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Outros Métodos de Inferencias
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Abstract
Given a ®nite set of alternatives A, the sorting (or assignment) problem consists in the assignment of each alternative
to one of the pre-de®ned categories. In this paper, we are interested in multiple criteria sorting problems and, more
precisely, in the existing method ELECTRE TRI. This method requires the elicitation of preferential parameters
(weights, thresholds, category limits,. . .) in order to construct a preference model which the decision maker (DM)
accepts as a working hypothesis in the decision aid study. A direct elicitation of these parameters requiring a high
cognitive eort from the DM (V. Mosseau, R. Slowinski, Journal of Global Optimization 12 (2) (1998) 174), proposed
an interactive aggregation±disaggregation approach that infers ELECTRE TRI parameters indirectly from holistic
information, i.e., assignment examples. In this approach, the determination of ELECTRE TRI parameters that best
restore the assignment examples is formulated through a nonlinear optimization program.
In this paper, we consider the subproblem of the determination of the weights only (the thresholds and category
limits being ®xed). This subproblem leads to solve a linear program (rather than nonlinear in the global inference
model). Numerical experiments were conducted so as to check the behaviour of this disaggregation tool. Results
showed that this tool is able to infer weights that restores in a stable way the assignment examples and that it is able to
identify ``inconsistencies'' in the assignment examples. Ó 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
0377-2217/01/$ - see front matter Ó 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
PII: S 0 3 7 7 - 2 2 1 7 ( 0 0 ) 0 0 0 4 1 - 2
264 V. Mousseau et al. / European Journal of Operational Research 130 (2001) 263±275
on the comparison of a to other alternatives The experimental questions are as follows (they
from A). are operationalized through the experimental de-
In this paper, we are interested in the multiple sign described in Section 5):
criteria sorting problematic and, more precisely, in · Let wopt be the weight vector obtained using the
an existing multiple criteria method called linear optimization procedure on the basis of the
ELECTRE TRI (see [12,13,18,26]). When using assignment to categories of alternatives from a
this method, the analyst must determine values of set A A. Let wdm be a weight vector expressed
several parameters (pro®les that de®ne the limits by the DM or inferred by the analyst from
between the categories, weights, discrimination DM's assertions. Are the assignments of alter-
thresholds, . . .). The set p of these parameters is natives from A more ``stable'' when using wopt
used to construct a preference model with which than when considering wdm (the term stable is
the decision maker (DM) accept as a working used as insensitive of the assignments to changes
hypothesis in the decision aid study. Apart from of the weight vector). In other words, is the tool
some very speci®c cases, it is not realistic to as- able to increase the ``stability'' of assignments of
sume that the DM would be able to give explicitly alternatives in a set A ?
the values of each parameter in p. They are far · The obtained weight vector wopt depend on the
dierent from the natural terms in which the DM information given as input, i.e., on the set of as-
usually expresses his/her preferences and expertise. signment examples. What is the average amount
A realistic approach consists in infering the of information necessary to ``calibrate'' the
model parameters of ELECTRE TRI through an model in a satisfactory way? How large should
analysis of assignment examples given by the DM, A be in order to derive wopt in a reliable man-
i.e., from holistic information on his/her judg- ner?
ments. This approach aims at substituting assign- · In practical decision situations, real DMs do not
ment examples for direct elicitation of the model always provide reliable information. Due to
parameters. The values of the parameters will be time constraints and cognitive limitations,
inferred through a certain kind of regression on DMs express contradictory information, their
assignment examples. preferences change over time . . . The optimiza-
Mousseau and Slowinski [11] proposed an ap- tion procedure should be able to highlight the
proach that infer all ELECTRE TRI parameters assignment examples that are contradictory or
simultaneously starting from assignment exam- not representable through the ELECTRE TRI
ples. In this approach, the determination of the preference model. This experiment aims at in-
parameter's values that best ®t the assignment vestigating the ability of the tool to ``identify''
examples given by a DM stems from the resolution the inconsistencies in the DM's statements in or-
of a nonlinear mathematical program. This opti- der to help him/her in revising the preference in-
mization procedure is integrated in an interactive formation. How reliable is the optimization
tool that enables the DM (or anyone acting on his/ procedure to identify inconsistencies in the
her account) to react on the set of obtained pa- DM's judgments?
rameters and to get insights on his/her preferences. · The output of the optimization phase rely on the
Although Mousseau and Slowinski [11] pro- choice of an objective function. As dierent ob-
posed to infer simultaneously weights, pro®les and jective functions can be considered, it is impor-
thresholds, we consider in this paper the problem tant to check the variability of the output to
of the inference of the weight vector only (in this the dierent functions. Does the choice of a spe-
particular case the mathematical program to be ci®c objective function strongly impact the re-
solved becomes linear). Our paper presents nu- sults?
merical results obtained in a laboratory experi- The paper is organized as follows. In the next
ment aiming at validating the practical usefulness section, we present the general approach used by
of the weight inference procedure in an interactive the inference tool. A brief description of the
process (preliminary results may be found in [14]). ELECTRE TRI method is given in Section 3.
