Tel: +256 414 251 798 Fax: +256 414 251 797 P.O.Box 7025, Head Office Plot 21/28, Port Bell Road - Luzia, Email: info@unma.go.ug Kampala- Uganda, Email exdir@unma.go.ug Website: www.unma.go.ug UGANDA NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL AUTHORITY Ref: SCF/MAM/2024 1% March, 2024 MARCH TO MAY 2024 SEASONAL RAINFALL OUTLOOK OVER UGANDA 4.0 INTRODUCTION Uganda generally experiences two major rainfall seasons mainly March-April-May (MAM), constituting the first season, and September-October-November-December (SOND) as the second season. However, regions in the northern sector of the country experiences a unimodal (single) rainfall season that runs from April up to November with a relaxation around June. 1.1 General Forecast Overall, during MAM 2024 the country is expected to experience near-normal (near average) to above-normal (enhanced) rainfall over several parts of the country. However, some areas of Southwestem, Eastern, parts of Central, and Lake Victoria basin are expected to receive above-normal (enhanced) rainfall. The onset of seasonal rains is expected to be established around early March in several parts of the southem sector of the country (Southwestern, Central, Westem Lake Victoria basin, and Eastem). It is expected to progress towards Northern and parts of the Northeastem areas of the country around mid-March. The onset is likely to be characterized by severe isolated thunderstorms associated with strong winds. lightning, and hailstorms over several parts of the country. After the onset, there is likely to be a disruption in the MAM rainfall by a dry spell around mid to late March. The spatial distribution of the expected seasonal rainfall is indicated in Figure 1. "Weather and Climate for al @ eeeeLareLeey FoR Maa OVER UOANDALHH 238) ‘MARCH TO MAY 224 RAINFALL OUTLOOK Figure 1: Seasonal climate outlook for March to May (MAM), 2024 (left). The Long Term Mean rainfall (LTM). March 2024 Rainfall Forecast April 2024 Rainfall Forecast SESEEE Bessas Seease Roan Tt ' i $8381 aoa . a May 2024 Rainfall Forecast 2. ‘oe (i ‘Seow rt ae eae : q . a ages tgnune aueae: Figure 2: Monthly breakdown of the Seasonal climate outlook for March to May (MAM), 2024 eS CamScanner 2300mm 500mm a Figure 3: Probabilities of oxceedance for MAM 2024 soasonal climate outlook. z S8ane av > cezeSE SIRES es8e * 2.0 DETAILED FORECAST The physical conditions that are likely to influence the rainfall outlook for MAM 2024 over Uganda include: - Currently the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is in a neutral state, while the El-Nino episode is weakening and tending to a neutral state. The combination of the two conditions is most likely to have less influence over the MAM Seasonal Rainfall performance. The intra-seasonal variation of Madden Julian Oscillations (MJO) is likely to influence the spatial distribution of the MAM rainfall season at different time scales. The positioning and orientation of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the country is expected to significantly influence this season's rainfall patterns, In the event of tropical cyclones occurring over the southwestern Indian Ocean, there will be a likelihood of disruption of the MAM rainfall. The local and regional features are likely to play a significant role in the MAM rainfall distribution. Based on the above drivers, Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) has come up with a detailed MAM 2024 seasonal rainfall outlook as given below: - 2.1 Western Uganda 2.4.4 South Western (Kisoro, Kabale, Rubanda, Rukiga, Rwampara, Kazo, Rukungiri, Kanungu, Ntungamo, Mbarara, Kiruhura, Isingiro, Ibanda, Kitagwenda, Bushenyi, Buhweju, Mitooma, Sheema, Rubirizi and Kasese districts). This region has been experiencing thundershowers depicting the onset of the seasonal rainfall. The peak of the rains is expected around late March to mid-April with a CamScanner 3cessation around late May to early June. Overall, this region is expected to receive above-normal (enhanced) rainfall. 2.1.2 Mid-Western (Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kabarole, Kyenjojo, Kyegegwa, Kamwenge, Kibale, Kikuube, Bunyangabu, Kakumiro, Kagadi, Hoima, Buliisa, Masindi districts) Mid-Western region has been experiencing isolated thundershowers signifying the onset of seasonal rains. The peak period is expected around mid-April. Cessation of the seasonal rains is expected around late May to early June. Overall, there is a likelihood for the region to experience near-normal (closer to average) rainfall tending to above-normal (enhanced) rainfall. 2.2 Central Region, Lake Victoria Region and Eastern Uganda 2.2.1 Western areas of Central region (Nakasongola, Luwero, Kyankwanzi, Kakumiro, Kasanda, Nakaseke, Kiboga, Mubende, Sembabule and Lyantonde districts). Several parts of this region have been experiencing isolated light showers indicating the onset of seasonal rainfall. The peak rain is expected around mid-April with cessation around early June. Overall, there is a high chance of near-normal (closer to average) rainfall tending to above-normal (enhanced) rainfall over this region, 2.2.2 Central and Western Lake Victoria region (Kalangala, Kampala, Wakiso, Masaka, Lwengo, Mpigi, Butambala, Kalungu, Kyotera, Rakai, Bukomansimbi, Gomba, and Mityana districts) Currently, most areas in this region are receiving showers and thunderstorms indicating the onset of the seasonal rains which is expected to get established in early March with a peak around mid-April. the cessation around early June. Overall, there are higher chances for this region to receive above-normal (enhanced) rainfall. 