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CBRE Vietnam Market Outlook 2024 - EN
CBRE Vietnam Market Outlook 2024 - EN
Q4 2023
VIETNAM
CONTENTS
Industrial
Market
Tier 1 market
Hanoi, Hai Phong, Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hung Yen
South: HCMC, Dong Nai, Binh Duong, Long An
Industrial Land Sector Thrives as Tenants Continue
VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET
Expanding Operations in Vietnam
Southern Tier-1 plus: US$ 174 per sqm
Northern Tier-1: US$ 132 per sqm Southern Tier-1: US$ 189 per sqm Southern Tier-2
300
remaining terms
US$/sqm/
200
100
0
Bac Ninh Hai Phong Hung Yen Hai Duong Binh Duong Dong Nai Long An BR-VT Tay Ninh Binh Phuoc
Hectare
1,200 80% 1,200 80%
900 60% 900 60%
600 40% 600 40%
300 20% 300 20%
- 0% 0 0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
NORTH TIER 1 RBF ▲ 3.9% y-o-y SOUTH TIER 1 RBF ▲ 2.3% y-o-y
RBW ▲ 0.1% y-o-y RBW ▲ 4.7% y-o-y
US$/sqm/month
US$/sqm/month
900 4.5 900 4.5
Stronger rental growth due to healthy absorption
600 and openings of projects in good locations 4.0 600 4.0
- 3.0 0 3.0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023
RBF - New supply RBW(*) - New supply RBF - Rents RBW(*) - Rents
Note: (*): Excluding Service Warehouse (**) Asking rents do not include incentives
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023.
sqm
600,000 60% 600,000 60%
sqm
- 0% 0 0%
2020 2021 2022 H1 2023 H2 2023 2020 2021 2022 H1 2023 H2 2023
RBF - Net Absorption RBW - Net Absorption RBF - Occupancy rates RBW - Occupancy rates
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2023
RBW excludes service warehouse
Vietnam China
Singapore 17% Vietnam
21% 21%
USA 33%
5% USA
5% China
2023 Japan
NORTH 7%
2022 15% Denmark 9%
Taiwan
Korea
10% 11% Hong Kong
10% 11% Hong Kong 13%
13% Others
Other
11% USA
18% 16%
26% Vietnam
China
7%
13% Japan
SOUTH 4%
7%
2022
43% 5%
2023
Germany
4% 8% 10% Singapore
7% Korea
11% 10%
Other
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023 7
More diversified demand supports positive performance across regions and product types
NORTHERN CITIES SOUTHERN CITIES
Type Nationality Industry Size TYPE Nationality Industry Size
AND PROVINCES AND PROVINCES
Bac Ninh China Electronics 62.7ha Binh Phuoc China Automotive components 46ha
Bac Giang Taiwan Electronics 45.0ha Long An Vietnam Garment 36ha
Quang Ninh Taiwan Automobiles 35.0 ha Dong Nai Japan Mechanical 26ha
Industrial
Hai Duong Land China Electronics 22.6ha BR-VT Industrial Korea Chemical 25ha
Long An Land Vietnam - US WH & RBF Developer 20ha
Nam Dinh Taiwan Electronics 22.5ha
Binh Duong China WH Developer 20ha
Hai Phong Germany Nonwoven materials 19.0 ha
Dong Nai Singapore WH & RBF Developer 16.4ha
Thai Nguyen China Flooring 37,000 sqm
Dong Nai China plastics 15ha
Hai Phong China Plastics/Flooring 35,000 sqm
Dong Nai China Electronics 20,000 sqm
Hung Yen Chinese Electronic Vehicles 29,000 sqm
Dong Nai Germany Mechanical & Electronics 14,000 sqm
Ha Nam China Electronics 28,000 sqm Pharmaceutical and medical
Long An Korea 10,000 sqm
Quang Ninh RBF China Automobiles 20,000 sqm RBF equipment
Binh Duong China Magnetics 6,000 sqm
Quang Ninh China Flooring 19,000 sqm
BR-VT Vietnam Packaging 5,800 sqm
Thai Nguyen China Flooring 18,000 sqm
Dong Nai ThaiLand Garment 5,000 sqm
Bac Ninh Taiwan Electronics 15,000 sqm
HCMC Vietnam Logistics 26,000 sqm
Hai Duong China Electronics 15,000 sqm
Dong Nai USA Logistics 20,000 sqm
Bac Ninh Singapore E-commerce 60,000 sqm
Long An France Manufacturer 15,800 sqm
Hai Phong China 3PL 36,000 sqm
Long An RBW France Manufacturer 13,000 sqm
Hai Phong RBW Vietnam Automobile 20,000 sqm Binh Duong Vietnam Retail 12,700 sqm
Bac Ninh Korea F&B 20,000 sqm Long An Singapore E commerce 10,185 sqm
Bac Ninh Confidential E-commerce 18,000 sqm Long An Vietnam Logistics 10,000 sqm
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 8
Tier-1 markets
To be completed in 2026 Tier-2 markets
Bien Hoa Vung Tau Expressway
To be completed in 2025
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Source: Cafeland, VnExpress, CBRE Research, Q4 2023 9
VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET Industrial Land, Forecasted New Supply and Rental Rates
US$/sqm/remaining terms
albeit at a
Industrial land (ha)
US$/sqm/remaining term
Industrial land (ha)
2,000 200 2,000 200
moderate pace 1,500 150
1,500 150
500 50 500 50
- 0 0 0
2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
Tier 1 - New Supply Tier 2 - New Supply Tier 1 - Average asking rents Tier 2 - Average asking rents
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023.