V. Mousseau et al. / European Journal of Operational Research 130 (2001) 263±275 265
Section 4 describes the optimization procedure and procedure is used. The resulting ELECTRE TRI
Section 5 describes the experimental design. Sec- model is denoted by Mp . The user can tune the
tion 6 presents the results and Section 7 presents model in the course of an interactive procedure.
the conclusions. He/she may either revise the assignment examples
or ®x values (or intervals of variation) for some
model parameters. In the former case, the user
2. General scheme of the approach may:
· remove and/or add some alternatives from/to
The general scheme of our inference procedure A ,
is presented in Fig. 1. Its aim is to ®nd an · change the assignment of some alternatives from
ELECTRE TRI model as compatible as possible A .
with the assignment examples given by the user In the latter case, the user can give additional
(the user being either the DM himself/herself or information on the range of variation of some
anyone acting on his/her account). The assign- model parameters basing on his/her own intuition.
ment examples concern a subset A A of alter- For example, he/she may specify:
natives for which the user has clear preferences, · ordinal information on the importance of crite-
i.e., alternatives that the user can easily assign to ria,
a category, taking into account their evaluation · noticeable dierences on the scales of criteria,
on all criteria. The compatibility between the · incomplete de®nition of some pro®les de®ning
ELECTRE TRI model and the assignment ex- the limits between categories.
amples is understood as an ability of the ELEC- When the model is not perfectly compatible
TRE TRI method using this model to reassign the with the assignment examples, the procedure
alternatives from A in the same way as the user should be able to detect all ``hard cases'', i.e., the
did. alternatives for which the assignment computed by
In order to minimize the dierences between the the model strongly diers from the user's assign-
assignments made by ELECTRE TRI and the ment. The user could then be asked to reconsider
assignments made by the user, an optimization his/her judgment.
Inferring a form of knowledge from examples the set of indices of the pro®les de®ning p 1 cate-
of expert's decisions is a typical approach of arti- gories B f1; 2; . . . ; pg, bh being the upper limit of
®cial intelligence. Induction of rules or decision category Ch and the lower limit of category
trees from examples in machine learning (see Ch1 ; h 1; 2; . . . ; p (see Fig. 2). In what follows, we
[8,17]), knowledge acquisition based on rough sets will assume, without any loss of generality, that
(see [2,16,24]), supervised learning of neural nets preferences increase with the value on each criterion.
(see [1,25]) are well-known representatives of this ELECTRE TRI uses an outranking relation S
approach. The appeal of this approach is that the (see [20]), i.e., validates or invalidates the assertion
experts are typically more con®dent exercising aSbh (and bh Sa), whose meaning is ``a is at least as
their decisions than explaining them. good as bh ''. Preferences restricted to the signi®-
In Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis, this cance axis of each criterion are de®ned through
approach is concordant with the principle of pos- pseudo-criteria (see [21,22] for details on this
terior rationality (see [6]) and with the aggrega- double-threshold preference representation). The
tion±disaggregation logic used for the construction indierence and preference thresholds, qj bh and
of a preference model in UTA-like procedures (see pj bh , constitute the intra-criterion preferential
[3±5,15,23]). It has been also applied for the elici- information.
tation of weights used for the construction of an They account for the imprecise nature of the
outranking relation in the DIVAPIME method evaluations gj a (see [19]). The indierence
(see [9,10]). threshold qj bh speci®es the largest dierence
gj a ÿ gj bh they preserves indierence between a
and bh on criterion gj while the preference
3. Presentation of the ELECTRE TRI method threshold pj bh represents the smallest dierence
gj a ÿ gj bh compatible with a preference in fa-
ELECTRE TRI is a multiple criteria assign- vor of a on criterion gj .
ment method, i.e., a method that assigns alterna- At the comprehensive level of preferences, in
tives to prede®ned ordered categories. The limit order to validate the assertion aSbh (or bh Sa), two
between two consecutive categories is formalized conditions should be veri®ed.