2.2.3 Eastern areas of Central region (Mukono, Buikwe, Kayunga, Buvuma districts) Most areas in this region are currently receiving showers and thunderstorms signifying the onset of the seasonal rains which is expected to get established in early March with a peak around mid-April, with cessation around early June, Overall, there are higher chances for this region to receive near-normal (closer to average) rainfall with slight tendency to above-normal (enhanced) rainfall. 2.24 Eastern Lake Victoria and Southeastern (Jinja, Mayuge, Kamuli, iganga, Bugiri, Namayingo, Luuka, Namutumba, Buyende, Kaliro, Busia and Tororo districts) This region is experiencing occasional showers and thunderstorms which are expected to give way to the onset of the seasonal rains around early March, with the peak around mid-April. The cessation is expected to occur around early June. Overall, eS CamScanner 4this region has a high chance of receiving near-normal (closer to average) rainfall to above-normal (enhanced) rainfall. 2.2.5 Central Eastern (Pallisa, Budaka, Kibuku, Butebo, Mbale, Sironko, Manafwa, Namisindwa, Bududa, Kapchorwa, Kumi, Kalaki, Kaberamaido, Soroti, Serere, Butaleja, Bulambuli, Kween, Bukwo, Bukedea and Ngora districts) Most areas have been experiencing dry conditions with a few areas receiving isolated ‘showers. The onset for this region is expected around early to mid-March and the peak is expected around mid to late April. Relaxation of rainfall is expected around early June. Overall, there is a high likelihood of this region receiving near-normal (closer to average) in low lying areas to above-normal (enhanced) rainfall over the mountainous areas. North Eastern Region (Katakwi, Amuria, Moroto, Kotido, Nakapiripirit, Abim, Napak, Kapelebyong, Nabilatuk, Karenga, Amudat and Kaabong districts) The region is currently experiencing dry conditions punctuated with light isolated showers. The onset of seasonal rain is expected around mid to late March reaching peak level around early May. Thereafter, relaxation is expected around early to mid- June. Overall, there is high chance for this region to receive above-normal (enhanced) rainfall during the forecast period 2.3 Northern Region 2.3.1 North Western (Arua, Maracha, Koboko, Terego, Yumbe, Obongi, Moyo, Adj |i, Madi Okollo, Zombo, Nebbi and Pakwach districts) This region has been experiencing dry conditions, with a few areas receiving light showers signifying the onset of the seasonal rain. The peak of the seasonal rain is expected to occur around late April to early May. Moderate relaxation of rains is expected around early June. Overall, this region is likely to receive near normal (closer to average) with a slight tendency to above-normal (enhanced) rainfall during the forecast period. 2.3.2 Central Northern Parts (Gulu, Omoro, Lamwo, Nwoya, Amuru, Oyam and Kiryandongo) districts Most parts of this region have been experiencing dry conditions, punctuated with showers and thunderstorms over some places. The onset of the seasonal rains is likely to get established by mid-March with the peak around late April to early May. A moderate relaxation of the rains is likely to occur around early June. Overall, this region is expected to receive near normal (closer to average) with a tendency to above- normal (enhanced) rainfall during the forecast period. eS CamScanner2.3.3 Southeastern areas of Northern region (Dokolo, Amolatar, Alebtong, Lira, Kole, Otuke, Pader, Kitgum, Apac, and Agago) districts Currently, most parts of this region are experiencing dry conditions, punctuated with showers and thunderstorms over some places. The onset of the seasonal rains is likely to get established by mid-March with the peak around late April to early May. A moderate relaxation of the rains is likely to occur around early June. Overall, this region is expected to receive near normal (closer to average) with a tendency to above- normal (enhanced) rainfall during the forecast period. 3.0 THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST There is a high chance - the rainfall forecast is likely to perform from near normal to above normal, and this is likely to affect economic activities especially agricultural production and food security. It should be noted that areas expected to receive near-normal rainfall does not mean that they will receive little rainfall. The implication of this is that these areas will receive rainfall within the average range of their long term mean and rainfall is expected to adequately support the normal socio-economic activities. Itis also worth noting that localized episodic flash flood events may occur in areas that are expected to receive near normal rainfall as a result of isolated heavy downpours. Similarly, in localized areas expected to receive above-normal rainfall, poor rainfall distribution may as welll occur. 