Professional Documents
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All English Editorials 3101
All English Editorials 3101
Editorial Delhi
A
head of the Interim Budget for 202425 on endorsed by 34odd State legislators (this Hausing to publicly partake in the Arambais agenda only threemember team of the Union Ministry of
Thursday, the Finance Ministry’s 10year included a Meitei Pangal and five Nagas) three is Professor and reinforces the partisan image and the role of the Home Affairs (headed by A.K. Mishra, a retired
review of the economy with some for days earlier, the sixpoints oath (later endorsed by former Head, Meitei legislators in Manipur’s violence. There police officer and an interlocutor with
ward outlook, serves as a proxy to the annual the Chief Minister of Manipur, N. Biren Singh) Department of may have been applause following the Arambai KukiZomiHmar SoO groups in Manipur), to
Economic Survey. The review signals GDP will made explicit its communal overtones by Political Science, Tenggol’s triumphant shout of ‘Manipur na yai persuade the Arambai Tenggol to either cancel or
grow close to 7% in 202425, with scope to go castigating the ‘Kuki’ for unilaterally fomenting University of phare (Manipur has done well’) in Kangla as they postpone the event. In its ambition to upstage the
‘well above’ 7% by 2030. From about $3.7 trillion violence since May 3. Hyderabad, and also retreated to their camps in motor cavalcades after 38odd Meitei legislators (plus the Chief Minister
this year, India’s economy will expand to $5 tril Senior Fellow, Centre this event, but far from securing the interests of who later signed the pledge) as the bearers of
lion in three years, making it the world’s third lar Everything other than disarmament for Multilevel the Meiteis and protecting Manipur’s territorial democratic legitimacy, the Arambai Tenggol and
gest, and could hit the $7 trillion dollar mark by Federalism, Institute
The sixpoints oath called upon the Centre to do integrity, there are signs of a sense of insecurity. If this oath reinforced the communal and partisan
of Social Sciences,
2030, it reckons. Splicing India’s growth story in the following: abrogate the tripartite Suspension one is to go by the hostile responses on social agenda/interest of large segments of Meitei
New Delhi
to two phases — 19502014, and a ‘decade of of Agreement (SoO) that it signed with the State media, this event has also sharpened the nonstate actors and their legislators in targeting
transformative growth’ since 2014 — the review and KukiZomiHmar militants since 2008; emotional, demographic and territorial divide the ‘Kuki’ as the problematic ‘other’.
stresses that the state of the economy was ‘far implement the National Register of Citizens but between the KukiZomiHmar and Meitei. Although the Arambai Tenggol is largely seen
from encouraging’ when Prime Minister Naren using 1951 as the base year; construct a The immediate fallout of this was evident as a private militia (started and sustained under
dra Modi ‘assumed power’. Growth was hobbled borderfence across the IndiaMyanmar border; during the event as three legislators, who the patronage of Leisemba Sanajaoba, the titular
by structural constraints such as tardy decision replace the Assam Rifles with other central included Meghachandra, the President of king of Manipur, and the powersthatbe), it also
making, illtargeted subsidies and a large infor paramilitary forces; delete ‘Kuki’ from the Congress Pradesh Committee, were physically represents a calibrated organisational attempt to
mal sector, while inflation was unpalatably high. Scheduled Tribe list, and relocate ‘Kuki refugees’ assaulted by the Arambais for attributing the revive Meitei indigenous culture, tradition and
Post2014 reforms have restored the economy’s in Manipur to Mizoram. violence to misrule by the Bharatiya Janata Party religion (Sanamahi). Much like the radicalisation
ability to grow healthily with “longer and stron If these were implemented, they would not in the State. The muzzling of dissent and violent of youths in Punjab in the 1980s under
ger” economic and financial cycles, and made In only further expose the vulnerability of the intolerance stems from this. That the Arambai Bhindranwale’s Damdami Taksal, the Arambai
dia the fastest growing G20 nation, it argues. The KukiZomiHmar groups but would also Tenggol brooks no dissent and might unleash Tenggol has succeeded in reorienting many
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review asserts that India’s 7% growth when the effectively erase their longstanding protective terror was also evident when its cadres unemployed Meitei youth to the cause of a
world is growing 2%, is ‘qualitatively superior’ to discrimination benefits. vandalised the residences of human rights activist sovereign Kangleipak under the veneer of
8%9% achieved when the global economy grows In hindsight, had the above points been played Babloo Loitangbam and a retired police official, reviving Meitei’s fastvanishing indigenous
4%, perhaps, hinting at a few years of the UPA as themes of a Shumang Leela act to showcase Thounaojam Brinda, when they implicated the religion, traditions and cultures such as
era. This is debatable as India’s economy is gener what could have transpired in the real world, Arambai Tenggol for its role in this cycle of traditional martial arts that focus on the use of
ally delinked from the world with domestic activ patrons of Shumang Leela would have been violence. sword, and a horsemount dart as a weapon. In
ity driving growth more than exports. sorely disappointed by the inversion of its By giving in to the diktat of the Arambai doing so, the Arambai Tenggol has galvanised
Now that the twinbalance sheet problem in conventional themes, wherein brotherhood, Tenggol and Korounganba Khuman, its popular interest and support in quick time.
herited from the UPA days has turned into an ‘ad tolerance and justice, among others, are commanderinchief (out of fear of being labelled However, given that it operates in an insurgent
vantage’, as the review stresses, it must translate sacrificed at the altar of collective selflove and ‘enemy’ and ‘traitor’ of the Meitei ‘community’), space where the ‘radical’ agenda and interest of a
into a wider private investment revival. That perceived sense of insecurity. the Meitei legislators have abandoned their motley of nonstate actors including armed
would hinge on a broadbased consumption re Clearly, the legislators lost Tagore’s dream of primary constitutional duty and oath to protect groups which espouse a sovereign Kangleipak
bound rather than the Kshaped recovery the go ‘clear stream of reason’ and a fearless mind India’s Constitution. intersect and often either coalesce or reinforce
vernment vehemently dismisses. Four years of which should have animated their public action This dramatic event is also remarkable for its one another, the Arambai Tenggol is susceptible
7%plus growth, postpandemic, would be com even as they allowed themselves to be consumed symbolic and iterative significance. That an to manipulation and control by powerful social
mendable indeed. However, India needs to grow by the burning passion to protect the interests of armed militia chose Kangla Fort as the site for forces and political actors.
faster to create jobs at the scale its youth need the ‘Sanamahi’ and Meitei ‘community’. That this public oathtaking demonstrates its It is precisely here that one should be wary of
and ensure that a rising growth tide lifts most reflection and reasoned public action were determination to not only revive the glorious past the Janusfaced Arambai Tenggol. Allowing the
The Indian
boats, if not all. The review expects an ‘allinclu missing from the legislators’ public action of Kangleipak (the local name for Meitei Kingdom) mighty Indian state to capitulate to this armed
sive welfare approach’ to help enlarge the con became apparent as the sixpoints oath failed to state needs to from its symbolic and traditional seat of power, militia, or other powerful social forces, just
sumption base by expanding the middle class. mention ‘disarmament’, which was one of the be aware of the but also project this as a fulcrum to revive Meitei because it is amenable to cultural and nationalist
But those dependent on handouts, such as the four resolutions passed earlier by the Assembly. implications of indigenous tradition, culture, and religion appropriation by some vested parties in their
800 million that need free food by the Centre’s This is glaring given that almost half of the 6,000 the recent (Sanamahi). The event is also significant for electoral pursuit cannot be used as a ruse to
reckoning, must progressively shrink for growth automatic rifles and over five lakh rounds of live oathtaking another reason — that elected representatives of a denude what the eminent sociologist Michael
to be meaningful and equitable. The report right ammunitions from various police armouries that event by 38 democratic state, whose primary oath of Mann in a different context calls the
ly mentions reforms in learning outcomes, were handed over to ragtag mobs are reportedly allegiance is to the Indian Constitution, are very ‘infrastructural power’ of the state — that is, the
Meitei
health, easier compliances for smaller firms, as still with the Arambai Tenggol, the armed militia pliable and can be blackmailed under duress to autonomous power to regulate statesociety
priorities, with some critical changes at the ‘sub under whose diktat and supervision this legislators in capitulate to the partisan communal agenda of an relations. Otherwise, this public event could turn
national government’ level to accelerate growth. oathtaking event was held. Imphal, under unelected, and armed militant group. That out to be India’s Bhindranwale moment again.
It is also essential that flaws in reforms such as This, and the fact that much of the arms and the gaze of a elected legislators could be overshadowed in a
GST are fixed and some of the blunt policy tools ammunition continue to be in the hands of armed militia group democratic and constitutional state is disturbing The views expressed are personal
deployed, for instance, import licences and price
controls on deregulated products, that send con
T
he Supreme Court’s suggestion for a me indicators in the country, has estimated it to be as agriculture, construction, and domestic help. women formally counted in the labour force,
chanism to eliminate the perception of 27% from June 2020 to 2021. Normative literature Second, definitional issues and women’s own female migration for labour/employment
vendetta behind the use of investigative (Rajan et al., 2020; Jesline et al., 2021) usually Ruchira Ghosh beliefs also lead to an underreporting of increased by 101% between 2001 and 2011.
agencies against political opponents is sound in documents it as a maledominated narrative. is a PhD candidate at employment of migrant women. According to the However, they remain largely invisible, facing
principle, but may not address all aspects of the However, women, especially of working age, the University of definition of employment used by national significant hurdles and marginalisation.
problem. A case under formal investigation may comprise a greater share of the migrant pool but Massachusetts surveys, only those with some form of verbal or Consequently, this results in unaddressed
be scrutinised for its legal tenability or political there is little dialogue surrounding them. This is a Amherst written contract with their employer are struggles and a lack of targeted policies. From a
motive, but such a mechanism can do nothing concern given India’s falling Female Labour Force considered part of the labour force. political standpoint, women migrants are not a
about offences and allegations that are covered Participation Rate (FLFPR). It also raises the Consequently, women are largely classified as considerable vote bank, and, therefore, their
up for political reasons. During a recent hearing question of whether women face employment unemployed. needs are not addressed. Although recent polls
on a bribery case against an Enforcement Direc barriers due to postmigration conditions. However, what is often overlooked is that would disagree, political parties do not campaign
torate (ED) officer in Tamil Nadu, the ED sought women choose forms of employment that allow to gain migrant women’s votes. This has several
the transfer of the probe to the CBI. It also National surveys, inaccurate picture them to handle their domestic duties while detrimental outcomes, such as a lack of good data
charged that the State police was not sharing de National surveys such as the PLFS capture contributing to the household’s production or on female migrants and treating migrant men and
tails of FIRs it had registered on complaints information about female migrants but often Ahana Raina finances. Thus, working as unpaid family women as the same. This engenders
against Ministers, officials and others in instances convey an inaccurate picture. For instance, workers, in household enterprises, or being policymaking, which is poorly informed about
of corruption and illegal mining. The ED, pre surveys only ask the respondents regarding their is an MPA Candidate selfemployed is common amongst them (S. the needs, motivations, and conditions of female
at the University of
sumably, wants to probe the moneylaundering primary reason for migration. PLFS data suggest Rukmini, 2023). But they may view that as an migrants. Policies such as One Nation One ration
WashingtonSeattle
aspects of these offences, whereas the State go that the leading reason for migration among extension of their domestic commitment instead card, eShram, and affordable rental housing
vernment believes these details will be used to women is marriage (81%), followed by migration of a form of employment which leads to them complexes are examples of this as they are
target its ministers and officials as the State is run of family members (10%), employment (2.42%), misreporting their employment status. mainly targeted towards the male migrant
by a party opposed to the ruling BJP at the and migration for education opportunities population.
Centre. The Bench’s idea that an independent, (0.48%). There is no provision to know the Human and social capital
panIndia mechanism to vet such cases appears secondary reasons/motivations such as climate Notwithstanding these arguments, if indeed entry Steps to take
reasonable. However, much of the criticism of shocks and food insecurity, which can be a to the formal labour force is challenging, one To remedy this, several steps should be taken.
the use of central agencies against political adver crucial driver of migration for women. important factor restricting their entry into the National surveys should compile more
saries of the BJP stems from the view that similar In the same vein, data from these surveys labour force could be the need for more human information regarding their socioeconomic
allegations against its party members and allies regarding migrant women’s labour force and social capital. In the PLFS data, 85% of the conditions postmigration as very little is known
across the country are seldom investigated. participation can be misinforming. According to women have less than 10 years of education, about it. For instance, the PLFS indicates that a
Corruption allegations abound in several the PLFS, approximately three quarters of which can create problems. While there is no minute percentage (approximately 7%) have
States against key political figures seen as friendly migrant women are unemployed, approximately Women, significant difference in the educational levels of access to social security benefits; there is no data
to the Centre, but the Opposition parties believe 14% of migrant women are in self and especially of migrant and nonmigrant women, migrant for the rest of the populace. There is also a lack of
the CBI, ED and IncomeTax Department are wageemployed jobs and approximately 12% are working age, women are proportionally less employed than timeuse data (Nadal et al., 2020; Charmes, 2019)
hardly active there. The Bench is right in observ in casual labour. This round of data collection comprise a the nonmigrant women. Coupled with the lack of for migrants, as India has not made that the norm
ing that offenders should not be spared only be was during the COVID19 pandemic, which might greater share of social networks, especially after they migrate, yet. Timeuse data would significantly help
cause they claimed to be victims of vendetta. Its explain the low numbers, but does not India’s migrant these factors can significantly hinder their advance existing knowledge regarding
remarks disapproving of retaliatory arrests are al adequately underscore the problem of employment chances. unemployed female migrants. On a broader scale,
pool but there is
so salutary. However, despite the SolicitorGener underreporting of their employment status. Such barriers might also explain the dismal a change in narrative is required, starting with an
al’s argument that the courts could intervene in Anecdotal evidence and findings from the little dialogue recovery of women’s labour activity after the increased collection of femalespecific data. It will
the case of vindictive action, it has to be noted respective works of researchers Sonalde Desai and flawed data pandemic. A study by Yale University on this illustrate the largely anecdotal problem and bring
that the ED’s power to summon and arrest and Ashwini Deshpande suggest that it is not on this issue observed that after the COVID19induced awareness about the plight of these women to
anyone, and the difficulty in obtaining bail in mo uncommon for migrant women to engage in important issue lockdown, 55% of women never returned to their encourage progressive policymaking.
neylaundering cases, renders the Union govern
ment quite invincible if it chose persecution in
the name of prosecution. An unsavoury instance LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
of how far politics over the use of central agen
cies can sully institutions is the recent episode of Party hopping continues unabated. With The world of Test cricket predetermined scoops. The world of cricket West Indies has taken the
a Calcutta High Court judge ordering a CBI probe It does not augur well for the biggest show of all, viz., The aggressive brand of Bazball has definitely witnessed two of the best cricketing world by storm.
into charges against the ruling party in West Ben the health of democracy in the general election due in cricket, which the English created a buzz and shown Tests, won by visiting Beyond the records, the
gal, and a Division Bench staying the order. The India if we have maverick a few months, one has to coach Brendon McCullum that an unconventional countries. In this batsmen’s West Indies victory was a
single judge chose to ignore the Bench’s order, politicians like Nitish Kumar wait and watch how many has espoused, seems to be approach can succeed in era, the wins on account of celebration of the spirit of
accusing its presiding judge of political motive. In who change loyalties at the more such turnarounds are working well for England Test matches in India. India bowling performances are a the game. It showcased the
a welcome move, the Supreme Court formed a drop of a hat. in store for the general (‘Sport’ page, January 30). needs to come up with a boost to Test cricket. power of belief, teamwork
Bench of its seniormost judges and transferred The antidefection law may public (Inside pages, Test cricket purists must be strategy to counter this P. Ramu Selvam, and overcoming invincible
the whole case file to itself for disposal. The per have checked retail horse January 30). shaking their heads in unconventional approach. Palani, Dindigul, Tamil Nadu odds.
ception of vendetta can only be removed if all trading perhaps, but Sharada Sivaram, disbelief when they see Thomas Palocaren, R. Sivakumar,
agencies chose independence over subservience. wholesale horse trading Ernakulam, Kerala reverse sweeps and Vellore, Tamil Nadu The sensational win by the Chennai
CM A ND-NDE
YK
THE HINDU
Wednesday, January 31, 2024 9
Delhi
Opinion
Pulling Sri Lanka out of the abyss Gruha Lakshmi is not a freebie
It signifies a redistribution of resources by the government to a marginalised section
O
n January 9, 2024, the “satisfactory” meaning total IMF with higher fuel prices and
United National Party disbursement will be $670 million. variable fuel supply.
(UNP) proposed The EFF unlocked additional plier effect. Direct support
incumbent Ranil funding from the World Bank and Risks to Sri Lanka’s outlook STATE OF PLAY measures, including cash
Wickremesinghe as the national Asian Development Bank for Sri Lanka needs sustained transfers to households by the
presidential candidate for the budget support, social protection, economic growth of 56% in the Gourishankar S. Hiremath Union government during the
elections. This move may garner Ganeshan financial sector development, and medium term to escape from & K.S. Harikrishnan COVID19 pandemic, led to a
support from some political Wignaraja infrastructure development. indebtedness. But its outlook is swift Vshaped recovery of the
T
parties. In July 2022, sixtime is Visiting Senior Progress is visible after 18 vulnerable to external and internal he introduction of the economy. The Gruha Lakshmi
Prime Minister Wickremasinghe Fellow ODI and months of stabilisation policies. risks. The first is geopolitical Gruha Lakshmi scheme is also poised to bol
was chosen for his economic Professorial Fellow in Inflation fell to 4% in December competition between the U.S. and scheme by the Karna ster aggregate demand given
credentials by a parliamentary Economics and Trade 2023 but could rise with the China. For instance, an intensified taka government has reignited its target group’s relatively
majority to replace Gotabaya at Gateway House increase in Value Added Tax from U.S.China trade war following the the policy debate about wel high marginal propensity to
Rajapaksa who resigned following 15% to 18% in January 2024. The possible victory of Donald Trump fare programmes for the eco consume. Consumption im
mass protests over economic Sri Lankan rupee appreciated by in the U.S. presidential elections nomically disadvantaged and proves quality of life and also
mismanagement and rentseeking. 12.1% against the U.S. dollar in could be devastating for inward fiscal prudence. The scheme crucial step in recognising the boosts economic activities.
