ARTICLE IN PRESS

Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 2265–2280

Evaluation of recent glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

(AD 1962–1999): spatial distribution of mass loss and climatic forcing
Bryan G. Marka,, Geoffrey O. Seltzerb
a
Department of Geography and Byrd Polar Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210, USA
b
Department of Earth Science, Syracuse University, Syracuse, NY 13244-1070, USA
Received 28 August 2003; accepted 11 January 2005

Abstract

We use a combination of aerial photogrammetry, satellite imagery, and differential GPS mapping to quantify the volume of ice
lost between AD 1962 and 1999 from three glaciers on Nevado Queshque in the Cordillera Blanca, Perú (
101S). The largest
averaged surface lowering (thinning) occurred in the southwest aspect (22 m) and the least in the eastern aspect (5 m). A heuristic
sensitivity analysis indicates that 9.3 W m2 was required to melt the total observed ice loss and this can be explained by sensible heat
transfer related to a temperature rise of 1 1C, combined with a latent heat decrease related to a 0.14 g kg1 increase in specific
humidity. A first-difference analysis of temperature records from 29 stations in the Cordillera Blanca shows an average rising trend
of 0.26 1C per decade over the 37 year interval, more than adequate to supply the hypothesized sensible heat transfer. A simple
transmittivity model within a digital elevation model indicates solar radiation related to altered cloudiness was not a predominant
climatic forcing. The distribution of glacier area with altitude calculated with the digital terrain model explains the observed
asymmetrical ice melt.
r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction the energy balance in the thermally homogenous tropics

Progressive glacier recession in the Peruvian Andes
throughout the 20th century is well known (Petersen et
al., 1969; Kaser et al., 1990; Hastenrath and Ames,
1995a, b; Ames and Hastenrath, 1996; Francou et al.,
2000; Georges, 2004). However, interpreting the climatic
forcing causing such a change in the mass balance of
glaciers remains problematic. An abundance of recent
climate research has indicated that globally averaged
temperature in the last few decades of the 20th century
increased to levels unprecedented in at least the past
millenium (Mann et al., 1998), and alpine glaciers have
been shown to be sensitive recorders of global tempera-
ture signals (Oerlemans, 1994). However, the response
of tropical glaciers to climatic forcing is complex, and
glacier recession is likely to feature other components of
Corresponding author. Tel.: +1 614 247 6180.
E-mail address: mark.9@osu.edu (B.G. Mark).
(Kaser and Osmaston, 2002). Empirical studies of the
surface energy balance of tropical Andean glaciers imply
that while temperature may be strongly correlated to
glacier recession, it integrates many closely intercon-
nected surface energy-mass fluxes, and changes in
precipitation and humidity affecting mass balance
through altered all-wave radiation that actually controls
glacier mass balance (Wagnon et al., 1999; Francou
et al., 2003; Vuille et al., 2003). The Cordillera Blanca of
the Peruvian Andes has the greatest concentration of
tropical glaciers on earth. Yet the relative spatial
distribution of recent glacier recession has not been
thoroughly analyzed in terms of volume loss and
climatic forcing mechanisms. Thus, spatial analysis of
recent glacier recession in the tropical Andes is
warranted.
A previous analysis using aerial photography and an
equilibrium line altitude (ELA) model suggested that
glacier recession in the Cordillera Blanca between 1930

0277-3791/$ - see front matter r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2005.01.003
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
2266 B.G. Mark, G.O. Seltzer / Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 2265–2280
and 1950 could be explained partially by a spatially
uniform increase in air temperature, and that decreased
humidity was also involved (Kaser and Georges, 1997).
Lack of both climate data and volume loss information
prevented a differentiation of the relative influences of
other controls on glacier melt. Moreover, the study of
Kaser and Georges (1997) was limited in chronological
scope to the early mid 20th century.
Careful measurements of a single outlet glacier in
southeastern Perú (Brecher and Thompson, 1993;
Thompson, 2000) showed accelerated rates of recession
after 1962, suggesting a change or enhancement in the
climatic forcing. Specifically, it was suggested that
temperatures increased in the late 20th century, con-
sistent with ice core data (Thompson et al., 2000).
Further related climate research has demonstrated
interrelated mechanisms for late 20th century warming
of the troposphere: (1) mechanisms of enhanced
hydrologic cycling (Diaz and Graham, 1996); and (2)
anthropogenic influences and increased carbon dioxide
levels (Ramanathan, 1988; Hansen et al., 1998).
Other recent analyses of historical temperature records
have demonstrated that atmospheric temperatures
in the tropical Andes have increased over the last few
decades (Vuille and Bradley, 2000). However, further
direct observations of glacier volume loss over the
tropical Andean region are needed to establish the
spatial nature of recession and to test the relative impact
of climatic variables contributing to this negative mass
balance.
The aim of this work is to account for the spatial
distribution of glacier mass loss to test the hypothesis
that late 20th century glacier recession in tropical Perú
has been forced primarily by warmer tropospheric
temperature, with an associated increase in humidity.
While solar radiation is generally accepted as the
primary source of energy responsible for alpine glacier
melt (Oerlemans and Knap, 1998), its magnitude at the
glacier surface depends on the solar geometry, or the
orientation of a glacier relative to the sun and
surrounding topography. Any climate change that
would bring more shortwave direct radiation to the
surface of the glacier such as a decrease in cloudiness or
enhanced solar output could account for a net mass loss.
There is a lack of evidence for increases in solar
irradiance over the 37 years to account for the mass
loss (Lean and Rind, 1998; Lee et al., 2000). Yet glacier
recession forced primarily by solar radiation, or by
secondary effects interrupting the radiation balance
(i.e. differential shading due to cloudiness), would be
asymmetrical as a function of solar geometry. Con-
versely, warmer temperatures occurring throughout a
region would potentially override this geometrically
dependent solar influence and force more spatially
symmetrical glacier recession. Because tropospheric
temperature is distributed by elevation, the volume of
ice loss forced by a temperature increase would relate
more directly to the altitudinal distribution of glacier
mass, or glacier hypsometry, than to glacier orientation.
Previous small-scale studies of tropical glaciers in
South America and Africa provide important insights
and background data for this investigation. Energy
balance studies on a tropical glacier in Bolivia have
confirmed that the predominant energy input to a
tropical glacier surface is solar radiation (Francou et al.,
1995; Wagnon et al., 1999). Previous studies of tropical
glaciers in Africa (Hastenrath and Kruss, 1992; Mölg
et al., 2003a, b), and in Perú (Kaser and Georges, 1997),
have established that geometry-forced changes in
incident radiation can be a significant factor in the
energy available to melt tropical glaciers, and will result
in asymmetrical recession. These studies also established
that uniform spatial retreat of Kenyan glaciers after
1963 replaced the spatially variable recession of the early
20th century as a result of ‘greenhouse forcing’ involving
increased temperatures and absolute humidity.
This paper integrates new observations of mass loss
over 37 years in tropical glaciers with different orienta-
tions with a simulation of solar radiation and a
comparative review of tropical mass-energy balance
models. We begin in Section 2 with a review of the
geographic setting and glacier orientation in the
Cordillera Blanca, Perú, and then describe the data
and methods that were used in Section 3. In Section 4 we
present new measurements of glacier mass changes by
aspect from 1962–1999 observed in the Queshque
massif. Section 5 is subdivided in three parts to present
our analyses of climate variables responsible for forcing
the observed mass loss: part (1) includes a spatial
analysis of simulations to test the control of solar
radiation; parts (2) and (3) comprise a comparative
application of two different tropical glacier surface
mass-energy balance models. We include a new analysis
of temperature and precipitation records from this
important tropical region. In Section 6, we discuss the
model assumptions and implications of our climate
sensitivity study for explaining the observed spatial
distribution of mass loss, and we summarize the
principal conclusions in Section 7.
2. Geographic setting
The Queshque massif in the southern Cordillera
Blanca, Perú (91520 3000 S, 771150 0000 W), is an excellent
setting to evaluate recession of tropical glaciers with
different aspects. The Cordillera Blanca (Fig. 1) is the
largest and most northerly mountain range in Peru,
spanning over 130 km between 81 and 10 1S latitude,
with 27 summits over 6000 m in elevation (Ames, 1998).
These glacierized peaks sit along the Andean continental
divide, forming the headwaters of three principle
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14

