Navigating the Syrian Conflict: A Comprehensive Overview

The Syrian conflict has been a complex and enduring crisis that has garnered global attention for over
a decade. The multifaceted nature of the conflict, with its roots deeply embedded in historical,
political, and socio-economic factors, has left a lasting impact on the region and its people.

Understanding the Syrian Conflict

The origins of the Syrian conflict can be traced back to the Arab Spring in 2011 when peaceful
protests demanding political reforms erupted across the Middle East, including Syria. However, the
situation quickly escalated into a full-scale civil war, involving various factions with divergent
interests and allegiances.

Key Players and Dynamics

As the conflict unfolded, it attracted the involvement of regional and international powers, each
supporting different factions. The Syrian government, led by President Bashar al-Assad, faced
opposition from rebel groups with varying ideologies. Additionally, extremist groups such as ISIS
emerged, further complicating the landscape.

Humanitarian Crisis and Refugee Crisis

The conflict has led to one of the most significant humanitarian crises of our time. Millions of
Syrians have been displaced, both internally and externally, seeking refuge in neighboring countries
and beyond. The strain on resources, coupled with the destruction of infrastructure, has created dire
living conditions for many.

International Response and Peace Efforts

The international community has grappled with finding a resolution to the Syrian conflict. Efforts by
organizations like the United Nations have aimed at brokering peace, but the complexity of the
situation and the diverse array of interests involved have posed significant challenges.

