Stock Market Briefing:

S&P 500/400/600
Weekly Fundamentals
Yardeni Research, Inc.

December 14, 2023

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com

Joe Abbott
732-497-5306
jabbott@yardeni.com

Please visit our sites at

www.yardeni.com
blog.yardeni.com

thinking outside the box

Table Of Contents Table Of Contents
S&P 500/400/600 Annual Earnings 3
S&P 500/400/600 Annual Revenues 4
S&P 500/400/600 Annual Margins 5
S&P 500 Annual & Quarterly Earnings 6
S&P 400 Annual & Quarterly Earnings 7
S&P 600 Annual & Quarterly Earnings 8
S&P 500/400/600 2023 Quarterly Earnings 9
S&P 500/400/600 2023 Quarterly Y/Y Earnings Growth 10
S&P 500/400/600 Indexes & Forward Earnings 11-12
S&P 500/400/600 P/Es 13
S&P 500/400/600 P/Sales 14
S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 15-16
S&P 400 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 17
S&P 600 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins 18
S&P 500/400/600 Blue Angels 19
S&P 500 Forward Revenues & Earnings 20-21
S&P 500/400/600 Annual Earnings Squiggles 22
S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward Earnings 23
S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, Margins 24-26

December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 S&P 500/400/600 Annual Earnings
Figure 1.
300 300

250
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE 24
250
(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 23 12/7

200 200

Consensus Forecasts
150 Annual Earnings 150
Forward Earnings*

100 100

2023 2024 Frwd

Nov 23 220.85 245.98 243.56
Nov 30 220.79 245.75 243.83
50 50
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

235 24 235
205 S&P 400 205
23 12/7
175 175
145 Consensus Forecasts 145
Annual Earnings
115 115
Forward Earnings*

85 85

55 55

2023 2024 Frwd

Nov 23 172.03 191.15 189.31
Nov 30 171.94 190.86 189.40
25 25
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

130 130
110 24 110
S&P 600
23 12/7
90 90

70 Consensus Forecasts 70
Annual Earnings
Forward Earnings*
50 50

30 30

2023 2024 Frwd

Nov 23 84.91 91.99 91.31
Nov 30 85.06 91.86 91.34
yardeni.com
10 10
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year.

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

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 S&P 500/400/600 Annual Revenues
Figure 2.
1950 1950
24 12/7
1800
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE 1800
(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)
23
1650 1650

1500 1500

1350 1350

1200 1200

Consensus Forecasts
1050 Annual Revenues 1050
Forward Revenues*

900 900
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2500 2500
2250 24 2250
S&P 400 12/7
2000 2000
23
1750 1750

1500 1500

1250 1250

1000 1000

Consensus Forecasts
Annual Revenues
750 750
Forward Revenues*

500 500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

1550 1550
24
1350 S&P 600 12/7 1350
23
1150 1150

950 950

750 750

550 Consensus Forecasts 550

Annual Revenues
Forward Revenues*

yardeni.com
350 350
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Time-weighted average of consensus revenue estimates for current and next year.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

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 S&P 500/400/600 Annual Margins
Figure 3.
15 15
S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN
14 14
(using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) 23 24
13 13
12/7
12 12

11 11

10 10

9 Consensus Forecasts 9
Annual Margins
8 Forward Margins* (12.8) 8

7 7

6 6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

10 10
S&P 400
23 24
9 9

12/7
8 8

7 7

6 6
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Margins
5 5
Forward Margins* (8.3)

4 4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

9 9
S&P 600
8 23 8

24
7 7

12/7
6 6

5 5

4 4
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Margins
3 3
Forward Margins* (6.3)
2 2

yardeni.com
1 1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor’s.

