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Ashwarya 2023 India S National Role Conception and Relations With GCC Countries Under Modi A Focus On Saudi Arabia
Ashwarya 2023 India S National Role Conception and Relations With GCC Countries Under Modi A Focus On Saudi Arabia
Ashwarya 2023 India S National Role Conception and Relations With GCC Countries Under Modi A Focus On Saudi Arabia
research-article2023
JAS0010.1177/00219096231162104Journal of Asian and African StudiesAshwarya
Original Article
JAAS
Journal of Asian and African Studies
Arabia
Sujata Ashwarya
Centre for West Asian Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia, India
Abstract
India’s conception of its peaceful role in international affairs, which evolved during the Nehruvian era, is not
an end in itself, but rather a wholesome strategic choice consistent with its economic development and great
power ambitions. Despite emphasising a radical shift in foreign policy, the government of Prime Minister
Narendra Modi deemed it essential to prioritise peace in international relations, particularly with the Gulf
Cooperation Council countries. The Abraham Accords, involving the UAE and Bahrain, have created a new
geopolitical environment that affirms India’s conception of security through peace and permits engagement
in key areas while ensuring economic gains.
Keywords
National role conception, peaceful role, Asia-centrism, peace and security, GCC states, energy, trade,
Indo-Saudi relations, security provider, Abraham Accords
This article examines the developments in India–Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) relations,
with a special focus on Indo-Saudi bilateral relations, by using the theoretical assumption of
national role conception (NRC). NRC can be understood ‘as the core of a grand causal map
which statesmen employ to make sense of the world’ (Shih, 1988: 600). K.J. Holsti in his ground-
breaking article, ‘National Role Conceptions in the Study of Foreign Policy’, was the first to
recognise decision-makers’ perceptions of their state’s role, that is, their function and purpose in
the international arena, as a critical variable influencing the formulation and implementation of
a state’s foreign policy (Holsti, 1970: 245–246). In other words, NRCs encompass ‘what “we
want and what we do as a result of who we think we are, want to be, and should be”, where ‘the
“we” represents nation and state as a social collectivity’ (Krotz, 2002). Holsti’s emphasis on the
ego (actors) dimension of roles was later supplemented by some International Relations (IR)
scholars with the alter (others) dimension. Characterising the former as internal role conceptions
and the latter as external role expectations, IR role theorists argue that these two components are
Corresponding author:
Sujata Ashwarya, Centre for West Asian Studies, Jamia Millia Islamia, New Delhi 110025, India.
Email: scheema@jmi.ac.in
536 Journal of Asian and African Studies 58(4)
linked to a state’s overall foreign policy behaviour or ‘role performance’. As Wish (1980) noted,
‘national role conceptions are strongly related to the nation’s foreign policy behaviour, which is
thought of as role performance’ (p. 534). Currently, IR role theorists largely agree on three key
elements in analysing a state’s roles: domestic role conceptions, external role expectations and
role performance.
This article contends that India’s foreign policy under Prime Minister Modi reflects the coun-
try’s national role conception articulated during India’s early years of independence by Jawaharlal
Nehru, the country’s first Prime Minister and External Affairs Minister (EAM). Despite the obvi-
ous denigration of Nehru in contemporary Indian public discourse and Prime Minister Modi’s criti-
cal references to Nehru’s pacifism, this is correct (Gupta, 2020). The Nehruvian conception of
India’s peaceful role in the international arena was founded on Asia-centric internationalism, a
rejection of power politics, a belief in security through peace and a preference for ethical statecraft
based on persuasion over force (Daulet Singh, 2019: 41). Another author, arguing along the same
lines considers India’s international involvement to have ‘an intrinsic national interest to see peace
and security in as large a region as possible’ (Bava, 2007). Even the most ardent supporters of
Modi’s ‘muscular’ foreign policy agree that, while India must respond to urgent regional and global
challenges and strengthen military capabilities, it must also develop the ability to provide ‘the
public goods required to strengthen peace and security throughout the [Indo-Pacific]’ region (Tellis,
2016). It is no coincidence that India is the second largest troop and police contributor to UN
peacekeeping missions, and it is the second largest contributor as of October 2022, up from fifth in
2020 in Modi’s India (United Nations (UN) Peacekeeping, 2022).
