Indian ocean dipole movement

(68th BPSC)

Indian Ocean Dipole: ocean atmosphere interaction in tropical Indian ocean, causing
temperature differences in two sides of the Indian ocean. The IOD has three phases:
neutral, positive and negative.
Neutral IOD phase

• Normal flow of tropical easterly winds

• Water from pacific ocean accumulates near
Indonesia and Australia and distributed along
tropical Indian ocean
• Temperature close to normal
• Neutral impact on Indian monsoon
Positive IOD

• Weak westerly winds

• Very strong Easterly winds along the
equator allowing warm water to shift
towards Africa
• Changes in the winds also allow cool
water to rise up from the deep ocean in
the east.
• This sets up a temperature difference
across the tropical Indian Ocean with
cooler than normal water in the east and
warmer than normal water in the west.
• Good impact on Indian monsoon
• Increases moisture content capacity of
wind along western part of Indian ocean
• Heavy rainfall in western part
Negative IOD
• Westerly winds intensify along the equator
but easterly winds weakens allowing warmer
waters to concentrate near Australia.
• This sets up a temperature difference across
the tropical Indian Ocean, with warmer than
normal water in the east and cooler than
normal water in the west.
• Less then normal rainfall during monsoon for
India
• Year 2022 was the Negative IOD year hence
caused erraticity in rainfall
 Impact on food production

•
•Impact
.
• Fisheries : disrupt fisheries along the Indian coast, impacting the livelihoods of coastal
communities dependent on fishing.
•
Inflation : The prices of major Kharif crops such as rice and pulses are already at
elevated levels and a bad monsoon could affect the production of these commodities
putting upward pressure on food inflation. Poor rainfall could also deplete reservoir levels
which could have a bearing on Rabi crops (such as Wheat) as well
• .
Lower income : Damage in domestic agricultural production could also mean lower
income for rural households as about 60% of the rural population is still employed in the
agriculture sector. This could be detrimental to the rural demand which has been
struggling to witness any durable pickup.
•
GDP : According to Bloomberg Economics report, with disrupted monsoon El Niño can
trim almost half a percentage point off annual GDP growth in India, as agriculture which
accounts for over 18% of the country’s GDP along with other sectors such as FMCG, auto
(two-three wheelers and tractors), and agrochemicals could also feel the heat of muted
rural demand.
•
Energy demands : Reduced monsoon rainfall and altered weather patterns will impact
hydropower generation, which relies on sufficient water availability. Also increased
dependency on irrigation facilities such as diesel pumps, due to deficient monsoon will
hike the energy demands .
•
Tourism : The scorching weather and severe heat waves will adversely reduce the number
of foreign tourists visiting India as well as domestic visitors
Way forward :
● Providing agro-meteorological advisory services and forecasts to every district based on
different rainfall scenarios.
● The government should ensure enough buffer stock of essential food items such as wheat,
rice and pulses, to ensure food security.
● The procurement of wheat must be watched closely and in case of any shortfall, the option of
import should be kept open to fill the demand-supply gap. If there is a shortfall in rice
production due to below-normal monsoon, the export bans should be further extended to
ensure adequate domestic supplies.
● To compensate for the effect of increased atmospheric temperature, effective implementation
of methods to reduce global warming should be ensured.
● While policy interventions tend to manipulate demand, El Niño typically affect supply,
therefore Central banks are required to frame monetary policies that should maintain
demand-supply equilibrium.
● Government measures such as MSP, agri-credits, crop insurances and others must be
implemented to stabilize the economy.
• Promote sustainable farming-environmental friendly farming
• Water conservation –rain water harvesting-Tamilnadu has made compulsory for
each household,, same can be implemented at national level.
• Forecasting of weather system and dissemination of information must be
updated and interactive.
• CONCLUSION
The possibility of a below-normal monsoon hinges on a combination of several factors such
as the timing and intensity of El Nino and the strength of positive IOD. Also the spatial and
temporal distribution of rainfall will impact agricultural production. As the existing
macroeconomic scenario is experiencing elevated inflation and volatile commodity prices,
any shortfall in the production of essential food items could pose a threat to the Indian
economy. With the diversification of the rural economy towards non-farm sectors will
compensate the losses in the gamble of monsoon. However, the government should be
vigilant and prepare in advance to mitigate the harm caused by erratic monsoon.
South west monsoon is an important climatic characteristics of India which originate in
Indian ocean and enters the Indian land mass from south westerly direction. As these winds
approach the land, their south westerly direction is modified by relief and thermal low
pressure over northwest India. They bifurcate themselves in two branches. Arabian sea and
Bay of Bengal Branch.
On progression, Bay of Bengal branch gets deflected by Arakan Hills(Myanmar) and reaches
to Indian subcontinent. Again these branches bifurcates into two under the influence of the
Himalayas and the thermal low of northwestern India.
Its one branch move westward along Ganga plains . Since the direction of these monsoonal
wind is from eatesrn side , hence they are called as PURVAIYA in Bhojpur region and cause
rainfall.
 Influence on cultural ethos:
• Purvaiya is associated with bringing rainfall in Bhojpur region and this coincides with the Shrawan
maah( month of hindi calender).
• There are lots of significance of this sawan month in the cultural ethos of this region.
• Agriculture practices: sowing of kharif crop( rice), is associated with rainfall and this brings
festivity, togetherness, joy during sowing and transplanting the paddy seedlings. Since Bhojpur
region is an agriculture region and beginning of cropping season always plays an important role in
cultural setup in such regions which further enhance during monsoon.
• Cultural festivals and spiritual significance: teej, Shravan puja, somvari vrat, kanwar yatra to
worship Lord Shiva bring festivities and cultural togetherness . People generally avoid non
vegetarian foods during Sawan to maintain the holiness of the worship and festival practices.
• Naagpanchami: Fifth day of full moon fortnight(Shukla Paksha) also widely celebrated and teach
the lesson of environment and wildlife protection, Snakes are worshipped and fed with milk.
• RakshaBandhan: Full moon of Sawan is celebrated and marked as Rakshabandhan festival which
is to symbolize love and care between a brother and sister.
• Blessing of Lord Shiva is sought during Sawan month as beginning of rainfall is the symbol of
rebirth and renewal of life.

• Women and girls prefer wearing green dresses, sarees and green bangles to mark the greenery
present around which is significant during sawan month.
• Folk songs: Thumri, Kajri songs are sung .Banaras Gharana is famous for such classical and folk
songs. Folk artists such as, Malini Awasthi, Pt. Chhannulal Mishra, Girija Devi are famous artists
belong to these folk songs.
 Conclusion
• In summary, the ‘Purvaiya’ winds, while being a meteorological
phenomenon, have deeply influenced the cultural, agricultural, and
social aspects of the Bhojpur region, making an integral part of its
identity.