Le Thao Nhi January 30, 2024

English 10 Mr Swaggert Tacio

Hindsight Bias: Can We Really Trust Our Memories?

Imagine you are watching a movie with a twist ending and afterward feel like it has to

end that way, this is where the “Hindsight Bias” comes into play. Hindsight bias was

introduced as the tendency to adjust one's memory about earlier given estimates

towards inter-mediately presented outcome information (Fischhoff, 1975, as cited in

Pohl et al., 2002). Hindsight bias is a psychological phenomenon which appears to

be very robust. Therefore, being manipulated by hindsight bias can be a barrier to

rational thinking since it limits the human ability to learn from experiences.

Upon closer examination, hindsight bias stems from memory reconstruction. When

looking back at an event, the memory reconstructs the past based on current

knowledge. Being more explicit, hindsight bias describes the observation that people

are often wise only after the event (Pennington, 1981, as cited in Blank et al., 2007).

This reconstruction can lead people to believe that they knew the outcome was

inevitable in retrospect. This phenomenon shares similarities with “The

Misinformation Effect”. People who fall prey to the trap of hindsight bias often end up

exaggerating their ability to predict. As a result, this psychological phenomenon

breeds overconfidence in decision-making, affect the evaluation in analogous

situations, resulting in potentially risky choices.

Certain mental shortcuts or biases, such as the "knew-it-all-along" effect or the

tendency to simplify and rationalize past events, contribute to hindsight bias, since

the brains tend to streamline complex situations, making them seem more

straightforward after the fact. Notably, the inclination to attribute responsibility to

others for uncertain events is a direct consequence of hindsight bias (Walster, 1967,

as cited in Hastie & Scott, 1990). Looking from a broader viewpoint, hindsight bias

also sparks conflicts in relationships. Since individuals retroactively believe they

knew the outcome of a situation, they might blame others for not acting accordingly,

disregarding the context and information available at that time.

How many times has any of us said something that we thought was perfectly clear,

only to learn that our intended meaning had failed? Hindsight bias is ingrained in our

subconscious that in some aspects it develops towards the negative. Yet, attributing

our actions or thoughts solely to this bias is an oversimplification. It is our

responsibility to regconize the effects of hindsight bias so that we can make realistic

assessment of events, and have a more nuanced understanding of the intricate

nature of past events.

References
Blank, H., Musch, J., & Pohl, R. F. (2007). Hindsight bias: on being wise after the
event. Social Cognition, 25(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1521/soco.2007.25.1.1
Hastie, R., & Scott, A. H. (1990). Hindsight: biased judgments of past events after
the outcomes are known. Psychological Bulletin, 107(3), 311–327.
https://doi.org/0033-2909/90/$00.75
Pohl, R. F., Bender, M., & Lachmann, G., (2002). Hindsight bias around the world.
Experimental Psychology, 49(4), 270–82. https://doi.org/10.1026//1618-
3169.49.4.270