1

ASIA PACIFIC & FUTURE GEOSTRATEGIC CALCULUS

Introduction

1. Asia Pacific is one of the most dynamic and fastest growing regions in the world.
It is a region with complex and mixed currents, where on one side, drive for economic
development has been pushing the region forward for decades and on the other,
uncertain territorial and maritime disputes have the potential to trigger wars between
Asia Pacific nations. On one side, interdependencies are accelerating economic growth
and on the other, communism and authoritarian governance is enslaving people. On
top of these mixed currents, China and the US compete over a wide range of interests
in this region. Notwithstanding the US involvement and consumption of its foreign policy
resources in other regions like Middle East, the US is shifting focus to Asia Pacific. With
China, being a dominant actor in the region, the US Pivot Asia policy is becoming a
defining factor in the relations among the Asia pacific nations. Besides, complicating
the prospects of peace in the region, it is conditioning the calculation of national policies
that may influence the future of global international relations.

2. The internal dynamics and competition between the two great powers in Asia
Pacific, besides impacting the regional balance, is also expected to have resounding
influence in South Asia. It is in this backdrop, that our panel is attempting to outline the
broad contours of future geo-strategic calculus of Asia Pacific Region.

3. Ladies and Gentlemen, in the next 45 minutes or so, our panel aims to provide
an insight into Asia Pacific Region, and its future Geo-Strategic Calculus with a view to
gauge the impact on Pakistan.

4. The sequence and composition of the Presentation is as flashed. I shall now call
Gp Capt Sazalee for his part of presentation.

PART – I

PLACE OF ASIA PACIFIC IN WORLD ORDER AND GEO-STRATEGIC CALCULUS

Ladies and Gentlemen

I shall be covering my part in the sequence as flashed:-

(1) Asia Pacific Region and Major Players

(2) Historical Perspective
(3) Regional Dynamics
(4) Geo-Strategic Landscape
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Allow me to first orientate ourselves with the Asia Pacific region which is

Asia Pacific Region

5. Asia Pacific is situated at western side of Pacific Ocean. The region varies in size
includes Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, China, Oceania, Russia, Canada, Chile,
Mexico, Peru and the US. Oceania (Australasia) is the world’s smallest and sparsely
populated continent made up of Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea,
Northeast Asia includes Korean Peninsula, Japan whereas Southeast Asia comprise of
Taiwan, Vietnam, Laos, Thailand, Philippines, Cambodia, Brunei, Malaysia, Singapore,
Indonesia. Amongst these Pacific Asian nations, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan
are known as the Asian Tigers for their booming economies. Meanwhile Malaysia,
Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam were name as Asian Tiger Cub. Since 2013, China
and Japan are ranked 2nd and 3rd largest economies of the world. As a whole, Asia
Pacific region alone account for one quarter of world’s GDP.

Historical Perspective

6. Historically, Asia Pacific has been the cradle of many great civilizations of the
world. Cultural, religious and philosophical traditions reflect the world’s great heritages,
ranging from Confucianism, Buddhism, Hinduism and Islam to Christianity. It is a highly
diverse region on account of population size, economic growth, and cultural traditions.
Asia Pacific has been a conflict-ridden region, both politically and militarily, was defined
by three global wars; the two world wars and the cold war. The United States’ last three
major military conflicts namely WW II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War. However,
in contrast, countries of Asia Pacific region have also showed evidence of peaceful
coexistence for mutual benefit and economic prosperity.

Asia Pacific – Regional Dynamics

7. Its prospects of becoming the potential hub of world economic activity and
remained subjected to outside interferences by the great powers. Let me now gauge
the dynamics of Asia Pacific w.r.t its broader classification including Northeast Asia,
Southeast Asia, China, Oceana, Russia and South Asia.

8. Northeast Asia. Northeast Asia is considered as ‘Asia’s Temple’. It is a

place where five of the world’s most powerful nations meet: China, Japan, South Korea,
Russia and the US. US, Japan and South Korea are the champions of democracy;
China is the largest authoritarian nation; and Russia a mix of half-baked democracy and
half revived authoritarian rule. All five powers have been enemy to one another in the
past. Six parties’ talks are in its conceptual stage, and it is only an adhoc mechanism.
The major players in NE Asia are Japan and South Korea:-
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a. Japan. Japan is spread over many islands including Hokkaido, Honshu,

Shikoku, and Kyushu and many small islands.

b. South Korea. South Korea is located below the 38th parallel on the
Korean Peninsula as a result of a 1945 agreement reached by the Allies at
the Potsdam Conference.

9. Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia is an area with great strategic significance

comprising of eleven countries including Brunei, Myanmar, Cambodia, East Timor,
Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. It is at
the cross roads of Pacific and Indian Oceans, where some of the world’s most important
sea lanes of transportation are located. With a land mass of over 6.4 million square
kilometers, ocean stretch of 7.5 million square kilometers, 600 million people, a pool of
$1.5 trillion GDP, this region is what the geo-strategy writer, Nicholos J. Spkyman
describes as a ‘core area of contention for great powers’. Region is also a house to
bilateral and multilateral cooperative arrangements, which include: ARF (ASEAN
Regional Forum), CSCAP (the Committee on Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific);
the North Pacific Working Group of CSCAP as a track-II sub-regional security dialogue,
which is attended by all the North Pacific countries, including North Korea; and the
"ASEAN plus three (China, Japan and South Korea).

10. China. China being nuclear power is the world’s second largest country by land
area and the largest standing army with second largest defence budget with a GDP of
$9.4 trillion. In 2002, China created an ASEAN-China Free Trade Area.

11. Oceania. Oceania consists of Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea,
and several nearby islands, have been close allies of the US. Australia, the US and
New Zealand were tied in security collaboration through ANZUS Pact. However, New
Zealand withdrew from the pact by not allowing entry of US nuclear capable submarines
at her ports. Australia continues to remain a close US ally.

12. Russia. Basic Facts Russia had strong presence in Asia Pacific and during the
World Wars, Vietnam War and Cold War. After its disintegration, the influence in Asia
Pacific reduced significantly. Russia has improved her ties with China and has
enhanced trade with China on energy deal with China cost of $400 Billion.

13. South Asia. Major events in Asia Pacific region has directly and / or indirectly
influence the dynamics of Pakistan, India, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and
Myanmar. Pakistan and India being the major actors and nuclear powers play an
important role in South Asia.

a. India. India aspires to emerge as a ‘Comprehensive Power’ in South

Asia. It has high economic growth (GDP $1.996 trillion) and 3 rd largest
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military force and her ambitions to become a regional hegemon. India’s

“Look East” policy of 1991 was configured primarily to address her
balance of payment crisis by engaging in trade with Asian Tigers. Now
India takes regular part in the regional security dialogues and became a
member of ASEAN regional forum in 1996. India acceded to ASEAN
Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in 2003. India is also part of ASEAN+6,
East Asia Summit and BIMSTEC, India also entered into a Free Trade
agreement with ASEAN.

b. Pakistan. Nuclear capable Pakistan, with its geo-strategic location,

Population size of 180 Million, GDP of $240 Billion, having status of an
Observer in ASEAN and SCO forums. The development of Gwadar Port
and PCEC Pakistan remains a key player in the region.

Geo-Strategic Landscape of Asia Pacific

14. Asia Pacific is poised to become the economic Powerhouse of the unfolding
Pacific century. The geo-strategic landscape of Asia Pacific is shaped by the regional
environment and interplay of actors within and without in pursuit of their interests. While
the majority of the Asia Pacific nations who believe in peaceful co-existence and
interdependencies are not likely to cause a major change in the region; China and the
US, with their respective aspirations / designs, have the potential to impact geo-
strategic landscape of Asia Pacific.

15. Impact of China. The most significant external impact of China’s rise is the
consequential pressure it places on the onset of a power transition between China and
the US, the essence of which concerns both the current international system and the
future of international relations. Finally, China has the capacity and potential to become
a superpower, possible eclipsing the US in the future. China also arguably has the
ambition to make a new world order in its image.

16. Impact of China Conflicts and US-China relations. Many of China’s disputes
are in the western Pacific besides unsettled border disputes with India and unsettling
issues in Tibet and Uyghur areas. Taiwan issue remains sensitivity between China and
the US for well over 60 years. Farther in the East, and South China seas, China has
territorial and EEZ disputes with Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia,
and Brunei, respectively. Recently, China had conflict with the US over latter’s military
activities in the Chinese claimed maritime Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). As per US
perspective, China’s pursuit of its expanded national interests may have negative
connotations on its relations with the US with a possible confrontation in the Asia Pacific
region.
 5

17. Impact of the US Pivot Asia Policy. Although, US has been trying to respond
to the rising China issue since President Bush administration in early 1990s, however,
burning issues elsewhere kept the US busy in other parts of the world and the US was
unable to develop a coherent response to China’s monumental challenge until the
Obama administration took office in 2009. The Obama administration’s move is now
known as the US strategic shift towards Asia Pacific.