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 S&P 500 Annual & Quarterly Earnings
Figure 4.
275 275
24
250 S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE 12/7 250
(analysts’ consensus estimates, dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 23
225 225

200 200

175 175
Consensus Forecasts
Annual
150 150
Lehman Forward*
Collapse
125 125
Covid

100 100

75 75

2023 2024 Frwd

Nov 23 220.85 245.98 243.56
Nov 30 220.79 245.75 243.83
yardeni.com
50 50
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Time-weighted average of analysts’ consensus estimates for S&P 500 operating earnings for current year and next year.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Note: Lehman collapsed 9/15/2008. COVID-19 = WHO declares global pandemic on 3/11/2020.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 5.
70 70
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE:
QUARTERLY CONSENSUS FORECASTS 2023
(analysts’ consensus estimates, dollars, weekly)

65 2023 By Quarter as of 11/30/23 65

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Nov 23 53.27 54.49 58.20 55.15
Nov 30 53.27 54.49 58.20 55.12

60 60

Q3

55 Q4 55
Q2
Q1

yardeni.com
50 50
I II III IV I II III IV I II
2022 2023 2024
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

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 S&P 400 Annual & Quarterly Earnings
Figure 6.
250 250
225 S&P 400 MIDCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE* 24 225
200 (consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 200
12/7
23
175 175

150 Consensus Forecasts 150

Annual
125 52-Week Forward* 125

100 100

75 75

50 50

2023 2024 Frwd

Nov 23 172.03 191.15 189.31
Nov 30 171.94 190.86 189.40
yardeni.com
25 25
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 7.
60 60
S&P 400 MIDCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2023
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)

55 2023 By Quarter as of 11/30/23 55

Q4
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q3
Nov 23 43.20 44.51 44.15 42.00
Q2 Nov 30 43.20 44.51 44.16 41.92
50 50

Q1
45 45

40 40

35 35
I II III IV I II III IV I II
2022 2023 2024
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 7 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 S&P 600 Annual & Quarterly Earnings
Figure 8.
130 130
115 S&P 600 SMALLCAP OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE* 24 115
100 (consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 100
23
12/7
85 85
Consensus Forecasts
70 Annual 70
52-Week Forward*
55 55

40 40

25 25

2023 2024 Frwd

Nov 23 84.91 91.99 91.31
Nov 30 85.06 91.86 91.34
yardeni.com
10 10
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 9.
35 35
S&P 600 SMALLCAP EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2023
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)

2023 By Quarter as of 11/30/23

30 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 30
Nov 23 21.27 21.73 20.44 20.10
Q4 Nov 30 21.27 21.73 20.43 20.07
Q3
Q2

25 25
Q1

20 20

15 15
I II III IV I II III IV I II
2022 2023 2024
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 8 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 S&P 500/400/600 2023 Quarterly Earnings
Figure 10.
75 75
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE: CONSENSUS QUARTERLY ESTIMATES 2023
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly)
70 70

2023 By Quarter as of 11/30/23

Q4
65 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 65
Q3 Nov 23 53.27 54.49 58.20 55.15
Nov 30 53.27 54.49 58.20 55.12
Q2
60 60
Q1

55 55

50 50
I II III IV I II III IV I II
2022 2023 2024
60 60
S&P 400

55
Q4 2023 By Quarter as of 11/30/23 55
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Q3
Nov 23 43.20 44.51 44.15 42.00
Q2 Nov 30 43.20 44.51 44.16 41.92
50 50

Q1
45 45

40 40

35 35
I II III IV I II III IV I II
2022 2023 2024
35 35
S&P 600
2023 By Quarter as of 11/30/23
30 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 30
Q4 Nov 23 21.27 21.73 20.44 20.10
Q3 Nov 30 21.27 21.73 20.43 20.07
Q2

