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11 JANUARY 2024

Q4 2023
VIETNAM
CONTENTS

01. Industrial Market

02. Office Market

03. Retail Market

04. Residential Market


Vietnam Real Estate Market Outlook 2024

Industrial
Market
Tier 1 market
Hanoi, Hai Phong, Bac Ninh, Hai Duong, Hung Yen
South: HCMC, Dong Nai, Binh Duong, Long An
Industrial Land Sector Thrives as Tenants Continue
VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET
Expanding Operations in Vietnam
Southern Tier-1 plus: US$ 174 per sqm

Northern Tier-1: US$ 132 per sqm Southern Tier-1: US$ 189 per sqm Southern Tier-2
300
remaining terms
US$/sqm/

200

100

0
Bac Ninh Hai Phong Hung Yen Hai Duong Binh Duong Dong Nai Long An BR-VT Tay Ninh Binh Phuoc

NORTH TIER-1 SOUTH TIER-1


1,500 100% 1,500 100%
Hectare

Hectare
1,200 80% 1,200 80%
900 60% 900 60%
600 40% 600 40%
300 20% 300 20%
- 0% 0 0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Net absorption Occupancy rates


Note: Southern Tier-1 plus including BR-VT
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023.
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 4
RBW/RBF: North Sustains Higher New Supply,
VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET South Stabilizes at Lower Levels

Asking rents 2023 (**) Asking rents 2023 (**)

NORTH TIER 1 RBF ▲ 3.9% y-o-y SOUTH TIER 1 RBF ▲ 2.3% y-o-y
RBW ▲ 0.1% y-o-y RBW ▲ 4.7% y-o-y

Higher asking rents driven by new high-


1,200 5.0 1,200 standard projects in HCMC and Long An 5.0
New supply ('000 sqm)

US$/sqm/month

US$/sqm/month
900 4.5 900 4.5
Stronger rental growth due to healthy absorption
600 and openings of projects in good locations 4.0 600 4.0

300 3.5 300 3.5

- 3.0 0 3.0
2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023
RBF - New supply RBW(*) - New supply RBF - Rents RBW(*) - Rents
Note: (*): Excluding Service Warehouse (**) Asking rents do not include incentives
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023.

VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 5


RBF/RBW: Positive net absorption in both regions
VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET
Southern region rebounds in H2 with flexible leasing policies
Net absorption 2023
Net absorption 2023
H2 2023 = 3.8x H1 2023
NORTH TIER 1 RBF ▲ 52% y-o-y SOUTH TIER 1 RBF ▲ 38% y-o-y
RBW ▲ 38% y-o-y RBW ▲ 28% y-o-y

1,000,000 100% 1,000,000 100%

800,000 80% 800,000 80%

sqm
600,000 60% 600,000 60%
sqm

400,000 40% 400,000 40%

200,000 20% 200,000 20%

- 0% 0 0%
2020 2021 2022 H1 2023 H2 2023 2020 2021 2022 H1 2023 H2 2023

RBF - Net Absorption RBW - Net Absorption RBF - Occupancy rates RBW - Occupancy rates
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2023
RBW excludes service warehouse

VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 6


Chinese manufacturers expand in the North;
VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET US-EU tenants thrive in the South, boosting absorption rates

Vietnam China
Singapore 17% Vietnam
21% 21%
USA 33%
5% USA
5% China
2023 Japan
NORTH 7%
2022 15% Denmark 9%
Taiwan
Korea
10% 11% Hong Kong
10% 11% Hong Kong 13%
13% Others
Other

11% USA
18% 16%
26% Vietnam
China
7%
13% Japan
SOUTH 4%
7%
2022
43% 5%
2023
Germany
4% 8% 10% Singapore
7% Korea
11% 10%
Other

VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023 7
More diversified demand supports positive performance across regions and product types
NORTHERN CITIES SOUTHERN CITIES
Type Nationality Industry Size TYPE Nationality Industry Size
AND PROVINCES AND PROVINCES
Bac Ninh China Electronics 62.7ha Binh Phuoc China Automotive components 46ha
Bac Giang Taiwan Electronics 45.0ha Long An Vietnam Garment 36ha