3.0 ADVISORIES TO DIFFERENT SECTORS: 3.4 AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY SECTOR The weather forecast for March-April and May has predicted near normal and above normal rains for different parts of the country. The predicted rainfall may bring both positive and negative impacts in different parts of the country Potential positive impacts + Increased fish breeding in lakes and swamps resulting in increase in fish production; + High soil moisture resulting in increased crop yield and forage for livestock, Potential negative impacts + Increased water runoff resulting in loss of fertile topsoil through erosion and leaching; + Flooding and landslides in prone areas — including sub-regions of Karamoja, South Wester Uganda and Mt Elgon. This may result in washing away crops, loss of animals and waterlogging; eS CamScanner+ High incidence of pests, vectors and diseases (fungal diseases, invasive weeds and pests, worms, ticks, tsetse and other biting flies); + Siltation and nutrient loading in water bodies which may result in fish-kills, increased infestations by invasive aquatic weeds and reduction of water volume in valley dams; + Destruction of infrastructure (roads, landing sites, cattle handling facilities, fish cages etc). Likely to affect marketing and post-harvest handling of produce. In order to mitigate the negative impacts and maximise opportunities from the positive impacts, the public is advised as follows; Advisories to fishermen and fish farmers Fish farmers + Farmers should avoid constructing ponds in flood prone areas; + Dykes for ponds constructed in flood prone areas should be raised (At least twice higher than the normal-0.5m) to prevent flooding and fish escape; + Farmers are advised to stock their ponds; + Farmers are advised to prepare for proper preservation and value addition of their products for increased sheff life and income. Fishers + Fishermen should avoid fishing in swamps and designated breeding areas to prevent catching breeding and immature fish; + Fishermen should monitor hotspots of invasive aquatic weed infestations for early removal; + Fishermen should reduce fishing during rainy days but use person protective equipment (life jackets) if they must fish; + Fishermen and communities around water bodies should preserve or restore buffer zones and wetlands; + Fisherfolks are advised to prepare for utilization of artisanal preservation and processing of their products for increased shef life and income. Advisories to Livestock farmers + Livestock shades should be constructed on higher ground especially for farmers practicing intensive production; + Farmers practicing extensive production should seek alternative feedinglgrazing measures (Adopt stall feeding); + Prepare to conserve excess feed into silage and Hay; + Beehives should be located on raised platforms and on dry ground; eS CamScanner+ Strategically deworm before or at onset of rain. Increase frequency of spraying against ticks, tsetse and biting flies, and practice strategic vaccination on the onset of rains; + Farmers are advised to prepare for appropriate preservation and processing of their products for increased shelf life and income. Advisories to crop farmers + Farmers should practice sustainable soil and water conservation measures e.g constructing and maintaining drainages, contours, Terraces, plant trees and cover crops to reduce effects of runoff; + Plant hybrid crops to utilize the expected high moisture; + Farmers practice integrated pest and disease management -increased active surveillance, monitoring and control; + Invest in water harvesting and conservation technologies- valley dams, tanks, farm ponds, Water reservoirs; + Prepare to process crop outputs. Drying seeds, fruit and vegetables, Milling into powder, fermentation into alcohol and wine; + Farmers source high yielding and high breed seed; + In case of extended dry spells can practice water conservation practices e.g Mulching. Crosscutting advisory * Farmers are advised to prepare for proper preservation and value addition of their products for increased sheff life and income; + Farmers are advised to explore local markets notably, for perishable products; In areas where flooding is extensive, farmers should prepare to evacuate to safe areas; Farmers are advised to secure seed/stock and other inputs from certified dealers; + Farmers are advised to adhere to guidelines for safe use and disposal of agrochemicals. Water and Energy Sector i) _ Implications (positive) «Enough water supplies for various use (domestic, industries, wildlife etc.); * Enough water for power generation on river systems; ‘* Increased groundwater recharge in parts of south west, eastern, and Karamoja. ii) Advisories * Encourage water harvesting such as rainwater harvesting and construction of valley tanks and dams. eS CamScanner 83.3 iii) iv) Implications (Negative) + Expect rise of water levels in the Lakes Victoria and Albert; * Increased flooding along the shorelines of lakes Victoria, Albert, George and Kyoga; ‘* Possible movement of floating istands or weeds in Lake Victoria; ‘* Increased stream flow leading to riverine flooding in the basins of Albert, Albert Nile, Aswa, Victoria Nile and Edward; ‘+ Potential landslides in the Elgon region; ‘+ Increased sedimentation in the Victoria, Albert, Kyoga and Aswa basins; © Deterioration of water quality (both