25 25
Q1

20 20

yardeni.com
15 15
I II III IV I II III IV I II
2022 2023 2024
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 9 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 S&P 500/400/600 2023 Quarterly Y/Y Earnings Growth
Figure 11.
25 25
S&P 500 CONSENSUS QUARTERLY Y/Y EPS GROWTH 2023
20 (consensus analysts’ estimates in percent, weekly) 2023 By Quarter as of 11/30/23 20
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
15 Nov 23 -2.8 -6.0 3.8 3.7 15
Nov 30 -2.8 -6.0 3.8 3.7
10 10

5 5
Q3
Q4

0 0
Q1
-5 -5
Q2

-10 -10

-15 -15
I II III IV I II III IV I II
2022 2023 2024
20 20
S&P 400
2023 By Quarter as of 11/30/23
10 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 10
Nov 23 -7.2 -18.7 -7.8 -6.8
Nov 30 -7.2 -18.7 -7.7 -7.0

0 0

Q4
Q1
Q3
-10 -10

Q2
-20 -20

-30 -30
I II III IV I II III IV I II
2022 2023 2024
30 30
S&P 600
20 20
2023 By Quarter as of 11/30/23
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
10 Nov 23 -3.0 -15.3 -12.1 -7.1 10
Nov 30 -3.0 -15.3 -12.2 -7.2

0 0
Q1
Q4
-10 -10
Q3
Q2
-20 -20

yardeni.com
-30 -30
I II III IV I II III IV I II
2022 2023 2024
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 10 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 S&P 500/400/600 Indexes & Forward Earnings
Figure 12.
5750 5750
4950 S&P 500/400/600 STOCK PRICE INDEXES 12/13 4950
4150 (daily, ratio scale) 4150
3350 3350

2550 2550

1750 1750

950 950

S&P Stock Price Indexes

S&P 500 (4707.09)
S&P 400 (2706.73)
S&P 600 (1265.38)

yardeni.com
150 150
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 13.
290 290
250 S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD EARNINGS 12/7 250
210 (dollars per share, ratio scale, weekly) 210
170 170

130 130

90 90

50 50

Forward Earnings*
S&P 500 (244.44)
S&P 400 (189.85)
S&P 600 (91.26)

yardeni.com
10 10
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 11 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 S&P 500/400/600 Indexes & Forward Earnings
Figure 14.
2375 2375
2075 S&P 500/400/600 FORWARD REVENUES 2075
(dollars per share, ratio scale) 12/7
1775 1775

1475 1475

1175 1175

Dec
875 875

575 575
Forward Revenues*
S&P 500 (1900)
S&P 400 (2217)
S&P 600 (1368)

yardeni.com
275 275
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 15.
14 14
S&P FORWARD PROFIT MARGINS*
13 (using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) 13
12/7

12 12

11 11

10 10
Forward Profit Margins*
9 S&P 500 (12.8) 9
S&P 400 (8.3)
8 S&P 600 (6.3) 8

7 7

6 6

5 5

4 4

3 3
yardeni.com
2 2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year using forward earnings divided by forward revenues.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor’s.

Page 12 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 S&P 500/400/600 P/Es
Figure 16.
28 28
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P INDEXES*
26 (weekly) 26

24 24
S&P 500 LargeCap (18.8)
22 S&P 400 MidCap (13.9) 22
S&P 600 SmallCap (13.4)
20 20
12/8
18 18

16 16

14 14

12 12

10 10

yardeni.com
8 8
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 17.
28 28
FORWARD P/E RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*
26 (daily) 26

24 24
S&P Forward P/Es
22 S&P 500 (19.3) 22
S&P 400 (14.6)
20 S&P 600 (1302.2) 20
12/14

18 18

16 16

14 14

12 12

10 10

yardeni.com
8 8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Blue shaded areas are correction declines of 10% to less than 20%.
Yellow areas are bull markets.
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 13 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 S&P 500/400/600 P/Sales
Figure 18.
3.0 3.0
FORWARD P/SALES RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*
2.8 (weekly) 2.8
S&P 500 LargeCap (2.39)
2.6 S&P 400 MidCap (1.18) 2.6
S&P 600 SmallCap (0.88)
2.4 12/7 2.4

2.2 2.2

2.0 2.0

1.8 1.8

1.6 1.6

1.4 1.4

1.2 1.2

1.0 1.0

.8 .8

.6 .6
yardeni.com
.4 .4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected revenues per share.