In April 2022, Sri Lanka became 2023. Foreign exchange liquidity FDI and trade in Sri Lanka. guarantees a direct monthly value of unpaid work. As ur The scheme signifies a re
the first Asian country in the 21st pressures eased. More import The second is debt cash transfer of ₹2,000 to wo banisation grows and the pop distribution of resources by
century to preemptively default capacity means shortages of restructuring. In November 2023, men who are the heads of be ulation ages, the burden of el the government to a marginal
on debt, which amounted to over essentials and waiting lines have Sri Lanka concluded an initial low poverty line households derly care is expected to ised section of society, recog
$50 billion. A devastating disappeared. The IMF projects a agreement with key bilateral in Karnataka. About 1.36 crore increase, especially for impo nising unpaid work. Nonethe
economic crisis followed. The GDP return to growth of 1.8% in 2024 creditors, including India and the beneficiaries are registered. verished families. Income sup less, ensuring that resources
contracted by 7.8%, year on year compared with 3.6% in 2023. Paris Club, to restructure $5.9 This means that the annual port from the state can alle to finance the scheme are aug
inflation escalated to 69.8% in Furthermore, foreign direct billion in external debt. This was outlay of the scheme is more viate the strain on such mented from direct taxes,
September 2022, the Sri Lankan investment in infrastructure, due important for reducing interest than ₹32,000 crore. families. In this context, mo such as levies on highvalue
rupee depreciated by 44.8% to Sri Lanka’s strategic location in payments and unlocking IMF Mainstream economics netary support to women can property and capital transac
against the U.S. dollar, and usable the Indian Ocean, may also be financing in 2024. This deal does not recognise activities not be seen as a ‘freebie’; it is tions and excise taxes on pre
foreign reserves fell to two weeks picking up. A joint venture project followed China’s separate debt primarily carried out by wo an entitlement for the care mium liquor, is crucial. Pru
of imports creating shortages of between India’s Adani Group and restructuring agreement with Sri men at home as economic ac work that women do, especial dent administrative measures
medicine, food, and fuel. Sri Lanka’s John Keells Holdings Lanka. These agreements are on tivities. Unpaid work encom ly women who face multidi to trim unnecessary expendi
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seeks to develop the $700 million similar terms, extending deadlines passes domestic chores such mensional and time poverty. tures can provide additional
Stabilisation policies West Container Terminal at and lowering interest rates. But as cooking and washing, while In a patriarchal economic resources to ensure timely
Mr. Wickremesinghe’s Colombo Port. The U.S. ominously, private bondholders, care work involves caring for system, women are often paid and uninterrupted cash
government, with members of the Development Finance Corporation who held about 40% of external the elderly and children. The low wages, which they reluc transfers. Therefore, a tran
Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna has committed $553 million. This debt (end 2022), are concerned participation of women in re tantly accept due to their li sparent and wellthoughtout
(SLPP) led by Mahinda Rajapaksa, will expand the capacity of the about the extent of the ‘haircut’ on munerative economic activity mited bargaining power. Un road map for resource aug
implemented an orthodox set of port and improve transhipment debt they could face. They say is abysmally low, while their conditional cash support not mentation is indispensable.
stabilisation policies. These trade with a growing Indian there has been little engagement burden of unpaid work is sub only helps women decontrol While fiscal prudence is ne
included raising interest rates to economy. with them due to the focus on stantially higher than men. Ac their labour power from the cessary, it must not come at
control inflation, removing fuel In a geopolitical twist, China’s talks with official creditors. cording to the Time Use sur system to an extent, but possi the expense of the welfare of
subsidies, increasing taxes, Sinopec Group, which will also Third, political risks could vey conducted by the National bly provides some cushion to the marginalised.
passing a law to improve the manage 200 fuel filling stations in derail the EFF and growth beyond Statistical Office, 57.3% of resist accepting reservation It is naïve to consider Gruha
independence of the Central Bank Sri Lanka, has committed $4.5 2024 — presidential elections are male respondents were in wages by enhancing their bar Lakshmi as a panacea for gen
of Sri Lanka and initiating billion to an oil refinery in the due in September and general volved in employment and re gaining power. der inequality. There is a need
privatisation of stateowned controversial, lowprofit elections in 2025. A doubling of lated activities compared to Empirical evidence sup to universalise such support to
enterprises. The government also Hambantota Port. Foreign poverty to 25% of the population 18.4% of women. In contrast, ports cash transfers to house women in recognition of their
sought Indian aid, intensified exchange constraints and an since the default, and growing 81.2% of women bore the bur holds in stimulating aggregate unpaid and care work. A com
negotiations with the International inefficient stateowned Ceylon dissatisfaction with the UNP and den of unpaid domestic ser demand and putting the eco prehensive institutional fra
Monetary Fund (IMF) on an Petroleum Corporation led to fuel SLPP, appears to be leading to vices for household members nomy back on a growth trajec mework at the national and
Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and shortages and hardships for the Sri support for the leftwing populist compared to 26.1% of men. tory rather than providing subnational levels and coop
also foreign debt restructuring Lankans during the crisis. FDI by National People’s Power. And Further, the burden of un sops and bailout packages to erative federalism are indis
talks with private bondholders China’s Sinopec in petroleum Sajith Premadasa, the leader of the paid and care work is dispro the corporate sector to revive pensable to address gender in
and bilateral creditors. Under Ranil refining and distribution may help opposition, who is the head of the portionately higher for eco it. For instance, according to a equality in the economy and
In March 2023, the IMF Board Wickremasinghe, improve Sri Lanka’s energy centreright Samaji Jana nomically poor women who study by IFPRIIndian Council ensure redistribution.
approved a EFF worth $2.9 billion economic security provided the energy Balwegaya, says he wants to are also engaged in wage for Agricultural Research, PM
over 48 months, emphasising market is open to all investors and renegotiate the IMF agreement. work, as they lack the resourc KISAN, a direct benefit transf Gourishankar S. Hiremath teaches
fiscal and governance reforms.
progress is visible a strong competition policy is Mr. Wickremasinghe deserves es to outsource care activities. er scheme of the Union go economics and K.S. Harikrishnan is a
The first review by the IMF Board after 18 months adopted. If not, Sri Lanka could be credit for pulling Sri Lanka back Thus, they are trapped in a cy vernment, enabled farmers to UGC Senior Research Fellow at the
in December 2023 rated Sri of stabilisation vulnerable to problems of a from the abyss. Only time will tell cle of poverty. The Gruha meet expenses other than Indian Institute of Technology
Lanka’s performance as policies private monopoly under Sinopec whether he can win the election. Lakshmi scheme represents a agriculture and had a multi Kharagpur. Views are personal
Most teens use social media, but lack skills to protect themselves F RO M T H E A RC HI V E S
While more than 90% use social media, only about 50% know how to block their profile or make their account private
FIFTY YEARS AGO JANUARY 31, 1974
A
mong Indian teenagers in in Odisha’s Sambalpur and Megha IndoU.S. rupee agreement initialled in Delhi last
rural areas who can’t even laya’s East Khasi Hills (Chart 2B). December, would win the approval of the
read a paragraph of text, In Nagaland’s Kohima district, Congressional Committees now considering it,
over 30% can still browse the Inter only 12.5% teenagers knew how to even though two Congressmen, who are
net and close to 50% can find a vi use Google Maps while more than traditional foes of all forms of aid, told the
deo on YouTube, says the latest 55% in Punjab’s S.A.S. Nagar could House Sub Committee on South Asia before
Annual Status of Education Report do this (Chart 2C). which the U.S. envoy testified yesterday that
(ASER) Rural. The report provides Notably, variations among dis they would oppose the “give away” programme,
several such insights into the digi tricts were the narrowest when it which would in effect write off the bulk of the
tal prowess of high school and col came to accessing YouTube: with U.S. rupee balances in India.
lege students in India. close to 70% or more teenagers in One of the critics of the IndoU.S. deal asked,
In the ASER survey, students in every district managing to do this “What has India ever done for us, except show
the 1418 age group were asked to (Chart 2D). enmity? Didn’t Mrs. Gandhi tell us to get the hell
read a paragraph. Those who The data show that digital litera out of there?” Another gave notice of a “sense of
could read the words but not the cy has penetrated deep into many Congress” resolution which would voice
sentences were said to belong to rural areas but a few areas are still disapproval of the rupee accord.
the ‘word level’. Those who could catching up. However, worryingly, Congressional sources, however, doubted
read the paragraph but not a many teenagers have still not whether such a resolution would gain the
bunch of paragraphs were categor learned to protect themselves approval of the House even though only last
ised as belonging to ‘Grade 1 level’. from the dangers of the online week the lower House had killed a Bill which
Those who could read many para world. While more than 90% of would have allocated $1.5 billions to the
graphs were said to belong to them from across districts used so International Developmental Association. These
‘Grade 2 level’. The survey was cial media during the survey week, sources also said that if such a resolution is
conducted in 28 districts from Sep only 52.3% knew how to block a adopted, it would have no binding effect on the
tember to November, 2023. profile and only 47.8% knew how agreement already entered into by the
Chart 1 shows the share of stu to make their account private. Governments of the two countries, though the
dents aged 1418 with different There were wide variations in ensuing confrontation between Congress and
leading levels who could do digital these skills too. Just 33% in Tripura the Executive could create an embarrassing
tasks on a smartphone. Among knew how to block a profile (Chart situation.
those at the ‘word level’, more 2E) and less than 30% in Jhark
than 30% managed to find a You hand’s East Singhbhum knew how
Tube video, browse information to make their profile private A HUNDRED YEARS AGO JANUARY 31, 1924
on the web, and set an alarm on (Chart 2F). A bigger concern is
their smartphone. Among those that the share of girls who knew France and Rumania
belonging to ‘Grade 1 level’, more these skills was much lower com
than 55% could do all these tasks. pared to the share of boys in many Paris, Jan. 30: A long and authoritative
Interestingly, most students, districts despite the fact that girls statement issued here now makes it clear that
across reading levels, found it chal form a majority of the victims of Rumania has finally renounced her intention of
lenging to find travel time on Goo online abuse. asking the French Government for a loan of
gle Maps. Table 3 shows the share of hundred million francs. It is explained that
These conclusions were made teenagers who could block/report inevitable delay in the French Parliament’s
for all the 28 districts put together. a profile and make their profile voting loans compels Rumania to seek other
If the data are analysed at the dis private, across genders, in select means of tiding over her difficulties and most of
trict level, there are wide varia districts where the variation was her orders for war material have been given to
tions. For instance, more than 95% noticeable. Only 46% girls in the 17 Rumanian industries. This will be advantageous
of teenagers in the rural parts of 18 age group in Bihar’s Muzaffar to both Rumania and France, to the former on
Ernakulam in Kerala were able to pur knew how to block a profile, account of her depreciated exchange and to the
set an alarm on their smartphone, whereas over 73% boys knew how latter because it gives her an opportunity to
while less than 50% in Cooch Be to do this. Only 57% girls in Rajas practice another economy at the moment she is
har in West Bengal and Gariaband than’s Bhilwara knew how to make endeavouring to find means of balancing her
in Chhattisgarh knew how to do their profile private compared to budget. It is emphasised that FranceRumanian
this. The India average was 66.4% 80% of the boys. elections are in no way affected.
CM A ND-NDE
YK
Delhi www.thehindu.com Wednesday, January 31, 2024
● ●
10
Text&Context 0
NEWS IN NUMBERS
India’s rank in tourist Tankers taking longer Amount seized by ED Rate of global GDP India’s rank in
arrivals to Maldives routes after Red Sea from Jharkhand CM growth forecast by the corruption
after row attacks Hemant Soren IMF perceptions index
5 100 36 3.1 93
From being the top tourist group Yemen’s Iranbacked lakh in cash. This seizure was in percentage. The global out of 100 nations. The report
visiting Maldives, Indians have Houthis have been related to a money growth forecast was raised by was published by
slipped to the fifth position in the targeting vessels in the laundering case linked to an 0.2 percentage points from an Transparency International,
last three weeks, according to official data. Red Sea since November to show their alleged land scam. The ED also seized a earlier estimate on account of greaterthan which ranks 180 countries and territories
Maldives received over 1.74 lakh tourists support for Hamas in its war against Israel. BMW SUV and some “incriminating” expected resilience in the U.S. and large by their perceived levels of public sector
till January 28 this year, of which 13,989 This has prompted major shipping documents after it searched the CM’s emerging markets and developing corruption. PTI
were Indians. PTI companies to take the longer route. house. It has so far arrested 14 people. PTI economies, and fiscal support in China. AFP COMPILED BY THE HINDU DATA TEAM
5606fece-d2fd-4255-885c-3b970201c076
What prompted Iran to target Balochistan, and how did Pakistan respond to the missile strikes? What key factors contributed to the decision for both nations to
de-escalate tensions? How did the arrival of Iran’s Foreign Minister in Islamabad impact economic and security discussions between the two countries?
I
n a series of events, Iran launched Balochistan province, with
missile strikes in Pakistan’s missiles, killing two.
Balochistan province, targeting
alleged strongholds of the Jaish 쑽
alAdl. In response, Pakistan condemned On 17 January, condemning
the attacks, recalling its Ambassador and the attacks as “unprovoked”
expelling the Iranian Ambassador, while and a breach of sovereignty,
also suspending high profile bilateral Pakistan recalled its
visits. A day later, Pakistan retaliated by Ambassador from Tehran and
targeting individuals and terrorist groups expelled the Iranian
in Iran’s SistanBaluchestan province. Ambassador. Pakistan also
However, with a diplomatic approach, suspended all high profile
Pakistan emphasised its respect for Iran, bilateral visits – ongoing and
preventing further escalation. On January planned.
19, at a National Security Council meeting 쑽
aimed at addressing security concerns for
On 18 January, Pakistan
regional peace, both nations decided to
retaliated by targeting
deescalate, reinstating ambassadors, and
“individuals” and “terrorist
by January 28, Iran’s Foreign Minister groups” in Iran’s
arrived in Islamabad to discuss economic SistanBaluchestan province,
and security matters, signaling a shift killing nine. Pakistan’s Foreign
towards dialogue and cooperation. Ministry claimed Iran as a close
friend, with great respect and
What is special about the two Baloch affection for the Iranian
provinces in Iran and Pakistan? people.
First, the demography and geography of Tension relief: Convener, World Minorities Alliance and Former Federal Minister for Population Welfare of Pakistan, Julius Salik showers rose petals to
the provinces. The SistanBaluchestan celebrate after Pakistan and Iran ‘agreed to deescalate’ tensions, in Islamabad on January 20. AFP 쑽
province, one of the largest provinces in On 19 January, the National
Iran, shares the border with Pakistan’s by Abdolmalek Rigi, was present then in organisations do not have a sectarian and brotherly relations of Tehran and Security Council meeting
Balochistan and Afghanistan’s southern the SistanBaluchestan province and has agenda or have links with international Islamabad.” decided to “address each
provinces. The Baloch are the majority in repeatedly been targeting Iran’s security organisations such as al Qaeda. They have It appears that Iran’s missile strikes in other’s security concerns in the
the SistanBaluchestan province, with forces and civilian targets through an ethnic agenda and fight for greater Pakistan had a limited objective as a part larger interest of regional
Sistanis as a minority. The former is terrorist activities, including suicide rights for the Baloch; some of them have a of its targets in Syria and Iraq in response peace and stability” as Iran is a
Sunni, while the latter is Shia. bombings. Iran has been targeting the separatist agenda and want to establish an to an earlier attack in January 2024 in “neighbourly and brotherly
Geographically, Balochistan is the Jundullah leader; Rigi, a Baloch, was independent Balochistan. Kerman. Similarly, Pakistan’s response Muslim country.”
largest of four provinces in Pakistan, with captured and executed in 2010. seems limited in making a domestic and a 쑽
a Baloch majority (which is now being Jundullah was a Sunni group with links Why did Pakistan and Iran bilateral statement. Both have been
threatened by the Pashtun ingress from to al Qaeda and fighting for “Sunni” deescalate immediately after the careful with their statements to ensure it On 22 January, a joint
Afghanistan and Pakistan’s Khyber rights, rather than an ethnic Baloch missile attacks? does not escalate. Besides there have statement issued by the two
Pakhtunkhwa). However, Baloch are a militant group. However, Tehran If the escalation was fast, deescalation been efforts in recent years aimed at a Foreign Ministries agreed on
the return of ambassadors.
minority within Pakistan. considers that the Jundullah had the was faster. Immediately after Iran’s initial rapprochement, which they did not want
Subsequently, on 26 January,
Second, the borders. Pakistan’s support of the Baloch people across the attack, Pakistan recalled its Ambassador to jeopardise.
the Ambassadors returned to
Balochistan province shares a long border SistanBaluchestan and Balochistan and asked the Iranian Ambassador to their offices in Tehran and
with Iran, around 900 km. Unlike the provinces in Iran and Pakistan, leave. Two days later, Pakistan targeted a What challenges lie ahead for Islamabad.
PakistanAfghanistan border, which is respectively. After Rigi’s death, a few few militant targets in the Pakistan and Iran?
disputed by Kabul, the PakistanIran Jundullah members formed the Jaish SistanBaluchestan province in Iran. After Though Tehran was one of the first to 쑽
border is settled. Both countries have alAdl and continued attacking Iran the swift diplomatic and military recognise Pakistan, since the 1979 Iranian On 28 January, Iran’s Foreign
been building a concrete wall along the during the 2010s. escalation, there was a deescalation. revolution, the two countries had a Minister arrived in Islamabad
border to prevent illegal crossings Between 20132023, the Jaish alAdl is China is believed to have pressured troubled relationship. Iran’s revolution in to discuss economic and
between Balochistan (in Pakistan) and accused of having carried out numerous Islamabad and Tehran. But more than any 1979 and Muhammad ZiaulHaq’s regime security issues between the
SistanBaluchestan (in Iran) provinces. attacks, mainly targeting Iran’s security external pressure, the bilateral dynamics in Pakistan during the 1980s brought the two countries.