12

10

°C
4

-2

-4
(a) Day

300 3.0

250 2.5

200 2.0
mm

150 1.5

°C
Fig. 1. Location map of the Cordillera Blanca. Shaded areas are
glacierized. 100 1.0

watersheds that drain either to the Atlantic or Pacific
oceans. The Santa and Pativilca Rivers flow to the
Pacific, capturing drainage from the western and south-
ern slopes of the Cordillera Blanca, while the drainage
from the eastern slopes to the Amazon Basin via the
Marañon River.
The climate is typical of tropical highlands (Hasten-
rath, 1991), featuring low thermal seasonality and highly
seasonal precipitation. Diurnal variations in tempera-
ture are typically greater than seasonal, while monthly
precipitation shows strong seasonal variation with most
precipitation falling during October through April
(Fig. 2). This seasonal climate regime confines mass
accumulation on the glaciers of the central Andes almost
exclusively to the wet season. However, ablation occurs
on glacial tongues throughout the year, and also reaches
a maximum during the wet season (Kaser and Osmas-
ton, 2002). Orography exerts a strong influence on the
precipitation distribution in the Cordillera Blanca, with
annual totals on the western side of the mountains two
to three times less than on the eastern, windward side
(Johnson, 1976).
The orientation of glaciers in the Cordillera Blanca is
controlled to a first order by the structural trend of the
Andes and also reflects regional gradients in precipita-
tion and solar radiation. The national inventory of
50 0.5
0 0.0
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
(b)
Fig. 2. (a) Daily temperatures recorded between July 6 and August 10,
1998 (days marked by vertical tics) at station next to Glaciar
Yanamarey at 4600 m in the Cordillera Blanca, showing diurnal
variability up to 14 1C; (b) composite graph of monthly mean
precipitation (shown with columns, left axis) and temperature (shown
with line, right axis) for course of hydrological year (Sep–Aug)
measured at same location over 11 years of available data (1981–1990,
1998).
glaciers (Ames et al., 1989) shows that glaciers with a
southwest aspect are the most numerous and largest,
20% of total glacier area in the Cordillera Blanca
(Table 1). The NW–SE strike of the mountain range
explains this distribution generally, while diurnal shad-
ing during the wet season favors the growth of larger
glaciers to the south and west. Over the entire Cordillera
Blanca, average glacier termini elevations are lowest in
watersheds that drain the eastern side of the divide to
the Marañon River, reflecting the easterly source of
moisture. Generally, ELAs rise from lower altitudes in
the east to higher altitudes in the west as a function of
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Table 1
Summary of glacier inventory data for the Cordillera Blanca and Queshque watersheds, southern Cordillera Blanca, separated by glacier aspect (data
from Ames et al., 1989). Also included are the modeled average annual clear-sky insolation values (W m2)

N NW W SW S SE E NE Total

Cordillera Blanca (Aver)

Number of glaciers 72 108 84 100 119 107 54 78 722
Area (km2) 63 97 97 146 78 76 51 115 723
Area (%) 9 13 13 20 11 11 7 16
Aver area (km2) 1.11 0.81 1.13 1.54 0.71 0.65 0.61 1.19 (0.58)
Aver max elev (m) 5498 5420 5453 5448 5369 5442 5570 5586 (5473)
Aver mean elev (m) 5165 5097 5072 5028 5039 5132 5223 5207 (5120)
Aver min elev (m) 4896 4845 4778 4698 4806 4907 4977 4900 (4851)
Aver ann clear-sky insolation (W m2) 262 262 254 239 225 236 253 263 (249)
Queshque Watersheds, S Cordillera Blanca
Number of glaciers 8 33 11 19 25 27 8 12 143
Area (km2) 3 19 7 17 14 6 3 3 73
Area (%) 4 26 10 23 19 9 4 4
Aver area (km2) 0.41 0.57 0.67 0.88 0.56 0.23 0.36 0.26 (0.49)
Aver max elev (m) 5475 5310 5300 5237 5281 5235 5331 5250 (5302)
Aver mean elev (m) 5228 5090 5064 4957 5012 5069 5078 5087 (5073)
Aver min elev (m) 5011 4884 4848 4760 4824 4925 4896 4953 (4887)
Aver ann clear-sky insolation (W m2) 276 275 265 252 238 247 265 276 (262)

