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01 04 Islm 2013
01 04 Islm 2013
01 04 Islm 2013
IS-LM MODEL
Since now…
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
1
The Goods Market and the IS Relation
Y = C(Y − T ) + I + G
2
The Goods Market and the IS Relation
3
The Goods Market and the IS Relation
Investment, Sales, and the Interest Rate
I = I (Y , i )
The level of sales (+)
The interest rate (-)
( + ,− )
I = a ⋅Y − b ⋅ i
or
I = I0 − b ⋅ i
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 8
4
The Goods Market and the IS Relation
Determining Output
Y = C(Y − T ) + I (Y , i ) + G
For a given value of the interest rate i, demand is an
increasing function of output, for two reasons:
An increase in output leads to an increase in
income and also to an increase in disposable
income.
An increase in output also leads to an increase in
investment.
5
The Goods Market and the IS Relation
Determining Output
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
Figure 5
Equilibrium in the
Goods Market
The demand for goods is an
increasing function of output.
Equilibrium requires that the
demand for goods be equal to
output.
6
The Goods Market and the IS Relation
Deriving the IS Curve
In words:
“The increase in the interest rate decreases
investment.
The decrease in investment leads to a
decrease in the aggregate demand and in
output, which further decreases consumption
and investment through the multiplier effect.”
i I Z Y Yd C Z Y …..
7
The Goods Market and the IS Relation
Deriving the IS Curve
Figure
The Derivation of the IS
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
Curve
(a) An increase in the interest
rate decreases the
demand for goods at any
level of output, leading to a
decrease in the equilibrium
level of output.
is drawn as downward-sloping with the interest rate (ii) on the vertical axis and GDP (gross
domestic product: Y) on the horizontal axis
8
The Goods Market and the IS Relation
The IS Curve
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
To summarize:
Equilibrium in the goods market implies that an increase in
the interest rate leads to a decrease in output. This relation
is represented by the downward-sloping IS curve.
Changes in factors that decrease the demand for goods,
given the interest rate, shift the IS curve to the left. Changes
in factors that increase the demand for goods, given the
interest rate, shift the IS curve to the right.
9
The Goods Market and the IS Relation
Shifts of the IS Curve
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
Figure
Shifts of the IS Curve
An increase in taxes
shifts the IS curve to
the left.
M = $YL(i )
10
Financial Markets and the LM Relation
Real Money, Real Income, and the Interest Rate
= YL(i )
M
P
recall that Nominal GDP = Real GDP multiplied by the GDP
deflator:
$Y = YP
Equivalently: $Y
=Y
P
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 21
in the demand for money leads to an increase increase in the interest rate.
in the equilibrium interest rate. The LM curve is therefore
upward sloping.
11
Financial Markets and the LM Relation
Deriving the LM Curve
12
Financial Markets and the LM Relation
Shifts of the LM Curve
Figure
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
An increase in
money causes
the LM curve to
shift down.
13
Putting the IS and the LM Relations
Together
IS relation: Y = C(Y − T ) + I (Y , i ) + G
M
LM relation: = YL(i )
P
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
Figure
The IS–LM Model
Equilibrium in the goods market
implies that an increase in the
interest rate leads to a
decrease in output. This is
represented by the IS curve.
Equilibrium in financial markets
implies that an increase in
output leads to an increase in A
the interest rate. This is
represented by the LM curve.
Only at point A, which is on
both curves, are both goods
and financial markets in
equilibrium.
IS relation: Y = C(Y − T ) + I (Y , i ) + G
M
LM relation: = YL(i )
P i
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
LM
The short-run
equilibrium is the
combination of r and Y
that simultaneously
satisfies the
IS
equilibrium conditions
in the goods & money
Equilibrium Y
markets
interest
Equilibrium
rate
level of
income
14
Summary
Alvin Hansen.
• The model examines the combined equilibrium of two
markets :
The goods market, which is at equilibrium when investments
equal savings, hence IS.
The money market, which is at equilibrium when the demand for
liquidity equals money supply, hence LM.
Examining the joint equilibrium in these two markets allows us to
determine two variables : output Y and the interest rate i.
Summary
IS curve
comes from “Keynesian cross” when planned investment depends
negatively on interest rate
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
LM curve
comes from liquidity preference theory when
money demand depends positively on income
shows all combinations of r and Y that equate demand for real
money balances with supply
15
Summary
IS-LM model
Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point (Y, r )
that satisfies equilibrium in both the goods and money markets.