Another claim of this article is that the Nehruvian NRC and its core beliefs, which established
India’s standing in the world and informed the political, economic and strategic aspects of its for-
eign policy, continue to shape India’s external relations, and that the GCC is no exception. The
GCC states – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirate (UAE) –
recognise India’s role as a peacemaker and rely on it to keep regional peace and stability. The
purpose of this article is to determine whether the BJP government’s apparent revitalization of
India–GCC relations since Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office in 2014, and again in 2019
after a massive electoral victory, has changed or affected the impact of the Nehruvian NRC in for-
eign policy conduct.
In the first section, it investigates how economic and geopolitical factors interact with India’s
peaceful role conception in order to make a case for studying India–GCC relations. The second
section examines Modi’s electoral rise in 2014, which led the BJP to a landslide victory over the
Congress party – India’s dominant political party since its independence in 1947 – and whether it
signalled a shift in India’s perception of its role in international affairs. In the paper’s third section,
it is argued that the evolution of India–GCC relations enabled India’s long-held conception of its
role to manifest and that a complementarity of interest emerged between the two parties. This
involves a focus on India–Saudi Arabia relations through a semantic analysis of important agree-
ments. The fourth section investigates why it was ideologically important for PM Modi to reach
out to the GCC, as well as how his government’s foreign policy has changed and remained consist-
ent, particularly with regard to India’s role. To that end, the paper examines the distinctive aspects
of Modi’s outreach to the GCC and employs role theory to conduct a semantic content analysis of
official documents signed by Modi and Saudi Arabian officials. The final section examines how
emerging geopolitics in the region in the wake of the Abraham Accord can enable and facilitate
India’s increasingly close ties with the GCC states and Israel, which is no longer a pariah in the
region and is a friend of both. The formation of the so-called I2U2 forum, composed of India,
Israel, the UAE and the United States, and bringing together players with strong bilateral ties, can
signal the start of mutually reinforcing economic and political cooperation.
Ashwarya 537
India’s Defence Minister at the time, Pranab Mukherjee (2005), also made a statement, summaris-
ing the country’s economic and political concerns in the Persian Gulf:
Beyond the immediate region, India has vital interests in the Gulf . . . . The Gulf forms parts of our strategic
neighbourhood and important source of energy, home to over the 3.5 million Indians, and a major trading
partner. Parts of it are also a source of ideology, funding and recruits to the cause of Islamic radicalism and
terrorism.
The Look West policy aimed to strengthen trade, energy and security ties, with a focus on the Gulf
region and the GCC, as evidenced by the initial two Indo-Saudi comprehensive agreements of
2006 and 2010, which laid the groundwork for future growth of robust India–GCC relations.
Elucidating the significance of economic metric to state power in international relations, Gelb
(2010) argued that ‘most nations have adjusted their national security strategies to focus on eco-
nomic security’ and they ‘define their interests largely in economic terms and deal mostly in eco-
nomic power’. India’s leaders seeking great power status would likely concur.
all proximate neighbourhoods). A content analysis of Modi’s joint statements with world leaders or
foreign speeches reveals an abundance of phrases such as ‘peace and friendship’, ‘peace and security’
and ‘peace and prosperity’. After all, no country would ever admit to being an aggressor or a source
of conflict. However, if Modi wanted ‘real’ transformation of India’s role, he could have said some-
thing akin to what China stated in its Arab policy paper, ‘Arab states are China’s important partners
in . . . the establishment of a new type of international relations’ (Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2016),
or he could have sounded an impactful narrative for the Global South similar to what China has done
with the slogan, ‘building a community with a shared future’ (Yi, 2022).
Instead, in his widely acclaimed Shangri-La Dialogue speech in 2018, Modi spoke passionately
about how India’s foreign policy was based on ‘peace’. He stated that India’s relations with ASEAN
are built on ‘peace and friendship’, and that his government seeks to ‘cooperate for an architecture
for peace and security in this region’. Furthermore, the Indian Ocean Region transit route must
‘remain peaceful and free for all’, and ‘our sea lanes will be pathways to prosperity and corridors
of peace’. Again, promoting ‘global peace and progress’ required a ‘peaceful border’ with China.
Modi continues, ‘We choose the side of principles and values, of peace and progress, not one side
of a divide or the other’. Finally, the ‘future [of growth and development] that we seek requires a
“stable bedrock of peace”’ (Ministry of External Affairs (MEA), 2018b).
