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Gordis Epidemiology E Book 6Th Edition Full Chapter
Gordis Epidemiology E Book 6Th Edition Full Chapter
Conclusion
References
Selection of Subjects
Crossover
Factorial Design
Noncompliance
Conclusion
References
8
Chapter 11 Randomized Trials
Sample Size
Ethical Considerations
Conclusion
Epilogue
References
Absolute Risk
Relative Risk
Conclusion
9
References
Appendix to Chapter 12
Attributable Risk
Conclusion
References
Types of Associations
Conclusion
10
References
Bias
Confounding
Interaction
Conclusion
References
Traditional Genetics
Complex Diseases
Precision Medicine
Conclusion
References
11
Glossary of Genetic Terms for Chapter 16
Introduction
Measures of Outcome
Conclusion
References
12
Methodologic Issues
Conclusion
References
Risk Assessment
Meta-Analysis
Publication Bias
13
Conclusion
References
Access to Data
Conflict of Interest
Interpreting Findings
Conclusion
References
Index
14
Notes to Instructors
Contact your Elsevier Sales Representative for teaching resources,
including an image bank, for Gordis Epidemiology, 6e, or request
these supporting materials at:
http://evolve.elsevier.com/Gordis/epidemiology/
15
Copyright
Notices
Knowledge and best practice in this field are constantly changing.
As new research and experience broaden our understanding,
16
changes in research methods, professional practices, or medical
treatment may become necessary.
Practitioners and researchers must always rely on their own
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With respect to any drug or pharmaceutical products identified,
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their own experience and knowledge of their patients, to make
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individual patient, and to take all appropriate safety precautions.
To the fullest extent of the law, neither the Publisher nor the
authors, contributors, or editors, assume any liability for any injury
and/or damage to persons or property as a matter of products
liability, negligence or otherwise, or from any use or operation of
any methods, products, instructions, or ideas contained in the
material herein.
Cover credit:
An original watercolor “Remembering Baltimore” by
Haroutune K. Armenian, MD, DrPH
17
Professor Emeritus
Department of Epidemiology
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Printed in Canada
18
In Memoriam
Leon Gordis MD, MPH, DrPH
1934–2015
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Preface
Epidemiology is one of the foundational disciplines underlying
public health. Clinical research relies heavily on epidemiologic
methods and contemporary medical care research, particularly in
comparative effectiveness studies and statistical approaches to “big
data” (as in the use of the electronic medical record for health
studies). As Dr. Leon Gordis wrote in his preface to the fifth edition,
“Epidemiology is the basic science of disease prevention and plays
major roles in developing and evaluating public policy relating to
health and to social and legal issues.” There are many uses of
epidemiology today. The majority of epidemiologic research
focuses on establishing etiologic associations between putative risks
and health outcomes. However, epidemiology is also widely used
in the evaluation of primary and secondary prevention programs,
comparisons of interventions, and the evaluation of policy at the
population level. Epidemiologic findings commonly find their way
into public media, providing the public and policy makers with
data to guide personal decisions regarding their behavior.
Increasingly, the scrutiny focused on epidemiology may cause
researchers and practitioners some discomfort, as the interpretation
of basic epidemiologic principles can be subject to considerable
error. Our task is to make the thinking underlying epidemiology
transparent.
This book is intended to be a basic introduction to the definitions,
logic, and use of the epidemiologic method to elucidate factors
influencing health and disease. We have tried to illustrate the
principles with examples of how epidemiology is applied in the real
world. The examples selected include both “classic examples” from
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the early days of the development of the discipline of epidemiology
to contemporary examples. Where appropriate, we draw on
examples pertaining to clinical practice.
