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    This document discusses qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches. It provides examples of when each approach is most appropriate and describes their key differences. Qualitative forecasting relies on expert judgement and is best for new products, emerging markets, or uncertain situations with limited historical data. Quantitative forecasting uses past data patterns and models, and works well for stable industries with reliable historical information. For forecasting earthquake relief needs, a qualitative approach would be more suitable as earthquakes are unpredictable and impacts vary locally. Qualitative methods allow for flexible expert inputs to adjust forecasts quickly as situations change. The document then contrasts weighted moving averages and exponential smoothing methods. Weighted averages assign fixed historical weights while exponential smoothing adapts weights over

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    This document discusses qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches. It provides examples of when each approach is most appropriate and describes their key differences. Qualitative forecasting relies on expert judgement and is best for new products, emerging markets, or uncertain situations with limited historical data. Quantitative forecasting uses past data patterns and models, and works well for stable industries with reliable historical information. For forecasting earthquake relief needs, a qualitative approach would be more suitable as earthquakes are unpredictable and impacts vary locally. Qualitative methods allow for flexible expert inputs to adjust forecasts quickly as situations change. The document then contrasts weighted moving averages and exponential smoothing methods. Weighted averages assign fixed historical weights while exponential smoothing adapts weights over

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    4 views10 pages

    Chapter 2 - Group 5 - CC01

    Uploaded by

    Khuê Nguyễn
    This document discusses qualitative and quantitative forecasting approaches. It provides examples of when each approach is most appropriate and describes their key differences. Qualitative forecasting relies on expert judgement and is best for new products, emerging markets, or uncertain situations with limited historical data. Quantitative forecasting uses past data patterns and models, and works well for stable industries with reliable historical information. For forecasting earthquake relief needs, a qualitative approach would be more suitable as earthquakes are unpredictable and impacts vary locally. Qualitative methods allow for flexible expert inputs to adjust forecasts quickly as situations change. The document then contrasts weighted moving averages and exponential smoothing methods. Weighted averages assign fixed historical weights while exponential smoothing adapts weights over

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    of 10

    Forecasting

    CHAPTER 2

    NHÓM 2
    A qualitative forecasting model

    1. New Products or Services

    2. Rapidly Changing Markets

    3. Long-Term Strategic Planning

    4. When Detailed Information is Unavailable

    5. Scenario Analysis
    The two general
    forecasting approaches
    Description: Relies on expert judgment and opinions for forecasting,
    often used when historical data is scarce or unreliable.
    Methods: Market research, Delphi method, panel consensus, scenario
    Qualitative Forecasting:
    building, market surveys.
    Use Cases: New products, emerging markets, uncertain situations.

    Description: Relies on historical data and mathematical models,


    assuming past patterns continue into the future.
    Methods: Time series analysis, regression analysis, econometric
    Quantitative Forecasting models, machine learning algorithms.
    Use Cases: Industries with reliable historical data, such as finance,
    supply chain management, sales forecasting.
    Which type of forecast do
    you think is the most
    appropriate: qualitative or
    quantitative? Why?

    Qualitative forecast would likely


    be more appropriate
    Reasoning: Earthquakes are unpredictable events with varying
    impacts on communities.
    Expert Insight: Qualitative methods allow for expert judgment,
    on-the-ground assessments, and inputs from local authorities
    and humanitarian organizations.
    Adaptability: Qualitative approaches are flexible and can
    quickly adjust to changing circumstances and emerging needs
    in the aftermath of a disaster.
    Is collaborative planning, forecasting, and
    replenish­ment (CPFR) applicable in this case?

    => In the immediate aftermath of an earthquake,


    Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and
    Replenishment (CPFR) may not apply directly to
    forecasting relief aid needs.

    However, it could become valuable in later


    phases:
    Coordination with Relief Organizations.
    Logistics and Distribution
    Rebuilding Efforts
    Long-Term Planning
    Moving Averages Weighted Moving Averages Exponential Smoothing

    Issue with Trends: Exponential


    Issue with Trends: Moving Issue with Trends: While
    smoothing places more
    averages give equal weight to all weighted moving averages assign
    weight on recent data points,
    data points within the window, varying weights to different data
    but it still considers all past
    which can mask underlying points, they still emphasize
    data to some extent.
    trends. historical values over recent ones.
    Effect: This method reacts
    Effect: As the average of past Effect: If the trend changes, the
    more quickly to recent
    data is taken, it lags behind the weighted moving average may
    changes compared to simple
    actual trend, making it less not quickly reflect this change
    moving averages but can still
    responsive to changes in the due to the influence of historical
    lag behind abrupt or sustained
    trend direction. data with higher weights.
    trend shifts.
    The basic difference between a weighted
    moving aver­age and exponential smoothing
    A weighted moving aver­age Exponential smoothing

    Gives fixed weights to historical data. Each data point has a Adapts the weight assigned to historical data based on the
    predetermined weight that does not change over time. importance of the most recent observation. Older data points
    have exponentially decreasing weights.
    Weighted Moving Average:
    Exponential Smoothing

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