ATOC 4880/5880

Mesoscale Meteorology

Convection Initiation

Spring 2023
SEEC Bldg., Room N129
Tuesdays and Thursdays 11:30 am –12:45 pm

Dr. David Kingsmill

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation
 Convection Initiation
Key issue:
• Where and when will deep, moist convection initiate?
Why is it important?
• Severe weather forecasting
o tornadoes, hail, high winds, lightning, flash floods
1906 UTC (1:06 PM MDT) 18 June 2018
Denver Balloon Sounding
18 UTC (Noon MDT) 18 June 2018

Cap

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Convection Initiation
Key issue:
• Where and when will deep, moist convection initiate?
Why is it important?
• Severe weather forecasting
o tornadoes, hail, high winds, lightning, flash floods
0145 UTC (7:45 PM MDT) 18 June 2018
Denver Balloon Sounding
00 UTC (6 PM MDT) 18 June 2018

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Environmental Conditions
How do environments become (more) favorable for the
initiation of deep convection? A few possibilities:

Layer Low-level Low-level

lifting moistening warming

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Environmental Conditions
How well does a given sounding
represent the environment? For
example, different soundings in a field
of HCRs can exhibit significantly
different characteristics:

From Weckwerth et al. (1996)

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation
 Environmental Conditions
Mixing in the boundary layer can effectively
alter the sounding to diminish the chances
of convection initiation:

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Significance of Mesoscale Boundaries
There is not a preferred location for convection initiation
across northeast Colorado; it appears to be random….

From Wilson and Schreiber (1986)

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation
 Significance of Mesoscale Boundaries
However, the vast majority of these
convective storms initiated in close
proximity to a mesoscale boundary

From Wilson and Schreiber (1986) ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation
Horizontal Vorticity Balance Across Boundaries

Horizontal vorticity
Baroclinic Environmental in balance ≡
Erect Updraft

Horizontal vorticity
out of balance ≡
Tilted Updraft

From Wilson et al. (1998)

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation
Horizontal Vorticity Balance Across Boundaries
Gust Front Example

Reflectivity

From Kingsmill (1995)

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation
Horizontal Vorticity Balance Across Boundaries
Gust Front Example

Doppler radial velocity Reflectivity

From Kingsmill (1995)

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation
 Horizontal Vorticity Balance Across Boundaries
Gust Front Example

Dual-Doppler Analysis

Box A behind gust front

Box B ahead of gust front

𝑈𝑈 ′ ≡ Horizontal winds oriented normal to gust front

Horizontal vorticity implied from profile of 𝑈𝑈𝐴𝐴′ is of
opposite sign but much larger magnitude than that
implied from profile of 𝑈𝑈𝐵𝐵′ . Therefore, horizontal
vorticity is not in balance.

From Kingsmill (1995) ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

Horizontal Vorticity Balance Across Boundaries
Gust Front Example

The horizontal vorticity imbalance

created a titled updraft that may or
may not have allowed surface air
parcels to be lifted to their LFC
(depends on how much mixing is
assumed).
So, why was convection able to form?

From Kingsmill (1995)

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Interaction of Boundaries with HCRs
Sea-Breeze Front Example
Interactions of HCRs with
SBF can influence cloud
development and possibly
convection initiation.

From Atkins et al. (1995) ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Interaction of Boundaries with HCRs
Sea-Breeze Front Example
Two mechanisms of cloud development
through HCR/SBF interaction:
• Enhanced updraft at intersections
• Enhancement of an existing cloud
Conditions not conducive to development of deep
convection in this case

From Atkins et al. (1995) ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Interaction of Boundaries with HCRs
Gust Front Example

The convection behind the gust front

originated from clouds ahead of the gust
front that formed along the upward branches
of HCRs.
These clouds/HCRs had a somewhat lower
LFC, which allowed the tilted updraft along
the gust front to initiate convection.

From Kingsmill (1995) ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Interaction of Boundaries with HCRs
Dryline Example
Intersections between HCRs and the dryline are also favored locations for
enhanced updrafts and corresponding cloud development

From Atkins et al. (1998) ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Misocyclones along Boundaries

Misocyclone ≡ A vertically oriented vortex with a width perpendicular to

the axis of rotation of between 40 m and 4 km. Their formation is often
attributed to horizontal wind shear across a mesoscale boundary.

Misocyclones can produce localized updraft maxima along boundaries:

From Kingsmill (1995) ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Misocyclones along Boundaries

Misocyclone ≡ A vertically oriented vortex with a width perpendicular to

the axis of rotation of between 40 m and 4 km. Their formation is often
attributed to horizontal wind shear across a mesoscale boundary.