US$/sqm/month
strong in ready-built
US$/sqm/month
500 5.5 500 5.5
facilities segment 400 5.0 400 5.0
South 8 16% 10 25% RBF - New supply RBW - New supply RBF - Average Asking Rent RBW - Average Asking Rent
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023
Office
Market
VIETNAM OFFICE MARKET
OFFICE NEW SUPPLY
domination of
(OfficeHaus, The Hallmark, The Mett, The Nexus, VPBank Saigon Tower, The Waterfront)
Thousands sqm
120 150
100
120
80
90
60
60
40
20 30
0 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Grade A - New supply Grade B - New supply Grade A - New Supply Grade B - New Supply
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023. 13
VIETNAM OFFICE MARKET OFFICE NET ABSORPTION
150
A tale of two
88% from Grade A
Thousands sqm
New supply
100
cities: 50
How to (50)
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 H1 2023 H2 2023
USD/sqm/month
USD/sqm/month
$- 0% $0 0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Flight-to- HANOI
quality 100%
80%
Tenant Industry Current office Leasing size
Relocation:
(sqm)
60% Finance/Banking Capital Place Relocation from a 2,400 sqm
Main leasing 40% /Insurance
Finance/Banking
Grade B in Midtown
Lancaster Luminaire - Relocation 1,500 sqm
purpose for
20%
/Insurance from a Grade B in Midtown
0%
both Hanoi Expansion
2019 2020
New lease
2021
Relocation
2022
Renewal
2023
Contraction
Logistics Capital Place Relocation from a
Grade B in Midtown
1,200 sqm
and HCMC
HCMC
100%
Tenant Industry Current office Leasing size
80% (sqm)
60% Finance/Banking/ The Mett Relocation from 9,000 sqm
40% Insurance Grade B offices in D1
Workspace Education
Retail/Trade/E-commerce
remain the Services
Others
driving motives 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Finance/Banking/Insurance
Manufacturing
Life Sciences/Healthcare/Pharma
Professional Services HCMC
Retail/Trade/E-commerce
Information Technology
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023.
Note:
Flexible Workspace
recorded transactions Others
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
On-site renewable energy generation 58% 15% 4% 77% September 21, 2023
Market Outlook
HANOI HCMC
Rental Vacancy Rental Vacancy
growth rate growth rate
8% 40% 8% 40%
6% 30% 6% 30%
4% 20% 4% 20%
2% 10% 2% 10%
0% 0% 0% 0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
-2% -10% -2% -10%
Rent - Grade A Rent - Grade A CBD Rent - Grade B Vacancy rate - Grade A Vacancy rate - Grade A CBD Vacancy rate - Grade B
Note: The asking rents and vacancy rates in Hanoi does not include TechnoPark Tower. Asking rents are exclusive of VAT and service charge.
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023.