I shall now call Mr. Aftab for his part of presentation.

PART - II

CHINA’s STRATEGIC INTEREST IN ASIA PACIFIC

18. General. China remained a dominant force in Asia Pacific region since
centuries, but it functioned as a “civilization” rather than as a state in the modern
Western sense. The Chinese civilization made significant contributions in the
development of bureaucracy, science and technology, the arts, agriculture and industry,
commerce, and philosophy etc of the regional countries due to which China saw itself
as a model for others within its civilization area.

19. China’s spectacular economic rise and its concurrent military modernization is
arguably the most important political event in Asia since the Korean War, over 50 years
ago1. Implications of the rise of China are being talked about globally and debated
among foreign policy and security policy experts as to what it means for the rest of the
world. Of particular importance is the question of what it means for China’s neighbors in
Asia. Will China be a benign or adversarial force? Will China challenge the US, in the
near or long term future or will it never be a challenge to American power? How do the
nations of Asia Pacific feel about the potentials of China to be the next hegemon?

20. To answer these questions, with a view to discern the future mosaic of
cooperation or competition within the regional and extra regional countries, a broad
outline of strategic culture of Asia Pacific region will be discussed in the ensuing
paragraphs.

21. China’s Contemporary Grand Strategy2. China’s grand strategy is based on

four general principles:-

a. First and the foremost is the Chinese desire to reclaim great power status.
In other words, this aspiration is put forward as the Middle Kingdom
complex. China is making rapid strides in achieving great power status
alternatively termed as ‘peaceful rise’ or ‘peaceful development’.

1
The rise of China and International Security, edited by Kevin J. Cooney and Yoichiro Sato, p 1
2
China’s Asia Pacific Strategy and India, by Dr. N.K. Tripathi, p 52
 6

b. Second, cardinal principle of Chinese grand strategy is the necessity for a

peaceful international environment in which economic progress can be
pursued. Economic development not only provides the necessary
wherewithal to provide for the impoverished people, but also requisite
finance to proceed with the military modernization. China has managed to
steadfastly cling to this policy even in situations of grave provocation like
the Belgrade bombing of its embassy by the United States in May 1999,
though the United States claimed the bombing was accidental, yet
Chinese were skeptical of the US claim, and believed this to a be a
deliberate act. Despite the public protests over the incident, and seeming
possibility of China taking a vehement anti-US posture in the international
relations, Chinese elite refrained from shifting the gears.

c. Third, very often cited Dengist claims of not seeking leadership. Analysts
generally call this as a principle proscribing premature leadership which
China cannot afford. Though China has global ambitions, yet is primarily
proactive regionally. On the global level it espouses multi-polarity in the
international system. The core of Chinese grand strategy constitutes in its
desire for a multi-polar world and Uni-polar Asia.

d. The fourth principle, of its grand strategy flows from the third where China
recognizes that it is a part of independent world, whose untroubled
functioning is in its self interest.

e. According to Swaine and Tellis, the Chinese grand strategy is calculative

strategy where “the notion of “calculative” strategy is defined in
substantive terms as a pragmatic approach that emphasis the primacy of
internal economic growth and stability, the nurturing of amicable
international relations, the relative restraint in the use of force combined
with increasing efforts to create a more modern military and the continued
search for asymmetric gains internationally.

22. China’s Military Thought.3 China’s military strategy is important vis-à-vis

strategic culture / outlook. As China reassess its place and role, its military strategy /
doctrine has also begun to show the requisite change from Peoples War to Peoples
War under modern conditions and local wars under hi tech conditions to local wars
under the conditions of Information.

23. According to Nan Li, there are five major differences between Peoples’ War and
Peoples’ War under Modern conditions: firstly, rather than drawing the enemy into
interiors, they are to be fought at borders; secondly, earlier battles were more important

3
China’s Asia Pacific Strategy and India, by Dr N.K. Tripathi, p 39
 7

than protracted war of attrition; thirdly, positional warfare was as important as earlier
mobile warfare; fourthly, cities were to be defended as against earlier dictum of retreat
to rural areas; fifthly, the dictum of victory by denial was to be supplemented by
deterrence through retaliation.

