701007 STATISTICAL METHODS AND RELIABILITY ENGINEERING

Additional Tutorial exercises (Block 1)

1) Assume that customers enter a store at a rate of 60 persons per hour.

(a) What is the probability that during a 5-minute interval, there is no one will enter the
store?
(b) What time interval is such that the probability is 0.5 that no one will enter the store
during that interval?

2) If X has the probability density of f(x) = x/2 for 0 < x < 2, calculate the probability that
(a) both of two sample values will exceed 1,
(b) exactly 2 of 4 sample values will exceed 1.

3) In the world series for baseball, the series is concluded when one team has won 4 games.
Suppose the probability of Team A winning a single game is 0.5 and this probability
does not change during the series competition, estimate the probability that the series will
end in 4, 5, 6 or 7 games, and Team A wins.

4) Two students agree to meet in a restaurant between 6 to 7 pm. If each agrees to wait 15
minutes for the other and they arrive independently at random between 6 and 7 pm,
express the probability density of one student meeting the other as a function of arrival
time and find the probability that they will meet within that hour?
Solution
1) (a)
This is a Poisson problem. In any 5-minute interval, the expected number of customers
entering the store is 60 / 60  5 = 5 persons =  (60 persons per hour = 1 person per
minute)
The probability of no one will enter the store within a 5-minute interval is
r −μ
μe
p ( r )= ,∧r =0
r!
p(0) = e-5 = 0.0067

(b) In this case, p(0) = 0.5 = e- and thus  = -ln(0.5) = 0.693 person
The time interval within which 0.693 person will enter the store = 0.693 minutes
That is, 41.6 sec.
2) (a)
The probability of a sample exceed 1 is

|
2 2 2 2
x x 1 3
p ( ¿ 1 )=∫ f ( x ) dx=∫ dx= =1− =
1 1 2 4 1 4 4

Both two sample values will exceed 1 = 3/4  3/4 = 9/16

(b)
This is a binomial problem.

( )
2 2
4 3 3 9 1 27
p ( 2 of 4 )=❑C2 1− =6 =
4 4 16 16 128

3) Competition ends in 4 games, Team A has a straight 4 wins,

1 1 1 1 1
p= × × × =
2 2 2 2 16
Competition ends in 5 games, Team A wins 3 games in the first 4 games and win the 5 th
one :

() ( )
3 1
4 1 1 1 1
p=❑C 3 × × 1− × =
2 2 2 8
Competition ends in 6 games, Team A wins 3 games in the first 5 games and win the 6 th
one :

() ( )
3 2
5 1 1 1 5
p=❑C 3 × × 1− × =
2 2 2 32
Competition ends in 7 games, Team A wins 3 games in the first 6 games and win the 7 th
one :

() ( )
3 3
6 1 1 1 15
p=❑C 3 × × 1− × =
2 2 2 128

4) They arrive randomly between 6 to 7 pm. The probability of anyone of time arriving at
anytime between 6 to 7 pm is constant. Suppose the probability density c, it then follows
that
1 hr

∫ cdt=1 ⟹ c=1 hr −1
0
The probability that a student will arrive in a 15-minute time interval is therefore
 1
hr
15 minutes 4
1
∫ cdt= ∫ cdt=
4
0 0

Thus suppose 1 student arrives earlier than the other student, the probability that they can
meet is thus ¼ from 6 pm to 6:45 pm.

From 6:45 pm to 7 pm, the waiting time is shorter :

1

∫ cdt=1−t <1/4
t
where t is in the unit of hour.

At 7 pm, p = 0. The probability of a meeting between 6:45 pm to 7pm is thus 1 - t. The

probability density function of having a meeting is thus

{
1 3
,∧0< t ≤
f ( t )= 4 4
,∧3
1−t <t ≤ 1
4

The probability is obtained by integrating f(t) from t = 0 (6pm) to t = 1 (7pm).

| ( )|
1 3/4 1 3/4 1
2
1 t t 3 1 7
p=∫ f ( t ) dt= ∫ dt+ ∫ ( 1−t ) dt= + t− = + =
0 0 4 3/ 4 4 0 2 3/ 4 16 32 32

There are two students, the overall probability is thus 7/32  2 = 7/16