Professional Documents
Culture Documents
FM3 Notes
FM3 Notes
FM3 Notes
04/01/2024
1. GENERAL INFORMATION
Page 2 of 72
Content Page
Chapter 1: Corporate Governance, Ethics and Agency Issues 03
Chapter 2: Short Term Financial Planning and Current Asset 08
Management
Chapter 3: Long Term Financial Planning and Growth 17
Chapter 4: The Cost of Capital/ Business valuation 23
Chapter 5: Dividends and Dividend Policy 39
Chapter 6: Capital Budgeting and Project Evaluation 45
Chapter 7: Risk and Return 66
Time value of money tables 71
Assessment
Two mandatory tests plus (any modifications will be communicated):
Test 1; Test 2; Assignment
The continuous assessment is calculated as the better of the two marks (DP Mark)
divided by two, multiplied by 40%. The examination mark contributes 60% to the final
grade. The overall final mark is determined by combining the continuous assessment
(40%) and the examination mark (60%). Note: There will be no opportunity for makeup
tests.
Test 1 : TBC
Test 2 : TBC
Assignment : TBC
AEGROTAT Test : TBC
NB: These are provisional dates subject to change based on the accounting
cluster test week allocation.
Page 3 of 72
TEMPLATE: MODULE DESCRIPTOR
Page 4 of 72
13. Explain the Capital Asset Pricing Model and its relationship
to the Security Market Line
18 Graduate attributes developed Basic Proficiency and Competency in Financial
and/or assessed in this Management
module Innovation by means of students using computers
Students will engage critical with both national and
international finance.
Broad understanding of Financial management in the
workplace
19 Module content 1. Long Term Financial Planning and Growth
2. Valuation of Bonds and Shares
3. Capital Budgeting and Project Evaluation
4. Cost of Capital, Capital Structure and Dividend Policy
5. Risk and Return
6. Short term Financial planning and Management
7. Corporate Governance
20 Teaching and learning
Learning activity % learning
time
Contact time 50
Reading 20
Tutorial 10
Library 10
Assessments 10
21 Assessment and moderation Does assessment include a final examination?
YES. 40 % YM, 60 % EXAM YES
Year mark: 40 %
Exam mark: 60 %
As this is an exit level subject, assessments will be externally
moderated.
22 Feedback to students on Within 10 working days
assessment
23 Resources required to offer Lecture Venue, Data Projector, Newspapers, Magazines
this module
24 Student numbers No limits for Full time
Minimum of 15 students for part time.
25 Quality assurance “The university’s quality assurance policies and procedures will
provide the QA for this module. Inter alia, subject and lecturer
evaluation questionnaires will be administered once per
module. A regular review of the module assessments will allow
reflection on the level of achievement of module outcomes.
This reflection will allow modification to teaching and learning
and assessments where necessary. Feedback will be provided
to students via staff/student meetings.”
26 Motivation for additional
credits
Page 5 of 72
Version Section number and Approved Date of Relevant
details of change by approval departments
informed
2
3
4
A system through which powers are exercised and shared by different stakeholders and
groups to ensure the achievement of the entity’s goals.
Expresses the view that a Board should govern entities in the best interests of all
shareholders. In practice the shareholder value approach to corporate governance is
generally accepted.
Page 6 of 72
Expresses the view that directors should run entities in the interests of all stakeholders of
the company.
This approach was advocated by all the three King Reports especially in the area of
reporting and disclosures. It takes the view that companies have a wide range of
stakeholders whose views should be considered and that corporate governance should
encourage participation by all the stakeholders.
• In line with best practice, the entity’s Board should appoint and terminate the
CEO’s contract without reference to the shareholders although in most companies,
shareholders demand that they be informed.
• The entity’s CEO should operate in terms of the authority delegated by the entity’s
Board.
• The entity’s CEO develops strategies, policies, budgets and business plans for
consideration and approval by the entity’s Board.
Not all codes on corporate governance specify the role for the Company Secretary.
But King II identifies the Company Secretary as having “… a pivotal role to play”.
• Assists the Chairman of the Board with preparing for, conducting and reporting the
outcome of board meeting and general meetings of the company.
• Is involved in the counting of proxy votes from shareholders for a General Meeting
although the detailed counting is likely to be done by the company auditors.
• Advises directors of the closed periods during which they can deal in shares of the
companies in which they provide leadership.
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• Assists the Chairpersons of Committees of Board, i.e. Audit, Remuneration &
Nominations Committees and attends committee meetings.
• Advises the Board Chairman and Board members on legal issues and issues of
procedure.
• Offers advice to the Board on legal risks, i.e. risks to the company flowing from the
consequences of breaching the law or any other regulations.
• Offers advice on current legal developments and new legislation and codes on
good corporate governance codes, standards and guidelines.
The Shareholders
Shareholders are the owners of the company and have certain rights namely:
• The right to attend and vote at General and Special Meetings of the company.
• However, there are some instances where the majority voting power have been
used to oppress minority rights.
The stakeholders including owners of the entity should define the entity’s objectives.
These guide the directors in conducting the affairs of the company
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• All the above stakeholders have one common interest with regard to the business
operation of the company, that is, its sustainability. “The shareholder who is happy
with the capital growth of his shares or his dividends wants to know that the
business is a sustainable one.
• The employee, who has employment and is able to support his family, wants to
know that his employment will continue.
• The suppliers obviously want the company which they supply to continue to be a
successful one.
• The local community in which the company carries on its business, offering men
and women in that community the opportunity to improve themselves, also wants
the company to be a sustainable one.
• Even the regulator who is content that the company is using its best endeavors to
comply not only with the letter but the spirit of the regulations, wants the company
to be sustainable.
Best managed companies are those that are aware of their corporate social
responsibilities, i.e. responsibilities towards all stakeholders and society as a whole.
Corporate social responsibility refers to business decision making linked to ethical values,
compliance with legal requirements and respect for people, communities and the
environment
5. Agency issues
Agency theory is used to understand the relationships between agents and principals.
The agent represents the principal in a particular business transaction and is expected
to represent the best interests of the principal without regard for self-interest.
The different interests of principals and agents may become a source of conflict, as some
agents may not perfectly act in the principal's best interests. The resulting
miscommunication and disagreement may result in various problems and discord within
companies. Incompatible desires may drive a wedge between each stakeholder and
cause inefficiencies and financial losses. This leads to the principal-agent problem.
The principal-agent problem occurs when the interests of a principal and agent conflict.
Companies should seek to minimize these situations through solid corporate policy.
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These conflicts present normally ethical individuals with opportunities for moral hazard.
Incentives may be used to redirect the behavior of the agent to realign these interests
with the principal's concerns.
Corporate governance can be used to change the rules under which the agent operates
and restore the principal's interests. The principal, by employing the agent to represent
the principal's interests, must overcome a lack of information about the agent's
performance of the task. Agents must have incentives encouraging them to act in unison
with the principal's interests. Agency theory may be used to design these incentives
appropriately by considering what interests motivate the agent to act. Incentives
encouraging the wrong behavior must be removed, and rules discouraging moral hazard
must be in place. Understanding the mechanisms that create problems helps businesses
develop better corporate policy.
