Natural Resources Research, Vol. 31, No.

3, June 2022 (Ó 2022)

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11053-022-10049-4

Original Paper

Predicting Shale Volume from Seismic Traces Using

Modified Random Vector Functional Link Based
on Transient Search Optimization Model: A Case Study
from Netherlands North Sea

Mohamed Abd Elaziz ,1,2,3,8 Ashraf Ghoneimi,4 Ammar H. Elsheikh,5 Laith Abualigah,6,7
Ahmed Bakry,4 and Muhammad Nabih4

Received 2 July 2021; accepted 6 March 2022

Published online: 13 April 2022

Seismic data have the advantage of wide aerial distribution and deep extent unlike well data
that are restricted to a boreholeÕs location, measuring intervals, and depth. In addition,
seismic data are suitable for delineation of structural and stratigraphic features, whereas well
logs are suitable for delineation of much smaller scale petrophysical properties. However,
both methods are beneficial for extending small-scale petrophysical parameters to large-
scale seismic volumes. In seismic data, seismic traces are mainly band-limited, whereas
sources of seismic data do not offer the entire band of frequencies required for the desired
resolution to be comparable to well data. Therefore, it is a big challenge to compare well
data with a resolution that is several orders greater than that of seismic data. The integration
of petrophysical parameters and seismic traces helps to predict the lateral distribution of
petrophysical properties. However, the traditional prediction methods have their limitations.
Therefore, this study used seismic and well logs to predict shale volume using the proposed
model with an artificial neural network. The proposed hybrid model consists of a conven-
tional random vector functional link (RVFL) network and the transient search optimization
(TSO) algorithm, and the model is named TSO–RVFL. This model predicts shale volume in
wells. The TSO–RVFL was compared with the standalone RVFL and other two hybrid
models. The results of this study validated the successful performance of the artificial neural
network for calculating and predicting petrophysical parameters, such as shale volume. The
TSO–RVFL outperformed the three other models based on different statistical measures.
KEY WORDS: Random vector functional link (RVFL), Transient search optimization (TSO), Seismic,
Well logging, Petrophysics, Machine learning.

1
Faculty of Computer Science & Engineering, Galala University, 5
Department of Production Engineering and Mechanical Design,
Suze 435611, Egypt. Tanta University, Tanta 31527, Egypt.
2
Artificial Intelligence Research Center (AIRC), Ajman Univer- 6
Faculty of Computer Sciences and Informatics, Amman Arab
sity, Ajman 346, United Arab Emirates. University, Amman 11953, Jordan.
3
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Zagazig 7
School of Computer Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800
University, Zagazig 44519, Egypt. Pulau Pinang, Malaysia.
4
Department of Geology, Faculty of Science, Zagazig University, 8
To whom correspondence should be addressed; e-mail:
Zagazig 44519, Egypt. abd_el_aziz_m@yahoo.com

