11 YEARS

OF RESEARCHING PUNE’S
REAL ESTATE MARKET.

AND PREDICTING ITS FUTURE.

THE GERA

RESIDENTIAL
REALTY REPORT
THE YARDSTICK FOR
PUNE REALTY

VOLUME 11 | ISSUE 2 | JULY 2022

CONTENTS

FOREWORD4

INVENTORY OVERVIEW 6

INVENTORY AVAILABLE FOR SALE 8

PRICES10

REPLACEMENT RATIO 11

AFFORDABILITY12

INVENTORY OVERHANG 14

NEW LAUNCHES 15

SALES OVERVIEW 21

HOME SIZES 26

INVENTORY VALUE AND SQUARE FEET 27

CONCLUSION28

ANNEXURES29

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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 11 | Issue 2 | July 2022

FOREWORD
ROHIT GERA
MANAGING DIRECTOR
GERA DEVELOPMENTS PVT. LTD.

The acronym VUCA is extremely applicable to the Pune Real Estate market. VUCA
stands for Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous.

On one hand, we saw positive sentiment translating to robust sales and positive
price movement after years of shocks - created by man and God. We had hoped for
a sustained recovery, however, we are now faced with a war, supply chain disruption,
inflation, global challenges, a stock market rout, rising interest rates. In addition to
this, we also have the Government to thank for a massive increase in the FSI leading
to a potential over supply.

How the real estate market moves from here is anyones guess. Here are the factors
that will influence the outcome as we look forward.

After years of prices falling, we have now seen home prices continue to rise for the
last 2 years. This is a good sign as affordability continues to be a near all time highs
as well. Unfortunately, increasing interest rates eat into the sentiment of home buyers
and this could affect sales in the future. The impact is not so much on account of the
actual impact to affordability but the sentiment that rising interest rates lead to. We
have seen one round of interest rate hikes and most market watchers are predicting
another 100 basis points increase in the coming months.

Sales and new project launches are at all time highs. The last 12 months saw more
than 1.15 lakh homes being brought to market and over 1.05 lakh homes being
sold. Both numbers are all time high records. The luxury segment too, saw an

4
 Intellectual Property Rights Owned by Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. | www.gera.in

increase in sales and new launches – infact to compensate for the years of being in
the doldrums. As a result of the increase in launches in the luxury segment, there is
an increase in the average price per square foot as well as average size of homes
launched in the last year.

The good news therefore is the demand is back & sales are up, prices have risen
to take care of the tremendous increase in input costs of the developers. There is a
positive mood amongst developers. At any other time in history, these factors would
be cause to celebrate and be bullish about the future of the real estate sector. This
time however, the dark clouds are clearly visible and threaten to spoil the party.
Time will tell which way the market moves, however, in our view, cautious optimism
is the way to go in this VUCA world.

ROHIT GERA
Managing Director
GERA DEVELOPMENTS PRIVATE LIMITED

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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 11 | Issue 2 | July 2022

INVENTORY
OVERVIEW
Inventory available for sale increases by 26% after reducing for 36 months

The consolidation in the real estate sector resulting from the introduction of RERA
in 2016 combined with consumers becoming more discerning, financial instutions
becoming increasingly risk averse and the covid impact is visible in the total number
of ongoing projects. From a peak of 3,733 ongoing projects in Jun ’17, the number
of ongoing projects has dropped by nearly 33% to 2,503 in Jun ’22. While the
number of projects has reduced, the total number of apartments being developed
in these projects has gone down marginally (less than 4%) leading to increased
project sizes being undertaken by larger developers. The lesser projects with a larger
inventory means the size per project has increased from 88 apartments per project
in Jun ’13 to 126 apartments per project in Jun ’22. This indicates an increase of
approx. 42% in the average project size.

The total inventory available for sale has increased from 59,224 in June ’21 to
74,818 units in June ‘22. This is an increase of ~26% from a year ago. After
reducing for three consecutive 12 month periods the unsold inventory levels have
increased but are still a far distance from the peak inventory for sale of 1,07,402
units seen in Jun ’16. Assessing the year end percentage inventory available for sale
indicates that 76.25% of the total inventory has been sold and 23.75% is unsold.

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FIG 1 - INVENTORY OVERVIEW

3,27,670
3,23,372

3,02,591

3,15,088
3,01,731

3,11,242

2,88,450
2,80,913
350,000
3,496 3,733
3,472 2,503
2,45,639

3,471 3,076 2,730

300,000 3,067

23.75%
30.52%

24.23%
33.21%
2,01,464

26.29%

26.53%

20.53%
2,761
32.32%

250,000
27.01%
Total Residential Units

2,273
200,000
25.51%

150,000

100,000
74.49%

72.99%

67.68%

66.79%

69.48%

73.71%

73.47%

75.77%

79.47%

76.25%
50,000

0
Jun '13 Jun '14 Jun '15 Jun '16 Jun '17 Jun '18 Jun '19 Jun '20 Jun '21 Jun '22

Sold stock (% of total stock) Inventory for sale (% unsold stock) No of Projects Total Stock

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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 11 | Issue 2 | July 2022

INVENTORYAVAILABLE
INVENTORY
AVAILABLE
FOR SALE FOR SALE
Inventory available for sale at 74,818 units

At an overall level, the inventory available for sale is 74,818 apartments, 30%
below peak of 1,07,402 apartments seen in Jun ’16.

