Student Name: …

Student ID: …
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TIME SERIES & FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

QUIZ 1 – G01
Duration: 60 minutes

Question 1. (40 marks)

ABC invests primarily in technology stocks. The price of the fund at the end of each month for
the 12 months of 2022 is shown in Table 1.
a. Find the forecast value of the mutual fund for each month by using a starting with April,
using a three-month moving average. (15 marks)
b. Find the forecast value of the mutual fund for each month by using a naive model
(Method 1). The value for December 2021 was 19.00. (15 marks)
c. Evaluate these forecasting methods using the MAD. (5 marks)
d. Evaluate these forecasting methods using the MSE. (5 marks)
e. Forecast the fund price for January 2023 using the better technique. (10 marks)

Table 1. Mutual Fund Price in 2022

Month Mutual Fund Price

January 12.55

February 23.65

March 22.94

April 14.68

May 12.39

June 13.07

July 25.41

August 13.43

September 25.60

October 21.23

November 19.62

December 20.66

(Note: Round your calculation to 2 decimal)

Student Name: …
Student ID: …
Class: …
Question 2. (20 marks)

The seasonal indexes presented in Table 2 reflect the changing volume of business of the Sea
Resort Hotel, which caters to family tourists in the summer and skiing enthusiasts during the
winter months. No sharp cyclical variations are expected during 2023.

a. If 600 tourists were at the resort in January 2023, what is a reasonable estimate for
February? (given that the data follows multiplicative models: Y t = St * Tt * Et and Et = 1)
(5 marks)
b. The monthly trend equation is T^ =140+5 t where t = 0 represents January 15, 2017. What
is the forecast for the first quarter of 2023? (10 marks)
c. What is the average number of new tourists per month? (5 marks)

Table 2. Seasonal Indexes for tourists in Sea Resort Hotel

Month Seasonal Index

January 1.20

February 1.37

March 1.00

April 0.33

May 0.47

June 1.25

July 1.53

August 1.51

September 0.95

October 0.60

November 0.82

December 0.97

(Note: Round your calculation to 2 decimal)

Question 3. (40 marks)

Student Name: …
Student ID: …
Class: …
Apply Holt’s Exponential Smoothing Method to forecast demand for Period No. 13 of below
dataset with α = 0.3 and β = 0.15. Then, calculate the RMSE in two cases based on the given
formula by filling in the below table.
RMSE=√ ❑

(Note: Round your calculation to 2 decimal)