To determine whether or not an agent acts in his or her principal’s best interest, the
standard of “Agency Loss” has emerged as a commonly-used metric. Strictly defined,
agency loss is the difference between the optimal results for the principal and the
consequences of the agent’s behavior. For example, when an agent routinely performs
with the principal’s best interest in mind, agency loss is zero. But the further an agent’s
actions diverge from the principal’s best interests, the greater the agency loss becomes.
• The agent and principal both hold similar interests of achieving the identical
income.
• The principal is mindful of the agent’s activities, so the principal has a keen
knowledge of the level of service he is receiving.
If neither of these events occurs, agency loss is likely to climb. Therefore, the chief
challenge involves persuading agents to prioritize their principal’s best interest while
placing their self-interest second. If done correctly, the agent will nurture their principal’s
wealth, while incidentally enriching their bottom lines.
Source: https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/031815/what-role-agency-theory-
corporate-governance.asp
Class exercise 1
Solution
Solution for this exercise will be provided in class by the lecturer
Page 10 of 72
CHAPTER 2: SHORT TERM FINANCIAL
PLANNING AND CURRENT ASSET
MANAGEMENT
1. EXPECTED OUTCOMES:
• Cash management
• Credit management
• Inventory management
• Current asset management
2. CASH MANAGEMENT
- Speculative motive
The need to hold cash in order to take advantage of opportunities that may arise.
- Precautionary motive
- Transaction motive
Page 11 of 72
Collection float Is generated by cheques received by the firm and entered in the
cash book but not yet cleared through the bank account.
Collection float therefore reduces cash available.
Net float Is the sum of disbursement and collection float. To a large
extent float is being eliminated or greatly reduced by electronic
data interchange (EDI), also called electronic funds transfer
(EFT).
Cash Is the practice of and procedures for moving cash from multiple
concentration banks into the firm’s main accounts.
Cash bulking Is the practice of adding together the balances in various bank
accounts controlled by a firm so that it can earn a higher rate of
interest.
Cash held in excess of a necessary minimum incurs an opportunity cost which is the
interest that could have been earned in the next most liquid use.
3. CREDIT MANAGEMENT
• The conditions under which a firm sells its goods for cash or credit.
• Deals with whether the firm will sell for cash or on credit.
• If credit is to be granted, the credit period and any cash or settlement discount that
may be offered.
Credit analysis - The process of determining the probability that customers will or
will not pay. Deciding who the firm should grant credit to.
Credit Period
• In SA, terms are normally calculated from statement date (month-end or some other
fixed date each month), but sometimes from invoice date (this is common in USA).
• Terms of 30 days from statement date means that effectively the customer receives
on average 45 days credit from date of purchase.
Page 12 of 72
• A major influence on the credit period is the buyer’s inventory period and operating
cycle. All other things being equal, the shorter these are, the shorter the credit period
need be.
Terms of Sale
• Indicate credit period and settlement discount (if any0 being offered to customers.
• Terms of 2.5 / 30, net 60 means customer receives 2.5% discount for payment within
30 days, or must pay the full amount within 60 days.
• Example: if the amount owing is R1000, terms of 2.5 / 30, net 60 means customer
must pay R1000 x (1 - .025) = R975 within 30 days or R1000 in 60 days.
• When the discount is offered, the credit is basically free for the discount period, and
the buyer effectively only pays for credit when the discount expires.
• The implicit interest rate for not taking discount is normally very high.
4. INVENTORY MANAGEMENT
Inventories often make up a significant portion of a firm’s assets and affect its operating
cycle, therefore it is important to set an effective inventory policy and manage inventories
correctly. Inventory management is an important specialty in its own right, and
purchasing, production and marketing management as well as financial management
have a role to play in inventory management.
Inventory Classification
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Work in progress (WIP) WIP is an unfinished product in the process of
manufacture.
Finished goods These are the products ready to dispatch or sell.
Consumable stores These are items purchased for use in the business which
are not used directly in the manufacture of finished
products.
Inventory Costs
A trade-off exists because carrying costs increase when inventory increases, and
shortage costs increase when inventory decreases. The basic goal of inventory
management is to minimize the sum of carrying and shortage costs.
5. ABC approach
ABC is a simple approach which involves separating inventory items according to value,
and monitoring the high value items more closely.
EOQ is the order level that will minimize the total cost of carrying and reordering inventory.
In the EOQ model it is assumed that inventory is used or sold at a steady rate, and when
used up is re-ordered and stock is replenished. EOQ is a best-known approach to
establishing an optimal level of inventory.
EOQ = 2DO
C/H
D = Annual quantity demand
O = Ordering cost per unit
C/H= Inventory carrying costs also called inventory holding costs
Safety stocks Safety stock is the minimum stock level a firm wishes to hold to
avoid running out. When stock reaches this level it is re-ordered.
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Re-order level Re-order level a time period elapses between ordering and
delivery of stock (lead time). Re-order level takes this into
account: it is the point at which stock is re-ordered so that during
the delivery period usage will bring the stock level down to safety
stock.
Just In Time (JIT) JIT is a philosophy which requires that inventories be minimized
Inventory by ordering only enough for usage to be delivered when it is
Management required to be used.
First In First Out FIFO is a system in which the first items entered are the first to
(FIFO) be removed.
Last In First Out LIFO is a system in which the last items entered are the first to
(LIFO) be removed.
Illustrative example 1: Cash management and EOQ
PART A
PART B
Required:
a. Calculate the economic order quantity.
b. Calculate the number of orders to be placed per year.
c. Calculate the annual ordering cost?
Solution
PART A
Page 15 of 72
3. Transaction motive
b) Opportunity costs
1. Disbursement is generated by the cheques issued by the firm which have been
entered in the firm’s cash book but not yet presented at the bank for payment.
2. Collection float is generated by cheques received by the firm and entered in the
cash book but not yet cleared through the bank account.
1. Bridge Loan
2. Trade credit
3. Bank overdraft
4. Business credit card
e) FIFO allows first in items to be issued first whereas LIFO allows last in items to be
issued first.