We have classified projects into 4 stages based on construction status i.e., Early,
Mid, End and Ready. Early stage inventory constitutes ~27% of all available units for
sale as on Jun ’22. The early stage inventory was at 19.12% a year ago, however
this has increased on account of the number of new projects and new inventory
launched in the last year.

Ready inventory constitutes 5.19% of the units available as on Jun ’22. Ready
inventory for sale has come down from 8,369 homes in Jun ’20 to 3,880 in Jun ’22.
This low level of ready inventory is also at historic lows. The End + ready inventory
now constitutes 6.5% as on Jun ’22 – 50% lower than what it was 5 years ago when
it constituted ~13%

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FIG. 2 - INVENTORY FOR SALE BY STAGES

89,887
70,000

104,452

86,900
100,012
107,402

75,421
59,468

79,546
104,565
60,000

80,062
79,760

74,818
91,281

53,418

73,000
52,413

71,778
54,913

59,224
47,899 54,765
50,000
46,296 51,261
50,363
43,140 44,691 49,156 49,597
67,614

47,867
66,683
55,684

45,078
39,120 43,360
51,725

40,000
33,657 40,919

28,571 34,878 32,300

29,718
30,000

21,107 21,581 20,337

24,789 22,349 19,166 19,650
20,000 15,431 22,757 17,822
15,778
17,633 15,589 10,091
7,345 8,692 8,849 8,760 9,005 9,439 8,418 11,321
10,000 7,857 6,746 7,543 7,967 8,064 7,430
5,382 5,709 5,261 4,435 3,880
4,098 3,691 8,369
7,498 2,469 2,351 2,048 1,925
4,826 5,918 6,120 1,723
3,921 4,862 5,648 3,947 4,620 1,004
-
3,343 2,402
Jun ‘13 Dec ‘13 Jun '14 Dec '14 Jun '15 Dec '15 Jun '16 Dec '16 Jun '17 Dec '17 Jun '18 Dec '18 Jun '19 Dec '19 Jun '20 Dec '20 Jun '21 Dec '21 Jun '22

Early Mid End Ready Total Inventory for Sale

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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 11 | Issue 2 | July 2022

PRICES
FIG. 3 - YEARLY PRICE MOVEMENTS

5,208
5,500 20.00%
5,075

4,984
4,910

4,817
4,786

4,685

4,644
5,000 15.00%

4,555
14.24%

4,464

4,500 10.00%

3.73%
3,970

3.36%
9.99%
12.44%

1.96%

8.11%
4,000 5.00%
-3.97%
-1.79%

-2.11%

-2.78%
3,475

3,500 0.00%

3,000 -5.00%
'Jul '10 - Jun '11

Jul '18 - Jun '19-

Jul '11 - Jun '12

Jul '12 - Jun '13

Jul '13 - Jun '14

Jul '14 - Jun '15

Jul '15 - Jun '16

Jul '16 - Jun -'17

Jul '17 - Jun '18

Jul '19 - Jun '20

Jul '20 - Jun '21

Jul '21 - Jun '22

12 month % change Average Price

The average prices of homes across the city have increased by 8.11% in the last
12 months. There is a rise in prices across the board especially in the new projects
where prices have gone up by ~ 24% in the last 12 months. 70 projects have
been launched in the Luxury segment (Average price `10,000+ Psf) which has
contributed to the significant rise in the average prices across the city.

TABLE 1 - NEW SUPPLY LAUNCHED AT HIGHER PRICES

(nos. are in ` psf except percentages)
Project Type Jun ’21 Jun ’22 Y-o-Y

New Projects 5,018 6,190 23.36%

New Phases 5,230 5,293 1.20%
Existing Projects 4,890 5,023 2.72%
Overall 4,817 5,208 8.12%

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REPLACEMENT
RATIO
The replacement ratio is the new supply added divided by the number of apartments
sold in a period of time. A replacement ratio of 1 indicates that demand and supply are
in consonance i.e. inventory being sold is being replaced by an equivalent amount of
new inventory. When the ratio is more than 1, supply is being added faster than sales
and when replacement ratio is less than 1, sales are faster than inventory addition.
Throughout the Covid period the replacement ratio was less than 1 indicating that sales
were higher than the inventory being added. This was immediately followed by a slew
of new launches that took this ratio to more than 1 in the subsequent periods. In the 6
months ended Dec ’21 and Jun ’22 the replacement ratio is 1.17 and 1.03 respectively,
indicating that supply is more than demand i.e. more units were being added than
taken out. Given the increase in the FSI potential for all lands, every property can deliver
more apartments per acre than ever before. Rapid launches of inventory without the
support of demand can lead to a challenging market for the industry again.