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Civilian involvement in the war and the perception of civilians as legitimate military targets by both
the regime and non-regime actors sustains fear, fuels recruitment into armed and extremist groups,
and exacerbates the already immense refugee crisis 32. A violent extremist group known as the
Islamic State (IS) has, until recently, grown in influence throughout the conflict. The drought pushed
a million people into food insecurity. Opposition supporters began to take up arms, initially in self-
defence and then to fight government forces for control of towns and cities 17. Initially, long-
standing lack of freedoms and economic hardship fuelled rising resentment toward the government
10. This has been largely due to lack of a cohesive moderate opposition and the strong influence of
Islamist movements 28. Further chemical attacks continued to be made through 2015-2017, by the
government forces and by the Islamic State. The war has created a humanitarian crisis of immense
proportions, with 13.5 million people requiring humanitarian assistance and with over half the
population displaced from their homes 6. In-fighting and disorder has led to public distrust of the
opposition’s capacity to lead the country and has even contributed to the rising support for Islamist
groups that have greater internal cohesion 33. Here Are Answers to 7 Key Questions About the
Conflict”, Washington Post, 7 April, available at. Nearly seven years after a peaceful uprising against
President Bashar al-Assad descended the country into civil war, the Syrian conflict is sadly as
relevant as ever. The talks in Astana have had slightly more success. The Syrian President Bashar al-
Assad has lost control of large portions of the country, as well as credibility due to the deliberate
slaughter of civilians and the use of chemical weapons 4. Meanwhile, the pro-Assad coalition has
demonstrated more unity and has made more significant investments 34. The influence of non-state
extremist groups makes it very difficult to reach a negotiated solution. A significant portion of the
civilians killed in Syria have been children (44). Although the protests that started in 2011 were, for
the most part, non-sectarian, clear sectarian and ethnic divisions emerged as a result of armed
conflict 12. Within the scope of this conflict map it has only been possible to provide a very surface-
level analysis of the history, context, parties, issues and dynamics at this point in time. Internal
drivers of conflict may remain unresolved in the face of outside intervention, which is why a
comprehensive understanding is vital to achieving peace 42. According to a comprehensive conflict
analysis by the ARK Group, “the instrumentalisation of sectarian, religious, and ethnic identities has
become a centrepiece of current conflict dynamics” 30. All of this contributed to urban
unemployment and social unrest 15. Prospect for resolution may arise from utilising and
empowering these local grassroots organisations. Syria has a large population of civil society
organisations within the opposition, including activists and professionals who deliver services and
humanitarian aid with the help of international aid organisations 41. Turkey’s most pressing concern
is the potential for an autonomous Kurdish entity near the Turkish border 26. Addressing the level of
violence against civilians needs to be first priority. Sunni majority resentment of Hafez al-Assad’s
oppressive rule eventually led to the Islamist uprising in 1978, which ended with the Hama massacre
of 1982 11. However, the opposition was decentralised and had no recognised leaders, which soon
enough led to a lack of coherence. In July of the same year defectors from the military formed the
Free Syrian Army, an anti-government rebel group. One such approach is to map out a conflict and
current responses to it and to analyse future policy options 1.
Although the protests that started in 2011 were, for the most part, non-sectarian, clear sectarian and
ethnic divisions emerged as a result of armed conflict 12. However, the opposition was decentralised
and had no recognised leaders, which soon enough led to a lack of coherence. Meanwhile, the pro-
Assad coalition has demonstrated more unity and has made more significant investments 34.
Turkey’s most pressing concern is the potential for an autonomous Kurdish entity near the Turkish
border 26. Their uncompromising and existential threat makes it extremely unlikely for them to be
included at the negotiating table, therefore increasing the likelihood that they will act as spoilers in
the peace process 39. In July of the same year defectors from the military formed the Free Syrian
Army, an anti-government rebel group. From 2006 to 2011, Syria experienced a severe drought that
contributed to agricultural failures, to population displacement and mass migration from the rural
areas to the cities. Syria, too, erupted in peaceful protests that March, but the government responded
with a brutal crackdown on demonstrators. In this article of the blog series on conflict mapping I
will be using the framework to understand and analyse the Syrian civil war. Further chemical attacks
continued to be made through 2015-2017, by the government forces and by the Islamic State. In
2016 the war was the largest source of displacement in the world 7. From this point on Syria began
its rapid descent into civil war 16. A violent extremist group known as the Islamic State (IS) has,
until recently, grown in influence throughout the conflict. The war has created a humanitarian crisis
of immense proportions, with 13.5 million people requiring humanitarian assistance and with over
half the population displaced from their homes 6. Internal drivers of conflict may remain unresolved
in the face of outside intervention, which is why a comprehensive understanding is vital to achieving
peace 42. The agreement has already been arguably undermined, with reports of pro-regime forces