Solution
PART B
D 109 500
2. Annual orders = EOQ = = 234 orders
468
Resin is purchased in 50-liter drums, and 9 800 drums are used each year. Each
drum costs R350. The controller estimates that the cost of placing and receiving a
typical resin order is R158. The controller’s estimate of the annual cost of carrying
resin in inventory is R4.20 per drum plus R1 insurance cost. Further information that
relates to fiberglass surfboards is as follows:
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Lead time 10 to 15 working days
Average usage 25 drums per day
Minimum usage 10 drums per day
Maximum usage 15 drums per day
Required
If Sizwe orders 700 liters of resin in each order placed during the year. Calculate the
following:
a. Indicate economic order quantity from above
b. Annual cost of ordering
c. Annual carrying cost
Solution
= Annual demand/EOQ
= 9800/700
= 14 orders
= R2 212
= R1 820 √
Page 17 of 72
Statement of Comprehensive Income for the year ended 31 December 2022
R
Sales (70% is cash) 1 756 000 1 229 200
Cost of Sales (60%) (943 000) (565 800)
Gross profit 813 000 663 400
Depreciation (65 000) (65 000)
Profit before Interest and Tax 748 000 598 400
Interest (41 000) (41 000)
Profit before Tax 707 000
Tax (212 100)
Net profit after tax 494 900
Dividend paid 135 000
Retained profit 359 900
20.10 20.11
ASSETS R R
Non-current assets 450 000 492 000
Net plant and equipment 450 000 492 000
Required
You are required to calculate the Cash flow from assets for Bayside Ltd for 2022.
(Refer to the SOCI and SOFP above).
Page 18 of 72
Solution
Capital Spending
R
Ending net non-current assets 492 000
– Beginning net non-current assets 450 000
+ Depreciation 65 000
107 000
Page 19 of 72
CHAPTER 3: LONG TERM FINANCIAL
PLANNING AND GROWTH
1. EXPECTED OUTCOMES
• What is financial planning?
• Objectives of financial planning
• Financial planning models
Page 20 of 72
Source: V. Yearwood (Financial management 3 notes)
Illustrative example 1
PENDERERE COMPANY
INCOME STATEMENT
Required:
1.1 Generate a pro forma (projected) income statement
Solution
1.1
Present year % of sales Pro Forma
Sales 1 200 000 30 1 560 000
Costs (400 000) (400 000)
Profit before tax 800 000 1 160 000
Taxes (29%) (232 000) (336 400)
Net profit after Tax 568 000 823 600
Dividends (340 800)
Addition to retained profit 482 800
Illustrative example 2
The most recent financial statements for Tsikadzedu company are shown below:
Page 21 of 72
INCOME STATEMENT
R
Sales 3 000 000
Costs (1 950 000)
Profit before tax 1 050 000
Taxes (304 500)
Net profit 745 500
BALANCE SHEET
R
Equity 10 000 000
Long-term debt 4 000 000
Capital employed 14 000 000
• Net assets and costs are proportional to sales except for taxes and long-term debt
• Tsikadzedu company maintains a constant 50% dividend payout ratio.
• Next year’s sales are projected to increase by 10%.
Required:
2.1 What is the external financing needed
2.2 Revise your equity and liabilities section of the balance sheet after calculating the
required external finance
Solution
2.1
PRO FORMA INCOME STATEMENT
R
Sales 3 300 000
Costs (2 145 000)*
Profit before tax 1 155 000
Taxes (334 950)*
Net profit 820 050
Dividends 410 025
Add to retained profit 410 025
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PROF FORMA BALANCE SHEET
Equity (10 000 000 + 410 025) 10 410 025
Long-term debt 4 000 000
Capital employed 14 410 025
2.2
REVISED PROF FORMA BALANCE SHEET
Equity (10 000 000 + 410 025) 10 410 025
Long-term debt (4 000 000 + 1 000 975) 5 000 975
Capital employed 15 411 000
Illustrative example 3
The most recent financial statements for Bonaqua Ltd are shown below:
INCOME STATEMENT
R
Sales 3 000 000 / 0.95% R3 157 895 100%
Costs (1 950 000) (1 950 000)
Profit before tax 1 050 000 1 207 895
Taxes (304 500) 29% (350 290)
Net profit 745 500 857 605
BALANCE SHEET
R
Equity 10 000 000 10 000 000
Long-term debt 4 000 000
Capital employed 14 000 000
Page 23 of 72
Assume that in the above question all information stays the same, except: the company
is currently operating at only 95% of its fixed asset capacity
Required:
3.1 Calculate the full sales capacity
3.2 By what % can current sales increase to full capacity
3.3 Calculate fixed asset as a % of full capacity sales
3.3 What is the external financing needed if the company wants to operate in full sales
capacity?
3.4 Revise your equity and liabilities section of the balance sheet after calculating the
required external finance
Solution
Page 24 of 72
Fixed assets (300% of R3 157 895) 9 473 685
Net working capital (167% of sales) 5 273 685
Net assets 14 747 370
External finance required 747 370
3.4 Revised equity and liabilities section after required external finance
Page 25 of 72
CHAPTER 4: THE COST OF CAPITAL/Business
valuation
1. EXPECTED OUTCOME:
• The Importance of Calculating the Cost of Capital
• The Elements of the Cost of Capital
• The Risk-free Rate of Return
• Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) Basic Assumptions
• Weighted average cost of capital – Return on Equity
• The Dividend Growth (DG) Model Approach
• Advantages of the Dividend Growth Model
• Disadvantages of the Dividend Growth Model
• The Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM) Approach
• Advantages of the CAPM
• Disadvantages of the CAPM
• Price Earnings Ratio
• Market to Book Ratio
• Calculate and interpret the various methods used to value shares.
3. FINANCIAL GEARING
Financial gearing is the level of a company's debt related to its equity capital, usually
expressed in percentage form. Gearing is a measure of a company's financial leverage
and shows the extent to which its operations are funded by lenders versus shareholders.
High financial gearing means that a company places a heavily reliance on debt financing,
while low financial gearing means that the firm is heavily reliance on equity financing.
There are a number of methods of estimating cost of equity but we will use only two:
Dividend Growth Model and Security Market Line (SML).
Page 26 of 72
1. ORDINARY SHARES AND PREFERENCE SHARES
Ordinary Shares
Ordinary shares, a synonym of common shares, represent the basic voting shares of a
corporation. Holders of ordinary shares are typically entitled to one vote per share and
only receive dividends at the discretion of the company’s management.
Preference Shares
Preference shares, more commonly referred to as preferred stock, are shares of a
company’s stock with dividends that are paid out to shareholders before common stock
dividends are issued. If the company enters bankruptcy, preferred stockholders are
entitled to be paid from company assets before common stockholders. Most preference
shares have a fixed dividend, while common stocks generally do not.
• Convertible Preference Shares. The owner of these preference shares has the
option, but not the obligation, to convert his/her preference shares to ordinary shares
at some conversion ratio.
• Cumulative Preference Shares: If a company does not have the financial resources
to pay a dividend to the owners of its preference shares, then it still has the payment
liability, and cannot pay dividends to its common shareholders for as long as that
liability remains unpaid.
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• Par Value shares: Public companies attach a rand value, or par value, to each
class of share it issues. The business uses par value to record the shares issued
in the financial records. The actual price received for the stock usually includes an
amount greater than par value. The company records the amount received above
par value as additional paid in capital and this is known as share premium. Par
value never changes.
• Intrinsic Value shares: The intrinsic value of a stock is a price for the stock
based solely on factors inside the company. It eliminates the external noise
involved in market prices.
