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Pek 2011
Pek 2011
Multivariate Behavioral
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Sensitivity Analysis in
Structural Equation Models:
Cases and Their Influence
a a
Jolynn Pek & Robert C. MacCallum
a
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Published online: 19 Apr 2011.
To cite this article: Jolynn Pek & Robert C. MacCallum (2011) Sensitivity Analysis
in Structural Equation Models: Cases and Their Influence, Multivariate Behavioral
Research, 46:2, 202-228, DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2011.561068
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Multivariate Behavioral Research, 46:202–228, 2011
Copyright © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
ISSN: 0027-3171 print/1532-7906 online
DOI: 10.1080/00273171.2011.561068
Sensitivity Analysis in
Structural Equation Models:
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202
INFLUENTIAL CASES IN SEM 203
Tanaka, Watadani, & Moon, 1991), the application of such diagnostics in SEM
has received limited attention in practice. The purpose of this article is to present
several measures of case influence adapted for SEM along with an approach for
presenting and evaluating findings obtained when such measures are computed
in empirical data. The measures we employ are adapted from regression analysis
and from literature on assessing case influence in the context of fitting falsifiable
models. We apply these methods in two empirical examples and we present
results that reveal several phenomena that may aid in model evaluation.
We highlight three key issues surrounding the diagnostic use and interpre-
tation of case influence measures in SEM. First, cases may exert influence
on different aspects of results, as revealed by the use of different types of
case influence measures. In particular, cases may independently exert influence
on model fit and/or parameter estimates, indicating the necessity of assessing
case influence using more than a single measure. Focus is thus placed on how
each measure of case influence uniquely adds to our understanding of case
characteristics and the impact these cases have on study results.
Second, as SEM generally involve overidentified models, cases may exert
influence on overall model fit. Distinctly different influential cases can substan-
tially improve or worsen model fit, allowing the investigator to identify and
examine what we refer to for simplicity as good and bad cases. Removing
good cases from the sample worsens model fit whereas removing bad cases
improves model fit. The identification of good and bad cases does not necessarily
mandate retention of the former and removal of the latter. In our empirical
examples, we recommend different approaches to addressing the presence of
these types of influential cases based on features of the case, the sample it
belongs to, and the models examined. In addition, we discuss the potential
value for using information about case influence on model fit as a means of
determining possible causes of poor model fit. We propose that such results can
potentially help to distinguish between instances where poor fit is caused by
poor model specification versus those where the cause may be associated with
the presence of a number of especially “bad” cases.
Third, the subtle but important distinction between outliers and influential
cases is highlighted. Although outliers often have considerable influence on
INFLUENTIAL CASES IN SEM 205
results of analyses, our results show that influence and outlying status are not
nearly perfectly associated. Outliers are not necessarily highly influential, and
influential cases are not necessarily outliers. As a result, we emphasize that
these issues should be treated separately in the application of SEM and that a
screening process involving the identification and elimination of outliers is not
sufficient to address the possible impact of highly influential cases.
Finally, we conclude with recommendations and a discussion regarding the
practical use of case influence measures in SEM. Our overall goal is that the
methods, findings, and recommendations we offer will assist users of SEM in
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function:
where S and † are the p p sample and model implied population covariance
matrices, respectively. Rescaling the ML discrepancy function estimate FOML by
.N 1/ obtains the ¦2 test statistic under the Wishart distribution (Browne &
Arminger, 1995). The test statistic
¦2 D .N 1/FOML (3)
follows the ¦2 distribution with p.p C 1/=2 k degrees of freedom under the
null hypothesis that the model implied covariance matrix is no different from
the population covariance matrix. Note that k is the total number of parameters
estimated under the specified model. A test of this null hypothesis is often called
the test of perfect fit. Most measures evaluating overall model fit are based on
either the discrepancy function value in Equation (2) or the test statistic in
Equation (3). Holding the model constant, case influence on overall model fit
may be quantified by change in the test statistic
where ¦2 and ¦2.i / are the test statistics obtained from the original and delete i
samples. Similar to the interpretation of LDi , but reversed in direction, positive
values on ¦2i suggest improved model fit and negative values on ¦2i indicate
poorer model fit when case i is removed. Indeed, it may be shown that LDi is
analogous to ¦2i as follows:
¦2i D .N 1/FOML .N O
2/FOML.i / D F .™/ .N O
2/ŒF .™/ F .™O .i //;
(5)
Parameter Estimates
Cases may also be examined for their influence on parameter estimates where a
comparison is made between estimates obtained from the original and delete i
samples. Such a comparison assesses the difference between parameter estimates
based on the original and reduced samples. We describe here some measures of
case influence on parameter estimates parallel to the DFBETAS and Cook’s
Distance measures commonly used in regression analysis (Belsley, Kuh, &
Welsch, 1980; Cohen, Cohen, West, & Aiken, 2003; Cook & Weisberg, 1982).
