Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Take 4
Take 4
Take 4
Abstract
The current study intends to find out the linkages between crude oil prices and economic activity in
the context of Indian economy. The macroeconomic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP),
unemployment, industrial output, inflation, exchange rate and stock market prices have been used as a
proxy to economic activity. We have analysed the sample data of 30 years, that is, from year 1991 to
2020. To inspect the short-run relationship between oil prices and the above-mentioned macroeconomic
variables, Granger causality test has been applied after removing the presence of unit root through
differencing the series. To investigate the long-run relationship, vector error correction model (VECM)
has been applied after testing cointegration through the Johansen method of cointegration. The
findings of the study show that oil prices have short-run causality with all the variables, that is, GDP,
unemployment, industrial output, inflation, exchange rate and stock market prices, while they have a
long association with inflation, industrial production and unemployment. Further we find a negative
relationship between oil prices and unemployment, industrial output, inflation and exchange rate and a
positive relationship with GDP and stock prices.
Keywords
Macroeconomic activity, oil prices, Granger causality, Johansen cointegration test, vector error
correction model
1 Amity Global Business School, Amity University, Noida, Uttar Pradesh, India.
2 International Management Institute, Kolkata, West Bengal, India.
Corresponding author:
Avinash K. Shrivastava, International Management Institute, Kolkata, West Bengal 700027, India.
E-mail: kavinash1987@gmail.com
2 Global Business Review
Introduction
Due to its outstanding significance in meeting world’s energy needs, crude oil has always been one of
the key indices of economic activity worldwide. Many studies by different scholars have established an
association between oil prices and different macroeconomic variables in the economy (Ahmed & Wadud,
2011; Herrera et al., 2019; Iwayemi & Fowowe, 2011). Different studies suggest different causes for oil
price fluctuations, and those fluctuations are responsible for stimulating and slowing down economic
development in the country. It has also been observed in the past that any major economic or non-
economic event is followed by a rise in the prices of oil. A substantial rise in oil prices just after recession
is evident in the history of American recessions (Sill, 2007). The increase in crude oil prices may be
because of an increase in demand and fear of disruption in the supply of oil in such conditions. Small
shocks to oil supply or demand result in a high elasticity of prices in oil (Arezki et al., 2017). Speculation
may play a significant role in increasing oil prices (Krugman, 2008). There may be numerous explanations
for oil price volatility, as the literature indicates, but historical examples demonstrate the connection
between oil prices and economic activity (Trang et al., 2017; Wei & Guo, 2016).
The value of oil and the influence of its price fluctuations can be observed in the economic and social
facets of human life. The prevalent view among economists, therefore, is that there is a direct connection
between the economic advancement of a country and changes in oil prices. The effect of oil price
volatility on economic activity in different types of economies has been verified by a wide body of
studies. These effects are likely to differ between developed and developing economies, as well as
between oil-importing and oil exporting countries. The effect of oil prices on real economic activity
encompasses both the supply and demand sides in an economy. The effect on the supply side can be seen
because oil is one of the significant inputs in the process of production and transportation. Thus, higher
oil prices raise the cost of production and transportation, forcing businesses to decrease their production.
Oil price adjustments, on the other hand, often have demand-side impacts on consumption and investment.
Consumption is indirectly influenced via its positive relationship with disposable income. The price
increases are contributing to a reduction in buying power. The current article explores the effect of
fluctuations in oil prices on the economic activity of India (developing country).
Considering all of the above-mentioned economic issues, this research focusses on the linkages
between oil prices and macroeconomic variables. The study progresses as follows: The second section
discusses literature related to the proposed research followed by a rationale of interrelation between oil
and macroeconomic variables. The third section provides objectives of the study. In the fourth section,
the details related to data and methodology are provided. The fifth section describes empirical results
which include the definition of variables, econometric modelling and discussion thereof. The sixth
section concludes by providing the threat to validity, its implications, future research directions and the
managerial implications of the proposed study.