• Book Value shares: The book value of a share is the total value of the
company’s assets less the total value of its liabilities and then divided by the total
number of shares issued to ordinary shareholders.
• Market Value shares: Buyers and sellers determine the market value of
each share of stock through the prices they're willing to sell for or to pay for each
share.
I. Market value should be the present value of the future cash flows from the
share.
II. Problem is that future cash flows are uncertain, the share has no fixed maturity
and a required rate of return must be obtained.
III. Three different possibilities for future dividends exist;
There are a number of methods of estimating cost of equity but we will use only two:
➢ It allows for the fact that future dividends should grow if profits are re
invested and that shareholders are likely to value their shares according to their
future dividend’s expectations.
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Disadvantages of the Dividend Growth Model
➢ The DG method also assumes that the market value of the share is in equilibrium
so that the share price is correct.
➢ Although it allows for the fact that future dividends should grow if profits are
reinvested, and that shareholders are likely to value their shares according to their
future dividend expectations, it assumes that all shareholders behave in the same
way – which is improbable
Where no growth in dividends is expected in the future, we used the formula: Cost of
equity Ke = (D1/P0) + g.
Our calculation assumes that the market price of a share will be the discounted future
cash flows of revenues from that share, and on a constant growth rate in dividends. It is
sometimes called the ‘Gordon Growth model’. (DG Model)
So, for example, if we have a company with shares currently valued by the market at
R800 000, but with a nominal value of R500 000, last declared dividend 15% and an
expected growth rate of 5%, we would have for cost of equity: Re
We do not simply relate the 78,750 back to the nominal value of the shares, as we are
trying to find the expected return based on what owners would have to invest now, i.e.
the market value.
Example:
Estimating “g”
The text outlines a number of ways of estimating g. For the purposes of this course I will
expect you only to be able to estimate g by calculating the average of the % change over
the past number of years.
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1. Dividend Growth Model
Using the dividend growth model to determine the price of a share:
Po = Do x (1+g) = D1 ________
(Re – g) (Re – g)
4. Non-constant growth
Project cash flows for as long as dividends are expected not to grow at a constant
rate and determine the present value of these cash flows, and add the present
value of constant growth using the dividend model thereafter.
Rp = D / Po
Rp = Return on preference shares
D = Dividend
Po = Price of share
Page 30 of 72
Illustrative example 1: Share valuation
Shareholder D purchased shares in company S at a price of R78 per share two years
ago. At the end of the current financial year he received a dividend of R12 per share.
The company’s annual financial statements stated that dividends have increased at a
rate of 5% per annum and that future dividends are expected to continue to grow at
the same rate. Shareholder D has a required rate of return (ke) of 20%.
Required
Determine the value per share of Company S at the present time.
Solution
Dividend today = R12
Future dividend in one year’s time (D1) = R12 x 1.05 = R12.60
The dividend rate of required return = 20%
Shareholder Job purchased shares in Company YX at a price of R78 per share two
years ago. At the end of the current accounting cycle Job received a dividend of R12
per share.
The company’s annual financial statements stated that dividends have increased at a
rate of 5% pa and that future dividends are expected to continue to grow at the same
rate. Shareholder Job has a required rate of return (Ke) of 20%.
Solution
We need to determine the dividend in one year’s time (D 1) as well as all future dividends
to infinity.
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Where D1 = Dividend in 1 years’ time
Ke = Shareholder’s required return
g = Growth to infinity
Value = 12.6
(0.2 – 0.05)
= R84
Re = Rf + Be x (Rm -Rf)
Re = return on Equity
Rf = Risk free rate
Rm = Return on the Market
Be = Beta co-efficient
Page 32 of 72
• Results for individual shares which are greater than 1 imply a greater degree of
volatility
• Results which are less than 1 imply a lower degree of volatility.
• It should then be possible to predict what will happen to the return on a share if
there is a change in the market return.
Rd = i x (1 - t)
Rd = return on debt
i = Interest
1 = 100 %
T = tax
Rp = Do / Po
Rp = Return on preference shares
D = Dividend
Po = Price of share (Market price)
We = Weighting of Equity
Wp = Weighting of Preference shares
Wd = Weighting of Debt (Loan)
Taxes and the weighted average cost of capital
In analysing investments we are always concerned with the after tax cash flows;
accordingly we should be using after tax costs in calculating the cost of capital. As
dividends are not tax deductible there is no tax effect on the cost of equity either
preferences or ordinary equity. The interest on debt however is tax deductible. To the
extent then that this interest reduces a company's taxable income and therefore it's taxes
payable, the effective cost of this capital is reduced.
Page 33 of 72
The Importance of Calculating the Cost of Capital
➢ Benchmarking the firm’s return against similar firms in the industry.
➢ Assessing the value creation potential of new projects as compared to the
cost of capital.
➢ It is an important calculation to make as it forms the basis of calculating the value
of the firms
Solution
Re = Rf + βE (RM - Rf)
Re = 8% + 1, 4 (12% - 8%)
Re = 8% + 1,4 x 4% (BODMAS rule)
Re = 13, 6%
Exercise 1
The risk free rate of return is 5%
The expected market rate of return is 10%
The beta factor for the company share is 0.7
Required:
Calculate the expected return of the company shares.
Illustrative example 2
Nzuza Ltd has provided with the following information:
Number of shares issued 1 000
Nominal value of each share R2
Market price of each share R3
Last declared dividend 8%
Expected dividend growth 4%
Required:
Calculate the cost of equity (Re) using the DG Model
Solution
Step 1 = Current dividend = R2 x 0.08 (R2 X 8%/100%) =
= R0.16
Step 2 = D1
Growth rate is 4%
Page 34 of 72
D1 = D0 x g
= 0.16 x 1.04 R0.16 X 4%/100% = 0.0064 + 0.16 = R0.17
= 0.17
Re = R0.17 + 0,04
R3
Re = 9.67%
Illustrative example 3
Assume Peiko Ltd has the following capital structure (ignore reserves):
Equity : 5 000 000 R1 ordinary shares, market price currently R1, 70
Preference Shares : 2 000 000 @ R0.50 yielding 10%, market price currently R0.55
Debentures : 2 000 000, 15% debentures, issued at R1, 00, market price
currently R1.08
The company have paid a dividend of 20c per share last year and they expect dividends
to grow by 5%. The company tax is 30% pa.
Required:
1. Calculate their cost of capital, using the Dividend Growth Model as your basis for
valuing equity.
2. Rd = Pref, debenture, loan
3. WACC
Solution
Equity
Re= D1 + g
Po
0.2 x 5%/100% = 0.01 + 0.2 = 0.21
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= 0.20 (1 + 0, 05) + 0, 05 Workings [0,21/1,7 = 0,1235]
1,7
= 17,4%
Preference shares
= Do/Po X 100%
(dividends at present is 50c x 10% = 5c)
= R0, 05/R0,55 x 100%
= 9,1%
Rd = i x (1 - t)
9.1% x 70%
6.37%
Rd = i x (1 - t)
Debentures (debt) = 15 x (1-TC)
= 15% x 0, 7
= 10.5%
Rd = i x (1 - t)
Loans (debt)
= 12% x (1 – Tc]
= 12% X 0, 7
= 8,4%
First, we need to calculate the overall market value of these investments, by multiplying
the original values by the market price divided by the nominal value in each case, and
totaling.
