OIES CHINA PROGRAMME:

An update on China’s EV Revolution

Anders Hove
Senior Research Fellow, OIES

1 February 2024

HTTPS://WWW.OXFORDENERGY.ORG/
 Background and contents

• Updates on the latest EV statistics from various Chinese organizations:

– EV sales and market share: China and the world
– EV sales by vehicle price, type, size
– EV batteries and the growth of LFP share
– EV emissions
– EV charging: number of chargers, electricity consumption
– Charging experience
• Additional analysis from the author’s prior research,
• Summary of 2024 research questions

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

 China EV sales continue to grow

China domestic New Energy Vehicle (NEV) sales, 2017-2023, and market share
9,000 33% 35%

8,000
30%
7,000 26%
NEV sales
25%
6,000 NEV share

5,000 20%
16%
4,000 15%
3,000
10%
2,000 6%
4% 5%
5%
1,000 2%

- 0%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
CAAM, based on domestic sales share of all vehicles, author calculations

• Industry projects 40% market share in 2024; CPCA 11 million sales in 2024
• Linear growth in NEV sales would yield sales of 10.5 million, a 40% share
• Compound growth of 33% would yield sales of 12 million, a 42% share
ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024
 China NEV market ahead of other major regions

2023 NEV market shares

BEV and PHEV market share by region, 2023

35%
BEV PHEV
30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
China EU UK US

Source: ACEA 2024, HeyCar 2024, Cox Auto Inc 2024, InsideEVs 2024, and author calculations

Note: China share represents all vehicles, other countries light-duty passenger vehicles only

• China remains well ahead of other major auto markets in EV penetration

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024
 Penetration of overall vehicle fleet rising slowly
NEVs as share of total China vehicle stock under S-curve adoption
100%
90%
87%
90% High case: 84%
79%
80%
NEV sales rise 73%
by 2m / year until 68% 80%
70% 76%
100% share 62%
73%
56% 68%
60%
50% 63%
50% 44% 57%
38% 51%
Govt target case:
40% 32% 45% 45% share by 2027,
30%
26% 40% 65% by 2030
21% 35%
17% 30%
20% 13% 26%
9% 22%
6% 18%
10% 15%
12%
9%
0% 6%
2023 2028 2033 2038
Source: Anders Hove, OIES, 2024

• Though EV sales growth has slowed, the market is still rising at around 2m vehicles / year
• Carrying this rate forward, China would reach 100% NEV market share around 2027
• Assuming vehicles last 15 years, this yields a 50% NEV share in the vehicle fleet by 2032
• Using government target of 45% sales in 2027 and 65% in 2030, EV stock lower by about
10 pp
ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024
 Several factors other than subsidies at work
Top NEV cities in Dec 2022 Customer satisfaction results
(green indicates license plate limit)
Shanghai NEV Fossil vehicle
Hangzhou
Overall 81 80
Guangzhou

Shenzhen
Brand image 81.9 81.4
Chongqing

Beijing Quality/reliability 80.0

81.3
Chengdu

Zhengzhou Sales/service 81 78
satisfaction
Suzhou

Wuhan

Source: CPCA/WAYS 2023 Source: China Association of Quality, 2023

• While license plate restrictions and local subsidies still matter, CPCA predicts most growth outside
leading cities in 2024
• NEVs perform better on customer satisfaction metrics; NIO, BMW, Mercedes, BYD, and Tesla
scoring well, smaller and lower-end vehicles scoring below fossil vehicles
ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024
 Mid-range NEVs showed strongest growth
NEV sales by price category, 2021 to 2023
NEV sales by price category NEV sales by price category (%)
(thousands) 100%
10,000
90%
9,000
80%
8,000
70%
7,000
60%
6,000
50%
5,000
40%
4,000
3,000 30%

2,000 20%

1,000 10%
- 0%
2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023
Under 8k 80-100k 100-150k Under 8k 80-100k
150-200k 200-250k 250-300k 100-150k 150-200k
200-250k 250-300k
300-350k 350-400k 400-500k 300-350k 350-400k
Over 500k 400-500k Over 500k
Source: OIES 2024; data from CAAM 2024