Review of Literature
Various researchers have worked in the direction of establishing the impact of increase and decrease in oil
prices on macroeconomic variables. Cunado and De Gracia (2005) examined the connection between oil
prices and economic movement and consumer price indices for six Asian counties for the time period
1975–2002. Their study suggests a significant short-run association between oil prices and macroeconomic
variables taken into consideration. Lescaroux and Mignon (2008) investigated both short-term and long-
term association between crude oil prices and certain macroeconomic and financial variables (taking gross
Sharma and Shrivastava 3
domestic product [GDP], household consumption expenditure, Consumer Price Index [CPI], unemployment
rate and share prices) of oil-exporting and -importing countries (OPEC), oil-exporting and -importing
countries. Rafiq et al. (2009) surveyed the influence of oil price fluctuations on joblessness and investment
in the Thai economy (using the granger causality test and autoregressive function). Iwayemi and Fowowe
(2011) studied the connection between oil and other macroeconomic variables for the period between 1970
and 2006 for the oil exporters of Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Libya and Nigeria) using vector autoregression and
granger causality test. The long-term co-trending and co-movement in the price of gold, the real exchange
rate for the US dollar, stock price and the oil price of crude oil in the world economy were examined by
Samanta and Zadeh (2012). Bhunia (2013) studied the cointegration relationship between the Indian
economy’s oil price and financial variables, using the Johansen cointegration analysis and the Granger
causality method. Jain and Ghosh (2013) tested cointegration and Granger causality among global oil
prices, Indian rupee–US dollar exchange rate and precious metal (gold, platinum and silver) prices for the
period 2009–2011. Ozturk (2015) analysed the impact of oil price shocks on industrial production, money
supply and imports in Turkey using Granger causality analysis. Ratti and Vespignani (2016) examined the
relationship between oil prices, global industrial production, central bank interest rate and monetary
aggregate using the Global Factor-Augmented Error Correction Model (GFAECM). Kumar (2017) made
an attempt to explore the dynamic impact of variation in crude oil prices in global market on Indian stock
market volatility of crude oil. Troster et al. (2018) studied the causal relationship between oil values,
renewable energy consumption and economic movement in the USA (for the period 1989–2016) using
Granger causality. Their results confirmed unidirectional causation from oscillations in oil prices to
economic progression. Rao and Goyal (2018) explore the effect of fluctuations in the price of non-energy
commodities and oil on production, inflation and real effective exchange rate (REER) in India and
significant imports of commodities and oil. Troster et al. (2018) studied the causal relationship between oil
values, renewable energy consumption and economic movement in the USA (for a period of 1989 to 2016)
using Granger causality. Their results confirmed unidirectional causation from oscillations in oil prices to
economic progression. Oteng-Abayie et al. (2018) analysed the macroeconomic determinants of crude oil
demand by considering the case of Ghana. Asaleye et al. (2019) studied the impact of change in oil price on
employment in the Nigerian context. Sharma et al. (2019) analysed whether oil prices are an important
indicator of 31 macroeconomic variables of Indonesia, using monthly data ranging from 1986 to 2018.
Using auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) method, Phoong and Phoong (2019) conducted a similar
research on Malaysian economy. Mukhtarov et al. (2020) explored the effects of oil prices on Azerbaijan’s
economic growth, export, inflation and exchange rate using Johansen cointegration.
From the conclusive summary of related literature, a wide gap can be observed in studies on the
offered topic in the Indian context. The transmission channels on the association of crude oil prices and
other macroeconomic variables in the Indian context are very few. This gap can be used to check the
validity and affirmation of relationship and the impact of oil prices with other selected macroeconomic
variables in the Indian context. Therefore, the present study intends to make some conclusive contributions
to the relationship between crude oil prices and industrial value-added, inflation, foreign exchange rate
(between Indian rupee and US dollar) and stock prices (S&P BSE SENSEX).
price of crude oil refers to the spot price of a barrel. The current analysis uses Brent crude oil prices,
since it usually remains the benchmark for other crude oil prices. The indicators used for economic
activity include GDP, industrial production, inflation, exchange rate, stock prices and unemployment.