24. Major Military Developments.4 According to a statement issued by the

Headquarters of the PRC People’s Liberation Army (PLA), the PLA is expected to shift
its traditional structure by adding two new battle units and cutting outdated ones in an
effort to create new combat effectiveness. In order to modernize quickly, China has
pursued both internal military developments and external purchases. China has
purchased the latest weaponry and technology from Russia, Israel and also the EU. The
example of the recent Chinese developments is the J-10, all weather fighter aircraft.
Another example of Chinese military buildup is its pursuit of cruise missile technology in
order to offset anti-ballistic missile system. It has also purchased four ‘Sovermenny’
destroyers from Russia. These ships are specifically designed to attack aircraft carriers
and carry Russian Moskit anti-carrier missiles (SS-N-22 sunburn) that can be armed
with conventional or nuclear warheads.

25. China is making headways in cyber warfare or computer-bases syping. In

addition, China is also intent on demonstrating its technological advancements through
its space programme. China’s test of an anti satellite missile on January 11, 2007, a
considered a serious source of concern.

26. Anti Access / Area Denial Capability (A2/AD).5 China’s A2/AD capabilities
were initially developed to deal with a future Taiwan Strait crisis and possible U.S.
military intervention. As these capabilities gradually come into operation, China can also
employ them to deal with its “U.S. problem” at large in the Western Pacific.

27. China’s Strategy in Asia Pacific. Broad contours include:-

a. China’s Concessionary Balancing. The concessionary balancing for

cultural specificity of Chinese style of power and regions history. As
Medeiros, says Chinese power is “more gravitational than
confrontational.”6 The Chinese policies are concessionary because they
are not only seeking concessions but also giving concessions as well.
China has in the last two years worked actively to concede to the West’s
demand on sensitive issues like North Korea, Myanmar, Sudan and Iran.

4
The Rise of China and International Security, edited by Kevin J. Cooney and Yoichiro Sato, p 43,44
5
Asia Pacific – A Strategic Assessment by David Li, p 11
6
China’s International Behavior: Activism, Opportunism, and Diversification by Evan S. Medeiros, p xx.
 8

b. Internal Balancing and External Soft Balancing.7 Wang argues that

China is practicing “internal balancing” and “external soft balancing”. He
points out the strategy of internal balancing entails accelerated economic
growth and military modernization that emphasis asymmetric strategies
whereas the strategy of soft balancing calls for joining and even creating
multilateral institutions and engaging in great power diplomacy.

China and Asia Pacific Regionalism8

28. China's is regarded as the locomotive behind region’s splendid economic growth
and has successfully managed to convey its peaceful intention to its neighbours by
participating in a plethora of regional organizations like ASEAN+1 ASEAN+3, ARF,
ASEAN Vision Group, ASEM, CSCAP, and Shangrila Dialogue. China has launched
two regional security initiatives on its own, firstly is the SCO and the BOAO Forum.

Internal Dynamics of Asia Pacific

29. China and Northeast Asia

a. North East Asia Cooperation Dialogue (NEACD) comprises China, Russia,

United States, two Koreas and Japan9. Northeast Asia comprises critical
territory of Taiwan, whose unsettled status gives rise to a host of issues.

b. Northeast Asia is the primary theatre of geopolitical contest in the Asia

Pacific. China is apprehensive of US aims and policies in the region 10.
China and Japan have history legacy, affecting relations of both the
countries. North Korea presents a nuclear and missile threat to the
regional periphery.

30. China’s Strategy in Northeast Asia: Five Key Principles 11

a. First, is the alignment with the well established Chinese grand strategy of
peaceful rise?
b. The second principle of Chinese strategy in the region is that ensuring no
balancing efforts takes place.
c. The strategy of China in this region is of no independence to Taiwan or
One China Policy.

7
Yuan – Kang Wang “China’s Grand Strategy and US Primacy: IS China Balancing American Power, p 15
8
China’s Asia Pacific Strategy and India, by Dr. N. K. Tripathi, p 64,65
9
China’s Asia Pacific Strategy and India, by Dr. N. K. Tripathi, p 77
10
Ibid, p 85
11
China’s Asia Pacific Strategy and India, by Dr. N. K. Tripathi, p 89
 9

d. Military modernization is another essential component of China’s

Northeast Asia strategy.
e. Finally, stable Sino-US relations are essential to China strategy.