1775
1520-7439/22/0600-1775/0 Ó 2022 International Association for Mathematical Geosciences
1776
INTRODUCTION
In recent years, machine learning techniques
are increasingly being used to predict shale volume
(VSH) from seismic traces. The shale content
petrophysical property is a crucial parameter for
assessing hydrocarbon reservoirs. This study pro-
poses a novel technique for calculating shale content
using an unconventional method, namely machine
learning, from seismic traces in insufficient well-log
data.
VSH is a critical quantitative parameter for log
data analysis. Shale is important because it is a
source rock, and it impacts the quality of reservoir
rock; the reservoir quality increases with decrease in
VSH. VSH can be calculated using a variety of logs,
such as self-potential, gamma-ray (GR), density,
neutron, resistivity, and velocity deviation (Kamel &
Mabrouk, 2003; Nabih, 2021). Researchers have
tried to determine various VSH estimation methods
that can be used to find minimum errors in possible
results (Crain, 1986; Nabih & Al-Alfy, 2018).
Machine learning techniques have shown
excellent performance in different geoscientific
applications. For example, Dorrington and Link
(2004) used a machine learning model that com-
bined genetic algorithm (GA) and artificial neural
network (ANN) to predict the C38 reservoirs in the
Stratton field 3D seismic dataset; GA was used to
determine the relevant attributes, and ANN was
applied to improve the prediction process. Chaki
et al. (2018) presented a machine learning approach,
using adaptive neuro-fuzzy system, ANN, and sup-
port vector machine (SVM), for reservoir charac-
terization. Priezzhev et al. (2019) used several
machine learning models, such as ANN, linear
regression, and random forest, to integrate well log
and seismic data to identify petrophysical properties.
Zahmatkesh et al. (2021) applied ANN to identify
the desired seismic facies collected from the Mansuri
oil field in southwest Iran. Random forest has been
implemented as a machine learning technique to
deal with uncertainty in well-log classification (Feng,
2021). Farsi et al. (2021) introduced a three-hybrid
machine learning optimization approach (extreme
learning machine, least squares SVM (LSSVM), and
multilayer perceptron neural network) to predict
pore pressure across a 273-m thick bore in the giant
Marun oil field (Iran) using 1972 data records; the
three methods were combined with particle swarm
Abd Elaziz et al.
optimization to determine optimal parameters.
Moreover, several machine learning techniques
were performed for well logs (e.g., Ali et al., 2021;
Garia et al., 2021; Iturrarán-Viveros et al., 2021;
Yasin et al., 2021). However, the applications of
these machine learning models to geoscience data
have limitations that influence the quality of the final
output. For example, most of models suffer from
overfitting because there is no direct connection
between input and output nodes (layers). In addi-
tion, these models depend on parameters whose fair
values need to be determined using optimization
techniques; these parameters have the largest effect
on prediction quality.
Another type of ANN named random vector
functional link (RVFL) has also been used (Pratama
et al., 2018; Abd Elaziz et al., 2020). In general,
RVFL is a single hidden-layer feedforward ANN
that directly links the input and output layers and it
requires only the output weights to be updated
(Sharshir et al., 2020). Therefore, RVFL is consid-
ered one of the most efficient machine learning
techniques and it provides results better than the
traditional ANN models (Essa et al., 2020). How-
ever, the main drawback of RVFL, which is similar
to other machine learning models, is the ability to
determine the parameter values, such as the ran-
domization weights activation function and the
number of hidden nodes. This motivated us to pre-
sent a modified version of RVFL to manage this
problem using a new metaheuristic technique called
transient search optimization (TSO) (Qais et al.,
2020a). In general, TSO simulates the behavior of
the transient properties of switched electrical cir-
cuits. Based on these behaviors, TSO has been ap-
plied to a variety of applications such as global
optimization (Yang et al., 2021), allocation of mul-
tiple distributed generators (Bhadoriya & Gupta,
2021), and estimation of electrical parameters of
photovoltaic (Qais et al., 2020b) and proportional
integral controllers (Qais et al., 2020c).
The rest of this research is divided into the
following sections. The Material section presents the
primary materials used. The Methodology section
presents the general methods and the method pro-
posed in this study. The Results and Discussion
section describes the experiments, results, and dis-
cussions. Finally, the main conclusions of this study
are presented, and some future work directions are
given in the last section.
Predicting Shale Volume from Seismic Traces 1777

Figure 1. Satellite location map of the F3 block in the North Sea: Dutch sector (left) and 3D seismic data volume base map and the
available wells (right).

