Executive

Summary
Attitudes towards
Gluten-/Wheat-Free
Food
UK, 2023

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Attitudes towards Gluten-/Wheat-Free Food, UK - 2023 2

THE INCOME SQUEEZE IS PUTTING CONSIDERABLE PRESSURE ON THE GLUTEN-/WHEAT-FREE MARKET,

EXACERBATED BY THESE PRODUCTS’ HIGHER PRICE THAN THEIR STANDARD EQUIVALENTS’. PRIORITISATION
OF GLUTEN-/WHEAT-FREE TREATS OVER ESSENTIALS IF MONEY WAS TIGHT AND INTEREST IN BRAND
COLLABORATIONS POINT TO OPPORTUNITIES TO KEEP PEOPLE ENGAGED. MEANWHILE, MAKING SUSTAINABLE
INGREDIENTS MORE CENTRAL TO PRODUCTS’ PROPOSITION CAN TAP INTO THE LONGER-TERM FOCUS ON
PLANETARY HEALTH.

Alice Pilkington, Senior Food and Drink Analyst

The five-year outlook for
gluten-/wheat-free foods
Figure 1 provides an overview of how
we expect the category to perform
over the coming five years in real terms.
Areas highlighted in red are expected
to show a significant fall in sales once
inflation has been taken into account.
Yellow reflects an expectation that
nominal sales will grow, but that the
market will still struggle to match the
change in CPI over the relevant period,
and green shows that we believe the
market is set for real-terms growth over
the period in question.

FIGURE 1: CATEGORY OUTLOOK, 2023-28

Source: Mintel, prepared 4 April 2023

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Attitudes towards Gluten-/Wheat-Free Food, UK - 2023 3

The market Renewed competition from once enjoyed. By 2027, value sales in
foodservice and focus on plant- the gluten-/wheat-free market are
Inflation drives gluten-/wheat-free based diets will chip away at market forecast to grow by 13.5% to £565
market’s value growth in 2022 from 2025 million.

The gluten-/wheat-free market
continued on an upward trajectory in
2022 with sales reaching £498 million.
However, this growth was fuelled by
high levels of food inflation, with weak
underlying performance. As the cost-
of-living crisis unfolded, the relatively
high cost of gluten-/wheat-free
foods in comparison to their standard
counterparts will have become more of
a barrier, particularly for those who do
not need to avoid gluten or wheat for
medical reasons.
Once pressures on household incomes
ease, consumer spending regaining
momentum should offer some support to
the market. However, the competition
for all food through retail from
foodservice will also be re-energised.
The buzz that the market previously
benefited from, around avoidance
diets supporting health, has been
eclipsed in recent years by the plant-
based trend. With the market now
far more developed, and the focus
on sustainability expected to persist
and grow, the market will no longer
be able to maintain the momentum it
Ingredient supply issues lead to rising
prices and availability problems
European droughts and the breakout of
the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022
have hit the supply of key ingredients
for gluten-/wheat-free products, such
as oats and rice. This has seen the cost
of these ingredients soar, with brands
having to pass on some of this to the
consumer in the form of rising prices.
Ingredient supply issues have also
contributed to problems with in-store
availability in 2021 and 2022.

FIGURE 2: MARKET FORECAST FOR VALUE SALES OF GLUTEN-/WHEAT-FREE FOODS, 2017-27

Key drivers affecting Mintel’s market forecast: consumer expenditure: Total (£), population and retail sales: food (£). For full details, see Appendix – Forecast
Methodology.
The coloured bands around the five-year forecast represent statistical prediction intervals. At the 95% prediction interval, for example, we are saying that 95 out
of 100 times, the forecast will fall within these outer limits.
Source: based on IRI/Mintel

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Attitudes towards Gluten-/Wheat-Free Food, UK - 2023 4

Companies and brands FIGURE 3: LEADING BRANDS’ SALES AND SHARES IN THE UK GLUTEN-
FREE BREAD, CAKE, MORNING AND BAKED GOODS RETAIL MARKET, BY
Warburtons credits success to VALUE, 2021 AND 2022
continued innovation

Warburtons has become one of the £m

biggest success stories in recent years Warburtons 29
within the gluten-/wheat-free space. 33
It bucked the decline in overall volume 26
Genius
sales in the gluten-free bread, cake 25
and baked good segment in 2022,
21
growing value sales by 13.8% to take a Dr Schär
23
market share of nearly a fifth by value.
Warburtons commented in 2022 that BFree 15
14
the success of its gluten-free range was
down to continued innovation. Mrs Crimble's 10
10

