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 viii | Contents

Appendix A: Going a Step Further 277

Appendix B: Some Additional Explanations 281

Glossary of Statistical Terms 287

Credits 293
References 297
Index 299

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 Detailed Contents

Preface xiv
Acknowledgements xvi

PART I DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR ONE VARIABLE 1

Chapter 1 Levels of Measurement 2

Learning Objectives 2
The Stevens Classification 2
Nominal Measures 3
Ordinal Measures 4
Interval Measures 5
Ratio Measures 5
Dichotomies 5
Treating Ordinal Variables as Interval 7
Two Related Classifications 10
Graphing 11
Summary 13
Review Questions on Levels of Measurement 13
Notes 14

Chapter 2 Measures of Central Tendency 15

Learning Objectives 15
Definitions and Notation 16
Links to Levels of Measurement 16
Potentially Unstable Results 19
Instability of the Mode 19
Instability of the Median 19
Instability of the Mean 21
Measures of Central Tendency as Averages 22
Relations among the Mode, Median, and Mean 25
Summary 26
Review Questions on Central Tendency 26
Notes 27

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 x | Contents

Chapter 3 Measures of Dispersion 28

Learning Objectives 28
Measures for Nominal Variables 29
The Index of Diversity 29
The Index of Qualitative Variation 33
An Information Theoretic (Entropy) Measure of Dispersion 37
Quantile-Based Measures of Dispersion 40
An Alternative—The MAD 42
The Standard Deviation 43
Calculating a Standard Deviation 44
Instability of the Standard Deviation 45
The Standard Deviation with Ordinal Data 46
Standardizing Variables 47
The Standard Deviation and the Tails of a Distribution 47
The Special Case of the Dichotomy 49
Summary 51
Review Questions on Measures of Dispersion 52
Notes 53

Chapter 4 Describing the Shape of a Distribution 54

Learning Objectives 54
Modes 56
Skewness and Kurtosis 57
Formulae for Skewness and Kurtosis 63
Summary 67
Review Questions on Shapes of Distributions 67
Note 67

Chapter 5 Summarizing a Distribution 68

Learning Objectives 68
The Five-Number Summary 68
Graphing a Distribution 69
Boxplots 69
Pie Charts, Bar Charts, and Histograms 73
The Dot Chart 76
Smoothed Histograms 78
Back-to-Back Histograms 80

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 Contents | xi

The Population Pyramid 80

Cumulative Distributions 82
Creating a Mean and Standard Deviation Table 83
Summary 85
Review Questions on Summarizing a Distribution 85

PART II Statistical Inference 87

Chapter 6 Sampling Distributions 88

Learning Objectives 88
The Normal Distribution 90
The Sampling Distribution of a Proportion 93
The t Distribution 94
The Sampling Distribution for the Mean When t Applies 96
The Chi-Square Distribution 97
Relations among the Normal, t, and Chi-Square Distributions 101
The Effect of Sample Size 101
Summary 102
Review Questions on Sampling Distributions 103
Notes 104

Chapter 7 The Standard Model of Statistical Inference 105

Learning Objectives 105
Central Ideas 105
Tests with Chi-Square 108
Statistical Power 110
Confidence Intervals 112
Summary 114
Review Questions on the Standard Model of Statistical Inference 114
Note 114

Chapter 8 The Bayesian Alternative 115

Learning Objectives 115
Frequentist and Personal Probabilities 117
Bayes’ Theorem 119
Estimating a Proportion 121
Effects of Priors and Sample Data 123

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 xii | Contents

Credible Intervals 124

Numerical Equivalence to Standard Results 125
Summary 126
Review Questions on the Bayesian Alternative 126
Note 126

PART III Measures of Association 127

Association and Independence 127

Chapter 9 Measures for Nominal and Ordinal Variables 129

Learning Objectives 129
pre Measures 129
Lambda 130
Gamma 133
Somers’ d 137
Calculating Gamma and d for Tables Larger than 2 × 2 140
Yule’s Q as a Special Case of Gamma 143
The Odds Ratio 145
Q as a Function of the Odds Ratio 149
The Usefulness of Q with Changing Marginals 149
Summary 152
Review Questions on Measures for Nominal and Ordinal Variables 152
Notes 154

Chapter 10 Pearson’s r 155

Learning Objectives 155
Explaining the Formula 155
Calculation 158
Interpretations of r 158
The Sampling Distribution of r 159
Spearman’s Rho 159
Phi 160
Correlation Matrices 160
Graphic Displays for Interval or Ratio Data 162
Summary 165
Review Questions on Pearson’s r 166
Note 166

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 Contents | xiii

PART IV Examining Crosstabulations 167

Chapter 11 Two-Way Tables 168

Learning Objectives 168
Reading a Crosstabulation 168
Heavy and Light Cells 170
Standardized Residuals 171
Setting Up a Crosstabulation for Presentation 174
Further Graphic Methods of Clarifying a Crosstabulation 177
Summary 181
Review Questions on Heavy and Light Cells and Graphic Methods 181
Notes 182

