Observation Analysis

Adam YAU

SEHH2315 Survey Adjustment

5/2/2022 HONG KONG COMMUNITY COLLEGE 1

Population vs Sample
⚫ Population
• A population consists of all possible measurements that can be made of a
particular quantity.
• Often a population has an infinite number of data elements

⚫ Sample
• A sample is a subset of data selected from the population

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Data Analysis
⚫ Mean (𝑥)ҧ
• The average of the observations

σ𝑛𝑖 𝑥𝑖 𝑥ҧ = mean of observed value

𝑥ҧ = 𝑥 = observed value
𝑛 𝑛 = number of observations
⚫ Mode
• The most frequently occurring value

⚫ Median
• The midpoint of the data set (arranging the data in order)

⚫ Range
• Highest value – Lowest value

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Example

A data set with 50 readings

Determine:
1) Mean
2) Mode
3) Median
4) Range

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Solution

Re-arrange in ascending order

1) Mean
σ50
1 𝑥𝑖
𝑥ҧ = = 23.5
50
2) Mode = 23.8
3) Median
(23.4+23.5)/2 = 23.45
4) Range
26.1-20.1 = 6.0

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Variance (𝜎 2 )
Measure the average degree to which each number is different from
the mean
2 𝜀 =𝑥−𝑇
⚫ Population Variance (𝜎 )
𝑛 2 𝑥 = observed value
2
σ𝑖 (𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥)
ҧ
𝜎 = 𝑥ҧ = mean of observed value
𝑛 𝑛 = number of observations
⚫ Sample Variance (𝑆 2 )
• It is an unbiased estimate for the population variance
𝑣 = 𝑇෠ − 𝑥
𝑛 2 𝑥 = observed value
2
σ𝑖 ( 𝑥ҧ − 𝑥𝑖 )
𝑆 = 𝑥ҧ = mean of observed value
𝑛−1 𝑛 = number of observations

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Standard error (𝜎)
The square root of the population variance

𝜎 = standard deviation
σ𝑛𝑖 (𝑥𝑖 − 𝑥)ҧ 2 𝑥 = observed value
𝜎=± 𝑥ҧ = mean of observed value
𝑛 𝑛 = number of observations

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Standard Deviation (𝑆)
The square root of the sample variance

𝑆 = standard deviation
σ𝑛𝑖 (𝑥ҧ − 𝑥𝑖 )2 𝑥 = observed value
𝑆=± 𝑥ҧ = mean of observed value
𝑛−1 𝑛 = number of observations

Standard Deviation contains a unit

Since the standard error (𝜎) cannot be determined,
the standard deviation (𝑆) is a practical expression for
the precision of a sample set of data.

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Standard Deviation of the Mean (𝑆𝑥ҧ )
All observed values contain errors.
When the mean value is calculated from a sample set of measured
values which are randomly distributed,
the mean value will also be a random quantity and contains error.

𝑆 𝑆 = standard deviation
𝑆𝑥ҧ = ± 𝑛 = number of observations
𝑛

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 Random Error Theory
Adam YAU

SEHH2315 Survey Adjustment

5/2/2022 HONG KONG COMMUNITY COLLEGE 10

The Normal Distribution
The Normal distribution curve has the following features:
• Bell-shaped

• Symmetrical about mean (𝑥)ҧ

ഥ
𝒙
• Extend from −∞ to +∞

• Total area under the curve is 1

𝑓(𝑥)

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The Normal Distribution
The density function 𝑓(𝑥) of Normal Distribution

1 (𝑥−𝑥)ҧ 2 𝜎 = standard deviation

− 𝑥ҧ = mean value
𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑒 2𝜎2
𝜎 2𝜋 Constant value ഥ
𝒙
𝜋 = 3.14159…
𝑒 = 2.71828…
−∞ ≤ 𝑥 ≤ +∞
𝑓(𝑥)

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The Normal Distribution
The distribution function 𝐹(𝑥) of Normal Distribution
+∞
1 (𝑥−𝑥)ҧ 2
− 𝑑𝑥 ഥ
𝒙
𝐹(𝑥) = න 𝑒 2𝜎 2 =𝟏
−∞ 𝜎 2𝜋
𝜎 = standard deviation 𝐹(𝑥)
𝑥ҧ = mean value
Constant value
𝜋 = 3.14159…
𝑒 = 2.71828…
𝒙
−∞ +∞

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The Normal Distribution
Area under the curve represents the probability of occurrence
𝑥
1 (𝑥−𝑥)ҧ 2
− 2 𝑑𝑥 ഥ
𝒙
𝐹(𝑥) = න 𝑒 2𝜎
−∞ 𝜎 2𝜋
Solution:
𝐹(𝑡)
𝑃 𝑥 ≤ 𝑡 = 𝐹(𝑡)
𝑡
1 (𝑥−𝑥)ҧ 2
−
𝐹(𝑡) = න 𝑒 2𝜎2 𝒙
−∞ 𝜎 2𝜋 −∞ 𝑡 +∞

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The Normal Distribution
+∞
1 (𝑥−𝑥)ҧ 2
− 2 𝑑𝑥
𝐹(𝑥) = න 𝑒 2𝜎 The Peak
−∞ 𝜎 2𝜋
The Peak
1 𝐹(𝑥)
when 𝑥 = 𝑥ҧ
𝜎 2𝜋 Point of Infection Point of Infection