However, the border remains ineffective officials; the latest one was in December might have led to the deescalation. SunniShia sectarian divide to the fore
in preventing the illicit movement of 2023, where they targeted a police station Given the regional security situation between the two. Though both refer to
people and goods, especially along the in Rask in SistanBaluchestan, killing 11 and the immediate neighbourhood, both the “brotherly Muslim countries”
land and maritime borders. Smuggling is security personnel. countries cannot afford an escalation rhetoric, the sectarian factor was too
common, especially in the south, closer In Iran, Pakistan targeted the hideouts now, which was reflected in their strong to patch the divide.
to the PakistanIran maritime border. belonging to the “Balochistan Liberation statements. Pakistan’s official statement Globally, Iran saw Pakistan under the
Third, two ports of strategic Army” and “Balochistan Liberation talked about “dialogue and cooperation American sphere of influence during the
importance — Gwadar in Pakistan and Front.” Pakistan has been fighting as key tools for addressing common Cold War and post 9/11, especially in
Chabahar in Iran, are situated on the multiple waves of Baloch insurgency since challenges, including terrorism,” while Afghanistan. Pakistan and Iran remained
mouths of the Arabian Sea less than 200 1947. The latest wave of insurgency Iran’s underlined adhering to “the policy in opposite groups; only in recent years
km apart. China and India have invested intensified after the killing of Akbar Bugti, of good neighbourliness and brotherhood has China tried to bring Islamabad and
in these two ports and see them as exit one of the tallest Baloch leaders. Unlike between the two nations” and not Tehran together.
and entry points from/into the Jundullah, the Baloch militant allowing “enemies to strain the amicable And regionally, the struggle for
maritime/mainland Asia. Baloch supremacy, within the West Asia, pitches
provinces are strategically important for Iran and Saudi Arabia on opposite camps,
Iran and Pakistan; however, they remain with Pakistan aligned with the latter. On
in the political periphery and are Afghanistan and the Taliban, both
alienated from the national capitals. For countries have differed on objectives and
the national capitals, the control of the strategies. Until recently, Pakistan viewed
provinces and the two ports is Tehran as closer to New Delhi than
paramount. Islamabad. Pakistan’s nuclear bomb is
seen as a Sunni one, pushing Tehran to
Who are the militants that Iran and have its own for the Shia world.
Pakistan targeted in each other’s Finally, economically, the bilateral
territory? relationship is not strong enough to create
In Pakistan, Iran targeted a relatively a political stake; the fact that Iran is
littleknown Sunni militant group — “Jaish planning to approach international
alAdl,” based in Balochistan. According to arbitration for Pakistan’s reluctance to
Iran’s Foreign Minister, “none of the move ahead with the IranPakistan
nationals of the friendly and brotherly pipeline should underline the harsh
country of Pakistan were targeted by realities for Islamabad and Tehran.
Iranian missiles and drones.” Considered (Prof. D. Suba Chandran heads the NIAS
as a remnant of Jundullah, Iran has been Pakistan Reader, an area studies initiative
fighting it since the late 2000s. Pakistan's Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani greets his Iranian counterpart Hossein AmirAbdollahian at at the National Institute of Advanced
The Jundullah, believed to be founded the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Islamabad. AFP/PAKISTAN FOREIGN OFFICE Studies, Bengaluru)
CM A ND-NDE
YK
THE HINDU
Wednesday, January 31, 2024 11
Delhi
Text&Context
FROM THE ARCHIVES
Know your
English
5606fece-d2fd-4255-885c-3b970201c076
5606fece-d2fd-4255-885c-3b970201c076
K. Subrahmanian
T
his year marks the 75th determined, a man who answered to the well as a shrewd domestic political debate between heterogeneity versus lasting Of the blackest dye’ or ‘of the deepest
anniversary of Mahatma beat of no other drummer, but got calculation. homogeneity in the Hindu faith, pointing dye’ means ‘of the worst kind’.
Gandhi’s assassination ( January everyone else to march to his tune. But the ambivalence speaks volumes: out that while Gandhi’s response is He is a rouge of the deepest dye.
30, 1948) by a Hindu fanatic Someone once called him a cross when many members of Mr. Modi’s BJP inclusive and ethical, Savarkar politicises He is a tyrant of the blackest dye.
who thought the Mahatma was too soft on between a saint and a Tammany Hall call for replacing Gandhiji’s statues across Hinduism as a majoritarian creed. Mr. B. Krishnamoorthy, Dayal Street,
Muslims. The momentous anniversary politician; like the best crossbreeds, he the country with those of his assassin, But Gandhiji’s own understanding of Coimbatore, wants to know whether the use
comes at a time when his legacy, the very managed to distil all the qualities of both Nathuram Godse, the Prime Minister religion, in Heredia’s words, “transcended of “offload” in the following sentence is
idea of Gandhi, stands challenged by the and yet transcend their contradictions. seeks to lay claim to the mantle of his religiosity, Hindu as well as that of any correct: ‘The driver and conductor are
prevailing ideological currents. At a time Explaining a contradiction nowThe fellow Gujarati for his own political other tradition. empowered to offload the passengers found
when the standing of his historic contradiction is mirrored in the attitude benefit. At the same time, there is also a It is essentially a spiritual quest for smoking’. He feels that ‘offload’ should be
detractors, whose descendants now form of the Hindutvainspired Bharatiya Janata tangible dissonance between the official moksha but one rooted in the reality of used with inanimate things.
the ruling dispensation in the country, is Party (BJP) government of Prime Minister governmental embrace of Gandhiji and service to the last and least in the world”. ‘To offload’ means ‘to unload something
at an alltime high, Gandhiji has been Narendra Modi. the unofficial ideological distaste for this Unlike Savarkar, who believed in that is unwanted’.
criticised for weakness, for having bent Mr. Modi was schooled, like other icon, that is privately promoted by conformity, Gandhiji was a synthesiser He offloaded excess baggage.
over too far to accommodate Muslim Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) members and supporters of the present like no other who took care to include Strictly speaking, ‘offload’ must go with
interests, and for his pacifism, which is pracharaks, in an intense dislike of ruling dispensation, some of whose Indians of other faiths in his capacious inanimate things. It is used occasionally with
seen by the jingoistic Hindutva movement Mahatma Gandhi, whose message of members have not hidden their view that and agglomerative understanding of animate beings also. Airlines seem to be fond
as unmanly. tolerance and pluralism was emphatically his assassination was, in their eyes, a religion. of this word. They use it with baggage and
This year marks the 75th anniversary of rejected as minority appeasement by the patriotic act. He took inspiration from not just also passengers.
Mahatma Gandhi’s assassination ( January Sangh Parivar, and whose credo of The vision of the MahatmaIt is a well Advaita Vedanta but also the Jain concept Five passengers were offloaded.
30, 1948) by a Hindu fanatic who thought nonviolence, or ahimsa, was seen as an understood reality that the vision of of ‘Anekantavada’ — the notion that truth The word ‘collect’ was originally used with
the Mahatma was too soft on Muslims. admission of weakness unworthy of Gandhiji, an openly practising Hindu, and reality are perceived differently by inanimate things but now you can say, ‘I will
The momentous anniversary comes at a manly Hindus. Hindutva ideologue V.D. differed greatly from that of Veer Savarkar different people from their own different collect you from your office in the evening’.
time when his legacy, the very idea of Savarkar, whom Mr. Modi has described and M.S. Golwalkar, the principal points of view, and that, therefore, no ‘Pick up’ is another expression that is used
Gandhi, stands challenged by the as one of his heroes, had expressed ideologues of the Hindu Mahasabha and single perception can constitute the these days with human beings. ‘I’ll pick you
prevailing ideological currents. At a time contempt for Gandhiji’s ‘perverse its more militarised alter ego in the complete truth. This led him to once up on my way back and drop you at home’.
when the standing of his historic doctrine of nonviolence and truth’ and postIndependence era, the RSS and declare that ‘I am a Hindu, a Muslim, a ‘Collect’ and ‘pick up’ were used originally
detractors, whose descendants now form claimed it ‘was bound to destroy the eventually, the BJP (formerly the Jana Christian, a Parsi, a Jew’. with inanimate things but now even human
the ruling dispensation in the country, is power of the country’. Sangh). Hinduism and Hindutva, as I have beings are ‘picked up’ or ‘collected’ and
at an alltime high, Gandhiji has been But Prime Minister Modi, for all his Gandhiji embodied the central argued in my book Why I Am a Hindu, ‘dropped’. So don’t feel offended when
criticised for weakness, for having bent Hindutva mindset, his admiration of approach of Advaita Vedanta, which represent two very distinct and people want to ‘collect you’, ‘pick you up’,
over too far to accommodate Muslim Savarkar and his lifetime affiliation to the preached an inclusive universal religion. contrasting ideas, with vitally different ‘drop you’ or ‘offload’ you. No disrespect is
interests, and for his pacifism, which is Sangh Parivar, has embraced Gandhiji, Gandhiji saw Hinduism as a faith that implications for nationalism and the role involved.
seen by the jingoistic Hindutva movement hailing the Mahatma and even using his respected and embraced all other faiths. of the Hindu faith. The principles Mr. N. Uday Bhaskar, Governorpet,
as unmanly. glasses as a symbol of the Swachh Bharat He was profoundly influenced by the Gandhiji stood for and the way in which Vijayawada, wants to know the meaning of
The Mahatma was killed, with the campaign, linking it to a call to revive principles of ahimsa and satya and gave he asserted them are easier to admire ‘Aunt Sally’.
name of Rama on his lips, for being too Gandhiji’s idea of seva through the recent both a profound meaning when he than to follow. But they represented an ‘Aunt Sally’ is a game in which you throw
proMuslim; indeed, he had just come out ‘Swachhata Hi Seva’ campaign. applied them to the nationalist cause. ideal that is betrayed every day by those sticks at the wooden image of a woman. You
of a fast he had conducted to coerce his This may, or may not, represent a He was a synthesiser of cultural belief who distort Hinduism to promote a must hit the nose of the figure or break the
own followers, the Ministers of the new sincere conversion to Gandhism. The systems: his signature bhajan of narrow, exclusionary bigotry. pipe in its mouth. Figuratively, it means ‘a
woman or a thing that is subjected to general
abuse and criticism, often undeserved’.
She is the Aunt Sally of the neighbourhood.
Published in The Hindu on December 18, 1990
THE DAILY QUIZ Please send in your answers to
dailyquiz@thehindu.co.in
businessline.
WEDNESDAY JANUARY 31 2024
I
recent NDA rule (FY14FY23) at 11.6 per n his keynote address on March expanded in scale and scope operating in India and 39 cooperative balance sheets).
5, 2023 at the 17th Foreign necessitating multiple regulations, often banks. * In order that the applicants “ensure
cent. But the latter was marked by the Covid Exchange Dealers’ Association of complex, by multiple regulators, Besides, it has 111 associates equitable and transparent treatment for
setback to economic activity and a cut in India (FEDAI) Annual including the global ones. Hence, the comprising several banking and all its members” [paragraph 7 (ii)], they
corporate tax rates. Tax revenues in the last Conference, M Rajeshwar Rao, need to allow SROs to “complement” nonbanking entities. Thus, IBA covers a (a) should avoid employing
cf5e8461-529b-4ee6-bc17-07e7e5e8906d
cf5e8461-529b-4ee6-bc17-07e7e5e8906d
three years (till FY23) have managed to Deputy Governor, RBI, spoke about the formal regulators was felt. wide spectrum of financial sector superannuated and ‘on deputation’
SelfRegulatory Organisations (SROs) Some of the prominent voluntary entities. However, the banking sector is employees of memberinstitutions, (b)
bounce back, reverting to their historical in some detail(paragraphs 917). associations in the Indian financial paramount in its working and functions. should recruit domain specialists from
growth rate of over 14 per cent. Second, it Subsequently, the Statement on sector are Indian Banks’ Association Although IBA is a “premier service the market and (c) shouldn’t involve
has been a longstanding lament that the Developmental and Regulatory Policies (IBA), Fixed Income Money Market and organization”, hitherto it is not a “public themselves in members’ internal
economy rests on an extremely narrow tax released along with the Monetary Policy Derivatives Association of India, authority”, and the Right to Information conflicts.
base. The data show that there has been Statement on October 6 announced that Association of Mutual Funds in India (RTI) Act doesn’t apply to it. * As required in paragraph 12 (iv), the
RBI would release an omnibus (AMFI), FEDAI, National Federation of IBA has several departments to applicant should be increasingly
considerable improvement on this front. framework for recognising SROs for its Urban Cooperative Banks and Credit monitor various banking activities. It technocentric for building a compliance
The number of entities filing returns has Regulated Entities (REs) for stakeholder Societies Limited and Microfinance also carries out wage negotiations for culture and promote cybersecurity in
more than doubled from 3.3 crore to 7.4 comments(paragraph 4). Institutions Network (MFIN). PSB employees. memberinstitutions.
crore between FY14 and FY23, with the On December 21, RBI issued the draft These associations ensure, to various
omnibus framework. extents, their members’ compliance MEETING THE CONDITIONS UNADDRESSED ISSUES
growth in individual filers (3 crore to 6.9 The Draft Framework (DF) expects with regulatory standards. Some even The voluntary associations applying for * Whether multiple SROs in the banking
crore) accounting for the bulk of this the RBIrecognised SRO to be a “bridge” frame policies and undertake public RBI recognition as SROs and the sector should be allowed?
increase. Given that a majority of between RBI and REs on one hand and awareness programmes. existing SROs to whom RBI recognition * Can an RE be a member in multiple
returnfilers declare zero tax liability, the an arbiter for its members to resolve MFIN is the first association of the will be “specifically extended” SROs in the same industry class?
their grievances and disputes on the NonBanking Finance Companies (paragraph 4) — hereinafter referred to * The extent to which SROs will help
expansion seems to be driven by tax laws other. The DF’s goal is to make the Microfinance Institutions to obtain RBI as ‘applicants’ — have to satisfy several members in their compliance risk
mandating returns for individuals claiming financial sector more professional, recognition as an SRO in 2014. While conditions set by the DF, of which the management needs articulation.
rebates, and the imposition of PAN and tax compliant, innovative and ethical. Securities and Exchange Board of India important ones are: * Will the proposal lead to duplication
collection at source on a host of new set up Registrars Association of India as * To satisfy paragraphs 7 (iv) and 8 of compliance work by banks on one
transactions. Hopefully, tax revenues from DEFINING SROS an SRO for registrars to an issue and (iii), the applicants have to establish hand and SROs on the other?
Selfregulation, which is above share transfer agents, it asked AMFI to robust Research and Data Centres, and * Risk of cartelisation by SROs must
these assessees will improve once their selfinterest, is in consonance with the “act” like an SRO in May 2023. conduct wellresearched ‘banking’ be eschewed.
incomes rise beyond the exempt threshold. ‘public interest’ theory of regulation. A studies in order to support * Whether SROs should liaison with
Third, the contribution of direct taxes to quick review of finance literature reveals INDIAN BANKS’ ASSOCIATION policymaking in the industry and also the government directly or only through
total tax revenues which had dipped to 49.6 that SROs are voluntary associations of IBA was established in 1946 with 22 publish good journals. The banking RBI?
firms belonging to the same industry members. Any bank, corporation, associations in advanced economies * What will be the SROs’ role visàvis
per cent in FY17 has recovered to 54.6 per class which enunciate and implement company or society carrying on business such as Australia, Canada, Germany, UK their crossborder counterparts?
cent in FY23. Direct taxes are more rules and standards relating to the and the US play significant roles in * In addition to disseminating
progressive than indirect taxes which memberfirms’ conduct. SROs are policymaking. “publicly available data” [paragraph 8
impose an equal burden on the rich and the empowered by the government or the
regulator/s to enforce selfregulation on
SRO members create a * Paragraph 8 (v) requires SROs to
impart training to bankers. Therefore,
(iii)], SROs may collect primary data as
well and publish research reports based
poor. its members. more flexible regulatory the applicants should collaborate with thereon.
One aspect of the tax data that needs The SRO members create a more framework than the the country’s top banking training * Direct or indirect RBI inspection of
attention is the sluggish growth in corporate flexible regulatory framework than the institutions. As for “exchange of SROs’ accounts may make them
tax revenues relative to personal income government’s or regulators’ government’s or expertise and experience”, IBA had quasiREs.
tax. In the last nine years, personal tax frameworks, which benefits the industry regulators’ frameworks, started a process long ago for the * Will the RTI Act apply to SROs?
as well as the economy at large. ‘specialist’ bank officers, but it was
collections have grown at an annual rate of Selfregulation can potentially which benefits the industry inconsequential. The writer is a former senior economist, SBI. Views
14.6 per cent while corporate tax revenues “eliminate conflicts of interest, as well as the economy * For “improving compliance culture” expressed are personal
have grown at 8.6 per cent. Companies were
granted significant tax relief just ahead of
Covid, with their base tax rate cut from 30 to
22 per cent, even as the top slab for personal
taxpayers was kept at 30 per cent. Yet, as the
economy has rebounded from Covid,
Interim Budget should spur ‘ready to hire’ skillsets
personal tax collections have expanded by The skilling of youth, in the gig and unorganised sectors, must be taken up on a priority basis to adjust to emerging realities
69 per cent in the last three years
(FY20FY23), while corporate tax layers to find relevant jobs and workers, creating a demandsupply
Dinesh Sood entrepreneurial opportunities won't mismatch in the labour market.
collections have expanded by 48 per cent.