Please note that all the figures drawn in this section are based on the data taken for the period from 1991
to 2020.
Oil Prices and Unemployment
Unemployment is an indicator of the economy’s stability. Unemployment rate, which is the number of
unemployed people separated by the number of people in the work force, is the most frequent indicator
of unemployment. The National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) describes the status of a person who is
searching or available for jobs, and also a person who is not in a job, neither seeking a job nor available
for work, that is, ‘Unemployed’, as unemployment.
The negative and meaningful relationship between oil prices and industrial production suggests
shocks in oil prices are reducing developing countries’ industrial production. Such shocks affect industrial
efficiency by raising the cost of both imports and exports, and by decreasing demand for consumption
and investment. High oil price is also associated with unemployment in the economy. The statistical
relationship between the unemployment rate of a country and its economy’s growth rate was proposed
by Okun’s rule (Yale professor and economist Arthur Okun). One iteration of Okun’s legislation specified
rather clearly that gross national product (GNP) increases by 3% when unemployment declines by 1%.
The increased prices of goods and services decrease the real income of the consumer, compelling him/
her to cut down his expenditure. This disturbs the current equilibrium of demand and supply of
commodities and services in the economy due to a reduction in demand. Less demand followed by less
productivity affects the selling prices of goods and services, the rate of employment in the country, the
pattern of consumption, the real wage rate, interest rates, the investment part and the rate of economic
inflation (Loungani, 1986). Figure 1 presents percentage change in oil price and unemployment rate of
India for a period of 30 years (1991–2020).
Oil Prices and Gross Domestic Product
Gross domestic product is termed as the monetary value of all finished products and services produced
over a particular time within a country. GDP offers a country’s economic snapshot and is used to measure
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
-20
-40
-60
the size of an economy and the pace of growth. After the oil price fluctuations in the 1970s, the link
between oil prices and global GDP growth has been focussed. There are strong economic reasons to
predict the inverse relationship between GDP and the price of oil. The Economic Survey 2018 reports
that every US$10 per barrel increase in the price of oil reduces growth by 0.2–0.3 percentage points.
Figure 2 presents the percentage change in oil price and GDP of India for a period of 30 years (1991–
2020). It also explains the inverse relationship between the two variables.
Oil Prices and Industrial Production
As the major contributors to GDP, most of the developed economies have an industrial sector; hence, we
have a good reason to establish a connection between industrialization and economic growth. Industrial
production in the country can be seen as supply side. The availability of industrial goods can be depressed
by rises in oil prices because they raise the cost of manufacturing and transporting industrial produces.
High oil prices will change the supply curve of products and services for which oil is an input in economic
terminology. Index of industrial production has been used as a measure of industrial output in the current
study. The Industrial Production Index (IIP) is an index that shows output growth rates over a stipulated
period of time in various industry groups within the economy. Figure 3 presents an inverse association
between the percentage change in oil prices and industry value-added.
80
60
40
20
0
-20 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
-40
-60
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
-20
-40
-60
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
-20
-40
-60
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
-20
-40
-60
80
60
40
20
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930
-20
-40
-60
The Data
The data collected for this study contain the time series values of 30 years (annual data) starting from
1991 to 2020. The data on macroeconomic variables for current study have been collected from various
sources (The World Bank, CEIC database, Reserve bank of India, S&P BSE SENSEX). The data on
unemployment, GDP, industrial output and inflation have been taken from the official website of the
World Bank (World Bank data sources). The data on crude oil prices have been obtained from CEIC
Indian premium database. The data on exchange rate between Indian rupee and US dollars have been
taken from official website of Reserve Bank of India. And the S&P BSE stock price data have been
obtained from S&P BSE SENSEX official website. For numerical illustration purpose, we have coded
the variables as follows: crude oil prices in US dollars (Z), unemployment rate in percentage(V1), GDP
(V2), industrial output (V3), inflation (V4), exchange rate (V5) and stock market prices (V6). Our study
considers the long duration of about 30 years from 1991 to 2020 to fulfil the purpose of testing the short-
run as well as the long-run association among the variables considered. Owing to liberalization,
privatization and globalization in 1991, during this time, the macroeconomic activity also took a pace in
shaping the viewpoint so the aforesaid during was considered relevant to conduct the study.