Point of Infection
1
±𝜎
𝜎 2𝜋 𝒙
ഥ−𝝈
𝒙 ഥ
𝒙 ഥ+𝝈
𝒙

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Standard Normal Equation
From the density function 𝑓(𝑥) 1 (𝑥−𝑥)ҧ 2
−
𝑓(𝑥) = 𝑒 2𝜎2
𝜎 2𝜋
Assume standard normal random variable 𝑍 𝑥 − 𝑥ҧ
and set 𝑥ҧ = 0, 𝜎 = 1 𝑍=
𝜎
Normal density function 𝑁 𝑧 of Normal Distribution
1 𝑍2
−
𝑁(𝑧) = 𝑒 2
2𝜋
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Standard Normal Equation
The normal distribution function 𝑁 𝑍 of Normal Distribution
+∞ 𝑍2
1 − 𝑑𝑧
𝑁(𝑍) = න 𝑒 2
−∞ 2𝜋 𝑧
1 𝑍2
𝑁(𝑍) = න 𝑒 − 2 𝑑𝑧
−∞ 2𝜋
Probability of z
𝑃 𝑍 ≤ 𝑧 = 𝑁(𝑍) 𝑁(𝑧) =
1 𝑍2
𝑒− 2
2𝜋
𝑧 𝑍2
1 − 𝑑𝑧
𝑁(𝑍) = න 𝑒 2
−∞ 2𝜋
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Probability between values
Determine the area (probability) between a and b
◦ The different in the areas between a and b respectively can be computed

𝑃 𝑎 < 𝑧 < 𝑏 = 𝑁 𝑏 − 𝑁(𝑎)

！REMARK！
Area under the curve = 1
z
a b
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Probability between values
If the bounds (a and b) are equal in magnitude but opposite in sign
◦ Let b be 𝑡, then a is −𝑡
The probability is 𝑃 −𝑡 < 𝑍 < 𝑡 = 𝑁 𝑡 − 𝑁(−𝑡)

Since 𝑃 𝑍 > 𝑡 = 𝑃 𝑍 < −𝑡

𝑃 𝑍 > 𝑡 = 1 − 𝑁(𝑡) = 𝑁(−𝑡)

𝑃 −𝑡 < 𝑍 < 𝑡 = 𝑁 𝑡 − (1 − 𝑁 𝑡 )
𝑃 −𝑡 < 𝑍 < 𝑡 = 2𝑁 𝑡 − 1
𝐑𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐬:
𝑃 −𝑡 < 𝑍 < 𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑛 𝑏𝑒 𝒘𝒓𝒊𝒕𝒕𝒆𝒏 𝒂𝒔 𝑷 |𝒁| < 𝒕 a
−𝒕 𝟎 b
𝒕

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 +∞ 𝑍2 +∞ 𝑍2
1 1
𝑁 𝑧 =න 𝑒 − 2 𝑑𝑧 = 𝑃[𝑍 ≤ 𝑧] 𝑁 𝑧 =න 𝑒 − 2 𝑑𝑧 = 𝑃[𝑍 ≤ 𝑧]
−∞ 2𝜋 −∞ 2𝜋
𝑧 𝑧
𝑧 𝑧

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Probability of the Standard Error
For standard normal distribution when 𝜎 = 1, hence
𝑃 −𝜎 < 𝑍 < 𝜎 = 𝑃 −1 < 𝑍 < 1
= 𝑁 1 − 𝑁(−1)
= 0.84134 − 0.15866
= 0.68268
= ~68.27%

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50% Probable Error (𝐸50 )
𝑃 −𝑡 < 𝑍 < 𝑡 = 2𝑁 𝑡 − 1 = 0.5
2𝑁 𝑡 = 1.5 𝑁 𝑡 = 0.75
From the table, the probability of 0.75 is between 0.67 and 0.68
𝑁 0.67 = 0.74857 𝑁 0.68 = 0.75175

Let t = 0.67 + ∆𝑡 , by linar interpolation method

∆𝑡 0.75 − 0.74857 0.00143
= = = 0.44970
0.68 − 0.67 0.75175 − 0.74857 0.00318
∆𝑡 = 0.01 × 0.4497 = 0.0045
𝑬𝟓𝟎 = 𝟎. 𝟔𝟕𝟒𝟓𝝈
𝑡 = 0.67 + 0.0045 = 0.6745
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95% Probable Error (𝐸95 )
𝑃 −𝑡 < 𝑍 < 𝑡 = 2𝑁 𝑡 − 1 = 0.95
2𝑁 𝑡 = 1.95 𝑁 𝑡 = 0.975
From the table, the probability of 0.975 is 1.96
𝑁 1.96 = 0.9500

𝑬𝟗𝟓 = 𝟏. 𝟗𝟔𝝈

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Things take home
Observation Analysis
⚫ Population vs Sample
⚫ Mean, Mode, Median, Range
⚫ Variance vs Standard Deviation

Random Error Theory

⚫ Normal Distribution
⚫ Area under Normal Distribution
⚫ Probable Error Computation

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