A cursory semantic analysis of Modi’s Shangri La speech reveals his copious use of the words
‘peace’ and ‘peaceful’, as many as 16 times, as well as values associated with these words, such as
‘cooperation’ and ‘prosperity’, 21 times. In contrast, the word military, which can denote the much-
vaunted force and muscle, is spoken only once; the word ‘force’ itself occurs only once (MEA,
2018b). It is not a coincidence that PM Modi asserted the ‘peace’ conception in an Asian context,
and his frequent use of the phrase ‘[we] seek’, as opposed to ‘we want’ reveals a rendition of per-
suasive politics. The underlying tone of the Shangri-La remarks was strikingly similar to India’s
existential position in the world, as articulated in the Nehruvian NRC.
With three visits to the UAE, two to Saudi Arabia and one each to Oman, Bahrain and Qatar,
Modi reaffirmed India’s Asia-centric foreign policy preferences, while his visit to Kuwait was
cancelled due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In all these countries, Modi spoke of regional ‘peace and
security’ in the same breath, implying that security cannot be achieved without peace, and thereby
reiterating the Nehruvian concept of a ‘peace area’ that is also a secure area (Daulet Singh, 41).
During his visit to Oman in 2018, the joint statement between India and Oman discussed bilateral
strategic engagement in defence and security to promote ‘regional peace and security’ (MEA,
2018a). The joint statement issued with Qatar’s Emir, Abdullah Hamad Al-Thani, during Modi’s
visit to the GCC state in June 2016 reminded the peoples of the two countries of ‘their responsibil-
ity for promoting peace, stability, and security in the region and the world’ (MEA, 2016a). During
his October 2019 visit to Saudi Arabia, Prime Minister Modi signed a joint statement with King
Salman bin Abdul-Aziz al Saud, expressing satisfaction ‘at the high-level consultation and coordi-
nation . . . on regional and international issues . . . in the framework of their responsibility towards
promoting peace, stability and security in the world’ (MEA, 2019a).
There are two things that stand out in Modi’s speeches and joint statements: first, they highlight
the deep continuities of India’s foreign policy, and second, there are unmistakable echoes of under-
lying principles of the Nehruvian NRC. In a similar vein, India’s External Affairs Minister S.
Jaishankar emphasised his country’s universalist outlook, as expressed by its belief that the world
is a family (Vasudeva kutumbakam in Sanskrit), during a speech at the launch of the Asia Society
Policy Institute in August 2022. He emphasised India’s unwavering commitment to a ‘cooperative,
inclusive, and consultative approach to international relations’, reinforcing the country’s emphasis
on pursuing peace through its foreign policy. In the same speech, he reaffirmed Asia’s centrality in
India’s understanding of its role, stating that the ‘progress of Asia’, of which India is a part, can
540 Journal of Asian and African Studies 58(4)
usher in a fairer world, and that an ‘Asian century’ cannot be realised until major states resolve
their outstanding differences so that they can coexist peacefully (Jaishankar, 2022).
India’s look west policy and the GCC: trade and migration
The Look West policy, an extension of India’s version of a peaceful rise to the role and status of a great
power, has resulted in strong commercial, security, and defence ties with the GCC states, resulting in
a number of entirely positive outcomes. Since the 1990s, ‘oil, economy, and diaspora have been the
driving factors’ in India–GCC relations (Taneja, 2020: 38). A structural shift in global energy demand,
evidenced by a shift in consumption from the West to the East at the turn of the 20th century, aided the
Gulf states’ overall approach to India. With its appetite for energy and investment, India’s burgeoning
economy presented an alluring prospect. As a result, the ‘Look West’ policy became complementary
to the Gulf’s perceptions of India as a thriving economy rather than merely a source of cheap labour,
and a market of 100 billion or more people became crucial to them (Pradhan, 2010: 98).
In 2005, India and the GCC signed a framework agreement for economic cooperation, followed
by a joint ministerial meeting in March 2006, the first institutional arrangement for cooperation.
The India–GCC Industrial Conference was conceptualised and organised by the Confederation of
Indian Industry (CII) under the auspices of the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and the Ministry
of Commerce and Industry in 2004. It has resulted in long-term cross-border business partnerships
and investments, as well as serving as a platform for exchanges between GCC and Indian business
leaders across a wide range of fields. India and the GCC began negotiations for a Free Trade
Agreement (FTA) in January 2006, but such agreements have proven to be more successful bilater-
ally than multilaterally. In February 2022, India and the UAE signed a free trade agreement. An
FTA is being negotiated between India and Oman.
