TMWR 2024 1

2024 Macro and Micro Trends in Mobility
For more information on UP.Partners, please visit our website at www.up.partners

2
03 63
10 82
27 102
40 115
140
3
HUNTER GATHERERS WOULD CONSIDER US GODS…
Source: @sporadicalia
4
Things are relatively good for us humans

Life expectancy
PDP/cap
% not living in extreme poverty
Energy capture (kcal/cap/day)
War-making capacity
% living in a democracy
British Industrial Revolution

The Enlightenment
Scientific Revolution
European Renaissance
Black Death (~9.7% pop. loss)
Genghis Khan (~9.5% pop. loss)
An Lushan Rebellion (~5.6% pop. loss)
Fall of the Western Roman Empire
-1000 -750 -500 -250 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000
Protestant Reformation
Industry spreads to the periphery
2 world wars + Spanish flu (together, ~7% pop. loss)
Source: Luke Muehlhauser

5
And it’s actually

22,000
Into the future
Into the future

20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
A LONG-TERM TIMELINE OF TECHNOLOGY
getting better mostly
12,000
10,000
8,000
From the distant past, to our lifetime, and into the distant future 3,000
5,000
6,000
4,000
because of technology
2200
2175
2150
2125
CRISPR gene editing technology and mRNA vaccines e 2100 Today’s young children might
AI systems become more powerful and widely used im
et live well into the 22nd century.
Smartphones r lif 2075
Humanity expanding into space
Fist multinational space station (ISS) Ou and setting on other planets?
The Internet: the first web browser and first website were released in 1991 2050
1980: First eradication of a human disease (Smallpox) Human-level Artificial Intelligence?
1969: Moon landing
Discovery of DNA
The first computers
Now
Nuclear bomb 2000
Antibiotics (Penicillin) From 1800 to now:
Television To show the many inventions in this
Synthetic fertilizer 1975 period of rapid technological
Automobile change, we stretched out the
The global life expectancy was lower 1950
than 30 years until about 1870 Electric light timeline.
Telephone
Telegraph 1925
Photography 1900 1903: The Wright Brothers fly the first plane
Steam locomotive 1850 1875
1800 1825 Microscope Printing press
The first vaccine, the Glasses
smallpox vaccine Scientific 1500
Revolution 1000
Steam engine
Gunpowder
The year 0 The first windmills
Paper
Beginning of the Iron Age 1000 years BCE The last twelve millennia:
2,000 years BCE Around 3,000 BCE the Stone Age - which lasted 3.3 Each line represents 1000 years
4,000 years BCE million years - ends and the Bronze Age begins.
6,000 years BCE Around the same time the wheel was invented.
8,000 years BCE Earliest evidence of writing.
9,000 years BCE
The Agricultural
Revolution happened
around 10,000 BCE
200,000 years ago: beds

300,000 years ago: The spiral shows the distant past:
the origin of our Each turn represents 200,000 years
species, Homo sapiens 1 million years ago: First use of
controlled fire and cooling
3,4 million years ago: First tool use,

60,000 years ago: by ancestors of our species
bow and arrow
43,000 years ago: the oldest
musical instrument, a flute
Source: OurWorldinData.org
6
technology has given

US mobility solutions
that our ancestors
only dreamed of
7
we’re doing a heck of job of Democratizing the cost of mobility

Development of transport costs at real rates
Cost in 2005 indexed to 1
1,000
Sea Freight
-3.56% CAGR Air Freight
-6.17% CAGR
100
Space Freight
-8.16% CAGR
10
Rail Freight
-3.92% CAGR
0.1
1830 40 50 60 70 80 90 1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 10 20 2023
Source: UP.Partners analysis including data from McKinsey and the Center for Strategic and International Studies
8
progress is accelerating due to these converging exponential technologies

Autonomous Systems
Electrification
Connectivity
Artificial Intelligence
Advanced Materials and Manufacturing
Sensors and Advanced Navigation Systems

TODAY
Battery Technology and Energy Storage
Propulsive Technologies
Sustainable and Renewable Energy Sources
Computing Power
9
As a result – Mobility is Changing Everything, everywhere, all at once

Micromobility Urban Mobility Intercity Mobility Long-Distance Mobility
Shared Electric motorbike Ride Van Car Autonomous Electric Air taxi Car hire Car pooling buses hyperloop Electric Shared Supersonic Space
Scooter/Bike bike hailing pooling sharing driving vehicles flying private jets /hypersonic travel
0 MI 1 MI 2 MI 4 MI 6 MI 8 MI 10 MI 12 MI 14Ml 60 MI 120 MI 180 MI 240 MI 300 MI 500 MI 5000 MI 10000MI ∞ MI

Average Distance per trip
Source: UP.Partners analysis based on original mapping from Lufthansa Innovation Hub’s TNMT.com
10
11
“In 1945, we began a new world order.

There’s always some kind of conflict at the
beginning, and the system changes. New
folks are in charge, and they set the rules.”
- Ray Dalio
12
The single largest

customer of mobility
related technologies is The
U.S. Department of defense
Source: UP.Partners research

13
Let us remember How the dod has catalyzed some of our most prized
inventions/Inventors
Hydraulic Radar and Silicon Polaroid Microwave

Brakes anti-radar Valley Oven
Malcolm Lockheed Developed during WWII, Frederick Terman ran Edwin Land developed the Percy Spencer, a
invented hydraulic this technology enabled radio research for the spy cameras for the U2 Raytheon engineer,
brakes, revolutionizing countries to identify and DOD, then became the and was the personal accidentally discovered
braking systems. track enemy aircraft and “Father of Silicon Valley.” hero of Steve Jobs. microwave heating in
missiles. 1945, leading to the
invention of the
microwave oven.
Apple Digital the gps 3d graphic

photography Internet technology boards
Steve Wozniak's father NASA and defense The ARPANET project, GPS technology created Lockheed's partnership
moved to Silicon Valley to agency research greatly backed by the US to track Soviet with Sega (Real3D) led to
work for Lockheed. advanced space Department of Defense to submarines. the development of
reconnaissance link research institutions, graphic boards for 3D
technology. evolved into today's rendering, significantly
internet. impacting modern design
in multiple industries.
14
THANK YOU UNCLE SAM FOR MY IPHONE
First generation iPod Dram cache iphone

(2001) DARPA (2007)
Microprocessor
DARPA
Micro hard drive Cellular technology

DoE/DARPA US Military
Lithium-ion batteries Multi-touch screen

DoE DoE, CIA/NSF DoD
Liquid-crystal display navstar-gps

NIH, NSF, DoD DoE, NAVY
Click-wheel HTTP/HTML
RRE, CERN, CERN
Signal compression SIRI

Army Research Office DARPA
Source: UP.Partners research (https://nintil.com/mazzucato-and-the-iphone-i/)

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World’s 2nd largest military is the chinese people’s liberation army

Military Aspect United States China
Military Personnel
2,217,500 2,545,000
(Active & Reserve)
Total Aircraft Strength 13,209 3,304
Fighter Aircraft 1,854 1,207
Fleet Strength 472 730
Aircraft Carriers 11 2
Submarines 64 61
Tanks 4,657 5,000
Armored Vehicles 360,069 174,300
Defense Budget $831,781,000,000 $227,000,000,000
Source: GlobalFirepower.com
16
Chinese Military Civil Fusion (MCF) National Policy is working — FAST

MCF can be defined as a strategy that strives to reinforce the PRC’s ability to build the country into an economic, technological,
and military superpower by fusing the country’s military and civilian industrial and science and technology resources.
Occurrence of MCF and CMI in Five Occurrence of MCF and CMI

Year Plan’s (FYP) Documents in Academic Publications
12
10 2,500
8 2,000
6 1,500
4 1,000
2 500
0 0
8th FYP 9th FYP 10th FYP 11th FYP 12th FYP 13th FYP
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016
1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020
Civil-Military Integration Military-Civilian Fusion
Source: CSIS Trustee Chain in Chinese Business & Economics, People’s Daily and China Knowledge Resource Integrated Database
17
According to ASPI, China’s global lead extends to 37 out of 44 critical technologies!

Artificial intelligence, computing, and
Advanced material and manufacturing Energy and environment Defense, space, robotics, and transportation
communications
High Performance Computing Nanoscale materials Hydrogen and ammonia CubeSats
Circuit design Coatings Supercapacitors Space launch
Natural Language Processing Smart materials Electric batteries Hypersonics
Advanced RF communication Advanced composites Photovoltaics Drone swarming
Advanced optical communication Novel metamaterials Nuclear waste management Advanced robotics
AI High-specification machining Directed energy Autonomy
Blockchain Advanced explosives Biofuels Quantum
Advanced data analytics Critical minerals extraction Nuclear energy Quantum computing
Machine learning Superconductors Biotechnology, gene technology, and vaccines Post-quantum cryptography
Cybersecurity Advanced protection Vaccines Quantum communications
Sensing, timing, and navigation Chemical synthesis Biological manufacturing Quantum sensors
Photonic sensors Additive manufacturing Synthetic biology
Source: Australian Strategic Policy Institute

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This is empire
building. Again.
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By far the most rapid shift in the world’s economic center of gravity
happened in 2000-10, reversing previous decades of development
Evolution of the earth’s economic center of gravity1
AD 1 to 2025
1990
1970 2000
1960 1980
1950
1940 2010
1913
2025
1820
1500
AD 1
1000
1
Economic center of gravity is calculated by weighting locations by GDP in three dimensions and projects to the nearest point on the earth’s surface. The surface projection of the center of
gravity shifts north over the course of the century, reflecting the fact that in three-dimensional space America and Asia are not only “next” to each other,but also “across” from each other.
Source: Mckinsey Global Institute analysis using data from Angus Maddison; University of Groningen
20
The west has a long tail, structural, educational Challenge

Do you know what most kids' dream job is today? Top countries by number of STEM Graduates
Graduates is Science, Technology, Engineering
1 2 3 and Mathematics in 2020
is social media is professional is YouTuber

3.57m
influencer gamer
2.55m
Palmer Luckey @PalmerLuckey
You can’t tell kids to follow their

dreams when their dreams suck.
820k
520k
300k
238k 221k 220k 216K 211k 192k
Do you know what it was in 1971?
Astronaut 󰥗🌙 China India US Russia Indonesia Brazil Mexico France Germany Iran Japan
Source: UP.Partners research Source: OECD and the statistical yearbooks of Russia, Indonesia, Iran, India, and China
21
Meanwhile, 2 billion people in 64 countries

representing 40% of global GDP will have
national ELECTIONS in 2024
The results of these elections will have an impact on the future of
mobility (Net zero? War? Repealing of IRA? Nuclear? Etc.)
Taiwan Russia South Korea Mexico UK US
0.7% of 2.2% of 1.6% of 1.4% of 3.0% of 25% of

Global GDP Global GDP Global GDP Global GDP Global GDP Global GDP
jAN FEB MAR APR jUN SEP NOV
Indonesia India Japan
1.3% of 3.4% of 4.2% of