conducting airstrikes in the zones 38. The opposition has therefore struggled to generate a country-
wide organised structure that would enjoy local and international legitimacy 23. All of this
contributed to urban unemployment and social unrest 15. Syria has a large population of civil
society organisations within the opposition, including activists and professionals who deliver services
and humanitarian aid with the help of international aid organisations 41. Foreign intervention has
protracted the conflict by extending the finite capabilities of the direct actors, leading to a proxy war
unlikely to end in decisive victory for one side over the other 35. This is partly due to sectarian and
extreme ideologies of some opposition groups 5. Disparate foreign intervention is another important
conflict dynamic. Civilian involvement in the war and the perception of civilians as legitimate
military targets by both the regime and non-regime actors sustains fear, fuels recruitment into armed
and extremist groups, and exacerbates the already immense refugee crisis 32. The talks in Astana
have had slightly more success. A decade of economic stagnation and challenges associated with
climate variability and drought are factors that should not be overlooked because they played an
important role in the deterioration of the country’s economic situation 14. In-fighting and disorder
has led to public distrust of the opposition’s capacity to lead the country and has even contributed to
the rising support for Islamist groups that have greater internal cohesion 33. Initially, long-standing
lack of freedoms and economic hardship fuelled rising resentment toward the government 10. After
the pro-democracy protests erupted in March 2011, the Syrian government responded by killing and
imprisoning hundreds of protesters. Opposition supporters began to take up arms, initially in self-
defence and then to fight government forces for control of towns and cities 17. I also provided an
overview of how the peace process has progressed thus far, and an analysis of the potential for future
resolution.
Syria has a large population of civil society organisations within the opposition, including activists
and professionals who deliver services and humanitarian aid with the help of international aid
organisations 41. Turkey’s most pressing concern is the potential for an autonomous Kurdish entity
near the Turkish border 26. I also provided an overview of how the peace process has progressed
thus far, and an analysis of the potential for future resolution. Syria, too, erupted in peaceful protests
that March, but the government responded with a brutal crackdown on demonstrators. As the
conflict escalated the US faced pressure to intervene, but its support for the opposition has been
hesitant and inconsistent. This was a sign of progress, but questions loom over its implementation.
The fate of President Assad and a transitional government have been major sticking points between
the Syrian government and opposition groups 36, and negotiations have been repeatedly suspended
due to disagreements over the priority of humanitarian issues. One such approach is to map out a
conflict and current responses to it and to analyse future policy options 1. Prospect for resolution
may arise from utilising and empowering these local grassroots organisations. The civilian and
military opposition has not formed into a credible movement with a unified approach. The war has
created a humanitarian crisis of immense proportions, with 13.5 million people requiring
humanitarian assistance and with over half the population displaced from their homes 6. The Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad has lost control of large portions of the country, as well as credibility due
to the deliberate slaughter of civilians and the use of chemical weapons 4. From this point on Syria
began its rapid descent into civil war 16. Disparate foreign intervention is another important conflict
dynamic. In this article of the blog series on conflict mapping I will be using the framework to
understand and analyse the Syrian civil war. However, the opposition was decentralised and had no
recognised leaders, which soon enough led to a lack of coherence. Further chemical attacks
continued to be made through 2015-2017, by the government forces and by the Islamic State. The
conflict has also been characterized by a high degree of international involvement 22. Their
uncompromising and existential threat makes it extremely unlikely for them to be included at the
negotiating table, therefore increasing the likelihood that they will act as spoilers in the peace process
39. The agreement has already been arguably undermined, with reports of pro-regime forces
conducting airstrikes in the zones 38. There are clear sectarian overtones, with tension between
Syria’s Sunni majority and the President’s Shia Alawite sect. The talks in Astana have had slightly
more success. In addition to reducing human suffering and impacting the refugee crisis, this would
go some way toward reducing the appeal of extremist groups, and starting to build trust in the
potential for a peaceful resolution 40. Solutions to local issues must be devised and revised based on
a thorough understanding of the current situation, of the conflict drivers and their interplay with
regional and international dynamics, and an approach based on research and evidence. Nearly seven
years after a peaceful uprising against President Bashar al-Assad descended the country into civil
war, the Syrian conflict is sadly as relevant as ever. The Blog features interviews with guest speakers,
current research, Centre news and events. In-fighting and disorder has led to public distrust of the
opposition’s capacity to lead the country and has even contributed to the rising support for Islamist
groups that have greater internal cohesion 33. Please upgrade your browser to improve your
experience. Internal drivers of conflict may remain unresolved in the face of outside intervention,