Though the data for current study come from different sources, for better analysis and symmetric
numerical analysis, all the values have been converted into their natural logarithm. The association
between dependent and independent variables can be easily captured by comparability of trend (increase
or decrease) in the indices of time series considered for the study.
2016). If the cointegration is found among the variables, it means the variables have long-run association
among them. Johansen cointegration test was used to find the number of associations and also as a tool
to approximate those relationships (Poh & Tan, 1997). To find out the short-run relationship, we have
used Granger causality test. If there is cointegration among variables, then we apply Granger causality
test to check the short-run association among the variables (Granger, 1986). Vector autoregressive
techniques provide better non-stationarity tunings and establish long-term associations between factors
(Crane & Nourzad, 1998; Schmidt, 2000).
The confirmation of causality concludes the short-run relation among variables. The Granger
causality test assumes that for the estimation of these variables, the time series data of the given
variables provide the relevant details. Diebold (1998), in his study, explained the concept of predictive
causality. He exclaimed that for the prediction of yj, yi has all the relevant information. Prediction of yj
also requires the historical values of related variables. The test to verify the causality between two
variables includes estimating the following pair of regressions:
where u1t and u2t (the perturbations) are uncorrelated. Equation (1) states that X is dependent on the
past values of X and Y and Equation (2) postulates the same for Y. Unidirectional causality from X to Y
is shown if the assessed coefficient on Y (=1) lagged values is statistically different from zero as a group
(i.e., Σαi ≠ 0) and the estimated coefficient set on the lagged X (=2) is not significantly different from
zero (i.e., Σδj = 0). On the other hand, unidirectional causality from Y to X can be seen when the set of
lagged Y coefficient in Equation (1) is not statistically different from 0 (i.e., Σαi = 0) and the set of lagged
X coefficient in Equation 2 is different from zero (i.e., Σδj ≠ 0). Bilateral causality is assumed when the
sets of X and Y variables in each of the above regression equations are statistically significantly different
from zero.
Empirical Results
1. Crude oil prices in US dollars (Z): in the current study, spot price of a barrel has been given in in
US dollars.
2. Unemployment rate in percentage (V1): unemployed percentage of people >15 years (% of
total population).
3. Gross domestic product (GDP) (V2): GDP at factor cost in US$ million.
4. Industrial output (V3): industrial output growth rate (base year 2011–2012).
5. Inflation (V4): CPI index presenting 299 items (base year 2011–2012).
6. Exchange rate (V5): rate of exchange between Indian rupee and US dollars.
7. Stock market prices (V6): S&P BSE SENSEX annual prices.
10 Global Business Review
Descriptive Statistics
In this section, we have provided the data analysis results of the proposed work. Table 1 depicts the
descriptive statistics and Table 2 displays the coefficients of correlation among the macroeconomic
variables. Table 3 presents the results of the unit root test at a level, while Table 4 presents the unit root
test results at second differencing. Figures 7–13 show the trend plots of time-series’ at the level (without
differencing). Both unit root test results and figures designate that the taken series are not stationary at
level. The unit test results in Table 2 have been obtained at second differencing of all the series, which
indicates that the taken series are integrated at order 2.
(Table 3 Continued)
ADF PP KPSS
Variable Test Statistic p-Value Test Statistic p-Value Test Statistic p-Value
V4 −1.939 0.596 −10.359 0.456 0.221 0.01
V5 −2.541 0.365 −11.736 0.365 0.955 0.01
V6 −2.580 0.350 −15.68 0.104 1.038 0.01
Source: The authors.
(Table 5 Continued)
stock prices (S&P BSE SENSEX). The causality from stock prices to oil prices is identified at lag order 2.
The result confirms a very weak causality running from stock prices to crude oil prices. Hence, in the Indian
context, the short-term association between oil prices and macroeconomic activities can be identified.