Global GDP Global GDP Global GDP
Source: UP.Partners research, Sputnik estimates and research based on data from national websites of governments, election commissions, and the World Bank.
22
From 51 defense companies, to 5, to a resurgence of new names AFGHAN

NONCOMBATANT DEFENSE
DOD “LAST FEDERAL ACQUISITION CHINA MILITARIZED THE EVACUATION
STREAMLINING ACT OF 1994 SPRATLY ISLANDS/REEFS OPERATIONS INVASION OF ECOSYSTEM’S
SUPPER” PASSED BY CONGRESS 9/11 (NEO) UKRAINE FIRST BREAKFAST
"The Last Supper"
refers to a pivotal 1993
meeting held by
then-U.S. Secretary of Project
Maven
Defense Aspin and
Deputy Secretary Perry
with leaders of major
defense contractors.
This event marked a
significant moment in
the consolidation of the
defense industry. 51
companies consolidated
into 5.
$ $
$15.9B VC $s Invested $33B VC $s Invested
in A&D Companies in A&D Companies
Palantir 1st Appellate Court 8th Palantir

sues U.S. Palantir upholds DoD
Army for DoD findings against Program
right to Program U.S. Army
compete
Falcon 1 SpaceX sues Air 100th 100th Starlink

first Force for right successful mission
successful to compete SpaceX rocket
launch launch
10
20
16
22
21
15
19
14
18
23
17
20 3
25
20 3
08
93
01
99
02
20
94
1
0
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
19
20
19
20
19
Changes lp agreement to permit

investing in lethal weapons American dynamism Natsec100
1- Logos included above only include defense tech companies launches launched by
with a ≥1B valuation at the time of publication silicon valley
Launches defense vertical defense group
Source: Palantir
23
DoD budget rises with conflict → attracts VC investment
U.S Military Spending Is VC Investment into Defense Rises

Approaching $1 Trillion in Lockstep with SBIR Awards
$2B $4.8 B
Biden 2024
$1,200 World Request
War II $1.8B $4.3 B
9/11
Wars
$1.6B $3.8 B
$1,000
$1.4B $3.4 B
SBIR Awards
Capital Raised
$800 $1.2B $2.9 B
Reagan
Vietnam
Billions
War
Korean $1B $2.4 B
$600 War
$800M $1.9 B
$400 $600M $1.4 B
$400M $1.0 B
$200
$200M $0.5 B
$ $0
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
VC SBIR Awards
Source: Office of management and Budget. Constant 2024 dollars. Source: PitchBook Data and SBIR.gov
24
Defense Technology is getting VC Attention

A shift from the deployment of purely “patriotic capital”
to the deployment of “momentum capital.”
Hive mind Swarming

Last year at Defense Ventures Summit
there were <200 attendees. This year
there were 700 and the event was
oversubscribed. There were 100+ VC
firms in attendance investing in defense.
announced that it’s raising announced an announced a $79M raise at

an additional $400-500M, incremental $300M raise a $335M valuation, just
less than a year after its to its Series F, reaching a four months after its $5.7M
$1.5B Series E at a $8.5B $2.7B valuation seed round
post-money valuation
Source: UP.Partners research, Pitchbook Data and Building our Defense Newsletter (by Andrew Glenn)
25
Market size and number of VCs focused on Defense sector are growing rapidly
The number of VC funds investing in Defense Tech is growing

Defense Tech Market Size Estimate ($B) faster than the Defense Tech market itself
$10,000 80
$9,000
70
15.9% CAGR
30%
$8,000
60
$7,000
50
$6,000
$5,000 40
$4,000
30
$3,000
20
$2,000
10
76.1 184.7 $1,000
$- 0
2022 2027 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
AUM # Funds
Source: Pitchbook . Geography: US, UK, Canada, Australia and New Zealand Source: UP.Partners research and Pitchbook Data
26
Public sentiment for defense technology has flipped

The younger generation is energized and enthusiastic about defense technology
From: to:
34%
Googlers protesting and signing petition to of US tech workers more likely
shut down Project Maven (2018) than last year to apply skills to
military project (2023)
Sign this letter
Dear Sundar,
We believe that Google should not be in the business
of war. Therefore we ask that Project Maven be
cancelled, and that Google draft, publicize and
enforce a clear policy stating that neither Google nor
its contractors will ever build warfare technology.
Source: BBC, Axios, Morning Consult and UP.Partners research

27
28
“It doesn’t matter what country or

what political system you are from.
Space brings you together.”
- Valentina Tereshkova, Soviet Cosmonaut and

Youngest Woman in Space
29
Constellations, up 10x in 4 years — Dollars spent, up 3X in 10 years

Projected total number of satellites in orbit Global space activity by category, 2007-2027
Projected number of satellites in GEO and non-GEO orbits,
2021-2030. Increasing rate of launch will lead to increased
congestion, especially in LEO.
$.900B
60,000
$.800B
$.700B
45,000 $.600B
$.500B
30,000 $.400B
$.300B
15,000 $.200B
$.100B
0.00 $.B
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023e
2024e
2025e
2026e
2027e
LEO and Other (excl. Starlink) LEO (Starlink) GEO Commercial Commercial Space Non-U.S. U.S.
Infrastructure and Products and Government Government
Support Industries Services Space Budgets Space Budgets
GEO: Geostationary Satellites
LEO: Low Earth Orbit
Source: AXA, XL, NSR. Spacenews graphic by Robin McDowall Source: The Space Foundation
30
Orbital launch attempts 2000-2023 Cost to low-earth orbit per kg

2021 prices US Russia China Other
US Russia China Other Log scale

$100,000
120
Space Shuttle
100
80 Soyuz Falcon 1
10,000
60
Invasion of Ukraine Saturn V Neutron*
Rocket Lab
40 Falcon 9
Falcon Heavy
1,000
20
1,000
Successful
250 SpaceX
launches
0 Starship*
‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 ‘21 ‘22 ‘23
1960 70 80 90 2000 10 20 24
Year of first launch
Source: RussianSpaceWeb Source: The Economist estimates
31
SPAcecraft upmass carried by launch provider

SpaceX launched about 214,095kg of spacecraft upmass in Q2 of 2023, followed by CASC with about 23,069 kg
Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) 214,095

China Aerospace Science and 23,069
Technology Corporation (CASC)
Roscosmos (Russian Space Agency) 8,100
China National Space 8,082
Administration (CNSA)
Arianespace
Launch Service Provider
United Launch Alliance (ULA) 5,963

5,000
GK Launch Services
3,168
Indian Space Research
Organization (ISRO) 2,722
CAS Space 912
Korea Aerospace Research 202
Institute (KARI) 100
i-Space 21
20
Rocket Lab
8
ExPace 5
Space Pioneer
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
Korean Committee of Space
Technology (North Korea)
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000

Total Spacecraft Upmass (kg)
Source: UP.Partners research and Bryce Tech. Includes estimates of spacecraft mass when not publicly disclosed.
32
China is going all in on space

Elon Musk replied
Chris Hadfield @Cmdr_Hadfield

"By 2030, the Chinese people will definitely
be able to set foot on the Moon. That's not a
problem," Wu, chief designer of the lunar
exploration program, said.
Read: https://shorturl.at/kmwPV
China is landing
Elon Musk @elonmusk reusable rockets
The China space
program is far more
advanced than most
people realize

33
The Chinese competitors — there are many of them!
SPACE PIONEER DEEP BLUE ISPACE CAS SPACE ORIENSPACE GALACTIC ENERGY

34
Non-Chinese Competitive landscape

New space Ol’ reliables
Rocket Blue Spacex Northrop Esa Ula Spacex Spacex ULA

astra lab origin firefly relativity spinLaunch abl stoke starship minotaur vega Atlas v Transporter Vulcan
Falcon 9
Year founded 2016 2006 2000 2017 2015 2014 2017 2019 2002 2000 2012 2002 2010 2021 2024
orbit LEO LEO LEO LEO LEO LEO LEO LEO LEO LEO LEO LEO LEO LEO LEO/GTO
$/kg $13,167 $16,333 - $15,000 $8,113 $5,000 $8,889 $250 $100 $30,500 $25,517 $8,100 $2,700 $6,000 $4,044
Successful 2 36 24 0 1 0 0 0 0 19 20 99 282 9 1
Orbital flights
funding Public Public ~$1b/ $226m $1.33b $179m $481m $175m $9.4b Public Public JV $9.4b JV
$9.4b
year
*Roughly scaled proportional to height. Proportionate to illustrations, SpaceX Starship still significantly larger than how it is represented vs other products, due to formatting.
35
Nasa artemis mission is pretty darn complex to get to the moon and back, again
LANDER IS A MODIFIED SECOND

Each moon landing requires**
STAGE OF A LAUNCH VEHICLE
8
STARSHIP +
SUPER HEAVY
LAUNCHES
TW ORION
BOCA CHICA, TX DOCKINGS FOR 126 FT
CREW TRANSFER DISTANCE
FROM
STARSHIP
MATCH TO
12 DAYS LATER LUNAR
SURFACE
12 DAYS LATER
12 DAYS LATER
12 DAYS LATER
12 DAYS LATER
12 DAYS LATER
12 DAYS LATER LUNAr SURFACE
SUPER HEAVY
1 PROPELLANT DEPOT
1 HLS STARSHIP
Cryogenic refill in orbit
Source: NASA’s source selection statement from July 30, 2021 GAO report referencing SpaceX proposal.
36
Assuming this works, Apollo = ~$36B/ton to

the moon vs. SpaceX = ~$70M/ton to the moon
Cost per ton of payload to the moon: Apollo vs. Space X starship HLS
Starship
HLS
$36B
10¹⁰
Cost per Ton (in dollars
109
Apollo Lunar
Lander
108 $70M
Apollo SpaceX Starship HLS
Source: UP.Partners research. Approximate estimates.

37
NO WONDER SPACE TECH HAS SECURED

ANOTHER strong YEAR OF VC INVESTMENTS
VC Investment in Space Tech
9 350
8
300
7
250
6
Capital Raised ($B)

200
5
Deals
4 150
3
100
2
50
1
0 0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Capital Raised Deals
Source: PitchBook Data Inc.