Chapter 12 Conditional Tables 183

Learning Objectives 183
The Columbia Approach 183
Specification 184
Causal Chains 186
Spurious Association 188
Distortion 189
Conditional Probabilities 192
An Illustration with Polytomies 192
Summary 195
Review Questions on Conditional Tables 195
Note 195

PART V Regression 197

Chapter 13 Bivariate Regression 198

Learning Outcomes 198
Origins 198
The Principle of Least Squares 200
The Logic of the see 203
The Logic of r2 204
Relative Usefulness of the see and r2 206
The Form of the Equation 207
Interpreting b 208

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 xiv | Contents

Graphic Display for Bivariate Regression 210

Non-linear Trends 211
Truncation 211
Exponential Curves 212
More Than One Slope 214
Handling Nominal Polytomies 217
Quadratic Trends 219
Summary 221
Review Questions on Bivariate Regression 221
Notes 222

Chapter 14 Multiple Regression 223

Learning Objectives 223
Why Multiple Regression (mr)? 223
Obtaining b’s in Multiple Regression 225
Using Least Squares in Bivariate and Multiple Regression 226
Interpreting b’s in Multiple Regression 228
Getting the Right Variables into the Equation 229
Interpreting a Table of Regression Results 231
Interaction Terms 234
An Example with Two Dichotomies 237
Setting Up a Regression Table 239
Creating an Equation 241
Graphs Presenting Regression Results 242
The Special Case of Analysis of Variance (anova) 243
One-way anova 243
Two-way anova 244
Interactions 246
Analysis of Covariance 250
The F Distribution in Regression and anova 251
Summary 254
Review Questions on Multiple Regression and anova 254
Notes 256

Chapter 15 Path Analysis 257

Learning Objectives 257
A Famous Path Model 257
Setting Up Path Diagrams 259

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 Contents | xv

Equations 259
Decomposing a Correlation 260
Steps in Decomposing a Correlation 261
A Further Example 262
Summary 264
Review Questions on Path Analysis 264
Note 265

Chapter 16 Logistic Regression 266

Learning Objectives 266
Why Logistic Regression? 266
Logits 267
Interpreting the b’s 268
Converting Odds to Probabilities 269
A Sample Logistic Regression Table 271
An Extension of the Logistic Model: Multinomial Regression 273
Summary 275
Review Questions on Logistic Regression 276
Note 276

Appendix A Going a Step Further 277

A1: Minimizing the Sum of Squared Deviations 277
A2: The Mean and Standard Deviation of Z–Scores 278
A3: The Standard Deviation of a Proportion 279

Appendix B Some Additional Explanations 281

B1: Basic Notes on Logarithms 281
B2: Obtaining Expected Values for Chi-Square 284
B3: Another Form of Bayesian Hypothesis Testing 286

Glossary of Statistical Terms 287

Credits 293
References 297
Index 299

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 Preface

T his book stems from 19 years of teaching undergraduates in sociology. In my first year
of teaching I wrote material to supplement the text I was using. In my second I replaced
sections that students had trouble following. Encouraged by their response, I wrote mate-
rial to cover topics not treated in the text I had moved to. Six years ago I decided to teach
entirely from my own material. This has been revised into the volume you see. Apart from
material created in light of reviewers’ comments, everything been class tested, most of it at
least five times.
The book moves quickly over topics that are standard in a one-semester first course. On
these themes it provides only a review or a review with added sophistication. It then moves
to cover a range of material broader than that of texts often used with Canadian undergrad-
uates. This may be readily seen in the detailed Table of Contents. Notice, in particular, the
extended section on regression, the analytic strategy most common in the journals today.
Since a second course may vary to suit the research interests of a department, and log-
linear models are very important in some areas of sociology, a chapter on basic log-linear
modelling is available for download from the course website, along with other instructional
materials. In my experience, students can handle this chapter as well as other material in
the latter half of the book.
Although this book does not emphasize calculation, it does present numerous formulae.
When it does so, it always explains why the formula is what it is. For example, students have
often been asked to memorize the formula for a standard deviation, or of Pearson’s r, or to
do calculations based on these formulae, without knowing why they take the form they do. I
have included a rationale for each. In the explanations I have not used mathematics beyond
high school algebra, but where a bit of algebra could be helpful I have been happy to use it.
Broad coverage and detailed explanation can be combined in a text intended for a one-
semester course because of a conceptual approach, together with extensive use of graphics.
By a conceptual approach, I mean simply one focused on why we use particular statistics,
what they can tell us, how they can mislead us, and what to do to prevent being misled (or
misleading others). Within this framework, students may be asked to work out the values of
basic statistics, but primarily as an aid to conceptual understanding. Since computers now