Quang Ninh Taiwan Automobiles 35.0 ha Dong Nai Japan Mechanical 26ha
Industrial
Hai Duong Land China Electronics 22.6ha BR-VT Industrial Korea Chemical 25ha
Long An Land Vietnam - US WH & RBF Developer 20ha
Nam Dinh Taiwan Electronics 22.5ha
Binh Duong China WH Developer 20ha
Hai Phong Germany Nonwoven materials 19.0 ha
Dong Nai Singapore WH & RBF Developer 16.4ha
Thai Nguyen China Flooring 37,000 sqm
Dong Nai China plastics 15ha
Hai Phong China Plastics/Flooring 35,000 sqm
Dong Nai China Electronics 20,000 sqm
Hung Yen Chinese Electronic Vehicles 29,000 sqm
Dong Nai Germany Mechanical & Electronics 14,000 sqm
Ha Nam China Electronics 28,000 sqm Pharmaceutical and medical
Long An Korea 10,000 sqm
Quang Ninh RBF China Automobiles 20,000 sqm RBF equipment
Binh Duong China Magnetics 6,000 sqm
Quang Ninh China Flooring 19,000 sqm
BR-VT Vietnam Packaging 5,800 sqm
Thai Nguyen China Flooring 18,000 sqm
Dong Nai ThaiLand Garment 5,000 sqm
Bac Ninh Taiwan Electronics 15,000 sqm
HCMC Vietnam Logistics 26,000 sqm
Hai Duong China Electronics 15,000 sqm
Dong Nai USA Logistics 20,000 sqm
Bac Ninh Singapore E-commerce 60,000 sqm
Long An France Manufacturer 15,800 sqm
Hai Phong China 3PL 36,000 sqm
Long An RBW France Manufacturer 13,000 sqm
Hai Phong RBW Vietnam Automobile 20,000 sqm Binh Duong Vietnam Retail 12,700 sqm
Bac Ninh Korea F&B 20,000 sqm Long An Singapore E commerce 10,185 sqm
Bac Ninh Confidential E-commerce 18,000 sqm Long An Vietnam Logistics 10,000 sqm
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 8

Source: CBRE Research, 2023


Infrastructure developments:
VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET Key infrastructure projects to boost the industrial market
Ninh Binh Hai Phong
Hanoi Ring Road 4 Expressway
To be completed in 2025 To be completed in 2027

Tier-1 markets
To be completed in 2026 Tier-2 markets
Bien Hoa Vung Tau Expressway
To be completed in 2025

HCMC Ring Road 3


To be completed in 2025

Dau Giay Phan Thiet Vinh Hao


My Thuan - Can Tho Expressway Expressway
& My Thuan 2 Bridge
Completed in 2023
Completed in 2023

VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Source: Cafeland, VnExpress, CBRE Research, Q4 2023 9
VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET Industrial Land, Forecasted New Supply and Rental Rates

Market Outlook Forecasted Annual Rental Forecasted Annual Rental


Growth: 2024 - 2026 Growth: 2024 - 2026
NORTH SOUTH
5-9% pa 3-7% pa
Industrial land 3,000 300 3,000 300
rental rates
continue to rise, 2,500 250 2,500 250

US$/sqm/remaining terms
albeit at a
Industrial land (ha)

US$/sqm/remaining term
Industrial land (ha)
2,000 200 2,000 200
moderate pace 1,500 150
1,500 150

1,000 100 1,000 100

500 50 500 50

- 0 0 0
2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
Tier 1 - New Supply Tier 2 - New Supply Tier 1 - Average asking rents Tier 2 - Average asking rents
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023.

VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 10


VIETNAM INDUSTRIAL MARKET RBF/RBW, Forecasted New Supply and Rental Rates
NORTH SOUTH Forecasted Annual Rental
Market Outlook Forecasted Annual Rental
Growth: 2024 - 2026 Growth: 2024 - 2026
800 1-4% pa 7.0 800 2-4% pa 7.0
Supply growth to
700 6.5 700 6.5
slow down but
competition remains 600 6.0 600 6.0

New Supply ('000 sqm)

US$/sqm/month
strong in ready-built

US$/sqm/month
500 5.5 500 5.5
facilities segment 400 5.0 400 5.0

300 4.5 300 4.5

200 4.0 200 4.0


Forecasted Supply 2023
100 3.5 100 3.5
growth per annum Supply
2024-2026 Growth - 3.0 0 3.0
North 15 20% 23 - 38% 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F

South 8 16% 10 25% RBF - New supply RBW - New supply RBF - Average Asking Rent RBW - Average Asking Rent
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023

VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 11


Vietnam Real Estate Market Outlook 2024

Office
Market
VIETNAM OFFICE MARKET
OFFICE NEW SUPPLY

Hanoi: 1.74mn sqm, NLA


New Supply 2023: +132,000 sqm
(Lancaster Luminaire, Lotte Mall West Lake, Diamond Park Plaza, Vinaconex Diamond Tower, Intracom Riverside)
Surged in 2023
with the HCMC: 1.66mn sqm, NLA
2023: +169,000 sqm

domination of
(OfficeHaus, The Hallmark, The Mett, The Nexus, VPBank Saigon Tower, The Waterfront)

Grade A HANOI HCMC


140 180
Thousands sqm

Thousands sqm
120 150
100
120
80
90
60
60
40
20 30
0 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Grade A - New supply Grade B - New supply Grade A - New Supply Grade B - New Supply
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023. 13
VIETNAM OFFICE MARKET OFFICE NET ABSORPTION
150

A tale of two
88% from Grade A

Thousands sqm
New supply
100

cities: 50

How to (50)
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 H1 2023 H2 2023

understand the Hanoi - Net Absorption HCMC - Net Absorption

differences? OFFICE PERFORMANCE

HANOI Q4 2023 Rental movements HCMC Q4 2023 Rental movements


Grade A: ▲1.2% y-o-y Grade A: ► 0.1% y-o-y
$60 Grade B: ▼-1.4% y-o-y 30% $60 Grade B: ► 0% y-o-y 30%

USD/sqm/month
USD/sqm/month

$40 20% $40 20%

$20 10% $20 10%

$- 0% $0 0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc.


Note: The asking rents and vacancy rates in Hanoi does not include TechnoPark Tower. Asking rents are exclusive of VAT and service charge. 14
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023.
VIETNAM OFFICE MARKET Notable transactions by Purpose

Flight-to- HANOI
quality 100%
80%
Tenant Industry Current office Leasing size

Relocation:
(sqm)
60% Finance/Banking Capital Place Relocation from a 2,400 sqm
Main leasing 40% /Insurance
Finance/Banking
Grade B in Midtown
Lancaster Luminaire - Relocation 1,500 sqm
purpose for
20%
/Insurance from a Grade B in Midtown
0%
both Hanoi Expansion
2019 2020
New lease
2021
Relocation
2022
Renewal
2023
Contraction
Logistics Capital Place Relocation from a
Grade B in Midtown
1,200 sqm

and HCMC
HCMC
100%
Tenant Industry Current office Leasing size
80% (sqm)
60% Finance/Banking/ The Mett Relocation from 9,000 sqm
40% Insurance Grade B offices in D1

20% Finance/Banking/ The Hallmark Relocation 8,000 sqm


Insurance from own-use office in D1
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023.
0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Life Sciences/ The Nexus Relocation from 6,300 sqm
Note:
Healthcare/Pharma aged Grade A offices/ stand
recorded transactions Expansion New lease Relocation Renewal Contraction
(03 tenants) alone building in D1

VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 15


VIETNAM OFFICE MARKET Notable transactions by Industry

Finance/Banking Flexible Workspace


Finance/Banking/Insurance
/Insurance & Information Technology
Manufacturing
HANOI

Flexible Life Sciences/Healthcare/Pharma

Workspace Education
Retail/Trade/E-commerce
remain the Services
Others
driving motives 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Finance/Banking/Insurance
Manufacturing
Life Sciences/Healthcare/Pharma
Professional Services HCMC
Retail/Trade/E-commerce
Information Technology
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023.
Note:
Flexible Workspace
recorded transactions Others
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 16