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 20
Vietnam Real Estate Market Outlook 2024
Retail
Market
Vibrant Retail Landscape: Hanoi Welcomed One Large-Scale Shopping Mall
HANOI
1,500
1,200
900
600
300
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Opening of Lotte Mall Westlake Re-opening of The Loop Shopping Center
Hanoi, September 2023 Hanoi, June 2023
Existing supply - Hanoi New supply - Hanoi
HCMC
1,500
1,200
900
600
300
-
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Re-opening of Hung Vuong Plaza SAVICO Mega Mall rebranded as TASCO Mall
Existing supply - HCMC New supply - HCMC HCMC, September 2023 Hanoi, December 2023
Resilient CBD: Ascending Rents as Luxury Brands Make their Entrance Non-CBD: Hanoi's Newly Opened Projects and HCMC's Limited
Supply Support the Rental Surge
Market 250 ▲6% y-o-y 60 ▲28% y-o-y
US$/sqm/month
US$/sqm/month
Performance 200
▲13% y-o-y 40
▲12% y-o-y
Despite 150
100 20
Dropping 50
Consumer 0
2020 2021 2022 2023
0
2020 2021 2022 2023
Confidence Asking rent CBD - Hanoi Asking rent CBD - HCMC Asking rent Non CBD - Hanoi Asking rent Non CBD - HCMC
120,000 16%
Vacancy rate
60,000 12%
0 8%
-60,000 4%
-120,000 0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Net absorption - HCMC Net absorption - Hanoi Ave. vacancy rate - HCMC Ave. vacancy rate - Hanoi
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Note: Asking rents for ground and first floor, exclusive of VAT and service charge 23
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023.
VIETNAM RETAIL MARKET
Retail Sales Growth in Vietnam and Selected Markets (Y-o-Y% Change)
Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023
-10%
U.K. Euro Area Australia Mainland China Japan U.S. Vietnam
Source: Vietnam General Statistics Office, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, China National Bureau of Statistics,
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Eurostat, ONS, Oxford Economics, January 2024. 24
Retail market bursting with New Entrance and Expansion
Luxury Brands stays active despite economic challenges
Lotte Mall Westlake hosts 25
international brands entering
Vietnam for the first time
Sep 22, 2023
Southeast Asia Feel positive about the future performance of the economy
HANOI
CBD: 6,358 sqm
Non-CBD: 138,713 sqm
HCMC
CBD: 0 sqm
Non-CBD: 76,000 sqm Vincom Center
Grand Park
Sun Tower
2024
Vincom Shopping Mall in Vinhomes Grand Park
Parc Mall
Note: Asking rents for ground and first floor, exclusive of VAT and service charge
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023.
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 29
Vietnam Real Estate Market Outlook 2024
Residential
Market
2023 Residential Market in Review
VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2023 • VND 120 trillion credit package
(social housing);
• Decree 10 (vacation property
real estate);
• State Bank Vietnam set 2023
credit growth as 14%;
National Assembly passed the
amended Housing Law and
• Decree 08 (bond market); • Policy interest rates reduced • Hanoi inspected all mini- amended Law on Real Estate
• Policy interest rates reduced for another two times within apartments after the tragic fire. Business
twice within 2023. 2023.
HCMC Launched Avatar Thu Duc (>900 • Keppel Corporation Gamuda Land acquired 3.6ha
land in Thu Duc City,
Launched The Privia
(~900 units)
units), Elysian (>470 units) acquired 49% stake in a
11.8ha land in Thu Duc City SkyWorld Development
• Launched Vinhomes Grand Berhad acquired a 5,200sq.m.
Park The Glory Heights land in District 8
(~3,000 units)
Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2023
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 31
2023 Key Performance Trend:
VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET
Hanoi vs HCMC
HANOI HCMC
Developers Developers
Lowest new
Increasing development supply in 10 years Investment interest remains high
activities from Southern-based with major M&A deals from foreign
and foreign developers investors
Supply-demand
mismatch
Absorption
Absorption Slow licensing The number of sold units reach
Positive absorption, particularly progress only below 50% of new launch
towards condominium
Positive signals
Pricing in the latter half Pricing
of 2023 Flattening primary price trend
Condominium prices are on the
upward trend while landed property in both condominium and
sees prices stabilizing landed property markets
Supply: HANOI
50,000
2023 vs 2022
Condominium: ▼-32%
40,000
▼-84%
new launch in
Units
30,000 Landed property:
and HCMC 0
2,587
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
HCMC
2023 vs 2022
50,000
Condominium: ▼-54%
40,000
Units
Units
Vinhomes Grand 20,000 2023: 7,380 units
NORTH Park (next phase) ▼-59% y-o-y
EAST 10,000
Elysian 0
The Global 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F H1 2023 H2 2023
Eaton Park City MT Eastmark
The River Landed property Sold units
Zeit River
WEST CBD
Lotte Eco Smart City H2 2023: 46 units
The Privia 3,000 ▼-39% vs H1 2023
2,000 2023: 121 units
Units
The Sholi
▼-91% y-o-y
The Aurora
1,000
Akari City
Mizuki Park 29 121 15 75 14 46
0
SOUTH 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F H1 2023 H2 2023
Units
20,000 ▼-32% y-o-y
10,000
Vinhomes 0
Dan Phuong Vinhomes 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F H1 2023 H2 2023
Endless Skyline Co Loa
WEST West Lake
The Wisteria Landed property
MID- EAST Sold units
TOWN CBD 20,000
Nam An Khanh VOCP H2 2023: 1,791 units
Rue de 15,000 ▲+5% vs H1 2023
Vinhomes Smart City
Charme
VOCP3 2023: 3,489 units
Units
Duong Noi 10,000 ▼-74% y-o-y
Central The Island
Residence Mall,
Ecopark
VOCP2 5,000
SOUTH
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F H1 2023 H2 2023
Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2023
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 35
VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET Hanoi & HCMC Condominium market, Average primary prices, 2019 2023
VND mn/sq.m.