31. China and Southeast Asia. China seeks for growing economic convergence
and participating in the multilateral mechanism of the region 12. US’ inconsistency has
given an opportunity to China to expand its influence in the region.

a. China-Malaysia Relations. Malaysia was the first country of ASEAN

to establish diplomatic relations with China. China and Malaysia economic
relations are thriving, with China as Malaysia’s 4th largest trading partner.13

b. China – Indonesia Relations. Relations between both the countries are

based on the belief that China-ASEAN Free Trade Area will lead to
economic riches of the region. However, relations between both the
countries saw ups and downs, with Indonesia re-establishing diplomatic
relations in 1990, after severance of relations in 1967.

c. China – Vietnam Relations. China’s one of the strongest cultural

influence can be seen in Vietnam; however, Vietnam and China have
fought a violent conflict in late 70s. In year 1999, both countries signed a
Land Border treaty, signifying Vietnam’s eagerness to settle the issue.14

d. China – Singapore Relations. The ethnic Chinese constitute the

majority of Singapore population. Being a small country, Singapore does
not want to antagonize China and focuses on involvement of China in
regional affairs through ASEAN.

e. China – Thailand Relations. Thailand is one of the few countries of the

region which has not been colonized. China and Thailand maintain good
relations, as both countries helped Khmer Rouge to wage a struggle
against Vietnamese intervention in Cambodia. Thailand also maintains
security relationship with US.

f. China and Southeast Asia: the Converging Interests. China and

South-east Asia have developed comprehensive economic relationship.
They overlook crucial SLOCs which is critical for the Chinese energy
supply and security. China’s trade with Southeast Asian countries is
substantial and it is growing at very high rate for the last many years.
China entered into a Free Trade Area with the ASEAN countries.
12
Ibid, p 109
13
Ibid, p 114
14
China’s Asia Pacific Strategy and India, by Dr. N. K. Tripathi, p 117
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Major Conflict Issues in Asia Pacific

32. China and Taiwan. China's Taiwan Province is in confrontation with the Central
Government with the support of foreign forces i.e. USA, Japan and Western Powers
since 1949. Chinese claim on the basis of ‘ one China principle’ is that Taiwan is
integral part of China but the USA and allies encouraged the ruling elite of Taiwan to
maintain its separate position for containing and putting pressure on China. “Beijing
insists that the Taiwan issue is a national issue that must be solved by the Chinese on
both sides of the Taiwan’s Strait; it is not an issue of international deliberation” 15.

33. South China Sea Disputes. The South China Sea is the most important
energy trade route for China; it encompasses a portion of the South Pacific spanning
from the southern tip of Taiwan to the Strait of Malacca. The area includes four island
groups known as the Pratas, the Macclesfield Bank, the Paracel Islands, and the
Spratly Islands. These islands are important for strategic and security reasons,
shipping, fishing, and, potentially, hydrocarbons. This scramble for territory continued
well into the 1990s and left the disputes on the South China Sea islands as follows:

a. The Pratas Islands: completely occupied by Taiwan, disputed by China;

b. The Paracels Islands: mostly occupied by China, disputed by Vietnam;

c. The Macclesfield Bank: disputed among China, Taiwan, and Philippines;

d. The Scarborough Shoal: disputed among China, Taiwan, and Philippines;

e. The Spratly Islands: disputed among China, Vietnam, Taiwan, the

Philippines, Malaysia, and Brunei.

34. China continues to hold its stance in the South China Sea and accuses all others
of “stealing and occupying China’s territories.” Vietnam holds the second largest claim.
In addition to disputing China over the Paracels Islands, Vietnam claims ownership to all
of the Spratly Islands. Its claim puts Vietnam in dispute with China, Taiwan, and its
Southeast Asian neighbors Malaysia, Brunei, and the Philippines.

35. China and Japan. The relationship between the two largest economies in Asia
have been marred throughout the 20th century due to economic, territorial and political
disputes including Taiwanese sovereignty, the invasions of China by Japan and Japan’s
subsequent refusal to acknowledge the extent of its war crimes. The territorial disputes
surrounding the Diaoyu Islands and associated fishing rights and energy resources; and
Japanese-American security co-operation are the other issues of concern.

15
Rebalancing Asia-Pacific: Emerging Security Dynamics by Major General GG Dwivedi, Department of West Asian
Studies, Aligarh Muslim University
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PART - III
US REBALANCING TO ASIA-PACIFIC REGION AND ITS IMPACT
US Rebalance to Asia - Pacific

36. Relevance of Asia-Pacific region to the US is not new. Since World War II and
throughout the cold war period, the region figured out in US geo-political and military
mosaic. From containment of Soviet Union to securing trade /energy routes through the
straits, to recent concerns over emerging Chinese influence in the region, US interest
and need to re-evaluate and rebalance towards this region cannot be over emphasized.