surface and groundwater) which may lead to water related diseases: * Possible damage to road infrastructure and buildings. Advisories * Intensify monitoring of water resources (both quantity and quality); * Enhance early warning; «Improve management of the Lakes depicting rise in water levels; * Intensify monitoring the movement of floating islands or weeds in Victoria Basin; * Raise awareness on sanitation and to persons likely to be affected by the floods; * Resettlement of the communities around Elgon region; * Desilting of valley tanks and dams in the Aswa basin and trenches in the urban areas; * Demarcate buffer zones; Stabilize river or reservoir banks by use of sand bags and gabions; © Encourage soil and water conservation measures to reduce erosion and ‘surface water runoff; ‘+ Open drainages channels or culverts along the roads; ‘* Intensify dam safety monitoring. Disaster Risk Management Sector Areas expected to receive Above Normal Raii Potential hazards Flash floods in Karamoja and Teso subregions, Kasese, Bundibugyo, Ntoroko, Kamwenge, Butaleja districts; Landslides in some highland areas such as in the districts of Manafwa, Bududa, Namisindwa, Bulambuli, Sironko, Kabale, Rubanda, Kisoro, Rukiga; Lightning and thunderstorms most areas like in districts of Kasese, Alebtong, Bushenyi, Ntungamo Hailstorms in most areas such as Isingiro district; Strong winds. eS CamScanner 9Expected Impacts Damage to infrastructure (roads, bridges, schools, energy and communication transmission lines, shelter etc.); Water logging in the low lying areas and resulting to damages in crop fields. Loss of lives (human and livestock); Internal displacements; Disease outbreaks (malaria, cholera, typhoid, dysentery); Disruption to social services (education, markets and trade, health); Loss of livelihoods especially crops and property; Post-harvest losses. Advisories Encourage the farmers to avoid gardening near river banks and wetlands; Desitt drainage channels especially in urban areas, valley dams and rivers e.g. River Nyamwamba; Move from the steep areas to safer areas; Put contour bands, terraces and mulches gardens; Children should avoid playing in open grounds especially when it is raining: Avoid taking shelter under tress when it is raining; Districts and sectors should update contingency and preparedness plans in line with expected hazards; Carry out disease surveillance; Preposition essential response items (food and non-food); Rehabilitation of vulnerable and degraded infrastructure; The public is encouraged to access and adhere to early warning messages from credible sources often disseminated in print and electronic media; The community is encouraged to carryout water harvesting for household and agriculture use; Conduct community sensitization and awareness creation on potential effects of the forecast; Report any disaster incidents to the National Emergency Coordination and Operation Centre (NECOC) at the office of the Prime Minister through Toll free line 0800177777. Areas Expected to receive Near Normal Rainfall Potential hazards Floods in Buyende, Nakasongola, Apac; Hailstorms in Kagadi, Kikuube; Epidemics e.g. cholera and malaria; Lightning in Koboko, Yumbe, Nakaseke. a CamScanner 103.4 Expected Impacts see Damage to infrastructure (roads, bridges, schools, shelter etc.); Water logging in the low lying areas and resulting to damages in crop fields. Loss of lives (human and livestock); Internal displacements; Disease outbreaks (malaria, cholera, typhoid, dysentery); Disruption to social services (education, markets and trade, health); Loss of livelihoods especially crops and property; Post-harvest losses. Advisories ‘Communities need to be aware of the possible occurrence of flash floods; Kampala and other urban centers are advised to open up drainage channels to avoid flash floods; Disease surveillance especially for epidemics; Clear bushes and drains around homesteads to mitigate outbreaks of malaria; Follow early waming messages disseminated by official sources via radio, Television, newspapers and social media; The community is encouraged to carryout water harvesting for household and agriculture use; ‘Conduct community sensitization and awareness creation on potential effects of the forecast; Report any disaster incidents to the National Emergency Coordination and Operation Centre (NECOC) at the office of the Prime Minister through Toll free line 0800177777; Children should avoid playing in open grounds especially when it is raining; Avoid taking shelter under tress when it is raining; Districts and sectors should update contingency and preparedness plans in line with expected hazards. Health and Nutrition Sector The general potential positive impacts As the country experiences near normal to above normal rainfall in MAM season, there is likelihood of positive and negative impacts. The positive impacts include; Improved hygiene due to availability of water; Improved nutrition due to increased food production; Increased family income, hence improved affordability to healthcare services. eS CamScanner uwThe general potential negative Impacts include; * Increased disease outbreak; Water bore e.g Cholera, vector borne e.g Malaria, increased respiratory infections like Asthma, and zoonotic diseases due to increased