Threats to Validity
The current research is relevant only in the Indian context and for the current data set. Our study is
limited to the impact of Z on V1, V2, …, V6 and assumed the other variables as constant. It is possible
that across different countries, the relation among variables varies depending on the form, property and
length of the data used for the analysis. The research study is limited to the economic effects of crude oil
prices, and it does not cover the areas of taxes, duties, government revenues arising from crude oil and
other petroleum products. The direction and magnitude of relationship among variables can be diverse
in developed, developing and under developing economies due to different phases of economic activities.
India is a developing economy where this relationship between oil price and other macroeconomic
variables can be different due to its own process of economic change and fiscal and monetary policies.
16 Global Business Review
Managerial Implications
The present study is useful for policymakers to effectively prepare and execute various policies in
different sectors if there is a fluctuation in the economy’s oil prices. Various policy fields include pricing
policies, employment policies and international trade policies as indirectly affected by fluctuations in oil
prices. In addition, our study describes that fund managers and individual investors should consider the
volatility of the oil price when making investment decisions. Oil prices in industrial sectors make raw
materials, intermediate goods and final products expensive than earlier; hence, the results of this research
article can also be helpful to industrial managers in framing policies to reduce this cost and revise prices
as needed. Our study will help corporate managers and decision-makers in government to understand the
impact of change in oil price on related variables which in turn will allow them to make strategic
decisions for future.
Appendix A
Funding
The authors received no financial support for the research, authorship and/or publication of this article.
ORCID iDs
Preeti Sharma https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7758-9720
Avinash K. Shrivastava https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7794-7129
References
Ahmed, H. J. A., & Wadud, I. M. (2011). Role of oil price shocks on macroeconomic activities: An SVAR approach
to the Malaysian economy and monetary responses. Energy Policy, 39(12), 8062–8069.
Arezki, M. R., Jakab, Z., Laxton, M. D., Matsumoto, M. A., Nurbekyan, A., Wang, H., & Yao, J. (2017). Oil prices
and the global economy. International Monetary Fund.
Asaleye, A. J., Aremu, C. O., Lawal, A. I., Inegbedion, H., Popoola, O., Adewara, S. O., & Obasaju, B. O. (2019).
Oil price shock and macroeconomic performance in Nigeria: Implication on employment. International Journal
of Energy Economics and Policy, 9(5), 451–457.
Sharma and Shrivastava 19
Barsky, R. B., & Kilian, L. (2004). Oil and the macroeconomy since the 1970s. Journal of Economic Perspectives,
18(4), 115–134.
Bhunia, A. (2013). Cointegration and causal relationship among crude price, domestic gold price and financial
variables: An evidence of BSE and NSE. Journal of Contemporary Issues in Business Research, 2(1), 1–10.
Brahmasrene, T., Huang, J. C., & Sissoko, Y. (2014). Crude oil prices and exchange rates: Causality, variance
decomposition and impulse response. Energy Economics, 44, 407–412.
Crane, S. E., & Nourzad, F. (1998). Improving local manufacturing employment forecasts using cointegration anal-
ysis. Growth and Change, 29(2), 175–195.
Cunado, J., & De Gracia, F. P. (2005). Oil prices, economic activity and inflation: Evidence for some Asian coun-
tries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 45(1), 65–83.
Diebold, F. X. (1998). Elements of forecasting. South-Western College Pub.
Engle, R. F., & Granger, C. W. J. (1987). Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing.
Econometrica, 55, 251–276.
Granger, C. W. J. (1986). Developments in the study of cointegrated economic variables. Oxford Bulletin of
Economics and Statistics, 48(3), 213–228.
Herrera, A. M., Karaki, M. B., & Rangaraju, S. K. (2019). Oil price shocks and US economic activity. Energy
Policy, 129, 89–99.
Hooker, M. A. (2002). Are oil shocks inflationary? Asymmetric and nonlinear specifications versus changes in
regime. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 34(2), 540–561.