VIETNAM OFFICE MARKET

Flexible workspace: Solid international operators increased presence


Change in market share worldwide
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
No. of centers in Average
(International)WeWork
WeWork Occupancy
Vietnam
(China)Ucommune
Ucommune
Distrii
(China) Distrii
Regus
(International) Regus
CFG
(China) CFG
Smartworks
(India) Smartworks
The Executive Centre
(APAC) TEC
Krspace
(China) Krspace
ATLASPACE
11centres ~85%
(China) ATLASPACE
Simpliwork
(India) Simpliwork
FastFive
(Korea) FastFive
JustCo
(APAC) JustCo
Sparkplus
(Korea) Sparkplus
MFG
03centres ~90%
Servcorp
(China) MFG
Sep-22 Sep-23 Increased Market Share
Entered Vietnam
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023.
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 17
VIETNAM OFFICE MARKET

ESG Features: From Nice To Have to Must Have for MNCs


How ESG features impact a real estate transaction?

Pay a Seek a Reject Task obvious for Vietnam’s green building


Total
Premium Discount Building
Impact development
(if present) (if absent) (if absent)
October 02, 2023

Features that reduce energy consumption 35% 31% 18% 84%


IFC: Climate investment opportunities in
Green building certification 45% 21% 13% 79% Vietnam to amount to 757 billion USD by 2030

On-site renewable energy generation 58% 15% 4% 77% September 21, 2023

Features that improve physical and mental health


of building users
49% 12% 6% 67% Banks join in promoting green credit
September 06, 2023
Health and well-being certifications
47% 14% 2% 63%
(e.g., WELL)

Green lease clauses to enforce action 33% 17% 8% 58%


HSBC Vietnam commits $12 billion to the green
development of Vietnam
January 25, 2022

Source: CBRE Research, Survey of Global Property Professionals, Q4 2023.


VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 18
VIETNAM OFFICE MARKET

Thu Thiem Office Hub: Across the river

Grade A CBD THU THIEM


Existing Supply (sqm) ~400,000 ~82,000
Estimated Future Supply to 2030 (sqm) ~190,000 ~ 280,000
Average asking rent ~51 45
(US$ psm pm)
Vacancy rate(%) 16.8% ~42%
Green certificate adoption ~34% ~100%

Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023.


VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. (*): including Prime & Non-prime location of CBD 19
VIETNAM OFFICE MARKET

Market Outlook
HANOI HCMC
Rental Vacancy Rental Vacancy
growth rate growth rate

10% 50% 10% 50%

8% 40% 8% 40%

6% 30% 6% 30%

4% 20% 4% 20%

2% 10% 2% 10%

0% 0% 0% 0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
-2% -10% -2% -10%

-4% -20% -4% -20%

-6% -30% -6% -30%

Rent - Grade A Rent - Grade A CBD Rent - Grade B Vacancy rate - Grade A Vacancy rate - Grade A CBD Vacancy rate - Grade B

Note: The asking rents and vacancy rates in Hanoi does not include TechnoPark Tower. Asking rents are exclusive of VAT and service charge.
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023.
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 20
Vietnam Real Estate Market Outlook 2024

Retail
Market
Vibrant Retail Landscape: Hanoi Welcomed One Large-Scale Shopping Mall

HANOI

1,500
1,200
900
600
300
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Opening of Lotte Mall Westlake Re-opening of The Loop Shopping Center
Hanoi, September 2023 Hanoi, June 2023
Existing supply - Hanoi New supply - Hanoi

HCMC

1,500
1,200
900
600
300
-
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Re-opening of Hung Vuong Plaza SAVICO Mega Mall rebranded as TASCO Mall
Existing supply - HCMC New supply - HCMC HCMC, September 2023 Hanoi, December 2023

VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 22


VIETNAM RETAIL MARKET

Resilient CBD: Ascending Rents as Luxury Brands Make their Entrance Non-CBD: Hanoi's Newly Opened Projects and HCMC's Limited
Supply Support the Rental Surge
Market 250 ▲6% y-o-y 60 ▲28% y-o-y