National income statistics and household work beyond a certain point. Furthermore, the skill development
T
he Centre’s recent extension of It is essential to recognise that over 40 ecosystem is yet to address the impact of
savings data suggest setbacks to personal the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan per cent of Indians aged between 15 and Intelligent Automation and Robotics,
income postCovid, while corporate Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) for 24 are not in education, employment, or and all stakeholders must collaborate to
earnings have multiplied. It is perhaps time another five years, which will benefit training, far above the South Asian (30 futureproof the Indian workforce.
the anomaly between personal and 81.35 crore people, will cost the per cent) and global (24 per cent) We cannot overlook the potential of
exchequer an estimated ₹11.8lakh crore. averages. gig economy workers, particularly the
corporate tax rates is corrected by granting Though this is a commendable youth, who account for a significant
relief to individual taxpayers. initiative, we must also prioritise job SKILLS NOT IN SYNC portion of gig workers in India. The
creation for the underprivileged. We Firms in India report high skill shortages, IN SYNC. Skills and jobs/ISTOCKPHOTO Union Budget for 202425 must
must come up with a sustainable solution and they assess only about 46 per cent of prioritise upskilling initiatives for gig
that equips them with the requisite skills graduates as employable. Most students workers.According to a report by
POCKET RAVIKANTH
to earn a decent livelihood.
Therefore, the Interim Budget
lack skills, and the skills they have are not
aligned with the skills needed by
certification systems, which further
divides industry initiatives. A
Taskmo, a gig work platform, the
participation of young people in the gig
202425on February 1, must focus on companies. consolidation of efforts is needed to scale economy of India has witnessed an
imparting employable and sustainable Every year, more than 12 million up the participation of private players eightfold increase between 2019 and
skills to the most vulnerable 67 per cent young people reach the employable age in and industries. The unorganised sector, 2023. The majority of these youth are
of the country's population. India, but we are unable to absorb them. which accounts for about 93 per cent of from TierI and TierII cities, thereby
It's a challenging task, but not Many of them hold higher education the workforce, lacks any structural emphasizing the need for upskilling.
impossible. There is a need to boost degrees, but they lack employable skills. system for acquiring or upgrading skills, Asubstantial allocation to provide
skilling programmes and industry The India Skills Report (ISR) 2023 shows and there is no certification system for a employable skills to school dropouts
partnerships to promote continuous that only 50.3 per cent of those coming large chunk of workers who have should be a priority. This will not only
skilling avenues and employability for out of higher educational institutions are acquired proficiency on their own empower them but also contribute to
school dropouts and unskilled or employable. India needs to provide without any formal education. economic growth.
semiskilled workers. Virtual labs and 'Ready to Hire' young workforce talent. Moreover, there is a shortage of
elabs are useful, but our problem is The Indian skill development system information on skill development, The writer is CoFounder and MD, Orane International, a
extensive. APIbased trusted skill suffers from fragmentation, resulting resulting in nonresponsive skill types Training Partner with National Skill Development
credentials, payment, and discovery from the government's multiple and an inadequate number of skilled Corporation (NSDC)
LETTERS TO EDITOR Send your letters by email to bleditor@thehindu.co.in or by post to ‘Letters to the Editor’, The Hindu Business Line, Kasturi Buildings, 859860, Anna Salai, Chennai 600002.
Manufacturing blues strengthen the manufacturing alliance’s collapse. Rahul Gandhi's INDIA group has damaged it badly Human drain
The Centre’s ProductionLinked ecosystem in the country. wrongly timed Bharat Nyay yatra and it remains to be seen if the Bharat This refers to the news report ‘US
Incentives (PLI) scheme gave a big M Jeyaram and Mamata Banerjee's Ekla Chalo Jodo Nyay Yatra in Bihar will bolster processed a record 1.4 million visa
boost to mobile manufacturing, Sholavandan (Tamil Nadu) initiated the bickerings but before the chances of INDIA. applications in India in 2023’
with smartphone exports having that Congress going alone in just Though at present it seems almost (January 30).
crossed $11 billion in 2022–23, NDA vs I.N.D.I.A concluded five Assembly elections certain that the NDA will win in the The rise in demand for US education
besides benefiting the toy and The Editorial ‘Complete disarray’ precipitated mistrust among allies. next elections; it would be premature by the Indian youth is a grim
defense sectors. (January 30) aptly dissects the Thus blaming the BJP alone is not to write the INDIA group off. The reflection of the higher education
Despite these achievements, the political scenario before Lok Sabha enough. A strong Opposition is the mandir issue has created a huge wave sector in the country.
contribution of the manufacturing elections. essence of democracy but people in favour of the BJP. Inflation and Those who go to US for higher
sector to the GDP has been When INDIA was born with initiative have to be convinced of its vision unemployment remain the biggest studies are likely to settle there
stagnant at 15–17 per cent. efforts of Bihar CM Nitish Kumar to ideology and actions. bugbears of this government. Young resulting in the outflow of human
Measures such as quality control defeat NDA, none ever thought that Vinod Johri voters disillusioned by lack of capital too. The government must
and tariff barriers to boost the the same protagonist will ambush New Delhi employment opportunities could improve the quality of higher
manufacturing sector are steps in INDIA itself to ensure NDA victory. upset the BJP's apple cart. education.
the right direction. Apart from mutual distrust, personal Apropos ‘Complete disarray’, the Anthony Henriques S Ramakrishnasayee
Much needs to be done to ambitions too led to the Opposition desertion of Nitish Kumar from the Mumbai Chennai
Published by Nirmala Lakshman and Printed by S. Ramanujam at HT Media Ltd. Plot No. 8, Udyog Vihar, Greater Noida Distt. Gautam Budh Nagar, U.P. 201306, on behalf of THG PUBLISHING PVT LTD., Chennai600002. Editor: Raghuvir Srinivasan (Editor responsible for selection of news under the PRB Act). ISSN 0971 7528
CM
YK . . . . . . . . NDNDE
think . bl . 7
DELHI
businessline.
WEDNESDAY JANUARY 31 2024
I
The question is whether 2024 t’s not often people describe
will be the year when the India as a haven of peace. But
government will roll out an look at the region around India
integrated data vision. This could and it’s almost starting to look
be envisaged as a system where that way with conflicts
data collection, reporting and TAX REGIME. Must be simple stretching from the Red Sea and Israel
exchange elements move and running all the way to Myanmar.
automatically through machine to minimum corporate tax under The greatest threat this week comes
machinebased processes pillar 2 of the G20/OECD from US fury over the killing of three
between government and proposals. Given the complexity servicemen in Jordan by a militantfired
business taxpayers. of this proposal, it would be missile. The Americans say the attack
The system could potentially prudent to have extensive was carried out by “radical Iranbacked
bring in greater realtime tax stakeholder consultations. militant groups” and are demanding
compliance. Measures like Tax certainty, which includes quick revenge. “A deadly drone attack
SAFTT, as recommended by tax predictability, is a that cost American lives requires a
OECD for electronic exchange of fundamental cornerstone of a swift, precise and meaningful military
reliable accounting data from good tax regime. The Supreme response,” says Bloomberg.
organisations to a national tax Court’s 2023 decision on tax Take a short hop to the Red Sea
authority or external auditors, treaty eligibility based on the where the Indian Navy firefighters and
may be introduced. Most Favoured Nation clause has sailors of the INS Vishakhapatrnam
implications both for Indian helped douse fires on an oil tanker, the
GST COLLECTIONS companies and foreign recipients. Marlin Luanda, after it was struck by a
In 2023, GST collections grew It is hoped that in 2024, the missile fired by Yemen’s Houthi rebels. Gaza bombardment causing massive The Iranians insist all nine people killed now, the Russians have sailed through
over 13 per cent. To accelerate the interim or final Budget proposals A few days earlier, the Vishakhapatnam destruction, it seems aimed at ensuring were Iranians belonging to the terrorist the Suez Canal into the Red Sea,
growth in collection beyond the bring administrative guidance to was on the spot to help another ship, the Palestinians won’t be able to live in Jaish alAdl. The Pakistanis struck back untroubled by fears of Houthi attack.
cf5e8461-529b-4ee6-bc17-07e7e5e8906d
cf5e8461-529b-4ee6-bc17-07e7e5e8906d
nominal GDP growth, better data mitigate the adverse impact for the Genco Picardy, after it was also hit Gaza. The International Court of but the selfdescribed “brotherly For India, it’s crucial the Russians
analysis and technology could be the investor community. by a Houthi missile. Justice’s order to Israel to contain nations” have patched up. Today, their keep sailing through the Red Sea. About
harnessed to plug compliance Conclusion of free trade Head east to Lailenpi in Myanmar, death and damage in Gaza appears to be foreign ministers met and the Iranian 5055 oil tankers carry Russian crude to
gaps. agreements may experience just 5 km from the Indian border. Here, having no impact. Talk about a ceasefire pronounced there was: “No doubt India monthly and other ships bring
A tax policy change is expected sluggish progress in 2024, given Myanmarese rebels bombed a and negotiations to retrieve the militants in PakIran border areas coal and sunflower oil. If they had to
in the field of carbon pricing. The that more than 60 countries, Myanmar army camp using cheap, remaining estimated 130 hostages (were) supported by ‘third countries’.” make the much longer journey round
European Union (EU) has representing half the world’s offtheshelf drones and put the army to continues but nothing has materialised No prizes for guessing the third country the Cape of Good Hope, it would hike
introduced carbon border population, will go to the polls flight. The Myanmar soldiers fled yet. referred to is us! transport costs considerably. Another
adjustment mechanism which this calendar. across the border into India. A plane If all this isn’t enough, Iran last week ship carrying Russian crude oil to India
will transition to imposition of sent to repatriate one group of soldiers fired a missile 280 km inside Pakistan, HOUTHI REBELS had a narrow escape in the Gulf of Aden
import levies on specified goods WHAT IS EXPECTED? crashlanded at Mizoram’s Lengpui killing nine people. The attack In the Red Sea too, the Iranians are the over the weekend when a missile landed
imported into the EU from GST and corporate income tax Airport. Myanmar’s rebels are using surprised the Pakistanis because the key suspects, accused of backing the closeby.
countries with less stringent rates are unlikely to see any easilyavailable weapons like drones two countries’ foreign ministers had Houthi rebels. There’s said to be a tacit Where do all these conflicts on land
climate policies. Other countries change in 2024. Individual that can be bought on Amazon and met earlier in the day and the Pakistan Iranianbrokered understanding that and sea leave India? We’re a large
have or are expected to adopt taxpayers may be encouraged to scoring big victories against the and Iranian navies had just concluded the Houthis won’t attack Russian and country and are more focused on the
similar measures. move towards the new country’s wellequipped army who are joint naval exercises a few hours earlier. Saudi ships and cargoes. It’s reckoned coming general elections than nearby
Therefore, the government will exemptionfree tax regime over reportedly reluctant to fight their own the Houthis bungled by striking the wars. But a strike against the Iranians,
need to pursue appropriate policy the historical exemptionbased countrymen. Marlin Luanda which was carrying for example, could be like a match in a
responses, even as Indian tax regime. Individual taxpayers Worst of all is, of course, the Gaza Worst of all is, of Russian naphtha. Possibly that powder keg. That would be enough to
industry must adopt measures to would certainly hope for some war where Israel has already killed course, the Gaza war happened because of the ship’s opaque inflame the Middle East and send the
not just ensure expeditious relief in the interim Budget more than 26,000 Palestinians, ownership: it sails under the Marshall price of oil shooting through the roof —
compliance but also benefit proposals. according to local officials. The Israelis where Israel has already Islands flagofconvenience, its owner if nothing else. And small wars can
through opportunity for trade The aspiration of the growing say they’re aiming for “total victory” killed more than 26,000 is Londonbased Oceonix Services and swiftly metamorphose into much
diversion. taxpayer community, reflected by over Hamas after the savage October 7 the cargo belonged to global trading larger, blazing hot ones. Let’s cross our
To secure long term funding the 68 million tax returns in 2023, attack that left some 1,400 dead. But Palestinians, according to giant Trafigura. The ship had a crew of fingers that things don’t deteriorate
for green projects, the RBI has is best articulated by the Prime not only is the Israelis’ devastating local officials. 22 Indians and one Bangladeshi. Till further but it may prove a vain hope.
thus far raised ₹210 billion via Minister’s statement that
sovereign green bonds. To “….people today feel that their
supplement this with private money is being used for
issuance of green bonds, nationbuilding…the trust in Short take
appropriate incentives can be developmental works among tax
provided.
This could be done by way of
paying people has increased”. A
welcome aspiration for the
Migration to drive UK
interest, capital gains exemption
for the borrower and accelerated
incoming government in 2024
would be to further the population growth
tax depreciation on assets implementation environment in
acquired with the proceeds of which taxpayers can easily Lucy White
green bonds. comply with the tax process with Irina Anghel
The globalisation of our tax minimal disputes and avoid
T
policy is likely to continue, albeit lengthy dispute resolution he UK estimated its population
sluggishly. In 2024, the processes. will balloon by 9.9 per cent in the
government could provide a next 15 years, a trend that will
roadmap for implementing the The writer is President, Tax, Deloitte India both help the economy and exacerbate a
rift within Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s
ruling Conservative Party.
The Office for National Statistics
thehindu businessline.
projected the number of people in the
UK will grow by 6.6 million between the
middle of 2021 and 2036, almost all of
TWENTY YEARS AGO TODAY. which will come from immigration. Net
migration is likely to average 315,000 a
January 31, 2004 year from the middle of 2028.
While this would result in net
SEBI likely to relax public issue norms for PSUs migration more than halving from last
In order to facilitate the disinvestment of government holding in public sector year’s record, overall population growth
units, SEBI is prepared to heed to a government request and relax the norms is stronger than the ONS estimated a
of public issues. These include reducing the lot size from 100 to 10, declaring year ago. That’s likely to boost the
the price band a day before the opening of the offers and earmarking some capacity of the economy to grow over the
equity for allotment to shareholders of group companies. coming years, which will help the Bank of
England in its efforts to head off
IFCI merger with PNB gets board approval inflation and could bring in more
Yet another development financial institution (DFI) is set to fade away from revenue for the Treasury. Yet it cuts
the financial horizon with approval being granted for Punjab National Bank’s against Sunak’s promise to rein in
acquisition of the country’s oldest termlending institution, IFCI. PNB was migration.
chosen to takeover the DFI in view of the synergies shared between the two. The ONS estimates that the number
of people in the UK will hit 70 million by
Nitish promises smoother train rides mid2026, heightening concerns among
The interim Budget presented by the Union Railways Minister, Mr Nitish Kumar, Conservatives about migration which
proposes to complete all pending railway projects in the next five years and ministers say is straining public services,
has outlined several measures to augment passenger services. Passengers will from schools to hospitals.
soon be able to book tickets through mobile phones and the concept of Last year, net migration to the UK hit
eticketing, borrowed from lowcost airlines, is to be adopted by the Railways. a record 745,000. BLOOMBERG
CM
YK ... . . . . . . NDNDE
>
OPINION 9
STAY INFORMED THROUGH THE DAY @ WWW.BUSINESS-STANDARD.COM
T
he Department of Economic Affairs on Monday came up with a review ILLUSTRATION: BINAY SINHA agriculture and the rural economy. In an election year,
of India’s economic performance over the past decade. Although it is Budget allocations are expected to be pro-farmer and
pro-poor. The Finance Minister recently mentioned
not the Economic Survey, which will be released before the full Budget
that youth, women, farmers and the poor would be
after the Lok Sabha election, the review highlights the reforms imple- the focus of government policies. These four groups
mented by the Narendra Modi government. It notes the economy is expected to are higher in rural areas and this could be an indication
grow 7.3 per cent this financial year and many believe growth will be around 7 of the thrust of the interim Budget.
per cent even next financial year. Growth in the economy has indeed exceeded The government may stick to the fiscal deficit target
expectations, and the fact that India is growing at this rate despite relatively of 5.9 per cent for FY24, with the aim of reducing it to
unfavourable global conditions is commendable. The government implemented 4.5 per cent by FY26. The increase in capital expendi-
several reforms over the past decade and recovery from the pandemic has been ture is expected to continue in future budgets, which
stronger than expected. However, there are challenges that could affect potential would also benefit rural areas. The last Budget made
some announcements such as digital public infras-
growth over the medium to long run.
tructure for agriculture, an agricultural accelerated
Among the most notable reforms, the government has implemented the
fund to encourage agri-startups, and the establishment
Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016. Along with the merger of public-sector of a global hub for millets (Shree Anna). These
banks and their recapitalisation, it helped address the twin balance-sheet problem. announcements would require increased allocations.