38
Space spacs: enormous value has been destroyed

Space: Stock Price as % SPAC valuation
Companies Current Market Cap NYS: SPCE
(Market Cap at time of SPAC) As of Feb 8, 2024 NAS: MNTS
NAS: ASTR
100% NYS: SPIR
Virgin Galactic (SPCE) $2B $704M
NAS: SATL
NYS: LLAP
Momentus (MNTS) $1.5B $8,5M
NYS: BKSY
$44M NAS: RDW
Astra Space (NAS: ASTR) $2.6B
NAS: LUNR
50%
$177M NAS: ASTS
Spire (NYS: SPIR)) $1.6B
NYS: PL
Satellogic (NAS: SATL) $1.1B $122M NAS: RKLB
Terran Orbital (LLAP) $1.8B $167M

0%
Jun 21 Sep 21 Dec 21 Mar 22 Jul 22 Oct 22 Jan 23 May 23 Aug 23 Nov 23
BlackSky (BKSY) $1.5B $203M
Redwire (Jacksonville) (NYS: RDW) $675M $193M
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) $1.2B $110M

-50%
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) $1.8B $406M
Planet Labs (PL) $2.8B $636M
Rocket Lab (RKTLB) $4.8B $2.1B -100%
Source: Pitchbook, Reporting by Michael Sheetz/CNBC and UP.Partners research Source: Michael Sheetz / CNBC
39
Hardware to watch
Blue Origin New Glenn

Stoke Space
expected to launch in 2024
40
41
“80% of living humans

today have never flown
on an airplane.”
- Boeing
42
Reaching for the stars: the 2023 new air travel leaderboard
New air travel startups ranked by VC funding raised
0nm Range 5,000+ nm
Electric Aviation
h2
SYSTEMS evtol estol ectol hydrogen Supersonic Hypersonic
Note: Includes scale-up firms that are usually not considered a “startup company” any longer
Source: UP.Partners research, Lufthansa Innovation Hub Analysis, TNMT.com, PitchBook Data Inc.
43
2nd only to the war in Ukraine, Walmart is the

biggest driver of drone development in the world
“…the largest drone delivery

expansion of any U.S.
retailer, bringing drone
delivery to 1.8 million
additional households in the
Dallas-Fort-Worth area…”
- John Furner, Walmart U.S. CEO
Source: https:/
Source: Walmart public communications
/www.linkedin.com/posts/furner_ces2024-genai-ar-activity-7151358232005853184-RSLM?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop
44
Walmart is beating amazon in the race to establish routine drone delivery

$2B invested
100 Prime Air in 10 years Jan: Amazon cuts
Announced Prime employees fired
Air Concept video April: Bloomberg 140 more Prime
in UK Air employees
reports 5 drone
Jeff Bezos predicts June: drone crashes Dec: first drone
85% Amazon Receives FAA Receives overheated, delivery
delivery by drones Nov: 18601B exemption
experimental FAA Part crashed, and
in“4-5 years” on airworthiness 125 started a 25-acre Dec: Flubbed first May: 100
60 Minutes certificate Approval bushfire in OR commercial delivery deliveries
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Oct: Applies Began Files for Sept: First commercial May: 4 million Partnered Adding 1.8M
with FAA to testing 94 drone Trialed drone delivery in households w/ Wing people to
test drone drone patents, delivery U.S. (Arkansas), eligible network
deliveries delivery compared of COVID with Zipline 36 delivery across DFW
with tests 6000 paid hubs across 7
Amazon’s June: Invested deliveries states Completed
54 in DroneUP (Arizona, over 20,000
Arkansas, deliveries in
Nov: partnership with Florida, North
DroneUP, Flytrex last two
Carolina, years
“hundreds of Texas, Utah
drone deliveries” and Virginia.)
“I’m an optimist. Could it be
four, five years? I think so.
It will work, and it will happen, vs.
and it’s gonna be a lot of fun.”
Amazon only has Walmart has over
Footprint ~100 active FCs 4,600 stores within 90%
—Jeff Bezos on CBS’s 60 minutes, in of the US population
2013, talking about drone deliveries.
Amazon is vertically Walmart partners w/
Partnerships integrated leading drone OEMs
Source: UP.Partners research, Business Wire, Amazon and Walmart public information
45
Drones aren't just cool — they’re Cheaper than ground delivery

Delivery costs for
5-mile delivery of Electric car Electric van Internal combustion Drone Drone
a 216-cubic-inch 1 package, 1 driver 1 package, 1 driver engine (ICE) van 1 package, 1 drone 1 package, 15 drones
package (6 inches 1 package, 1 driver per observer per observer
per side), $
Labor costs
~9.40 ~11.00 ~11.60 ~12.70 ~4.00

Energy costs
0.06
Other costs¹
0.45 0.55
2.50 0.06
7.25 1.70 7.25 3.11 7.25 12.04
1.82 3.34
0.60
0.60
Emissions,
kilograms CO2
equivalent²
1.40 2.08 6.40 1.07 1.07
¹Other costs include
asset, maintenance,
and insurance costs.
²Scopes 2 and 3.
Source: McKinsey & Company

and UP.Partners Research
46
IN THE MEANTIME, THE BUSINESS OF UNMANNED CARGO DRONES IS ALREADY REAL AND BOOMING
Commercial drone deliveries are projected to exceed 1 million in 2023 Major use cases for cargo drones
Commercial drone deliveries Commercial drone deliveries Short Distance Long
by use case (thousand) by region (thousand)
Heavy
1200
1,044 1,044 Transportation
1000 of air freight
874 874
800 Supply of medical
Commercial
goods
+135% +135% cargo delivery
of heavy goods
Per annum Per annum
600 Drone deliveries in mostly rural
507 507 Parcel delivery areas (in
of medical
(first/last mile)
Weight
supplies to small testing)
400 landing areas.
Transportation
Automation of of small
200 164 164 intralogistics packages via
autonomous
6 34 6 34 Transportation and guided
0 drones.
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 of material
within factories
Forecast Forecast or warehouses
via drones.
Last-mile logistics Latin America
Restaurants North America
Light
Grocery/convenience Europe
Healthcare Africa
Asia-Pacific
Note: Number of deliveries represents number of parcels delivered, not total number
of items within the parcels.
Source: McKinsey Drone Delivery Tracker and Forecast Source: UP.Partners research and Roland Berger
47
THE PILOT SHORTAGE WILL Global pilot demand versus supply

FURTHER PUSH AUTONOMOUS In number of pilots
TECHNOLOGY ADVANCEMENTS
65k pilot
shortage
Bloomberg @business
Hong Kong-based airline Cathay Pacific slashed
the number of flying hours needed to become a
captain by 25%, people familiar with the matter
said, as a pilot shortage contributes to mass
flight cancellations
Source: Oliver Wyman

48
“We wanted flying cars, instead we got 140 characters.” - Peter Thiel, 2013
Actually, Peter, it only Customer deliveries

began in 2023
took an extra 10 years, No pilot license required
but we got us some
flying cars!
Source: thevcfactory.com Source: UP.Partners research, The VC Factory and Pivotal public information
49
Electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (eVTOLS) HAVE ATTRACTED
significant COMMERCIAL INTEREST
Orders continue to flow in, with a total backlog of 18,000 aircraft Share of evtol commitments by company and type
worth an estimated $111 billion.
Total publicly disclosed orders by time period, 1 thousands
United Airlines
18.0
0.1 Undisclosed Owner
3.3
Avolon
American Airlines
Bristow Group Inc
5.3
Azul
Republic Airways
Marubeni Aerospace Corporation
8.0
0.1 7.2 GlobalX
1.4 0.1
1.4 FlyBlade India
Half-year trend
2.5 Falko
2.2 9.4
2.8 Azorra Aviation
0.8 1.4 Volocopter Chengdu
1.0 4.1 3.5 0.4
0.1
0.1 0.4 0.3
0.5 Virgin Atlantic Airways
1.0 1.5
0.2 0.6
NetJets
Pre-2020 2020 2021 2022 2022H1 2023 YTD CTD*
Sum of Total
7.9 0.9 51.9 44.5 17.6 6.1 111.3 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
Order Value
$ billion
ALIA-250 Atea Butterfly Eve
Passenger eVTOL Cargo drone
Lithium Jet Midnight Volocity VX4
Sustainable aviation Supersonic jets
1
As of June9,2023; figures may not sum, because of rounding. Graph is showing commitments for those with a >3% share of the total number.
*CTD: Cumulative to Date Source: Cirium Fleets Analyzer as at 8th May 2023
50
Yet, the EVTOL MARKET IS STILL VERY VERY CROWDED; AAM Reality Index
First
OEM (stock) ARI Funding ($M) Use Case Vehicle Type Propulsion Operation Vehicle EIS Country
Flight
Multicopter / Lift VoloCity / 2021 / 2024 /

Volocopter ↔ 8.3 $761.0* Air Taxi Electric Piloted Germany
+ Cruise VoloRegion 2022 2026
Tourism, EMS,
Multicopter/Lift EH216-S / 2018 / 2023 /
Ehang (EH) ↔ 8.0 $185.0 Firefighting, Air Electric Autonomous China
+ Cruise VT-30 2021 -
Taxi
Joby (JOBY) ↔ 8.0 $2,261.1 Air Taxi Vectored Thrust Electric Piloted - 2018 2025 USA
Cargo, Regional, Conventional / CX300 / 2020 / 2025 /

Beta ↔ 8.0 $985.0 Electric Piloted USA
Air Taxi Lift + Cruise Alia-250 2022 2026
Archer (ACHR) ↔ 7.9 $1,096.3 Air Taxi Vectored Thrust Electric Piloted Midnight 2023 2025 USA
Corporate
Charles Alcock
Wisk (Boeing) ↔ 7.4 Air Taxi Vectored Thrust Electric Autonomous Generation 6 - - USA
backed @AlcockNews
Eve (EVEX) ↔ 7.2 $377.4 Air Taxi Lift + Cruise Electric Piloted Eve 2024 2026 Brazil
20 years after the aircraft’s first flight
Air Taxi, Cargo, and 11 years after @LDO_Helicopters
Vertical (EVTL) ↔ 7.1 $347.8 Vectored Thrust Electric Piloted VX4 2023 2027 UK
EMS applied for a type certificate for the
Regional, Cargo,
#AW609 #tiltrotor, the @FAANews has
Lilium (LILM) ↑ 7.0 $1,342.3 Vectored Thrust Electric Piloted Jet 2024 2026 Germany launched a consultation over how it
Biz Av
proposes to approve it. Patience is a
Corporate virtue #eVTOL pioneers:
Pipistrel (Textron) ↔ 7.0 Cargo Lift + Cruise Hybrid Autonomous Nuuva V300 2024 2025 USA
backed
Autonomous / CarryAll / 2023 / 2024 /

AutoFlight ↔ 6.9 $200.0 Cargo, Air Taxi Lift + Cruise Electric China
Piloted Prosperity I 2022 2027
Corporate EMS, Tourism, CityAirbus

Airbus ↔ 6.5 Lift + Cruise Electric Piloted 2024 - France
backed Air Taxi NextGen
Corporate
Supernal ↔ 6.5 Air Taxi, Cargo Vectored Thrust Electric Piloted S-A1 2024 2028 South Korea
backed
Source: UP.Partners research (https://aamrealityindex.com/)

51
Has Beta won the

EVTOL Charger Wars?
RME
JHW
MVY
BETA Charging Network
AGC PNE
BAK
SNS BCB
Paul Brinkmann @paulBrinkmann VBT TYS
GTR FLO
Electric air taxi developer @Lilium cofounder
Daniel Weigand says on investor call that the AGS
company’s batteries will be chargeable with
charging stations made by US company BETA
Technologies, which use the automotive CEW TLH
LCH HUM
industry’s CCS standard, along with ORL
@ArcherAviation.
November 6, 2023 | Archer Aviation and BETA

Technologies Collaborate to Accelerate the Adoption
of an interoperable Charging System across the
Luke Fischer @FischerLukeM electric aviation industry
So that makes Lilium, Archer, and obviously Beta
using Beta chargers. Joby doing their own thing?
Paul Brinkmann @paulBrinkmann

Joby tells me they have others who want to use
their charging system, and they will announce
those soon, but they have not yet.
Source: UP.Partners research and public company announcements

52
Chinese company E-Hang

receives first official type
certificate, Makes World’s
First Commercial Electric
Air Taxi Flight
Source: UP.Partners research and Aviation Week

53
EVTOL FIRMS WILL HAVE TO WEATHER A TOUGHER INVESTOR CLIMATE

Stock price performance of major EVTOL companies in 2023
Joby Archer Vertical EVE EHang
Companies Current 20.00%
(Market Cap at Market Cap
time of SPAC) As of January 2024
0.00%
Joby $6.6B $4.3B

-20.00%
Archer $2.7B $1.6B
Vertical $2.2B $157M -40.00%
EVE $2.4B $1.8B

-60.00%
EHang $590M $747M
-80.00%
-100.00%
Apr 21 Jul 21 Oct 21 Feb 22 May 22 Aug 22 Dec 22 Mar 23 Jun 23 Dec 23 Jan 24
Source: UP.Partners analysis based on data from Pitchbook

54
Meanwhile, we have an innovation problem in commercial aviation
1903 1964 2024
737-100 737-MAX8
Wright Flyer
Patrick Collison @patrickc

As of later this year (October 5, specifically),
the commencement of the design of the
Boeing 737 will be closer to the Wright
brothers’ Kitty Hawk flight than it will to the
present day.