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 Preface | xvii

do almost all serious statistical calculation, both in academia and outside, we have reduced
reason to emphasize do-it-yourself calculation, and can therefore move students further in
their conceptual understanding.
This is made much easier by frequent use of graphics. In this respect, I have been much
influenced by graphic methods often used in the sub-discipline of statistical graphics. In
one case, that of the chapter on conditional tables, I can move through the material in less
than half the time I needed before adding graphs. Apart from its advantages in teaching,
graphical communication is common in the leading journals of sociology, in the business
world, in reporting research results to general audiences, and increasingly in the mass
media. Exposing students to a wide range of graphics is therefore of much more than
instructional advantage.
Each chapter concludes with a set of review questions. I have used many of these, or
variations on them, as short answer questions in examinations. If I present a question
containing data or statistics, the numbers are never those in the handbook, but if students
understand the answers to the review questions, and have not just tried to memorize right
answers, they have acquired the key knowledge I hope to pass on. If examinations take
another form, working out the answers to the review questions should provide excellent
study notes.
While I have made no compromises in content, apart from omitting material requiring
matrix algebra, I have aimed to keep the writing simple. Of course technical terms must
be used, but otherwise I have aimed at a level which university-bound students in the later
years of high school could readily handle.
In the interests of clear exposition, I have sometimes explained a point with an artificial
example, then moved to one based on real data. In other cases, real data has lent itself well to
purposes of exposition. In these cases I have often presented a second example, based on the
experience that a second example has helped students to feel secure in their understanding.
I have also been influenced by a student observation that, when studying, if a point is clear
from the first example the second can be skimmed, but if it is not clear from the first the
second can become crucial. Over 70% of the real examples come from Canadian data. On
the other hand I have taken examples from Belgium, England, Mexico, and the US where
these have seemed clearer, more memorable, or simply more likely to interest my students
than Canadian examples of which I am aware.
The book has been strengthened considerably by suggestions from reviewers, who
typically were in broad agreement on what could helpfully be done. On one point, though,
the best location for the chapters on statistical inference, they were divided. I have placed
these chapters in accordance with majority preference, after the material on describing a
single variable. However, having presented statistical inference at a later point in my own
classes, and understanding well the advantages of doing so, I will point out that if two small
sub-sections which rely on the idea of a sampling distribution are omitted or postponed,
or if students remember the most basic ideas about inference, then Part Two on statistical
inference can be moved without difficulty to after the section on measures of association.

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 xviii | Preface

Having profited from numerous suggestions from reviewers of the initial draft, I look
forward to further suggestions from users of the book. Any received will be considered
carefully.

Acknowledgements
If authors mention only those closest to the creation of their books, acknowledgements
can be brief. If all those who directly or indirectly contributed are mentioned, the list can
scarcely be completed. I will not attempt such a list, but I must mention those to whom
most is owed.
I owe William and Rosalie Arnold a very great deal for encouraging their bookish son,
at a time and place in which bookishness was not greatly in fashion. I owe them a great deal
as well for taking out loans to put me through my first degree, at a time when student loans
were unavailable, so that I could graduate without my own debts.
At the University of Saskatchewan, I was introduced to sociology by a great teacher,
Edward Abramson, who encouraged me to take courses in both applied and theoretical
statistics through the Department of Mathematics. Neither he nor I, nor my teachers
Abraham Kaller and Nicholas Sklov could have known they were preparing me for much
of the work of my adult life.
At the Social Planning and Research Council in Hamilton, where I had been hired by Harry
Penny, soon to be the Director of the School of Social Work at McMaster, I was fortunate to be
principal investigator for three studies that resulted in book-length manuscripts, each based on
quantitative data. Reports from each were reviewed by an advisory committee of academics and
social service administrators. For most of my time there, the chair of the committee was Frank
Jones of the McMaster Sociology department, later to be a member of my doctoral committee.
Some examples in this text stem from work done at the Council.
Michael Wheeler, at that time in the School of Social Work at McMaster, and Doris
Guyatt, of the Ontario Ministry of Community and Social Services, then provided the
opportunity to serve as principal investigator in what turned out to be a three-wave
longitudinal study of the experience of parents with custody of children after marital
separation. Some examples in the text stem from this work.
During my years in applied research I always enjoyed opportunities to teach. With
that in mind, I went to McMaster for doctoral work. There I had the opportunity to do a
specialized comprehensive in quantitative methods, which I chose, in part, to allow me to
make contributions to joint projects, from which I have since learned much. At McMaster
I also learned a great deal about how to teach statistics to students of sociology by watching
Alfred Hunter, Charles Jones, and Peter Pineo at work. Peter Pineo, my dissertation
supervisor, in his self-effacing way, was a model of careful analytic practice. No one’s work
was more certain to replicate well. The exposition of ANOAS models for my dissertation
helped to prepare me to write the chapter on log-linear modelling available from the
textbook website.