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As a result, the Indian banking sector is currently in its most favourable position he performance of agriculture and the rural exports. While there may be a need to impose export Notably, higher funds were allocated for the Jal Jeevan
in over a decade. Healthy corporate and bank balance sheets have not only economy is important as around 70 per cent of bans and increase tariffs on occasion, it’s crucial to Mission, farmer producer organisations (FPOs), and
reduced macroeconomic risks but will also support private investment. Another the population and workforce reside in rural consider that such measures could potentially reduce food processing, and this positive trend should be con-
noteworthy reform implemented in the past decade is goods and services tax areas. Increasing their purchasing power is crucial for farmers’ incomes. tinued. The last Budget also saw an increase in agri-
(GST). After years of relative underperformance, the tax system is showing signs creating demand in the entire economy. In this context, Indian farmers face many problems. The economic cultural credit to ~20 trillion, with focus on animal
of stabilisation and increased revenue. The government should now aim to ratio- let’s examine the present state of agriculture, rural survey 2022-23 called for a reorientation in agriculture husbandry, dairy and fisheries. Recent estimates show
economy, and expectations from the interim Budget to deal with challenges such as climate change, rising disbursal of farm loans exceeded 90 per cent of the
nalise rates and slabs to further improve its performance. The government took
for 2024-25. input costs, fragmented land holdings, sub-optimal Budget estimate in the first nine months of the current
several other initiatives, such as the Real Estate (Regulation and Development) Indian agriculture has done well, with an average farm mechanisation, low productivity, and disguised fiscal. The interim Budget may raise agricultural credit
Act, decriminalising minor economic offences, liberalising foreign direct invest- annual growth rate of 4.4 per cent in the past six years unemployment. At present, subsidies exceed public by 10 to 15 per cent.
ment in various sectors, and adopting flexible inflation targeting. (2017-18 to 2022-23) including Covid-19 years. However, investments in agriculture. India spends only 0.4 per The last Budget announced schemes aimed at pro-
Some of these reforms will support growth over the medium to long run. the first advance estimates of gross domestic product cent of agri gross value-added on research and devel- moting a circular economy and facilitating 10 million
However, there are at least two important issues that need immediate policy (GDP) for FY24 indicate a dismal seven-year low growth opment, while other countries spend 1 to 2 per cent of farmers to adopt natural farming. This focus may con-
attention. The government opted for increased capital expenditure to support of just 1.8 per cent. This low growth in agriculture was agriculture GDP. There is a need to tackle the impact tinue in the next Budget. Additionally, the Budget
growth after the pandemic, which slowed fiscal consolidation. As a result, accord- largely due to the poor monsoon (El Nino effect) in of climate change. One study shows that climate shocks should also emphasise adaptation and mitigation mea-
ing to estimates, India’s public debt is expected to increase this year, partly 2023. Production of major kharif crops such as droughts, floods, heat waves sures to reduce carbon emissions. Similarly, the PM
and even allied activities like livestock, and cold waves have slowed down Krishi Sinchayee Yojana and the crop insurance
because of lower nominal growth. Public debt worth well over 80 per cent of
fishing, and aquaculture could witness India’s agriculture productivity scheme (PM Fasal Bima Yojana) need to be further
gross domestic product is always a source of macroeconomic vulnerability for a a decline in FY24. Rabi sowing is also growth by 25 per cent, and the slow- strengthened.
country like India. Higher debt and interest payments are also affecting gov- muted this year. Although overall infla- down has been more pronounced in One expects increased allocations towards farmers
ernment spending. As an analysis by this newspaper showed, with an increase tion in December 2023 was 5.7 per cent, the poorer and agrarian states. and rural development programmes to stimulate
in interest payments, expenditure on health and education as a proportion of the consumer food price index record- As for rural demand, the RBI demand in rural areas. With the extension of the PM-
total expenditure has declined in recent years. The government thus needs to ed an inflation rate of 10 per cent. analysis shows a mixed perfor- Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana (PMGKAY) for the next five
reduce the fiscal deficit at a faster rate to bring down public debt. Global uncertainty on food prices and mance. Automobile sales, although years, there could be a rise in the food subsidy bill,
The other big policy challenge is generating quality employment. The review supply chains due to wars in few coun- moderating sequentially, registered while the fertiliser subsidy may not see a significant
notes the unemployment rate, according to the annual Periodic Labour Force tries may continue, although the Food an expansion of 14.1 per cent year- increase. The Budget is likely to allocate more funds
Surveys, declined from 6 per cent in 2017-18 to 3.2 per cent in 2022-23. Policymakers, and Agriculture Organization food S MAHENDRA DEV on-year (y-o-y) in December, while for the PM-Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-Kisan) scheme,
price index declined from 143.7 in 2022 two- and three-wheeler sales record- MGNREGA, and affordable housing (PM-Awas Yojana).
however, should read these numbers carefully and not underestimate the nature
to 124.0 in 2023. ed double-digit y-o-y growth. On the An increase in rural wages is also crucial for creating
of the challenge. It is worth noting that over 57 per cent of workers reported to be A recent study by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) other hand, tractor sales recorded a two-year low in demand and fostering private investment in rural
self-employed and over 18 per cent were helpers in their household enterprises. explores the dynamics of the agriculture supply chain December, and contracted by 19.8 per cent (y-o-y). areas. Malnutrition among children in rural areas is
Meanwhile, about 22 per cent reported to be engaged in casual labour. The employ- by estimating the farmers’ share in consumer prices Other data shows that the sales of fast-moving con- high and needs attention.
ment mix underscores that the Indian economy is unable to create quality jobs through a pan-India survey of farmers, traders and sumer goods in value terms faltered and the rural To conclude, there is a need to reduce stress in agri-
at the scale required. This factor alone has the potential to significantly undermine retailers. The survey finds that the average share of demand continued to lag in the October-December culture and increase rural demand to ensure the sus-
India’s long-term economic growth prospects. farmers in output value varies between 33 and 70 quarter. Additionally, rural real wage growth has been tainability of growth and the creation of productive
per cent across various crops. As one expects, per- either low or negative in the last one decade. The employment. This will benefit farmers, the poor, youth,
ishables have a much lower share. The survey find- demand for jobs under MGNREGA is still high this and women. In an election year, the Budget has to
Gender preference ings suggest that further development of agricultural year, though showing a decline compared to the pre-
markets, warehouses, pre-processing facilities, ripen- vious year. Whether one calls it a K-shaped or V-
strike a balance between pro-poor redistributive poli-
cies while ensuring fiscal deficit targets. Raising rev-
ing units and cold storage is critical for efficient sup- shaped recovery, the weak rural demand is a concern enue, reducing tax concessions, and curtailing expen-
Girl child continues to face discrimination ply chain management. for fast-moving consumer goods, other durables and ditures on unproductive activities are required to
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ocio-economic advancement, better educational facilities for women, and India holds significant potential for increasing agri- discretionary products, although we see few green achieve this objective.
extensive government programmes have improved health outcomes for cultural exports. Special efforts are required to diversify shoots now. Around 51 per cent of micro, small and
girls and narrowed the gender gap in child health inputs and outcomes. the agri-export basket and explore new destinations, medium enterprises are in rural areas and they have The writer is distinguished professor, ICFAI, Hyderabad, and
However, India still has to go a long way. A new research paper — published as well as to increase high-value added agricultural to be strengthened. former director, IGIDR, Mumbai
I
n the funding winter season, a book The writer-entrepreneur starts by If “Looking for a CTO….’’ offers a sense thousands of them Author: Alok Kejriwal mobile phones entrepreneur. But, the success story in
by a successful startup founder is a telling the reader that after two of experiment, that’s a running theme have collapsed over that was this book stays with the reader. It’s
Publisher: Penguin
welcome kit for the would-be successful exits (read “plenty of cash”), through the book. Take for instance Mr the years. Random House successful in about the Parking Frenzy game — that’s
entrepreneur. Pages of wisdom for those he could have built just about anything Kejriwal’s description of the MDP model, There have China and perhaps the genesis of the title. “At
interested in the life and times of new- for the next venture. That’s when he which he defines as the minimum been numerous Pages: 176 presented in a around 1 am (IST) on 12 June 2012,
age companies would not go amiss chose to build a gaming company to dhandha product. MDP seems to be a books on startups, Price: ~299 well-crafted Parking Frenzy became the number one
either. The author’s LinkedIn account entertain consumers worldwide. The sure-shot model to check if a startup idea big and small, PowerPoint as a game and app in the US iTunes store…’’.
describes him as a hands-on, serial ensuing pages touch upon the many holds promise or not. In a back and forth written by plan, you could That was a first for a mobile game from
entrepreneur whose focused approach aspects of the journey around his fourth style, the writer talks about his MDP founders and co-founders themselves, quickly raise a few million dollars from India, a record not broken yet. Soon
is to fire up a great idea and partner with company — Games2win — experiment a decade ago on whether to both globally and in India. That makes it investors just to try out your ideas.’’ after began the “Great Indian Internet
the best people to make it happen. His incorporated in 2006. start manufacturing jeans or not. He did tougher for any writer of this genre to He goes on to say that the mimic- Gold Rush”, Mr Kejriwal notes, as
previous startup, Mobile2win, was Apart from the hard work, not after the MDP test. He uses the same sustain the reader’s interest. This one is China experiment failed when he tried marquee investors set up local offices in
acquired by The Walt Disney Company challenges and all the rest of the formula to check if the gaming venture no exception, but the author keeps it the MMORPG (massive multiplayer India. The rest, as they say, is history.
and Norwest Venture Partners in China attributes connected with the spirit of would be worthwhile or not. All this may simple in style and form with a box on online role playing game) genre. He For this writer, however, the vision of
and India, respectively, the short profile entrepreneurship, the book attempts to seem pretty much commonplace and learnings at the end of every chapter. recounts how he tried to Indianise the becoming the Mattel of the digital world
description says. recount anecdotes that lend warmth to logical but entrepreneurs need to remind The learning is like a to-do synopsis for genre by opting for a car driving and remains the guiding principle.
18 NEW DELHI
WEDNESDAY
JANUARY 31, 2024
Opinion
{ OUR TAKE }
E STA B L I S H E D I N 1 9 24
New deal in statecraft,
Expressway boost to India-US ties
to prosperity iCET’s transformative
potential was never in
negotiated. Longstanding areas of panies in niche defence-related tech-
cooperation that predated iCET but nologies — to be co-developed and
lacked strategic focus were placed manufactured in India. There is an
CEA’s review of the Indian economy presents doubt. On the first under the spotlight. NSCS and the ongoing formal process to demask
NSC were able to identify gaps, read- the export controls labyrinth in the
an optimistic roadmap to a $7 trillion economy. anniversary of its just priorities, and gently push line US. Equally, there is a serious effort
But bumps on route will have to be negotiated launch, both nations ministries in both countries to work to streamline regulations in India to
toward clearer outcomes. Prime attract inward investments and
need to institutionalise Minister Narendra Modi’s State visit cement manufacturing commit-
T
omorrow’s being an interim budget, there to Washington, DC, in June 2023 ments in strategic technologies.
its working
will be no customary Economic Survey today. served as a forcing function for iCET There are many more examples of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s State visit to Washington, DC, in June
E
xactly a year ago, to this torchbearers both within and outside iCET-led outcomes. In sum, there is 2023 served as a forcing function for iCET torchbearers both within and
The Economic Survey, more than anything day, the India-United of government. little doubt that the NSC- outside of government REUTERS
else, presents the government’s narrative on States (US) initiative on The strategy worked. A NSCS-led structure is deliv-
the economy. That, however, has not prevented the Critical and Emerging range of announcements ering. There will likely be a ing. Such a structure also deperson- but rather one of negotiations —
Technology (iCET) was peppered the long and high-level iCET meeting in alises the iCET that is currently, to an sometimes much is lost in transla-
government from laying down its narrative on the formally unveiled. In an hard-negotiated joint state- New Delhi sometime soon. extent, dependent on individuals tion. Trust takes time to develop.
economy ahead of its last Budget before the general oversized yet packed room in the US ment at the end of the visit. As senior officials take stock who have more than ably led this Actors on both sides, in time, will do
elections. The chief economic advisor (CEA)’s office, Chambers of Commerce, national The American semiconduc- Rudra and think through the future process. Yet, these individuals will better to co-learn and co-produce the
security advisors Ajit Doval and Jake tor company Micron Chaudhuri of the iCET, I highlight two move on. For the long-term sustaina- shared syntax required to deepen
on Monday, released a document called “Indian Sullivan consulted leading represent- pledged investments in sets of observations. bility of the iCET, both governments cooperation. As the groundwork con-
Economy: A Review”, which does precisely that even atives from industry and government India. It has subsequently First, whilst the NSC- could consider the question of insti- tinues to be laid, even if the quantum
though the CEA has emphasised that it is not to be along with other stakeholders. Both broken ground in Gujarat. NSCS structure has done tutionalisation by the time the next of deal announcements reduces over
countries set on a path to architect a General Electric Aerospace and Hin- more than many might have iCET meeting takes place. a given period of time, the industry
confused with the Economic Survey (which will new framework for cooperation. Led dustan Aeronautics Limited expected to incubate the iCET and Second, it is worth keeping in needs to keep an eye on the future.
come out in July). by the National Security Council Sec- announced the coproduction of jet coordinate and shape outcomes, it is mind that strategic technology coop- After all, it is both the primary mover
What does this document tell us about the Indian retariat (NSCS) in India and the engines in India. The Congressional time to think more carefully about eration takes time to mature. The of the iCET and potentially its great-
National Security Council (NSC) in waivers required in the US to imple- the institutional future of the initia- iCET began with big bang announce- est beneficiary.
economy during the 10 years of the Narendra Modi the US, the iCET served as a unique ment this deal have been attained. tive. As many of its different verticals ments, but these are not replicable The iCET has the potential to
government? It argues that the period has been experiment in statecraft. The NSCS The US National Science Foundation have taken root and are being consid- every quarter or even every year. As transform the US-India relationship
marked by important reforms, some incremental, had not done anything like this until has signed several agreements with ered at different levels in ministries, one senior official put it to me, “The many times over. Moreover, it prom-
now. its Indian counterparts to forge and industry, and academy, it might be iCET is as much about constantly ises manufacturing, jobs, and access
others game-changing, which have brought the The enthusiasm in the room was foster collaborations. India became worth creating an iCET council that preparing the groundwork for out- to critical technologies to India’s bur-
Indian economy to the cusp of long-term sustained unmistakable. Industry captains the 27th country to join the Artemis includes key ministries of both coun- comes as it is about outcomes them- geoning strategic industrial ecology,
growth in the ballpark of 7%. Barring geopolitical pledged their support to deepen ties Accords, a set of principles that guide tries that have been invested in this selves.” This is about the long haul. made up of both established players
across a range of strategic technolo- civilian space exploration. effort. The NSC and the NSCS should Deregulation in India is a work in and an ever-increasing range of
disruptions, the report says that the Indian economy gies from defence and Artificial Intel- Indus X, a new defence innovation be a part of this council. This process progress, as is the case with unbun- smaller ones. What is immediately
may reach the $7 trillion GDP mark by 2030 and is ligence to semiconductors and space. ecosystem, was created. It is led by will give greater agency to ministries, dling different categories of export required is patience and an active
well placed to realise the government’s objective of The two governments produced a agencies associated with India’s min- institutionalising the iCET impera- control regimes in the US. effort to institutionalise iCET 2.0.
“fact sheet” on iCET— the first set of istry of defence and the US depart- tives into a formal structure. Similarly, if one or two sets of
India becoming a developed economy when it formal documents outlining priority ment of defense. A few large deals Moreover, the council could negotiations on the coproduction of Rudra Chaudhuri is
completes 100 years of Independence in 2047. areas. An iCET ecosystem grew over are soon expected to materialise become the collective support base defence-related products fall apart, it director, Carnegie India.
The document also argues, in a subtle way, that even the next four months. Deals were between Indian and American com- for the iCET initiatives and dealmak- is not necessarily a failure of the iCET The views expressed are personal
though GDP growth rates have been higher in the
pre-Modi period, the current performance is
qualitatively better as it comes in the backdrop of a
slowdown in global growth. At the same time, the
document also argues that most international
Game on: The Biden { DHANANJAYA Y CHANDRACHUD } CHIEF JUSTICE OF INDIA
P
agencies are underestimating India’s growth
potential. Much of this is fair.
To be sure, the document is not just a set of
camp’s comeback plan In our work as judges, we realise the
importance of compassion,
assertions. It also celebrates what can be described onald Trump dominates the Ameri- nomic sentiment will change in three
as the government’s basic economic philosophy.
This is best understood as supply-side interventions
to boost material and human infrastructure,
D can political theatre at the moment. respects. First, with the economy slowly get-
His indictments and court cases have ting out of the fears of recession, interest rates
helped consolidate his base. His dipping, growth momentum sustained and
resounding success in the initial Republican robust employment figures, there is a sense
primaries has made it clear that he will be the that inflation will continue to dip. And as gro-
universality, tolerance and equality
which Gandhiji preached in all his
acts, deeds and words
A
an expansion of the welfare net to cushion the party’s nominee for the presidential elections cery and rent costs dip, Biden’s team hopes On the death anniversary of Mahatma Gandhi
livelihoods and living standards of the poor and a this November. Negotiations in the United that the current anger against the administra-
commitment towards inflation control that extends States (US) Congress, where funding for tion will subside. Second, Biden will continue
Ukraine, Israel and border security remains to tout his major legislative accomplishments,
beyond the realm of monetary policy interventions. tied together in a package, are held hostage manufacturing push, and real financial invest-
Does all this mean that there are no problems with largely due to Trump’s signal to the party’s ments across domains, from infrastructure to
the Indian economy? Uneven recovery is a major
How Bihar has fared
Congressional leadership to make life difficult climate to modern tech. The Democrats rec-
for Joe Biden. And polls show either a really ognise that there is a lag till the impact of
problem for the economy and some of the assertions close race or a Trump edge in the national these measures is felt on the ground but are
in the document such as private consumption being elections when matched with Biden. hoping that this will assume tangible forms by
robust need to be taken with a pinch of salt.