India–GCC trade
When India began economic liberalisation in 1991, it unleashed an insatiable appetite for ever-
increasing amounts of energy. The GCC states anticipated India’s peaceful rise and were eager to
facilitate and participate in it through robust commercial engagements. There has emerged a strong
complementarity of interests between India and the GCC states, with the latter selling their abun-
dant hydrocarbon resources and the former, an energy-deficient nation eager to buy. Notwithstanding
Indian policymakers’ efforts to diversify energy procurement, the six GCC states have come to
dominate Indian oil imports, accounting for a critical 34% of the total oil imports. Three of India’s
top five oil suppliers in 2021–2022 were from the GCC, with Saudi Arabia being the largest, fol-
lowed by Kuwait and the UAE (April 2021 to January 2022) (Mitra and Kasliwal, 2020; Ministry
of Commerce and Industry (MoCI), 2022a; Press Trust of India (PTI), 2022). Qatar has emerged as
India’s largest LNG supplier, accounting for more than half of total LNG imports, with the UAE
and Oman providing 11% and 4%, respectively (Jaganmohan, 2021; John, 2022). Petronet LNG,
India’s public sector gas company, imports 7.5 million tonnes of LNG annually under a 25-year
import agreement with Qatargas, which expires in 2028 and is likely to be renewed (PTI, 2021).
Not only did energy consumption, but also the high demand for oil-based products such as petro-
chemicals and fertilisers, lay the groundwork for a more pronounced and mutually advantageous
economic relationship between India and the GCC countries. Many of these products have been
traded in both directions because of India’s strong refining and petrochemical capacity, as well as
its proximity to the Gulf (Calabrese, 2017; Pradhan, 2010: 98).
Aside from oil and gas, the India–GCC non-oil trade figures demonstrate the Look West poli-
cy’s early success. Trade between India and the GCC was around $10 billion in 2003–2004, but it
Ashwarya 541
Table 1. India’s trade with GCC countries, 2003–2014 (all figures in US $ millions).
Table 2. India’s trade with GCC countries, 2015–2021 (all figures in US $ millions).
steadily increased to $67 billion in 2007–2008. In just 10 years, bilateral trade between India and
the GCC reached $150 billion in 2013–2014. Between 2004 and 2014, India’s exports to the GCC
steadily increased, while imports remained higher (See Table 1). However, Indian exports have
been inconsistent since 2014, and imports, despite being higher, also exhibit an inconsistent trend
(see Table 2). Several factors contribute to India’s declining export trend, including a downturn in
GDP growth rate and manufacturing output (World Bank, 2022a, 2022b), with China, Japan, and
South Korea – all of which are manufacturing powerhouses – posing stiff competition in accessing
Gulf markets (Calabrese, 2017). The UAE is India’s largest export market in the West Asian region
and second-largest globally, owing in part to its status as a transhipment hub. Textiles, food prod-
ucts, information technology products, electrical goods, and machinery have found a lucrative
market in the GCC, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia ranking among India’s top 25 export destina-
tions (MoCI, n.d.). In the services sector, India has a comparative advantage over the GCC coun-
tries, which it can leverage to broaden its export portfolio.
India’s ability to import affords it economic influence with the GCC, but its ability to export
more will demonstrate economic strength. In a globalised world, ‘power shift’ requires a sound
economy with robust growth and development indicators, and this is precisely what would benefit
India’s great power ambitions. China, India’s Asian rival, has demonstrated how a strong economy
can propel a nation to global prominence and great power status.