Ordinary Shares: 5 000 000 x R1.7/R1 R8 500 000
Preference 2 000 000 x 0.55/0.50 R2 200 000
Debentures: 2 000 000 x1.08/R1 R2,160,000
Bank Loan: R1 000 000 R1,000,000
Total market value R13 860 000
Now let’s find the proportion of this total represented by each type of capital:
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Proportion
Equity: 8 500 000/13 860 000 = 0.6133
Preference: 2 200 000/13 860 000 = 0.1587
Debentures: 2 160 000/13 860 000 = 0.1558
Bank loan: 1 000 000/13 860 000 = 0.0722
1.0000
Exercise 2
Debentures R1 750 000 16% debentures, market price R110 (issued at R100).
The current and expected future rate of ordinary share dividend is 20%.
Required:
If the company tax rate is 33%, what is the weighted average cost of capital?
SOLUTION
Or D1/Re - g
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(R2 x 0.2)/R2.5 x 100%
R0.40/R2.5 X 100%
Re 16%
Pref-shares
Do/P0 x 100%
R0.12/R1.20 x 100%
10%
Rd = i x (1 – t)
Rd = 10% x (100% - 33%)
Re = 6.7%
Debentures = 16%
Rd = i x (1 – t)
Rd = 16% x (100% - 33%)
Rd = 10.72%
Loan = 15%
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DG model (Use shares to value the business)
Po
Re
CAPM = Considers both the required rate of return and market risk
(CAPM)
Re 20% 30%
Risk (5%) (15%)
15% 15%
Assets
ASSETS:
Non-current
Land and Buildings
Furniture
Fixed investments
Current
Inventory
Debtors
Cash
Total assets R5 000 000 R5 000 000
Equity:
Ordinary share capital 200 000 @R1 R200 000 R12 = 2 400 000
Undistributed profit R210 000
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PRICE EARNINGS RATIO (EPS)
This is a return that is attributable to ordinary shareholders (after allowing for payment of
interest on loans and debentures, taxes, and preference dividends).
Income statement
Sales
COS
Gross profit
Expenses
PBI&T
Interest
PBT
Tax
Net profit after tax 500 000
Pref dividends (250 000)
Earnings 250 000
Ordinary dividends (R40 000)
Retained profit 210 000
EPS
Earnings/Total No. of Ord shares issued
R250 000/200 000
R1.25
The ratio seeks to test the relationship between a share price (ordinary share) and its return.
1994 2020
Nominal Market (Po)
Price per share R1 R12
Market Value
Buyers and sellers determine the market value of each share of stock through the prices they're
willing to sell for or to pay for each share.
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Book value
The book value of a share is the total value of the company’s assets less the total value of its
liabilities and then divided by the total number of shares issued to ordinary shareholders.
Formula =
Market price per share VS Book value per share
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CHAPTER 5: DIVIDENDS AND DIVIDEND POLICY
1. EXPECTED OUTCOMES
• The Clientele Effect
• Dividend Policy
• Types of Dividends
• Real World Factors affecting a High Dividend Payout
• Practical Issues in respect of the Payment of Dividends
• Signaling
• The Dividend Decision
• The Residual Dividend Approach
• Share Repurchase: An alternative to Cash Dividends
• Share splits and scrip dividends
3. DIVIDEND POLICY
a. “A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush” If a dividend is declared, you are quite
certain of receiving it. This is not necessarily so for a capital gain.
c. The tax preference explanation. In South Africa, dividends and capital gains are
subject to capital gains tax (CGT). Because capital gains tax is delayed until the
shares are sold, investors may prefer capital gains to dividends.
d. The agency explanation: This theory states that if funds are retained in the
company, it may not always be used optimally. Paying larger dividends thus
reduces the internal cash flow subject to management discretion.
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Profit 500 000
Cash in the account R200 000
Terminology
Dividend: This is a payment made out of a company’s profits to its owners. Dividends
can be paid as cash or further shares.
Types of dividends
A regular cash dividend: This takes place once or twice a year. Once in mid-year if
earnings are already healthy. This is called an interim dividend. And one at year end. This
is called a final dividend.
Before paying dividends = Directors must ensure that the Co. is Going-Concern
= Co. must continue operating
Special Dividend: paid as a result of an unusual event, perhaps the sale of a part of the
business.
Homemade Dividends: if you don’t receive dividends you need, then you sell off a
portion of that investment (shares) to compensate for the shortfall in dividends not
received.
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Expected DIV R500
Example
If an investor expected a dividend of R5 000 at end of the year and R6 000 following year,
but only received R2 000 in year one, then the investor will sell shares to the value of
R3 000 to compensate for this loss in dividend. In the same way if an investor received
more than he expected in year one, then she may use the additional sum of dividends to
buy more shares in the company in order to compensate for a possible loss of dividend
next year.
SA Tax system
Progressive = The higher you earn, the higher you pay tax
Jaca Diya
Gross Salaries R50 000 R70 000
Dividends R20 000 R20 000
GROSS INCOME R70 000 R90 000
Tax 15% 20%
Taxes
Investors that are in high marginal tax brackets might prefer lower dividend payouts.
Flotation Costs
If the company has a high dividend payout, it will be using its cash to pay dividends
instead of investing in projects. If the company decides to issue new shares in order to
fund projects, one must know that there are costs associated with issuing new shares. If
the company had paid a lower dividend and used the cash on hand for projects, it could
have avoided at least some of the flotation costs.
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Tax and Other Benefits from High Dividends
Corporate investors
At least 70% of dividends received from other companies does not have to be included
in taxable income.
Signaling
Dividend signaling is a theory that suggests that a company announcement of an increase
in dividend payouts is an indication of positive future prospects.
It is noticeable that, in a hostile takeover bid, the target company often announces a
higher dividend level in its efforts to prevent its shareholders from accepting an offer from
a predator.
This is done after funding is set aside for projects that they wish to engage in.
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People
Decided to issue shares = 100 000 @R1 each
Equity:
Ordinary share capital 50 000@R1 each R50 000
Repurchase:
50 000 shares = refund 50 000 @R1
O L
Nyembe
Holds 1000 shares @R2 each R2000
Entitled to R5000 as a dividend
Scrip Dividends:
A scrip dividend is a dividend that is not paid out in cash. Shareholders are given
additional shares in lieu/Instead of their shareholding (Dividend). There are no cash flow
implications. What actually occurs is that funds are transferred from the distributable
reserves account to the share capital.