Table 2 - REPLACEMENT RATIO V/S PRICE | 12 MONTHS ENDED

12 MTHS ENDED Replacement Ratio Avg price psf

Jun '14 1.07 4909

Jun '15 1.25 5075
Jun '16 1.1 4984
Jun '17 0.95 4786
Jun '18 0.74 4685
Jun '19 0.97 4555
Jun '20 0.89 4644
Jun '21 0.76 4817
Jun '22 1.1 5208

11
12
4,500
4,600
4,700
4,800
4,900
5,000
5,100
5,200
5,300
Dec '13 4,806 1.031

Jun '14 4,909 1.101

Dec '14 1.054 5,061

Jun '15 5,075 1.455

Dec '15 1.230 5,096

Jun '16 0.982 4,984

Dec '16 1.018 4,900

Jun '17 4,786 0.869

Avg price psf

Dec '17 0.687 4,740

Jun '18 4,685 0.784

FIG. 4 - REPLACEMENT RATIO V/S PRICE
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 11 | Issue 2 | July 2022

Dec '18 4,582 0.984

Jun '19 4,555 0.952

Dec '19 4,530 1.167

Replacement Ratio
Jun '20 4,644
0.550
Dec '20 4,691 0.850

Jun '21 0.590 4,817

Dec '21 1.171

4,926
Jun '22 1.03 5,208
1.200

0.400
0.600
0.800
1.000
1.400
1.600
 Intellectual Property Rights Owned by Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. | www.gera.in

AFFORDABILITY
Affordability continues to be extremely attractive

Affordability levels have seen a slight reduction however, on an overall basis, the
affordability continues to be very strong at 3.61x annual income. Over time interest
rates and prices (from Dec ’14 onwards) have trended down, while incomes have
risen thereby increasing the affordability significantly. However, this cycle may
have bottomed out with home prices as well as interest rates rising. Input costs for
developers have forced developers to raise prices. Increasing interest rates and
inflation get the home buyer less per rupee and hence, the affordability equation
though still healthy can still create headwinds for developers.

FIG. 5 - AFFORDABILITY
6,000 5.50
5.13
5.00

5,208
5.30

5.27
5.26

5,500
4.75

5.00
4,926
4.70
4,464 5.09
5.06
5.02

4,817
4,740
4.51

4,691
4,685
4.89

4,644
4.83

5,000
4,582
4,555
4,530
5,096
5,075
5,061

4.50
4,984
4,910

4,900
4,211

4,806

4,786

4,500
4.37
3,970

4.25

4.00
3,666

4.02

4,000
3.91
3,475

3.79
3.71

3.68

3.50
3.64

3.61
3.56

3,500

3,000 3.00
Dec '11

Dec '12

Dec '13

Dec '14

Dec '15

Dec '16

Dec '17

Dec '18

Dec '19

Dec '20

Dec '21
Jun '11

Jun '12

Jun '13

Jun '14

Jun '15

Jun '16

Jun '17

Jun '18

Jun '19

Jun '20

Jun '21

Jun '22

Price (in ` psf) Affordability Index

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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 11 | Issue 2 | July 2022

We evaluated the salary needed to buy a home based on the then prices Psf in
Jun ’11 considering interest rates at that time. We then increased this salary based
on the consumer price index and compared the new cost of the home with the
increased salary. In Jun ’11, the salary needed to buy a 1,000 sq. ft. home was
4.83 times the cost of the home. This peaked in Dec ’14 where the salary needed
to buy the same 1,000 sq.ft. house at the increased salary and increased rates was
5.27 times. Since Dec ’14, the consistent reduction in interest rates and home prices
along with the salary increments have led to a situation where the house cost for a
1000 sq. ft home is now at 3.61 times the salary.

The other impact of affordability is that customers now can move to the bigger
developers who have the capabilities to deliver on promises. When affordability was
low, customers had no choice but to settle for a lesser known developers leading to
a fragmented market. Now, customers can afford to pay for homes by the reputed
branded developers and in many cases customers are paying a premium for
reputation and track record.

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INVENTORY
OVERHANG
Overall Inventory overhang shows a year on year decrease

TABLE 3 – INVENTORY OVERHANG

Segment Jun ’18 Jun ’19 Jun ’20 Jun ’21 Jun ’22

Total 12.49 9.75 10.03 8.32 8.50

Budget 9.67 7.77 7.3 6.67 7.86
Value 14.73 11.63 12.25 8.93 8.26
Premium 12.5 10.59 11.23 9.44 9.55
PremiumPlus 16.26 10.46 11.23 8.11 8.04
Luxury 20.59 16.43 13.03 11.88 9.67

The inventory overhang (based on the offtake rate for 6 months) has changed
marginally to 8.50 months. Of note is the improvement seen in the Luxury segment
where inventory overhang has halved from ~21 months 5 years ago to ~10 months
now. The fact that residential market has only 8.5 months of inventory left indicates
that the trend of new launches will continue in the near term.

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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 11 | Issue 2 | July 2022

NEW
LAUNCHES
New launches rise by 80% at an annual level

The effect of the pandemic has totally been eliminated when it comes to new projects
being launched.