55
Efficiency gains are leveling OFF Efficiency gains in the last 70 years
came almost entirely from engines,
CO2 Emissions per PRK
not airframe innovation.
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
707 737
0.00 1950 2023
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Source: 2023 JetZero, Inc.

56
Blended wing body is first major airframe

innovation in 70 years 50% reduction in fuel burn
USAF Awarded U.S. startup JetZero $250MM to develop In 2020, Airbus released their concept for a BWB, the
BWB demonstrator for air-to-air refueling. MAVERIC. No new news from Airbus on their plans to
pursue the design — but it would not be a surprise to see it
In 1954 USAF awarded Boeing contract to develop KC-135 get accelerated in light of the JetZero success.
air-to-air refueler, which ultimately created the 707→ 737
we’re flying today — is this a repeat of history?
Source: UP.Partners research and public company announcements

57
Decarbonizing aviation is really really hard

Estimated reliance on electric vs. hydrogen vs. SAF for major aviation use cases
SAF Electric Hydrogen Fuel Cell Hydrogen Combustion
Commuter
• 9-50 seats
• < 60 min flights
• < 1% of industry CO2
Regional
• 50-100 seats
• 60-90 min flights
• ~3% of industry CO2
Short haul
• 100-150 seats
Medium haul
• 100-150 seats
Long haul
• 250+ seats
• > 150 min flights
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: Waypoint
58
ELECTRIFYING or SWITCHING TO HYdrogen likely has a limited impact, at a huge cost
If we electrified every flight under Electrifying or using hydrogen for flights

two hours we would affect 28% of more than two hours is currently not
aviation’s CO₂ emissions technically or financially feasible,
representing 72% of emissions
Source: Waypoint
59
the industry depends on sustainable alternative fuel (SAF) as a bridge technology

IATA projections on the emissions reduction contributions Projected fuel consumption of commercial airlines incl.
by technology type for a net-zero future for aviation share of SAF required to reach net-zero (in billion liters)
Sustainable
Aviation Fuel (SAF)
97% 65%
Other
• New aircraft
27% technology
• Carbon capture
• Operations &
infrastructure
2%
1% 8% Carbon Offsetting <0.05% 2% 5.2% 17% 39% 54% 65%
2025 2050 SAF Share
Source: IATA, FlyNetZero Source: Sustainable Aero Lab, IATA, Statista

60
Hydrogen, carbon, and energy cost inputs need to be reduced

to make SAF competitive; this might take over a decade
PtL fuel production cost (European-based PtL archetype¹)
$ per tonne of jet fuel
100% = 2,400-3,000
Carbon source
(DAC) 18%
1,900-2,300
Carbon source
10%
18% 1,600-1,900
Feedstock Hydrogen
costs 13% 15%
1,400-1,600
32%
~70-80% 15% 10%
by 2030 29% 17%
Renewable 29%
electricity 30%
28%
26%
26% 27%
3% 4% 4% 4%
Other opex
8% 11% 11% 12%
Fuel synthesis
2025 2030 2040 2050
Conventional fuel SAF fuel today
Cost per US gallon ~$9.20 ~$7.05 ~$5.83 ~$4.91 ~$6.44 ~$9.20
Notes (McKinsey): Assuming offshore wind-based renewables and H2 produced in Europe for $2.7/kg H2 in 2030, declining to $1.8/kg H2 by 2050; additional $0.2/kg H2 included for storage; carbon cost based on industrial
point source at $95/t CO2 capture with $5/t CO2 intermediate storage; DAC cost assumed $220/t CO2 in 2030, declining to $135/t CO2 by 2050; reverse water gas shift + Fischer-Tropsch technology configuration
Sources: McKinsey / WEF Report (2022); Globalair.com

61
NEW SAF APPROACHES ARE DRIVEN FORWARD BY A GROWING ECOSYSTEM OF STAKEHOLDERS
Early-Stage Startups Late-Stage Startups Emerging Traditional Fuel Services
Flight
Airport Distribution Feedstock
Biotech Energy
Refining Transport
Source: Sustainable Aero Lab Processing

62
While customers make saf commitments,

is it green washing or truly sustainable?
Coralie laurencin💡🌿🔋 @coralaurencin
Ryanair has contracts to get 9.5% of its fuel from
SAF by 2030 but its boss isn’t sure where the
supply will come from. Ryanair’s Michael O’leary:
‘There isn’t enough cooking oil in the world to
power one day of green aviation | Ryanair | The
Guardian

63
64
“Artificial intelligence
is whatever hasn’t
been done yet.”
- Larry Tesler, American Computer Scientist
Source: Benedict Evans - December 2023

65
Where does AI show up in mobility?
AUTONOMOUS DRIVING AUTONOMOUS FLYING discovering NEW MATERIALS AUTONOMOUSLY MANAGING

SUPPLY/DEMAND
GENERATIVE DESIGN AUTONOMY IN THE FACTORY HUMANOID robotics

66
The AI startup surge Nvidia can’t keep up

If your startup isn’t working on generative The rush to buy GPU compute
AI… what’s wrong with you? capacity (at 40% operating profit)
Y Combinator startups by field Other AI Nvidia quarterly revenue Data centre Gaming & other
by segment ($bn)
500
20
400
15
300
10
200
5
100
0 0
W 2015 W 2016 W 2017 W 2018 W 2019 W 2020 W 2021 W 2022 W 2023 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23
Source: Y Combinator Source: Nvidia

67
Where is all the money going in generative ai?

Distribution of generative AI funding, 2021-2022
VISUAL MEDIA MOTION CAPTURE LIP SYNC & VIDEO HYPER-REAL VISUAL ADS & GENERATIVE INTERFACES
$822M / 58 DEALS ANIMATION
$14M
PERSONALIZATION
$4M
DEEPFAKE VIDEOS
$15M
MARKETING
$15M $586M / 20 DEALS MOBILITY
GRAPHICS
Consumer
social apps &
Enterprise & PRODUCT
IMAGES & NFTS
$114M
GENERAL
SEARCH
Human-machine when is this
tools AI avatars DESIGN
$22M $85M interfaces coming?
$133M $253M $290M
PHOTO & VIDEO SYNTHETIC
?
EDITING TOOLS TRAINING DATA
$131M $126M
PRODUCTIVITY & KNOWLEDGE

MANAGEMENT
CROSS-FUNCTIONAL (APIS) SOCIAL MEDIA & SUMMARIZATION $211M
$199M
$249M MARKETING CONTENT
$317M Audio editing Music Code completion
$80M generation $103M
$47M
Voice dubbing Voice synthesis &

CUSTOMER SUPPORT $42M cloning Command line Website &
$65M $43M $103M app $10M
SALES EMAIL & PERSONAL WRITING

Documentation Text-to-code
TEXT OUTREACH
$15M
& STORYTELLING
$6M SPEECH & AUDIO CODE $3M $4M
$852M / 48 DEALS $212M / 26 DEALS $140M / 20 DEALS

Source: CB Insights
Based on an analysis of 210+ generative AI companies building cross-industry enterprise solutions; excludes deals do industry-specific companies and model developers such as OpenAI.
68
neural networks are being trained to bring our machines to life
from: to:
Making pretty AI Neural Networks for training Robots
pictures is cool Neural networks for training
machines to include cars, planes,
humanoids, etc. is coming

69
Neural networks are the “final piece of the puzzle” for Tesla FSD V12
TESLARATI @Teslarati - Jan 21
Buckle up cause Tesla FSD Beta v12.12 is With Tesla FSD 12 the power of neural networks is
hitting the streets. Testers report unleashed, deleting 300,000 lines of C++ code in
smoother rides with zero intervention or exchange for a model trained on millions of video clips.
takeovers. #TeslaFSD #SelfDrivingCars
Photons in Controls out

70
If we can do this in cars, we are not far away from being

able to do this with planes using the same framework
You just need the training data and the controls both in
the plane and in the cockpit. Are we in for robot
co-pilots soon?
The controls in the plane are already built in: Autopilot
The controls in the cockpit are next: A humanoid robot?
Yes No

71
TEsla’s ai training advantage

200,000,000
180,000,000
160,000,000
FSD vll wide release, merging highway and
non-highway.
140,000,000
120,000,000
Miles
100,000,000
80,000,000
Waymo announces "hundreds of Waymo announces 1 million
thousands" of autonomous miles. autonomous miles.
60,000,000
Expansion of FSD testing program — users with Cruise announces 1 million
lower safety scores gain access. autonomous miles.
40,000,000
Cruise announces 2 million
autonomous miles.
20,000,000
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
Months Since Launch
Note: We define the data points as follows: Cruise - "fully driverless miles" i.e. from when Cruise completed its first driverless ride in November 2021. Waymo - "public rider-only
miles" i.e. from when Waymo's public service opened up in October 2020. Tesla FSD - when Tesla began disclosing FSD miles in February 2021.
Source: ARK Investment Management LLC Tesla, Cruise, Waymo.