US$/sqm/month
US$/sqm/month
Performance 200
▲13% y-o-y 40
▲12% y-o-y
Despite 150
100 20
Dropping 50

Consumer 0
2020 2021 2022 2023
0
2020 2021 2022 2023
Confidence Asking rent CBD - Hanoi Asking rent CBD - HCMC Asking rent Non CBD - Hanoi Asking rent Non CBD - HCMC

Robust Absorption Fuels a Healthy Retail Market


180,000 20%
Net absorption (sqm)

120,000 16%

Vacancy rate
60,000 12%
0 8%
-60,000 4%
-120,000 0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Net absorption - HCMC Net absorption - Hanoi Ave. vacancy rate - HCMC Ave. vacancy rate - Hanoi
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Note: Asking rents for ground and first floor, exclusive of VAT and service charge 23
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023.
VIETNAM RETAIL MARKET
Retail Sales Growth in Vietnam and Selected Markets (Y-o-Y% Change)
Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023

Retail sales decline, or rate of growth slows


20%

growth has generally


been positive 15%

compared to other 10%


markets
5%
Rising inflation has pressured retail
sales growth in some markets,
including Europe, Australia and 0%
Mainland China.
The retail sale growth in Vietnam was -5% High growth
9.6% in Q4 2023, lower than the 17% rates largely
growth in Q4 2022. due to low base

-10%
U.K. Euro Area Australia Mainland China Japan U.S. Vietnam

Source: Vietnam General Statistics Office, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, China National Bureau of Statistics,
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Eurostat, ONS, Oxford Economics, January 2024. 24
Retail market bursting with New Entrance and Expansion
Luxury Brands stays active despite economic challenges
Lotte Mall Westlake hosts 25
international brands entering
Vietnam for the first time
Sep 22, 2023

Cotti Coffee debut in


Vietnam with 3 stores in HCMC
French luxury leather good brand Dec 19, 2023
comes to Vietnam Uniqlo opens the 22nd store in Vietnam
Sep 22, 2023
in the heart of Hanoi Vietnam coffee chain Cong Ca
Oct 17, 2023 Phe enters Canada
Dec 7, 2023

Balmain opened the 1st


boutique in Vietnam
Oct 30, 2023

Piaget opened new store in


Chaumet launched its 1st luxury Union Square, HCMC
jewellery boutique in Vietnam Loewe makes entrance in Vietnam Dec 2023
Oct 2023
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Nov 9, 2023 25
Feel positive about the current economic situation
VIETNAM RETAIL MARKET

Vietnamese are among


the most optimistic in 71% 68% 62% 50% 48%

Southeast Asia Feel positive about the future performance of the economy

While Vietnamese have a more positive


outlook overall, more consumers are feeling

3 out of 4 Vietnamese anticipate an 72% 68% 64% 61% 47%


economic recession occurring within the
next 6 to 12 months - a 19% jump from last
Foresee their country going into a recession in the next 6-12 months

74% 71% 75% 72% 68%


(+19%)
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 26
Source: ASEAN Consumer Sentiment Study (ACSS) 2023 Report by UOB, November 1, 2023
VIETNAM RETAIL MARKET

Future Supply in Hanoi


New supply heading to the
West and Mid-Town
New retail leasing space by 2025

HANOI
CBD: 6,358 sqm
Non-CBD: 138,713 sqm

The Linc Park City


2024
36 Cat Linh
Vinaconex Diamond Plaza
The Diamond Residence
My Dinh Pearl
Taisei Square Hanoi

2025 Tien Bo Plaza


Vincom Mega Mall Co Loa Taisei Square
Hanoi
27 Ly Thai To
The Grand Hanoi

VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 27


VIETNAM RETAIL MARKET

Future Supply in HCMC


No more new supply this year
HCMC MAP

New retail leasing space by 2025

HCMC
CBD: 0 sqm
Non-CBD: 76,000 sqm Vincom Center
Grand Park
Sun Tower

2024
Vincom Shopping Mall in Vinhomes Grand Park
Parc Mall

2025 Parc Mall


Sun Tower

VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 28


VIETNAM RETAIL MARKET

How will the market perform?


