Tank vs. Battery Emissions 0202.2021

“Tank-to-wheel” vs.
“Battery-to-wheel”
Emissions Comparison
In depth analysis by the team at Paul Eichenberg
Strategic Consulting
ELECTRIC POWER GENERATION FOR EV CHARGING
EV electric motors have approximately 3-5 times more energy conversion efficiency than ICE engines when
normalized to 33.7kWh of thermal energy per gallon of gasoline
Energy conversion efficiency definition Energy conversion efficiency comparison
ICE U.S. vehicle examples in 2020 for efficiency Miles/kWh EV:ICE

(MPG or MPGe) equivalent efficiency
“Tank-to-wheel”
Honda Civic (1.5L) ICE 35 1.0
Fuel Fuel Trans- Compact
Engine Wheels sedan
3.4X
tank injection mission Chevrolet Bolt EV 118 3.5
EV Mid-size
Ford Fusion (2.0L) 25 0.7
sedan
5.2X
“Battery-to-wheel” Telsa Model 3 131 3.5
Battery Power BMW X5 (3.0L) 22 0.7

E-motor Gearbox Wheels Mid-size
pack convers.
SUV
4.4X
Tesla Model X 96 2.8
• Internal combustion engines convert the thermal
0
energy within gasoline into mechanical torque • The EPA officially normalizes energy 100
conversion200
efficiency by defining 1-gallon
• Electric motors convert electrical energy stored in of gasoline at 33.705 kWh of energy
batteries into mechanical torque • As a result, electric vehicles have calculated “MPGe” (Miles Per Gallon
Equivalent)
Source: EPA, Desk research; Eichenberg
Copyright ©2020, Paul Eichenberg and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved 2
In the U.S., fossil fuel electric power generation (coal+natural gas) has declined from 66% in 2014 to 63% in 2018 –
renewables had the highest growth rate at 9%/year achieving ~700GWhr in 2018 (16% of total energy)
U.S. electricity generation by source 4-year growth

(GWhr) (CAGR %)
Other
4,078 4,174 Total +0.5%
4,094 4,077 4,034
118 116 104 94 Solar +34.0%
95 93
29 182 191 77 273
259 39
249 55 227 254 Wind +10.7% Renewables
268 293 Zero-
300
Hydro +3.1% emissions
797 797 806 807
805 Nuclear +0.3%
• In 2018, natural gas was the largest source of

1,127
1,333 1,378 electricity generation at 35% of total power –
1,296 1,469 Natural gas +6.9%
natural gas-powered plants grew at 7% per
Fossil fuel year since 2014 in lieu of coal’s decline
1,582 • In 2018, renewable energy (hydro, wind, solar)

1,352 1,239 1,206 1,146 Coal -7.7% made up 16% of total electricity generation –
renewables grew at 9% per year since 2014
'14 '15 '16 '17 '18
66% 66% 64% 62% 63% Fossil fuel based (% of total)
Source: EIA, Desk research; Eichenberg
After generation, electricity is transmitted along high voltage lines, then distributed at two distinct levels through the
grid – 400V+ are used for DCFC and 120/240V is used for L2 EVSE
Generation Transmission Distribution DC Fast Charger (DCFC)

examples
Primary- Sub- Current customer EVSE customer

transmission transmission types types
Industrial/
25% DCFC
Transportation
240-480V
5,000- 69,000- 26,000-

Residential/
34,500V 765,000V 69,000V 75% L2
commercial Level 2 (L2)
examples
120-240V
• The U.S. grid has ~180,000 miles of primary transmission lines and ~180,000 miles of sub-
Step-up
transmission lines
transformers • All U.S. electricity is distributed to 4 customer types: Residential (41%), Commercial (35%), Industrial
(24%), Transportation (<1%)
Step-down
transformers • ~75% of U.S. electricity is distributed at lower voltages (120-240V)
• ~90% of EV charging (in terms of energy) is performed at Level 2 (mostly 240V) at residential homes
NOTE: EVSE = Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment

Source: Desk research; Eichenberg
From a GHG emission perspective, zero-emission electric sources are ideal for EV charging, but based on today’s
U.S. electricity mix rate, EV’s are aligned with PHEV’s (i.e. ~100g/mi)
Current GHG footprint by energy source (g/mi) Assumptions
Coal-based EV 232 100% of local grid is coal @ 950g/kWh