72
Number of annual u.s. Pedestrian ADJUSTED crashes per MILLION

fatalities, 1980-2022 MILES ON SURFACE STREETS ONLY
25
25
8,070 8,126
8,000
20
7,000
15
6,000
10
Iphone
5.3
5,000 came out 5
1.7 2
0.3
4,000
4,302 0
Tesla in FSD Manually Driven Waymo National Average Cruise
2022*
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
(2023) Tesla (avg 2022) (2023) (2021) (2023)
ARK Company ARK Company
Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted Adjusted
Notes: Cruise and Waymo figures are for the first million miles driven in each service. Both companies adjusted figures for a more apples to apples comparison of what would be reported in the national average statistics. The
National Average and the Tesla statistics Sources: ARK Investment Management LLC, 2023.
https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/traffic-crash-death-estimates-2022#:~:text-The%20National%20Highway%20Traffic%20Safety,42%2C939%20fatalities%20reported%20for%202021,
https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport, https://waymo.com/blog/2023/02/first-million-rider-only-miles-how.html, https://getcruise.com/news/blog/2023/cruises-safety-record-over-one-million-driverless-
miles/#::text-Throughout%20our%20first%20million%20driverless, in%20a%20comparable%20driving%20environment, https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/AA7YQM Investor Day 2023 Keynote
W9DARX.pdf?xseo=&response-content-disposition=inline%3Bfilename%3D%22Investor-Day-2023-Keynote.pdf%22, https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafety Report,
https://www.bts.gov/content/roadway-vehicle-miles-traveled-vmt-and-vmt-lane-mile-functional-class, https://www.bts.gov/content/us-vehicle-miles, https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813515,
https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policyinformation/travel monitoring/21dectvt/21dectvt.pdf, https://cdan.nhtsa.gov/SASStored Process/guest,
Forecasts are inherently limited and cannot be relied upon. For informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular security. Past performance is
not indicative of future results.
*Projected
Source: ARK Invest, FARS, GHSA analysis of SHSO data and UP.Partners research
73
Meanwhile, Waymo improves road safety with its autonomous

vehicles and expands its robo taxi service throughout SF and LA
In 2023, Waymo has served over
Waymo @Waymo
700,000 ride-hailing trips with
public riders and no human driver. Providing a safe, reliable and efficient service
for our riders is key to our future success.
We’ll soon begin testing of our rider-only
operations without a human driver on freeways
in Phoenix. See how we’re safely approaching
this next step: https://waymo.com/blog/(...)
James Hoffmann @James Hoffmann3
@Waymo is scaling!! Here are maps from

CPUC permit of proposed LA and SF
service areas. WOW! @Christiano92
@microterf @Filtercopy1983 @AutonoD
57% 85%
reduction in reduction in
police-reported injury-causing
crashes* crashes*
*Compared to a human driver
Source: The Verge, Waymo and UP.Partners research

74
USING AI TO MAKE BETTER BATTERIES
Satya Nadella @satyanadella
With our new MatterGen model, we’re

applying the next generation of AI to one
of the biggest challenges in materials
science: increasing the rate at which we
design materials with desired properties.
Unlocking a new era for scientific discovery with Using AI to design next-generation
AI: How Microsoft’s AI screened over 32 million batteries and materials
candidates to find a better battery

75
Generative design
Des-Ai : Designing Cars with Artificial
Intelligence & 3D printing
Toyota researches generative AI use in car design

Optimizing Aerodynamics A.I. Designed this
1
0.60
0.55
Predicted Drag
2
0.50
0.45
0.40
3
0.35
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Iterations

76
Christian Keil @pronounced_kyle

The robot wars are here — and the score is 1-1.
✅Making coffee (@Figure_robot)

✅Folding a shirt (@Tesla_Optimus)
How long until one of these things can read IKEA

instructions and assemble furniture?
77
“The total addressable market

for a general purpose humanoid
robot is all human labor.
That’s a really big number.”
- Cyrus Sigari, Co-founder, UP.Partners
78
79
AI driven Humanoids are inextricably connected to the mobility ecosystem
OPTIMUS will be FIGURE Hyundai acquired OPEN AI led APPTRONIK

integral into the Tesla Commercial agreement BOSTON DYNAMICS an investment in Developed in
manufacturing process with BMW Manufacturing in 2021 March 2023 partnership with NASA
79
Progress is accelerating
Time to walking humanoid:
(1992) 21 years (252 months)
(1993) 8 years (96 months)
(2021) 15 months
(2023) 12 months

80
The best companies in North americA and China are quickly following suit
Year Founded/
Humanoid Founded 2018 Unveiled 2019 Unveiled 2023 Founded 2023 Founded 2021 Unveiled 2023 Unveiled 2023
Unveiled
Robot Name Phoenix Digit H1 RAISE-A1 GR-1
Partners/ Bell, Magna,

Amazon
Investors Ansys
Announced a
“Biomimetic”
factory to
Trained to walk using hydraulic Xpeng is a
Noteworthy produce
in 6 months valves as leading EV OEM
10K/year in
muscles
Sept 2023
HQ
Source: @TeslaRobotJournal and UP.Partners research

81
Humanoids will start in warehouses where costs have already

dropped below parity amidst a tighter labor market
Avg. $ Per Labor-hour U.S. unemployment rate
16%
15
14
Humans
13
$30.00 12
11
10
9
Humanoids (exp.)
8
7
$12.50 6
5
4
3
2
$0.00 $10.00 $20.00 $30.00
2018 ‘20
But the inevitable TAM for a general

“Optimus ultimately will be worth
purpose robot is “all human labor”
more than the car business”
-Elon Musk
Source: Labor Department and UP.Partners research (https://spectrum.ieee.org/humanoid-robots)

82
83
“Yes, my grandfather worked with

Thomas Edison on the electric car,
and he sold electric cars at the
1900 World's Fair in Paris.”
- Al Jardine
84
Here’s two magazine covers by the Economist, 10 years apart
2013 2023
85
China is by far largest EV producer by 6X the U.S.,

cruising by Japan as largest exporter of cars
China utterly dominates global ev production Export powerhouse:
China also has world’s two largest battery China has blown past Japan to become the world’s
makers: CATL and BYD No. 1 exporter
Rest of the
world 500k Exports
China Vehicle Exports 2019-2023 (f)
5M 4.9m
8m 1.2M
4M
2.6m 3.3m
3M
2.2m
2M
1M 1m 1m
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Global EV Production 2023 (f) Shipping to more than 100 countries in 2023.
Source: dunneinsights.com
86
China’s strategy is twofold on exportING ICE and EV (depending on market)
A GLOBAL TWO-TRACK EXPORT STRATEGY
ICE
(internal combustion engine)
EV
(Electric Vehicle)
China has capacity to build

40 million cars a year.
Domestic demand is 25 million.
Source: dunneinsights.com
87
The #1 EV car company in the world is China’s BYD — delivering 3M cars in 2023
“I have never helped do

anything at Berkshire that
was as good as BYD and I
only did it once.”
- Charlie Munger
Berkshire Hathaway has owned up to 21% of

BYD, with the first investment made in 2008
88
The U.S. and China are breaking up… and Mexico is the new beau
How U.S. and China Are Breaking Up, in Charts U.S. importing more from Mexico than China for
Americans keep buying less from China, dropping its share of first time since 2003
imports to a 20-year low China and Mexico as % of U.S. imports (12-month moving average)
China’s share of U.S. goods imports and exports
20% 23% China (% of US total imports, 12mma)
Imports 21% Mexico (% of US total imports, 12mma)
19%
17%
15%
10
13%
11%
Exports
9%
7%
0
5%
‘94 ‘96 ‘98 ‘00 ‘02 ‘04 ‘06 ‘08 ‘10 ‘12 ‘14 ‘16 ‘18 ‘20 ‘22 ‘24
1990 2000 ‘10 ‘20
Source: The Kobeissi Letter Source: BofA Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg
89
buT Chinese EV giants and other

industrials are quickly ramping up
factories in Mexico and Brazil
Stella Li, Executive Vice

President of BYD and
CEO of BYD Americas
BYD inks deal to take over former In 2021, Chinese companies were responsible for 30
Ford factory in Bahia Brazil as a percent of foreign investment in Nuevo León, second
beachhead for Brazil only to the United States at 47 percent.
Source: UP.Partners research and public announcements

90
BYD is BIg, but The Dominance of Tesla is unmistakable
Berkshire cuts “We don’t want to

BYD holding 11 compete with Elon
times in 2023. in a lot of things.”
- Warren Buffett
Source: UP.Partners research and public company information

91
Tesla is not a car company.

It’s a multi-industry technology conglomerate
Battery Artificial
Car Lithium Mining Manufacturing Intelligence Humanoids
Manufacturer Company Company Company Company
Large Battery EV Charging Autonomy —

Infrastructure Company Robotaxi company Insurance
Solar Company Company (Super Charger) (Eventually) Company

92
U.s. EV sales comparison: tesla vs Other Automakers (2023)
700,000
654,888
GM
600,000
Rivian
Hyundai
US Sales (units)
500,000
BMW
Mercedez
400,719
400,000 VW
KIA
300,000 Audi
Volvo
Polestar
200,000
Ford
Lucid
100,000
Fisker

-$ 88
,763
Q1
-$10
6,17
5
Q2
-$10
8,46
0
2012
Q3
-$90
,885
Q4
-$5,5
84
Q1
-$11
,792
Q2
-$39
,554
2013
Q3
-$13
,353
Q4
-$43
,967
Q1
-$28
,753
Q2
-$39
,129
2014
Q3
-$74
,838
Q4
-$10
2,44
6
Q1
-$17
0,18
8
Q2
-$18
Tesla quarterly earnings
3,66
2
2015
Q3
-$26
0,33
3
Q4
-$24
8,22
4
Q1
-$23
Source: UP.Partners research and Tesla published financial statements

8,04
0
Q2
2016
Q3
$85,6
22
-$26
6,69
8
Q4
-$25
7,54
9
Q1 -$24
0,91
6
Q2
-$53
5,48
2017 0
Q3
-$59
8,14
1
Q4
-$59
6,97
4
Q1
-$62
1,39
2
Q2
2018
Q3
$416
,757
Q4
$413
,536
-$52
2,00
0
Q1
-$16
7,00
0
Q2
2019
Q3
$261
,000
Q4
$359
,000
Q1
$283
,000
Q2
$327
,000
2020
Q3
$809
,000
Q4
$575
,000
Q1
$594
,000
Q2
$1,3
12,0
00
2021
Q3
$2,0
04,0
00
Q4
$2,6
13,00
0
Q1
$3,6
03,0
00
Q2
$2,4
64,0
00
2022
Q3
$3,6
88,0
00
$3,9
Q4
01,0
00
Q1
$2,6
64,0
00
Q2
$2,3
99,0
00
2023
Q3
$1,7
64,00
0
93
94
Meanwhile, Ev RESET ACROSS LEGACY auto OEMS making headlines

Ford will follow Toyota as it leans Audi puts big EV push
into hybrids, scaling back EV targets on the back burner
December 28, 2023 December 19, 2023
Ford cutting 2024 F-150 Lightning

production plans by half, suppliers told Ford, GM temper EV expectations as
The news comes amid an industrywide pullback in EV
investment due to slower-than-expected sales growth.
Mercedes exec calls it a 'brutal space'
December 11, 2023 December 19, 2023
Tesla joins GM, Ford in slowing EV Porsche warns supply chain issues
factory ramp as demand fears spread are affecting EV production
October 19, 2023 July 26, 2023
Auto giant pausing plant production Toyota Chairman Says "People Are
on this new vehicle line Finally Seeing Reality" Of EVs
GM presses “pause” on its new EV truck at one key
factory. October 19, 2023 October 25, 2023
GM's EV partnership with Honda hits the VW delays new Porsche Macan EV platform,
brakes amid UAW strike, production delays cuts jobs as software struggles persist
October 25, 2023 October 27, 2023