HANOI HCMC

US$/sqm/month Vacancy Rate US$/sqm/month Vacancy Rate

300 24% 300 24%


250 20% 250 20%
200 16% 200 16%
150 12% 150 12%
100 8% 100 8%
50 4% 50 4%
0 0% 0 0%
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F

Note: Asking rents for ground and first floor, exclusive of VAT and service charge
Source: CBRE Research, Q4 2023.
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 29
Vietnam Real Estate Market Outlook 2024

Residential
Market
2023 Residential Market in Review
VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2023 • VND 120 trillion credit package
(social housing);
• Decree 10 (vacation property
real estate);
• State Bank Vietnam set 2023
credit growth as 14%;
National Assembly passed the
amended Housing Law and
• Decree 08 (bond market); • Policy interest rates reduced • Hanoi inspected all mini- amended Law on Real Estate
• Policy interest rates reduced for another two times within apartments after the tragic fire. Business
twice within 2023. 2023.

• Introduction of Lumi Hanoi, a 4000-


• Vinhomes Ocean Park 2 & 3 unit high rise project;
• Follow-on launch of nearly 200
units from Epic Tower project;
launched over 300 First launch of The • Active launches from condominium
HANOI • Launch of over 200 SOHO units
shophouses in Mega Complex
and Mega Grand World;
Metropolitan The Zurich
(>600 condo units)
projects in townships (The
Metropolitan, Canopy Residences,
in Heritage West Lake project. • Launch of over 220 units from offering special sale policy Lumiere Evergreen, The Wisteria)
Capital Elite project.

HCMC Launched Avatar Thu Duc (>900 • Keppel Corporation Gamuda Land acquired 3.6ha
land in Thu Duc City,
Launched The Privia
(~900 units)
units), Elysian (>470 units) acquired 49% stake in a
11.8ha land in Thu Duc City SkyWorld Development
• Launched Vinhomes Grand Berhad acquired a 5,200sq.m.
Park The Glory Heights land in District 8
(~3,000 units)
Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2023
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 31
2023 Key Performance Trend:
VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET
Hanoi vs HCMC

HANOI HCMC
Developers Developers
Lowest new
Increasing development supply in 10 years Investment interest remains high
activities from Southern-based with major M&A deals from foreign
and foreign developers investors
Supply-demand
mismatch
Absorption
Absorption Slow licensing The number of sold units reach
Positive absorption, particularly progress only below 50% of new launch
towards condominium
Positive signals
Pricing in the latter half Pricing
of 2023 Flattening primary price trend
Condominium prices are on the
upward trend while landed property in both condominium and
sees prices stabilizing landed property markets

Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2023


VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 32
VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET Hanoi and HCMC Residential Market, New launch, 2013 2023

Supply: HANOI
50,000
2023 vs 2022
Condominium: ▼-32%
40,000
▼-84%
new launch in

Units
30,000 Landed property:

both Hanoi 20,000


10,000
10,278

and HCMC 0
2,587

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

HCMC
2023 vs 2022
50,000
Condominium: ▼-54%
40,000
Units

Landed property: ▼-98%


30,000
20,000
8,707
10,000
29
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Condominium Landed property
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2023 33
VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET

Absorption: HCMC Condominium Sales Improved in Second Half of Year


HCMC, map of new launches in 2023 and 2024F HCMC residential market, New launch and sold units, 2019 2024F
Condo Landed
Launched supply in 2023 Condominium
Sold units
Future supply in 2024
40,000 H2 2023: 4,930 units
▲+101% vs H1 2023
9X An Suong
Avatar 30,000 ▼-35%% y-o-y
Thu Duc

Units
Vinhomes Grand 20,000 2023: 7,380 units
NORTH Park (next phase) ▼-59% y-o-y
EAST 10,000
Elysian 0
The Global 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F H1 2023 H2 2023
Eaton Park City MT Eastmark
The River Landed property Sold units
Zeit River
WEST CBD
Lotte Eco Smart City H2 2023: 46 units
The Privia 3,000 ▼-39% vs H1 2023
2,000 2023: 121 units