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 19.
3.00 3.00
FORWARD P/SALES RATIOS FOR S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES*
(daily)
2.75 2.75
S&P 500 LargeCap (2.48)
2.50 S&P 400 MidCap (1.25) 2.50
12/14
S&P 600 SmallCap (0.95)
2.25 2.25

2.00 2.00

1.75 1.75

1.50 1.50

1.25 1.25

1.00 1.00

.75 .75

yardeni.com
.50 .50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Daily stock price index divided by 52-week forward consensus expected revenues per share.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Page 14 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins
Figure 20.
1950 1950
24 12/7
1800
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE 1800
(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)
23
1650 1650

1500 1500

1350 1350

1200 1200

Consensus Forecasts
1050 Annual Revenues 1050
Forward Revenues*

900 900
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

300 300

250
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE 24
250
(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 23 12/7

200 200

150 150

100 100
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Earnings
Forward Earnings*

50 50
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

15 15
S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN
14 14
(using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) 23 24
13 13
12/7
12 12

11 11

10 10

9 Consensus Forecasts 9
Annual Margins
8 Forward Margins* (12.8) 8

7 7
yardeni.com
6 6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor’s.

Page 15 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 S&P 500 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins
Figure 21.
1950 1950
12/7
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE
1800 1800
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)
1650 1650

1500 1500

1350 1350

1200 1200

1050 Consensus Forecasts 1050

Forward Revenues*

900 900
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

300 300
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE
250 12/7 250
(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale)
200 200

150 150

100 100
Consensus Forecasts
Forward Earnings*

50 50
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

14 14
S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN
13 (using analysts’ average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) 12/7
13

12 12

11 11

10 10

9 9
Consensus Forecasts
Forward Margins* (12.8)
8 8

7 7

yardeni.com
6 6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor’s.

Page 16 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 S&P 400 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins
Figure 22.
2500 2500
2250 24 2250
S&P 400 12/7
2000 2000
23
1750 1750

1500 1500

1250 1250

1000 1000

Consensus Forecasts
Annual Revenues
750 750
Forward Revenues*

500 500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

240 240
24
210 S&P 400 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE 210
(consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 23 12/7
180 180
150 150

120 120

90 90

60 Consensus Forecasts 60
Annual Earnings
Forward Earnings*

30 30
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

10 10
S&P 400 PROFIT MARGIN
(using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) 23 24
9 9

12/7
8 8

7 7

6 6

Consensus Forecasts
5 Annual Margins 5
Forward Margins* (8.3)
yardeni.com
4 4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor’s.

Page 17 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 S&P 600 Revenues, Earnings, & Margins
Figure 23.
1550 1550
24
1400 S&P 600 REVENUES PER SHARE 12/7 1400
1250 (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 23 1250
1100 1100

950 950

800 800

650 650

500 500
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Revenues
Forward Revenues*
350 350
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

120 120
24
105 S&P 600 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE 105
23
90 (consensus analysts estimates in dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 12/7 90
75 75

60 60

45 45

30 30
Consensus Forecasts
Annual Earnings
Forward Earnings*

15 15
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

9 9
S&P 600 PROFIT MARGIN
8 (using analysts average earnings and sales forecasts, percent) 23 8

24
7 7

12/7
6 6

5 5

4 4

3
Consensus Forecasts 3
Forward Margins* (6.3)
Annual Margins
2 2

yardeni.com
1 1
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv and Standard & Poor’s.