precipitation gradients, but diurnal convection patterns 3. Data and methods

cause a zonal asymmetry in the radiation balance (Kaser
and Georges, 1997). In regions where glaciers are more
sensitive to this diurnal radiation imbalance, individual
glaciers with western aspects reach lower altitudes
locally.
In this context, the spatial extent of Queshque glaciers
in 1962 seemed to be more sensitive to solar radiation
than regional precipitation. The national glacier inven-
tory, based largely on 1962 aerial photography,
recorded 143 glaciers in the watersheds surrounding
the Queshque massif with an average mean glacier
altitude of about 5070 m, and associated averaged
maximum and minimum elevations of 5300 m and
4890 m, respectively (Table 1). It is important to note
that the mean elevation here is area-weighted, represent-
ing the ‘‘elevation of the contour line that divides the
surface area of the glacier into two equal parts’’ (Ames
et al., 1989). When sorted by aspect (orientation of the
ablation zones, identified by the position of the snowline
in aerial photographs), those glaciers with southwest
aspects had the lowest average terminal elevations and
largest average areas. The three Queshque glaciers
studied here had 1962 terminal elevations of: 4800
(east); 4675 (southwest); and 4725 (south). The central
question considered here is: from a base position of
1962, what has the spatial pattern of glacier recession
been for the last 40 years? It is important to consider
how recent recession has changed the volume, in
addition to area, of these glaciers facing different
directions so that the sensitivity to climatic parameters
can be tested.
3.1. Digital surfaces
A 100 m digital elevation model (DEM) of the entire
Cordillera Blanca was constructed within an ArcInfoTM
geographical information system using digitized contour
lines (200 m interval) from 1:100,000 scale topographic
maps published by the Peruvian Instituto Geografico
Nacional to provide a regional base map for the
analysis. A 30 m grid cell DEM generated using digitized
contours (25 m interval) from 1:25,000 scale topographic
maps published by the Instituto de Agricultura covered
the area of the Queshque massif. The DEMs were
geocoded to UTM zone 18.
The glacier surfaces were reconstructed with digital
models for two different years that had available
topographical control. Continuous surfaces were ren-
dered for the glacier surfaces using both interpolated
regular spaced values (GRID) and triangular irregular
network (TIN) of unevenly spaced points. Vertical aerial
photographs taken on 12 July 1962 provided the basis
for a model of the 1962 glacier surfaces. An expert
operator (H. Brecher) produced a digital restitution of
discrete point elevations over the three glaciers from the
stereographic model at a 30-m spacing using a Wild B8
analog plotter (i.e. Brecher and Thompson, 1993). Both
the TIN and GRID algorithms within ArcInfo inter-
polated the good point elevations into continuous 15 m
resolution DEMs.
Differentially corrected GPS point elevation measure-
ments with as near to a 100 m grid spacing as possible
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comprised the basis for a model of the 1999 glacier
surfaces (Fig. 3). Most readings came from the lower
reaches of the glaciers due to limited sky visibility and
crevasse danger at higher altitudes. The generation of
continuous digital surfaces utilized only those points
that were able to be corrected differentially. Since GPS
point elevations were sampled irregularly across the
glacier surface, the TIN model was chosen as more
accurate. The use of a TIN model to study glacier
surface changes with GPS measurements has been
affirmed by other research (Jacobsen and Theakstone,
1997), and using a TIN is preferable in high relief areas
(Gong et al., 2000).
3.2. Glacier volume change
The elevation difference between the two digital
glacier surfaces computed at each grid cell and multi-
plied by the area of the grid cell (15 m2) yielded the
change in glacier volume between 1962 and 1999. The
accuracy of volume calculation from DEM’s is still not
well understood and varies with different surface models
and resolution (Yanalak and Baykal, 2003). We there-
fore used the range of different digital surface models
(both TIN and GRID interpolations for the 1962 glacier
surfaces, and TIN for the 1999 surfaces) to compute a
range of total volume, and selected the smallest total
volume difference as a conservative estimate. Dividing
the total volume loss by the mean surface area covered
by glaciers between 1962 and 1999 supplied the mean
surface lowering (m). Outlines of the glacier surfaces
were digitized as polygons for each year. Stereo-paired
aerial photographs delimited the glacier boundaries
in 1962, while GPS measurements made in the field in
1998 and 1999 augmented by a 1997 SPOT panchro-
matic satellite image (10 m resolution) delimited the

