Tunisia's Struggle: A Tale of Democracy In Disarray

On a fateful Sunday evening, the 25th of July, 2021, I found myself amidst a small gathering in my
apartment, put at my disposal by a European Embassy in Tunisia, situated in the tranquil
neighborhood of Cite de Pins, in the La Marsa district. We were a diverse group of foreign
diplomats and local Tunisian friends, engaged in light-hearted chatter. Suddenly, an unusual
restlessness fell over my Tunisian companions as their eyes clung to their phones. The shocking
news was trickling in - in a tumultuous turn of events, the country’s new strongman, President Kais
Saied, had dismissed the government and frozen parliament. With this act, he seized de facto control
of the country.

I turned off the music, and offering a sober ride, shuttled a few of my friends home. As we
navigated the heart of La Marsa, we were greeted by a sea of citizens, their voices unified in shouts
and songs that echoed through the night. My car came to a standstill in the middle of the boulevard,
ironically right in front of the French ambassador's residence. It was a scene replicated across
Tunisia - thousands had descended onto the streets. Something was stirring, energy was palpable, an
unspoken anticipation hung in the air, a faint breeze carrying whispers of hope. In the ensuing
months, although my mandate at the embassy ended in September of the same year, Tunisians were
about to bear witness to an unexpected turn of events as the very same President began
systematically disassembling the country's independent democratic institutions. The nation that
once stood as the solitary beacon of democracy in the MENA region was being nudged back into
the shadow of dictatorship, evoking echoes of a past that the ordinary citizens had hoped was long
behind them.

In the period stretching from 2019 to July 25th, 2021, I engaged daily with ordinary citizens and
public administration officials. A palpable sense of dwindling hope began to permeate Tunisian
society as prices soared and salaries stagnated. The promise of democracy seemed like a distant
dream. However, an unmistakable air of exceptionalism was exuded by every Tunisian encountered.
In comparison to any neighboring nation, the gears of democracy were indeed turning here, albeit
imperfectly. The Parliament, despite its incessant internal conflicts, functioned; the judiciary, while
lethargic, served its purpose. Tourism was experiencing a resurgence, bouncing back after a handful
of terror incidents. Yet, an overarching sense of stagnation clouded over everything. A recurring
sentiment of despair towards the political class was ubiquitous.

This is precisely why President Kais Saied's decision to suspend the Parliament and govern by
decree was largely met with widespread enthusiasm by the Tunisian people. This is what brought
them out onto the streets that night. Perhaps, they thought, this was the long-awaited moment when
"those corrupted guys in the Parliament" would finally be shown some discipline. Many Tunisians
held memories of the latent longing within the populace for the financial stability that was a
hallmark of the Ben Ali era. Despite its autocratic nature, things worked. The bread was affordable,
petrol cheaper still, and their children were beneficiaries of quality education.

Subsequent to assuming the executive, legislative, and judicial powers, President Saied began
governing by issuing decrees, bypassing the parliamentary process. Critics, including several
opposition figures and journalists, were detained or even incarcerated. In July 2022, Saied
orchestrated a successful referendum that allowed him to formulate a new constitution,
transforming the presidential office into an exceptionally potent entity and reducing the influence of
both the parliament and judiciary. President Saied has projected the idea of a presidency that
maintains a direct connection with ordinary citizens, believing the role of the parliament is to
support this direct governance, not balance it.

The legislative assembly has now been relegated to an advisory position, proposing laws they
believe align with the President's vision. Despite the National Assembly reconvening in March, the
election saw an abysmal turnout of less than 9%, with numerous elected members boycotting the
assembly. Tensions escalated when Rached Ghannouchi, leader of the opposition Ennahda party,
was detained under accusations of conspiring against state security and making inflammatory
remarks. His arrest and subsequent imprisonment, deemed "troubling" by the US, incited
international condemnation. President Saied has also been under fire for urgently demanding the
removal of migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, asserting they were part of a "conspiracy" aimed at
shifting Tunisia's demographic makeup. From where I stand, strongman Saied is using black
Africans as scapegoats for the country's issues, pandering to his base in the process. Unfortunately,
in Europe, we know this discourse all too well.

Tunisia’s economy is in a troubling state, struggling with a slower-than-expected recovery,

worsened by growing trade and budget deficits due to rising global commodity prices. Potential
shortages in domestic products and increased inflation are anticipated due to potential delays in an
IMF package. The nation's Finance Minister, Samir Saied, warns of an inflation rate surge to 10.5%
in 2023, from 8.3% in 2022, due to tax hikes and reduced food and energy subsidies. In addition, in
the first quarter of 2023, Tunisia saw a significant rise in unemployment, with the number of jobless
individuals exceeding 655,000, up from roughly 625,000 in the last quarter of 2022. According to
data published by the National Statistics Institute INS, the unemployment rate reached 16.1% in
Q1-2023, marking an increase from the previous quarter's rate of 15.2%.

Italy is stepping up as a critical European ally to Tunisia, vowing significant investments and
assistance in negotiating an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout. This heightened Italian
involvement aims to stabilize Tunisia's perilous economic situation, which is on the brink of
bankruptcy. Italy's proactive stance is driven by an urgent need to maintain stability in Tunisia, a
crucial factor in curbing the growing number of migrants making their way to Italian shores. Italian
Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani has assured that Italy will act on Tunisia's behalf in IMF
discussions, advocating for a not-so-conditional loan disbursement approach. When France isn't in
the lead, Italy steps in as the indispensable European connection.

Italy appears indifferent to President Kais Saied's dismantling of democratic institutions,

extrajudicial incarcerations of political rivals, and racist remarks towards Sub-Saharan Africans.
Rome seems to be simply following the traditional European realpolitik playbook - making deals
with less-than-ideal partners - demonstrated by their willingness to write checks. Such a policy has
been historically proven to be ineffective.

Even with President Kais amassing significant control, there's been a stark absence of progress.
Conditions have notably gone from bad to worse. While he may still hold a degree of public favor,
the trend is on a clear downward slope. Through any lens one uses to evaluate his presidency, it
seems to be characterized by persistent failure.

In the end, the paradox persists. A land blessed with natural beauty, miles of stunning coastline, and
a warm, welcoming populace stands at a baffling distance from economic prosperity. One can only
hope that this enigma resolves, ushering in an era of stability and prosperity for the Tunisian people.