95
Reality sets in for others
Sawyer Merritt @SayerMerritt Farzad @farzyness

Rivian lost $94,541 for every vehicle that Lucid is losing ~$596,616 per car.
they delivered in Q2 2023. This compares
to $383,000 per vehicle in Q2 2022. Lucid delivered 1,404 vehicles in Q2 2023
and recorded -$838M loss from
Overall,the company lost $13.1M per day operations
in Q2 2023.
$LCID

96
Despite all this, the EV adoption is slow and steady

Sales of passenger EVs
China
Europe 15M
North America
South Korea
‘ Japan
Rest of World
10
0
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023e 2024e
Note: Includes battery-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Excludes commercial vehicles and two-and-three wheelers. December 2023 data estimated for some countries. 2024 is BNEF’s forecast.
Source: BloombergNEF
97
but could cybertruck be the EV Ownership Is Split by Politics in U.S.

unlock for trump voters? Share of electric vehicles vs. 2020 presidential vote
EV share of total
cars on road
Trump state Swing state Biden state
Biden vote in 2020
Source: BloombergNEF, Cook Report, Experian Automotive, DOE

98
2023 North American Charging Standard became the NORM — Tesla Won, Again
North American Charging Standard (NACS) Adoption
ADOPTING NOT YET/ NO EVs
Adopting Not yet/no EV’s

99
By 2030, the United States will need about 28 million ports

to meet demand for zero-emission passenger vehicles
U.S. charging demand for zero-emission passenger vehicles, millions of ports
Public Private
~28.0
+34%
Per annum
~9.5
~26.5
~2.6
~9.0
~2.5
~1.5
~0.5
~0.1
2022 2025 2030
Note: Based on a scenario where passenger electric vehicles account for nearly half the vehicles sold in the United States in 2030, in line with a federal target.
100
Africa and india to experience fastest growth rates for e-motorcycles

Electric 2-wheeler facts and product mix, by geography1
North America Other

China ASEAN4 India Latin America Africa
and Europe South Asia
2021 market size,

~15.0 ~12.0 2.1 15.1 2.3 ~2.8 ~1.0
million units
Estimated CAGR
0-1 4-5 5-6 6-7 5-6 5-6 12-14
2021-30, %
Moped/ Bebek,2 %
- -
15-20 3-4 0-5 15-20 0-5
Scooter, %
80-85 70-75 25-30 28-30 25-30
0-1 0-1
Light motorcycle, %
60-65 65-70 70-75 90-95
0-5 5-10 10-15

3
Heavy motorcycle, %
50-60
0-5 0-5 4-5 0-5 0-5 0-5
Electrification level, %
~15 ~2 ~8 ~4 <1 <1 <1

101
Transforming legacy built world industries takes decades and billions

-$0bn
The wild history of UBER’s last 10 years Uber Market Cap
-$5bn Uber Operating Profit/Loss
(Cumulative, 2014 - Q2 2023, quarterly*)
-$10bn
Uber IPO
U$150B
-$15bn
U$140B
-$20bn
Uber has built up $31.5bn in U$100B
operating losses since 2014 Uber’s first
operating profit
of $326m
-$25bn
U$76B
U$50B
U$41B
-$30bn
U$8.1B
U$1.2B
-$35bn U$
Amount Amount
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2014 2019 2023
invested invested
Source: Uber *2014-17 annual loss equality divided across each quarter and UP.Partners research
102
103
“This freight recession is

unlike any other in history.”
- Craig Fuller, CEO Freightwaves
104
U.S. Freight has gone through a major recession in 2023
Trucking Sector Employees Laid Off Trucking Employment Index for Each Cycle
All employees, truck transportation
2000 Cycle
2008 Cycle
Current Cycle
Thousands Recessions
101
1,650
100
1,550
Employment Index
99
1,450
98
1,350
1,250 97
1,150
96
1,050
95
1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023
0 5 10 15 20 25
Months from Inversion
Dates: 1990 Through October 2023
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Game of Trades and UP.Partners research.
105
50,000 trucking companies have ceased operations since May 2022

~510,000 Drivers Have Stopped Over 50,000 Fleets Have
Driving in 14 months Ceased Operating
Drivers Fleets
4,000,000 400,000
-13.5% -13%
3,775,002 386,192
3,000,000 300,000
3,265,238 335,979
2,000,000 200,000
1,000,000 100,000
0 0
May 2022 June 2023 May 2022 June 2023
Notes: Active motor carriers excludes some categories, such as private not-for-hire fleets and vocational fleets. Active means insurance must be current. Motor carriers includes all truckload,
final mile and LTL niches.
Source: FMCSA and QualifiedCarriers.com
106
Used truck prices HAVE returned to earth, as have ground freight prices
ACT Research three-year-old used truck price index, Freightos Baltic Daily Index,
(United States of America) (China North America West)
150000 22500.00
20000.00
125000 17500.00
-65809.39
(-46.04%) 13
Bars 15000.00
12500.00
100000
1000.00
7500.00
77003
73000
5000.00
2500.00
1190.2
50000
5
2019 Jun 2020 Jun 2021 Jun 2022 Jun 2023 Jun 2017 Jun 2018 Jun 2019 Jun 2020 Jun 2021 Jun 2022 Jun 2023 Jun
Source: FreightWaves
107
Hardware to Watch — Gatik Autonomous Trucks and Range Energy Trailer
Motor
Hitch Sensor
Battery
Gatik makes autonomous trucks exclusively for middle-mile Range Energy offers a plug ‘n’ play electrified trailer
logistics and has already delivered over 500K orders with no solution that reduces fuel consumption in semi-trucks
human driver in the cab. by nearly 40%.

108
Around 80% of
the volume of
international
trade in goods is
carried by sea

109
Sea freight is faring no better and has some other issues to contend with…
Dooner @TimothyDooner
"This is not a diet. This is a reset of the

baseline." —Maersk CEO
Maersk cuts 10,000 jobs due to global
trade downturn
They say the new normal is subdued
macroeconomic outlook, soft volumes for
coming years, inflation, global uncertainty
110
Two of the most important marine choke points are disrupted:

Panama canal due to drought and Suez canal due to the Houthi attacks
Crucial waterway Houthi movement

Global trade faces even more turmoil as Houthi attacks in the Red Sea
Panama Canal is forced to slash ship transits
by more than a third due to drought
Panama Canal Suez Canal
40%
of U.S. container traffic
30%
of global container traffic

111
This means higher shipping costs and slower deliveries

“Several shipping giants have announced price hikes, signaling a
potential 100% increase in Asia-Europe shipping costs.” NG-Terminal
Panama Canal Jam Spurs Alternate Ship Routes The typical Singapore to
Shippers face higher costs with either increased Rotterdam sea voyage is almost
voyages or surging canal fees 40% longer via the Cape compared
to the Suez Canal.
Rotterdam
EUROPE
Suez Canal ASIA

Suez Canal: 30
~8,440
Nautical miles
AFRICA
Trip duration from the

U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia Singapore
via Panama Canal:
20 days
Cape of Good ~11,720
Hope: 32 Nautical miles
Typical route
Alternate routes
Cape of Good Hope

Note: Trip length assumes speed of 20 knots
Source: Shiptracking data compiled by Bloomberg, Panama Canal Authority

112
China has 232 times the ship building capacity of the united states that’s not a typo
“Indeed, the shipbuilding divide

between China and the United
States is vast. A recently
declassified intelligence slide from
the Office of Naval Intelligence
estimates that China has 232
times the shipbuilding capability of
the United States, owing to its
much larger shipbuilding
manufacturing industry.”
- AEI
Source: AEI, Office of Naval Intelligence and UP.Partners research

113
Hardware to watch
Airbus is renewing its sea fleet with

low-emission ships featuring wind
propulsion to reduce transatlantic carbon
emissions by over half before 2030.
Regent — An electric flying boat, piloted by

mariners. On par with price/seat as sea
ferry but at airplane speeds.
Source: Simple Flying

114
Human intervention in complex systems can have

unintended consequences: no sulfur, no sea clouds
In 2020, sulfur was significantly removed from
ship fuel for environmental reasons.
As a result, there has been a stark reduction in

sea clouds, the clouds that form from
sulfur-emitted exhaust from ships.
As a result, more sunlight is being absorbed in

the atmosphere and increasing global
temperatures, not reducing!
“It’s as if the world suddenly

lost the cooling effect from a
fairly large volcanic
eruption each year.”
—Michael Diamond, atmospheric
scientist, Florida State University.
Source: Science News

115
116
“Talking about mobility without

talking energy is like talking
about computers without
talking about the internet.”
- Cyrus Sigari, Co-founder UP.Partners
117
MOBILITY is the largest CO2 CONTRIBUTOR IN the united states

U.s. ghg emissions by major emitting sector
Million metric tons CO₂ - equivalent
3,000
2,500
industry
2,000
transportation
1,500
Electric power
1,000
Buildings
500
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2023
Source: Rhodium Group

118
MOBILITY’S NET-ZERO Projected CO2 emissions globally from transport by subsector in Gt CO2
FUTURE IS A FANTASY Road Shipping Aviation Rail
UNLESS RADICAL Where it’s currently heading Where it should be heading

INNOVATION IS UNLOCKED Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) Net-Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE)
+11% Change
-14%
+79% -22%
+9%
Change
-36%
+22%
-15%
+4%
-28%
Source:
Source: IEA
UP.Partners analysis based on data from the International Energy Agency (IEA)
119
To reach net-zero targets, a set of existing climate

technologies would need to scale exponentially by 2030 Mature Early adoption
Annual deployment of climate technologies needed,¹

multiples of current supply
Wind power Solar power Battery electric Green hydrogen Carbon capture
capacity, capacity, car sales, electrolyzer utilization, and storage,
gigawatts gigawatts million capacity, gigawatts megatons of CO₂
600 2,000 70 50 100
6x 14x 60
14x 200x 100x
500
40 80
1,500
50
400
30 60
40
300 1,000
30 20 40
'Based on the McKinsey 1.5°C achieved commitments
200 scenario, which represents existing commitments
20 from companies and policies from countries. To
500 conduct this analysis, we estimated the current
10 20 trajectory of supply of key climate technologies
100 (based on historical and current activity), factored in
10 current emissions-reductions commitments from
countries and governments, and assessed the supply
of these technologies that would be required by
0 0 0 0 0 2030 to stay on track for a 1.5° pathway. Source:
EV-Volumes; IEA; International Renewable Energy
2015 2021 2030 2015 2021 2030 2015 2021 2030 2015 2021 2030 2015 2021 2030 Agency; McKinsey analysis