It remains to be seen whether the interim Budget
goes with this reality or the narrative that all is fine
On the other side, Biden is struggling with the end of the year. And the third is Biden’s
two wars. The Israeli offensive has fractured focus on labour and unions. As the first presi-
his political coalition, with people of colour dent to stand in a picket line to express soli-
and minorities alienated from the administra- darity with striking workers against the auto
under Nitish Kumar
with the Indian economy. tion for what they see as American complicity industry, and with the endorsements of top itish Kumar has been the chief minis- share remains merely 0.5% of India. The only
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dent fund and life insurance policies. ment has been growing. In 2007-08, it
Second, the complex mess over the was at 2.1% of gross domestic product
taxation of income earned from capital (GDP). In 2014-15, it stood at 2.07%. It
gains made through different forms of has risen over the last few years and was
investment needs to be set right. Cur- at 2.9% in 2022-23. It is expected to
rently, this is how things stand. Capital touch 2.98% in 2023-24, as per the bud-
gains made from the purchase and sale get presented in February 2023. This is
of debt mutual funds are taxable at the largely due to higher marginal tax rates
marginal rate of tax; the holding period in recent years, thanks to higher sur-
VIVEK KAUL doesn’t matter. Listed stocks or equity charges, than was the case in the past.
is the author of ‘Bad Money’. mutual funds, when sold within a year Now, in comparison, the corporate
of buying, attract a 15% tax on capital income tax collected was at 3.94% of
gains. If sold after a year, a 10% tax needs GDP in 2007-08, at 3.44% in 2014-15
to be paid, with gains of up to ₹100,000 and 3.07% in 2022-23. It is expected to
T
he interim budget will be pre- within three years of purchase, a tax income tax collected has been largely
sented on 1 February. This will be needs to be paid at the marginal rate. because of a cut in the corporate tax rate
followed by the budget in July Beyond that, gold gains are taxable at carried out in September 2019. The fall
I
t is a universally accepted fact that interim Amid this braggadocio, two critical facts are ments are made. five years, are tax-free. provisions went up by just 39%, ensur-
budgets in an election year are likely to be missed. One, estimated nominal GDP growth Over the years, life insurance compa- Now, let’s talk about the sale of resi- ing that profits-after-tax went up 244%.
nies have primed Indians to buy life dential real estate. Currently, any capi- If we look at aggregate data of more
crafted with an eye to the coming political for 2023-24 has come in lower than what was insurance in order to save tax. But tal gains made on selling residential real than 5,000 listed companies, we get a
maelstrom. The budget speech typically projected, which will have its own repercus- almost all such policies sold are invest- estate within two years of purchase is similar trend. From 2018-19 to 2022-23,
becomes an occasion for grandstanding, sions. Also, the review fails to meaningfully ment-oriented insurance policies, and taxed at the marginal rate. Any sale the profits-before-tax of these compa-
with much energy expended on exaggerat- address mounting criticism over GDP over- not term insurance. This results in most beyond two years is taxed at 20% with nies went up 128%, the corporation tax
ing achievements of the government while estimation or the lingering problems with esti- Indian households that can afford to pay benefits of indexation—which basically paid went up 35% and net profits went
insurance premiums having very little allows the seller to take inflation into up 186%.
making generous promises of future giveaways mating the GDP deflator, which has led to dis- life insurance to fall back on in the event account for the price at which an asset Given these reasons, the current
and new opportunities. This year, India’s crepancies of output estimation between the of an emergency. was bought while calculating the capital income tax system favours the country’s
finance ministry has introduced a new practice expenditure and production methods. To correct this, a separate deduction gains made. In comparison with all this, non-salaried rich and corporates,
by releasing a document called The Indian It is particularly worrisome that the review of up to ₹10,000-20,000 every year salary income is taxed at the marginal though it needs to be fair before any-
Economy: A Review, thereby inviting compari- overlooks the elephant in the room: current against the premium paid for a term rate and so is interest earned from fixed thing else. Hopefully, this is an anomaly
insurance policy needs to be offered. deposits. This essentially shows that the that will be set right over the next five
sons with the annual Economic Survey that usu- unemployment. It uses the government’s This should be over and above the Indian personal income tax system years, primarily by ensuring that differ-
ally precedes the Union budget by a day or two recently released Periodic Labour Force deduction of up to ₹150,000 that is cur- favours the non-salaried rich and the ent kinds of incomes are taxed at the
if general elections are not due. In keeping with Survey data to celebrate growing job opportu- rently available under Section 80C of fact that one needs to be a chartered same marginal rates instead of today’s
an interim budget’s hyperbolic air, the review nities and declining joblessness. However, it the Income Tax Act for investments accountant to understand it. multiplicity of rates. Also, corporations
released on Monday has turned out to be a ignores data from other independent sources, made in tax-saving mutual funds, tax- Third, over the years, the personal need to be made to pay their fair share
saving fixed deposits, the public provi- income tax collected by the govern- of income tax.
paean to the current government’s economic such as the 9%-plus unemployment estimate
management, while underplaying some of the for November 2023 by the projection of
economy’s most chronic problems. The review Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy. In
could hence be viewed as another pre-election fact, Bibek Debroy, chairman of the Economic
tool, marshalled with embellishments that Advisory Council to the Prime Minister,
appeal to the ruling party’s middle-class sup- admitted in an interview to Mint that slow job
port base, providing harmony to the interim creation in the economy is a matter of concern. www.livemint.com
New Delhi, Mumbai, Bangalore, Kolkata, Chennai, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Chandigarh*, Pune* Friday, January 31, 2014 Vol.8 No.27 `4.00 in DelhiNCR/`5.00 outside DelhiNCR 24
32 PAGES
+ 4 MARKETS PAGES
budget’s poll trumpet and possibly also ideas for The review also has other odd stuff in store: it
MINT METRIC
WSJ:Fed sticks to script
on paring bond buys >18
CORPORATE: Aditya Birla Nuvo
sells BPO Minacs >8
the party’s manifesto. cites a 2023 paper to use Angus Maddison’s CONTENT PARTNER
POLITICS: Andhra Pradesh assembly
rejects Telangana Bill >4
NATION: DIPP revises proposal to
allow 100% FDI in railways >6
Such a review is an otherwise welcome idea. conclusion that India contributed a 22.6% SENSEX 20,498.25 æ 149.05
DEBT SURGE
NIFTY 6,073.70 æ 46.55 DOLLAR `62.58 Æ `0.17 EURO `85.09 æ `0.13
AFP
GOLD `30,000 Æ `70
Aadhaarlinked
OIL $108.20 Æ $0.64
In these fraught times of geopolitical conflict share of the world’s GDP in 1700, rather than framework to
subsidy on hold
B Y P RASHANT K . N ANDA,
K IRTHI V . R AO &
G AURAV J AIN
·························
NEW DELHI
another step
T he country has
moved a step closer
to creating its 29th state.
The onward march
and economic uncertainty, a calm and staid citing the British economist’s work directly.
day increased the number Andhra Pradesh
of subsidized cooking gas cylin- legislative assembly
ders per household to 12 from rejecting the Andhra
nine per year and suspended Pradesh Reorganization
the transfer of the subsidy to Bill, 2013, for granting
Plan to offer incentives increase to 14% of total loans by bank accounts linked to Aad- statehood to the
for early identification March 2015. haar unique identity numbers Telangana region. The
look at the economy would have gone a long Having used that paper to extract one data-
timely revamp of “the pain of (loan) restructuring three months away. Parliament that takes the
has to be borne fairly (between Households will get two addi- final call.
unviable accounts the lender and the borrower)”. tional subsidized cylinders in That is the irony of the
Rajan said banks needed to the year ending March and one process here. The
B Y D INESH U NNIKRISHNAN closely monitor these loans, and subsidized cylinder every creation of new states is
dinesh.n@livemint.com act—some assets could be re- month starting in April. considered part and
························· covered by rolling over debt, The move comes after sus- parcel of strengthening
MUMBAI others by infusing new blood in tained pressure from the ruling the federal character of
T he Reserve Bank of India the management, and still oth- United Progressive Alliance the country. Yet, in this
way in assuaging anxieties. The document, point, it makes no reference to its disquiet over Has been given a security booster.
(RBI) on Thursday laid ers by simply pumping in more (UPA). Congress party vice- case, a new state is being
out a road map to deal money. president Rahul Gandhi de- created by trampling over
with a surge in bad loans in the On 17 December, RBI issued a manded that the cap be raised the wishes of a state
`82 trillion banking system. discussion paper titled Early to 12 at the All-India Congress assembly that has
The framework outlines a cor- Recognition of Financial Dis- Committee meeting on 17 Janu- rejected the draft law.
rective action plan that will offer tress, Prompt Steps for Resolu- ary. Raising the limit would in- The Union’s diktat is
incentives for early identifica- tion and Fair Recovery for Lend- crease the subsidy by `5,000 likely to prevail.
tion of stressed assets by banks, ers: Framework for Revitalising crore per year. The situation could
timely revamp of accounts con- Distressed Assets in the Economy. Transfer of the cooking gas have been handled far
unfortunately, strays from the straight and growing unemployment and poor-quality eco-
sidered to be unviable, and On Thursday, the central subsidy to Aadhaar-linked bank better had it not been
prompt steps for recovery or sale bank issued final rules similar to Eventful tenure: Delhi chief minister Arvind Kejriwal pays homage at accounts has been suspended accompanied by
of assets in the case of loans at the measures outlined in the Rajghat, the memorial of Mahatma Gandhi, on Martyrs’ Day in New until a committee created to an- cynical calculations of
the risk of turning bad.
RBI has been worried about
the pile-up of bad loans in In-
dia’s banking system as slower
economic growth, which
slumped to 5% in the last fiscal
working paper after taking pub-
lic feedback into account.
Lenders will need to carve out
as special category of assets
termed special mention ac-
counts (SMAs) in which early
Delhi. The fledgling Aam Aadmi Party leader government on Thursday
completed one month in power in Delhi.
ALSO
SEE
>Kejriwal says no question of banning khap panchayats
>Meera Sanyal, Mayank Gandhi in AAP’s list of probable candidates
>P5
>P5
alyse the scheme, including ad-
ministrative and technical diffi-
culties, submits its report.
TURN TO PAGE 3®
political gains by most
political parties at the
Centre and in Andhra
Pradesh.
Evidence in a cock-fighting case,
narrow. It is not that it trades in untruths. The nomic development. Ideally, a realistic exami-
year—the least in a decade— signs of stress are visible.
high borrowing costs and stalled Accounts within this category
projects make it difficult for cor-
porate borrowers to repay debt.
will be put under three sub-cat-
egories, based on the period for New transfer CREW VIOLATIONS
About `2 trillion in loans is which their principal or interest
pricing orders DGCA cancels six flight slots
problem is different: it appears to sidestep some nation of the economy—in the true democratic
now classified as bad loans and
at least `4 trillion is being re-
structured. Together, this consti-
tutes about 10% of all bank loans.
A report released on Thursday by
India Ratings and Research Pvt.
Ltd, an arm of global credit rat-
ing agency Fitch, said stressed
assets, including bad loans and
restructured loans, are likely to
payments are overdue. The du-
ration of overdue payments can
range from under 30 days to 90
days. Loan repayments that are
more than 90 days overdue are
classified as non-performing as-
sets (NPAs) under existing regu-
lations.
If a borrower’s interest or
principal payments are overdue
against Shell,
Vodafone
B Y K HUSHBOO N ARAYAN
P .R . S ANJAI &
U TPAL B HASKAR
of Jet Airways, IndiGo, GoAir
B Y T ARUN S HUKLA
tarun.s@livemint.com
·························
HINDUSTAN TIMES
has been in touch with DGCA
on the issue. “Furthermore,
the airline has investigated the
Cops have the bird in their embrace.
by more than 60 days, a joint ························· NEW DELHI matter and have confirmed
I
Love among the chickens - no Bertie Wooster.
MUMBAI/NEW DELHI
NOTE TO READERS lenders’ forum must be formed ndia’s aviation regulator has that the diversions occurred
by the bankers for early resolu-
T he transfer pricing wing of cancelled two flight slots on ATR type of airplane. These
crucial questions. Let us take up some illustra- spirit of full disclosure—would have helped The fourpage Media Marketing tion of stress, RBI said. the income-tax (I-T) de- each of Jet Airways (India) Ltd, aircraft are not cleared to con-
supplement with this edition is the The new rules also offer in- partment has passed fresh or- IndiGo, and GoAir for not fol- duct approaches below CAT I
equivalent of a paidfor centives to lenders to quickly ders against the Indian units of lowing rules. All six flights minimums due to regulatory
advertisement, and no Mint and collectively agree to a reso- Europe’s largest oil producer were from Delhi. restrictions,” a Jet spokeswom-
journalists were involved in lution plan by offering better Royal Dutch Shell Plc and larg- The airlines had flight crew an said.
creating it. Readers would do well regulatory treatment for stressed est phone firm Vodafone on their planes who were not GoAir admitted there was a
to treat it as an advertisement. assets where such a plan is un- Group Plc that can potentially trained in landing under heavy diversion.
der implementation. lead to tax demands for a com- fog, the Directorate General of “Before departure of any
tive examples. The first is its exultation over the citizens make independent assessments. The
As a way to discourage long- bined `24,960 crore, adding to Civil Aviation (DGCA) found. flight, the en-route and desti-
drawn-out negotiations between the tax troubles of the two DGCA has made it mandatory nation weather is ascertained.
bankers, RBI said accelerated companies. for pilots to be trained in so- Extreme conditions: DGCA found The available weather forecast
provisioning will be applicable if In the case of Shell India called CAT III operations for the airlines had flight crew on at the time of departure of the
no agreement can be reached. Markets Pvt. Ltd, the tax au- safe flight in the foggy months their planes who were not trained two GoAir flights on 29 January
Gross NPAs of 40 listed Indian thority has added `72,000 of winter, particularly in in landing under heavy fog. from Mumbai and Ahmedabad
banks rose to `2.29 trillion as of crore to its taxable income for northern India. to Delhi showed visibility to be
September, up 37% from last the financial year 2010-11. It There have already been two of repeated efforts in this re- within permissible limits. The
year. Rising bad and restruc- has added `3,200 crore to the emergencies this winter, when gard, two flights each of Jet forecast showed a decline in
economy hitting its growth stride in the midst government may have pushed the envelope by
tured loans hurt the profitability taxable income of Vodafone pilots have said they were Airways, GoAir and IndiGo visibility to CAT III condition
of banks because they have to India Services Pvt Ltd for 2009- about to run out of fuel after were diverted from Delhi to from 4am onwards on 30 Janu-
set aside more money top cover 10. hovering over airports for too Jaipur.” ary,” its spokeswoman said.
such loans. The orders do not specify long. They were given clear- DGCA said this deviation “The visibility at Delhi
An important part of the new the tax demand, but back-of- ance for emergency landing by was brought to the notice of dropped unexpectedly after
framework is the independent the-envelope calculations air traffic control at Delhi and airlines, but they refused to act the departure of our flights,
evaluation of large-value re- show that Shell India and Vo- Jaipur airports. according to the rules. It is thus necessitating a diversion
dafone India can face de- “DGCA has been in continu- usual for DGCA to announce to Jaipur.”
TURN TO BACK PAGE ® mands to pay `24,000 crore ous touch with airlines to en- slot cancellations publicly. DGCA had earlier this
of global turmoil, while the rest of the world’s breaking with convention, but sadly, it’s an
and `960 crore, respectively. sure deployment of CAT III IndiGo declined to com- month issued a warning to air-
ALSO SEE Foreign investors have been compliant aircraft and CAT III ment. Jet and GoAir said they lines to deploy pilots trained to
Mint is also available for R8 with
concerned about a raft of tax trained crew during fog peri- are explaining the matter to fly under foggy conditions and
Hindustan Times in Delhi-NCR only >Inflation stands in the way of growth: od,” the regulator said in a DGCA.
Raghuram Rajan >P20 TURN TO PAGE 2® statement. “However, in spite Jet Airways said the airline TURN TO PAGE 3®
Mint is available with Mint Indulge for R15 and
MY VIEW | EX MACHINA
A
couple of weeks ago, a video featur- rapid advances in generative artificial intelli- technology has said it will soon release new representations of reality and as such trusted I believe that we will inevitably extend the
ing cricket legend Sachin Tendulkar gence (AI), they have over the past year or so regulations aimed at to be irrefutable evidence. same level of mistrust to the videos we are
started circulating on social media. become so much easier to create. What was ensuring that the social But, in time, darkroom shown. When presented with a clip of some-
In it, he was talking up a mobile game called once a niche capability only available to media platforms through Wrongdoers technicians realized that it one saying or doing something out of char-
Skyward Aviator Quest, marvelling at how teams with access to massive training data which these videos are dis- was possible to manipulate acter, rather than blindly believing the evi-
his daughter was able to make ₹180,000 on sets and advanced programming capability seminated implement must not get photographs so the truth dence of our eyes, we will wonder whether
it every day and pointing out how amazed he can now be generated by you and me using appropriate measures to could be creatively dis- it is fake. This to me is the only way we can
was that this was possible using an app that any one of a number of off-the-shelf AI servi- proactively identify and
to benefit from torted. Using processing even hope to combat the avalanche of deep-
THEIR VIEW M I N T C U R AT O R
This year marked the return of state capex alongside central; the next year could mark a pivot from fiscal to monetary easing
REUTERS
ANDY MUKHERJEE
is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering
industrial companies and financial services
in Asia.
PRANJUL BHANDARI
is chief India and Indonesia economist at HSBC.
L
enders in the world’s two most popu-
lous nations are having very different
problems with monetary and fiscal
I
t’s that time of the year. All eyes are on the taps. In China, creditors are drowning in Indian banks face a liquidity shortage but
budget this Thursday, closely followed by the cheap central-bank cash, but loan demand RBI awaits fuller policy transmission
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policy meeting a is muted. In India, banks are in the middle
week later. What’s at stake? What could of their fastest expansion in a decade, but ment is predicting $100 billion in inflows in
change? And what will this mean for RBI? they’re parched for liquidity. the coming years. Still, courting foreign
While the upcoming budget is an interim While the Chinese authorities’ struggle investors on a more durable basis will
one, and the government will release the final to stimulate the economy with 3 trillion require fixing the government’s rickety fis-
budget after the May national elections, it’s still yuan ($418 billion) in long-term cash cal house. The Modi administration wants
important as the final budget is likely to follow injections has the world’s attention, the to make a start by not reporting a deficit
along similar lines. The interim budget will also set Indian deficit is also beginning to worry much higher than the budgeted 5.9% of
the stage for state budgets that take cues from the investors. gross domestic product for this fiscal year,
central government to varying degrees. The Barely a few months before the next gen- even though nominal GDP is going to be a
interim budget will also signal how serious the eral election, Prime Minister Narendra lower than it had assumed; its 7.3% real or
central government is about fiscal consolidation. Modi’s administration has cut back on inflation-adjusted growth is on the back of
Recall that it plans to lower the fiscal deficit from spending. That’s hurting lenders. Funds an 8.9% nominal expansion against an ini-
5.9% of gross domestic product (GDP) in fiscal year that left bank accounts as advance tax pay- tial estimate of 10.5%.
2023-24 to 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26. ments by companies in December would The other important actor in India’s
A lot has happened on the fiscal front in the past only return as deposits as New Delhi starts liquidity drama is the central bank. After
year, with some efforts better known than others. writing checks to contractors working on the US Federal Reserve starts reducing
But together, they will likely set the boundaries for government projects. But with the fiscal interest rates, the Reserve Bank of India
the upcoming budget. We discuss some of these year approaching its 31 March end, there’s will come under pressure to do the same.
below. no sign of a last-minute acceleration. But RBI’s tightening is yet to transmit fully
Soaring tax receipts saved central targets: Tax The liquidity drought may be deliberate. through the Indian economy. The stock
revenues have soared so much that they’re now Unlike Beijing, New Delhi has every reason market is frothy and inflation has been
0.3% of GDP higher than budgeted. This buoyancy to be sanguine about growth. A 7%-plus unmoored from 4% for so long that there’s
will likely fund a rise in subsidies and any special rate of economic expansion gives India a real danger that people will stop believing
spending packages announced on budget day. breathing room to slay inflation before that the monetary authority is committed
Capital expenditure is expected to show a rise in embarking on a fresh investment spree to achieving it.