Fresh supply launched remained at an elevated level and conclusively above precovid
levels for two consecutive 6 monthly periods in the running. For the half year ending
Jun ’21, a total of 26,611 units were brought to the market. This is risen by 106% to
54,845 homes being brought to market in the first half of 2022.

The new inventory brought to market over the last 12 months at 1,15,996 homes is
the highest 12 month new inventory ever introduced into the Pune market.

If compared with the previous 6 months - H1 2022 saw a drop in fresh supply with
54,845 units launched compared to the 61,151 units launched in the last 6 months
which is 10% lower than H2 2021. However, if the last 12 months is any indication
the new launch pipeline remains strong and operational metrics like the replacement
ratio and inventory overhang don't point to any red flags in the near term.

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FIG. 6 NEW UNITS LAUNCHED (Number of Units 6 monthly)

1,1
5,9
96
70,000
61,151
73
795 ,7 54,845
87,
60,000
52,631 03
50,000
46,910 64,617
41 0 40,485
40,000
56, 38,006
31,618
30,000 24,792
26,611
20,000
21,072
10,000

-
Dec '17 Jun '18 Dec '18 Jun '19 Dec '19 Jun '20 Dec '20 Jun '21 Dec '21 Jun '22

Looking at the yearly breakup of fresh inventory launched we can see that there
is an increase across the board with all markets posting high double digit and
triple digit growth rates led by Zone 5 with a massive spike of 272% in new units
launched. The least increases Y-o-Y are in Zone 4 (+49%) and Zone 2 (+58%) while
the maximum Y-o-Y increase is in Zone 5 (+272%). PCMC (Zone 6) accounted for
36% of all fresh supply launched in the last 12 months and has steadily increased its
share over the last 3 years in fresh supply. (For a detailed definition of micro markets
in each zone, see page 31 – Annexures).

TABLE 4 - NEW STOCK ADDED IN ZONES (Numbers in Units per year)

12 MONTHS ENDED
% change
Zone Jun ‘17 Jun ‘18 Jun ‘19 Jun ‘20 Jun ‘21 Jun ‘22 over Jun
‘21
1 10,632 6,351 11,851 9,291 9,062 17,657 95%
2 12,987 10,653 15,493 12,171 10,370 16,347 58%
3 14,645 10,420 13,956 7,988 4,400 10,019 128%
4 15,108 11,951 19,922 17,658 16,511 24,641 49%
5 2,234 2,300 1,810 3,288 1,371 5,100 272%
6 26,316 14,735 24,763 23,307 22,903 42,232 84%
Total 81,922 56,410 87,795 73,703 64,617 1,15,996 80%

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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 11 | Issue 2 | July 2022

TABLE 5 - ZONE WISE MARKET SHARE IN NEW STOCK ADDED (%’s)

12 MONTHS ENDED
% change over
Zone 2020 2021 2022
2021
1 13% 14% 15% 1.20%
2 17% 16% 14% -1.96%
3 11% 7% 9% 1.83%
4 24% 26% 21% -4.31%
5 4% 2% 4% 2.27%
6 32% 35% 36% 0.96%
Total 73,703 64,617 1,15,996

Looking at last 12 months of new launches by price segments, the biggest gains have
been in the PremiumPlus (Price between ` 6,355 Psf and ` 7,943 Psf) and Luxury
segments (Prices above ` 7,943 Psf) which have seen new supply growing at +144%
and +211% respectively. This is a continuation of the trend that we have seen in the past
as well. In 2015 this segment (PremiumPlus & Luxury) which accounted for merely 11%
share in new launches now accounts for 25% or 1/4th of all fresh supply launched. In
sharp contrast is the Budget + Value segment which accounted for 71% of fresh supply
in 2015 and now in 2022 share in fresh supply has dropped to 48%.

FIG. 7 - NEW UNITS LAUNCHED (Number of Units) | TRAILING 12 MONTHS

140,000

120,000 1,15,996
1,10,824
1,02,036
100,000
87,795
81,922
80,000 73,703

60,000
64,617
51,653
49,141 56,410
41,451
40,000
34,740 32,319
27,659
26,809 30,815
23,608 23,390 21,634
19,191 20524 23,862
20,000
20544
19,889 17822 13,199 20,740
10,392 16088 16347 15,469
7,831 7,929 13599 4,925 9,657
5,964 13,517 11,565 5,005 8,509
4,642 3,536 2,756 2,738 2926 2,658 8,260
0
Jul '14 – Jun'15 Jul '15 – Jun '16 Jul '16 – Jun '17 Jul '17– Jun '18 Jul '18 – Jun '19 Jul '19– Jun '20 Jul '20 – Jun '21 Jul '21– Jun'22

Budget Value Premium Premium Plus Luxury Overall

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Looking at the more granular 6 monthly growth data of new launches, we see the
same pattern of PremiumPlus and Luxury segments leading the fresh supply with
growth rates well into triple digits. The PremiumPlus segment saw a Y-o-Y increase
of 160% in the fresh supply launched while the Luxury segment did even better
clocking 287%. These are all strong indications of a customer base that has moved
up the value chain on a consistent basis and continues doing so.