Fig. 3. Contour map (interval ¼ 200 m) of the glacierized areas on the Queshque massif. Three tones of gray shading represent: 1999 glacier areas of
the 3 studied glaciers with different aspects (light); the 1962 glacierized areas of the three studied glaciers mapped from aerial photography (dark);
and other glacierized areas mapped from 1997 SPOT imagery (medium). Dots represent GPS-mapped surface elevations from 1999. Dashed lines are
ridges separating the major drainages.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
2270 B.G. Mark, G.O. Seltzer / Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 2265–2280
boundaries of the glaciers in 1999. The satellite image
was geo-referenced to the digitized contour lines and
map features on the 1:25,000 base used in the 30 m DEM
using a first order polynomial transformation in Arc
Info, which yielded a residual root mean square error
of 15 m.
3.3. Equilibrium line altitude change
The observed changes in glacier dimension also
allowed an estimation of a change in the ELA between
1962 and 1999 for each glacier. The ELA rise represents
the positive elevation change between the ELAs for both
1962 and 1999 (ELA 1999–ELA 1962). The accumula-
tion area ratio (AAR) was used to compute ELAs,
where the ELA is positioned to define an accumulation
area of appropriate size relative to total surface area.
A lack of actual mass balance measurements pre-
cluded an empirical test of appropriate AAR values.
Instead, values from other regional studies created a
range of possible ELA changes: (1) following the work
of Kaser and Georges (1997), a typical AAR for tropical
glaciers is 0.75; (2) 78 modern glaciers in Bolivia
(Jordan, 1991) average an AAR of 0.67; and (3) prior
work on the Peruvian glacier inventory (Ames et al.,
1989) and on Peruvian snowlines (Dornbusch, 1998)
utilized an AAR of 0.5 to calculate median glacier
altitudes in this region.
3.4. Regional climate trends
Available historical temperature and precipitation
data gathered from Peruvian organizations were ana-
lyzed for trends over the late 20th century. Monthly
mean temperature records from all available stations in
the latitudinal range of the Cordillera Blanca (9–11 1S)
were incorporated (n ¼ 29). Since few of the records
share a common and adequately continuous time-frame
to be used as a reference period, we established a
regional temperature time series using the first difference
method, following the procedure described by Peterson
et al. (1998) and used by Vuille and Bradley (2000). To
make the time series more readily comparable to other
records, the reference period was set to the 30-year
interval 1961–1990, commonly used in global climato-
logical networks (Peterson and Vose, 1997). We created
a regional standardized anomaly time series from annual
station totals of precipitation. Since precipitation is less
spatially uniform, and the amplitude of change is
elevation dependent, only records from those stations
above 3000 m.a.s.l. were included (n ¼ 45). For each
year of each station, an annual anomaly was calculated
as the difference between the annual total and the long-
term mean of the reference period (1972–1980, repre-
senting the longest stretch of time covered by all of the
stations). The time series was normalized by dividing the
annual precipitation anomalies by the standard devia-
tion. Finally, this normalized time series was averaged
over all of the available stations for each year to create a
regionally averaged time series from 1953–1998. Simple
linear regression was used to evaluate the time series for
any trends.
3.5. Solar radiation simulation
The TopoView version 1.1 solar radiation model by
Hemi software simulated the shading effect of surround-
ing topography and computed average irradiance for the
Queshque glacierized areas. The model calculates global
insolation (sum of direct and diffuse radiation) at each
grid cell of a DEM surface over any time interval (Fu
and Rich, 2000), utilizing hemispherical viewsheds to
account for sky obstruction based on the geometry of the
DEM (Rich et al., 1994). A simple transmission model
(List, 1971; Gates, 1980; Pearcy, 1989; Rich, 1989, 1990)
is implemented to compute direct solar radiation from
the solar constant, accounting for latitude, atmospheric
effects based on transmittivity and air mass depth.
Diffuse radiation is computed using a uniform overcast
sky algorithm (Rich, 1989, 1990; Pearcy, 1989).
To evaluate the relative impact of solar radiation
geometry over the late 20th century, average annual
insolation was modeled for three different areas on each
of the glaciers, representing the glacier surfaces for both
1962 and 1999, as well as the area vacated by the ice
between these dates. A simple case modeled annual
averaged global insolation under cloud-free skies such
that the diffuse component was reduced to zero. A second
case computed glacier averaged annual global radiation,
adjusted to include cloudy skies during rainy months
using two scenarios with different integration times. In
scenario 1, glacier averaged global radiation under
completely cloudy conditions integrated over the humid
months (Oct–Apr) was averaged with clear sky radiation
for the dry months (May–Sep). In scenario 2, diurnal
variations in cloud cover for a characteristic humid
season month were modeled to account for the afternoon
convection responsible for the majority of precipitation in
the humid summer months, commonly cited as a control
over glacier elevation in these tropical mountains (Kaser
and Georges, 1997). Global radiation values under clear
skies during the morning daylight hours (06:00–12:00)
were summed with values for cloudy skies during the
afternoon (12:00–18:00) and integrated daily over the
humid month of March, and the mean taken with clear
sky values integrated over the month of July.
4. Magnitude of glacier changes: 1962–1999
The three glaciers all lost volume, amounting to an
estimated total of 57  106 m3 between 1962 and 1999, as
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summarized in Table 2. The southwest facing Queshque high standard deviation of 37 m is a reflection of the
Main glacier lost the greatest estimated volume of overall variability in ELA rise estimates.
glacier ice, 49  106 m3, 85% of the total volume loss. To
compare the different amounts of volume loss between
the glaciers, a mean surface lowering was calculated by
5. Climatic sensitivity
dividing the volume loss by the mean surface area
between 1962 and 1999. The southwest facing Queshque
Different forcing mechanisms are considered to
Main glacier also had the greatest mean surface
explain the negative mass balance associated with the
lowering at 22 m, compared to the 5 m lowering of both
changes in glacier dimension observed between 1962 and
the south facing Mururaju and east facing Queshque
1999. First, we analyze the results of our solar radiation
East glaciers. The total volume of ice loss represents the
simulation in relation to the spatial distribution of mass
lower in a range of modeled values from 56  106 to
loss to consider the role of insolation changes. Then, we
84  106 m3, which gives a range of error estimate that
evaluate the possible climate variables involved by
accounts for model based variances in surface inter-
applying two different tropical glacier surface energy
polation method and point resolution.
balance models, based on both the change in average ice
Estimates of ELA rise show a wide range of values
thickness (after the procedure of Hastenrath and Kruss,
(Table 3), extending from a minimum of 25 m for the
1992) and the change in ELA (after Kaser and Georges,
Mururaju glacier (AAR ¼ 0.5) to a maximum of 125 m
1997).
for Queshque East (AAR ¼ 0.75). There is not a
consistent trend for each glacier with respect to different
AARs. With successively higher AARs, ELA rise 5.1. Solar radiation
decreases in magnitude for the Queshque Main glacier,
but increases for the Queshque East and Mururaju Spatially averaged annual clear sky insolation values
glaciers. Moreover, the sequence of ELA magnitude for the entire Cordillera Blanca sorted by aspect show a
varies with different AAR; when an AAR of 0.5 is minimum amount for glacierized areas with southern
applied, the Queshque Main glacier shows the greatest aspects, and a maximum for northern aspects (Table 1).
relative change in ELA (100 m), while for the other There is a positive correlation (r ¼ 0:59) with mean
AARs considered (0.67 and 0.75), Queshque East shows glacier elevation by aspect, as documented with data
the largest ELA rises. Considering all estimates for each from the Peruvian glacier inventory, suggesting a strong
glacier, the average ELA rise is ordered greatest to least radiation control over ELA. The mean averaged annual
as follows: Queshque East (102 m); Queshque Main insolation values are slightly higher for the southern
(82 m); and Mururaju (33 m). Averaging all estimates Cordillera Blanca, where the Queshque glaciers are
yields an estimate for a regional ELA rise of 72 m. The located, than for the entire Cordillera, but show the

Table 2
Summary of glacier dimensions and changes between 1962 and 1999 by aspect including dimensions of surface area, volume loss, and mean surface
lowering

Glacier Aspect 1962 area, 1999 area, 1962–99 mean 1962–99 area 1962–99 area DEM volume 1962–99 surface
103 m2 103 m2 area, 103 m2 change, 103 m2 change, % change, 103 m3 lowering, m
(%) year1

Queshque Main SW 2666 1728 2197 938 (35) 0.95 48951 22

Queshque East E 509 305 407 204 (32) 0.86 2215 5
Mururaju S 1305 852 1079 453 (35) 0.95 5441 5

Table 3
Summary of modeled averaged clear sky insolation (over 1962 areas), and ELA rise (ELA1999–ELA1962) with average (Av) and standard deviation
(sd) of all AAR estimates for all the glaciers

Glacier Aspect Averaged annual clear sky insolation ELA rise (m) by AAR
(W m2) 0.5 0.67 0.75

Queshque Main SW 244 100 80 65

Queshque East E 259 60 120 125
Mururaju S 251 25 35 40
Av(sd) 72 (37)
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same variation by aspect and higher correlation with 400

mean glacier elevation (r ¼ 0:68).
Clear sky direct insolation integrated over a full year 395
and averaged over the 1962 glacier surfaces shows a
390
minimum flux density of 244 W m2 for the Queshque
Main glacier of southwestern aspect, and a maximum of
385
259 W m2 for the Queshque East glacier of eastern