Fossil
fuel 100% of local grid is natural gas @ 450g/kWh
NG-based EV 110
EV charged
by electric
grid energy Nuclear-based EV 0 100% of local grid is nuclear @ zero emissions
source Zero-
emissions Wind, hydro, solar @ zero emissions
Renewables-based EV 0
U.S. weighted avg. EV 105 U.S. national average mix rate in 2018
PHEV 99 2020 Ford Fusion GHG rating

Vehicle
powered by
gasoline HEV 211 2020 Ford Fusion HEV GHG rating
(PHEV is
partial) ICE 2020 Ford Fusion w/ 1.5L engine
327
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

All EV conversion ratios use 4.1 miles/kWh (2020 Tesla Model 3 example) and ignores transmission efficiency losses
As the U.S. grid is expected to become cleaner in the long term, EV upstream emissions will further reduce
U.S. power generation by source (%)
100% 100% 100% 100%

20% 24% 28% 31% Renewables • According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA),
19% 15% 13% Nuclear coal-based and nuclear-based power generation will decline in
12%
all scenarios
37% 39% 40% Natural gas
39%
• The growth rate of natural gas vs. renewables will largely be
25% 22% 19% 17% Coal dependent on relative $ costs and state and federal regulations
'20 '30 '40 '50
Resulting avg. EV GHG performance (g/mi)
98 94
88
83
Upstream GHG • As the grid becomes “clean” with more zero emission
emissions from EV’s renewables and less coal, the EV upstream emissions will
decline
'20 '30 '40 '50
All EV conversion ratios use 4.1 miles/kWh (2020 Tesla Model 3 example) and ignores transmission efficiency losses; coal = 950g/kWh; NA = 450g/kWh
Source: EIA.gov, Desk research; Eichenberg
In the short term, utilities are implementing TOU incentives for EV charging during off-peak (e.g. 11pm-5am) to
leverage the night-time over-supply of fossil-fuel based power generation
U.S. residential single-family home power demand (kW)

EV Charging 4.0 Residential power needs:
• Utilities have started to implement • In a 24hour period, the typical home
TOU (Time-of-use) pricing for EV demands 0.4kW on average peaking
charging to incentivize night-time 3.0 at ~1.0kW in the evening (5pm-8pm)
charging 1 EV charging at night
• As a result, each home consumes
• Assuming a charge rate of 3.3kW for ~10kWh per day with major utility grid
3 hours, the EV consumes ~10kWh power loads in the evening
2.0
per day (i.e. 40 miles/day),
Typical home power needs
1.0
~10kWh/day
(area under the green curve)
~10kWh/day
(area under the blue curve)
0.0
-1 4 9 19 24
11pm 5am 11am 14 5pm 11pm
Off-peak Peak
Utility TOU pricing programs
pricing pricing
Thank You
T: (248) 670-9108
E: peichenberg@chief-strategist.com
www.linkedin.com/in/pauleichenberg
Web: www.PaulEichenberg.com

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“Tank-to-wheel” vs.

Energy conversion efficiency definition Energy conversion efficiency comparison

ICE U.S. vehicle examples in 2020 for efficiency Miles/kWh EV:ICE

Battery Power BMW X5 (3.0L) 22 0.7

Source: EPA, Desk research; Eichenberg

U.S. electricity generation by source 4-year growth

• In 2018, natural gas was the largest source of

1,582 • In 2018, renewable energy (hydro, wind, solar)

'14 '15 '16 '17 '18

66% 66% 64% 62% 63% Fossil fuel based (% of total)

Source: EIA, Desk research; Eichenberg

Generation Transmission Distribution DC Fast Charger (DCFC)

Primary- Sub- Current customer EVSE customer

5,000- 69,000- 26,000-

NOTE: EVSE = Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment

Current GHG footprint by energy source (g/mi) Assumptions

Coal-based EV 232 100% of local grid is coal @ 950g/kWh

PHEV 99 2020 Ford Fusion GHG rating

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

U.S. power generation by source (%)

100% 100% 100% 100%

Resulting avg. EV GHG performance (g/mi)

'20 '30 '40 '50

U.S. residential single-family home power demand (kW)

Source: Desk research; Eichenberg

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