Page 18 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 S&P 500/400/600 Blue Angels
Figure 24.
6000 6000
x24
5500 S&P STOCK PRICE INDEXES, FORWARD EARNINGS, & VALUATION 5500
x22
5000 x20 5000

4500 S&P 500 x18 4500

4000 12/14/23 4000

S&P 500 Blue Angels x16
3500 Implied Price Index* x14 3500
12/07/23
3000 x12 3000

2500 x10 2500

2000 2000

1500 1500

1000 1000

500 500
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

4700 4700

4300 4300
S&P 400 X22
3900 12/14/23 X20
3900

3500 S&P 400 Blue Angels X18 3500

Implied Price Index*
3100 12/07/23 x16 3100

2700 x14 2700

2300 x12 2300

1900 x10 1900

1500 1500

1100 1100

700 700

300 300
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

2300 2300

2100 2100
S&P 600 x22
1900 12/14/23 1900
x20
1700 S&P 600 Blue Angels 1700
Implied Price Index* x18
1500 12/07/23 x16 1500

1300 x14 1300

1100 x12 1100

900 x10 900

700 700

500 500

300 300
yardeni.com
100 100
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Implied stock price index calculated using actual 52-week consensus expected forward earnings times hypothetical forward P/Es.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Standard & Poors and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 19 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 S&P 500 Forward Revenues & Earnings
Figure 25.
410 410
360 360
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS
310 310
& REVENUES PER SHARE
260 (ratio scale) 260
12/7
210 210

160 160

110 110

60 60

Forward
Earnings* (244.4)
Forward
Revenues*
Divided by 10 (190.0)
7% Growth
yardeni.com Rate**
10 10
79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year. Monthly through April 1994, then weekly.
** Compounded monthly to yield 7% annually.
Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 26.
60 60
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS ANNUAL GROWTH FORECASTS*
(based on analysts’ consensus estimates, percent, weekly)
50 21 50

40 40

30 30

18
20 20
11
17 25
24
10 10
13 14 22
12
15 16 19 23
0 0
2017 (11.2) 2022 (7.4)
2018 (23.8) 2023 (1.1)
-10 2019 (1.4) 2024 (11.0) -10
2020 (-13.9) 2025 (12.3) 20

-20
2021 (50.4) -20

Latest data thru 12/07/23 yardeni.com

-30 -30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 20 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 S&P 500 Forward Revenues & Earnings
Figure 27.
20 20
S&P 500 REVENUES ANNUAL GROWTH FORECASTS*
(based on analysts’ consensus estimates, percent, weekly)
21
15 15

22
10 11 10
18

17
5 25
24 5
19
14
13 16 23
12
0 0
2017 (6.4) 2022 (11.5)
2018 (8.9) 2023 (2.1)
2019 (4.1) 2024 (5.0) 20
15
-5
2020 (-2.8) -5
2021 (16.2)

Latest data thru 12/07/23 yardeni.com

-10 -10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 21 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 S&P 500/400/600 Annual Earnings Squiggles
Figure 28.
275 275
S&P 500 EARNINGS PER SHARE FORECASTS 24
250 250
(analysts’ consensus estimates, dollars, weekly, ratio scale) 23
225 225

200 21 200
20 22
175 175
19
150 16 17 18 150

15
125 13 14 125

12
100 100
11

75 75
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

225 225
S&P 400 24
195 195
23
165 165

135 20 21 135
22
105 19 105
16 17 18
15
75 13 14 75

12

11
45 45
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

130 130
110 S&P 600 110
24
23
90 90

70 20 70
21
22
50 19 50
16 17 18
15
14
13
30 30
12
11

Latest data thru 12/07/23 yardeni.com

10 10
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 22 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
 S&P 500/400/600 Sectors Forward Earnings
Figure 29.
140 140
S&P 500 SECTORS:
FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE*
120 Consumer Discretionary Information Technology 120
Consumer Staples Materials
Energy Real Estate
100 Financials Communication Services 100
Health Care Utilities
Industrials
80 80

