"Will there be an aurora TONIGHT?? If not, WHEN?!?

"
or
"Will there be an aurora in [choose month] when I will be
visiting Tasmania*?"
No one (not AAT, not "science", no App) knows for certain
when an aurora will occur. We determine immediate possibility
by many factors (*long term prediction is, sadly, totally
impossible).

App forecasts and predictions are generally geared to the

Northern Hemisphere-biased "kp" which is the worst
“prediction tool” possible for chasers.

And then there is the weather which can also change quickly to
block visibility!

Use our group to provide information on real-time sightings

and observation. Some auroras are not predicted, especially
“stealth auroras” and occasionally solar storms caused by
Coronal Hole High Speed Streams (CHHSS).
• Recent solar activity is usually important. It's all up to the
Sun!
• The only app we use is Glendale http://aurora-alerts.uk
Enter your location and select the map “Oceania”
• Forecasts by space weather agencies such as the NOAA
in the USA and the BOM in Australia are helpful as a
heads up but not 100% guaranteed to occur.
• Monitoring space weather instruments and measurements
such as solar wind speed, temperature, density and
magnetic strength and orientation, can be very useful but
the best indicator is substorm strength, best accessed in
the Glendale app.
 • Checking the aurora oval maps is the least reliable
indicator.
"Where is a good spot to see an aurora?” We have a map of
suggested viewing locations https://www.google.com/
maps/d/u/0/edit?
mid=1vIVmqMivRjIEj1zXVepsrvgo2OEzv5Y&usp=sharing

• All of Tasmania is really equally good as long as you nd a

spot away from all light with a clear view (no trees,
mountains, etc) to the South. Other Australian States are
likely to see the "top" of the aurora seen in Tassie, but
these same viewing suggestions apply everywhere.
• Southern Hemisphere aurorae are always from the
South. Sometimes they extend up quite high, but often
they do not. Having a southerly view which includes the
SE and SW can also be helpful, especially with subauroral
forms such as an ion (aka STEVE) arc which originates at
the outer edge of an aurora.
• If you can nd the Southern Cross constellation and
face it, you can use it to nd out where South is as
explained here: http://www.sydneyobservatory.com.au/
2013/ nding-south-using-the-southern-cross. Give your
eyes several minutes to adjust to the dark.
• You may see a naked eye glow that seems like the
glow of a nearby town. If you are looking south and there
is no known light source to the south, that is likely the
aurora.
Continue to watch, as the aurora is constantly changing and
shifting. You may think there is just an inert glow, but
suddenly beams of light can rise up and, just as quickly,
disappear.
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 • If you are interested in seeing an aurora, it is best to
nd a good viewing spot before an aurora actually occurs.
When an aurora is underway, we are all generally in a hurry
and it's not the best time to ask where to go. It could even
be dangerous trying to nd a remote spot for the rst time,
in the dark, so do scope out a good spot in daylight!
Some of us are likely to be at South Arm and Howden.
Tourists may nd Mount Nelson and Mount Wellington
easier to locate but be prepared for possible low
temperatures and wind on Mount Wellington.
• If an aurora is strong enough, it may be visible from
mainland Australia. We have amazing contributions from
photographers in WA, VIC, SA, and NSW. A faint aurora
may only be visible on camera. For camera settings see
https://www.facebook.com/groups/auroraaustralis/
permalink/1779260188775523/
“Someone just said there was a solar are. Does that mean
there will be an aurora tonight?"
In general, no. IF the are is facing the earth and IF it does
produce a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), the cloud of plasma
will take 2-4 days to reach the earth. Stay tuned to the
discussion to see if there is any chance auroral action may be
forthcoming in a few days.
• There will always be an active discussion underway in
the group if an aurora is expected.
• We also post to our AlertNOW Group when one is
actually sighted in progress, giving the location where
is is being viewed.
We suggest you may want to enable mobile/push
noti cations. https://www.facebook.com/groups/
266569700123864/
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“What causes an aurora?" A great basic video that shows
how the sun "works" and what makes an aurora.
This video will help you understand why we cannot predict that
there will be an Aurora on your holiday to Tasmania next year!
http://youtu.be/7Mz2laHjVoQ
• Tips for viewing an aurora
A northern-hemi-centric page for beginners who want to
know more about the science. https://
www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/tips-viewing-aurora
Because they are more concerned about damage to their
satellites and the grid (justly so) and are not chaser-oriented,
they still use kp index. And here is why kp isn’t helpful… from
Glendale app’s FAQ:
What's a Kp or K Index?

K is an average measure of how much geomagnetic disturbance there is at a

particular location in a 3-hour period.

Kp is an average of K readings from across the planet. Kp values are used for
global scienti c studies and have no practical use for aurora-hunters wishing to
see the lights anywhere in the world. There could be a major substorm in progress
in your country but other parts of the world are calm, so when averaged out the Kp
becomes very low. What is important for aurora-hunters is the actual value at
magnetometers close to their own location. To use an analogy, say the Kp was the
average temperature in every capital city in the world in a three hour period, then
what use would it be in nding out whether it is frosty in London at the moment?

Contrary to false information widely propagated on the internet, Kp does NOT

indicate which latitudes the aurora can be seen at.

Kp is NOT an indicator that works in the northern hemisphere but does not work
for the southern hemisphere. It does NOT work for ANY hemisphere.

You will very often see people posting photos of a fabulous aurora on social media
and saying 'it was only Kp 1'. They might as well say 'the FTSE index of share
prices was only 1000' or 'the price of oil was $100 a barrel'. Kp has equally no
relevance to aurora.

For these reasons any aurora apps, websites and FB groups that use Kp or K
values are totally unreliable and should be avoided. If you feel the need to monitor
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'plots' then the substorm strength indicator in Glendale App provides the most
accurate approximation to visible auroras anywhere in the world.

copyright ©Andy Stables http://aurora-alerts.uk all rights reserved

And an interesting le on using our our own BOM le:///Users/

Jack/Downloads/JeanneWorkshop-Aurorapresentation.pdff

"What causes aurora colour?"

http://pwg.gsfc.nasa.gov/polar/telecons/archive/PR_E-PO/
Aurora_ yer/aurora- yer_p2.doc.pdf"
“Will I see colour without a camera?" http://earthsky.org/
earth/will-you-see-colors-in-an-aurora
Also includes more on camera settings
Answer: Only if an aurora is exceptionally bright. For fainter
aurorae, some individuals see tints of colour while others see
monochrome.
• See Nadia’s discussion with three video versions of same
aurora night (b+w / low colour / camera colour )
https://www.facebook.com/groups/auroraaustralis/
permalink/900471206654430/

• This video explains what/how/why our eyes see di erently

compared to a camera image.
How human eyes see an aurora.
https://vimeo.com/astralisproductions/beneaththeaurora-
optics-and-the-aurora
"What camera settings should I use?"
https://www.facebook.com/groups/auroraaustralis/permalink/
1779260188775523/
"What about smartphone settings?" https://
www.facebook.com/groups/auroraaustralis/permalink/
5819048728129962/
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Would a hard copy be useful? These FAQ’s inspired a book,
The Aurora Chaser's Handbook which contains SO much
more.
Available online http://aurorachasersbook.com
Several aurora science chapters including subaroural forms
How to photograph an aurora by Katinka Smith,
Post-processing by Nick Monk
Plus many other contributors
53 photographers from 4 Australian states, both professional
and hobbyists.
“Are the northern and southern lights are di erent?”
One viewpoint
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/01/northern-and-
southern-lights-are-di erent-here-s-why
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