120
West is cutting while china is growing emissions

Per capita consumption-based CO² emissions Annual CO² emissions
Consumption-based emissions¹ are national emissions that have been Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuels and Industry¹.
adjusted for trade. It's production-based emissions minus emissions Land use change is not included.
embedded in exports, plus emissions embedded in imports.
China
20 t 10 billion t
8 billion t
15 t United
States
6 billion t
10 t United
European States
Union (27) 4 billion t
China
5t
2 billion t
0t
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
0t
1800 1850 1900 1950 2021
1. Consumption-based emissions: Consumption-based emissions are national or regional emissions that 1. Fossil emissions: Fossil emissions measure the quantity of carbon dioxide (CO2) emitted from the burning of fossil
have been adjusted for trade. They are calculated as domestic (or 'production-based' emissions) fuels, and directly from industrial processes such as cement and steel production. Fossil CO2 includes emissions
emissions minus the emissions generated in the production of goods and services that are exported to from coal, oil, gas, flaring, cement, steel, and other industrial processes. Fossil emissions do not include land use
other countries, plus emissions from the production of goods and services that are imported. change, deforestation, soils, or vegetation.
Consumption-based emissions = Production-based – Exported + Imported emissions
Source: Our World in Data based on the Global Carbon Project (2022)
121
Even while China is spending more than the west on ITS energy transition
China South Korea Total Public and Private Investment

EU Japan
US Rest of world $800 Billion
UK
600
400
200
2012 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ‘16 ‘17 ‘18 ‘19 ‘20 2021
Source: Bloomberg
122
Europe is turning against climate change agenda
Peter St Onge, Ph.D. Net Zero Watch

@profstonge @NetZeroWatch
Sanity in Sweden as government abandons The anti-Net Zero rebellion is coming! Spain's
"renewables" for nuclear. main opposition party promises to tax
renewables if it wins looming elections.
"The Swedish people wish to ground their Beware the #CostofNetZero
economy in an energy source that is physically
sound and secure, unlike renewables which
are neither."
4:40 AM - Jun 26, 2023 - 2.8M Views 1:51 AM - Jul 8, 2023 - 1.3M Views

123
Germany is the canary in the literal coal mine

Average German now uses less electricity than in 1978
Greens praise lower emissions, but German
de-industrialization is nothing to celebrate
German household electricity price, adjusted for inflation Electricity consumption in Germany — watts/person
1000
900
40 800
1978
700
Price per kWh, 2023 € cents
35 600
watts/person
500
30 400
300
25 200
100
20 0
1990 2000 2010 2020
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2011
2013
2015
2019
2021
2023
Wind Solar Biofuels Hydropower Nuclear
Other low- carbon Fossil/other
Source: Eurostat household electricity prices with taxes and consumer price index from Source: LowCarbonPower. twitter.com/bjornlomborg
details.de.twitter.com/bjornlomborg
124
While Germany goes into the dark ages, China has a different plan
Electricity Generation Electric Production by Source, China
China
Bioenergy
Solar
8,000 8,000
TWh TWh Wind
Hydropower
6,000 6,000
TWh TWh Nuclear
Gas
United
4,000 States 4,000
TWh TWh
European Coal
union (27)
2,000 2,000
TWh TWh
Russia
Japan
South Korea
United
0 TWh Kingdom 0TWh
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2022 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2022
Data Source: Ember’s Yearly Electricity Data; Ember’s European Electricity Review; Source: Our World in DAta based on BP statistical Review of World Energy (2022); Ember(2023)
Energy Institute Statistical Review of World Energy Note: ‘Other renewables’ includes waste, geothermal, wave and tidal.
OurWorldinData.org/energy | CC BY
125
We have a free nuclear fusion GLOBAL solar and wind power capacity (gw)
reactor, the sun, which we just Solar Power
need to access through solar 3,500

3,000
CAGR 11.6%
While solar and wind cannot be the sole source 2,500
Gigawatts (GW)
of generation, planned capacity will grow rapidly 2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2022e 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f 2030f 2031f 2032f
Wind Power
3,000
CAGR 9.7%
2,500
Gigawatts (GW)
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2022e 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f 2030f 2031f 2032f
Source: Global X ETFs and UP.Partners research Note: CAGR is Compound Annual Growth rate, e= estimate, f=forecast.
126
Many transformational energy Solar PV¹ 55x
TECHNOLOGIES HAVE OUTPACED 5,000

Increase in 2030 predicted in
2023 vs 2006
FORECASTS OVER THE PAST DECADE

2023
4,000
Gigawatts (GW)
Annual global forecast of cumulative 3,000 2022
installed capacity, by IEA report year 25x
2,000 2020
More installed capacity in 2020
1,000 than predicted in 2006
2015
2010
0 2006
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
5x 3.5x
Wind Power Battery Storage
Increase in 2030 predicted in Increase in 2030 predicted in
2,500 2023 vs 2006 600 2023 vs 2021
2023
2023 500
2,000
Gigawatts (GW)
Gigawatts (GW)
2022
400
1,500 3x
2020 300
More installed capacity in 2020 2015 2022
1,000 than predicted in 2006 2010 200
500 2006 100
2021
0 0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Historical Forecasts
Source: McKinsey & Company - “New policies scenario/Stated policies scenario”, World Energy Outlook, IEA.
127
Electric is interesting, but we still use a lot of Oil: G7 v BRICS+ BRICS G7
BRICS+ & G7 Proven Oil Reserves BRICS+: 78% Oil Production, 2022 BRICS+: 64%
(millions of barrels) G7: 22% (millions of barrels) G7: 36%
Saudi Arabia Iran Russia Saudi Arabia Russia

266,260 208,600 80,000 3,921 3,753
China Iran UAE

1,401 1,208 1,239
China
25,627
Others Canada
~10,000 1,874 Others Brazil
UAE 431 1,116
111,000 Brazil
~12,634
Others
Canada USA USA 296.12
170,300 32,773 5,196
Others
~2,500
Source: OurWorldInData.org, Energy Institute - Statistical Review of World Energy (2023); The Shift Data Portal (2019)
128
U.S. strategic petroleum reserve at a 40 year low
Thousand Barrels
Oil prices likely to remain

1,000,000 inflated until the U.S. refills
its strategic reserves
750,000
500,000
250,000
40 years
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Source: Energy Information Administration

129
Elemental energy anyone? (aka Nuclear power)

Who is Building Nuclear Reactors? Asia is Going Nuclear
Top 10 Countries by Nuclear Capacity Under Construction Number of nuclear reactors currently in construction or in
preliminary construction stages per region
Reactor Under Construction Reactor Capacity

Megawatt electric (MWe) In construction Planned Proposed
China 23,511 35
(MWc)
Asia 56
India China is building 21 new 220
reactors including the world’s
Turkey first commercial small modular
reactor (SMR). Europe (incl. 15
Russia and 37
South Korea Turkey)
51
Despite building one fewer reactor, the
UK UK has more under-construction
capacity than Russia because its 3
reactors can generate more electricity. Middle East
Russia and Africa 4
When the two under-construction 25
UAE
reactors are operable, the UAE’s
Barakah Nuclear Power Plant will 2
Japan* supply 25% of the country’s electricity. South and
Middle America 1
U.S. The two U.S. reactors under 9
construction in Georgia are expected
Bangladesh
to come online before 2023. 2
North America 4
0 2.5k 5k 7.5k 10k 12.5k 15k 17.5k 20k 25
Total under construction reactor gross capacity (MWe)
As of Dec 2021.
*Construction at Japan’s reactors is currently suspended.
Source: World Nuclear Association Source: World Nuclear Association
130
The U.S. missed 30 years of building reactors — and NOW we’re paying the price
U.S. nuclear power capacity additions, by year of initial operation (1970-2023)
10 Chernobyl
1986
8 Three Mile
Island
1979
gigawatts
Vogtle Unit 3
2023
2 ;
Watts Bar Unit 2
2016
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Note: Data excludes capacity built and retired before 2002.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory, and Georgia Power press release
131
France has become one of the few examples

of rationality in the west with nuclear Nuclear Plant
900 MWe Reactor 1450 MWe Reactor
1300 MWe Reactor 1600 MWe Reactor
Fossil fuels Hydropower

Nuclear Other renewables
100% Other
renewables
Hydropower
80%
Nuclear
Gravelines
60%
Penyl Chooz
Paluel
Flamanville Cattenom
Nogent
40% Brennilis Dampierre Fessenheim
St-Laurent Belleville
Chinon
20% Civaux
Bugey
Creys-Malville
Fossil
fuels Le Blayais St-Alban
0%
Cruas
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Golfech
Tricastin Marcoule
“Other renewables” is all non-hydropower renewable sources.
Source: IEA via the World Bank; and Ember Climate . Author: Hannah Ritchie and UP.Partners research
132
Will Sam Altman backed fusion company, And others, save the day?
Sam Altman
@sama
Helion announces world’s first
If Helion works, it not only is a potential way
out of the climate crisis but a path towards a
fusion energy purchase agreement
much higher quality of life.
with Microsoft
Have loved being involved for the last 7 years
and excited to be investing more. David and New facility aims to deliver at least 50 MW and begin
Chris are amazing.
producing electricity by 2028, dramatically shortening the
projected timeline for commercially viable fusion energy

133
With the cooling EV MArket, lithium demand has rationalized

and cell prices continue to decline
Battery Prices Hit Record Low, Ending Brief Uptick
Lithium-ion battery price survey results:
Lithium carbonate (CNY/T) 97500.00 -1000.000 (-1.01%) volume-weighted average pack prices
Volume-weighted average in real 2023 dollars
600000
1,391 $1,500/kWh
500000
1,079
400000
1,000
848
780
300000 692
448 500
200000 345
258
211 183 160
150 161 139
97500
0
2022
2023
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Note: Historical figures have been adjusted to real 2023 dollars. Values are averages across passenger EVs,
commercial vehicles, buses, two- and three-wheelers and stationary storage. Includes cell and pack.
Source: BloombergNEF and UP.Partners research
134
Lithium Mining in North America Selection of lithium chemical production facilities

under construction or with potential 2024
construction start dates 1
Company Project or locality Project type Project start date
Albemarle Chester County (SC) Processing facility TBA

Livent Nemaska Bécancour (QB) Processing facility 2026
Tesla Robstown (TX) Processing facility 2024
Piedmont Lithium MCMinn County (TN) Processing facility 2026
Lithium Americas Thacker Pass (NV) Clay 2026
Standard Lithium Phase 1A (AR) Brine 2026
Ioneer/Sibanye-Stillwater Rhyolite Ridge (NV) Clay 2026
EnergySource Minerals Imperial County (CA) Geothermal brine TBA
Controlled Thermal Resources Imperial County (CA) Geothermal brine 2025
Lithium Current lithium and spodumene 2 capacity

Americas
Livent Company Project or locality Asset type
Albemarle Kings Mountain (NC) Processing facility