542 Journal of Asian and African Studies 58(4)
Year Imports from Saudi Arabia Exports to Total %increase/decrease % share of crude
Saudi Arabia trade in bilateral trade oil imports
Crude oil Non-oil commodity Total
imports imports imports
2006 7.52 2.45 9.98 2.55 12.53 268.52 75.4
2007 11.72 3.68 5.40 3.45 18.85 50.43 76.1
2008 16.45 4.75 21.20 5.61 26.81 42.22 77.6
2009 10.64 2.56 13.20 3.96 17.6 - 34.35 80.6
2010 14.62 3.98 18.60 4.68 23.28 32.27 78.6
2011 21.08 4.72 25.80 5.44 31.24 34.19 81.7
2012 24.51 5.10 29.6 8.82 38.42 22.98 82.8
2013 28.21 5.49 33.7 12.5 46.20 20.24 83.7
2014 23.9 3.00 30.9 13.6 44.50 -3.68 77.4
aspects of Indo-Saudi role dynamics and the expression of India’s peaceful national role conception
in them. A content analysis of the three documents reveals the frequent use of the terms ‘peace’ and
‘Asian cooperation’, suggesting that India and Saudi Arabia link their energy, trade, commercial,
scientific, and security ties to these values and beliefs. Several references to civilisational ties and
cultural aspects attest to the two nations’ shared Islamic heritage and desire to preserve it.
The three agreements contain 24, 31 and 25 references to energy and economic relations, dem-
onstrating, respectively, the dynamics of Indo-Saudi consumer and supplier ties, as well as their
growing trade partnership. Security concerns are treated equally, as evidenced by the nearly identi-
cal number of security-related references on the Indian and Saudi sides. References to peace and
Asian issues are the most numerous in the trio, affirming India’s role as a global stakeholder pro-
moting international peace and solidarity. When combined with the emphasis on economic engage-
ment, it is clear that India seeks peace not only for its own sake, but also to create a conducive
environment for partner countries to develop and grow. The numerical symmetry of each reference
element in the three agreements mentioned above suggests that India’s conception of its role cor-
responds to the expectation of its role (Table 4).
India and Saudi Arabia mention security and defence concerns 16 and 19 times in their declara-
tions, respectively, reflecting their desire to engage vigorously on these issues in light of the rise of
Islamist extremism in West and South Asia. The Delhi Declaration established a joint Indo-Saudi
focus on counter-terrorism, whereas the Riyadh Declaration, which confirmed the upgrade of rela-
tions to a strategic partnership, marked the start of more structured bilateral defence engagement.
In 2014, the visiting crown, who was also the country’s Defence Minister, signed a Memorandum
of Understanding (MoU) for defence cooperation with India. This was the highest-level Saudi
leader’s visit to India since 2006, signalling Indo-Saudi intent to broaden their strategic partnership
(Kumar, 2012; PTI, 2014). Furthermore, India and Saudi Arabia established a Joint Committee on
Defence Cooperation, which so far met five times, in 2012, 2016, 2017, 2019, and 2022, to discuss
and implement training and capacity building, joint exercises, intelligence exchange, maritime
security, and the promotion of defence industries. Strong counterterrorism consultations continue
to make steady progress, as attested by Saudi Arabia’s ease in deporting an Indian national identi-
fied as the ‘handler’ of terrorists responsible for the 2008 Mumbai attacks (Lakshmi, 2012). The
navies of India and Saudi Arabia conducted their first-ever joint exercise in August 2021, indicat-
ing a strengthening of defence ties (Express News Service (ENS), 2021).
Declarations’ reference elements Delhi Declaration Riyadh Declaration Joint Statement on the occasion of the Official
(27 January 2006) (28 February 2010) Visit of Crown Prince, Deputy Prime Minister
and Defence Minister of the Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia to India (26–28 February 2014)
Energy ties (crude, energy, gas, oil, petroleum, petrochemical(s), 13 10 10
renewable(s), solar)
Economic relations (economic, economy/economies, trade/ 11 21 15
trading, commerce/commercial, business(s), industry/industries/
industrial, invest/investing, exchange, investment(s), market(s),
marketing, taxation, entrepreneurs, venture)
Science and technology (science, scientific, technology/ 11 10 5
technologies/technological, technical, research, space)
Security issues (security, strategy/strategies/strategic, cyber, 16 19 11
intelligence, terrorism/terror/terrorist, violence, extremism,
trafficking, narcotics, arms, crime(s), laundering, defence,
weapon(s))
Expatriate issues (labour, immigrants/immigration, Indians, 0 1 0
worker(s), workforce)
Cultural and social links (culture/cultural, civilisation(s)/ 16 11 5
civilisational, people(s), Haj, umrah, education/educational,
youth, sport(s), health/healthcare, medical, exchange(s))
Peaceful relations (peace/peaceful(ly), treaty, cooperation, 28 26 15
coordination, tolerance, religious harmony, brotherhood,
principle(s), value(s), belief, ideal(s), respect)
Asia centrism/Asian issues (India/Indian(s), countries, Saudi 59 50 63
Arabia/Saudi/Saud, Iraq, Palestine/Palestinian, Iran/Iranian(s),
Yemen/Yemeni, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Arab, region(s)/regional,
Asian)
elected in 2014’. Instead of conceiving of a new course of action, ‘the new government followed
the same course, but intensified what was becoming known as the “Look West” policy. . . ’ (Burton,
2019). Modi’s government unveiled the so-called ‘Link West’ policy, reiterating the Persian Gulf’s
critical importance for India in terms of energy imports and security, trade, investment, worker
outflows, and remittances.