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™O j ™O j.i /
™O j i D ; (7)
O ™O j.i / / 12
ŒVAR.
where ™Oj and ™O j.i / denote the estimates of the j th parameter obtained from
the full sample and delete i samples. The denominator of Equation (7), which
standardizes the expression, is the standard error of the j th parameter obtained
from the sample excluding case i . Analogous to DFBETAS in regression, positive
values of ™O j i indicate that excluding case i caused a smaller estimate of ™O j
and negative values of ™O j i the converse. The expression in Equation (6) is a
squared scalar version of Equation (7):
Outlying Status
Cases may also be examined for outlying status, which is distinct from influential
status. A case is termed an outlier when it is observed to be aberrant compared
with other observations to the point of raising concerns that it belongs to a
different population (Hawkins, 1980; Rasmussen, 1988). Outlier detection is an
important task in data analysis in SEM as extant work confirms that outliers
can potentially create Heywood cases or improper solutions (Bollen, 1987). A
small proportion of outliers in a sample can substantially distort results under
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where jS.i /j and jSj are the determinants of the p p sample covariance matrix
after omitting case i and using the complete sample, respectively. COVRATIO
values close to unity may be taken to indicate that the two covariance matrices
are not substantially different.
A comparable measure of a case’s impact on the sample covariance ma-
trix may be developed using the ML discrepancy function in Equation (2).
INFLUENTIAL CASES IN SEM 209
In its conventional usage this function measures the discrepancy between the
sample covariance matrix and the implied population covariance matrix. We
have explored the possibility of using this function to measure instead the
difference between the sample covariance matrix S based on the full sample
and a covariance matrix S.i / based on the deletion of case i from the sample:
where Si is the change in the sample covariance matrix S brought about by
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the removal of case i . Cases with Si values close to zero indicate that their
removal from the sample does not bring about large changes in the sample
covariance matrix.
Analytical relationships among MD, COVRATIO, and Si , along with results
from empirical applications, confirm that all three measures of outlying status
are almost perfectly correlated. In particular, MD is virtually perfectly negatively
correlated with COVRATIO and almost perfectly positively correlated with Si .
As COVRATIO and Si do not significantly add to our study of case influence
and outlying status, they are not examined further in this article.
common factor model to six psychological tests (Holzinger & Swineford, 1939)
and the second example fits a mediation model among three latent variables on
country-level data (Bollen, 1989). All measures of case influence and outlying
status were computed exactly. Exact computations of measures of influence
involve the systematic task of obtaining N sets of delete i sample results and
comparing them with results based on the original sample.1 Outlying status
is computed exactly from Equation (9), which is expressed in closed form.
The following sections provide more detail on the examples and illustrate the
diagnostic use of the different case influence measures.
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1 For these illustrations, computation of influence measures was carried out using a combination
of R code, Mplus batch runs, and SAS code. Therefore, it is not feasible at this point to provide
generally useful code to interested researchers. As we develop and refine software to implement
the methods illustrated in this article, we will provide online and e-mail support to interested users.
Jolynn Pek may be contacted and we will provide our current software implementation for use in
applied research. In the future, we may be able to provide user-friendly code, or SEM software
developers might consider providing case influence measures in commercial software if there is
sufficient interest.