Upon the passing of Dr. Gordis in 2015, the sixth edition of this
book has been revised by two new authors, both of whom worked
with and under Professor Gordis and have been actively engaged in
teaching epidemiology at Johns Hopkins for over four decades. We
have generally retained the structure and organization of the
previous edition. In the fifth edition, learning objectives were
inserted in most chapters, and we have revised these and updated
the examples throughout. Additional new review questions have
been added to most chapters. A significant change has been to the
presentation and order of the methods in epidemiology that were
previously presented at the end of Section I and more extensively in
Section II. Rather than leading with the randomized trial (or the
“experimental” design) and then comparing observational study
design to the gold standard, we have organized the presentation of
epidemiologic methods along a study continuum from clinical
observation, to case-series, to the use of ecologic studies, and then
to cross-sectional investigations as the foundational approach to
epidemiologic hypothesis development. We then follow with case-
control and cohort designs, leading up to the randomized trial. This
more organically follows the development, in our opinion, of how
epidemiologic observations and hypotheses are developed in the
daily practice of doing epidemiology.
As with the previous edition, the sixth edition consists of three
sections. Section I addresses how epidemiology is used to
understand health and the development of diseases in populations
as well as the basis for interventions to influence the natural history
of disease. The first six chapters provide the conceptual framework
underlying the discipline of epidemiology and present many of the
basic principles of the discipline. Chapter 1 provides an overview of
epidemiology, using many historical examples to illustrate how the
field developed. Chapter 2 is concerned with how disease is
transmitted in populations, both directly (in the case of infectious
pathogens) and indirectly (for example, through a vector such as a
mosquito or contaminated air). The basic terms used in epidemics
are presented and illustrated to guide the student in seeing how
21
these principles and terms are used. Chapter 3 addresses disease
surveillance and how we measure morbidity in populations, while
Chapter 4 is concerned with aspects of mortality and measures of
disease impact in populations. Chapter 5 focuses on ways to detect
disease in populations, comparing different approaches to
differentiate people who have a disease from those who are disease
free, articulating how screening tests can be adjusted to better
diagnose those with or those without the disease in question. The
issues of the reliability and validity of screening tests are of critical
interest to both clinicians and to those planning for health services.
Finally, Chapter 6 presents how the natural history of disease can
be used to best express disease prognosis, using examples of case-
fatality and survivorship.
Section II details the methods used by epidemiologists primarily
to ascribe associations between a hypothesized exposure (risk) and
a health outcome. Chapter 7 discusses the initial observations made
in clinical practice (the case report) leading to a recognition of an
accumulation of cases that appear to have some commonalities (the
case series). This is followed by an introduction to the ecologic
design and its analysis, with cautions as to its interpretation.
Finally, cross-sectional (snapshot) studies are presented as the
groundwork for hypothesis development. Chapter 8 then provides
an introduction to observational studies as commonly used in
epidemiology, addressing case-control and cohort studies, which
are then compared in Chapter 9. To this point, we are addressing
exposures as they occur in populations, where we are observers of
exposures and their putative impacts on health outcomes. In
Chapter 10 we then move to the “experimental” approach
(randomized trial) in which the investigator “assigns” exposure or
health intervention—generally randomly—to study participants to
address how this influences the health outcome. In this case the
exposure is under the control of the investigator, not the study
participant, a crucial difference in the randomized trial as compared
to the cohort or other observational study design. Chapter 11
discusses a series of issues involved in the conduct of randomized
trials, including sample size, power, and generalizability;
determining efficacy (vs. effectiveness); ethical considerations; and
the US Federal Drug Administration phases for evaluating new
22
drugs. In Chapter 12 we present issues on estimating risk, including
absolute and relative risk and their interpretation, calculating and
interpreting an odds ratio in a case-control study and in a cohort
study, and doing so in a matched-pairs case-control study. In
Chapter 13 the concept of risk is expanded to include the
calculation and interpretation of the attributable risk, the
population attributable risks, and their use in evaluating the success
of prevention programs. Causal inference is introduced in Chapter
14 and focuses on how to derive inferences in epidemiologic
investigations. Chapter 15 presents issues of bias, confounding, and
interaction in epidemiologic studies and discusses how they
influence causal inference. Finally, Chapter 16 addresses the role of
genetic and environmental contributions to the etiology of disease,
and presents new methods of genetic research commonly used in
epidemiologic studies today.