contact with animals; Flooding is also likely to occur which may lead to disruption of health service delivery, decreased contact with health facilities by communities, Injury or drowning and psychosocial challenges; Malnutrition due to food shortage as a result of destruction of crops; Increased school dropout especially females who are under their menstrual cycles; Domestic violence; Disability such as loss of some sections of the body, and fractured limbs; ‘* Death do to impacts of weather such as floods, lightening and Severe acute malnutrition (SAM). Near normal to above normal; West Nile, Central Northern, Mid-Western, Central, Eastern Lowlands, Western Kyoga region, Western and Central Lake Victoria basin regions Areas with near normal rainfall are likely to experience; + Increased breeding of vectors that transmit diseases like Mosquitoes; * Some areas like Apac, Nakasongola may experience flooding which may increase the risk of water borne diseases outbreak, destruction of settlements that may lead to homeless families. Advisories * The district health teams are advised to continuously sensitize communities on disease control measures like sleeping under the mosquito nets and minimize breeding sites for mosquitoes by clearing bushes near homes, emptying empty containers near homes to control malaria; * Communities are advised to use safe water to prevent water bome diseases such as typhoid; + Communities advised to have balanced diet to curb malnutrition especially to children 0-5 years; * Districts are advised to intensify their efforts on disease surveillance to detect disease outbreak early and emergence response to treat the affected populations; «Activation of district rapid response teams to quickly respond to likely public health emergencies; ‘+ Health education on good hygiene practices like proper human waste disposal, provision and utilization of WASH facilities to avoid diarrheal diseases such as cholera and dysentery; « Districts are advised to stock adequate essential medicines and other health Supplies; eS CamScanner 12* Districts are advised to equip community health workers with essential medicines to treat vulnerable populations like children 0- 5 years; * Provision of psychosocial support to affected population most especially those who have lost their food produce and their dear ones due to floods, landslides and lightening; * Provision and installation of systems to curb the climate impacts such as lightning arrestors and other warning signals; * Providing regular updates on weather and climate through created platforms such as whats up groups, websites and newspapers; * Intensify health related research. Above normal Karamoja, Mt. Elgon, Bukedi, South Western, Mt Rwenzori and Eastern L. Victoria basin regions. + Karamoja, Bukedi & Rwenzori are likely to experience flooding due to above normal rain fall. The likely impacts include; * Floods include; Disruption in health service delivery, Disease outbreak (Water borne, Vector bore and zoonotic diseases); + Destruction of food crops leading to reduced food security. Advisories * The district health teams are advised to continuously sensitize communities on disease control measures like sleeping under the mosquito nets and minimize breeding sites for mosquitoes by clearing bushes near homes, emptying empty containers near homes to control materia; * Communities are advised to use safe water to prevent water borne diseases such as typhoid; « Communities advised to have balanced diet to curb malnutrition especially to children 0-5 years; * Districts are advised to intensify their efforts on disease surveillance to detect disease outbreak early and emergence response to treat the affected populations; Activation of district rapid response teams to quickly respond to likely public health emergencies; Health education on good hygiene practices like proper human waste disposal, provision and utilization of WASH facilities to avoid diarrheal diseases such as cholera and dysentery; * Districts are advised to stock adequate essential medicines and other health Supplies « Districts are advised to equip community health workers with essential medicines to treat vulnerable populations like children 0- 5 years; eS CamScanner 2B‘+ Provision of psychosocial support to affected population most especially those who have lost their food produce and their dear ones due to floods, landslides and lightening; ‘+ Identify relevant IPs who can provide relief to affected communities e.g. OPM, UNHCR, Uganda Red Cross Society and World Food Program; + Intensify health related research. CONCLUSION The predicted rains require action in sufficient time and in an appropriate manner so as to take advantage of the information. This forecast should be used for planning in all rain-fed economic activities to improve economic welfare and livelihoods for all our communities in their localities. Uganda National Meteorological Authority will continue to monitor the evolution of relevant weather systems and issue appropriate rainfall alerts, updates, and advisories to the users regularly. This seasonal forecast should be used together with other forecasts such as daily, decadal, and monthly updates. Bob Alex’ ing, PhD. AG. EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR 14