Ioneer/ Sayona Québec/ Albemarle Silver Peak (NV) Brine
Sibanye- Piedmont Lithium Livent Bessemer City (NC) Processing facility
Stillwater Sayona Québec/Piedmont N. Am. Lithium (QB) Spodumene mine
Albemarle Albemarle
Albemarle
Controlled Sized by lithium production capacity
Thermal Livent
Resources 50,000 mt/year
Energy Source Piedmont
Minerals Lithium 10,000
Standard 5,000 unknown
Lithium
Tesla
1 Current as of December 2023. Includes facilities with at least 5,000 mt/year of lithium chemical production capacity. Information based on public company disclosures. Does not include recycling-only
operations. Does not include spodumene projects with no integrated lithium conversion facility. 2 Spodumene is a mined ore raw material that can be processed to produce lithium chemicals
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights, company releases, company websites, executive comments; CI Information Design
135
the Great Arkansas Lithium Rush has ignited a new opportunity for the heartland
Smackover Formation | One of the World’s Largest Brine Aquifers
Productive bromine operations and elevates lithium concentrations make the
Smackover a promising lithium production powerhouse with room to scale
Smackover Advantage:
● Extensive, porous, and permeable limestone
aquifer hosts huge volumes of mineral rich
brine and can take large reinjection volumes.
● Geological data from thousands of wells

demonstrates formation homogeneity in
thickness, continuity and lithium chemistry.
● One of the world’s largest sources of bromine,

a mature regulatory framework with 60 years
of commercial brine operations, and 8+ billion
gallons of brine pumped, processed and
reinjected annually.
Prolific Resource in the
United States ● Brine has elevated lithium concentrations,
Extends from Florida to Texas typically ranging from 150-500mg/L.
600 miles long
60 miles wide
Smackover Formation
Represent wells drilled in the Smackover Formation
Sources: Standard Lithium, Arkansas Oil & Gas Commission data. USGS,2006.
136
Gigafactories are exploding in support of the EV transition,

but WHERE will they be built? Likely to be Uncertain Unlikely to be
completed completed
Source: The Information

137
The Future of Batteries

Lithium-ion Battery Demand by Region
600 Europe
China
500 United States
Other
400
GWh/year
300
200
100
0
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: IEA, Battery demand by region, 2016-2022, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/battery-demand-by-region-2016-2022, IEA. Licence: CC BY 4.0
138
NEW EV BATTERIES FAR OUTSTRIP AVAILABILITY OF RECYCLED MATERIAL

Metric tons of batteries
Placed on Market
10,000,000
Placed on Market
5,000,000 2024: 3,733,018
Available for recycling

0
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Source: Circular Energy Storage - Chart by Casey Crownhart, MIT Technology Review
139
Battery Technologies to Watch
Solid-state batteries (SSBs) Silicon Anodes

have been an area of focus recently due to their Graphite anodes for lithium-ion batteries reached
unparalleled safety and high energy density. They their energy limit years ago. Silicon promises
could be safer with less chance of catching fire in longer-range, faster-charging and more-affordable
a crash, too. EVs than those whose batteries feature today’s
graphite anodes.
Companies to watch: Company to watch:

140
141
Defense and China Drones
● The largest customer of mobility related technologies is the U.S. DoD. ● Outside war in Ukraine, Walmart is the largest driver of
● DoD catalyzed the iPhone, hydraulic brakes, internet, GPS, among others. drone development in the world.
● The second-largest customer is the Chinese People’s Liberation Army. ● 1.8M U.S. households in Dallas-Fort Worth Area eligible for
● U.S. military spending nears $1 trillion.
drone delivery through Walmart and its partners.
● China’s military is reaching near parity, with approximately 25% the
annual spend. ● While Walmart has led the way, Amazon has faltered and
● China’s Military Civil Fusion strategy has propelled China to lead in 37 of has strategic disadvantages as compared to Walmart’s
44 critical technologies, with the U.S. only leading 7 out of 44. store footprint and partnership strategy.
● China has the largest number of STEM graduates worldwide, 3X USA. ● Cost of drone delivery is reaching nearly a third of auto
● China has 232 times the shipbuilding capacity. delivery at ~$4/delivery.
● Defense focused VC is increasing at a rate of 30%/yr in response to global ● Drone delivery flights have increased 135%/yr since 2018,
conflicts.
surpassing 1 million deliveries in 2023.
● 34% of U.S. tech employees are likely to apply their skills to military related
technologies.
● Small Business Innovation Research Program grew 400% in 7 years.
Space Aviation
● Satellite constellations up 1000% in 4 years, led by Starlink. ● Pilot shortage is getting worse, further putting pressure on a fragile airline
● SpaceX dwarfs all launch providers, ~ 400% the payload of ALL system.
other launch providers combined. ● Expected to be 65,000 pilots short by 2030.
● China introduced the world's first commercial electric air taxi flight in 2023.
● China is quickly accelerating its space program and already landing
● EVTOLs have reached an 18,000 units backlog, valued at $111 billion.
reusable rockets. ● The commencement of the design of Boeing 737 is closer to the Wright Flyer
● NASA Artemis Mission is complex and at risk. than present day.
● If it works, Starship will deliver a ton of payload to the moon for ● Blended Wing Body commercial airframe design could cut fuel burn by 50%.
$70M/ton vs. Apollo at $36B/ton. ● Electrifying all flights under two hours could reduce aviation CO2 emissions by
● VC investment in space startups up nearly 3500% in the last decade. 28%.
● With few exceptions, Space SPACS have fared poorly. ● Sustainable Alternative Jet Fuel is 43% more costly than conventional fuel.
● Flying cars have arrived, with entry into service of products such as Pivotal’s
Helix and the Jetson One.
142
Artificial Intelligence in Mobility Ground and sea Freight
● Tesla leads in Full Self-Driving data, with over 170 million miles ● Major trucking recession in 2023, 50,000 companies cease operations
accumulated. ● Used truck prices return back to earth
● Two thirds of startups in 2023 Y-combinator winter class focused on the ● Panama canal is at risk due to drought in Panama, potentially
field of AI. impacting 40% of US bound freight
● Microsoft and others are using AI for battery innovation. ● Concurrently, Suez canal is major risk of disrupting 30% of global
● Humanoids are now nearly 60% cheaper than warehouse hourly labor. container traffic due to Houthi attacks
● Waymo autonomous driving delivery 6X safer than human drivers in ● Cutting sulfur from marine fuel may have unintended consequences of
reducing injury-causing crashes. heating the Atlantic due to the loss of sea clouds
● Neural networks are being trained to bring our machines to life - Tesla’s
FSD v12.12 is a testament. Co-Pilots for aviation may not be far away.
Auto Renewables, Energy and oil

● China is the largest electric vehicle producer, 6X USA. ● Mobility CO2 emissions to grow 11% by 2030.
● EV sales hit a record 15 million in 2023. ● Climate technology needs exponential growth by 2030 in order to reach
● Largest EV producer in the world is Chinese based Berkshire backed, BYD. net-zero targets.
● Largest energy transition investor is China, at nearly $400 billion.
● Yes, Berkshire cut BYD position 11 times in 2023 in fear of competing with
● China has the world's largest nuclear reactor capacity.
Tesla. ● BRICS+ leads in oil reserves and production.
● Tesla leads the U.S. EV market, 655K sales in 2023 - more than all other ● Shift away from fossil fuels in Germany, resulting in high electricity prices,
non-chinese OEMs combined. usage back to 1978 levels and a de-industrialization of the country.
● The U.S. needs 28 million EV charging ports by 2023, meaning a 34% per ● U.S. strategic petroleum reserves at 40-year low.
annum growth rate from the 2022 installed base. ● Sam Altman-backed Helion's fusion energy deal with Microsoft aims for
● Tesla sets North American charging standard production in 2028.
● Cooling EV market lowers lithium demand and prices, reaching 13 year low.
● Arkansas benefits from lithium rush due to the Smackover brine reserve.
● China dominates 50% of global lithium battery demand.
● Urgent need for battery recycling development, led by Redwood Materials.
143
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reach out to press@up.partners
144
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145
This content is for informational purposes only and should not be used as a substitute
for consultation with professional advisors. UP.Partners may be involved in business
with companies covered in this research report. Thus, readers should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
UP.Partners has taken reasonable steps to ensure that the information contained in
the report has been obtained from reliable sources. However, UP.Partners cannot
guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the data obtained in this manner.
Results are updated periodically. Therefore, all data is subject to change at any time.
© 2024 UP.Partners. All rights reserved.

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2024 Macro and Micro Trends in Mobility

For more information on UP.Partners, please visit our website at www.up.partners

HUNTER GATHERERS WOULD CONSIDER US GODS…

Things are relatively good for us humans

British Industrial Revolution

Source: Luke Muehlhauser

And it’s actually

Into the future

Into the future

200,000 years ago: beds

3,4 million years ago: First tool use,

technology has given

we’re doing a heck of job of Democratizing the cost of mobility

progress is accelerating due to these converging exponential technologies

Advanced Materials and Manufacturing

Sensors and Advanced Navigation Systems

Sustainable and Renewable Energy Sources

As a result – Mobility is Changing Everything, everywhere, all at once

0 MI 1 MI 2 MI 4 MI 6 MI 8 MI 10 MI 12 MI 14Ml 60 MI 120 MI 180 MI 240 MI 300 MI 500 MI 5000 MI 10000MI ∞ MI

“In 1945, we began a new world order.

The single largest

Source: UP.Partners research

Hydraulic Radar and Silicon Polaroid Microwave

Apple Digital the gps 3d graphic

THANK YOU UNCLE SAM FOR MY IPHONE

First generation iPod Dram cache iphone

Micro hard drive Cellular technology

Lithium-ion batteries Multi-touch screen

Liquid-crystal display navstar-gps

Signal compression SIRI

Source: UP.Partners research (https://nintil.com/mazzucato-and-the-iphone-i/)

World’s 2nd largest military is the chinese people’s liberation army

Total Aircraft Strength 13,209 3,304

Fighter Aircraft 1,854 1,207

Fleet Strength 472 730

Tanks 4,657 5,000

Armored Vehicles 360,069 174,300

Defense Budget $831,781,000,000 $227,000,000,000

Chinese Military Civil Fusion (MCF) National Policy is working — FAST

Occurrence of MCF and CMI in Five Occurrence of MCF and CMI

Civil-Military Integration Military-Civilian Fusion

According to ASPI, China’s global lead extends to 37 out of 44 critical technologies!

High Performance Computing Nanoscale materials Hydrogen and ammonia CubeSats

Circuit design Coatings Supercapacitors Space launch

Natural Language Processing Smart materials Electric batteries Hypersonics

Advanced RF communication Advanced composites Photovoltaics Drone swarming

AI High-speciﬁcation machining Directed energy Autonomy

Blockchain Advanced explosives Biofuels Quantum

Cybersecurity Advanced protection Vaccines Quantum communications

Photonic sensors Additive manufacturing Synthetic biology

Source: Australian Strategic Policy Institute

The west has a long tail, structural, educational Challenge

is social media is professional is YouTuber

You can’t tell kids to follow their

Do you know what it was in 1971?

Meanwhile, 2 billion people in 64 countries

Taiwan Russia South Korea Mexico UK US

0.7% of 2.2% of 1.6% of 1.4% of 3.0% of 25% of

jAN FEB MAR APR jUN SEP NOV

Indonesia India Japan

1.3% of 3.4% of 4.2% of

From 51 defense companies, to 5, to a resurgence of new names AFGHAN