Illustrative Example 1
The owner’s equity accounts for Nonto Ltd are shown below:
• If Nonto Ltd shares sell currently for R25 per share and a 10% scrip dividend is
declared, how many new shares will be distributed?
• Show the effect on the equity accounts.
• If Nonto Ltd declared a 25% scrip dividend, how would the accounts change?
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Solution
Shares in hands of shareholders at present is 10 000.
New shares will amount to 1 000 (10 000 X10%)
Since the par value of the new shares is R1, the share premium per share is R24.
The total share premium is therefore:
Share premium on new shares = 1 000 X R24 = R24 000
Shareholders’ equity R
Ordinary share (R1 par value) (R10 000 +R1000 [1000 X R1) 11 000
Share premium (R24 x 1000 +180 000) 204 000
Retained profits 561 500
R776 500
Workings
Retained earnings = (R586 500 – R1000 – R24000)
R25
R1 - Share capital +
R24 - PREMIUM +
BUSINESS OWNER
Contributed (CAPITAL) R100 000 + R50 000 =R150 000
Transfer of R50 000 from one acc to another
PREF-DIVIDENDS (XXXXX)
RETAINED PROFIT
ORD DIVIDENDS (XXXX)
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CHAPTER 6: CAPITAL BUDGETING AND
PROJECT EVALUATION
1. EXPECTED OUTCOMES
• Steps in the Capital Budgeting Process
• Aims of Appraising Projects
• Types of Investment Projects
• Payback Period
• Advantages of the Payback Period
• Disadvantages of the Payback Period
• Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)/Average Accounting Return (AAR)
• Net Present Value (NPV)
2. CAPITAL BUDGET
This section relates to the capital budgeting decision, also called strategic asset
allocation. "An investment is worth undertaking if it creates value for its owners" (Firer,
p249). Techniques are introduced for analyzing capital investments to determine whether
or not they create value for the owners. For each technique you must understand:
a. Identify all possible investment alternatives. In this way due scrutiny and attention is
given to all possible options.
b. Determine the relevant cash flows associated with each of the possible investment
alternatives.
c. Determine the company’s cost of capital (this is discussed in greater detail in the
chapter headed Cost of Capital
d. Evaluate the various projects. Various investment appraisal methods are used in order
to test financial feasibility.
e. Make the investment decision. This is done when all project cash flows (inflows and
outflows) have been ascertained.
f. This is the final step and known as the follow up step. This means that every project
is evaluated in order to ensure value creation.
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4. TYPES OF INVESTMENT PROJECTS
Replacement or expansion
Independent projects: acceptance of one project does not affect acceptance of another
independent project – either or both may be accepted. Mutually exclusive projects:
acceptance of one means other cannot be accepted.
Divisible project may be split into number of separate parts, each capable of being
undertaken on its own. Indivisible project cannot be split – either whole project must be
undertaken or not at all.
5. CAPITAL RATIONING
• Normally firm will accept all projects which meet investment criteria
• May require additional funds leading to loss of control
• Sometimes top management imposes capital rationing on middle management as a
control, and to avoid excessive requests for funds.
To decide how to allocate rationed available funds, projects must be ranked in some way.
Using NPV or IRR as a basis for ranking does not take into account size of initial
investment, which is important under capital rationing
The difference between a firm’s future cash flows with a project and without the project is
relevant in making a decision whether or not to invest in the project. Any change in a
firm’s overall cash flow directly resulting from investment in a project is a relevant cash
flow. This means that all incremental cash flows resulting from the project are relevant.
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Stand-Alone Principle
Evaluation of a project is based on the project’s incremental cash flows. There is no need
to calculate all the cash flows of a firm, with and without the project; only the incremental
cash flows need be focused on.
Sunk Costs
Sunk cost is the type of cost that have already been paid or incurred, therefore cannot be
changed and will not lead to incremental cash flows. Therefore, must not be considered
in investment decisions.
Opportunity Costs
Opportunity costs refer to benefits that must be given up as a result of taking on the
project. They results in a reduction in overall cash flow as result of the project (incremental
cash flow is negative or a cash outflow).
Unless all transactions are cash (unlikely), any new project will have an operating and
cash cycle. This means that a firm will have to invest in net working capital for the project,
as well as fixed assets. NWC requirements may increase as the project progresses, and
then start to reduce towards the end of the project, finally decreasing to zero at the end
of the project.
NB: A project can only be considered complete when all assets have been scrapped or
disposed of, and all NWC converted to cash.
Financing costs such as interest or dividends paid must not be included in project cash
flows, because these are rewards to providers of capital and are not generated by the
assets / operations of the project. The tax effect of interest paid must also not be
considered.
Inflation
Effects of expected inflation on future cash flows should be allowed for, because investors
will have included an expectation of inflation in their required rate of return.
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Tax Effects
The after-tax cash flows must be determined. This requires determining both the amount
of tax that results from the profits earned by the project, and the timing of the resulting tax
payments.
Any incentives received from government or other organizations, in the form of grants,
capital allowances, tax credits, etc. must be taken into account.
Working from estimates of future sales, costs, and investments for the life of the project,
projected income statements and balance sheets are prepared, for the entire project, and
at convenient points during the project, e.g. annually. Statements should be in
summarized form, including only data relevant to the project. The projected income
statements should include depreciation so that tax can be calculated, but not interest /
dividends. Balance sheet would only comprise the Employment of Capital (Net Assets)
section.
From these pro-forma statements, the project cash flows can be determined, in the same
way that cash flow for the entire firm is calculated. Project Operating Cash Flow = Project
Profit Before Interest & Tax + Depreciation – Tax. Project Cash Flow = OCF +/– Changes
in NWC – Net Fixed Asset Purchases. From this the total project cash flow for each year
can be calculated and discounted back to net present value, using the required rate of
return, which may be the firm’s weighted average cost of capital, or some other specified
rate. If necessary, another method of evaluating the project may be used, such as
payback period, discounted payback period, average accounting return, or internal rate
of return.
• Depreciation
Depreciation is a non-cash item, but affects cash flow because it is allowable as deduction
in calculating tax. This is called the depreciation tax shield. Because we are only
concerned with the tax effect of depreciation, the amount of depreciation included in the
project income statement should only be that which SARS will allow as Wear and Tear
(SARS' term for depreciation). Where an asset has been depreciated and is later sold for
more than its book value (initial cost less accumulated depreciation), tax will have to be
paid on the profit thus earned. This must be taken into account in calculating the project
cash flow.
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8. INVESTMENT CRITERIA
NPV is the difference between an investment's market value and its cost.
Basic decision rule: "An investment should be accepted if NPV is positive and rejected
if it is negative”.
Advantages of NPV
Disadvantages of NPV
• Can be time-consuming
• Requires a required rate of return to be given or estimated
• Risk differences between projects are not considered
Discount rate
A discount rate is used to determine present values; an appropriate discount rate must
be used, which is usually the rate of return which the firm wants to earn on its investments,
or the market rate on comparable investments.