MATERIAL

The study area is situated in the southern North

Sea area (Fig. 1), where a large volume of 3D seis-
mic data and well logs are available. The deltaic
package represented in the seismic data of the study
area comprises sand and shale with high overall
porosity of 20–33%. On a large scale, the sag rifting
of the southern North Sea basin (Fig. 2) occurred
during Triassic–Jurassic, Early Cretaceous, and Late
Cretaceous to the present (Fig. 3). The sag rifting
was affected by a post-rift phase (Schroot, 2002;
Schroot & Schüttenhelm, 2003). In this basin, some
seismo-stratigraphic units of a pro-delta depositional
fan delta system occurred toward end of Miocene.
These units developed gradually into an alluvial
plain and a river delta system (Sha, 1991).
During Pliocene–Pleistocene, cliff-like deposits
were deposited very locally in the south over the
older tertiary deposits (Cameron et al., 1989). From
the end of Early Pleistocene to the beginning of
Middle Pleistocene, irregular transgressions ex-
tended to the south of the present Dutch north
shoreline and interrupted the predominant alluvial
plain environments. Consequently, continuous
reflectors are rare, whereas channeling is predomi-
nant.
Most of the land area of the Netherlands is
covered by British and Scandinavian ice masses
(Laban, 1995). Deep channels of chaotic, coarse
Figure 2. Late Cenozoic fluvial–deltaic system (VG: Viking
Graben, CG: Central Graben) ( adapted from Overeem
et al., 2001).
basal glacial fills are superimposed by laminated,
clayey, and sandy lacustrine deposits. These glacial
channels interrupt the sediment continuity and form
paths for the movement of fluids and gases. The
most apparent feature revealed in the seismic data
(Figs. 2 and 4) is the large-scale sigmoidal strata that
consists of large fluvio-deltaic deposits (Sørensen
et al., 1997; Overeem et al., 2001).
The study area (F3 block) is situated in the
Central Graben of the southern North Sea
(NetherlandÕs sector of the North Sea). The high-
quality 3D seismic data used in this study were
surveyed in 1989 by a Dutch oil and gas company.
The data comprise 650 inlines and 950 crosslines
(Fig. 1) and cover approximately 24 9 16 km2. The
1778
Figure 3. Generalized lithologic column of the survey area based on available well reports (from Kabaca, 2018).
survey was acquired for gas and oil exploration in
the Upper Jurassic – Lower Cretaceous layers.
In addition to seismic data, the well logs of
three wells F06-01, F03-02, and F03-04 were avail-
able. The dataset of the three wells consists of suites
of logs, such as GR, density, P-wave sonic, and
porosity logs, in actual vertical depth. For amplitude
vs. time measurements, the digital seismic data of
the seismic traces at the locations of the F06-01, F03-
02, and F03-04 wells were extracted from the 3D
seismic data volume (Fig. 4). These data were tied to
the well data at their corresponding locations, and
the time was converted to depth for easy correlation
with the well log data. This was done with check shot
Abd Elaziz et al.
surveys of the wells, which were time–depth mea-
surements performed in wells for the depth-to-time
conversion of the log data or the time-to-depth
conversion of the seismic data.
METHODOLOGY
In this study, we employed petrophysics and
ANN for the available data from three wells. Each
well has GR, sonic, and density logs in addition to
the composite seismic line that passes through the
three wells (Fig. 4). These logs were used to esti-
mate shale content.
Predicting Shale Volume from Seismic Traces
Figure 4. Tie of well logs with seismic data (left inset: gamma-ray log).
Well Logging Analysis
The main objective of well-logging analysis is to
estimate shale content. The log analysis software
Interactive Petrophysics (v4.4) was used to perform
this complex iterative operation. Shale content was
determined using GR logs in which the shale
radioactivity was more than the radioactivity in sand
and carbonate rocks. The basic equations that ex-
press the relationship between the natural GR
radiation intensity and VSH (Atlas, 1975) are as
follows:
GRlog  GRmin
I GR ¼ ; ð1Þ
GRmax  GRmin
which is corrected to VSH using LarionovÕs equa-
tion (1969), thus:
 
VSH ¼ 0:083 23:7I GR  1 ; ð2Þ
where IGR is a gamma-ray index, GRlog is a gamma-
ray reading at the interval of interest, GRmin is a
minimum gamma-ray reading (clean sand) and
GRmax is a reading of maximum gamma-ray (shale).
1779
Random Vector Functional Link
In general, RVFL is an extension of the single-
hidden layer feedforward neural network that di-
rectly links the input and output nodes (Fig. 5) (Pao
et al., 1994; Elsheikh et al., 2021). In RVFL, only the
weights between the input and output nodes are
tuned to improve the prediction of the output. The
prediction using a RVFL network starts by receiving
data of M samples (i.e., ðai ; bi Þ, where
ai 2 Cn ; bi 2 Cm ; i ¼ 1; . . . ; M). Here, ai is the ith
sample, and bi represents the target of the ith sam-
ple. Then, these data are passed to the hidden layer,
and the output is computed as:
  1
Oj cj ai þ dj ¼ ; dj 2 ½0; n; cj 2 ½n; n
1 þ eðcj ai þdj Þ
ð3Þ
where cj are weights that connect the hidden nodes
and the input layer, dj represents bias, and n is a
scalar factor. The next step is to predict the target as:
Z ¼ Kw; w 2 RnþP ; K ¼ ½K1 ; K 2  ð4Þ
Then, the output w is updated using the Moore–
Penrose pseudoinverse, thus:
1780 Abd Elaziz et al.