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
16
Putting the IS and the LM Relations
Together
17
Putting the IS and the LM Relations
Together
Expansionary and Contractionary Policy
• Expansionary
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
• Contractionary
shifts the appropriate curve leftward
18
Putting the IS and the LM Relations
Together
The effect of an increase in GOVERNMENT SPENDING
LM
G – T = S(Y ) – I(i )
Now that we have integrated interest rates, if G-T increases (fiscal policy), the
economy attempts to correct the disequilibrium by:
Increasing S (multiplier effect on output)
Reducing I (crowding
crowding out on private investment)
19
Putting the IS and the LM Relations
Together
The effect of an increase in GOVERNMENT SPENDING
LM
$500, so the IS increases by $1000.
9%
2. If the demand for
money is totally
insensitive to the
$1000 interest rate, the
interest rate
4% increases from 4%
IS1 to 9%.
20
Putting the IS and the LM Relations
Together
The effect of an increase in GOVERNMENT SPENDING
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
21
Putting the IS and the LM Relations
Together
Monetary Policy, Activity, and the Interest Rate
Monetary policy does not affect the IS curve, only the LM curve.
For example, an increase in the money supply shifts the LM
curve down.
shifts LM to the
Interest rate i
right ….
LM
2. …Which
reduces the rate
of interest...
LM’
3. …And
increases output
by stimulating
investment.
i1
i2
IS
Y1 Y2 Income, Output Y
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 44
22
Using a Policy Mix
23
Using a Policy Mix
24
The Central Bank’s response to ∆G > 0
If Congress raises G,
the IS curve shifts i
right LM1
If Fed holds M
constant, then LM
curve doesn’t shift. i2
i1
Results:
IS2
∆Y = Y 2 − Y1 IS1
Y
Y1 Y2
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 50
25
The Central Bank’s response to ∆G > 0
If Congress raises G,
the IS curve shifts i LM1
right
LM2
To keep r constant,
Fed increases M to i2
shift LM curve right. i1
Results: IS2
∆Y = Y 3 − Y1 IS1
∆i = 0 Y1 Y2 Y3
Y
26
Using a Policy Mix
Budget surplus (% of GDP) −3.3 − 4.5 − 3.8 − 2.7 − 2.4 − 1.4 − 0.3 0.8
(minus sign = deficit)
GDP growth (%) −0.9 2.7 2.3 3.4 2.0 2.7 3.9 3.7
Interest rate (%) 7.3 5.5 3.7 3.3 5.0 5.6 5.2 4.8
27
The Clinton-Greenspan Policy Mix
Interest rate i
Y2 Y1 Income, Output Y
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 55
German reunification
28
German reunification
Y1 Y2 Income, Output Y
Liquidity trap
If increases in the money supply
fail to lower interest rates,
monetary policy is ineffective in increasing output.
29
CURRENT LIQUIDITY TRAP?
Y2 Y1 Income, Output Y
30
The U.S. Recession of 2001
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
31
The U.S. Recession of 2001
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
32
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti Other Theories
33
What is the Fed’s policy instrument?
240 30
Unemployment
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
(right scale)
220 25
billions of 1958 dollars
200 20
180 15
160 10
Real GNP
140 (left scale) 5
120 0
1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 68
34
The Spending Hypothesis:
Shocks to the IS Curve
Drop in investment
“correction” after overbuilding in the 1920s
widespread bank failures made it harder to obtain financing for
investment
Contractionary fiscal policy
in the face of falling tax revenues and increasing deficits,
politicians raised tax rates and cut spending
35
The Money Hypothesis:
A Shock to the LM Curve
36
Some exercises and revision (1)
4.000.
Derive the LM equation and discuss the level of the interest rate
when income is 400.000.
What happens in the money market if income increase to 500.000?
Why? Explain detailed both with words and with algebra.
37
Some exercises and revision (3)
TR = 20.000 G = 80.000
I = 100.000 – 4.000i
38
The IS-LM model
in the OPEN ECONOMY
39
Openness in Goods and Financial Markets
40
Openness in Goods Markets
Exports and Imports
41
Openness in Goods Markets
Exports and Imports
Ratios of Exports to GDP for Selected OECD Countries, 2006
Country Export Ratio (%) Country Export Ratio (%)
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
42
Openness in Goods Markets
The Choice between Domestic Goods and Foreign Goods
43
Openness in Goods Markets
Nominal Exchange Rates
44
Openness in Goods Markets
From Nominal to Real Exchange Rates
BUT…
if we are interested in the choice
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
45
Openness in Goods Markets
From Nominal to Real Exchange Rates
The Construction of the Real Exchange Rate
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
EP
ε =
P *
46
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
47
Openness in Financial Markets
The Balance of Payments
Table 18-3 The U.S. Balance of Payments, 2006 (in billions of U.S. dollars)
Current Account
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
Exports 1,436
Imports 2,200
Trade balance (deficit = −) (1) -763
Investment income received 620
Investment income paid 629
Net investment income (2) -9
Net transfers received (3) -84
Current account balance (deficit = -) (1) + (2) + (3) -856
Capital Account
Increase in foreign holdings of U.S. assets (4) 1,764
Increase in U.S. holdings of foreign assets (5) 1,049
Capital account balance (deficit = -) (4) − (5) 715
Statistical discrepancy 141
48
Openness in Financial Markets
The Balance of Payments
The Current Account
The sum of net payments in the current
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
transactions.