INFLUENTIAL CASES IN SEM 211
6 7
4 0 œ5;2 5
0 œ6;2
1:0
‰A D and ‚ A D diagŒ™1 ; ™2 ; ™3 ; ™4 ; ™5 ; ™6 :
§2;1 1:0
The first and second factors correspond to the visual perception and verbal
factors, respectively. Model B is a restricted two-factor model with independent
factors where
2 3
œ1;1 0
6œ2;1 0 7
6 7
6œ3;1 0 7
ƒB D 6 6 7
6 0 œ4;2 7
7
4 0 œ5;2 5
0 œ6;2
1:0 0
‰B D and ‚ B D diagŒ™1 ; ™2 ; ™3 ; ™4 ; ™5 ; ™6 :
0 1:0
Constraining §2;1 D 0 in Model A obtains Model B, implying that the models are
nested and that Model A necessarily fits the data better than Model B. To amplify
the effect of outliers and influential cases for purposes of this demonstration
and to simplify the results, the original sample of No D 301 was reduced to
N D 100 by retaining the 10 cases with the largest MD values and randomly
drawing 90 cases falling below the 75th percentile of MD. Standard scores on
the six tests and MD for these 10 cases (numbered 91 to 100) from the reduced
sample are presented in Table 1. Based on a nominal error rate of ’ D 0:05, a
¦2 .6/ distribution is associated with a critical value of 12.592 and 9 of the 10
cases in Table 1 would be flagged as potential outliers because their MD values
exceed this threshold. Table 2 presents model estimates and model fit information
obtained from the unperturbed sample .N D 100/. According to the test of
perfect fit, Comparative Fit Index (CFI; Bentler, 1990), Tucker-Lewis Index
(TLI; Tucker & Lewis, 1973), and Root Mean Square Error of Approximation
212 PEK AND MACCALLUM
TABLE 1
Z Scores and Mahalanobis Distances (MD) for the 10 Cases With Largest MD
Case y1 y2 y3 y4 y5 y6 MDi
(RMSEA; Browne & Cudeck, 1993; Steiger & Lind, 1980), Model A fits the
data well but not Model B.
Measures of influence and outlying status are typically depicted using index
or casewise plots where case numbers are presented on the abscissa and values of
the measure of influence or outlying status are presented on the ordinate. Within
each index plot, cases with extreme values are typically visually identified as
influential cases or outliers by their departure from the general level and range
of points. Figure 1 presents an index plot of Mahalanobis Distance (MD) that
conveys information on cases’ outlying status. The lower horizontal reference
line marks the expected value of a ¦2 .6/ distribution and the higher horizontal
reference line marks the critical value of ¦20:95 .6/ D 12:592; all nine points
lying above the latter horizontal line may be considered multivariate outliers.
Additionally, the vertical reference line distinguishes the potential outliers, to
the right, from the remaining sample. Observing that a majority of MD values
fall below the expected value is consistent with the positive skew of the ¦2
distribution. From Table 1 and Figure 1, Case 92 has the largest MD followed
by Cases 97 and 93, suggesting that these cases are potential outliers. Stated
differently, removing these cases substantially changes the sample covariance
matrix S.
Figure 2 presents index plots of case influence on overall model fit .¦2 / for
Models A and B. The removal of Case 97 is associated with the largest absolute
change in the ¦2 test statistic. The influence of Case 97 on overall model fit
is consistent across the two models in that ¦2 is negative (¦2A D 3:448
and ¦2B D 4:363) meaning that removing Case 97 worsens the fit of Models
A and B. However, case influence on overall model fit may not operate in the
same direction across models, as illustrated by Case 92. Removing Case 92
improved overall fit in Model A .¦2A D 1:326/ but worsened overall fit in
INFLUENTIAL CASES IN SEM 213
TABLE 2
Parameter Estimates and Model Fit Information
for Models A and B (N D 100)
Model A Model B
FIGURE 1 Index plot for Mahalanobis Distance. Note. Cases above the higher horizontal
reference line may be regarded as potential multivariate outliers.
FIGURE 2 Case influence on overall model fit .¦2 /. Note. k D number of parameters
estimated. Cases with large Mahalanobis Distances fall to the right of the vertical dotted
reference line. Cases above and below the horizontal reference line are bad and good cases,
respectively.
prudent next step would be to verify the integrity of these influential cases’ data
given their impact on overall model fit. If there were no errors in the data, a
decision may be made to include/exclude these cases from the sample when
estimating models of interest. There may also be substantive value in finding an
explanation behind Case 92’s interesting pattern of test scores.
We now turn to results for measures of influence on parameter estimates.
Index plots for generalized Cook’s Distance (gCD), depicting case influence on
sets of parameter estimates, for Models A and B are presented in Figure 3. In this
figure gray open circles represent influence on the full set of parameter estimates,
and black dots represent influence on a subset of parameters consisting of only
216 PEK AND MACCALLUM
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factor loadings. The potential outliers, located to the right of the reference line,
tend to exhibit more influence on the examined sets of parameter estimates
regardless of model. In Model A, Case 92 had the largest influence on both sets
of parameter estimates, suggesting that Case 92 may be inconsistent with the
structure imposed by Model A. In Model B, where the correlation between the
factors was constrained to zero, Case 93 exerted the largest influence on the
full set of parameter estimates whereas Case 92 had the largest influence on the
factor loading estimates, implying that Case 92 had little impact on the residual
variances. Case 97 had a large impact on the k estimates in Model B but a
relatively small impact on the l factor loadings, suggesting that the influence
Case 97 has on parameter estimates in Model B concerns the residual variances.
