of growth. The knowledge about the resources and technologies practices in
advanced countries is of considerable significance in exploring and tapping their own
resources. They are opportunities for doing big things like creation of new factories, high
ways etc. These tires imagination of the leaders in the various field of life.
6. Semi-closed economies - Since LDCs’ are Characterized by: semi-closed economies, non
industrial and highly dominated by agricultural sector. Thus, any fluctuation in the
foreign economies couldn’t’ influence them significantly. For this semi closed and small
economies it is easier for the planner to fit them into plan frame.
7. Easier control and regulation- planned activities does not involve much demolition of
old activities as there is nothing to replace. Besides, development in these countries is
largely in the nature of gap filling. i.e setting of new industries, construction of dams
etc ,where nothing existed before. This makes the task of control regulation much easier.
i. Realistic goals- The formulation of objectives is the first major step in designing a good
plan while keeping in view the productive capacity of a country a plan. While
keeping in view the productive capacity of a country a plan should be such that it
should be inspire people to give the best for its implementation and completion. The
goal should be compatible with each other and consistent.
ii. Appropriate policies and instruments- It is essential that adequate provision is made
for the fulfillment of planning through appropriate policies and instruments. Policies
outline the action and instruments are means to carry out the action.
iv. Rational Institutions- An important requirement for successful planning is the presence
of such institutional arrangements that are conducive to the formation and execution
of plans. Institutions are of primary importance in the process of combining
resources of the potential of a country that are undertaken through human beings.
Among organizational agencies an important one is the institutions of public sectors.
v. Appropriate administrative and Technical Apparatus- This comprises the agencies, the
personnel and the producers and precedents for the effective operation of a plan,
these agencies need personnel which should be adequate in performing the various
services associated it planning
As a tool planning could not be a remedy for all economy, social and other ills. Broadly the
limitation could be on; concepts, coordination, action, follow up. The specific limitations
observed on planning are:
a. Planning heavily depends on reliable data. If there are no reliable data, the potential
benefits of planning will undermined.
b. The problem of discontinuity. Planning models don’t deal with random shocks (natural
hazards, social changes, human intervention).plans work effective when social and
economic development changed continuously.
c. The problem of uncertainty (natural, market, war, international) which hinders the
success of the desired goal of the plan.
d. Inherently market is not imperfect. Market could be perfect by man mechanism. Thus,
no need of government intervention through planning.
e. Cost of planning administration and implementation in LDCs is too high.