• 32% of sales are priced at RMB 150,000 – 200,000 (roughly US$ 24,000 – 30,000)
• All categories showed strong growth, led by mid-range categories

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

 Larger-size NEVs showed strongest growth

China NEV sales by size category, 2021 to 2023

EV sales by size category EV sales by size category (%)

(thousands)
10,000 100%

9,000 90%

8,000 80%

7,000 70%

6,000 60%

5,000 50%
4,000 40%
3,000 30%
2,000 20%
1,000 10%
- 0%
2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023
A00 A0 A B C
A00 A0 A B C
Source: OIES 2024; data from CAAM 2024

• Micro-EVs (class A00) continued to lose market share, while other categories grew
• Strongest growth of A-class vehicles (includes sedans, crossovers, small SUVs)

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

 Monthly market share already 40%

Monthly passenger NEV market share, 2021 to 2023

50.0%

40.4% 40.1%
37.3% 37.0% 38.0%
40.0% 36.3%
34.3% 35.1%
32.3% 33.3%
31.6% 31.8%
30.1% 29.5%
28.2% 28.3% 36.2%
30.0% 27.1% 26.6% 27.3% 26.7%
25.7%
21.7% 22.5%
21.1% 20.8%
18.5%
20.0% 17.0% 17.3%
14.6% 14.8%
10.6% 11.5%
9.8%
8.1%
10.0% 6.8%

0.0%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Source: OIES 2024; CPCA monthly retail sales data 2021 2022 2023

• NEV market share increased by 10 percentage points for the full year
• Monthly share rose a similar amount, ending above 40% in Nov-Dec

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

 PHEV share growing as NEVs get larger

China NEV sales by battery category, 2021–2023, thousands

BEV and PHEV share of NEV market
(vehicle sales, thousands)
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
67%
3,000
77%
2,000
1,000 82%
-
2021 2022 2023
BEV PHEV
Source: OIES 2024, based on CAAM 2024 data

• PHEV sales grew by around 80%, compared to 20% for pure EVs
• PHEV’s grew 150% in 2022, and have grown 5x since 2021 (compared to 2x for BEVs)

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

 PHEV share growing as NEVs get larger

China NEV sales by size category, 2020 to 2023, percent

BEV and PHEV share of NEV sales by vehicle type
BEV sedan BEV MPV BEV SUV PHEV sedan PHEV MPV PHEV SUV
100.0%
9.3% 10.4%
0.4% 15.5%
0.2% 21.5%
8.4% 7.7% 0.5%
80.0% 9.0% 2.1%
17.0% 9.9%
23.7%
0.6%
60.0% 26.9%
1.1%
26.6%
1.0%
40.0% 1.0%
64.3%
56.9%
47.1%
20.0% 38.7%

0.0%
2020 2021 2022 2023
Source: OIES 2024; data CPCA 2024

• PHEV sales are capturing a larger market share mainly due to MPV and SUV categories
• However, SUV sales are also rising for BEV models, and BEV SUVs outnumber PHEV SUVs
• BEV sedans have seen the largest share decline, though absolute sales still rose 12% in 2023
ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024
 LFP greatly increased its market share

China NEV battery consumption, LFP versus NMC, 2020-2023

Passenger cars Buses Goods trucks
100% 2% 2% 1% 0% 3% 3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1%
90% 13%
80%
2022:
39%
70% 56% 61%
60% LFP
50% 97% 97% 98% 99%
90% 96% 97% 98% 125-135
40% 85% Wh/kg
30% 59%
20% 44% 39% NMC
10% 145-160
9%
0% 3% 0% 4% 3% 3% 1% 2% Wh/kg
2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023 2020 2021 2022 2023

NCM LFP Other NCM LFP Other NCM LFP Other

Source: CPCA and Kerui Consulting, Jan 2024

• Passenger BEVs account for 75% of vehicle battery capacity consumption, buses 7%, PHEVs 17%
• LFP continues to expand market share in passenger car segment, reaching 2/3 share
• LFP sales in vehicles grew 42% by GWh capacity, compared to 14% for NMC