Figure 5. Structure of RVFL network.

Figure 6. Proposed TSO–RVFL for predicting VSH.

  2 3
I 1 T a11    a1n
w ¼ KT K þ K Z; ð5Þ 6 . .. .. 7
C K 1 ¼ 4 .. . . 5;
a2N1    aNn 3
or using the ridge regression, thus: O 1 ð c 1 a 1 þ d1 Þ    O P ð c P a 1 þ dP Þ
6 .. .. .. 7
w ¼ Ky Z ð6Þ K2 ¼ 4 . . . 5
O 1 ð c 1 a N þ d1 Þ    OP ðcP aN þ dP Þ
where denotes the Moore–Penrose pseudoinverse,
and K represents the input data matrix, which con- ð7Þ
sists of K 1 and K 2 defined as:
Predicting Shale Volume from Seismic Traces 1781

Figure 7. Correlations among conventional VSH obtained by well-log analysis and predicted VSH obtained by machine learning
techniques using the training data from wells F06-01 and F03-04: (a) RVFL; (b) SSO–RVFL; (c) AEO–RVFL; (d) TSO–RVFL.

where C and I refer to the coefficients of the trade-
off and the identity matrices, respectively.
Transient Search Optimization
The TSO emulates the transient characteristics
of switched electrical circuits. Like other meta-
heuristic techniques, TSO has two phases. The first
phase is exploring the search space, which refers to
the oscillations of the second-order resistor–induc-
tor–capacitor circuits around zero. The second phase
is the exploitation, and this emulates the exponential
decaying of the first-order discharge.
The TSO begins by setting the initial values for
a set of parameters; that is, the number of agents (N)
and the total number of iterations (tmax). This is
followed by constructing the initial population X,
which has N agents, and by determining the best
agent (Xb) according to their fitness value. The fol-
lowing process uses the TSO operator to enhance
the current population X:

X b þ ðX i  C1  X b Þ  eT ifr1\0:5
Xi ¼
X b þ eT  ðcosð2pT Þ þ sinð2pT ÞÞ  jX i  C1  X b j
ð8Þ
where C1 and T are random coefficients defined,
respectively, as:
1782 Abd Elaziz et al.

Figure 8. Relationships between conventional VSH obtained by well-log analysis and predicted VSH obtained by machine learning
techniques using test data from wells F06-01 and F03-04: (a) RVFL; (b) SSO–RVFL; (c) AEO–RVFL; (d) TSO–RVFL.

Table 1. Correlation coefficients (r) for the investigated training wells F03-04 and F06-01

Neural network models RVFL SSO–RVFL AEO–RVFL TSO–RVFL

Train data in train wells 0.86 0.89 0.88 1

Test data in train wells 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.82

Then, the fitness value of X i is computed, and

T ¼ 2  Z  r2  Z; C1 ¼ k  Z  r3 þ 1; ð9Þ the value of X b is updated. The last process is to
check the stop conditions. In case the stop condi-
where r3 and r2 are random numbers in the range [0,
tions are met, the best agent is returned; otherwise,
1], and Z is a parameter change over the interval 2 to
the updating process is repeated. The full descrip-
0 among the excess iteration t and is given as:
tion of TSO is given in Algorithm 1.
t
Z ¼22 ð10Þ
tmax
Predicting Shale Volume from Seismic Traces 1783

Figure 9. Relationships between conventional VSH obtained by the well-log analysis and predicted VSH obtained using machine
learning techniques for the test well F03-02: (a) RVFL; (b) SSO–RVFL; (c) AEO–RVFL; (d) TSO–RVFL.