by what we call a pro®le (see Fig. 2). The assign- · concordance: for an outranking aSbh (or bh Sa)
ment of an alternative a results from the compar- to be accepted, a ``sucient'' majority of criteria
ison of a with the pro®les de®ning the limits of the should be in favor of this assertion,
categories. Let F denote the set of the indices of · non-discordance: when the concordance condi-
the criteria g1 ; g2 ; . . . ; gm F f1; 2; . . . ; mg and B tion holds, none of the criteria in the minority
(disjunctive rule). When k decreases, the conjunc- the ``correct'' category. If, however, one or both of
tive and disjunctive characters of these rules are these values are negative, the ELECTRE TRI
weakened. pessimistic assignment procedure will assign al-
ternative ak to a ``wrong'' category. The lower the
minimum of these two values, the less adapted is
4. The optimization procedure the model Mp to give an account of the assignment
of ak made by the DM. Moreover, if xk and yk are
The set p of parameters of an ELECTRE TRI both positive then ak is assigned consistently with
model are: the DM's statement for all k0 2 k ÿ y k; k xk .
· the pro®les de®ned by their evaluations Let us consider now the set of alternatives
gj bh 8j 2 F ; 8h 2 B, A A where card A n and suppose that the
· the importance coecients wj 8j 2 F ; DM has assigned the alternative ak to the category
· the indierence and preference thresholds Chk 8ak 2 A . The model Mp will be consistent with
qj bh ; pj bh 8j 2 F ; 8h 2 B; DM's assignments i xk P 0 and yk P 0 8k such
· the veto thresholds vj bh 8j2 2 F ; 8h 2 B. that ak 2 A .
The conducted experiment considered the case Consistently with the preceding argument, an
where the pro®les and thresholds are known and accuracy criterion can be de®ned as
where the weights are to be inferred. Moreover, we
max fminfxk ; yk gg: 5
will con®ne our analysis to the case where the k : ak 2A
pessimistic assignment procedure is used.
We obtain a standard MaxMin problem. If the
accuracy criterion takes a non-negative value then
4.1. Variables of the problem all alternatives contained in A are ``correctly''
assigned for all
In ELECTRE TRI pessimistic assignment
procedure, an alternative ak is assigned to category k0 2 k ÿ min fyk g; k min fxk g:
k : ak 2A k : ak 2A
Ch (bhÿ1 and bh being the lower and upper pro®les
of Ch , respectively) i rp ak ; bhÿ1 P k and This criterion, however, takes into account the
rp ak ; bh < k (where rp is the credibility index ``worst case'' only, i.e., the alternative for which
related to the set of parameters p). the ELECTRE TRI model gives the most dierent
Let us suppose that the DM has assigned the assignment from the DM. An accuracy criterion
alternative ak 2 A category Chk ak ! Chk . Let us should be able to take into account an average
de®ne the slack variables xk and yk such that information concerning the accuracy of the model,
rp ak ; bhkÿ1 ÿ xk k and rp ak ; bhk yk k. i.e., its overall ability to assign the alternatives
The optimization problem will include the fol- from A to the correct category. Hence, we pro-
lowing variables: pose to replace criterion (5) by the following one:
( )
xk ; yk 8k such that ak 2 A slack variables (2n) X
k cutting level (1) max min fxk ; yk g e xk y k ; 6
k : ak 2A
k : ak 2A
wj 8j 2 F importance coe-
cients (m) where e is a small positive value. Eq. (6) can be
rewritten as
( )
X
4.2. An accuracy criterion max ae xk yk ; 7
k:ak 2A
If the values of the slack variables xk and yk are
s:t: a 6 xk 8k such that ak 2 A ; 8
both positive then ELECTRE TRI pessimistic
assignment procedure will assign alternative ak to a 6 yk 8k such that ak 2 A : 9
V. Mousseau et al. / European Journal of Operational Research 130 (2001) 263±275 269
4.3. Constraints of the problem As the objective function and all constraints are
linear, the above problem is a linear programming
The constraints of the optimization problem problem. It contains 2n m 1 variables and
are the following: 4n m 2 constraints. Let us remark that the
slack variables xk and yk can be eliminated from
rp ak ; bhkÿ1 ÿ xk k de®nition of the slack the problem formulation since they are de®ned by
8k : ak 2 A variables xk n the constraints (13) and (14). This elimination re-
rp ak ; bhk yk k de®nition of the slack duces the number of variables.