Payback period is the amount of time required for an investment to generate cash flows
to cover its initial cost.
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Method of calculating payback period
Decision rule: An investment is acceptable if its calculated payback period is less than
the prescribed number of years.
Discounted Payback Period is the time required for an investment's discounted cash flows
to equal its initial cost.
• Similar to the normal payback criterion, but it takes time value of money into
account.
AAR is the average net profit after tax of an investment divided by its average book
value.
Calculation Method
• Determine the accounting investment value ("book value of assets") at the beginning
and end of each period over the life of the project.
• Determine the expected accounting profits for each period over the life of the
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investment. Accounting profits are usually calculated as operating cash flow (cash
profit after tax) less depreciation.
• Calculate average accounting profit and average investment value over life of
investment. This is normally a simple average.
• Calculate AAR by dividing average accounting profit by average investment value.
Calculation Methods
• Estimate cash flows over life of investment as for the NPV method.
• Then determine NPV of cash flows using different discount rates, until an NPV of
zero is obtained. The discount rate that gives this zero NPV will be the IRR.
• Interpolation
Estimate cash flows and determine several NPV's as above. It selects two discount rates,
one which gives the lowest positive NPV and one which gives the lowest negative NPV.
• Graphical
• Follow the steps as above, and plot the discount rates and NPV's on a graph.
• Where the NPV line crosses the axis is where NPV = 0, therefore this is the IRR.
Decision Rule - if IRR exceeds required or market rate of return then investment is
acceptable.
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Advantages
Disadvantages
While the internal rate of return (IRR) assumes the cash flows from a project are
reinvested at the IRR, the modified IRR assumes that positive cash flows are reinvested
at the firm's cost of capital, and the initial outlays are financed at the firm's financing cost.
Therefore, MIRR more accurately reflects the cost and profitability of a project.
Illustrative Example 1
An initial outlay of R2 200 is required and cash inflows of R600 and R900 accrue in years
1 and 2 respectively.
Required:
Based on the payback period, should the project be accepted or not? Use both non-
cumulative and cumulative cash flow methods to support your response.
Solution
Non-cumulative method
Year Cash inflow (p.a) Cash outflow Balance
1 R600 -R2 200 -R1 600
2 R900 -R1 600 -R700
R1 400 -R700 (paid in full) R700
• The company will not be able to pay the initial cost even up to the last day of the
project.
• To calculate the exact period, we need to make an important assumption: that revenue
is earned equally throughout the period. A workable formula is:
= years before full recovery + unrecovered cash flow at beginning of year X 365
Cash flow during the year
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Our answer therefore is
= 2 years + [700/1400 X 365]
= 2 Years and 182.5 days
Cumulative method
Year Cash flow (p.a) Accumulated Cash Flow
1 R600 R600 balance
2 R900 R1 500 balance
3 R1 400 -R700
• The company will not be able to pay the initial cost even up to the last day of the
project.
Illustrative example 2
Gabbazy enterprise have just made an investment of R420 000 in a state of the art wheel
alignment machine, details of which are below:
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Solution
2.1
Year Cash Flow Cumulative Cash Flow Non-cumu..
0 (R420 000)
1 66 000 66 000 (354000)
2 96 000 162 000 (258000)
3. 126 000 288 000 (132000)
4. 181 000 469 000 (stop)
5. 68 000
6. 50 000
Payback is: 3 years and [132 000/181 000 X 365]
3 years and 7 months
3 years and 266, 18 days (You may round off to 267 days)
2.2
Advantages of the Payback Period
• It is easy to understand and calculate.
• It adjusts for uncertainty of later cash flows.
• It serves as a criterion to measure liquidity, because the quicker the initial investment
is paid off, the earlier the generated cash is available for alternate use.
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The Formula
Illustrative example 1
Gabbazy enterprise have just made an investment of R420 000 in a state of the art wheel
alignment machine, details of which are below:
Solution
1.1
Since net cash inflows do not take depreciation into account, we still have to take it out
from Net cash inflows.
Why?
=Net profit (Accounting profit)
=Subtract depreciation from net cash inflows
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Year Cash inFlows
R
1 66 000
2 96 000
3 126 000
4 181 000
5 68 000
6 50 000
Net cash inflows 587 000
Net cash inflows R587 000 – R300 000 = R287 000/6 = R47 833
OR
= R47 833
ARR = 11.39%
=Not sure
Unless I know Co. target
It is not acceptable
1.2
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Advantages of the ARR
• It is relatively easy to calculate
• Data that’s needed is easily available in the annual financial statements
Illustrative example 2
Messi Motors have just made an investment of R420 000 in a state of the art wheel
alignment machine, details of which are below: Expected useful life 6 years (straight line
depreciation)
Salvage value 120 000
Cost of Capital 10 %
Tax rate 30%
Expected cash inflows are as follows:
Year Cash Flows
R
0 (420 000) Planning phase (Acquire needed resources)
1 66 000
2 96 000
3 126 000
4 181 000
5 68 000
6 50 000
Required:
Calculate the NPV of this project and state whether the project should be accepted or
rejected.
1/(1 + i)t
1/(1 + 0.1)1
1/1.1= 0.9090=0.8264=0.7513=0.6830=
Solution
CoC
Year Cash Flows DF (10%) Discounted Cash Flow
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2 96 000 X 0.8264 79 334
3. 126 000 X 0.7513 94 664
4. 181 000 X 0.6830 123 623
5 68 000 X 0.6209 42 221
6 50 000 X 0.5645 28 225
120 000 X 0.5645 67 740
PV 495 808 CASH INFLOWS
NPV 75 808
The project should be accepted as NPV is positive.
Should the Co. set a target = then should consider that the target in your decision
Notes
a. The PVIF tables are used at a factor of 10%.
b. The factors can be worked out using the formula PV = 1/(1+r)t
c. Cash flows must be after tax. If it is before tax, it must be converted to after tax.
Advantages of NPV
1. It accounts for the time value of money.
2. It is logically consistent with the company’s goal of maximising shareholder wealth.
3. It is relatively easy to calculate.
4. It uses all the cash flows of a project and discounts them consistently.
5. It is realistic in outlook.
Disadvantages of NPV
1. Fixed assumptions are made around the variables affecting project cash flows such
as: exchange rates, selling prices, inflation.
2. NPV’s major problem is that it relies crucially on predicting the future.
Messi Motors have just made an investment of R100 000 in a state-of-the-art wheel
alignment machine, details of which are below: Expected useful life is 2 years (straight
line depreciation)
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Required:
2.1 Define the term ‘IRR’.
2.2 Calculate IRR for the company.
Solution
2.1 IRR definition
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) is the discount rate that makes the net present value (NPV)
of a project zero.