Iwayemi, A., & Fowowe, B. (2011a). Oil and the macroeconomy: Empirical evidence from oil‐exporting African
countries. OPEC Energy Review, 35(3), 227–269.
Iwayemi, A., & Fowowe, B. (2011b). Impact of oil price shocks on selected macroeconomic variables in Nigeria.
Energy Policy, 39(2), 603–612.
Jain, A., & Ghosh, S. (2013). Dynamics of global oil prices, exchange rate and precious metal prices in India.
Resources Policy, 38(1), 88–93.
Krugman, P. (2008). Fuels on the hill. New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/27/opinion/27krugman.
html
Kumar, R. (2017). Examining the dynamic and non-linear linkages between crude oil price and Indian stock market
volatility. Global Business Review, 18(2), 388–401.
Lescaroux, F., & Mignon, V. (2008). On the influence of oil prices on economic activity and other macroeconomic
and financial variables. OPEC Energy Review, 32(4), 343–380.
Loungani, P. (1986). Oil price shocks and the dispersion hypothesis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 58,
536–539.
Mukhtarov, S., Aliyev, S., & Zeynalov, J. (2020). The effects of oil prices on macroeconomic variables: Evidence
from Azerbaijan. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(1), 72.
Nkoro, E., & Uko, A. K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: Application and
interpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 5(4), 63–91.
Oteng-Abayie, E. F., Ayinbilla, P. A., & Eshun, M. E. (2018). Macroeconomic determinants of crude oil demand in
Ghana. Global Business Review, 19(4), 873–888.
Ozturk, F. (2015). Oil price shocks-macro economy relationship in Turkey. Asian Economic and Financial Review,
5(5), 846–857.
Phoong, S. W., & Phoong, S. Y. (2019). An ARDL approach on crude oil price and macroeconomic variables.
Journal of Business and Economic Review, 4(1), 68–73.
Poh, C. W., & Tan, R. (1997). Performance of Johansen's cointegration test. In J. D. Kendall (Ed.), East Asian eco-
nomic issues (Vol. III, pp. 402–414). World Scientific.
Rafiq, S., Salim, R., & Bloch, H. (2009). Impact of crude oil price volatility on economic activities: An empirical
investigation in the Thai economy. Resources Policy, 34(3), 121–132.
Rao, D. T., & Goyal, S. (2018). Global commodity and oil price movements, macroeconomic performance and chal-
lenges for an emerging economy: The Indian experience. Global Business Review, 19(3), 650–674.
20 Global Business Review
Ratti, R. A., & Vespignani, J. L. (2016). Oil prices and global factor macroeconomic variables. Energy Economics,
59, 198–212.
Saghaian, S. H. (2010). The impact of the oil sector on commodity prices: Correlation or causation? Journal of
Agricultural and Applied Economics, 42(1379-2016-113630), 477–485.
Samanta, S. K., & Zadeh, A. H. (2012). Co-movements of oil, gold, the US dollar, and stocks. Modern Economy,
3(1), 111–117.
Schmidt, M. B. (2000). The dynamic behavior of wages and prices: Cointegration tests within a large macroeco-
nomic system. Southern Economic Journal, 67(1), 123–138.
Sharma, S. S., Phan, D. H. B., & Iyke, B. (2019). Do oil prices predict Indonesian macroeconomy? Economic
Modelling, 82, 2–12.
Sill, K. (2007). The macroeconomics of oil shocks. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Business Review, 1(1),
21–31.
Trang, N. T. N., Tho, T. N., & Hong, D. T. T. (2017). The impact of oil price on the growth, inflation, unemploy-
ment and budget deficit of Vietnam. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 7(3), 42–49.
Troster, V., Shahbaz, M., & Uddin, G. S. (2018). Renewable energy, oil prices, and economic activity: A Granger-
causality in quantiles analysis. Energy Economics, 70, 440–452.
Wei, Y., & Guo, X. (2016). An empirical analysis of the relationship between oil prices and the Chinese macro-
economy. Energy Economics, 56, 88–100.