TABLE 6 - NEW STOCK ADDED IN SEGMENTS

(Numbers in Units) | 6 MONTHS ENDED
% change
Zone Dec ‘19 Jun ‘20 Dec ‘20 Jun ‘21 Dec ‘21 Jun ‘22
over Jun’21

Budget 16,114 7,276 9,588 5,881 11,242 12,620 115%

(< ` 4236 psf)

Value 15,719 4,825 10,629 5,718 19,395 12,924 126%

(` 4237 psf-5296 psf)

Premium 9,365 3,834 11,333 10,301 15,154 15,661 52%

(` 5297 psf-6355 psf)

PremiumPlus 8,203 3,362 4,892 3,617 11,331 9,409 160%

(` 6356 psf-7943 psf)

Luxury 3,230 1,775 1,564 1,094 4,029 4,231 287%

(` 7943+)

Overall 52,631 21,072 38,006 26,611 61,151 54,845 106%

The following table also reiterates the premiumization that is happening in the last
3 years, comparing the share of projects launched in the PremiumPlus & Luxury
segment in 2019 ( Prepandemic) to 2022 we can see clearly that the share of new
projects launched in this segment has improved from 14% (136 projects out of
956 projects in 2019 ) to 27% (196 out of 720 projects) in the last 12 months. This
constitutes almost of a doubling of new projects in this segment.

TABLE 7 - SEGMENT WISE NEW PROJECTS LAUNCHED

(Number of Projects)
Budget Value Premium PremiumPlus Luxury
6 months ended (< ` 4236 psf)
(` 4237 psf- (` 5297 psf-
(` 6356 psf-7943 psf) (` 7943+)
Total
5296 psf) 6355 psf)

Jun ‘19 255 73 67 41 15 451

Dec ‘19 284 97 44 57 23 505
Jun ‘20 65 52 31 22 32 202
Dec ‘20 97 71 47 38 27 280
Jun ‘21 53 34 47 22 12 168
Dec ‘21 120 105 55 61 30 371
Jun ‘22 97 87 60 35 70 349

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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 11 | Issue 2 | July 2022

Looking at the 6 monthly data, we can clearly see that the new projects launched in
the Luxury segment have gone up by 367% compared to the same period 3 years
ago and an unprecented 70 have been launched in the 6 months ended Jun ’22.

FIG 8 - TREND OF NEW PROJECTS FIG 9 - TREND OF NEW PROJECTS

LAUNCHED | BUDGET SEGMENT LAUNCHED | LUXURY SEGMENT
300 80
70
255
DO 70
250 W
N
62 60
%
200 7%
50 36
UP
150 40

97 30
100
20 15
50
10

0 0
Jun '19 Jun '22 Jun '19 Jun '22

FIG 10 - SEGMENT WISE NEW PROJECTS LAUNCHED

100%
3% 5% 7% 8%
10%
9% 16% 20%
90%
11%
13%
14% 16%
80% 15% 9%
11%
% share in new projects launched

10%
70%
17% 15%
15% 28%
16% 19% 17%
60%

50%
25% 28%
26% 25%
40% 20%

30%
57%
56%
20%

32% 35% 32% 32%

10% 28%

0%
Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Jun-21 Dec-21 Jun-22

6 months ended
Budget Value Premium PremiumPlus Luxury

20
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Of particular note is the share of the 3 bedroom configuration in new launches which
has continued its surge, and now accounts for ~18% of all new units launched in
the last 12 months. 5 years ago in 2017 it was 5.5% . In the last 12 months 20,826
units have been launched in this segment, the highest ever in the last 5 years. The
share of 1BR has halved to 21% in the last 12 months from 48% 5 years back. The
most popular category remains 2 BHK accounting for 55% of all new units.

TABLE 8 - BREAKUP OF NEW UNITS LAUNCHED BY NUMBER

OF BEDROOMS (Number of Units)
12 MTHS ENDED 1BR 1.5BR 2BR 2.5BR 3BR 3.5BR 4BR Other Total

Jun ‘18 27,143 482 24,458 489 3,108 145 234 351 56,410
Jun ‘19 37,071 760 40,945 885 6,562 163 293 1,116 87,795
Jun ‘20 26,034 1,013 34,453 1,853 7,975 210 297 1,868 73,703
Jun ‘21 17,392 596 35,100 889 9,206 200 462 772 64,617
Jun ‘22 24,415 575 63,730 2423 20,826 477 1037 2513 1,15,996

FIG 11 - BREAKUP OF NEW UNITS LAUNCHED BY BEDTYPE (%)

100.0% 0.6% 1.3% 2.5% 1.2% 2.2%

5.5% 7.5%
0.9% 10.8%
1.0% 14.2%
18.0%
2.5% 1.4%
80.0%
2.1%
43.4%
46.6%
60.0% 46.7%
54.3%
0.9% 54.9%
0.9%
40.0%
1.4%