Rebranding and range extensions are 8

Other brands
key themes in 2022 launch activity 9

Own-label 61
Among key launch trends in the 67
gluten-free market in 2022 were
brand revamps, range extensions and 2021* 2022**
continued activity in premium seasonal
baked goods. The former included * 52 weeks ending 29 Jan 2022
Genius, Lazy Day and Morrisons ** 52 weeks ending 28 Jan 2023
refreshing their ranges, all putting Source: based on IRI/Mintel
more of a focus on the enjoyable
eating experience. Range extensions FIGURE 4: AVOIDANCE OF GLUTEN/WHEAT IN THE HOUSEHOLD, 2023
included bread and baked goods from
Warburtons, doughballs and calzones “Which of these foods/ingredients do you or other members of your
from White Rabbit and world cuisine household avoid?”
bread from BFree and Dr Schär.
%
The consumer Any avoidance 19
20
One in five avoid gluten, equal Avoid due to a food 7
number avoid wheat; usage allergy/intolerance 10
heavily skewed towards younger Avoid as part of a general healthy 9
demographics lifestyle 9

4
One in five consumers report avoidance Avoid for other reasons 2
of gluten or wheat in their household,
81
unchanged from 2022. Health stands Do not avoid 80
on a par with allergies/intolerance
as a reason to avoid wheat/gluten, Gluten Wheat
demonstrating how avoidance is driven
as much by ‘lifestyle’ considerations as Base: 1,951 internet users aged 18+ who consent to Mintel collecting and processing any special category
by medical necessity. data
Source: Kantar Profiles/Mintel, February 2023

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Attitudes towards Gluten-/Wheat-Free Food, UK - 2023 5

Usage of gluten-/wheat-free foods FIGURE 5: USAGE OF GLUTEN-/WHEAT-FREE FOODS, BY AGE, 2023

is heavily skewed towards younger
demographics. This is in line with “Which of the following types of food have you eaten in the last 6 months?
younger people being more likely to Please select all that apply.”
want to keep up with the latest healthy
eating trends. 88
81 80
Three in 10 view limiting gluten/ 71
wheat as expensive, nearly one in 58
63
54
five as good for digestive health
%
Three in 10 people (30%) view limiting/ 31 32 30
reducing gluten/wheat as expensive. 22 22
26
19
Those who need to avoid gluten or 15 16 17
10 9 10
wheat due to allergies/intolerances are 6
particularly acutely aware of the costs
attached to a diet that has to steer All 16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
clear of many low-cost staples. This also
echoes the high price of many gluten-/ Gluten-free Wheat-free I have not eaten these foods in the last 6 months
wheat-free foods compared to their Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+
standard counterparts, and underlines Source: Kantar Profiles/Mintel, February 2023
the pressure this puts on the market in
the income squeeze. FIGURE 6: PERCEPTIONS OF LIMITING/REDUCING INTAKE OF GLUTEN/
WHEAT, BY GLUTEN/WHEAT AVOIDANCE IN THE HOUSEHOLD, 2023
Nearly one in five (18%) people think
limiting gluten/wheat is good for “I think that limiting/reducing intake of gluten/wheat... Please select all
digestive health. Among people who that apply.”
hold this view, reported avoidance
of gluten or wheat in their household %
rises to 41%. With the link between fibre 30
...is expensive 30
and digestive health well established, 30
prominent high-fibre callouts should
18
help gluten-/wheat-free brands ...is good for digestive health 32
effectively lean into this connotation. 14

17
...is good for overall health 33
12

...is difficult to cater for (eg entertaining 15

20
guests) 14

11
...makes it harder to get enough fibre 16
10

11
...makes many indulgent foods off limits 18
9

11
...is a good way to control weight 22
8

9
...is good for energy levels 21
5

...makes you feel left out (eg difficult to 8

18
eat out with others) 5

37
None of these 9
45
All
Gluten/wheat avoidance in the household
Gluten/wheat non-avoidance in the household
Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+
Source: Kantar Profiles/Mintel, February 2023

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Attitudes towards Gluten-/Wheat-Free Food, UK - 2023 6

Half of gluten-/wheat-free buyers FIGURE 7: BEHAVIOURS RELATED TO GLUTEN-/WHEAT-FREE FOODS, BY

would prioritise treats if money was BUYERS AND NON-BUYERS, 2023
tight
“Do the following statements apply to you?”
That half (51%) of gluten-/wheat-free
buyers say they would prioritise treats %
over essentials if money was tight Money concerns would make me prioritise buying
demonstrates the appeal of indulgent gluten-/wheat-free treats over gluten-/wheat- 51
food and drink options in times of free essentials*
uncertainty. This highlights the need for
I would be interested in hearing about new 33
continued NPD in this area and justifies 72
gluten-/wheat-free products
maintaining the shelf space for treats 19
even whilst incomes are squeezed. A gluten-/wheat-free product being more 26
Frozen bake-at-home bakery products sustainable than a standard equivalent would 60
and premium sweet treats hold prompt me to buy it 14
potential here, given considerable
I would like more help on how to cook gluten- 26
interest in these amongst category 57
/wheat-free dishes
buyers. 14