Units
The Sholi
▼-91% y-o-y
The Aurora
1,000
Akari City
Mizuki Park 29 121 15 75 14 46
0
SOUTH 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F H1 2023 H2 2023

Launched units Sold units


VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2023 34
VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET

Absorption: Stronger supply and absorption in Hanoi market


Hanoi residential market, New launch and sold units, 2019 2024F
Hanoi, map of new residential launches 2023-2024
Sold units
Condo Landed Condominium
Launched supply in 2023 H2 2023: 7,001 units
NORTH 40,000 ▲+63% vs H1 2023
Future supply in 2024 ▲+21% y-o-y
30,000
2023: 11,283 units

Units
20,000 ▼-32% y-o-y

10,000

Vinhomes 0
Dan Phuong Vinhomes 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F H1 2023 H2 2023
Endless Skyline Co Loa
WEST West Lake
The Wisteria Landed property
MID- EAST Sold units
TOWN CBD 20,000
Nam An Khanh VOCP H2 2023: 1,791 units
Rue de 15,000 ▲+5% vs H1 2023
Vinhomes Smart City
Charme
VOCP3 2023: 3,489 units

Units
Duong Noi 10,000 ▼-74% y-o-y
Central The Island
Residence Mall,
Ecopark
VOCP2 5,000
SOUTH
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F H1 2023 H2 2023
Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2023
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 35
VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET Hanoi & HCMC Condominium market, Average primary prices, 2019 2023

Condominium HANOI Share of high-end1:

5% 11% 30% 52% 75%


80
Primary prices

VND mn/sq.m.
60
remained at a high 40
53.2
CAGR (2019 2023): 14%
level as the share of 20 2023: ▲+15% y-o-y
high-end new 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
supply is increasing
HCMC Share of high-end1:

23% 73% 58% 90% 84%


80
VND mn/sq.m.

60 61.4
• Affordable: <US$1,000/sqm
• Mid-end: US$1,000 - 2,000/sqm 40 CAGR (2019 2023): 8%


High-end: US$2,000 - 4,000/sqm
Luxury: >$4,000/sqm 20 2023: ▼-2% y-o-y
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2023. Note: (1) Share of high-end segment in total new supply within each given period 36
VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET Hanoi & HCMC Landed property market, Average primary prices, 2019 2023

Landed property HANOI


300
250

VND mn/sq.m.
Primary prices in 200 184
150
HCMC set a new high 100 CAGR (2019 2023): 12%
2023: ► 0% y-o-y
due to limited supply 50
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

HCMC
300
259
VND mn/sq.m.
250
200 CAGR (2019 2023): 30%
150 2023: ▼ -1% y-o-y
100
50
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2023. 37
VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET Hanoi and HCMC Residential market, Average secondary prices, 2019 2023

Secondary prices Condominium


60
▼ -5% y-o-y

VND mn/sq.m.
Condominium: Hanoi 40
continued its upward trend
while prices in HCMC levelled 20 ▲ +6% y-o-y
off.
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Landed Property: Secondary
prices of landed properties
continued to decline, yet at a Landed property
slower rate.
200
▼ -5% y-o-y
VND mn/sq.m.

150
▼ -2% y-o-y
100
50
0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Hanoi HCMC
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2023 38
VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET

Increasing '
CapitaLand Keppel Land & Phu Long

development
activities from foreign
and Southern-based Lumi Hanoi (5.6 ha) Mailand Hanoi City, Hanoi (264.1 ha)

developers in Masterise Homes Phu My Hung

Northern market
Lumiere Evergreen, Hanoi (2.3 ha) Hong Hac City, Bac Ninh (198.5 ha)

Mitsubishi Corporation Nam Long Group

The Metropolitan The Zurich, Hanoi (1.8 ha) Nam Long Hai Phong 2 (1.5 ha)

CBRE Research
VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 39
VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET
November 8th, 2023