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

 Battery production surging, overcapacity looms

China NEV battery production versus domestic consumption (GWh)

900
778.1
800

700

600 545.9

500
387.7
400
294.6
300
219.7
200 154.5
85.4 83.4 63.6
100 62.2

0
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Production Consumption
Source: OIES 2024; ESCN, Jan 2024 (2023 data); EV100, 2023 (historical)
• China exported 152 GWh, of which car batteries accounted for 87%; growth 85%+
• CBEA expects production of 1100 GWh in 2024, an increase of roughly 25%
• In 2023, sodium-ion and solid-state battery output started, still under 1 MWh/year
ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024
 Falling battery materials costs to sustain growth

Comparison of key EV inputs: year-end 2022 versus 2023

2022 2023 change

Lithium carbonate RMB 600k/tonne RMB 100k/tonne -83%
Nickel USD 30k/tonne USD 16k/tonne -45%
Synthetic graphite RMB 51k/tonne RMB 42k/tonne -18%
Natural graphite RMB 48k/tonne RMB 33k/tonne -31%
LFP electrolyte RMB 5.3 RMB 1.9 -63%
NMC cell RMB 0.92/Wh RMB 0.515/Wh -44%
LFP cell RMB 0.825/Wh RMB 0.42/Wh -48%
Source: OIES 2024, CBEA 2024

• CBEA expects battery cells to reach RMB 0.3/Wh in 2024

• Lower capacity utilization expected, even with retirement of outdated production lines
• Industry optimistic on growth, willing to cut prices to retain market share
ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024
 China only gradually increasing national NEV goals

• Official target for 2025 remains 20% market share

for NEVs, set in 2020
• December 2023 Beautiful China policy included
target of 45% for 2027
• November 2023 MIIT document suggested 65%
for 2030
• Recent policy targeting overcapacity in NEVs

• Air quality targets may encourage cities to boost

NEV policies, license plate lotteries
• Summer ozone an increasing air quality concern;
NOx and VOC emissions from vehicles are a more
important driver compared to PM2.5 (mainly
caused by coal consumption in industry and
heating sectors) Source: CREA 2023

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

 EV adoption contributes to carbon neutrality goals

EV, ICEV life-cycle well-to-wheels CO2, 2015-2030 CO2 of different battery types, 2015-2030

Source: Tsinghua School of the Environment, 2022 Source: Tsinghua School of the Environment, 2022

• NEV push initially began as an industrial strategy, but increasingly can contribute to carbon targets
• EV life-cycle emissions falling dramatically due to improved energy density, lower grid carbon
• EV emissions are at least 40% lower than ICEV emissions in all regions of China
• This assumes EV charging uses the average kWh produced by the grid in these regions, and does not account
for time-of-use charging characteristics

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

 Charging infrastructure grew at pace

China cumulative charging installations

7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
-
2020 2021 2022 2023
Public chargers Private chargers sold with vehicle
Source: OIES 2024, based on EVCIPA 2024

• EVCIPA estimates China has 2.7 million public chargers, of which 1.2 million are DC chargers
• In 2023, 3.45 million chargers were sold together with the vehicle, suggesting around 40% of
new EV and PHEV buyers have private charging
• Numbers likely omit some private chargers installed separately

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

 Coastal provinces lead on charging infrastructure
Number of public charging points per province, in thousands, 2023

Heilongjiang
11.2

Jilin
10.9
Xinjiang
11.7 Liaoning
Inner Mongolia 22.1
16.1 Beijing
129.1
Hebei Tianjin
Ningxia Shanxi 69.0 77.7
Qinghai 4.9 46.8 Shandong
3.6 138.1
Gansu
14.8 Henan Jiangsu
Tibet Shaanxi 116.1
63.2 217.9
1.2
Anhui Shanghai
Sichuan Hubei 121.9 171.4
106.6 139.8
Chongqing Zhejiang
57.4 223.8
Hunan
Guizhou 46.4 Jiangxi
37.3 42.7 Fujian
96.1
Yunnan
% 51.4 Guangxi Guangdong Taiwan
N/A 57.0 563.1
South China Sea
Less than 10,000
10,000-50,000
Hainan
50,000-100,000 43.6
More than 100,000
South China
Sea
Islands