Section III addresses the uses of epidemiology in everyday public
health. The final four chapters address some of the critical issues
facing the field today. Chapter 17 illustrates how epidemiologic
principles and designs described in Sections I and II are used in the
evaluation of health services. Chapter 18 addresses the use of
epidemiology to evaluate screening programs, while Chapter 19
details how epidemiology can be used to address major areas of
public health policy. The final chapter summarizes ethical issues
confronted in the practice of epidemiology and reviews some of the
important professional issues confronted by the field today.
We have continued in Professor Gordis' use of illustrations and
examples to demonstrate how epidemiologic issues and principles
are put into practice. We have updated examples extensively and
added new examples throughout the text. Many of the prior
chapters have been extensively edited and updated, with some
chapters being greatly expanded. The genetic epidemiology
presentation has been heavily edited and updated, reflecting the
amazing growth in genomics research in the past 5 years. In
Chapter 16 we have added a glossary of genetic epidemiology
terms to provide the student with some guidance for this somewhat
complex field. Finally, new review questions have been added at
the end of most chapters.
Our aim for this book is to allow the reader to appreciate how
23
epidemiology can be used to respond to population health
problems confronting society today. Our expectation is not that the
reader will be able to conduct an epidemiologic investigation.
Rather, we hope that there will be an appreciation of what
epidemiology is, what the basic research and evaluation designs
are, and how to interpret the basic findings in an epidemiologic
study. We hope that the excitement we feel about the uses of
epidemiology will come across to the reader of this text.
The cover illustration selected for this edition of Gordis
Epidemiology has special meaning. This original watercolor by
Haroutune Armenian, MD, DrPH, created in August 2017, is titled
“Remembering Baltimore.” Professor Armenian was a professor of
epidemiology, deputy chair to Professor Gordis for many years,
and interim chair from 1993–94, until Jon Samet became chair.
“Remembering Baltimore” truly captures the urban landscape of
Baltimore, Dr. Gordis' adopted home for some 60 years. The
distinctive rowhomes on the harbor are quintessential Baltimore,
much as the “Painted Ladies” are identified with San Francisco.
Much of Dr. Gordis' research centered on pediatric and childhood
disease in Baltimore, as illustrated in many of the examples in this
text. We are particularly proud to include this tribute by Dr.
Armenian to Dr. Gordis and to our first revision of his world-
renowned text. This sixth edition has kept our mind on our friend
and mentor.
David D. Celentano
Moyses Szklo
August 2018
24
Acknowledgments
This book reflects the contributions of several generations of
teachers of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins, first as the School of
Hygiene and Public Health, and more recently as the Bloomberg
School of Public Health. The course was developed by the
Department of Epidemiology faculty and was first taught as
Principles of Epidemiology by Dr. Abraham Lilienfeld, the chair of
the department from 1970–75. Dr. Leon Gordis became the course
instructor following an acute illness experienced by Dr. Lilienfeld in
the midst of teaching the subject in 1974. Dr. Gordis then was the
primary lecturer for the following 30 years. In addition, Dr. Gordis
taught epidemiology to many cohorts of School of Medicine
students for a similar period of time. This book was developed from
these experiences, and Dr. Gordis was the author of the first five
editions of this very popular text.
The current authors were trained in public health at Johns
Hopkins and were actively engaged as members of the
epidemiology teaching team for many years when they were junior
faculty. Dr. Szklo taught the second course in the epidemiology
sequence, Intermediate Epidemiology. Upon Dr. Gordis' retirement,
Dr. Celentano became the director of Principles of Epidemiology,
which has recently been revised in content and renamed
Epidemiologic Inference in Public Health 1. Its content reflects this
sixth edition of Gordis Epidemiology.
Many colleagues have made invaluable contributions to this
revision of Gordis Epidemiology. Chief among them was the late Dr.
George W. Comstock, mentor, adviser, and sage scientist to both of
25
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*
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