A product that claims to be low in gluten would 25

60
appeal to me 12

Frozen bake-at-home gluten-/wheat-free bakery 23

57
products appeal to me 11

I have entertained guests at my home who follow 22

52
a gluten-/wheat-free diet in the last 6 months 11

Premium options of gluten-/wheat-free products 21

53
appeal to me 9

All Buyers of gluten-/wheat-free foods Non-buyers of gluten-/wheat-free foods

Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+; *546 internet users aged 16+ who have bought gluten-/wheat-free
products in the last six months
* Full statement reads: Money concerns would make me prioritise buying gluten-/wheat-free treats (cake,
biscuits) over gluten-/wheat-free essentials (eg pasta, bread)
Source: Kantar Profiles/Mintel, February 2023

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Attitudes towards Gluten-/Wheat-Free Food, UK - 2023 7

Significant opportunities exist FIGURE 8: FACTORS THAT WOULD ENCOURAGE PURCHASE OF

for mainstream brand extensions GLUTEN-/WHEAT-FREE FOODS, BY BUYERS AND NON-BUYERS, 2023
and collaborations; sustainable
credentials will be pertinent long “Which of these factors would most encourage you to buy/buy more glu-
term ten-/wheat-free foods? Please select up to 3.”

Some 22% of those who buy gluten-/ %

wheat-free foods say that being 35
Low price 43
made by a mainstream brand would 32
encourage them to buy more of these.
Closely linked to this, 32% of people As healthy as its standard equivalent
18
28
would find a gluten-/wheat-free 14
product collaboration between a
A functional health claim (eg supports 17
mainstream brand and a specialist 26
digestive health)
brand appealing. Collaborations are 14
mutually beneficial: for example, linking 12
Sustainable packaging (eg plastic-free,
with a mainstream brand to tap into the recyclable)
23
8
awareness it enjoys in the wider retail
market enables specialist brands to Made by a mainstream brand (eg McVitie's, 11
boost their visibility. 22
Warburtons) 7

A gluten-/wheat-free product being 10

Recommendations (eg online reviews) 20
more sustainable than a standard 7
equivalent would prompt 26% of
10
people to buy it, rising to 60% of those On-pack information about the role of
19
different ingredients
who buy gluten-/wheat-free foods. 7
Spotlighting where the products 9
use ingredients with stronger green On-pack information about how it was made 18
6
credentials than wheat, such as
chickpeas, can win favour. Made by a specialist gluten-/wheat-free brand 8
16
(eg Schär, Genius) 4

39
None of these 7
51

All Buyers of gluten-/wheat-free foods Non-buyers of gluten-/wheat-free foods

Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+

Source: Kantar Profiles/Mintel, February 2023

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Attitudes towards Gluten-/Wheat-Free Food, UK - 2023
A quarter view gluten-/wheat-free
products as too processed
One in four (26%) people agree that
gluten-/wheat-free products are too
processed. This rises to 41% of category
buyers, suggesting that brands that are
able to portray a more natural image
stand to win over a sizeable group of
current buyers. For gluten-/wheat-free
products with a short list of ingredients,
prioritising this in on-pack messaging is
pertinent.
 Previous
8
FIGURE 9: ATTITUDES TOWARDS GLUTEN-/WHEAT-FREE FOODS, BY
BUYERS AND NON-BUYERS, 2023
“Do you agree or disagree with the following statements?”
%
A gluten-/wheat-free product collaboration
32
between a mainstream brand (eg
62
Warburtons, Nairn’s) and specialist brand
21
(eg Schär, Genius) would be appealing
It's easy to find products (eg snacks, meat 27
products) suitable for gluten-/wheat-free 46
diets outside the free-from section 19
26
Gluten-/wheat-free products are too
41
processed
20
Solely gluten-/wheat-free products are 21
more appealing than those also free from 47
other allergens (eg egg, dairy) 11
All
Buyers of gluten-/wheat-free foods
Non-buyers of gluten-/wheat-free foods
Base: 2,000 internet users aged 16+
Source: Kantar Profiles/Mintel, February 2023
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