Source: OIES 2024, based on EVCIPA data; the depiction and use of boundaries shown on the map are not
warranted to be error free nor do they imply endorsement of OIES

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

 Public charging electricity use fairly modest

China NEV public charging electricity consumption rising quickly

Charging electricity consumption (bn kWh)

60 0.6%

50 0.5%

40 0.4%

30 0.3%

20 0.2%

10 0.1%

- 0.0%
2021 2022 2023
public charging (EVCIPA) public charging (est)
total charging (est) fraction of total

Source: OIES 2024; EVCIPA data

• Public chargers delivered 35 billion kWh in 2023, up 69% year-on-year, using EVCIPA data
• Including estimates for State Grid and private charging, this could be around 50 billion kWh
• This higher estimate is around 0.5% of China’s full-year electricity consumption (=250,000 bbl/day)
• Assuming 20 million NEVs at year-end, December consumption represents 190 kWh per vehicle,
sufficient for 1000 km – suggesting large fraction of drivers use public charging regularly

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

 Utilization numbers are low

Average Chinese charging post:

30 kW, charges 39 kWh per day, used 77 minutes per day
Total charging posts Charging post speed (kW) Utilization

TELD TELD TELD

Star Charge Star Charge Star Charge
Cloud Charge Cloud Charge Cloud Charge
Super Charge Super Charge Super Charge
Nio Nio Nio
Dake Cloud Dake Cloud Dake Cloud
Shenzhen Net Shenzhen Net Shenzhen Net
China So Grid China So Grid China So Grid
Yiwei Energy Yiwei Energy Yiwei Energy
Hoo Energy Hoo Energy Hoo Energy
Thousand City Thousand City Thousand City
Celeste Celeste Celeste
Wanma Wanma Wanma
0 200000 400000 600000 - 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0%

Source: OIES 2024, based on EVCIPA 2024

• Previously utilization reported at around 10%
• Calculation from EVCIPA data suggests utilization around 5% for public chargers
• Average Chinese charging post has a charge rate of 30 kW, charges 39 kWh per day, for around
77 minutes per day – implies around 2-3 customer sessions per day

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

 Charging payment seamless, but given low utilization,
operations and maintenance not always good
At left, CAMS charger with WeChat QR code for
unlocking space, payment
Below, non-operating X-Charge station shown as
available in car navigation, apps

Source: Anders Hove photos, Beijing, 2022

• Interoperability: Most EV charging uses WeChat or AliPay, does not require app download or RFID card
• Apps and chargers still don’t communicate, broken chargers still shown as visible on apps
• Charging providers have inadequate incentive to maintain chargers or communicate with apps
• Battery swap has issues with queues and is limited to certain brands

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

 Chinese automakers are jumping into V2G
V2G / V2L prior to 2022: V2G / V2L in 2023: V2G / V2L in 2025:
▪ Nissan ▪ Nissan ▪ Nissan
▪ Renault ▪ Renault ▪ Renault
▪ Kia ▪ Kia ▪ Kia
▪ Mitsubishi ▪ Mitsubishi ▪ Mitsubishi
▪ Ford ▪ Ford
▪ VW / Porsche ▪ GM
▪ Rivian ▪ Hyundai
▪ VW / Porsche
▪ Rivian
• Note: the cost of making a vehicle V2G- ▪ Great Wall Motors
▪ BYD
capable is minimal compared to the cost of
▪ Geely
the charger ▪ FAW
• Prior to 2022, there were no consumer V2G ▪ Xiaopeng
chargers in the market except for Nissan Leafs ▪ NIO
under the Chademo standard ▪ Seres Automobile
▪ GAC Aon