Wm-2
aspect (Table 3). The 1962 mean glacier elevations on 380
the Queshque massif closely follow the distribution of
glacier-averaged clear sky insolation, further indicating 375
a strong influence of solar radiation geometry on the
Queshque glaciers. 370
All three eastern facing areas uniformly receive the
greatest mean annual clear-sky radiation values (Fig. 4). 365
The southwest and east facing glaciers feature a similar
360
decrease in mean annual radiation from 1962 to 1999,
Quesh Main Quesh East Mururaju (S)
while the maximum values for each aspect appear over (a) (SW) (E)
the glacier area exposed between 1962 and 1999.
However, the mean annual radiation values for the 305
south facing Mururaju glacier increase from 1962 to
1999 and are at a minimum over the area exposed 300
between the dates. This opposite trend shows that the
glaciers remaining more protected by steeper valley 295
walls (east and southwest aspect) have retreated to more
enclosed areas, while the south facing Mururaju glacier 290
lacks protective shading in its upper region, and is thus
Wm-2

becoming exposed to more intense annually averaged 285

radiation over time. Both model scenarios simulating
280
the impact of seasonal cloudiness on total radiation over
the Queshque glaciers featured an increase in the 275
radiation for the southern aspect, but not for the
southwestern (Fig. 5). Thus, the modeled distribution of 270

265
1962 area 1999 area 1962-99 area
Quesh Main Quesh East Mururaju (S)
265
(b) (SW) (E)

260 Fig. 5. Mean annual solar radiation flux (W m2) averaged over 3
different areas for each of the Queshque glaciers (same color scheme as
255 Fig. 4) under 2 different simulations of cloudy sky conditions, each
graphed with a different vertical range. (a) Cloud scenario 1: average
250 annual flux between clear sky conditions during the months of May-
September and cloudy conditions during October–April; (b) Cloud
Wm-2

scenario 2: average between daily integrated monthly flux for March

245
and July; March days featured clear-sky conditions in the mornings
(06:00–12:00) and cloudy conditions during the afternoons
240 (12:00–18:00), and July days had clear skies.

235
averaged radiation receipt does not match the observed
230 pattern of maximum ice loss.
By comparing the average surface lowering of the
225 glaciers to the amount of radiation received, it is clear
Quesh Main Quesh East Mururaju (S) that there is not a positive relationship (Fig. 6). On the
(SW) (E) contrary, the insolation is negatively correlated to
surface lowering. A second estimate of surface lowering
Fig. 4. Mean annual clear sky solar radiation flux (W m2) averaged
over three different areas for each of the Queshque glaciers, based on the change in surface area (after Chen and
representing the glacier surface areas for both 1962 and 1999, as well Ohmura, 1990) confirms this negative trend, showing
as the area vacated by the ice between these dates (1962–99). a more directly inverse relationship to insolation.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
B.G. Mark, G.O. Seltzer / Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 2265–2280 2273

Radiation geometry alone therefore does not seem to be change of 57  106 m3 over a sum of mean glacier areas
a controlling factor in the glacier volume loss between totaling 4  106 m2 corresponds to a mean thickness
1962 and 1999. change of about 15 m over 37 years, or 415 mma1. As
this loss is mostly glacial ice combined with some dense
5.2. Model 1: change in average thickness firn and snow, a mean density of 850 kg m3 is
considered reasonable. This translates to an average
Because the Queshque glaciers consistently main- mass loss of 353 mm a1 liquid water equivalent.
tained a negative mass balance throughout the observa- The strongly negative mass balance between 1962 and
tional period, the total ice mass loss over the 37 year 1999 could theoretically be caused entirely by a decrease
period can be seen as a net mass deficit attributable to a in accumulation to the glacier. If accumulation is
net energy gain to the glacier surface. A total volume assumed to be exclusively precipitation, the total glacier
mass loss thus amounts to a decrease in water equivalent
25
precipitation of 353 mma1. However, high elevation
DEM
precipitation data from Perú show no significant trend,
and do not support such a change over the observational
SA
20 period (Fig. 7). A more reasonable explanation for the
observed ice thinning must be sought in the terms of the
Quesh Main
Surface lowering (m)

(SW) energy budget by considering the total latent heat

15 involved in this phase change.
Given the latent heats of sublimation (Ls ¼
284  104 J kg1) and of melting (Lm ¼ 33  104 J kg1),
10 the energies required to remove a 15 m thick layer of ice
over the course of 37 years amounts to 32 W m2 for
sublimation and 3.7 W m2 for melting. Hastenrath’s
5
(1984) measurements on the equatorial Lewis Glacier in
Mururaju Quesh East
(E)
Kenya established that sublimation is of subordinate
(S)
0 importance in the mass, but not energy, budget of
240 245 250 255 260 tropical glaciers. Recent measurements on the tropical
-2 Zongo Glacier of Bolivia show that the relative
Insolation (Wm )
significance of sublimation changes seasonally, account-
Fig. 6. Mean annual solar radiation flux (W m2) verses average ing for 8% to 50% of the total ablation in the humid to
surface lowering (m) calculated for the three Queshque glaciers, dry seasons, respectively. Over the entire hydrological
identified by name. Volume loss calculated from both the digital
year, sublimation amounted for less than 20% of total
elevation model (DEM) and a second estimation (SA) where the
change in volume is computed as a function of change in surface area, ablation (Wagnon et al., 1999). If the measured loss of
using the formula of Chen and Ohmura (1990), are normalized by the ice is proportioned accordingly such that 20% is
average glacier surface areas between 1962–1999. assumed lost to sublimation, the total energy required