0.9%
48.1%
20.0% 42.2% 0.5%
35.3%
26.9%
21.0%

0.0%
Jul ‘17 – Jun ‘18 Jul ‘18 – Jun ‘19 Jul ‘19 – Jun ‘20 Jul ‘20 – Jun ‘21 Jul ‘21 – Jun ‘22

1B 1.5B 2B 2.5B 3B 3.5B 4B Other

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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 11 | Issue 2 | July 2022

SALES OVERVIEW
31% increase in Y-o-Y Sales volume in the last 6 months compared to the same
period in 2021

Comparing sales velocity in H1 2022 to H1 2021, there is a 31% increase in offtake

(from 40,669 units to 53,398 units). Sequentially (compared to H2 2021) the offtake
has gone up by 2% . When you look at how sales recovery responded after the 1st and
2nd covid wave we see that sales volume has sustained for the last 12 months even
after the 2nd wave effects have subsided.

The PremiumPlus and Luxury segment has done exceedingly well with high double
digit growth rates of 75% and 74%. The segment that is still underserved is the Budget
segment and one should expect to see an increased supply in this segment going
forward. At 53,398 units offtake at a six monthly level is the highest that we have seen
in the last 7.5 years. The least growth in offtake is seen in the Budget segment (+4%).

TABLE 9 - SALES OFFTAKE – 6 MONTHS ENDED

Growth over
Segment Dec '18 Jun '19 Dec '19 Jun '20 Dec '20 Jun '21 Dec '21 Jun '22 same period
last year
Total 41,562 49,273 45,110 38,018 44,709 40,669 52,227 53,398 31%
Budget 18,868 21,592 17,728 13,485 14,586 14,546 15,612 15,168 4%
Value 8,365 9,737 11,183 10,060 10,256 8,455 15,238 11,669 38%
Premium 5,862 8,999 7,802 7,133 11,344 11,004 10,581 14,897 35%
PremiumPlus 6,819 7,186 6,062 5,873 6,306 4,822 7,905 8,462 75%
Luxury 1,648 1,759 2,335 1,467 2,217 1,842 2,891 3,202 74%

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Looking at the last 12 months we see that sales volume has increased by 24%
compared to the pervious period with the maximum growth being registered by
the 1801-2000 sq.ft. size segment where sales have increased by 226%, followed
by the 1601-1800 sq.ft. segment where sales have gone up by 92%. Sales in the
lower size segments (<600 Sq.ft. & 600-800 Sq.ft.) have gone down by 14% and
2% respectively. From a unit size perspective the prognosis is clear, higher sizes are
witnessing a very sharp growth in offtake at a yearly level.

TABLE 10 - SALES OFFTAKE – 12 MONTHS ENDED

Market Market Market increase
Size Jun ‘20 Jun ‘21 Jun ‘22
share share share over 2021
Overall 83,128 100% 85,378 100% 1,05,625 100% 24%
< 600 20,251 24% 16,831 20% 14,476 14% -14%
600-800 16,743 20% 16,074 19% 15,752 15% -2%
801-1000 23,779 29% 26,026 30% 32,630 31% 25%
1001-1200 11,929 14% 14,254 17% 22,986 22% 61%
1201-1400 4,225 5% 5,759 7% 9,203 9% 60%
1401-1600 3,151 4% 3,421 4% 4,985 5% 46%
1601-1800 1,129 1% 1,178 1% 2,262 2% 92%
1801-2000 497 1% 407 0% 1328 1% 226%
2000+ 1,424 2% 1,428 2% 2,003 2% 40%

Market continues its trend towards larger projects

The number of large projects (those with more than 500 units) as on Jun ’22 is 177
which in Jun ’18 was 115. This absolute number has increased by 54% over the last 5
years. In Jun ’18, these 115 projects constituted ~3% out of the total of 3,472 projects
being developed. In Jun ’22, the 177 projects constituted 7% out of the total of 2,503
projects being developed.

Looking at the total inventory distributed across small projects (<=100 units)- only 15%
of the total inventory is in this segment. This used to be 30% 5 years ago. In contrast
large projects ( >=500 units) now constitute 11% of the total inventory in Pune.

Larger projects require greater amounts of capital as well as capability and therefore are
developed by larger developers. This again reiterates the continuation of the structural
trend of consolidation and shaking out of the smaller developers from the market.

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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 11 | Issue 2 | July 2022

FIG 12. NUMBER OF LARGE PROJECTS ( SIZE >500 UNITS)

177
180
156
160
138
140 128
115
120

100

80

60

40

20

0
Jun '18 Jun '19 Jun '20 Jun '21 Jun '22

TABLE 11 - DISTRIBUTION OF NUMBER OF PROJECTS BASED

ON APARTMENTS/PROJECT (As on 6 months ended)
Number of apartments
Jun ‘18 Jun ‘19 Jun ‘20 Jun ‘21 Jun ‘22
in the project

Less than Equal to 100 2,433 2,441 2,069 1,736 1,441

101-250 699 687 638 603 624
251-500 225 215 231 235 261
>500 115 128 138 156 177
Total 3,472 3,471 3,076 2,730 2,503