60
remained at a high 40
53.2
CAGR (2019 2023): 14%
level as the share of 20 2023: ▲+15% y-o-y
high-end new 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
supply is increasing
HCMC Share of high-end1:
60 61.4
• Affordable: <US$1,000/sqm
• Mid-end: US$1,000 - 2,000/sqm 40 CAGR (2019 2023): 8%
•
•
High-end: US$2,000 - 4,000/sqm
Luxury: >$4,000/sqm 20 2023: ▼-2% y-o-y
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2023. Note: (1) Share of high-end segment in total new supply within each given period 36
VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET Hanoi & HCMC Landed property market, Average primary prices, 2019 2023
VND mn/sq.m.
Primary prices in 200 184
150
HCMC set a new high 100 CAGR (2019 2023): 12%
2023: ► 0% y-o-y
due to limited supply 50
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
HCMC
300
259
VND mn/sq.m.
250
200 CAGR (2019 2023): 30%
150 2023: ▼ -1% y-o-y
100
50
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2023. 37
VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET Hanoi and HCMC Residential market, Average secondary prices, 2019 2023
VND mn/sq.m.
Condominium: Hanoi 40
continued its upward trend
while prices in HCMC levelled 20 ▲ +6% y-o-y
off.
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Landed Property: Secondary
prices of landed properties
continued to decline, yet at a Landed property
slower rate.
200
▼ -5% y-o-y
VND mn/sq.m.
150
▼ -2% y-o-y
100
50
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Hanoi HCMC
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2023 38
VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET
Increasing '
CapitaLand Keppel Land & Phu Long
development
activities from foreign
and Southern-based Lumi Hanoi (5.6 ha) Mailand Hanoi City, Hanoi (264.1 ha)
Northern market
Lumiere Evergreen, Hanoi (2.3 ha) Hong Hac City, Bac Ninh (198.5 ha)
The Metropolitan The Zurich, Hanoi (1.8 ha) Nam Long Hai Phong 2 (1.5 ha)
CBRE Research
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 39
VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET
November 8th, 2023
Units
Units
20,000 20,000
development activities.
Absorption to remain strong. 10,000 10,000
Supply and absorption in 0 0
HCMC to slowly recover 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
towards the latter half of 2024. Launched units Sold units Launched units Sold units
75 75 +2% p.a.
+2% p.a.
Primary pricing in Hanoi & 65 +2% p.a. +3% p.a.
65
VND mn/sq.m.
HCMC to continue rising as +3% p.a.
VND mn/sq.m.
+3% p.a.
more new supplies of high- 55 55
end positioning are expected 45 45
to launch.
35 35
Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2023
25 25
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F2025F2026F
15,000 15,000
Supply in Hanoi to pick up in
Units
Units
10,000 10,000
the latter half of 2024 as it is
expected to welcome 5,000 5,000
121
launches from several large- 29
scale townships. 0 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
New launch in HCMC to Launched units Sold units Launched units Sold units
remain low.
VND mn/sq.m.
+4% p.a.
VND mn/sq.m.
0 0
Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
POLL RESULTS
AT CBRE EVENT
44
The results from the audience attending CBRE's event in HCMC were similar to those recorded at the CBRE event in Hanoi. In Hanoi, 51% of the
audience selected the option "Remains strong, but affordability is a growing concern.
Interest Rates Movement and Access to Funding (36%) and The Amended
Land Law, Housing Law & Real Estate Business Law (30%).
Note: Results from audience joining CBRE Event in HCMC. At the CBRE Event in Hanoi, 68% of the audience expected a
slight improvement in the market for 2024, while 24% anticipated a significant improvement..
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