INFLUENTIAL CASES IN SEM 217
Beyond case influence on overall model fit, gCD provides summary information
that communicates cases’ consistency with the hypothesized model in terms of
their influence on some specific set of parameter estimates.
Case influence on a set of parameter estimates may be examined across
models with the recommendation that the number of parameters used to compute
gCD is held constant. The mean and variance of gCD are positively associ-
ated with the number of parameter estimates assessed as gCD asymptotically
follows an F .k; N k/ distribution. If we compared gCD on the complete
set of parameter estimates between Models A and B (depicted by the gray
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FIGURE 4 Case influence on the factor correlation estimate § O 2;1 in Model A. Note. Cases
with large Mahalanobis Distances fall to the right of the vertical dotted reference line.
Removing cases above/below the horizontal reference line led to smaller/larger estimates of
§2;1 .
FIGURE 5 Industrialization .˜1 / and democracy (˜2 and ˜3 ) mediation model for
developing countries, 1960 to 1965 .N D 75/.
FIGURE 6 Index plot of Mahalanobis Distance. Note. Cases above the horizontal reference
line may be regarded as potential multivariate outliers.
is 55.758, and the hypothesis of perfect fit is not rejected. Note, however, that
removing any case i with ¦2i 1:884 will lead to a significant test statistic
and rejection of the hypothesis of perfect fit. The nonzero horizontal reference
line in Figure 7 for Model D depicts this cutoff and identifies nine such cases.
For example, removing Case 45 results in ¦2.45/ D 58:549, p D :02929. Clearly,
the outcome of this test of fit of Model D is strongly affected by the presence
of this handful of “good” cases. Of course, this phenomenon could operate in
reverse, where the deletion of a single “bad” case could change the outcome of
such a test from rejection to non-rejection of perfect fit. Although not illustrated
in this article, cases may also potentially affect the outcomes of other tests of
model fit (e.g., the commonly used test of close fit) as well as tests of the
significance of key parameter estimates.
The potential outliers of Cases 45 and 68 (labeled by their case numbers)
in Figure 7 are good for Models C and D in that their removal is associated
with negative ¦2 , which translates to poorer model fit. Hence, removing these
potential outliers before fitting models as suggested by some (e.g., Tabachnick &
Fidell, 2001) may be detrimental to the modeling process. Interestingly, the most
influential case for Model C is not an outlier. Case 74 exerted the largest absolute
influence on overall fit for Model C .¦274 D 4:282/ but had a relatively
small MD estimate of MD74 D 10:868. Similarly, the most influential case for
222 PEK AND MACCALLUM
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FIGURE 7 Case influence on overall model fit .¦2 /. Note. k D number of parameters es-
timated. Numbered cases have significantly large Mahalanobis Distances. Cases above/below
the zero horizontal reference line are bad/good cases. Removing cases below the nonzero
horizontal reference line leads to rejection of the test of perfect fit.
INFLUENTIAL CASES IN SEM 223
Model D is not an outlier; Case 14 had ¦214 D 4:741 and MD14 D 15:783.
Therefore, influential cases are not necessarily outliers, suggesting that influence
and outlying status may not be nearly perfectly associated. However, outliers tend
to be influential and Cases 45 and 68, which are potential outliers based on MD,
exerted substantial influence on overall model fit for both models as shown in
Figure 7. Although most cases influenced overall model fit in the same direction
for the two models, Case 14 was a good case for Model D .¦214 D 4:741/
but had little to no impact for Model C .¦214 D 0:384/; after accounting for
the common data source for freedom of group opposition .y5; y9/ and elective
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nature and effectiveness of legislative body .y7; y11/, Case 14 was no longer
influential on overall model fit.
The study of case influence on parameter estimates not only identifies un-
usual cases but also communicates information on the stability of theoretically
important estimates. Because promoting the chance for a democratic political
system by industrialization is a key finding, robustness of the contemporaneous
effects of industrialization on democracy in 1960 .“O 2;1 / and 1965 .“O 3;1 / to case
influence are examined. As Model C significantly fits the data better than Model
D, only case influence on the direct effect .“O 3;1 / and indirect or mediation effect
.“O 2;1 “O 3;2 / in Model C are highlighted. The index plot in Figure 8 shows that
case influence on the direct effect of industrialization in 1960 on democracy in
FIGURE 8 Case influence on the direct effect “O 3;1 in Model C. Note. Numbered cases
have significantly large Mahalanobis Distances.
