Putin's Gulf tour: A strategic shift in

Russia-Ukraine war?
December 9, 2023

Image source: kremlin.ru

Flanked by four Russian jets, President Vladimir Putin arrived in

the Middle East in a rare trip abroad during which he will discuss
oil, Gaza and Ukraine with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince
Mohammed bin Salman. The visit underscores the shifting
dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global geopolitics,
prompting Putin to display a renewed sense of confidence,
writes The Times of India
(https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/europe/putins-gulf-
tour-a-strategic-shift-in-russia-ukraine-
war/articleshow/105789580.cms?from=mdr).

Putin’s visit comes at a time when the West is showing signs of

fracturing support for Ukraine, while domestically, Russia is
witnessing a rebound in its energy revenues and a suppression
of dissent.

These developments, coupled with the contentious political

atmosphere in the US over Ukraine aid, paint a complex picture
of the ongoing conflict and its broader implications.
A calculated move

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to the United Arab

Emirates and Saudi Arabia comes at a time when global
attention is divided, particularly with the US and the West
focused on the Israel-Hamas conflict. The timing, thus, appears
to be calculated since the West is distracted.

Ukraine’s aid dilemma

Meanwhile, Ukraine faces challenges in securing continued

military aid and weapons from the US. A political stalemate in
Washington has hindered the flow of assistance, crucial for
Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression. This deadlock
raises concerns about the sustainability of Western support for
Ukraine.

Putin’s confidence amid western distractions

With the West’s attention split, Putin’s confidence appears to be

growing. His Gulf visit, only his third outside the former Soviet
Union since the Ukraine invasion, is seen as a bold step in
demonstrating Russia’s refusal to be isolated on the global
stage. This trip could signify Putin’s belief in Russia’s
advantageous position in the conflict with Ukraine.

The OPEC+ factor

The visit also coincides with recent developments in OPEC+,

where Russia plays a pivotal role. The alliance’s decision to
extend and deepen production cuts could be a topic of
discussion, further highlighting Russia’s influence in global
energy markets.

Implications for the Russia-Ukraine War

Putin’s actions suggest he may sense an opportunity to
capitalize on the current global distractions and political
divisions in the West. The combination of Ukraine’s struggles for
aid, the focus on the Israel-Hamas conflict, and the US political
impasse could be perceived by Putin as factors tilting the
balance in Russia’s favor in the ongoing war.

The uncertain road ahead

However, the situation remains fluid. While Putin’s confidence is

evident, the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still
uncertain. The war has seen numerous shifts in momentum, and
despite current challenges, Western support for Ukraine has not
completely diminished. The coming weeks and months will be
crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and whether
Putin’s perceived advantages will translate into tangible gains on
the battlefield.