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FIG 13 NUMBER OF SMALL PROJECTS ( SIZE <=100 UNITS)

2,433 2,441
2,500
2,069
2,000 1,736

1,441
1,500

1,000

500

0
Jun '18 Jun '19 Jun '20 Jun '21 Jun '22

TABLE 12 - DISTRIBUTION OF PROJECTS BY SIZE

(As on 6 months ended)
Number of apartments in
Jun ‘18 Jun ‘19 Jun ‘20 Jun ‘21 Jun ‘22
the project

91,676 93,458 80,522 55,474 46,077

Less than Equal to 100
(30%) (31%) (26%) (19%) (15%)
94,262 90,277 88,032 83,593 90,903
101-250
(31%) (30%) (28%) (29%) (29%)
93,870 91,527 1,04,954 1,23,222 1,44,052
251-500
(31%) (30%) (34%) (43%) (45%)
22,783 26,469 37,734 26,161 34,056
>500
(8%) (9%) (12%) (9%) (11%)
Total 3,02,591 3,01,731 3,11,242 2,88,450 3,15,088

In the last few years we have seen customers migrating away from smaller developers
to bigger developers with a strong brand. This has led to an increase in the capacity
of reputed developers to launch large projects and also channelize this demand into
offtake. The above table shows the number of projects selling 500+ units in the last
12 months. This clearly indicates a consolidation in the market from both demand
and supply side. An unprecedented 19 projects have sold more than 500 units in
the last 12 months.

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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 11 | Issue 2 | July 2022

FIG 14. NUMBER OF PROJECTS WITH OFFTAKE >500 UNITS

12 MONTHS ENDED

19
20

18

16

14
12
12
9
10

8
6
6
4
4
1
2

0
Jun '17 Jun '18 Jun '19 Jun '20 Jun '21 Jun '22

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 Intellectual Property Rights Owned by Gera Developments Pvt. Ltd. | www.gera.in

HOME SIZE

FIG. 15 - AVERAGE SIZE OF UNITS LAUNCHED IN NEW PROJECTS

1,200
1,018
1,000 885 921 930
844 869
803 795
800

600

400

200

0
H1 2015 H1 2016 H1 2017 H1 2018 H1 2019 H1 2020 H1 2021 H1 2022

Home sizes have continued to increase with the average home sizes in new projects at
~1018 sq.ft. This is a reflection of the increase in the affordability as discussed above.

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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 11 | Issue 2 | July 2022

INVENTORY
VALUE AND
SQUARE FEET
Total value of unsold inventory at ` 44,500 Cr

FIG. 16 - VALUE OF INVENTORY FOR SALE (in ` Cr) & AREA (in Cr sq. ft. )

60,000 12
10.25
55,000
9.1 9.46 10
55,329

50,000

7.08 7.52 7.59 7.17

7.71 8
49,214
48,526

45,000
5.90 44,500
40,000 5.49 6
39,335
39,085

39,080

38,403
27,400

35,000
4
30,000
32,273

2
25,000

20,000 0
Jun '13 Jun '14 Jun '15 Jun '16 Jun '17 Jun '18 Jun '19 Jun '20 Jun '21 Jun '22

Value ( in Cr) Unsold area (in Cr Sq. ft.)

The total inventory available for sale has increased by 30% and now stands at 7.71
Cr sq. ft. while value of that inventory has increased to ` 44,500 Cr.

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CONCLUSION
Home affordability levels, at 3.61x annual income, are still strong though there has
been a slight reduction at an overall basis. 6 monthly sales volume has grown from
40,669 units to 53,398 units – a growth of 31% while at an annual level offtake
has risen by 24% from 85,378 units to 1,05,625 units. At an 12 month level, new
launches have risen by 80% from 64,617 in the previous period ( Jul ’20 to Jun ’21)
to 1,15,996 units in the current period (Jul ’21 to Jun ’22). This is an all-time high for
both offtake and fresh supply. The combined of this is that inventory available for sale
has increased by 26% from a year back to 74,818 units. PremiumPlus & Luxury units
lead the new launches as we head into H2 ’2022 and have shown a healthy growth
also in the offtake of 75% & 74%. Share of 3-bedroom configuration in new launches
has improved significantly from 5.5% in the 12 months ended Jun ’18 to 18% in
the last 12 months. Conversely, share of the 1-bedroom configuration has dropped
from ~48% in the 12 months ended Jun ’18 to ~21% in in the last 12 months. A
replacement ratio of 1.1 indicates that the demand and supply equation seems to be
in favour of supply – with supply being more than the demand at an annual level.
The wave of market consolidation continues with the Top 20 developers accounting
for 25% of the offtake.

The net impact of all these various moving parts is that prices have grown by 8.11%
at an annual level to Rs 5,208 psf thereby breaking into fresh highs for the first time
since peaking in 2015. We remain cautiously optimistic in the near term but there is
no denying that the Pune residential real estate market continues to be buoyant as we
head into the final leg of 2022.