Modi made a series of visits to the GCC states, where he signed agreements on trade and com-
merce, health and tourism, defence and technology, assuring them of the stability of the relation-
ship ecosystem left by previous governments. The sheer number of his visits demonstrated the
government’s priority without changing the course of engagements with the region. So far, India’s
outreach under Modi has been consistent with the GCC’s expectation that it will maintain long-
standing, peaceful ties. His travels to the region have provided the continuity needed for political
and economic partnerships to develop and flourish over time.
Declaration elements Joint statement during India–Saudi Arabia Joint Statement Joint Statement on Visit
the visit of Hon’ble Prime during the State Visit of His Royal of Prime Minister of India
Minister of India to Saudi Highness the Crown Prince of Saudi to the Kingdom of Saudi
Arabia, 3 April 2016 Arabia to India, 20 February 2019 Arabia, 29 October 2019
Energy ties (crude, energy, gas, oil, petroleum, petrochemical(s), 15 19 3
renewable(s), solar)
Economic relations (economic, economy/economies, trade/ 37 43 11
trading, commerce/commercial, business(s), industry/industries/
industrial, invest/investing, exchange, investment(s), market(s),
marketing, taxation, entrepreneurs, venture)
Science and technology (science, scientific, technology/ 10 12 2
technologies/technological, technical, research, space)
Security issues (security, strategy/strategies/strategic, cyber, 54 57 28
intelligence, terrorism/terror/terrorist, violence, extremism,
trafficking, narcotics, arms, crime(s), laundering, defence,
weapon(s))
Expatriate issues (labour, immigrants/immigration, Indians, 3 2 0
worker(s), workforce)
Cultural and social links (culture/cultural, civilisation(s)/ 21 32 13
civilisational, people(s), Haj, umrah, education/educational, youth,
sport(s), health/healthcare, medical, exchange(s))
Peaceful relations (peace/peaceful(ly), treaty, cooperation, 32 52 16
coordination, tolerance, religious harmony, brotherhood,
principle(s), value(s), belief, ideal(s), respect)
Asia centrism/Asian issues (India/Indian(s), countries, Saudi 94 96 47
Arabia/Saudi/Saud, Iraq, Palestine/Palestinian, Iran/Iranian(s),
Yemen/Yemeni, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Arab, region(s)/regional,
Asian)
Table 6. Investment (FDI equity inflows) from GCC states to India (all figures in US $ millions).
Country UAE Saudi Qatar Oman Kuwait Bahrain Total India’s total Share (%) of FDI
Arabia GCC FDI inflows inflows to India
from the GCC
2015–2016 985.14 10.82 2.10 55.83 6.17 15.34 1075.4 40000.98 2.69
2016–2017 674.70 11.87 16.43 14.51 11.52 80.27 809.3 43478.27 1.86
2017–2018 1049.82 125.16 0.23 28.92 18.85 19.67 1242.65 44856.75 2.77
2018–2019 897.62 20.09 9.13 33.01 7.95 8.79 976.59 44366.00 2.20
2019–2020 338.57 89.92 54.70 32.19 2.04 5.17 522.59 49977.05 1.05
2020–2021 4202.54 2816.08 159.44 15.12 9.07 2.90 7205.15 59635.54 12.08
2021–2022 1,032 11.55 240.86 11.52 5.04 0.21 1301.18 58773.27 2.21
Table 6 displays the GCC states’ investments in India since PM Modi’s pitch: From April 2014
to December 2021, GCC investments in India totalled $13.5 billion, and in 2021–2022, 2.21% of all
FDI inflows into India. Financial analysts attribute these low figures to lingering ‘uncertainties over
the policy environment or regulatory hassles’ (Mohan, 2022). Could it, however, be linked to a loss
of faith in India’s growth story as the country’s social divisions have widened in recent years?
