STATISTICAL METHODS & RELIABILITY ENGINEERING (Module 701007)

ASSIGNMENT A2 - Solutions

Q1
Calculations using Run (1) data:
_
Mean of means = =x = 5500/10 = 550 g; Mean of std deviations = s = 160/10 = 16 g
For Tables (2C) and (2D), sample size, n, = 4.
_ _
Mean chart control limits ( =x ± B s ): Std dev chart control limits (E s ):
UAL = 55 + (1.677 x 1.6) = 576.832 g UAL = 2.53 x 1.6 = 40.48 g
UWL = 55 + (1.064 x 1.6) = 567.024 g UWL = 1.92 x 1.6 = 30.72 g
LWL = 55 - (1.064 x 1.6) = 532.976 g LWL = 0.29 x 1.6 = 4.64 g
LAL = 55 - (1.677 x 1.6) = 523.168 g LAL = 0.10 x 1.6 = 1.60 g

MEAN CHARTS:

STANDARD DEVIATION CHARTS:

Inferences:

Mean chart: Point 14 represents the 10th consecutive point below the =x line. Therefore, action
should have been taken at point 14.

Std dev chart: Point 11 represents the 7th consecutive point of an upwards trend. Therefore,
action should have been taken at point 11.
Possible causes: A reduction in absorbent material may explain behaviour of the mean chart.
Is this due to a problem with the supplied material (change in fibre density?) or is there a
problem with processing the material (combing and blowing)? The increasing variability on
the std deviation chart may indicate the latter?
Q2
Total sample size = N = (51 + 13) = 64.

Mean rank = i / (N + 1); where i = order number. Therefore, mean rank = i /65

Order Hours to Failure Mean Rank Plotting Point (t – t0)

Number (hours)
1 360 0.015385 1.5385 130
2 525 0.030769 3.0769 295
3 700 0.046154 4.6154 470
4 920 0.061538 6.1538 690
5 940 0.076923 7.6923 710
6 1185 0.092308 9.2308 955
7 1410 0.107692 10.7692 1180
8 1420 0.123077 12.3077 1190
9 1470 0.138462 13.8462 1240
10 1950 0.153846 15.3846 1720
11 2050 0.169231 16.9231 1820
12 2620 0.184615 18.4615 2390
13 2730 0.200000 20.0000 2500

(t3 – t2) (t2 – t1)

(i) Minimum life: t0 = t2 –
(t3 – t2) – (t2 – t1)
t1 = 360 h; t2 (from chart) = 800 h; t3 = 2730 h

Thus t0 = 800 – [(1930 x 440) / (1930 – 440)] = 800 – [849200 / 1490] = 230.067

Therefore t0 = ~230 hours

(ii) Characteristic life (from chart): η = ~12300 hours (to the nearest 100 hours)

(iii) Shape factor (from chart): β = ~0.9

Since β < 1, the nature of the failure is fatigue-based.

Q3
(a) MTTF = 3000 hr. λ = 1/3000 hr-1. Time required to complete the mission = 1000 hr
𝑅𝑅(𝑡𝑡) = 𝑒𝑒−𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆 ⇒ 𝑅𝑅(1000) = 𝑒𝑒−1000/3000 = 0.7165 = 71.7%
The mission reliability with only 1 panel P1 = 0.7165 (71.7%)

(b) The probability density of failure f is

𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 𝑑𝑑(1 − 𝑅𝑅) 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑

𝑓𝑓(𝑡𝑡) = = =− = 𝜆𝜆𝑒𝑒−𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆 .
𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑

The probability of a panel fails at time t (= f(t)∆t) and the spare panel can last for 1000 – t is
1000 1000
1000 −1000/3000
𝑃𝑃𝑤𝑤𝑤𝑤 = � 𝑓𝑓(𝑡𝑡) 𝑅𝑅(1000 − 𝑡𝑡)𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = 𝜆𝜆 � 𝑒𝑒−𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆 𝑒𝑒−𝜆𝜆(1000−𝑡𝑡) 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = 𝑒𝑒 = 0.2388
3000
0 0

The mission reliability with 2 panels available P2 is thus the probability that the first panel
survives after 400 hours + Pws = 0.9553 (95.5%)

(c) From (b), the probability that the two panels can sustain a total period of T is
𝑇𝑇

𝑃𝑃(𝑇𝑇) = 𝑅𝑅(𝑇𝑇) + � 𝑓𝑓(𝑥𝑥) 𝑅𝑅(𝑇𝑇 − 𝑥𝑥)𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = 𝑅𝑅(𝑇𝑇)(1 + 𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆)

0

Now, suppose the original panel fails at time t, the mission reliability with 3 panels is
1000

𝑅𝑅3 = 𝑅𝑅(1000) + � 𝑓𝑓(𝑡𝑡) 𝑃𝑃(1000 − 𝑡𝑡)𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑

0
1000 1000

= 𝑅𝑅(1000) + � 𝑓𝑓(𝑡𝑡) 𝑅𝑅(1000 − 𝑡𝑡)𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 + 𝜆𝜆 � (1000 − 𝑡𝑡)𝑓𝑓(𝑡𝑡)𝑅𝑅(1000 − 𝑡𝑡)𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑

0 0
1000
1000
= 𝑅𝑅(1000) + 𝑅𝑅(1000) + 𝜆𝜆2 � (1000 − 𝑡𝑡)𝑅𝑅(1000) 𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑
3000
0
1000 1 1000 2
= 𝑅𝑅(1000) + 𝑅𝑅(1000) + � � 𝑅𝑅(1000)
3000 2 3000
2
1 1 1
= 0.7165 �1 + � � + � � � = 0.9952
3 2 3

One can now observe that the probability that three panels can sustain a total period of T is

1
𝑃𝑃(𝑇𝑇) = 𝑅𝑅(𝑇𝑇) �1 + 𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆 + (𝜆𝜆𝜆𝜆)2 �
2

Thus if there are 3 spare panels together with the original one, the mission reliability is
1000
1 1 1 2 11 1 3
𝑅𝑅4 = 𝑅𝑅(1000) + � 𝑓𝑓(𝑡𝑡) 𝑃𝑃(1000 − 𝑡𝑡)𝑑𝑑𝑑𝑑 = 0.7165 �1 + � � + � � + � � �
3 2 3 23 3
0

Following the same procedure, for n spare panels with the original one, the mission reliability Pm
is
 3
1 1 𝑖𝑖−1
𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚 = 0.7165 � � �
(𝑖𝑖 − 1)! 3
𝑖𝑖=0

One can then generalizes for a mission period of Tr :

𝑛𝑛 𝑛𝑛
( ) 𝑖𝑖−1 (𝜆𝜆𝑇𝑇𝑟𝑟 )𝑖𝑖
𝜆𝜆𝑇𝑇𝑟𝑟
𝑅𝑅𝑚𝑚 = 𝑒𝑒−𝜆𝜆𝑇𝑇𝑟𝑟 � = 𝑒𝑒−𝜆𝜆𝑇𝑇𝑟𝑟 �1 + � �
(𝑖𝑖 − 1)! 𝑖𝑖!
𝑖𝑖=0 𝑖𝑖=1

One can also use mathematical induction to prove the formula.

(d)
The easiest way is to plot Rm against n :
n Rm
0 0.716531311
1 0.955375081
2 0.995182376
3 0.999605409
4 0.999973995
5 0.999998567

For a < 7, n = 3, otherwise n = 4.