Algorithm 1: Steps of TSO

Input: number of agents ( ) and number of iterations
Construct initial population ( ).
Initialize t=1.
While ( < )
For each agent , = 1,2, . . . , compute fitness value.
Update the best agent ( ).
For = 1:
Update the value of and .
Using Eq. (8) to update .
End For
= +1
End While
Return .
1784
Figure 10. Relationships between conventional VSH obtained by well-log analysis and predicted VSH obtained by machine learning
techniques for the test well F03-02 test using the three-point moving averaging (MA-3) technique: (a) RVFL; (b) SSO–RVFL; (c)
AEO–RVFL; (d) TSO–RVFL.
Proposed TSO–RVFL Method
The general structure of the developed TSO–
RVFL prediction model is given in Figure 6. This
model depends on improving the performance of the
traditional RVFL using the TSO operators. In gen-
eral, the main target of using TSO is to determine
the best configuration from the parameters of the
RVFL network.
To develop the proposed TSO–RVFL model,
the input data were first divided into training data
(70%) and test (30%) data. Then, the initial popu-
lation ( X) with N agents was generated as:
 
X ij ¼ lj þ r  uj  lj ; i ¼ 1; . . . ; N; j ¼ 1; . . . ; dim; r
2 ½0; 1
ð11Þ
During this stage, the dimension ( dim ¼ 3) of
each agent denotes the number of RVFL parameters
Abd Elaziz et al.
required to determine the optimal value of the
agents. The first parameter is the activation function
having five values referring to the types of activation
functions; that is, hardlim, tribas, radbas, sign, and
sig with encodings denoted by 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5,
respectively. The second parameter denotes the
number of hidden nodes and, in this study, the
parameter was selected from the range [1, 2000].
The third parameter refers to the approach used to
generate weights. In this study, two methods were
used: uniform and Gaussian. For clearing this con-
figuration, consider X i ¼ ½X i1 ; X i2 ; X i3  ¼ ½3; 100; 1;
which refers to the third activation function named
radbas with 100 hidden nodes and uses a uniform
method to produce the weights.
The next step was to build the RVFL parame-
ters based on X i ; the training set was used to learn
RVFL and assess the quality of the current network
using the following fitness function:
Predicting Shale Volume from Seismic Traces 1785

Figure 11. Relationships between conventional VSH obtained by well-log analysis and predicted VSH obtained by machine learning
techniques for the F03-02 test well using the seven-point moving averaging (MA-7) technique: (a) RVFL; (b) SSO–RVFL; (c) AEO–
RVFL; (d) TSO–RVFL.

sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi between the VSH calculated from GR and the VSH

PNs 2 derived from RVFL, spherical search optimizer
i¼1 ðY P  Y T Þ
Fiti ¼
Ns
where Y P denotes the predicted output, Y T the target
output, and Ns the size of the training set. Then, the best
configuration having the smallest fitness value is up-
dated. The terminal conditions are checked, and when
the conditions are met, the best configuration is returned.
If the best configuration is not returned, the process of
updating the solutions is repeated. The following process
was to apply the test set to the best configuration, predict
the output, and compute the output performance.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
The regression analysis approach was used to
demonstrate the effectiveness of the relationships
ð12Þ (SSO)–RVFL, artificial ecosystem-based optimiza-
tion (AEO)–RVFL, and TSO–RVFL. The data ex-
tracted from the two training wells were divided into
two groups: training data and test data. Figure 7
shows the relationship of VSH (GR) with the VSH
training data; the correlation coefficients were 0.86,
0.89, 0.88, and 1, respectively, for RVFL, SSO–RVFL,
AEO–RVFL, and TSO–RVFL. The correlation
coefficients between the VSH (GR) and VSH test
data were 0.74, 0.76, 0.77, and 0.82, respectively, for
RVFL, SSO–RVFL, AEO–RVFL, and TSO–RVFL
(Fig. 8). These result clarify the strong relationships
among the three models (SSO–RVFL, AEO–RVFL,
and TSO–RVFL) and the slight decrease in the fourth
model RVFL. The estimated correlation coefficients
for the training and test data in the two wells F03-04
and F06-01 are listed in Table 1.
1786 Abd Elaziz et al.

Figure 12. Correlations between GR, seismic trace, VSH (GR), VSH (RVFL), VSH (SSO–RVFL), VSH (AEO–RVFL) and (VSH
TSO–RVFL) logs for the F03-02 well.