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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 11 | Issue 2 | July 2022

ANNEXURES
TABLE 13 - PRICING CLASSIFICATION FOR EACH SEGMENT (in ` Psf)

SEGMENT Dec ‘13 Jun ‘14 Dec ‘14 Jun ‘15 Dec ’15 Jun ‘16 Dec ‘16 Jun ‘17 Dec ‘17

Budget < 4,000 4,122 4,247 4,144 4,060 3,991 3,899 3,808 3,719

Value < 5,000 5,152 5,309 5,180 5,076 4,989 4,873 4,760 4,649
Premium < 6,000 6,182 6,370 6,216 6,091 5,987 5,848 5,712 5,579
PremiumPlus
7,500 7,728 7,963 7,770 7,613 7,484 7,310 7,140 6,974
<
Luxury > 7,500 7,728 7,963 7,770 7,613 7,484 7,310 7,140 6,974

TABLE 13 - PRICING CLASSIFICATION FOR EACH SEGMENT (in ` Psf)

SEGMENT Jun ‘18 Dec ‘18 Jun ‘19 Dec ‘19 Jun ‘20 Dec ‘20 Jun ‘21 Dec ‘21 Jun ‘22

Budget < 3,633 3,728 3,705 3,685 3,777 3,814 3,917 4,007 4,236

Value < 4,541 4,659 4,631 4,606 4,721 4,767 4,897 5,009 5,296
Premium < 5,449 5,591 5,558 5,527 5,665 5,721 5,876 6,010 6,355
PremiumPlus
6,811 6,989 6,947 6,908 7,082 7,151 7,345 7,513 7,943
<
Luxury > 6,811 6,989 6,947 6,908 7,082 7,151 7,345 7,513 7,943

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Zone 1

Bokari | Bolhai | Dhanori | Ghorpadi | Kalas | Keshav Nagar | Kesnand | Kharadi | Koregaon
Bhima | Lohegaon | Lanikand | Mundhwa | Nagar Road | Ranjan Gaon | Sanaswadi | Shikra-
pur | Shirsatwadi | Talegaon | Dhamdhere | Viman Nagar | Vishrantwadi | Wadgaonsheri |
Wagholi | Yerwada

Zone 2

Bibvewadi | Fursungi | Gultekdi | Hadapsar | Kondhwa | Loni Kalbhor | Lulla Nagar |

Manjari | Market Yard | Undri | Mohammad Wadi | NIBM Road | Pisoli | Salisbury Park |
Saswad | Uruli Devachi | Uruli Kanchan | Wadki | Yavat | Yewalawadi

Zone 3
Ambegaon | Dhankawadi | Dhayari | Donje | Katraj | Khadakwasla | Khed Shivapur |
Kirkitwadi | Kolhewadi | Nanded | Kondhawe Dhawade | Narhe | Shivane | Uttam Nagar
| Warje

Zone 4
Ambadvet | Aundh | Balewadi | Baner | Baner Balewadi Road | Baner Pashan Link Road |
Baner Sus Road | Bavdhan | Bhugaon | Bhugawade | Bhukum | Chandkhed | Ghotawade
| Hinjewadi | Kasar Amboli | Mahalunge | Marunji | Nande | Pashan | Paud Road | Pimple
Gurav | Pimple Nilakh | Pimple Saudagar | Pirangut | Punawale | Sus | Sus Road | Tathawade
| Urawade | Wakad

Zone 5
Anand Nagar | Bhosale Nagar | Boat Club Road | Camp | City | Dattawadi | Erandwane
| FC Road | Fatima Nagar | Ganeshkhind Road | Gokhale Nagar | Gultekdi | Hingne
| JM Road | Kalyani Nagar | Karve Nagar | Khadaki | Parvati | Koregaon Park |
Kothrud | Mitra Mandal | Model Colony | Mukund Nagar | Padmavati | Peth | Prabhat
Road | SB Road | Sahkar Nagar | Satara Road | Shivaji Nagar | Sinhagad Road | Tilak
Road | Vadgaon BK | Wakadewadi | Wanowrie

Zone 6
Akurdi | Alandi | Alandi Road | Alandi-Dehuroad | Alandi-Moshi Road | Bhosari | Bhosari
Pradhikaran | Bhopkel | Chakan | Charholi | Chikhali | Chikhali Pradhikaran | Chimbali
| Chinchwad | Dange Chowk | Dapodi | Dehugaon | Dighi | Dedulgaon | Kalewadi |
Kasarwadi | Kamshet | Kanhe | Kiwale | Mamurdi | Moshi | Moshi Pradhikaran | Navi
Sangvi | Nigdi Pradhikaran | Phugewadi | Pimpri | Punewala | Rahatani | Ravet | Sanghavi
| Somatne Phata | Talawade | Talegaon | Thergaon | Wadgaon Maval | Wadmukhwadi

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The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report | Volume 11 | Issue 2 | July 2022

NOTES

32
Gera Developments Private Limited
200, Gera Plaza, Boot Club Road, Pune - 411001.
Tel.: +91 20 6680 7700.
Email: corporaterelations@gera.in | www.gera.in