37. US Interests. Modest thinking may suggest that America’s future

prosperity and security interests are intertwined with the Asia-Pacific region. The US is
likely to remain a strong and active partner in the region and is investing in public
diplomacy, enhancing military capabilities of cooperating countries and geo-economics
of the region. However, before the need for a rebalancing policy can be examined, it is
imperative to first understand what are US interests in the Asia-Pacific region; which
shall then logically lead to a better insight towards the rebalancing strategy :-

a. US vision of retaining the status of the most dominant global power, which
cannot afford to allow anyone to emerge as dominant power in any region.

b. There are two dimensions of US global and regional interests in the region
which are interlinked: strategy to acquire access, influence over and
control of resources in the Middle East, CARs and Africa; and strategy of
denial in the Asia-Pacific i.e. restriction of access to resources or
advantage of safe SLOCs to the main competitor - China.

38. US Objectives. US has following objectives for the Asia Pacific:-

a. Modernize and strengthen U.S. alliances with regional players such as

Japan, South Korea, The Philippines, Taiwan and Singapore.
b. Develop and strengthen ties with emerging partners such as Myanmar,
Vietnam, and Malaysia.
c. Support effective regional institutions like ASEAN, APEC etc that strive to
solve problems based on internationally recognized rules and norms.
d. Increase trade / investment and expand broad-based economic growth.
e. Ensure US military presence in the region.
f. Promote democratic development, good governance, and human rights.
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g. Expand people-to-people ties.

39. Benefits for Asia-Pacific Region from US Perspective. The US is the leading
investor in the region. In 2012 alone, US FDI in the region was 622 billion US$,
reflecting a 35% increase since the beginning of present administration. These
investments from a dynamic private sector, support jobs and economic growth in the
region and in the US, and signifies US long-term stake in the economic growth and
development of the region. The US assistance is focused on :-

a. Supporting economic integration and trade.

b. Enhancing regional security.
c. Advancing inclusive economic development.
d. Strengthening regional institutions to effectively address problems.
e. Addressing health / environmental problems affecting the region / globe.
US Rebalancing Strategy towards Asia-Pacific

40. During late 2011 and early 2012, the US administration announced that it would
be intensifying its role in Asia-Pacific region. This was at the time when US was
showing signs of war weariness and its economy was under considerable stress.
Moreover, during this time, China was showing signs of political, military and economic
emergence, and many of China’s neighbours were becoming uncomfortable with its
growing assertiveness.

41. Politico-Economic Aspects of Rebalancing

a. The US pivot or rebalance has three elements; military, diplomatic and

economic, aimed at reinforcing US leadership in matters of regional
security and economic prosperity with economies of the Asia-Pacific.

b. The US recognizes China as the competitor for energy resources from the
Middle East, mineral resources from the continent of Africa and trade from
other Western destinations; therefore, US consider it essential to dominate
the choke points between South China Sea and Indian Ocean.

c. The US considers PCEC a strategic challenge which, if realized, will

greatly reduce China’s dependency on traditional routes and undermine
the US influence and interests in the region.

d. Retention of existing forward Bases by US such as Japan, South Korea,

Guam, Philippines, Singapore and Australia is of key importance.
 13

e. US economic interest in South East Asian countries is being seen as the

cauldron of future growth.

Military Dimensions of US Rebalancing

42. Key Aspects of Military Deployment. The US pivot to the Asia-Pacific was
announced as the ‘Future Defence Strategy’ in January 2012. US Pacific Command is
at the core of the pivot policy; its Area of Operations is from the coast of California to the
India-Pakistan border. Key features being:-

a. Naval deployment in Pacific and Atlantic from the present ratio of 50:50 to
become 60:40 by the year 2020. As of 2013, the US navy has 283
warships: of which 101 are deployed, 52 of them in the Pacific and Indian
Ocean including five carrier battle groups. There will be 62 warships in the
region by 2020.

b. Further developments are highlighted on the slide.

c. The Prompt Global Strike (PGS). This new concept has brought back
the role of technology and innovation to the forefront.The US is developing
the PGS capability, which includes hypersonic technology vehicle,
advanced hypersonic weapons and missile systems. Costing about US$
240 billion, the PGS relies on an extensive and costly satellite based
communications, intelligence, command and control support systems. The
logic of PGS is a non-nuclear capacity to deter proliferating actors.

d. Energy Self Sufficiency. Due to shale oil and gas boom, the US is likely
to be energy independent. For the US, energy self-sufficiency is the
perfect excuse for a phased troops’ withdrawal from the Middle East; freed
from energy dependency, to concentrate on Asia-Pacific region.