2.2
Step 1 = Current NPV is R7 570 and is positive
Step 2 = Guess a rate that will make NPV zero
Step 3 = If NPV is positive then try the higher rates, if negative try lower rates
Therefore, IRR is between 36% and 37% and it can be calculated as follows:
Exercise 1
Part A
R Ltd is deciding whether to launch a new product. The initial outlay for the new
product is R18 000. The forecast possible annual cash inflows and their associated
probabilities are shown below:
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Assume the cash inflows are received at the end of the year and that the cash inflows
each year are independent.
A (R165)
B (R582)
C (R5 660)
D R10 430
E R22 286
In order to be able to calculate the NPV, we must first calculate the expected cash flow
at the end of each of the three years.
PART B
A company is appraising an investment project which has the following expected cash
flows:
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Year Cash inflow DF@8% Discounted Cash Flow
1 5 280 x .9259 =
2 5 280 x .8573 =
3 5 280 x .7938 =
4 5 280 x .7350 =
3.312
5 12 320 .6806
6 12 320 .6302
7 12 320 .5835
8 12 320 .5403
2.4346
Reminder:
Do still remember time value of money techniques?
=PV single investment
=PVA repetitive investments (Annuities)
Project Project
Malaki Matthew
Page 64 of 72
The company estimates that its cost of capital is 12%. Depreciation is calculated on
a straight-line basis.
REQUIRED:-
2.1 Calculate the Net Present Value of each project (NPV). (Round off amounts to
the nearest Rand)
2.2 Based on your calculations in question 1, which project should be chosen? Why?
2.3 Calculate the Payback Period for project Malaki using the discounted profit per
year? (non-cumulative method)
2.4 Calculate the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for project Malaki.
2.1
Malaki
Years Net profit DF@12% Discounted profits
Year 0 (R20 000) 1 (R20 000)
Year 1 (20 000) 0.8929 (17 858)
Year 2 5000 0.7972 3 986
Year 3 10 000 0.7118 7 118
Year 4 60 000 0.6355 38 130
Year 5 70 000 0.5674 39 718
PV 71 094
NPV 51 094
Matthew
Years Net profit DF@12% Discounted profits
Year 0 (R200 000) 1 (R20 000)
Year 1 18 000 0.8929 16 072
Year 2 18 000 0.7972 14 350
Year 3 18 000 0.7118 12 812
Year 4 18 000 0.6355 11 439
Year 5 18 000 0.5674 10 213
PV 64 886
NPV 44 886
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Workings
PV = R64 886 (18000 x 3.6048)
Cost = (R20 000)
NPV = R44 886
2.2 Based on your calculations in question 1, which project should be chosen? Why?
Which one is to be chosen?
Malaki project = R51 094
Matthew project = R44 886
The company criteria for project selection is NPV
The rule is that if NPV is positive, it can be accepted with exceptions and if it is
negative we reject.
Decision: Accept project Malaki.
Why?
Malaki has the positive and highest NPV compared to Matthew.
2.3 Calculate the Payback Period for project Malaki using the discounted profit per
year? (non-cumulative method)
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However, if it was required, you would answer as follows:
Decision:
Initial cost will be recovered within 1.5 years before the end of the project
Therefore, the project should be accepted with an exception of the company’s payback
target period.
Cumulative
Years Amounts Balance Period
0 (R20 000)
1 (17 858) (17 858) 1
2 3 986 1 844
3 7 118
4 38 130
5 39 718
2.4 Calculate the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) for project Malaki.
What is IRR?
Is the rate that makes NPV zero
What is NPV for Malaki?
(R128 906)
What was the used?
12%
Since NPV is negative, how should be we calculate IRR – Trial and Error rule?
When we use 40% NPV is slightly positive and if use 40% it is slightly negative
We cannot move either up or down at this point.
This means that IRR is between 40% and 41%
Therefore, IRR can be calculated as follows:
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CHAPTER 7: RISK AND RETURN
1. EXPECTED OUTCOMES
• What are investing decisions?
• What is the process involved in investment decisions?
• What are the factors taken into account when making investment decisions?
• Investment decisions
e. Investment decision
• Best possible option
f. Financing options
• Funding alternatives
1. Cost of investment
2. Return of the investment
3. Risk (chances of not receiving the planned return)
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4. HOW IS THE EXPECTED RETURN ESTIMATED?
• It is based on estimated returns (similar investment & conditions)
• Is based on probability (changes that desired outcomes will be achieved)
• Is based on forecasting techniques
• Is based on assumptions made
• Is based on historical data – trend analysis
Illustrative example 1
Required:
Calculate the expected return for 2019
Solution
Assumption
Similar conditions will continue in future
Therefore, it can be forecasted that 2019 = 24% (21% + 3%)
Illustrative example 2
Required:
Calculate the expected return for 2019
Solution
Before you answer, ask yourself the following:
What was the cause for drop in 2017?
If 2017 was abnormal year = therefore exclude this year from the analysis
Therefore, 2019 = 21% (18% + 3%)
Exercise 1
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Return 12% 20% 16% 18% ?
Required:
Calculate the expected return for 2019
Page 70 of 72
5. OTHER FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
• Time series analysis
• Regression analysis
• Probabilities (Changes that desired outcomes will be achieved)
• Estimated returns
Illustrative example 3
Prob Return
Condition 1 30% 22%
Condition 2 45% 26%
Condition 3 15% 28%
Condition 4 10% 30%
100%
Required:
Calculate the expected return
Solution
Prob Return Expected return
Condition 1 30% x 22% 6.6%
Condition 2 45% x 26% 11.7%
Condition 3 15% x 28% 4.2%
Condition 4 10% x 30% 3.0%
Expected return (Weighted average) 25.5%
6. INVESTMENT DECISIONS
Illustrative example 4
Investment A B C
Maximum return 45% 16% 27%
Minimum return 28% 17% 22%
Fluctuation/risk 34% 2% 11%
The financial manager stated that the investment decisions must be based only on the
expected return.
Required:
a. Comment of the statement made by the financial manager
b. Indicate which investment has the lowest risk
c. Calculate coefficient for each of the investments
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Solution
a.
Basis of making investment decision
-Prioritise based on risks and return
Prioritisation
-Maximise returns & minimise risks (coefficient)
-Risks affects the actual return that will be received
-Level of fluctuation vs risk appetite
Basis of making investment decision
: Investment cost
: Return
: Risk
Therefore, F/M is incorrect
b.
A B C
Risk High Low Moderate
c.
How is it calculated?
A B C
Return 28% 17% 22%
Decision:
Select best investment
Return 1 3 2
Risk 3 1 2
Co-efficient 3 1 2
Best
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Exercise 1
Nozi Ltd has the following data
Investment options A B C D
Expected return (which is also average) 25% 17% 13% 20%
Risk (variance/fluctuations) 8.4% 4.9% 1.6% 5.9%
Minimum return (expected return – fluctuation) 16.6% 12.6% 11.4% 14.1%
Required:
a. Calculate the maximum return for all the investments
b. Calculate coefficient for each of the investments
c. Prepare an investment prioritization schedule that will assist Nozi Ltd management to
make informed decisions.
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