8k : ak 2 A variables yk n
a 6 xk ; a 6 yk 8k : de®nition of a (2n)
a k 2 A 5. Experimental design
k 2 0:5; 1 interval of variation for k
(2) This experiment is a laboratory work, i.e., takes
wj P 0 8j 2 F non-negativity its material in a past real world case study to
constraints (m) perform a posteriori computations in order to test
Additional constraints can be added in the the operational validity of the optimization model
course of the interactive procedure in order to proposed in Section 4. The data considered comes
take into account an intuitive view of the DM from the real world application described in
on the value of some parameters. For instance, if [26,27].
the DM does not consider any criterion as aP dic- This application considers the problem of as-
m
tator, an appropriate constraint is wj 6 1=2 i1 signing a set A of 100 alternatives A fa1 ;
wi 8j 2 F : a2 ; . . . ; a100 g is described in [7]) to three (the initial
data speci®ed 5 categories; we grouped the three
top categories C3 ; C4 and C5 as none of the al-
4.4. Optimization problem to be solved
ternatives were assigned by the ELECTRE TRI
model to C4 and C5 ) ordered categories C1 ; C2 and
The basic form of the optimization problem to
C3 (two limit pro®les b1 and b2 de®ne the ``fron-
be solved is the following:
( ) tiers'' C1 ÿ C2 and C2 ÿ C3 ) on the basis of 7 cri-
X teria (preferences on all criteria are decreasing with
max a e xk yk 10 the evaluations, i.e., the lower the better).
k:ak 2A
As no interaction with the DM is possible, we
s:t: consider the assignment of ELECTRE TRI pessi-
a 6 xk 8k such that ak 2 A ; 11 mistic assignment procedure (with the parameters
a 6 yk 8k such that ak 2 A ; 12 given in [26]) as assignment examples expressed by
a ``®ctitious'' DM. The experimental method
Xm
wj cj ak ; bhk ÿ1 ÿ xk k consist in using the optimization procedure with
j1 dierent subsets of assignment examples to infer
8k such thatak 2 A ; 13 the weights that ``best'' match with the examples
(with the given values for pro®les and thresholds).
X
m
wj cj ak ; bhk yk k So as to get consistent results, we generate 80
j1 subsets of A, the cardinality of these subset being
8k such that ak 2 A ; 14 either 6, 12, 18, 24, 30, 36, 42 or 48 (10 sets of each
size were generated). Each of these subsets is
X
m
wj 1; 15 conceived so that the alternatives are assigned
j1 uniformly on the three categories. Let us denote Aji
k 2 0:5; 1; 16 the jth set of size i. In order to test the ability of the
optimization procedure to identify inconsistent
wj P 0; 8j 2 F : 17 information (see Section 6.3), we consider Errji
270 V. Mousseau et al. / European Journal of Operational Research 130 (2001) 263±275
j
Table 2 Let us denote by a100 opt Ai the maximum varia-
Improvement of the ``stability'' of assignments tion on the cutting level k preserving correct as-
Size: i aopt i adm i aopt i ÿ adm i signment for all 100 alternatives with the weights
6 0.24 0.08 0.16 inferred from Aji . Let a100 opt i be the mean value of
j
12 0.23 0.02 0.21 the a100
opt A i , for all sets Aji of size i.
18 0.21 0.08 0.13 j
Let us denote by err100 opt Ai the number of
24 0.20 0.02 0.18
30 0.19 0.08 0.11 ``wrong'' assignments among the 100 alternatives
36 0.18 0.03 0.15 with the weights inferred from Aji . Let err100 opt i be
j
42 0.18 0.02 0.16 the mean value of the err100 opt A i , for all sets Aji of
48 0.10 0.02 0.08 size i. The results of the computations are grouped
Mean 0.15 in Table 3.
As foreseen, the results show that a100 opt i in-
creases and err100 opt i decreases with the size i of the
set. Moreover, a100 opt i becomes positive for 12 <
that enables ELECTRE TRI to reassign the al-
i < 18; such a positive value means that weights
ternatives in a very stable way.
inferred from a set of i assignment examples is
able (in mean value) to reassign correctly all 100
alternatives.