224 PEK AND MACCALLUM
1965 .“O 3;1 / for Model C ranged between 0.517 and 0.500. Under the delete-one
perturbation scheme, this direct effect estimate did not fluctuate beyond ˙ 0.600
standard units. Although Cases 45 and 68 were identified as potential outliers,
both had little influence on “O 3;1 . Since the standardized estimate based on the
original sample of “O 3;1 D 2:520, this important effect remained statistically
significant at ’ D 0:05. The study of case influence on “O 3;1 therefore confirms
that this key estimate is relatively robust to casewise deletion.
Case influence on the indirect effect of industrialization on democracy in
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1965, mediated by democracy in 1960, was assessed using the Sobel test statistic
(Sobel, 1982; Baron & Kenny, 1986) defined as
“O 2;1 “O 3;2
zD ; (13)
Œ.“O 3;2 /2 VAR. O “O 3;2 / 21
O “O 2;1 / C .“O 2;1 /2 VAR.
where the subscript .i / indicates that case i was excluded from the sample.
Note that this measure of case influence on the Sobel test is analogous to case
influence on a single parameter as defined in Equation (7). Positive/negative
values of zi indicate the direction and magnitude (in standard units) of change
in the Sobel test statistic caused by excluding case i . The significant mediation
effect obtained from the original sample, z D 3:570, p < :0001, was found to
be robust under the delete i perturbation scheme as 0:379 < zi < 0:265.
Although Cases 45 and 68 were identified as potential multivariate outliers,
they had little influence on the estimate of the indirect effect, indicating that
outliers may not be influential on certain aspects of model results. Given that
key parameter estimates for Model C are robust to casewise deletion and overall
model fit is good, Model C presents itself as a strong plausible model that closely
approximates the phenomena under study.
INFLUENTIAL CASES IN SEM 225
In this article we have presented and applied a number of measures of case influ-
ence adapted for SEM. Our results show the potential utility of such sensitivity
analysis of cases for assessing the quality of study results and for highlighting
and examining characteristics of key cases in the sample. At a basic level, this
process aids in establishing data integrity. Unusual cases due to coding or other
errors of execution (Barnett & Lewis, 1994) can be identified and corrected or
deleted, whereas valid but atypical cases may warrant further exploration.
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More important for present purposes, the careful assessment of case influence
may serve the critical purpose of helping the investigator to avoid drawing and
reporting conclusions that are strongly driven by one or a few highly influential
cases. The measures we have presented and the results from our demonstrations
support this perspective and provide validation of several points emphasized
early in this article. These include, first, the need to use multiple measures
of case influence because cases may influence difference aspects of results,
especially model fit and estimates of key parameters. Cases that exert little or
no influence on one aspect may show a strong influence on another aspect.
Second is the need to closely examine “good” and “bad” cases with regard to
influence on model fit. We demonstrated how a single case can alter the outcome
of a test of fit. We also demonstrated how one can investigate the nature of a
particular case and reach an understanding of how that case is inconsistent
with a specified model. We also wish to emphasize that the pattern of findings
regarding good and bad cases might provide insight into the causes of a finding
of mediocre to poor model fit. When a model is generally poorly specified and
inconsistent with the population of interest, we expect that an analysis of case
influence would show many or most cases contributing to poor fit. But when case
influence measures show only a few extremely bad cases, then an investigator
may be justified in believing that the model itself is perhaps not poorly specified
and that the problem lies in the fact that the sample contains a few highly atypical
cases that are inconsistent with the major regularities in the data.
The third point of emphasis involves the distinction between influential cases
and outliers. Although outliers are often influential, they are not always so, and
highly influential cases may not be outliers. Results in our examples illustrate
this phenomenon, which clearly arises because measures of influence are model
based and measures of outlying status are not. Thus investigators must recognize
the desirability of examining influence in addition to outlying status of cases.
Furthermore, the practice of truncating or censoring potential outliers prior
to model fitting (Rousseeuw & Van Zomeren, 1990; Tabachnick & Fidell,
2001) is strongly discouraged. Removing influential outliers before recognizing
that they are good cases will prematurely worsen model fit whereas removing
non-influential outlying cases will only reduce sample size and thus statistical
226 PEK AND MACCALLUM
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We thank Li Cai for sharing his program that estimated initial models. We thank
Kenneth A. Bollen for generously sharing data for the empirical example on the
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