2.0

1.0
mm

0.0

-1.0

-2.0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year

Fig. 7. Normalized anomalies (explained in text) of annual precipitation totals (mm) from 45 Peruvian stations above 3000 m a.s.l. between 1953 and
1998. Vertical bars extend 2 standard errors of the mean on either side of the annual averaged anomaly.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
2274 B.G. Mark, G.O. Seltzer / Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 2265–2280
amounts to 9.3 W m2. This is a conservative estimate,
since in the more humid environment of the Cordillera
Blanca the energy-intensive sublimation is probably less
than the 20% estimated for the Zongo Glacier in the
drier Cordillera Real, Bolivia.
It is reasonable in this discussion to consider only the
balance of surface energy exchanges and not heat
storage to the glacier beneath the surface (Oerlemans,
1992), so that all incoming energy is assumed to be
radiation and sensible and latent heat from the atmo-
sphere. A simple energy balance B at the glacier surface
can likewise be expressed as the sum of radiative and
turbulent fluxes such that:
B ¼ SW "# þLW "# þQe þ Qs ,
where the radiative fluxes of net shortwave radiation
(SWmk) and net longwave radiation (LWmk) are
considered with the turbulent fluxes of latent (Qe ) and
sensible heat (Qs ). Fluxes are positive if directed towards
the surface, and negative if directed from the surface.
Because the energy balance is considered here to affect
solely the mass budget, the glacier surface is assumed to
remain constantly at melting conditions, with tempera-
ture at 0 1C, and air directly above it at 100% relative
humidity, as is commonly prescribed in similar studies
(Hastenrath and Kruss, 1992; Oerlemans, 1992; Has-
tenrath and Ames, 1995a; Kaser and Georges, 1997).
Because solar radiation is the most effective source of
energy to the glacier surface, any change that might
increase the SWmk to the surface could force significant
mass loss. However, such an effect should also cause a
differential thinning of the glaciers in accordance with
the radiation geometry; as shown, the solar geometry
does not account for the observed spatial pattern of
melt. Therefore, the SWmk term is considered neutral.
Simplified bulk aerodynamic formulations of turbu-
lent flux terms taken from Hastenrath and Kruss (1992)
are used to test the sensitivity of these terms under
representative conditions. Bulk aerodynamic equations
for sensible (Qs ) and latent heat transfer (Qe ) across the
glacier-air interface define:
Qs ¼ C p rC D ðT a  T 0 ÞV ,
Qe ¼ Ls rC D ðqa  q0 ÞV ,
where C p ¼ 103 J kg1 K1 is the specific heat of air at
constant pressure, r ¼ 0:740 kg m3 is air density at
580 mb and 0 1C, reasonable for melting glaciers at the
altitude of the Cordillera Blanca. C D is the drag
coefficient describing the roughness of the glacier
surface, here about 2  103. T is temperature and q is
specific humidity, with the subscripts ‘‘0’’ and ‘‘a’’
referring to ice surface and air at about 2 m above the ice
surface, respectively. The vertical gradients of tempera-
ture and humidity determine the magnitude and sign of
the energy fluxes such that sensible heat is typically
positive, directed toward the glacier surface, while the
latent heat flux is negative, directed away from the
surface. V is the wind speed, assumed to be 5 ms1.
Values for wind speed and the drag coefficient are only
known approximately, but the values selected here have
been shown to apply to tropical glaciers in the
Cordillera Blanca (Hastenrath and Ames, 1995a) and
on Mt. Kenya (Hastenrath and Kruss, 1992).
By assuming that the melting glacier surface is at 0 1C,
the air temperature is +1 1C, and relative humidity is
about 80%, then typical values for Qs and Qe are about
7 and 20 W m2, respectively. In the most extensive
instrumental energy balance study over a tropical glacier
to date, mean turbulent fluxes measured over 521 days
(1)
compare very closely with estimated fluxes of 6 and
17 W m2 for sensible and latent heat respectively, and
mean wind speed similar at 3 m s1 (Wagnon et al.,
1999). However, it should be noted that the same study
observed large seasonal variation in the roughness of the
glacier surface. There could be significant intraseasonal
variation in energy flux if the assumed constant C D
values are varied.
Net longwave radiation is formulated similarly to the
equation cited above by Budyko (1958) such that:
LW "#¼ sT 4a ð0:39  0:05 e1=2 Þð1  0:53 C 2 Þ, (4)
where  is emissivity, taken here as 0.95, s is the
Stephan-Boltzmann constant (567  1010 W m2 K4),
e is vapor pressure in mbar, T a is air temperature in K,
and C is a term for fractional cloudiness. Considering
the same conditions of T a ¼ þ1 1C and relative humid-
ity at 80% (equivalent to e ¼ 5:4 mbar), with a cloudi-
ness of C ¼ 0:5; the resulting typical value for net
longwave radiation has a magnitude of about 70 W m2.
This flux is generally directed away from the glacier
surface (Oke, 1987).
Using the above assessment of typical magnitudes,
Hastenrath and Kruss (1992) considered the effect of
small changes in environmental conditions on each flux
term, Qs ; Qe ; and LWmk. The equation for sensible heat
defined above indicates that an increase in air tempera-
ture of 0.1 1C causes an increment of 0.7 W m2. Every
(2)
0.1 g kg1 increase in specific humidity of the air relative
to the surface would cause the latent heat flux to
(3)
decrease by 2 W m2. Net longwave radiation is a bit
more complicated. Simply raising the cloudiness by 10%
causes a lowering of net radiation by 4 W m2, but such
a loss would likely be more than compensated in the net
radiation term by the decrease in shortwave direct
radiation caused by the shading effect of increased cloud
cover. Isolating the effect of atmospheric humidity by
incrementing q by 0.1 g kg1 translates to a reduction of
LWmk by 0.2 W m2.
The potential impact of these changes in energy
fluxes to the Queshque glacier surfaces must be
considered in terms of observed trends in climate
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
B.G. Mark, G.O. Seltzer / Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 2265–2280
variables. Specifically, temperature and humidity are
considered to explore the extent various heat budget
processes may contribute to the prospective 9.3 W m2
of net energy gain to the glaciers.
Historical temperature records from the region show
a significant rise over the observation period that would
affect the sensible heat flux. A regression of the
normalized temperature anomaly series from 1951 to
1999 shows an average rate of warming of 0.39 1C per
decade (Fig. 8). If the trend between 1962 and 1999 is
considered, the average rate of warming is reduced to
0.26 1C per decade. Considering this rate over the 37
years, the total sensible heat contribution would amount
to over 6 W m2 for a warming of close to 1.0 1C.
The effect of humidity on the latent heat flux is also
important to consider. From the calculations above, it is
noted that an increment of less than 0.5 g kg1 in specific
humidity would alone account for the total observed ice
thinning. No direct humidity measurement data from
the region exist. Other observations do indicate an
increase in humidity in the global tropics. Levels of
water-vapor content have shown an increase in the
middle troposphere of the tropics (Flohn et al., 1990).
Water vapor feedback effects may also account for
enhanced warming of the middle troposphere (Diaz and
Graham, 1996). It is also apparent that an increase in
temperature raises the saturation vapor pressure, caus-
ing a rise in specific humidity under the controlling
assumption of constant relative humidity. Data com-
piled from terrestrial observations in the Climate
Research Unit (New et al., 2002) have been analyzed
over the tropical Andes to show increased relative
humidity (Vuille et al., 2003).
The net longwave radiation loss of energy from the
glacier surface would also be dampened with a rise in
Fig. 8. Annual deviation of temperature from the 1961–1990 average from 29 Peruvian stations located between 9–11 1S, and ranging in elevation
from 20 to 4600 m a.s.l. The trends are based on ordinary least squares regression, and the vertical bars extend 2 standard errors of the mean on either
side of the annual average.
2275
atmospheric humidity, but with less impact. As indi-
cated above, the effect is ten times less than the impact
on latent heat. Such a water vapor feedback impact on
the longwave radiative flux has been shown in models to
be scale dependent with a large impact on a global level,
but less of an impact on sub-grid scales (Hall and
Manabe, 2000). More humidity in the air would
probably also induce increased cloudiness and a greater
longwave radiative flux to the glaciers if relative
humidity were increased as well, but the clouds would
act to decrease the incoming direct radiation, in turn
counteracting the net energy gain to the surface of a
decreased latent heat flux.
In summary, considerations of a simplified glacier
surface energy budget with respect to observed climatic
changes suggest that a combination of rising tempera-
ture and related humidity increases forced late 20th
century glacier recession on the Queshque massif. The
more predominant trend of temperature increase over
the observational period implies a greater contribution
of sensible heat caused by rising temperatures (up to 6 of
the 9.3 W m2). Yet humidity is intricately linked, and
likely contributes the balance, amounting to a rise in
specific humidity of up to 0.17 g kg1 over the 37 year
period. Finally, the net long-wave radiation is small, but
can be given an estimated maximum of 1 W m2
(assuming a 1 W m2 rise per degree temperature rise)
based on published impacts of longwave thermal
insolation associated with global warming over the past
century (Luther and Cess, 1985).
5.3. Model 2: change in ELA
The ELA rises derived from the observed changes
in glacier dimensions can be used as input to a
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
2276 B.G. Mark, G.O. Seltzer / Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 2265–2280
climate-ELA model (Kuhn, 1989; Kaser et al., 1996) to
give an alternative evaluation of the possible cli-
matic changes forcing glacier recession. The model
calculates an equilibrium response to perturbations of
mass and energy fluxes at the glacier equilibrium line
where the expression of mass balance equates accumula-
tion with ablation. The climate fluctuations are com-
pensated by altitude adjustments (q=qzDz) of the mass
balance terms for which Dz ¼ DELA(1962–1999), such
that:
qc=qz Dz þ dc ¼ t=LðqQ=qz Dz þ dQÞ, (5)
where c is the accumulation, assumed to be precipita-
tion; Q is a collective term for the energy fluxes; and t=L
is melt time (t) divided by latent heat (L), a term to
convert units between the mass and energy fluxes. The
glacier at the ELA is assumed to be melting with
constant surface and air temperatures of 0 1C, reducing
the longwave flux to zero. Thus, solar radiation, latent
heat, and sensible heat are the remaining energy fluxes
considered to balance the accumulation gain.
Representative vertical gradients of temperature and
precipitation published for the Cordillera Blanca region
(Kaser et al., 1996) can be used to estimate the
magnitude of perturbations in individual climate para-
meters needed to cause the measured rise in ELA from
1962 to 1999. If each parameter is considered as acting
alone to cause the entire DELA(1962–1999) the respective
values needed to force the average 72 m rise in ELA are:
an air temperature increase of 0.5 K; increased radiation
of 9.6 W m2; a decrease in precipitation of 900 mm a1;
or a decrease in latent heat of 10.8 W m2. If a 100 m
ELA rise is considered, reflecting the average of
estimates from the Queshque Main and Queshque East
glaciers (largest changes), these climate parameters are
increased to: an air temperature increase of 0.67 1C;
increased radiation of 13 W m2; a decrease in precipita-
tion of 1237 mm a1; or a decrease in latent heat of
14.8 W m2.
These estimates fall short of the
1.5 1C tem-
perature rise seen in the meteorological records. How-
ever, the ELA changes calculated here are based
inherently on the glacier dimensions that are in-
fluenced by ice flow dynamics, and glaciers lag behind
climatic forcing (Kuhn, 1979). Therefore, these
DELA derived temperatures would be expected to be
less than the actual magnitude of atmospheric condi-
tions. A 0.5 1C temperature increase calculated for
these glacier dimensional changes over less than 50
years is on the same order as the 0.6 1C globally
averaged increase in temperature over the entire
past century (Jones et al., 2001). Such a temperature
increase would need a 3.7 W m2 decrease in the latent
heat flux, a 308 mm a1 decrease in precipitation, or a
3.3 W m2 increase in radiation to cause a 100 m change
in ELA.
6. Discussion
We have applied two distinct models to explore the
climate forcing responsible for observed mass loss, each
requiring different assumptions. Model 1 (Hastenrath
and Kruss, 1992) is appropriate given that our data are
limited to a total mass loss between single point
observations, without intervening measures of mass or
energy exchange. Yet the approach does require many
parameters that need to be reasonably reduced or given
best-guess values. Model 2 (Kaser and Georges, 1997) is
also appropriate to our limited data, but requires
reasonable ELA estimates. Without any direct mass
balance measurements, the AAR method is favored over
other methods to estimate ELA from glacier dimensions
(Meierding, 1982; Porter, 2001). The model and AAR
method assume steady state conditions, which we are
not able to verify with our limited data. Yet recent
observations have shown glacier advances in Perú,
indicating late 20th century positions to be close to
steady state (Kaser et al., 2004). Furthermore, our
selection of AAR values falls within the range of values
0.5–0.8 noted in empirical studies of modern glaciers
(Meier and Post, 1962).
A rise in late 20th century temperatures over the
Peruvian Andes is clearly demonstrated by the available
historical weather station data, and contributes to
mounting evidence of temperature-forced glacier reces-
sion. The time series of temperature anomalies calcu-
lated here reveals a 0.39 1C per decade rate of late-
twentieth century atmospheric warming. This far
exceeds the recent 0.065 1C per decade estimate of the
global averaged surface temperature increase Jones et
al., 1999), but is closer in magnitude to other recent
findings of temperature increase in the tropical Andes
based on station data (e.g. 0.20 1C per decade from 1958
to 1998 and 0.34 1C per decade from 1974 to 1998, from
Vuille and Bradley, 2000). It also coincides with
reported dramatic glacier recession throughout the
region (Brecher and Thompson, 1993; Hastenrath and
Ames, 1995b; Kaser, 1999; Francou et al., 2000), d18O
increases in the upper section of tropical ice cores
(Thompson et al., 1993), and radiosonde observations of
rising freezing levels and low-latitude warming of the
lower troposphere (Oort and Liu, 1993; Diaz and
Graham, 1996; Vinnikov et al., 1996; Angell, 1999).
Nevertheless, it is recognized that other analyses of
observed temperature trends have shown the tropical
troposphere to have much less warming than the surface
(Folland et al., 2001).
The asymmetrical pattern of observed ice mass loss
(Table 2) can be explained by accounting for the
different glacier hypsometries under a spatially homo-
genous temperature increase. Higher tropospheric tem-
peratures would directly enhance the sensible heat flux
to glacierized surfaces in all directions uniformly as a
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
B.G. Mark, G.O. Seltzer / Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 2265–2280 2277

