WEEK SALES 3-Month Moving Average Error │Error│ Error

1 39
2 44
3 40
4 45 41 4 4 16
5 38 43 -5 5 25
6 43 41 2 2 4
7 39 42 -3 3 9
8 40
14 54
3.5 13.5
MAD MSE
│% Error│

8.89%
13.16%
4.65%
7.69%

34.39%
8.60%
MAPE
WEEK SALES
1 39
Regretion - Naura zahrania
2 41 46
3 40 45
4 42 44 f(x) = 0.892857142857143 x + 38.2857142857143
5 43 43 R² = 0.897988505747126
6 43 42
7 45 41
8 45.4
40
52 84.7
39
38
37
36
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
on - Naura zahrania

57143 x + 38.2857142857143
7126

4 5 6 7 8
periode Year Month Demand linear trend forecast seasonal forecast with trend
1 2014 January 233 191.68 206.76
2 February 223 195.44 203.22
3 March 208 199.19 195.52
4 April 195 202.95 188.96
5 May 197 206.71 194.06
6 June 196 210.46 196.77
7 July 212 214.22 213.59
8 August 219 217.98 223.27
9 September 225 221.73 232.28
10 October 219 225.49 230.96
11 November 196 229.24 214.33
12 December 230 233.00 248.61
13 2015 January 266 236.76 255.38
14 February 256 240.51 250.09
15 March 241 244.27 239.76
16 April 228 248.03 230.92
17 May 230 251.78 236.38
18 June 229 255.54 238.91
19 July 245 259.30 258.54
20 August 252 263.05 269.44
21 September 258 266.81 279.51
22 October 252 270.56 277.13
23 November 229 274.32 256.47
24 December 263 278.08 296.71
25 2016 January 334 281.83 304.00
26 February 324 285.59 296.96
27 March 309 289.35 284.01
28 April 296 293.10 272.89
29 May 298 296.86 278.70
30 June 297 300.62 281.05
31 July 313 304.37 303.49
32 August 320 308.13 315.61
33 September 326 311.89 326.73
34 October 320 315.64 323.31
35 November 297 319.40 298.61
36 December 331 323.15 344.81
37 2017 January 326.91 352.63
38 February 330.67 343.83
39 March 334.42 328.25
40 April 338.18 314.86
41 May 341.94 321.01
42 June 345.69 323.20
43 July 349.45 348.43
44 August 353.21 361.78
45 September 356.96 373.95
46 October 360.72 369.48
47 November 364.47 340.76
48 December 368.23 392.91
 187.92
3.7564

January 1.078666
February 1.039819
March 0.981547
April 0.931046
May 0.938815
June 0.93493
July 0.997086
August 1.02428
September 1.047588
October 1.02428
November 0.93493
December 1.067012

Chart Title
400

350

300 f(x) = 50.5 x − 101479.833333333

R² = 0.961511876335302
250

200

150

100

50

0
2013.5 2014 2014.5 2015 2015.5

sesasonal trend - nama

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50
 0
50
100
150
200
250

January
February
March
April
May
June
2014

July
August
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
2015

July
Column D

August
September
October
November
December
January
February
Column E

March
April
May
June
2016

July
August
Column F

September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June
2017

July
Title

5 2015.5 2016 2016.5

F
September
October
November
December
January
February
March
April
May
June

2017
July
August
September
October
November
December