Factors Linked with US Rebalancing Strategy

43. Global Environment

a. The “Arab Spring”, which the United States considers a great success,
has come across a turbulent environment with deteriorating situation in
Syria and Iraq and rise of proclaimed Islamic state phenomenon.

b. The US has to avoid putting too much attention on pivoting to Asia in the
neglect of a deteriorating situation in the West. The case in point being
resurgence of Russia and Ukrainian crisis, where Crimea has been
annexed by the former while the world stood still.
 14

c. The containing factor of the U.S. financial problems on its global strategy
cannot be underestimated.

44. Regional Environment

a. Chinese Emergence as a Regional Power.

b. From a political angle, the US regards China as a potential power and a

challenger to global leadership; militarily, they see China as a potential
adversary and strategic opponent; and finally, economically, they view
China as a competitor.

c. The recent past saw growing tensions between the US and China over the
US relations across Asia and maritime disputes in South and East China
Seas; all issues that fall under the rubric of the pivot.

d. The aggressive military factor in the US rebalancing strategy, and in

particular the strategic focus on “containing” China, has already stirred up
opinions in the region. A possible derailing of the Sino-US relationship is
definitely not in the overall interests of the US.

e. Guam. Guam offers the US a central location. It is already a recipient of

forces currently being moved from US East Asian allies and may serve as
a potential fallback as the process continues in the future. For all these
reasons, Guam’s capabilities and infrastructure have been built up
significantly over the past decade. To some extent, this is returning Guam
to its historical status as a strategic support and communications hub in
the Western Pacific for US forces.

f. Australia. US military access to Australia has recently attracted

widespread interest in the context of the joint decision to substantially
enhance US military presence in Northern Australia. During the Cold War,
in spite ANZUS Treaty of 1951, Australia was regarded by the US as a
strategic backwater. At present, however, with the rise of China as a
regional military power, Australia has gained increasing strategic salience
for the US both as a regional ally and as a staging point for air and
maritime operations.

g. Singapore. Key moment in development of the US – Singapore strategic

relationship over the last several decades was the closing of US bases in
the Philippines in 1991. Since that time, Singapore has effectively
replaced the Philippines as the key logistics hub for US military forces, in
 15

transit through Southeast Asia. In 2001, Singapore completed construction

of a new naval Base to service US Navy warships. Though Singapore is
not a formal US ally, its partnership with the US now arguably exceeds, in
strategic significance compared to the Philippines and Thailand.

45. Military Concerns. The US makes efforts in consolidating the military alliances
with the strong Cold-War partners and expanding military forces in the Asia-Pacific
region. Certain American think tanks even urge the Pentagon to dispatch more soldiers
to the region. All this runs counter to the mainstream aspirations of people, which calls
for peace, development and cooperation.

I now call Air Cdre Fazal for the final part of presentation.

PART – IV

FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR ASIA PACIFIC, IMPACT ON PAKISTAN

Ladies and Gentlemen, I shall be presenting this part in the sequence as flashed:-

(1) Future Scenarios

(2) Impact on Pakistan
(3) Conclusions
(4) Recommendations

46. After having gauged the Asia Pacific Region Geo-Politically and Geo-
Strategically, the stage is set for building scenarios on Asia Pacific for the horizon year
2030. The panel, after having carried out the scenario building process, identified
important drivers and trends, and the pertinent ones include:-

47. Drivers Trends

Economy - Increasing volumes of trade between states,

Bilateral / Multilateral Co-operations (ASEAN,
APEC, ARF etc)

Energy Security - String of Pearls, Bilateral / Multilateral Security

Agreements / Alliances, Gas Pipelines etc

Influence - Enhanced Military Deployments (US / China),

Military Exercises, Defence Co-operations
(US-Taiwan), etc Show of Presence at
Regional / Global Forums (US in Singapore,
Taiwan, Japan, Philippines, India, etc)
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Possible Future Scenarios for Asia Pacific

48. Since US and China emerge as the two key players in the Asia Pacific region
with ‘Influence’ and ‘economy’ as their strengths respectively; Same were selected as
the two most pertinent drivers for building four scenarios as flashed.