which is why a comprehensive understanding is vital to achieving peace 42.
Syria, too, erupted in peaceful protests that March, but the government responded with a brutal
crackdown on demonstrators. The influence of non-state extremist groups makes it very difficult to
reach a negotiated solution. The talks in Astana have had slightly more success. Initially, long-
standing lack of freedoms and economic hardship fuelled rising resentment toward the government
10. Meanwhile, the pro-Assad coalition has demonstrated more unity and has made more significant
investments 34. From 2006 to 2011, Syria experienced a severe drought that contributed to
agricultural failures, to population displacement and mass migration from the rural areas to the cities.
Addressing the level of violence against civilians needs to be first priority. The civilian and military
opposition has not formed into a credible movement with a unified approach. Internal drivers of
conflict may remain unresolved in the face of outside intervention, which is why a comprehensive
understanding is vital to achieving peace 42. This is partly due to sectarian and extreme ideologies of
some opposition groups 5. The fate of President Assad and a transitional government have been
major sticking points between the Syrian government and opposition groups 36, and negotiations
have been repeatedly suspended due to disagreements over the priority of humanitarian issues.
Disparate foreign intervention is another important conflict dynamic. The Assads belong to the Shia
Alawite minority, and Alawites have dominated high-ranking positions in the military and
government since 1970. Opposition supporters began to take up arms, initially in self-defence and
then to fight government forces for control of towns and cities 17. Prospect for resolution may arise
from utilising and empowering these local grassroots organisations. A significant portion of the
civilians killed in Syria have been children (44). All of this contributed to urban unemployment and
social unrest 15. The drought pushed a million people into food insecurity. In this article of the blog
series on conflict mapping I will be using the framework to understand and analyse the Syrian civil
war. Nearly seven years after a peaceful uprising against President Bashar al-Assad descended the
country into civil war, the Syrian conflict is sadly as relevant as ever. The conflict has also been
characterized by a high degree of international involvement 22. A decade of economic stagnation
and challenges associated with climate variability and drought are factors that should not be
overlooked because they played an important role in the deterioration of the country’s economic
situation 14. As the conflict escalated the US faced pressure to intervene, but its support for the
opposition has been hesitant and inconsistent. The agreement has already been arguably undermined,
with reports of pro-regime forces conducting airstrikes in the zones 38. The opposition has therefore
struggled to generate a country-wide organised structure that would enjoy local and international
legitimacy 23. The Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has lost control of large portions of the country,
as well as credibility due to the deliberate slaughter of civilians and the use of chemical weapons 4.
Mapping a conflict can constitute a first step on the road to designing and implementing an effective
peacebuilding strategy 2. Although the protests that started in 2011 were, for the most part, non-
sectarian, clear sectarian and ethnic divisions emerged as a result of armed conflict 12. Turkey’s most
pressing concern is the potential for an autonomous Kurdish entity near the Turkish border 26.
According to a comprehensive conflict analysis by the ARK Group, “the instrumentalisation of
sectarian, religious, and ethnic identities has become a centrepiece of current conflict dynamics” 30.
A significant portion of the civilians killed in Syria have been children (44). Addressing the level of
violence against civilians needs to be first priority. Turkey’s most pressing concern is the potential for
an autonomous Kurdish entity near the Turkish border 26. Their uncompromising and existential
threat makes it extremely unlikely for them to be included at the negotiating table, therefore
increasing the likelihood that they will act as spoilers in the peace process 39. Nearly seven years
after a peaceful uprising against President Bashar al-Assad descended the country into civil war, the
Syrian conflict is sadly as relevant as ever. The anti-regime international coalition has been poorly
coordinated due to diverging interests and motivations. In 2016 the war was the largest source of
displacement in the world 7. Solutions to local issues must be devised and revised based on a
thorough understanding of the current situation, of the conflict drivers and their interplay with
regional and international dynamics, and an approach based on research and evidence. Sunni
majority resentment of Hafez al-Assad’s oppressive rule eventually led to the Islamist uprising in
1978, which ended with the Hama massacre of 1982 11. The drought pushed a million people into
food insecurity. All of this contributed to urban unemployment and social unrest 15. According to a
comprehensive conflict analysis by the ARK Group, “the instrumentalisation of sectarian, religious,
and ethnic identities has become a centrepiece of current conflict dynamics” 30. One such approach
is to map out a conflict and current responses to it and to analyse future policy options 1. Other
important dynamics that have contributed to the escalation of violence, spiralling and polarization
include the level of violence against civilians; varying foreign intervention; fragmented opposition;
and the presence and influence of extremism 31. Although the protests that started in 2011 were, for
the most part, non-sectarian, clear sectarian and ethnic divisions emerged as a result of armed
conflict 12. After the pro-democracy protests erupted in March 2011, the Syrian government