2023-24, but not by as much as budgeted (22% after the polls. Unless the Modi govern- Hence, RBI also appears reluctant to
year-on-year versus 36%). All considered, the fiscal Given the spending momentum, we expect the this switch supported growth. ment surprises analysts by announcing ease the current liquidity shortage, lest
deficit is likely to be in line with the budgeted 5.9% consolidated state fiscal deficit to rise to about 3% Once we account for that, we find that the populist spending programmes in its lenders become too comfortable and stop
of GDP in 2023-24. of GDP in 2023-24, which is the permissible upper ‘adjusted’ fiscal impulse has been positive between interim budget, a reasonable assumption is mobilizing deposits. The monetary author-
Taxes are likely to grow quickly in 2024-25 as limit, and remain at that level in 2024-25. 2018-19 and 2023-24. And while it may turn nega- that it’s angling for an upgrade to its sover- ity wants banks to pay extra for funds and
well (we assume tax buoyancy of 1.1%). After all, By our forecasts, this will peg the central-plus- tive in 2024-25 on the back of fiscal consolidation, eign rating, which is perched at the lowest charge more on loans, thus completing the
structural benefits, such as those made possible by state fiscal deficit at 8.2% of GDP in 2024-25, lower we think it will probably be only a limited drag on rung of investment grade. Meanwhile, the transmission of higher policy rates.
digitization and better tax information, are likely to than the 8.8% in 2023-24, but higher than the pre- growth. monetary authority is seeking to buttress The problem is that credit demand is
help for many years. Capital receipts may also pandemic level of 5.9%. It is not a surprise to us that Fiscal policy influenced RBI decisions: All of this its credibility as an inflation fighter. high for unsecured consumer loans, and
increase post elections if some pending disinvest- debt levels remain well above pre-pandemic levels affects RBI decisions. High growth so far in The all-around tightfistedness is not pushing more of it out the door may lead to
ment comes through as a policy priority. and could remain so in the foreseeable future. 2023-24, supported to a large extent by govern- helping Indian banks. Dismal quarterly concentration risk. Demand for advances
The government could shave current expendi- Borrowing patterns have changed: Rising state ment capex, has been one of the reasons why results from HDFC Bank—India’s largest from industrial firms is weak and might not
ture after elections, perhaps by cutting in half expenditure has also shown up in market borrow- the country’s central bank has maintained a tight lender by market value—have made it the hold up if borrowing costs are higher for
the increase since pre-pandemic levels (as a pro- ing. Going by data for the first three quarters, we monetary policy. worst-performing stock on the benchmark longer. That could delay a post-election
portion of GDP). Meanwhile, we expect capex to estimate that in 2023-24, while the central govern- But as the ‘adjusted’ fiscal impulse turns mildly Nifty Index this month. The 5% drop in the investment boom. RBI may have no choice
remain unchanged as a percentage of GDP in ment’s gross market borrowing is likely to rise by negative in 2024-25, and food disinflation contin- S&P BSE Bankex index since the end of except to ease the crunch with a durable
2024-25. 8.6% year-on-year, state government gross bor- ues, we believe RBI will turn less hawkish as the December has also shone a spotlight on a liquidity infusion.
All of this is likely to lead to a fiscal deficit of 5.3% rowing could increase by a staggering 23.3%. year progresses. Already, core inflation has sof- near-$40 billion liquidity deficit in the Indian banks’ price-to-book value of 1.8
in 2024-25, signalling that the government is In 2024-25, too, we expect the growth in gross tened over the past few months, led by falling com- banking system last week. is far higher than the multiple of 0.4 for
committed to its fiscal consolidation path (of a 4.5% state borrowing to surpass central government modity input prices, and food prices have fallen Then there’s the upcoming election. A their Chinese peers. The difference is
deficit by 2025-26). borrowing. Still, growth in gross market borrowing sharply in recent weeks. All of this together sug- repeat of the 2019 poll, when politicians understandable. With China Evergrande
States have ramped up good-quality spending: by state and central governments combined is gests that inflation could fall below 5% in January, spent $9 billion in the lead-up, a lot of it in Group’s liquidation order by a Hong Kong
While we have closely analysed central govern- likely to come in below the growth in nominal GDP and average 4.5% for the next three quarters. hard cash, will worsen lenders’ funding court clouding the outlook for an already
ment policy, the real action this year has been in (2.1% versus 10.6% year-on-year), making the over- This opens a window where we expect RBI to challenge. Before the 2019 polls, currency embattled housing industry, mainland
India’s state finances. After weak spending in all borrowing calendar broadly manageable. ease monetary conditions. We expect it to begin in circulation had risen by more than 9% in banks will struggle to protect profit even by
2022, the states ramped up their spending sharply The economic growth impulse was strong despite with easier liquidity, initially via a host of variable- 20 weeks. It took several months for the cutting deposits rates further. However,
in 2023. Notably, state capex was up 46% year-on- fiscal consolidation: We calculate the likely impact rate bond repurchases, followed by a change in its money to go back into the banking system. investors are only beginning to weigh the
year between April and November 2023. State rev- of fiscal consolidation on economic growth. Over stance to ‘neutral’ by around mid-2024, and finally The fiscal authority is perhaps waiting risk of a sharp squeeze on Indian banks’
enues did not grow as sharply. As a result, the cash this time, the quality of spending has improved, a 50 basis points repo rate cut in the second half of for a deluge of foreign money after JPMor- margins if the liquidity drought drags on.
balances of states fell, and market borrowings by switching from current expenditure to capex. With 2024, taking the repo rate to 6%. So, well, over to gan adds India to its emerging-markets Banks in both countries could be miserable
Indian states rose quickly. capex associated with higher growth multipliers, the monetary authorities. bond index in June. HSBC Asset Manage- in different ways. ©BLOOMBERG
GUEST VIEW
I
n the Doing Business rankings of the “In this country, the state is the largest liti- of monitoring litigation at the Union level, a opposition to it from vested interests. gation needs to be made difficult for the gov-
World Bank (now stopped), India fared gant and the huge expenditure involved web platform named Legal Let’s take an example of ernment to pursue. Before initiating any, by
very poorly on its component of contract makes a big draft on the public exchequer. In Information Management belated legal reforms. policy, relevant government officers should
enforcement—i.e. adjudication. In this con- the context of expanding dimensions of state & Briefing System (LIMBS) The government While the government has be required to provide a detailed explana-
text, the judiciary has called out the govern- activity and responsibility, it is not unfair to was created in 2016, and leveraged the goods and tion of why litigation is necessary, including
ment’s dichotomous approach in blaming expect finer sense and sensibility in its litiga- revised in 2019. It covers is our biggest services tax (GST) reform to how the particular matter reached a stage
courts for restricting ‘ease of doing business’ tion policy, the absence of which in the many courts, while tribu- showcase its success on the where it became inevitable, and why alter-
despite being the biggest litigant itself and present case led the Railways to callously nals are also being brought
litigator and we ease-of-doing-business native mechanisms to resolve the dispute in
10
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Real love is to love them that
hate you, to love your neighbour Mahatma
even though you distrust him Gandhi
T
HE Supreme Court set aside The lessons from the Supreme Court’s decision on the persons committing them. In the present
the remission of 11 convicts in case, Justice Nagarathna wrote that “the
INDIAN EXPRESS IS NOT AN the Bilkis Bano case and held Bilkis Bano case are not merely legal. They are historical, state of Gujarat acted in tandem and was
INDUSTRY. IT IS A MISSION. that they should be sent back to political and ethical. Society needs to heed the lessons complicit” in sabotaging truth and justice
— Ramnath Goenka prison. Even while underlying and in obtaining a judgement from the Su-
WHEN COURT
the significance of the reform- preme Court in 2022, which is now de-
ative theory of punishment clared as a nullity in the eyes of law. The
CAUTIONS
and the importance of remission policy in verdict also said that there was “usurpa-
general, Justice B V Nagarathna, who au- tion of jurisdiction” by the state of Gu-
EMBRACE AI AND
thored the judgement, exposed the illegal- jarat in granting remission.
THE NATION
ity that had vitiated the whole process of It is not only the heinous nature of the
USE IT WISELY
remission. The judgement examined each offence that should trouble the conscience
argument in support of the government’s of the nation. It is the fanaticism that nor-
TO TRANSFORM
action and repelled them with a unique malised such offences and propagated the
sense of clarity and judicial courage. The politics of hatred across the country that
judgement was also a search for truth. should concern us. It is the blatant use of
F
The court was required to interpret Sec- the machineries of the state to institution-
ROM deepfakes of celebrities to the tumultuous career path tion 432 of the Criminal Procedure Code alise the injustice that should trouble us.
of ChatGPT pioneer Sam Altman, artificial intelligence dealing with the power of the “appropri- KALEESWARAM RAJ Lawyer, Supreme Court of India The judgement has come at a time
(AI) has been hogging headlines for some time. And its own ate government” to “remit the whole or when the top court faced criticism for its
appearance on usage frequency maps—one of the first func- any part of the punishment”. The court failure to provide a check on many recent
said that in this case, the appropriate gov- executive and legislative measures. It
tions it revolutionised—is only set to zoom. New technology
ernment was the government of Mahar- failed to fix a time limit for re-conferring
throws up big hopes, but also the fear that there are demons hid- ashtra, since the case was transferred and state status on Jammu and Kashmir. The
den in the small print. The big debate raging is whether AI is a the trial was held in Maharashtra, which court was also criticised for approving
tool mainly harnessed by a few tech giants, and that the Global resulted in conviction and sentencing of actions ranging from demonetisation to
South might ultimately lose out. OpenAI, which crafted Chat- the accused. Section 432(2) mandates that economic reservation.
GPT, has Microsoft as it majority stakeholder. The seven Big the opinion of the judge who convicted the In the remission case, however, the top
Tech firms including Meta and Apple have added an eye-water- accused should be sought. The trial judge, court performed its constitutional dhar-
who is conversant with the case, should ma as against a derailed executive. It was
ing $4.6 trillion to their market values since November 2022, also provide reasons in support of her a reminder to the court itself during the
when ChatGPT launched. But for India, AI could mean a serious opinion. This provision was breached. Re- tough times of majoritarian onslaught.
loss of jobs and a chunk of the lucrative Western marketplace. mission was granted by the Gujrat govern- Justice Nagarathna reiterated the funda-
For the US and Europe, always short of skilled manpower, AI ment, not Maharashtra. mentals of the Rule of Law by stating that
is already proving to be a huge boon. However, for India and But the contention of the Gujarat gov- “no one, howsoever high or low, is above
similarly placed economies burdened by unemployment, the ernment was that its order for premature the law” and that “Rule of Law does not
release was based on the directions of the mean protection to a fortunate few”.
worry that many will lose their jobs to AI is real. The recent Supreme Court. The top court, in May The selective misuse or non-use of pe-
waves of retrenchment in ed-tech firms and in digital ecom- 2022, had directed the Gujarat government nal laws is a contemporary reality in In-
merce outfits such as Flipkart and Swiggy have rung alarm to deal with the request for premature re- dia. In many states, bulldozers are in-
bells. Union transport minister Nitin Gadkari rightly pointed lease of the accused, based on its remis- voked as a means of community
out that AI-engineered ‘driverless’ cars may be welcome in la- sion policy of 1992. The court has now re- punishment. Fake encounter killings as
bour-shortage economies; but what sense does it make for India jected this contention mainly on two a means of instant punishment also are
grounds—one, the said verdict was ob- SOURAV ROY not uncommon. Draconian laws like the
to take away the jobs of thousands of drivers?
tained by suppressing many things, in- Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act or
The flip side is that new technology has often conjured up the cluding an earlier decision by the Gujarat merely legal. They are historical, political Ibsen said, “The majority is always UAPA are blatantly misused for suppress-
fear of job losses. From the 18th century farmhands smashing High Court and the opinion given by the and ethical. The court correctly finds that wrong.” Politics in India has always ing dissent. On the other hand, political
machines fearing for their livelihood, to workers striking against presiding judge in Maharashtra, which “the grotesque and diabolical crime” was proved him right. affiliation has often created an effective
computerisation, new productive tools have always been looked did not support remission; and two, the “driven by communal hatred”. The gang The idea of the Rule of Law conceptual- impunity to the higher-ups in cases rang-
at with suspicion at first. But history has also proved that while judgement ignored the law and binding rape of a pregnant woman along with her ised by jurist A V Dicey in the context of ing from molestation to murder.
some jobs were lost to technology, the economy multiplied mani- judicial precedents with respect to the pre- mother and her cousin was followed by the British system is now an integral facet The grievous injury to the very idea of
mature release of convicts. the murder of many in the family includ- of modern constitutions across the world. democracy signals our transformation to
folds to create more, higher-paying jobs. Like the steam engine The present judgement is an illustrative ing those who were raped. Young children It is the surest check against abuse of pow- an ethnic autocracy. The culprits are now
or the computer, AI is but a tool. Besides driverless cars, it can instance of the court’s counter-majoritar- and other close relatives of the petitioner er and authoritarianism. brought back to prison as directed by the
be used for countless applications to raise production and nar- ian function in the process of judicial re- also were murdered. A three-year-old Yet, the Rule of Law is not a blind adher- court. The court has done its part and it is
row the yawning income gap. For instance, public services like view. It confronted the state’s executive child’s head was smashed, according to ence to the laws. There could be strict in- for the society to take the message for-
health and education are hobbled by badly-trained teachers and power and drew boundaries for an aggran- the prosecution. vocation of laws even under a king or a ward. Judge Learned Hand had put the
health workers. AI can make a difference by raising standards dising government. It underlined the sig- The politics based on religious fanati- military regime or a demagogue. There- point in perspective: “A society so riven
nificance of the Rule of Law, which would cism, which led to this and other grue- fore, the Rule of Law should be understood that the spirit of moderation is gone, no
and improving access. Applying for a bank loan for a farmer can also mean equality before the law and some incidents, is an issue before the na- and ensured in the democratic and consti- court can save... a society where that spirit
become a breeze. AI-driven language translation services are equal protection of the laws, as promised tion. Mere reliance on a majority or tutional sense of the term. Law cannot flourishes, no court need save.”
already making a difference. AI, like any other technology, is not by Article 14 of the Constitution. electoral victory does not justify acts distinguish between crimes based on the (Views are personal)
an end itself. Used to the right ends, it can be revolutionary. The lessons from the judgement are not which are ostensibly inhuman. As Henrik religion, caste or political affiliation of the (kaleeswaramraj@gmail.com)
T
WO of India’s Himalayan states have reported an alarm-
ing level of forest fires right in the middle of winter. In
the months of December and January, satellites cap-
BENGAL ON MIGRANT WORKERS Judicial discipline
Ref: Contain indiscipline at Calcutta High
Court with an iron hand (Jan 30). I agree
with the concern over a single-judge bench
T
tured 2,050 fire points in Himachal Pradesh, registering
HE Kerala model of providing overruling a decision of a two-judge bench.
a near 800 percent jump over last year. During the same
social health security to inter- The recent Calcutta High Court incident
time, at least 2,132 fire alerts were received from Uttarakhand, state migrant workers has involving a CBI probe into a medical seat
which is another record for the state. The 10,000-odd winter been widely discussed. What scam by the ruling party has raised concerns.
wildfires have left environmentalists perplexed, because the has received lesser attention is BIJULAL M V Principal investigator, GOI-SERB Project on Justice Abhijit Gangopadhyay’s actions,
fire season usually begins mid-February and lasts till June, the work done by states send- Interstate Migrant Workers, ignoring a stay order and accusing another
which means the worse is yet to come. ing out those workers. Inter- Mahatma Gandhi University, Kottayam judge, breached judicial discipline.