Professor of economics at Cornell University Kaushik Basu observes that, since 2016, India’s
annual growth has been lower than the previous year, reaching its lowest point during the Covid-19
pandemic (2020–2021), but this cannot be solely attributed to economic policies. Basu asserts that
trust is the foundation of a thriving economy, noting that a society grows when its members trust
one another and begin to invest; however, in India, this trust has been eroded by the divisive politi-
cal climate regarding religion (anti-Muslim sentiment among supporters of the BJP), which has
had a negative effect on economic indicators (see Bakshi, 2022; Inamdar, 2020). The prospect of
profitable trade and investment in a high-growth economy, or ‘the rise of the Indian market’
(Taneja, 2020: 37), attracted the GCC states to India at the turn of the 20th century. India cannot
afford to lose sight of the fact that, as previously stated, the path to great power status is one of
economic strength. Nonetheless, in the midst of political turmoil and its potential economic reper-
cussions, the signing of a free trade agreement (FTA) between India and the UAE in February 2022
is a positive economic development, which will permit increased bilateral trade and investment
flows. Given the GCC states’ striking similarities in trade basket composition, economic growth
patterns and socio-political structure, the India–UAE FTA could serve a template for a larger pact
with the GCC as a whole or bilaterally with individual member states.
The United States has long been the leading provider of public security in East Asia and West
Asia, relying on alliances with Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, and Australia, among others, as well
as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Oman, to maintain its military presence project force, and
bring security to these regions. India, which continues to have the most poor people in the world
(See Roy and van der Weide, 2022), lacks the resources to become a net security provider. Comparing
India’s share of global GDP and military expenditures to those of great powers such as the United
States and China reveals a large disparity in terms of scale. India’s share of global GDP was 9.4%
compared with 18.4% for China and 13.6% for the United States. The United States’ military spend-
ing totalled $801 billion in 2021, with China coming in second with $293 billion. India ranked third
with USD 76.6 billion (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), 2022; World
Economics, 2021). India will not be considered a great power until it closes its growth gap with
advanced economies that can devote resources to military capability development.
The status of great power requires the formation of alliances in addition to internal military
expenditures and capabilities. When Jaishankar declares, ‘India will never be a part of an alli-
ance system’ (The Hindu, 2020), he reveals a pervasive and enduring belief among Indian poli-
cymakers that alliances, particularly their military components, pose a threat to world peace
and are, therefore, restrictive. ‘India’s strategic culture is such that it prefers to avoid formal
alliances; “strategic autonomy” has been a postcolonial rallying cry for decades’, noted Hagerty
(2009). India favours ententes over alliances because ententes are ‘more malleable than alli-
ances’ and eliminate ‘the negative costs of a more formal alliance commitment’ (Hagerty, 2009:
39–40). It is possible to argue that India’s aversion to alliances stems from a sober assessment
of its inability to project defensive power or become a net security provider in neighbouring
regions. In international relations, India maintains its conception of its role based on the insepa-
rability of peace and security. While this preference for entente is interpreted as ‘security insti-
tutions’ in Indo-US relations (Hagerty, 2009: 40), it could be understood as ‘strategic
partnerships’ in GCC relations.
The strategic partnership agreements between India and Saudi Arabia, Oman, the UAE, and
Qatar are highly nuanced and framed differently in each bilateral context, but they all offer the
potential for accelerated economic development. Thus, while the India–UAE Comprehensive
Strategic Partnership ‘has promoted and delivered significant investment opportunities’ (MEA,
2022a), it is critical to expand ‘trade and investment ties in order to advance strategic cooperation’
in the case of Saudi Arabia (MEA, 2019a), and ‘there is significant potential to enhance bilateral
trade in tune with the depth of India-Oman strategic partnership’ (MEA, 2022b). According to an
MEA annual report, the primary objective of India’s foreign policy is to ‘promote and maintain a
peaceful and stable external environment so that domestic tasks of inclusive economic develop-
ment and poverty alleviation can advance rapidly’ (Wadhwa, 2019). India’s conception of its
national role as a seeker of peace is not only a moral imperative to eliminate conflict and war from
the world, but also a strategic imperative for economic growth and prosperity.