Investment activity: CapitaLand Development introduces Lumi Hanoi, a 4,000-unit high-


end residential project in the West of Hanoi
Foreign developers expanded footprint
through newly acquired developments
across North & South December 18th, 2023
Daibiru acquires equity interest in Central Hanoi Office Building -
following projects in U.S. and Australia, pursuing overseas
investment utilizing MOL Group Network -
2023
(US$ million)
1,583
December 10th, 2023
1,294 UOA, CapitaLand ink JV for US$ 247.1 million property
project in Vietnam

672 615 December 28th, 2023


423 Ecopark Phu Tho

July 20th, 2023


2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Gamuda buys company with 3.68 hectare land in Ho Chi
Minh City, Vietnam for US$ 315.8 million
Sources: MSCI Analytics, CBRE Research, Q4 2023

VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 40


VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET

Condominium HANOI HCMC


Market Outlook 40,000 40,000
Supply in Hanoi to recover in 30,000 30,000
2024 and witness robust

Units

Units
20,000 20,000
development activities.
Absorption to remain strong. 10,000 10,000
Supply and absorption in 0 0
HCMC to slowly recover 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
towards the latter half of 2024. Launched units Sold units Launched units Sold units

75 75 +2% p.a.
+2% p.a.
Primary pricing in Hanoi & 65 +2% p.a. +3% p.a.
65

VND mn/sq.m.
HCMC to continue rising as +3% p.a.
VND mn/sq.m.

+3% p.a.
more new supplies of high- 55 55
end positioning are expected 45 45
to launch.
35 35
Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2023
25 25
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F2025F2026F

VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 41


VIETNAM RESIDENTIAL MARKET

Landed property HANOI HCMC


Market Outlook 20,000 20,000

15,000 15,000
Supply in Hanoi to pick up in

Units
Units
10,000 10,000
the latter half of 2024 as it is
expected to welcome 5,000 5,000
121
launches from several large- 29
scale townships. 0 0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F
New launch in HCMC to Launched units Sold units Launched units Sold units
remain low.

+3% p.a. +5% p.a.


200 +2% p.a. 200 +5% p.a.
Secondary pricing in Hanoi +2% p.a.

VND mn/sq.m.
+4% p.a.
VND mn/sq.m.

to gradually increase and 150 150


recover towards the latter half
of 2024, while prices in HCMC 100 100
are projected to steadily rise
due to limited supply. 50 50

0 0
Sources: CBRE Research, Q4 2023 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024F 2025F 2026F

VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 42


Vietnam Real Estate Market Outlook 2024

POLL RESULTS
AT CBRE EVENT
44

Note: Results from audience joining in HCMC.

CBRE VIETNAM MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2023 | © CBRE, Inc.


45

At CBRE Event in HCMC

CBRE VIETNAM MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2023 | © CBRE, Inc.


46

At CBRE Event in Hanoi

CBRE VIETNAM MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2023 | © CBRE, Inc.


47

The results from the audience attending CBRE's event in HCMC were similar to those recorded at the CBRE event in Hanoi. In Hanoi, 51% of the
audience selected the option "Remains strong, but affordability is a growing concern.

CBRE VIETNAM MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2023 | © CBRE, Inc.


48

Interest Rates Movement and Access to Funding (36%) and The Amended
Land Law, Housing Law & Real Estate Business Law (30%).

CBRE VIETNAM MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2023 | © CBRE, Inc.


49

Note: Results from audience joining CBRE Event in HCMC. At the CBRE Event in Hanoi, 68% of the audience expected a
slight improvement in the market for 2024, while 24% anticipated a significant improvement..

CBRE VIETNAM MARKET INSIGHTS Q1 2023 | © CBRE, Inc.


For more information regarding this presentation
please contact:
CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. – Research & Consulting
T: +84 28 3824 6125 | +84 24 3698 8028
E: research.vietnam@cbre.com

Disclaimer: All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under
copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including projections, has been
obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do
not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation
about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness
and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes
only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer
or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments.
All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it,
may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior
express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorised publication or redistribution of CBRE
research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred
or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.

VIETNAM REAL ESTATE MARKET OUTLOOK 2024 | © CBRE, Inc. 50

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