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

 V2G frequently mentioned in policy documents

• 电力需求侧管理办法: 征求意见稿 [Electricity Demand-side Management Rules: Draft for

Comment], National Development and Reform Commission, 5 March 2023
• 关于加快推进充电基础设施建设 更好支持新能源汽车下乡和乡村振兴的实施意见 [Opinions
on Accelerating Charging Infrastructure Construction and Increasing Support for New Energy
Vehicles in the Countryside and Implementing the Rural Revitalization Programme, National
Development and Reform Commission and National Energy Administration, 14 May 2023
• 关于进一步构建高质量充电基础设施体系的指导意见 [Opinions on Further Building Out
Charging Infrastructure System], China State Council, 8 June 2023
• 关于实施农村电网巩固提升工程的指导意见 [Opinions on Raising the Quality of Rural
Electricity Grid Stability], National Development and Reform Commission, National Energy
Administration, and National Rural Revitalization Department, 4 July 2023
• 加强新能源汽车与电网融合互动的实施意见 [Strengthening NEV Grid Interaction], NDRC, NEA,
MIIT, December 2023: policy mentions target of 5 demo cities and 50 local pilots for bidirectional
charging

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

2023 OIES study of V2G paired with rural PV

• V2G has potential to help absorb over-production

of solar in rural areas
• Rural vehicles well-suited for V2G given more
sporadic driving patterns
• Under present time-of-use prices and solar
tariffs, V2G revenues insufficient to incentivize
adoption
• Current policy does not permit individuals to
engage in V2G or V2H; only aggregators and
pilots active

https://www.oxfordenergy.org/publications/bidirecti
onal-charging-as-a-strategy-for-rural-pv-integration-
in-china/

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

 Conclusions

• Despite slower growth, China’s NEV market continues to expand, and is on track to
surpass 50% market share for new vehicles in the next 18 months
• NEV sales are expanding for almost all market segments, but the most rapid growth
is among PHEVs for larger vehicles, though PHEVs are still a minority of NEV sales
volume
• Under either a rapid or slower growth scenario, NEVs are set to surpass 50% of the
total vehicle stock by the early 2030s
• Battery output is expanding faster than the NEV market, and the slowdown in NEV
sales growth has resulted in lower materials prices, which could sustain lower
prices for larger batteries needed for the mass market, as well as exports
• Charging has expanded enormously, but utilization is low; electricity statistics
suggest EV owners rely heavily on public charging, using electricity sufficient to
travel 1000 km per month
• Chinese EV brands and policy makers are focused on smart charging as well as
bidirectional charging, though efforts are limited to pilots

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

 2024 EV research questions

• China’s role in EV critical minerals supply chains, policies, markets, and

institutions. How has China achieved dominance, what is the outlook and
what does it mean for foreign companies and governments?

• China’s EV innovation under Western pressure for shifting supply chains:

This research examines how China became dominant in EV technology, and
how current global trade and industrial policy trends might affect this
innovation dominance.

• Continuous updates on progress towards deploying V2G: In 2023,

published 2 papers on V2G for integrating rural distributed solar. In 2024,
follow progress of local pilots.

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

 About the OIES China Programme
• Launched in 2019, the OIES China Energy Research Programme, is a centre
of analytical excellence offering insights into the factors that inform
China’s energy policies and choices and their pivotal role in global energy
markets.
• Providing academic expertise and rigor to inform business players and
governments on China’s energy policies, on clean energy advances and
challenges and on their implications for markets.
• Independent experts with decades of experience working in and with
China, with extensive contacts in the private sector, government and NGO
community in Europe, the US and China.
• Research Fellows include: Michal Meidan, Anders Hove, Philip Andrews-
Speed, Yan Qin, David Sandalow, Kevin Tu and Brad Simmons.
• The China programme also draws on the wider OIES network, offering a
unique combination of deep technical energy expertise with extensive
China knowledge.

ANDERS HOVE -- OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES – 2024

 Anders Hove
Senior Research Fellow, OIES
anders.hove@oxfordenergy.org
www.oxfordenergy.org

Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

The contents of this presentation are the authors’ sole responsibility. They do not
necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its
Members.