Figure 13. Correlations between the GR, seismic trace, VSH (GR), VSH (RVFL), VSH (SSO–RVFL), VSH (AEO–RVFL), and VSH
(TSO–RVFL) logs for the F03-02 well using MA-3.
Predicting Shale Volume from Seismic Traces 1787

Figure 14. Correlations between the GR, seismic trace, VSH (GR), VSH (RVFL), VSH (SSO–RVFL), VSH (AEO–RVFL), and VSH
(TSO–RVFL) logs for the F03-02 well using MA-7.

Table 2. Correlation coefficients (r) for the test well F03-02

RVFL SSO–RVFL AEO–RVFL TSO–RVFL

Test well 0.71 0.73 0.72 0.76

Test well (MA-3) 0.71 0.76 0.76 0.77
Test well (MA-7) 0.71 0.77 0.77 0.78

When the RVFL, SSO–RVFL, AEO–RVFL,
and TSO–RVFL models were used on the third
tested well (F03-02), there was strong correlation
between VSH (GR) and VSH (TSO–RVFL) with
r = 0.76 (Fig. 9). The correlation coefficient between
VSH (GR) and VSH is slightly weak at r = 0.71, 0.73
and 0.72 for RVFL, SSO–RVFL, and AEO–RVFL,
respectively.
The relationship of VSH (GR) vs. VSH using
the three-point moving averaging (MA-3) technique
improved the results, and the correlation coefficients
increased to r = 0.76, 0.76, and 0.77, respectively, for
SSO–RVFL, AEO–RVFL, and TSO–RVFL
(Fig. 10). The correlation coefficient between VSH
(GR) and VSH (RVFL) decreased slightly to
r = 0.71. In addition, the results were improved
further by using the seven-point moving averaging
(MA-7) technique where the relationship between
VSH (GR) and VSH was very strong with correla-
tion coefficients of r = 0.77, 0.77 and 0.78, respec-
tively, for SSO–RVFL, AEO–RVFL, and TSO–
RVFL (Fig. 11). The relationship between VSH
(GR) and VSH (RVFL) was the same as that in
MA-3 with correlation coefficient r = 0.71.
Figures 12, 13, and 14 show good agreement
trends in most zones for GR, VSH, and VSH
(RVFL, SSO–RVFL, AEO–RVFL, and TSO–
RVFL) logs of the F03-02 test well, but the TSO–
RVFL log was better than the other three logs. The
strong correlation between the logs shows that the
TSO–RVFL model was more efficient and reliable
than the other models for predicting VSH. The de-
1788 Abd Elaziz et al.

Figure 15. Histograms of correlation coefficients (r) for the test well F03-02.

Table 3. Statistical evaluation of the proposed models

F03-02 test well F03-02 test well (MA-3) F03-02 test well (MA-7)

RVFL SSO– AEO– TSO– RVFL SSO– AEO– TSO– RVFL SSO– AEO– TSO–
RVFL RVFL RVFL RVFL RVFL RVFL RVFL RVFL RVFL

R2 0.833 0.836 0.837 0.857 0.838 0.861 0.863 0.868 0.844 0.872 0.875 0.876
RMSE 0.208 0.205 0.205 0.193 0.202 0.188 0.186 0.182 0.197 0.179 0.176 0.176
MAE 0.167 0.156 0.159 0.147 0.163 0.143 0.145 0.139 0.159 0.137 0.137 0.135
EC 0.476 0.488 0.489 0.551 0.472 0.546 0.554 0.571 0.468 0.563 0.575 0.576
OI 0.634 0.642 0.642 0.679 0.635 0.679 0.684 0.695 0.635 0.692 0.699 0.701
COV 45.057 47.132 45.432 43.962 43.803 43.008 41.133 41.586 42.695 40.937 38.949 40.102
CRM 0.101 0.040 0.077 0.045 0.101 0.041 0.078 0.045 0.101 0.041 0.078 0.045