6.2. Which ``amount'' of information is necessary to The number of parameters to be inferred
infer the weights in a reliable way? (weights wj ) depend on the number of criteria
only. Considering the above results, 2 m (m
In order to infer in a reliable way a weight being the number of criteria) seems to be a
vector wopt , the optimization procedure requires reasonable number of assignment examples to
information as input, i.e., on the set of assignment infer the weights in a reliable way (as 7 criteria
examples. What is the amount of information are considered, 12 < 2m < 18). However, it is
necessary to ``calibrate'' the model in a satisfactory important to notice that using a set Aji of 2m
way? How large should A be in order to derive assignment examples does not always infer
j
wopt in a reliable manner? This question is essential weights such that err100 opt Ai 0, i.e., some al-
for practical use to the inference model in real ternatives mights be incorrectly reassigned.
world decision problems. The analyst should have Nevertheless, the 2m seems to us a good balance
some simple guidelines to manage the interaction between number of examples required from the
with the DM avoiding unnecessary question, but DM (necessary limited) and the reliability of the
collecting a sucient information. inferred weights. This result needs to be rein-
In order to determine a ``reasonable amount forced by a replication of this experiment, par-
of information'' to infer the weights, we use the ticularly in the case where the number of
following experimental scheme: the optimization categories exceeds 3.
procedure is performed using dierent sets of
assignment examples, whose size varies from 6 to
48 (10 sets for each size, see Section 5). We
Table 3
observe then the ability of ELECTRE TRI using Information required to infer weights reliably
the inferred weights to assign correctly the whole
Size: i a100
opt i err100
opt i
set of 100 alternatives. Obviously the ability of
6 )0.093 4.4
ELECTRE TRI using the inferred weights to
12 )0.088 4.0
reassign all alternatives correctly increases with 18 0.076 0.6
the size of the set from which the weights are 24 0.129 0.2
derived. However, the number of assignment 30 0.157 0.0
examples expressed by the DM should not be 36 0.112 0.4
42 0.164 0.0
too large.
272 V. Mousseau et al. / European Journal of Operational Research 130 (2001) 263±275
· a ®rst component which leads to an optimum ditive objective function. More precisely, what is
that account only for the alternative that is the the ability of wmaxmin and wadd to reassign correctly
most dicult to assign correctly, the whole set of 100 alternatives. Tables 5 and 6
100
· a second additive component in which a stable presents the values of a100opt i and erropt i (see
assignment may be compensated by a less stable Section 6.2).
one; this second component account for the We observe that:
overall ability of the obtained weight vector to · when the set of assignment examples is insu-
assign the alternatives correctly. ciently large (612, see Section 6.2), wmaxmin and
The parameter e enables to tune z(e) in direction wadd are equally accurate,
of one of its two components (e 0 leads to a · when sucient information is provided, the
standard MaxMin criterion while a suciently maxmin criterion leads to slightly more robust
large value for a leads to an additive criterion). weights,
In our experiment, we perform the computa- · the number of incorrectly reassigned alterna-
tions for e 10; 10ÿ2 ; 10ÿ1 ; 100 ; 101 ; 102 and tives are almost always equal when using
for each set Aji ; i 6; 12; 24; 30; 36; 42; 48; j wmaxmin and wadd .
1; . . . ; 10. Firstly we can observe that dierent While both objective functions give good re-
values for e leads to dierent results. Obviously, we sults, a slight advantage is observed in favor of the
observe that optimal value for Pa decreases when e maxmin criterion in terms of the stability of reas-
increases and 1=card A k : ak 2A xk yk in- signments.
creases with e. In other words, the stability of the
worst case deteriorates while the ``mean stability''
increases when we emphasize the additive com-
ponent of the objective function. 7. Conclusions
A more interesting point deals with the com-
parative reliability of the weights wmaxmin and wadd This paper presents an experimental validation
inferred using a pure maxmin and a standard ad- of a procedure aiming at inferring the weights
Table 5
a100
opt i: ability of w to reassign alternatives
e Size: i
6 12 18 24 30 36 42
0.001 )0.093 )0.088 0.076 0.129 0.157 0.112 0.164
0.01 )0.093 )0.088 0.076 0.129 0.157 0.112 0.164
0.1 )0.093 )0.088 0.076 0.129 0.157 0.112 0.164
1 )0.093 )0.088 0.076 0.129 0.157 0.112 0.164
10 )0.093 )0.088 0.076 0.129 0.157 0.112 0.164
100 )0.093 )0.088 0.076 0.129 0.157 0.112 0.164
Table 6
err100
opt i: number of incorrect reassignments
e Size: i
6 12 18 24 30 36 42
0.001 4.4 4.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.0
0.01 4.4 4.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.0
0.1 4.4 4.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.0
1 4.4 4.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.0
10 4.4 4.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.0
100 4.4 4.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.0
274 V. Mousseau et al. / European Journal of Operational Research 130 (2001) 263±275
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