function of elevation. However, the actual ice volume
lost to melting on each glacier would vary as a function
of hypsometry, the amount of mass impacted with
increasing elevation. The largest observed loss of ice
mass from the Queshque massif occurred in the south-
western facing Queshque Main glacier. The hypsometric
curves of the glaciers shows that more area is exposed
at the lower elevations of the Queshque Main glacier
(Fig. 9). This glacier is of a more pronounced valley
form than the steeper and smaller Queshque East and
Mururaju glaciers. As temperatures increase, forcing the
5700
5500
5300
m
freezing level to rise, relatively more of the Queshque
Main glacier is exposed to melting.
The sensitivity studies presented above indicate rising
temperature is most likely accompanied by related
increases in specific humidity. Other research has
suggested that increased atmospheric humidity is likely
to augment rising temperatures in forcing tropical
glacier recession (Hastenrath and Kruss, 1992; Kaser,
1999; Kaser and Georges, 1999; Wagnon et al., 1999).
Observations by Hense et al. (1988) show an increase in
specific humidity at the 500–700 mbar level in the
equatorial belt of 0.6 g kg1 between 1964 and 1985.
Modeling studies confirm that increased water vapor
concentrations enhance climate sensitivity at the higher
elevations between 450 and 750 mb where glaciers are
encountered (Schneider et al., 1999). Hastenrath and
Kruss (1992) inferred a likely increase of 0.1–0.2 g kg1
in tropospheric humidity as contributing to African
glacier recession between 1963 and 1987 along with
increased temperatures. Other work on mountain
glaciers from around the world indicates that recession
from 1961 to 1997 has featured enhanced melting and