49
Openness in Financial Markets
The Choice between Domestic and Foreign Assets
Figure 18 - 6
Expected Returns from
Holding One-Year U.S.
Bonds or One-Year U.K.
Bonds
1
(1 + i ) = ( E )(1 + i )
*
t t t e
E t +1
E
(1 + i ) = (1 + i )
*
t
t t e
E t +1
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 100
50
Openness in Financial Markets
The Choice between Domestic and Foreign Assets
It ignores risk.
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 101
51
Openness in Financial Markets
Interest Rates and Exchange Rates
(1 + i ) *
(1 + i ) = t
[1 + ( E − E ) / E )]
t e
t +1 t t
−E
e
i ≈i − E
*
t +1 t
t t
E t
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 103
−E
e
i ≈i − E
*
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
t +1 t
t t
E t
E =E i = i
e *
If t +1 t then t t
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 104
52
Openness in Financial Markets
Interest Rates and Exchange Rates
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 105
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 106
53
The IS Relation in an Open Economy
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 107
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 108
54
The IS Relation in an Open Economy
The Determinants of C, I, and G
Domestic Demand:
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
C + I + G = C (Y − T ) + I (Y , r ) + G
( + ) (+,-)
The real exchange rate affects the composition
of consumption and investment, but not the overall
level of these aggregates.
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 109
IM = IM (Y , ε )
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
( + ,+ )
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 110
55
The IS Relation in an Open Economy
The Determinants of Exports
X = X (Y * , ε )
( + ,− )
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 111
Y =Z
Y = C (Y − T ) + I (Y , r ) + G − IM (Y , ε ) / ε + X (Y *, ε )
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 112
56
Increases in Demand, Domestic or Foreign
Fiscal Policy Revisited
We have derived two basic results so far:
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 113
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 114
57
Depreciation, the Trade Balance, and Output
EP
ε≡
P *
In words:
The real exchange rate, ε
, is equal to the nominal
exchange rate, E, times the domestic price level, P,
divided by the foreign price level, P*.
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 115
NX = X (Y , ε ) − IM (Y , ε ) / ε
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
Exports, X, increase.
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 116
58
Depreciation, the Trade Balance and Output
Depreciation and the Trade Balance:
The Marshall–Lerner Condition
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 117
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 118
59
Looking at Dynamics: The J-Curve
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 119
The J-Curve
A real depreciation leads
initially to a deterioration and
then to an improvement of the
trade balance.
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 120
60
Saving, Investment, and the Trade Balance
Y = C + I + G − IM / ε + X
Subtract C + T from both sides and use the fact that
private saving is given by S = Y – C – T to get
S = I + G − T − IM / ε + X
Use the definition of net exports, NX ≡ X − IM /ε , and
reorganize, to get:
NX = S + (T − G ) − I
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 121
NX = S + (T − G ) − I
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 122
61
The U.S. Trade Deficit: Origins and Implications
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 123
Figure 1 U.S. Net Saving and Net Investment since 1996 (percent of GDP)
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 124
62
The U.S. Trade Deficit: Origins and Implications
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 125
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 126
63
Equilibrium in the Goods Market
Y = C (Y − T ) + I (Y , r ) + G − IM (Y , ε ) / ε + X (Y , ε ) *
( + ) ( + ,− ) ( + ,+ ) ( + ,− )
NX (Y , Y , ε ) ≡ X (Y , ε ) − IM (Y , ε ) / ε
* *
Y = C (Y − T ) + I (Y , r ) + G + NX (Y , Y , ε ) *
( + ) ( + ,− ) (− + − )
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 127
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 128
64
PRICE and EXPECTATION
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 130
65
PRICE and EXPECTATION
W = P e F ( u, z )
P = (1 + µ )W
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 131
P = P e (1 + µ ) F (u, z )
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 132
66
PRICE and EXPECTATION
U L− N N Y
u= = = 1− = 1−
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti
L L L L
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 133
Y
P = P e (1 + µ ) F 1 − , z
L
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 134
67
PRICE and EXPECTATION
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 135
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 136
68
Business Economics and Organization – prof. Francesco Venuti Aggregate Supply
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 137
Aggregate Supply
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 138
69
Aggregate Supply
Let’s summarize:
This means that for a given expected price level, the price
level is an increasing function of the level of output. It is
represented by an upward-sloping curve, called the
aggregate supply curve.
Business Economics and Organization – A.A. 2013/2014 – prof. Francesco Venuti 139
70