60 60
12/7

40 40

20 20

0 0
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
250 250
S&P 400 SECTORS:
225 Consumer Discretionary Information Technology 225
Consumer Staples Materials
200 Energy Real Estate 200
Financials Communication Services
175 Health Care Utilities 175
Industrials
150 150

125 125

100 100
12/7
75 75

50 50

25 25

0 0

-25 -25
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
200 200
S&P 600 SECTORS: Consumer Discretionary Materials
175 Consumer Staples Real Estate 175
Energy Communication Services
Financials Utilities
150 Health Care 150
Industrials
125 Information Technology 125

100 100

75 12/7 75

50 50

25 25

0 0

-25 -25
yardeni.com
-50 -50
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
* Time-weighted average of the consensus estimates for current and next year.
Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 23 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, Margins
Figure 30.
2050 2050
S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL
12/7
1850 (dollars) Q3 1850

1650 1650

1450 1450

1250 1250

1050 1050

Revenues Per Share

850 52-week Forward* (1900.2) 850
Actual (x4) (1874.2)
650 650
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

275 275

250 S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL 250
(dollars) 12/7
Q3
225 225

200 200

175 175

150 150

125 125

100 100

75 Operating Earnings Per Share 75

50 52-week Forward* (244.4) 50

I/B/E/S data (x4) (234.4)
25 25

0 0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

16 16
S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN MEASURES
14 (percent) 14
12/7
Q3
12 12

10 10

8 8
Operating Profit Margins
6 52-week Forward* (12.8) 6
I/B/E/S Data (12.5)
4 4

yardeni.com
2 2
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next years.

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Page 24 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, Margins
Figure 40.
60 60
Q3
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE*
55 (dollars, quarterly) 55
Q3
50 50

45 S&P 500 Operating Earnings 45

I/B/E/S data (58.61)
40 40
S&P data (52.27)
35 35

30 30

25 25

20 20

15 15

10 10

5 5

0 0
yardeni.com
-5 -5
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Standard & Poor’s and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.

Figure 41.
2050 2050

1850 S&P 500 REVENUES PER SHARE: ACTUAL (S&P quarterly data) & 12/7
Q3 1850
FORWARD (I/B/E/S weekly data)
1650 (dollars, ratio scale) 1650

1450 1450

1250 1250

1050 1050

850 Revenues Per Share 850

Forward* (1900.2)
Actual (x4) (1874.2)

650 650

yardeni.com
450 450
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Time-weighted average of analysts’ consensus estimates for S&P 500 revenues per share for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005,
then weekly.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Standard & Poor’s (for actual revenues) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (for forward revenues).

Page 25 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
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 S&P 500 Earnings, Revenues, Margins
Figure 42.
310 310
260 S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS PER SHARE* 12/7
260
(ratio scale) Q3
210 210

160 160

110 S&P 500 Operating Earnings 110

Forward Earnings Per Share (244.44)
Operating** (4Q sum) (219.93)
yardeni.com

60 60

Dec

-7.8% -11.9% -8.9% -17.5% -39.4% -21.2% -5.8%

10 10
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26

* 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of the current year’s and next year’s consensus forecast.
Monthly thru 1994, weekly after.
** From S&P until Q4-1993, then from I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Numbers above timeline reflect percent
decline from peak Forward Earnings. Source: I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv.
Figure 43.
16 16
S&P 500 PROFIT MARGIN MEASURES
(percent)
14 14

12/7
S&P 500 Operating Profit Margins Q3
12 Forward* (12.8) 12
Operating (I/B/E/S data) (12.5)

10 10

8 8

6 6

4 4

yardeni.com
2 2
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years.
Note: Shaded areas are recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Source: Standard & Poor’s (for actual revenues) and I/B/E/S data by Refinitiv (for forward revenues).

Page 26 / December 14, 2023 / S&P 500/400/600 Weekly Fundamentals Yardeni Research, Inc.
www.yardeni.com
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