Misocyclones can produce localized updraft maxima along boundaries:

From Kingsmill (1995) ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Misocyclones along Boundaries

Misocyclone ≡ A vertically oriented vortex with a width perpendicular to

the axis of rotation of between 40 m and 4 km. Their formation is often
attributed to horizontal wind shear across a mesoscale boundary.

Misocyclones can produce localized updraft maxima along boundaries:

From Kingsmill (1995) ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Misocyclones along Boundaries
Horizontal Shearing Instability

Vorticity maxima can develop from a pure vortex sheet. Once

perturbed, theory indicates that these instabilities will be spaced
along the shear interface 7.5 times the width of the shear zone.

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Misocyclones along Boundaries
Idealized Numerical Simulations

Proxy for
density current

Schematic showing a
pattern of misocyclones
(x’s) along an inflected
boundary. Each
misocyclone is surrounded
by two convergence
maxima (+’s)

From Lee and Wilhelmson (1997) ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation
 Misocyclones along Boundaries
Observational Composites
Observations indicate a more complicated relationship between misocyclones and
convergence (implied updrafts). Moreover, a clear linkage between misocyclone-
induced updrafts and convection initiation has yet to be demonstrated observationally.

3 Synoptic Fronts/Drylines in
11 Gust Fronts in Florida
Kansas/Oklahoma

From Friedrich et al. (2005)

From Marquis et al. (2007) ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation
 Boundary Collisions
…More reliably lead to convection initiation:

Collision between a gust front and sea-breeze front in Florida

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Boundary Collisions
…More reliably lead to convection initiation:

Collision between a gust front and sea-breeze front in Florida

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Boundary Collisions
…More reliably lead to convection initiation:

Collision between a gust front and sea-breeze front in Florida

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Boundary Collisions
…More reliably lead to convection initiation:

Collision between a gust front and sea-breeze front in Florida

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation
 Boundary Collisions
…More reliably lead to convection initiation:

Another Florida GF/SBF collision

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Boundary Collisions
…More reliably lead to convection initiation:

Another Florida GF/SBF collision

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Boundary Collisions
…More reliably lead to convection initiation:

Another Florida GF/SBF collision

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Boundary Collisions
…More reliably lead to convection initiation:

Another Florida GF/SBF collision

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Boundary Collisions
Horizontal vorticity balance arguments

Baroclinic Environmental VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORMS

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Boundary Collisions
…More reliably lead to convection initiation----BUT NOT ALWAYS:

Yet another Florida GF/SBF collision

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Boundary Collisions
…More reliably lead to convection initiation----BUT NOT ALWAYS:

Yet another Florida GF/SBF collision

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Boundary Collisions
…More reliably lead to convection initiation----BUT NOT ALWAYS:

Yet another Florida GF/SBF collision

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Boundary Collisions
…More reliably lead to convection initiation----BUT NOT ALWAYS:

Yet another Florida GF/SBF collision

ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation

 Boundary (Almost) Collisions
Boundaries in close proximity to one another do not necessarily
need to make contact in order to promote convection initiation:

Two cases in Kansas, each

with a quasi-stationary cold
front and dryline that were
~parallel to one another and
separated by ~10-20 km.

From Wakimoto and Murphey (2010) ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation
 Boundary (Almost) Collisions
Boundaries in close proximity to one another do not necessarily
need to make contact in order to promote convection initiation:

Meso-β scale
analysis derived
from dropsonde data

Cross-boundary buoyancy gradient implies the

presence of two counter-rotating horizontal
vortices resolvable on the meso-β scale. These
structures were not clearly evident in the meso-γ
scale Doppler radar analyses. Also note the broad
area of weak upward motions.
From Wakimoto and Murphey (2010) ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation
 Boundary (Almost) Collisions
Boundaries in close proximity to one another do not necessarily
need to make contact in order to promote convection initiation:

Meso-β scale
analysis derived
from dropsonde data

Cross-boundary buoyancy gradient implies the

presence of two counter-rotating horizontal
vortices resolvable on the meso-β scale. These
structures were not clearly evident in the meso-γ
scale Doppler radar analyses. Also note the broad
area of weak upward motions.
From Wakimoto and Murphey (2010) ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation
 Boundary (Almost) Collisions
Horizontal vorticity balance arguments

VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORMS

Baroclinic Environmental

FAVORABLE FOR STORMS????????

Meso-β Meso-β

Meso-β

Meso-γ Meso-γ
ATOC Mesoscale Meteorology: Convection Initiation