49. I shall be covering Scenario No 1 and 2 in the order of probability, No 1 being the
most probable. The first scenario suggests a status quo in the Asia Pacific Region
where:-

a. Status Quo (Peaceful Co-existence). China remains economically

dominant and inextricably tied in a symbiotic relationship with US. The US
maintains its military dominance and presence in the Asia Pacific region,
aligning regional states on security issues to contain China and generate
strategic competition between other regional powers. Internal fissures
exist in China due to diversion of resources from internal reforms to
enhancement of military capability for the protection of energy and trade
corridors that are constantly under threat due to US alliances in the region.

The second scenario suggests Multi-polarity in the world where:-

b. Multi-polarity (Chinese Dominance). Balanced economic growth

makes China a global economic and military power (long term) owing to
sustained availability/security of energy/trade routes and successful
transformation to knowledge based economy. Realization of internal
harmony and stability within the country is achieved through structural
reforms and balanced growth. Although US remains major power but its
lesser influence in the Asia Pacific region assists China in fully mobilizing
its resources through geo-political integration aligning regional countries in
own favour in order to realize its ‘One China’ Policy with Taiwan.

Ladies and Gentlemen, this brings me to the major conclusions from the
study:-

50. Major Conclusions

a. China, with its robust economic growth and rising influence, enjoys
dominance in Asia Pacific region.
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b. The US continues to follow simultaneous ‘engagement’ and ‘containment’

policy towards China and monitors Chinese progress through regional
organizations.

c. US’ Asia Pivot, support to Taiwan, presence in Asia Pacific and

cooperation with Australia, Philippines, Thailand, India and Singapore
remains a source of concern for China.

d. SCO is one of the Organizations that provide a stable platform for China
and Russia to challenge US hegemony in the region.

e. The US technological edge over China is likely to persist for some time.
However, reduced US defence budget and China’s steady defense
growth, is likely to reduce the gap between the two militaries in long term.

f. India is likely to adopt a balanced approach in supporting the US policies

in order to continue and further its economic engagement with China.

Impact on South Asia / Pakistan

51. Having seen the major conclusions, let us now see their impact on Pakistan, first
the likely challenges:-

a. Challenges

(1) The US’ Asia Pivot is likely to force South Asian Nations and Pak-
US relations to be driven more by realism and Sino-Pakistan
relations may be viewed critically and eco-military assistance is
likely to be conditioned.
(2) Pakistan’s Pro-China policies are likely to be influenced to align
with the larger interests of the US and India in the region exploiting
Pakistan’s sensitivity to Kashmir and concerns over terrorism and
extremism.

Coming over to the Opportunities

b. Opportunities

(1) Surrounded by countries forging security alliances under the US

umbrella, China can foster closer relations with Myanmar, Pakistan
and CARs for securing its energy requirements.
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(2) Pak-China Economic Corridor (PCEC) besides serving as gateway

to prosperity for the region also offers Central Asia greater access
to the sea and global trade network.
(3) The possibility of cooperation in oil / gas exploration / transportation
exists.
Recommendations

52. I shall now make some pertinent recommendation before I conclude the
presentation.

a. Pakistan needs to diversify its geo-strategic possibilities in order to

improve its relations with all three important countries of Asia Pacific, i.e.
US, China and Japan.

b. Pakistan’s political and diplomatic engagement with Asia Pacific major

powers should be based on national interests and within the realities of
global and regional environment.

c. Pakistan should take Japan on board particularly for economic

cooperation.

d. The success of Pakistan’s future Asia Pacific policy would depend a great
deal on how US and China reconcile in the Asia Pacific, therefore,
Pakistan needs to carefully balance its relations with US and China.

e. Pakistan to utilize multilateral forums (SCO and ASEAN) to realign its

foreign policy through greater engagement with regional countries of Asia
Pacific.

f. Diplomatic efforts should be made to replicate successful ASEAN model in

South Asia through revitalizing SAARC.

g. Pakistan should re-visit / enhance its bilateral, political and economic

engagements with Pacific Asian countries specially Singapore, Malaysia,
Thailand and South Korea.

Conclusion

53. Ladies and gentlemen, to summing up the study:

Asia Pacific with its geo strategic and economic importance remains to be one of the
most lucrative regions in the world. Besides, the internal dynamism the region continues
to exhibit enormous possibilities for mutual growth and development. With US and
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China being the two main actors the geo strategic landscape of Asia Pacific remains
sensitively balanced to their interests.

This brings me to the end of our presentation. I thank you all for patient hearing.

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