Ecoppia, will manufacture an innovative robotic solar cleaning technology in India for a flagship
project in the UAE.
India recognised Israel in September 1950, but did not establish full diplomatic relations out of
respect for its Muslim minority at home and solidarity with Arab-Palestinian losses in the 1948
Arab-Israeli War. In a 1982 interview with an Indian newsmagazine, Yusef Hasseen, Israel’s consul
in Bombay, accused Indian politicians of being beholden to Arabs and rejecting his country, add-
ing, ‘You must remember that there is a strong Arab-Muslim lobby in Delhi. There are Arab ambas-
sadors in Delhi who put a very strong political pressure on you not to have normal relations with
Israel’ (Mehta, 2013: 102). Although Hasseen was recalled for his remarks and the consulate was
closed for several years, by 1982 India’s economic stakes in the GCC were substantial due to expa-
triate workers, oil transactions, and vital remittances. Considering India’s escalating economic
difficulties, no Indian government could afford to disregard these facts.
Since normalising relations with Israel in the early 1990s, Indian policymakers have pursued a
policy of de-hyphenation in their country’s relations with both Israel and the GCC states, establish-
ing strong parallel relations and reaping distinct benefits. Aside from the ubiquitous energy and
trade, strong ties with the GCC assist India’s leaders in deflecting claims of discrimination against
the Muslim minority and preserving the country’s role as a peaceful nation. Israel and India have
strong ties in areas ranging from agriculture and technology to defence and security.
It would have been unthinkable a few years ago for India to engage with Israel and the UAE on
a single platform like the I2U2, an emerging transregional geoeconomic forum. I2U2 stands for the
first letters of the four participating countries’ names: India, Israel, the UAE, and the United States.
The forum’s first summit in July 2022 follows the formation of the International Forum for
Economic Cooperation at the previous year’s meeting of foreign ministers of the four nations. With
a focus on issues related to water and food security, decarbonization, transportation, space, health,
and supply chain resilience, I2U2 members have studiously avoided using the term alliance to
describe the grouping. One can attribute India’s participation in a forum primarily intended to sup-
port the emerging cooperation between Israel and the UAE to the country’s multifaceted relation-
ship with the United States, particularly the convergence of interests in the Asia-Pacific region.
However, India’s eagerness to participate is better explained by I2U2’s positioning as an economic
forum with a focus on ‘capital, expertise, and markets’ and a non-confrontational agenda. I2U2
gives India another chance to capitalise on its peaceful role and continue to foster complementary
and economically advantageous relations with the GCC countries, Israel, and the rest of the region,
as is the essence of its Look West/Link West policy.
Conclusions
A nation’s perception of its role in international relations usually emerges during its formative years
as a state and can withstand the test of time. Since the Nehruvian era, Indian leaders and policymakers
have acknowledged and embraced their country’s peaceful role conception, which is supported by an
Asia-focused engagement, the establishment of security through peaceful relations, and the prefer-
ence for persuasion over aggression in international relations. These are not fanciful ideas, but rather
the result of a pragmatic comprehension of their country’s manifest geography, neighbourhood,
contemporary history, civilisational ties, and most importantly, national interests rooted in economic
growth and development. The preceding analysis demonstrates that India–GCC interactions, founded
on complementarity, reflect India’s enduring peaceful role conception and its underlying ideas, lead-
ing to extensive collaboration on issues ranging from energy, commerce, science, and technology, to
security and defence. As the GCC states are aware of India’s peaceful ethos, the country’s rise does
not pose a threat to them. In fact, the documents examined in this article reveal that India–GCC ties
Ashwarya 551
have grown precisely because there is no threat. While Prime Minister Modi may have desired a dif-
ferent role for India, one that portrayed the country as a ‘strong power’ as opposed to a ‘peaceful
power’, he, too, had to accept the concept of peace as defining the Indian nation. In India’s conception
of its national role, peace has a multifaceted meaning connected to development and security, both of
which correspond to national interests.
Funding
The author received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.
ORCID iD
Sujata Ashwarya https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6700-619X
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Author biography
Sujata Ashwarya is a professor at the Centre for West Asian [Middle Eastern] Studies in Jamia Millia Islamia,
New Delhi, India. Her research interests include the politics and international relations of the Middle East, the
political economy of energy, and India–Middle East relations.