5100 accumulation (annual turnover), implying increased

precipitation at high elevation (Dyurgerov and Meier,
4900
2000).
Recent instrument-based measurements of the annual
Quesh Main
cycle of energy balance of the Zongo glacier in Bolivia
4700 Quesh East (Wagnon et al., 1999) confirmed the climate sensitivity
of tropical glaciers, showing close linkages between
Mururaju
sensible and latent heat fluxes. The relative distribution
4500 of energy between the fluxes to the glacier surface have
0 20 40 60 80 100 implications for understanding the late 20th century
(a) Cumulative area (%) melting of the glaciers observed here. While net all-wave
radiation is the main source of energy to the glacier
5700
surface, as in all other glaciers, it does not show any
marked seasonality, but is highly dependent on albedo
5500 of the surface. The latent heat flux is strongly negative
throughout the year, indicating loss by sublimation,
seasonally varying from a maximum in the dry season to
5300 lower values in the humid season. At the same time, the
sensible heat flux remains continuously positive, though
not as large as the latent flux, leading to the strong
m

5100 vertical gradient of net balance in the ablation zone

(Kaser et al., 1996). Therefore, not only would increased
4900
temperatures enhance mass loss via the sensible heat
flux, but any associated specific humidity increase would
trigger an even larger ice loss as the reduced latent heat
4700 flux leaves energy available at the surface to cause
melting.

4500
0 1 2 3
7. Conclusions
2
(b) Area (km )

Fig. 9. Hypsometric curves for the Queshque glaciers, showing (a) We have quantified the extent of mass lost between
normalized cumulative area with altitude and (b) area with altitude, 1962 and 1999 from the Queshque massif with glaciers in
using same patterns to identify the glaciers. three different orientations in the Cordillera Blanca,
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
2278 B.G. Mark, G.O. Seltzer / Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (2005) 2265–2280
Perú, allowing an exploration into the nature of late
20th century tropical Andean climate changes using
digital terrain modeling and surface energy balance
models. Below are our main conclusions:
Asymmetry in glacier mass loss is not explained by
radiation forcing, despite the predominant strength of
radiation in the energy budget. Solar radiation has a
strong control over the distribution, and hence energy
balance, of regional glaciers, but changes in cloud
cover or enhanced direct solar radiation are not
forcing glacier recession.
Glacier recession has been forced primarily by
increased temperatures. Historical temperature trends
show a strong warming over the observational period
and the glacier hypsometry explains the observed
asymmetry of recession.
A humidity increase has likely accompanied the rising
temperature forcing. Two energy balance models
prescribe different magnitudes of temperature in-
crease as forcing the observed glacier recession, but
both models can be interpreted to show an accom-
panying decrease in the latent heat flux amounting to
30–50% of the energy forcing. This is consistent with
the reported increase in tropical humidity associated
with rising global temperatures.
This work contributes to a growing body of research
affirming a dramatic loss of tropical glacier mass
during the late 20th century (e.g. Francou et al.,
2000). The information gained by studying the
linkages between tropical glaciers and climatic forcing
is critical for understanding climate dynamics, as well
as for regional planning of water resources (Seltzer,
2001). This work affirms the importance of tropical
glaciers as high-confidence indicators of air tempera-
ture trends associated with ‘greenhouse warming,’
valuable for the role in early detection of possible
anthropogenic climate changes (Oerlemans, 1994;
Haeberli et al., 2000). The terrain modeling approach
used here to determine volume change holds promise
for obtaining a regional signal of specific balance
more economically than annual observations of mass
balance (Haeberli et al., 1999). Finally, this work
should encourage further instrumental observations
of the highly climate-sensitive tropical glaciers to
improve the understanding of mass and energy
exchange dynamics (i.e. Francou et al., 2003).
Acknowledgements
Research was supported by the US Fulbright
Commission and the Geological Society of America.
We thank many institutions and individuals for provid-
ing invaluable assistance in this project. Collaboration
with the Instituto Geofisico del Perú is gratefully
acknowledged for supporting the GPS survey, especially
the excellent field assistance by Oscar Ancajima.
Ezequiel Chauqua, Calixto Huerta Trujillo, Juan
Rurush Gloria and the INRENA office in Huaraz
assisted with field work, and Alcides Ames provided
logistical assistance. Henry Brecher completed the aerial
photogrammetry. Mathias Vuille provided very helpful
instruction on climate time series analyses. We also
acknowledge collaboration with SENAMHI for con-
tributing historical climate data. This paper benefited
greatly from the helpful reviews by Ch. Georges and
J. Rose.
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