duced equations of VSH (GR) and VSH (RVFL,
SSO–RVFL, AEO–RVFL, and TSO–RVFL) mod-
els were used to predict VSH in the third test with
high accuracy.
The correlation coefficients estimated for the
test well (F03-02) are listed in Table 2 and illustrated
using histograms in Figure 15, which show that the
correlation coefficients increased more when the
MA-7 method was used than when the original test
and the MA-3 method were used. In addition, TSO–
RVFL was found to be the best model with corre-
lation coefficient of 0.78 using the MA-7 method.
To assess further the effects of the proposed
model, seven statistical measures were used, namely
efficiency coefficient (EC), coefficient of determi-
nation (R2), overall index (OI), mean absolute error
(MAE), coefficient of residual mass (CRM), coeffi-
cient of variation (COV), and root mean squared
error (RMSE). A predictive model has high accu-
racy when the values of R2, EC, and OI approach
Predicting Shale Volume from Seismic Traces
Figure 16. Spider plots of the statistical measures used to evaluate the models.
unity, the CRM value approaches zero, and the
values of RMSE, COV, and MAE are small. Table 3
and Fig. 16 show that TSO–RVFL had the highest
accuracy among all the models to predict the VSH of
the tested wells. The R2 obtained by TSO–RVFL
ranged between 0.857 and 0.876, which were higher
than the R2 of RVFL (0.833–0.844), AEO–RVFL
(0.837–0.875), and AEO–RVFL (0.837–0.875). Thus,
based on R2, the predicted data obtained using
TSO–RVFL had the highest correlation with the
experimental ones. Consequently, the proposed
model had the highest accuracy as compared with
the other models. The RMSE, MAE, and COV
values of the predicted data obtained using TSO–
RVFL were the lowest as compared with those of
the other models, which proved that TSO–RVFL
had the highest accuracy. The CRM obtained by
TSO–RVFL was approximately the same (0.045) for
all the tested wells, which was lower than the CRM
values of RVFL and AEO–RVFL and approached
the SSO–RVFL value. The low value of CRM ob-
tained by TSO–RVFL showed its high accuracy.
From the results obtained, it can be concluded that
TSO–RVFL outperformed RVFL, SSO–RVFL, and
AEO–RVFL in predicting the VSH of all the tested
wells. Thus, TSO–RVFL is recommended as an
accurate predictive tool to predict VSH.
CONCLUSIONS
This study presents an alternative machine
learning technique to predict shale volume (VSH).
This technique depends on improving the prediction
1789
ability of RVFL using a new metaheuristic tech-
nique named TSO. In general, TSO was used to
determine the optimal parameters of RVFL that
lead to an increase in prediction efficiency. The
developed model was applied to predict VSH from
seismic traces. The experiment results proved the
superior performance of the developed TSO–RVFL
model as compared with other models, such as SSO–
RVFL, AEO–RVFL, and the traditional RVFL.
The main conclusions of this study are as follows:
 The correlation coefficients between VSH (GR)
and VSH (RVFL, SSO–RVFL, AEO–RVFL,
and TSO–RVFL) in the two train wells were
excellent, with r values of 0.86, 0.89, 0.88, and 1,
respectively, for RVFL, SSO–RVFL, AEO–
RVFL, and TSO–RVFL.
 The VSH (RVFL, SSO–RVFL, AEO–RVFL,
and TSO–RVFL) equations accurately predicted
VSH in the test wells. The r values obtained for
RVFL, SSO–RVFL, AEO–RVFL, and TSO–
RVFL were 0.71, 0.73, 0.72, and 0.76, respec-
tively.
 Using the MA-3 and MA-7 methods enhanced
the results of the four models and strong corre-
lations with r = 0.71, 0.77, 0.77, and 0.78 were
obtained.
 The two curves of VSH and VSH (RVFL, SSO–
RVFL, AEO–RVFL, and TSO–RVFL) matched
perfectly.
 The techniques used in this study can be applied
for predicting additional petrophysical properties
such as reservoir porosity and fluid saturations.
 The model proposed in this study can be devel-
1790
oped and used in the future as a new tool for
seismic inversion process where the 3D seismic
amplitude vs. time data can be converted into
models of petrophysical parameters, such as
shale content and reservoir porosity.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors are thankful to the dGB Earth
Sciences for making seismic data freely available for
the public.
Funding No fund.
DECLARATIONS
CONFLICT OF INTEREST There is no financial
or non-financial interests that are directly or indi-
rectly related to the current work.
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