Lecture 6

SEE211
Energy, Climate Change and Sustainability
Recap
Ø We have seen the historical evolution of energy usage.
390 Chapter 7

100
APPROXIMATE SHARES OF PRIME MOVER

80
CAPACITIES (percent)

60

People
40
Animals
Waterwheels and Turbines
Windmills
20 Steam Engines
Steam Turbines
Internal Combustion Engines
0
2000 BCE 200 CE 500 CE 1200 1800 1900 1950
EGYPT ROME CHINA EUROPE

Energy
Figure 7.1 and Civilization: A History, Vaclav Smil Sustainable Energy, Serdar Celik
History of Energy
Transitions
So why we should be bothered?
Fossils

Ø Formation of fossil fuels: A very long

process over millions of years

• Buried photosynthetic organisms

o plants and tress on land à coal
o plankton in the oceans à oil and natural gas

• Process involved removal of carbon dioxide

from the atmosphere and the ocean

• Burial inhibited the movement of that carbon

through the carbon cycle.
Burning
Ø Putting the carbon back into the atmosphere as carbon dioxide
• At a much faster rate
• Several times faster natural processes

Ø Accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere

Ø Dissolution in the ocean à ocean acidification

• CO2 + H2O -> (H+) + (HCO3-)

Ø Accumulation in atmosphere: Warming

What happens when we burn fuel

Ø Release of greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) into the
atmosphere
• Intensification of the greenhouse effect (the re-radiation of heat in the atmosphere) à warming
• Residence time: decades to hundreds of years

Ø Pollutants: SOx, NOX, Particles, Soot à lung diseases.

Ø Airborne particles can increase the reflectivity of the atmosphere à slight cooling effect
Ø Snow and ice melting
Ø Acidity of rains and oceans
Ø Use of large amounts freshwater in their use
Anthropogenic GHGs
Ø Carbon dioxide has increased from fossil fuel use. Carbon dioxide is removed from the
atmosphere (or "sequestered") when it is absorbed by plants as part of the biological carbon cycle.
Deforestation releases CO2 and reduces its uptake by plants. Carbon dioxide is also released in
natural processes such as the decay of plant matter.
Ø Methane has increased as a result of human activities related to agriculture, natural gas distribution
and landfills. CH4 is also released from livestock, and natural processes that occur, for example, in
wetlands.
Ø Nitrous oxide is emitted by human activities such as fertilizer use and fossil fuel burning. Natural
processes in soils and the oceans also release N2O.
Ø Halocarbon gas concentrations have increased primarily due to human activities. Natural
processes are also a small source. Principal halocarbons include the chlorofluorocarbons (e.g.,
CFC-11 and CFC-12), which were used extensively as refrigeration agents and in other industrial
processes before their presence in the atmosphere was found to cause stratospheric ozone
depletion. The abundance of chlorofluorocarbon gases is decreasing as a result of international
regulations designed to protect the ozone layer.
Sinks of CO2
Sinks:
Forests are typically carbon sinks,
places that absorb more carbon than
they release. They continually take
carbon out of the atmosphere through
the process of photosynthesis.
The ocean also absorb a large amount
of carbon dioxide from the
atmosphere.
How long do greenhouse gases stay in the
atmosphere?
Ø Greenhouse gases can remain in the atmosphere for different amounts of
time, ranging from a few years to thousands of years.
Ø Long-lived greenhouse gases, for example, CO2, CH4 and N2O, are
chemically stable and persist in the atmosphere over time scales of a decade
to centuries or longer, so that their emission has a long-term influence on
climate. Because these gases are long lived, they become well mixed
throughout the atmosphere.
Ø Carbon dioxide does not have a specific lifetime because it is continuously
cycled between the atmosphere, oceans, land and biosphere and its net
removal from the atmosphere involves a range of processes with different
time scales.
Ø Short-lived gases (e.g., sulphur dioxide and carbon monoxide) are chemically
reactive and generally removed by natural oxidation processes in the
atmosphere, by removal at the surface or by washout in precipitation; their
concentrations are hence highly variable.

Reference: IPCC, 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.
Fossil fuel usage directly linked to CO2 emission

Source: ourworldindata.org
Fossil fuel usage directly linked to CO2 emission
India story is similar
Source and Sector Dependance
What is the concern?
Human influence has warmed the climate at a rate that is
unprecedented in last 2000 years

Ø Global surface temperature has

increased faster since 1970 than
in any other 50-year period over
at least the last 2000 years
Ø Temperatures during the most
recent decade (2011–2020)
exceed those of the most recent
multi-century warm period in
more than 100,000 years.

Reference: IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis
Global surface temperature has already warmed up by 1.1°C

Ø Global surface temperature was

around 1.1°C above 1850–1900
in 2011–2020
Ø Each of the last four decades has
been successively warmer than
any decade that preceded it
since 1850.

Reference: IPCC, 2023: AR6 Synthesis Report: Climate Change 2023

Many land regions are experience warming greater than the
global average
Ø Warming is generally higher over
land than over the ocean
Ø Global surface temperature was
1.1°C higher in 2011–2020 than
1850–1900, with larger increases
over land (1.59°C) than over the
ocean (0.88°C).
Ø Arctic and Antarctica warm more
than global surface temperature
Ø Over a fifth of the global population
live in regions that have already
experienced warming in at least one
season that is greater than 1.5°C.

Reference: IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis
 Grim predictions for Asia, Africa and South America,
Antarctica

https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/what-the-world-will-look-like-4degc-warmer/
Climate vs. Weather

Ø The word climate means some kind of average of the weather, say over 30 years or more.

Ø Weather is chaotic, which means that it cannot be forecast very far into the future.
Ø Weather models cannot reliably predict whether it will rain or be sunny on a particular day very far into
the future.

Ø Weather is chaotic, but the average is not chaotic and seems to be in some ways predictable.
Ø Climate models forecast the average rainfall of some location at some time of year.

Ø Human-induced climate changes are expected to be small compared with the variability of the weather.
Temperature in the coming century is projected to rise by a few degrees centigrade.
Ø This change is small compared with the temperature differences between say daytime and night time.
Projected Global Temperature Change

Ø Global warming is currently increasing

at 0.2C per decade due to past and
ongoing emissions
Ø Estimated warming is likely to reach
1.5C between 2030 and 2052 if it
continues to increase at the current
rate

Reference: IPCC, 2018: Global Warming of 1.5C