responded by killing and imprisoning hundreds of protesters. There are clear sectarian overtones,
with tension between Syria’s Sunni majority and the President’s Shia Alawite sect. Meanwhile, the
pro-Assad coalition has demonstrated more unity and has made more significant investments 34.
Here Are Answers to 7 Key Questions About the Conflict”, Washington Post, 7 April, available at.
Please upgrade your browser to improve your experience. Internal drivers of conflict may remain
unresolved in the face of outside intervention, which is why a comprehensive understanding is vital
to achieving peace 42. Disparate foreign intervention is another important conflict dynamic. Initially,
long-standing lack of freedoms and economic hardship fuelled rising resentment toward the
government 10. This was a sign of progress, but questions loom over its implementation. A decade of
economic stagnation and challenges associated with climate variability and drought are factors that
should not be overlooked because they played an important role in the deterioration of the country’s
economic situation 14. The talks in Astana have had slightly more success. In this article of the blog
series on conflict mapping I will be using the framework to understand and analyse the Syrian civil
war. From 2006 to 2011, Syria experienced a severe drought that contributed to agricultural failures,
to population displacement and mass migration from the rural areas to the cities. In July of the same
year defectors from the military formed the Free Syrian Army, an anti-government rebel group.
Further chemical attacks continued to be made through 2015-2017, by the government forces and by
the Islamic State. All of this contributed to urban unemployment and social unrest 15. This was a
sign of progress, but questions loom over its implementation. The Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
has lost control of large portions of the country, as well as credibility due to the deliberate slaughter
of civilians and the use of chemical weapons 4. The influence of non-state extremist groups makes it
very difficult to reach a negotiated solution. Nearly seven years after a peaceful uprising against
President Bashar al-Assad descended the country into civil war, the Syrian conflict is sadly as
relevant as ever. Solutions to local issues must be devised and revised based on a thorough
understanding of the current situation, of the conflict drivers and their interplay with regional and
international dynamics, and an approach based on research and evidence. According to a
comprehensive conflict analysis by the ARK Group, “the instrumentalisation of sectarian, religious,
and ethnic identities has become a centrepiece of current conflict dynamics” 30. From 2006 to 2011,
Syria experienced a severe drought that contributed to agricultural failures, to population
displacement and mass migration from the rural areas to the cities. After the pro-democracy protests
erupted in March 2011, the Syrian government responded by killing and imprisoning hundreds of
protesters. A violent extremist group known as the Islamic State (IS) has, until recently, grown in
influence throughout the conflict. The drought pushed a million people into food insecurity. There
are clear sectarian overtones, with tension between Syria’s Sunni majority and the President’s Shia
Alawite sect. The Assads belong to the Shia Alawite minority, and Alawites have dominated high-
ranking positions in the military and government since 1970. The civilian and military opposition has
not formed into a credible movement with a unified approach. Their uncompromising and existential
threat makes it extremely unlikely for them to be included at the negotiating table, therefore
increasing the likelihood that they will act as spoilers in the peace process 39. Disparate foreign
intervention is another important conflict dynamic. Initially, long-standing lack of freedoms and
economic hardship fuelled rising resentment toward the government 10. Foreign intervention has
protracted the conflict by extending the finite capabilities of the direct actors, leading to a proxy war
unlikely to end in decisive victory for one side over the other 35. This has been largely due to lack of
a cohesive moderate opposition and the strong influence of Islamist movements 28. A significant
portion of the civilians killed in Syria have been children (44). One such approach is to map out a
conflict and current responses to it and to analyse future policy options 1. Other important dynamics
that have contributed to the escalation of violence, spiralling and polarization include the level of
violence against civilians; varying foreign intervention; fragmented opposition; and the presence and
influence of extremism 31. In this article of the blog series on conflict mapping I will be using the
framework to understand and analyse the Syrian civil war. A decade of economic stagnation and
challenges associated with climate variability and drought are factors that should not be overlooked
because they played an important role in the deterioration of the country’s economic situation 14.
The fate of President Assad and a transitional government have been major sticking points between
the Syrian government and opposition groups 36, and negotiations have been repeatedly suspended
due to disagreements over the priority of humanitarian issues. The opposition has therefore struggled
to generate a country-wide organised structure that would enjoy local and international legitimacy 23.
The talks in Astana have had slightly more success. In-fighting and disorder has led to public distrust
of the opposition’s capacity to lead the country and has even contributed to the rising support for
Islamist groups that have greater internal cohesion 33. Syria has a large population of civil society
organisations within the opposition, including activists and professionals who deliver services and
humanitarian aid with the help of international aid organisations 41.