The real concern is the rapid surge in such incidences in recent state workers arriving in Kerala are Zoya Muiez, email
treated as ‘migrant workers’ when they Kerala—the government figures are not of who have joined will get a one-time
times. Himachal Pradesh recorded 536 forest fires during Novem- register with the State Labor Office of precise—7 lakh to 10 lakh migrant work- payment of `2.25 lakh in case of the Nitish’s choice
ber 2019-June 2020, which jumped to 5,280 in the same period of Kerala under the Inter-State Migrant La- ers in the state are from West Bengal. On death of a worker. Migrant workers will Ref: The U-turn politics of Janata Dal (U)
2021-22. For Uttarakhand, the number of large, continuous and bor Act, 1979. They are eligible to apply the other hand, an organisation called get an allowance of `5,000 after the age (Jan 30). The article’s analyses threadbare
repeated forest fires over the same periods three years apart rose for the benefits of Awas Insurance and the Bangla Sanskriti Manch recorded of 60 and the board aims to help educate the reasons why Nitish Kumar went back to
from 759 to 12,985. A global biodiversity hotspot, the Himalayan Migrant Welfare Scheme. This has been that the number of migrant workers the children of such workers too. the NDA. His aspiration to be named the PM
region is known for its species’ endemism and vulnerability, hailed as a progressive model. who went back to West Bengal from vari- Kerala, for itself, runs 14 educational candidate was halted. On the other hand, he
A quarter century has passed since ous states during the pandemic lock- projects for migrant workers and their feared he would lose his CM’s post as pressure
which are exacerbated by forest fires. Besides, wildfires impact
Kerala became a hub of migrant work- children. The state government also of- was mounting to install Tejaswi Yadav in his
the forest cover, which can potentially accelerate landslides in a ers. Though data on them can be con- fers a death insurance cover to all mi- stead. One cannot blame him for leaving the
region increasingly devastated by such calamities. While the cur- fusing or imprecise at times, some re- grant workers who are members of its opposition bloc.
rent winter fires are being attributed to inadequate rainfall and ports give us an idea. The Kerala Awas Insurance; so far it has made 36 M Haneef, Kottayam
the near-absence of snowfall, rising anthropogenic activity Planning Board Report of 2024 says the payouts under the scheme.
changing land-use patterns is another culprit. interstate workforce is 34-lakh-strong Our fieldwork suggests a few other Preventing accidents
in the state. On the policies aimed at steps that would help. To reduce cases Ref: Four students die, 28 hurt as school bus
The real threat from climate change can be seen across the
them, the Interstate Migrant Policy In- of harassment and arrest on the suspi- rams tractor at Algur village in Karnataka
world. Colombia has declared forest fires a natural disaster after dex of 2019 highlights Kerala’s com- cion of being Bangladeshis who illegal- (Jan 30). It’s deeply saddening to learn about
it devastated thousands of hectares since November. In Indone- mendable performance—it secured the ly entered India, the West Bengal Mi- the accident involving innocent students. The
sia, a million hectares burnt uncontrollably last year. With El top position among states for its robust grant Welfare Board should issue photo government must take efficient road safety
Niño in play, India must adopt caution, because the Himalayan health and safety measures catering to identity cards. measures to curb such incidents rather than
EXPRESS
states are not the only vulnerable regions. Central, eastern and migrant workers. Migrant workers within the country just providing financial compensation.
southern India has borne the brunt as prolonged summers have Among the interstate migrant work- can only truly benefit if the central and Jahangir Ali, Mumbai
ers arriving in Kerala, those from West state governments work together. It is
sent forest fire numbers soaring. A recent IIT Delhi study said Exam pressures
that rising temperatures will lead to further increases in the fire
Bengal form the largest cohort. An ac- Kerala receives a large number of precisely because West Bengal under-
curate and updated number of such migrant workers and has formulated stood the importance of the money that In a shocking incident, a JEE aspirant staying
weather index by the end of the century. Its calculation says the workers is elusive as the last census was such migrant workers remit back home in Rajasthan’s Kota died by suicide just days
fire season in Himalayan regions could expand by 33 days, where- conducted in 2011. The Census 2011 several welfare policies for them. that they established such a welfare ahead of the exam. The latest tragedy shows
as across central India the increase could be as much as 61 days. records show that there has been a high- West Bengal, which sends out a board. The central government should how tough entrance exams are causing severe
We need more scientific research, technology back-up and com- er influx of migrant workers from West large number of labourers to Kerala set up such a welfare board too. If their mental agony and panic among the youth. It is
munity outreach. States now have individual plans to battle the
Bengal, Assam, Orissa and Bihar to Ker- and elsewhere, has set up a welfare movements and work demands are high time that the ministry of education takes
ala since 2000. However, top officials board to help them. The Centre mapped in a clearer manner, workers suitable measures so that youngsters are not
raging forest fires. That strategy must change. A national plan from West Bengal gave the authors an from each district or block can be given pushed to take such harsh measures.
and other states can learn valuable
that caters to biodiverse geographies with specific needs must be idea of the numbers that had migrated relevant training before they migrate. M Pradyu, Kannur
devised with adequate infrastructure and funding. and field research showed some areas
lessons from these two models Also, workers who are not willing to
that can be improved upon. work outside the state should be pre- Scheme shortage
Based on a study conducted in 40 vil- downs was 14 lakh. The authors con- pared for self-reliant projects in the Ref: TN noon meal workers in a pickle as
Q U I C K TA K E lages in West Bengal from November 11 firmed this information with higher block areas, and loans should be ar- 40% posts vacant (Jan 30). The midday
to December 4, 2023, the authors identi- officials in Bengal. ranged in collaboration between the meal scheme is a significant social welfare
ANOTHER HOBSON’S CHOICE fied signs that such migration has in- Samirul Islam, chairman of the Mi- Centre and states. programme. But the fact that more than
59,000 posts are vacant in the state exposes
B
creased in recent years. But they face a grant Welfare Board and a Rajya Sabha Another problem migrant workers
Y jailing populist Imran Khan and clearing the path for number of prejudices too. That is why member, says that some 22 lakh workers often face is of not getting their dues poor management. Moreover, the existing
pragmatist Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan has reverted to form. the West Bengal government has set up from West Bengal who are currently from the contractor. So, helplines workers are paid low wages. Creating jobs with
Its first national election in 1970 eventually led to the a Migrant Welfare Board, the first such working in other states have registered should be established all over India to decent wage structure should be main focus.
body in the state that will help workers on the board’s Karmasathi web portal, help them through legal complications. S Ramakrishnasayee, Chennai
breakup of the state; none of its 10 elections since have been migrating out of the state in various and verification has been completed for A dedicated legal cell set up by the cen-
without an overhanging cloud of unfairness. Imran’s supposed ways. They aim to prevent workers 15 lakh of them. It is understood that the tral government can guarantee more Better ambulances
affronts were too much for the all-powerful Pakistan Army to from the state being labelled as Bangla- welfare board is in the process of ap- contractual security. Xplore Health page was full of information
digest; so he was charged with an offence as rare and jerry-built deshis, kept away from workplaces, and pointing nodal officers in other states to The Kerala and Bengal models can that is crucial for critically ill patients.
as leaking official secrets. Pakistani voters might have been illegally detained by the police. Right track the activities of the migrants and be emulated by other states. And the Ambulances without advanced life support
now, it operates as an independent body help them. central government can play a pivotal equipment led to the loss of many lives during
handed yet another Hobson’s choice. But the options before looking after the welfare of labourers Officials explained why becoming a role in this. the pandemic. Ambulances around the country
nation—on economy, debt and borders—are all too existential. migrating out. member of the Migrant Welfare Board (With inputs from Navas M Khadar, need to be fitted with proper equipment.
We hope the next government will choose wisely. According to various studies done in through Karmasathi helps. The families associate, GOI-SERB project ) Pratap Nayak, Bhubaneswar
06
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Masterstroke or
Nitish switching sides leaves the INDIA bloc in
confusion but limits his own bargaining power
n a move that did not leave many seasoned politicians flabbergasted, JD(U) leader
political Harakiri? KALYANI SHANKAR
I Nitish Kumar has executed a somersault by rejoining the BJP alliance barely 18
months after he walked out of the NDA, spilling bad blood all around. Importantly,
his latest move saw Nitish abandoning the plank of Opposition unity, which he was
Nitish Kumar has rejoined forces with the BJP, cementing his reputation as a leader
passionately championing until very recently. In fact, he was the de facto convener known for frequent shifts in political alliances for personal benefit
of the INDIA bloc, which has been cobbled together to take on the BJP's national n Sunday, Bihar
O
might. As a prime mover of the INDIA bloc, Nitish's departure puts a cloud over the Chief Minister
coalition's future, which may have to undergo a realignment, potentially impacting Nitish Kumar
its cohesiveness and effectiveness. However, there is more to this development than threw a bombshell
meets the eye: While it certainly is a major setback for the Opposition, what with by leaving the rul-
ing Mahagathbandhan in Bihar
Mamata Banerjee and Bhagwant Mann already having announced to go it alone in and returning to the NDA.
their respective States of West Bengal and Punjab, it provides an obvious edge to coalition. He also quit the oppo-
the BJP while straitjacketing Nitish from perform- sition coalition which he had
ing any more antics, at least till the Bihar Assembly built eight months ago. This dis-
mantling of the bloc has dealt a
elections next year. significant blow to the INDIA.
The lack of communication between Bihar Chief bloc at the national level. They
Minister Nitish and his deputy, RJD's Tejashwi Yadav, missed the slim chance of defeat-
is said to have compounded their unease with each ing the BJP. in the upcoming Lok
Sabha polls. It is worth explor-
other. Matters did not help when Central agencies ing how Bihar's politics may
started questioning Tejashwi's mother and sister in affect the national landscape.
the alleged land-for-jobs scam. The BJP's inclina- Kumar's decision to return to the
tion towards a representative from an extremely back- NDA. fold could benefit the BJP.
but weaken the Rashtriya Janata
ward caste or a prominent Other Backward Classes Dal (RJD.) and Congress in
(OBC) group adds complexity to the situation. Nitish Bihar. It could ultimately impact
has the additional duty of ensuring that Bihar adds the opposition bloc at the
handsomely to the NDA's kitty in the general elections. Nitish's decision to realign national level. This BJP.- J.D. (U)
partnership could improve the
with the BJP has far-reaching consequences, influencing not only his political tra- chances of the BJP. winning
jectory but also the future dynamics of the NDA and INDIA bloc. Interestingly, the more seats in the upcoming
Bihar developments coincide with Rahul Gandhi's Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra entering 2024 general elections and help Banerjee subsequently pro- failed when Mallikarjun the age of 72. The BJP's dis-
the State. It is sure to have a dampening effect on the Congress’ campaign and lower Modi achieve a hat trick. posed the name of Congress Kharge was chosen as the mantling of the INDIA. bloc
The BJP. tried to break the chief Kharge as the coalition leader of the new coalition. may facilitate Prime Minister
its confidence considerably. However, nothing can be said with finality about Nitish. opposition coalition and partner chief, a move Tyagi claims Consequently, Nitish Kumar Modi to win his third term.
It will all depend on the understanding he has with the BJP and how the latter treats with the J.D. (U) alliance. The was part of a broader conspir- sided with the (BJP.). In Bihar, mobilising OBC
him. His switch was ostensibly prompted by the treatment he received from his INDIA Party sees Nitish Kumar as a acy. Tyagi stated that Nitish Kumar's credibility has been votes to achieve electoral suc-
partners. During alliance meetings, clashes of aspirations and perceived attempts critical ally in Bihar and believes Kumar mobilised an alliance tarnished because of his cess is imperative. In
their partnership can win in the that united all non-Congress unwavering desire to hold November 2023, Bihar
by the RJD to expand its influence within the JD(U) hint at a shifting power dynam- 2024 elections. Kumar has only parties. power, regardless of the increased the reservation for
ic. Nitish's political somersault and his realignment with the BJP have unleashed a 45 seats in the current Assembly, However, it is now disinte- repercussions. He has Scheduled Castes and
series of ripple effects that extend far beyond the borders of Bihar. The departure of while the RJD. and BJP. have 78 grating. The situation in changed political allegiances Extremely Backward Castes.
this seasoned politician from the INDIA bloc has injected an element of uncertainty and 79 seats, respectively. Punjab and Bihar is on the several times, always for his It is unclear how long the
Despite this, Nitish managed to verge of collapse, and the benefit, and currently holds Nitish and the BJP partner-
into the political equations, casting shadows over the future cohesion and effective- continue as the chief minister. coalition in West Bengal is LALU YADAV, THE the title of Chief Minister ship will last.
ness of the coalition. The nation observes closely as this strategic realignment unfolds, Did the Congress party have a also falling apart. Nitish con- with the longest tenure. They may work together until
shaping the future contours of Indian politics. hand in Nitish Kumar's depar- firmed that he left the INDIA. LEADER OF THE Nitish's track record shows the upcoming Lok Sabha
ture from the IN.D.I.A. opposi- alliance because it didn't meet RASHTRIYA JANATA that after exploring other polls, but what will happen
tion bloc? The reason behind his expectations. He felt he options in 2013, Nitish afterwards is uncertain. The
PICTALK this setback was the decision to
sideline Nitish and promote
was the only one working
towards the coalition's goals.
DAL (RJD), Kumar left the BJP and allied
with the RJD. and Congress.
Bharatiya Janata Party may
support Nitish only until the
Congress. Kumar accused the Although the partnership has ENCOURAGED NITISH After the 2019 Lok Sabha Lok Sabha polls and their
Party of being responsible for the brought together all non- KUMAR TO FORM AN elections, he aligned with the support could decrease after-
failed alliance, arguing that the Congress parties, the alliance BJP. again and became the wards-some question
situation arose due to poor disintegrated in West Bengal OPPOSITION Chief Minister in 2020. whether the alliance will con-
communication. and almost collapsed in Bihar However, two years later, tinue until the 2025 Bihar
KC Tyagi of the Janata Dal- and Punjab. COALITION AT THE Kumar left the BJP and Assembly polls.
United (JDU) has levelled accu- There is also an untold story. NATIONAL LEVEL TO formed a new government Nitish has shown that it's pos-
sations against the Congress Lalu Yadav, the leader of the with the RJD. and Congress. sible to retain power by using
party that it conspired to dom- Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), AIM FOR PRIME Now he has dumped the RJD. clever bargaining skills and
inate the Opposition bloc. On encouraged Nitish Kumar to That is why he is called Palti winning a few seats, even if
January 13th in Mumbai, the form an opposition coalition MINISTERSHIP Ram. only 4% of the electorate
Chief (CPI-M) Sitaram Yechori at the national level to aim for Despite being an experienced belongs to their caste. But one
proposed Nitish Kumar as the the position of Prime politician, Nitish Kumar's thing is sure: Given Nitish's
convener of the bloc. This sug- Ministerial candidate. The frequent changes in stance track record, there could be
gestion was supported by most purpose of this plan was to have cost him the chance to other flip-flops.
of the other leaders present. pave the way for Lalu Yadav's be considered as a prime (The writer is a popular
However, Rahul Gandhi voiced son to become the Chief ministerial candidate for the columnist; views
his disagreement. Mamata Minister. However, the plan opposition party, especially at are personal)
Artistes perform during the presentation of the best tableau in the Republic Day parade, in New Delhi PTI LETTERS TO THE EDITOR
THE BEHAVIOUR OF BUREAUCRATS
Sir — The idea of bureaucrats embodying IMD completes 150 years
A father's courageous fight exemplary conduct for the public takes a
blow when incidents like the Singrauli
SDM episode surface. His act of having a
(WAFES Framework of Climate Services (NFCS).
Over the years, the IMD has been playing a sig-
07
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FIRSTCOLUMN
AHIMSA: THE PATH TO
Drones can revolutionise
PEACEFUL EXISTENCE
Buddhism's essence lies in non-violence,
compassion and enlightenment
the agriculture sector AS MITTAL
T Maritime Domain
Awareness (MDA)
framework is crucial for
effective MDA models must be
prioritized as a fundamental
component of the maritime
take the lead in institutional-
izing MDA.
Recognising the inadequacy of
Domain Awareness (MDA)
capabilities, particularly in the
aftermath of the "26/11"
the MDA framework.
Integrating current unmanned
technology with human intel-
Initiatives such as the National
Command,
Communication,
Control,
and
security audits strengthen
MDA systems against evolving
cyber threats. India must mod-
addressing the challenges faced security outlook. This evolu- limited national capacity to attacks. Notable initiatives, ligence transforms marine Intelligence (NC3I) network ernise its technology and form
by maritime-dependent indus- tion is essential to proactively protect vast water expanses, such as the National Marine security. India can lead mar- demonstrate the scope of new cybersecurity alliances to
tries and nations worldwide. In address emerging threats, this necessitates fostering mul- Domain Awareness (NMDA) itime security by integrating MDA operations. Succinct handle marine security issues.
order to demonstrate the nec- enhance surveillance capabil- tilateral cooperation, promot- project and the collaboration these technology into marine and adaptable MDA is the Since the "26/11" event, India's
essary commitment towards ities, and foster international ing inclusivity, and leveraging with France on the Indian plans faster. Real-time threat result of periodic revisions in Navy and MDA have
the protection of marine infra- PADMALOCHAN DASH collaboration in securing mar- sophisticated technologies. As Ocean Region (IOR) satellite identification, thorough mon- response to emerging threats increased maritime security
structure and maritime itime interests. one of the largest maritime constellation, highlight India's itoring, vessel vetting, due dili- and the active participation of initiatives, demonstrating a
domains, India must strength- must undergo a significant In the context of multilateral operators strategically posi- proactive efforts to create an gence, and AI insights to opti- experts from diverse disci- commitment to securing the
en its maritime security pro- transformation, shifting from Maritime Domain Awareness tioned in the region, India integrated MDA network. To mise the MDA framework plines. For autonomous system whole maritime domain.
grammes by keeping the rapid- traditional water surface-cen- (MDA) cooperation, the should formalize a framework ensure a cohesive and success- are required. Technology, espe- integration and preparation Recent successes in right-time
ly changing maritime geopol- tric initiatives to embrace Maldives' geographical prox- for multilateral MDA cooper- ful MDA approach, there must cially AI, improves Maritime against emerging threats, a detection and fast eradication
itics and emergence of diverse space-based monitoring and imity to China's expansion ation involving relevant par- be a focus on establishing a Domain Awareness (MDA) specialised task force, learning of varied marine threats high-
threats in attention. By priori- AI-driven Operational goals and the rising maritime ties. This initiative can facili- specialised coordination body, for countries like India. For processes, and technology light MDA's naval operating
tising research and develop- Technology (OT) systems. The incidents underscore the crit- tate access to robust yet afford- conducting regular audits, and early threat detection, deliber- infrastructure updates are concept evolution. Investment
ment funding' and 'promoting focus on maritime security ical need for vigilant maritime able MDA resources, while evaluating past initiatives. ate investments in cutting- essential. It is imperative that in naval personnel training and
international MDA partner- needs to extend beyond terri- monitoring. Proactively also fostering intelligence shar- Recognizing the dynamic edge surveillance and intelli- collaborations be formed with cutting-edge technology would
ships,' India can position itself torial limitations to encompass addressing China's increasing ing and joint exercises to col- nature of maritime threats, the gence technology like ASVs, academic institutions, research help the Indian Navy meet
as the global leader in mar- regional and global perspec- influence in the South China lectively address diverse mar- involvement of multiple stake- UAVs, and UUVs are neces- centres, and technological MDA goals.
itime security. tives, recognizing the height- Sea is imperative. Given its sta- itime security challenges. holders and adaptability to sary. Autonomous systems like firms. Cybersecurity and inter- (The Author is working with
India's Maritime Domain ened competition in seas. tus as the largest stakeholder India has demonstrated a evolving scenarios are empha- ASVs, UAVs, and UUVs operability assure MDA an Independent Think Tank;
Awareness (MDA) concepts Given India's substantial glob- and the key actor in the Indian strong commitment to sized, contributing to the improve reaction and marine unmanned system security views are personal)