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 Preface | xix

At Queen’s I had the opportunity to teach methods and statistics at both the undergraduate
and the Master’s levels. After two years, though, my teaching had to be reduced because I
had become project methodologist for the evaluation of Better Beginnings, Better Futures,
a provincially sponsored program designed to improve the life chances of children and
families in disadvantaged neighbourhoods. Numerous examples in this volume are based
on the Better Beginnings data set.
I am grateful to Vince Sacco for introducing me to the project, which, with its multi-site
longitudinal design, provided ongoing challenges. I am also grateful to the funders, Ray
Peters, Kelly Petrunka, and the other members of the project Core Team for providing a
context in which my role in a highly complex evaluation could be carried out.
Having moved to Windsor, I have had the opportunity teach statistics and/or methods
every year at the undergraduate level, and often at the M.A. or Ph.D. level. This experience
has helped greatly in thinking through what can and should be presented, and how, in a
textbook of the kind you have before you.
The final form of the manuscript owes a great deal to the staff of Oxford University
Press Canada.
Thank you to the reviewers of the draft manuscript: Tom Buchanan, Kenneth
MacKenzie, Jenny Godley, and those who chose to remain anonymous. Of course I must
accept responsibility for such failings as may remain.
S.D.G.
Robert Arnold,
September, 2014

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901207_00_FM.indd 20 12/11/14 12:09 PM
 Part I
Descriptive Statistics
for One Variable

D escriptive statistics for a single variable often provide key pieces of information. The
mid-term average gives an indication of how well a class is doing. Unemployment rates
provide an indication of where an economy is moving. Average incomes for immigrant
groups inform us about how well they are integrating into the Canadian economy.
Besides providing key information, descriptive statistics may tell us how far we can rely
on other data. Survey researchers report characteristics of their samples—age, sex, income,
and the like—so readers can decide whether the samples are biased. For studies of specific
populations, statistics may be needed to show that they have been reached. For example, I
once looked at contraceptive practices in low-income areas, and had to show that the people
interviewed were often of lower socio-economic status.
Descriptive statistics can also tell us what analyses can be done. If, for example, we want
to know how cultural or racial groups are faring in the economy, we have to see how many
cases we have from which groups. Or if we hypothesize that the effect of income on health
will be most pronounced at the lower extremes of income, we will need to see how many
cases we have there.
It is for good reason, then, that this text begins with descriptive statistics for single
variables. Since the ones we use depend heavily on levels of measurement, we shall begin
with them.

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 1
Levels of Measurement

Learning Objectives
In this chapter, you will learn

• a widely known way of classifying variables, which helps us to

decide which statistics can be used with them;
• some limitations of this classification;
• two other common ways to classify variables; and
• typical ways of graphing for variables of specific types.

The Stevens Classification

The most widely used classification of levels of measurement is that proposed by Stevens
(1946). We shall see how he distinguished among four levels and look at some of their limit-
ations in practice. Two alternative classifications will be considered, and graphs appropriate
to the second of these will be illustrated.
For Stevens (1946), measurement requires
a) that we be able to categorize each observation, and
b) that we be able to place each in only one category.
For example, if we ask people their country of birth, we should be able to place each
person in a category: Canada, Italy, Somalia, and so on, and each person should fit in
only one category. To put the requirements a bit more technically, the categories must

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 1 | Levels of Measurement | 3
be exhaustive (so all cases can be placed) and mutually exclusive (so no case can go into
more than one).
When these standards are met, measurement can take place at four levels:
nominal;
ordinal;
interval; and
ratio.

Nominal Measures
What distinguishes nominal measurement is that any numbers assigned to the categories
are arbitrary. We might set up a code scheme beginning with
1 - Canada;
2 - Italy; and
3 - Somalia,
but we could equally well have set it up as
1 - Somalia;
2 - Italy; and
3 - Canada.
In the social sciences we have many nominal measures, with numbers assigned arbi-
trarily. We very often see
1 - male; and
2 - female,
but we also often see
0 - male; and
1 - female.
Again, we may see main activity coded
1 - employment;
2 - seeking work;
3 - schooling;

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 4 | Part I | Descriptive Statistics for One Variable
4 - homemaking;
5 - retirement; and
6 - other,
but the numbers could easily be switched around.
Because numbers are assigned arbitrarily in nominal measurement, it makes no sense
to do arithmetic with them.
Ordinal Measures
When we can meaningfully order, or rank, the categories, we can assign numbers reflecting
their order. Suppose we ask for responses to “I am enjoying my time at university.” Answers
can be put in an order reflecting degree of agreement—for example,
1 - strongly agree;
2 - agree;
3 - neutral;
4 - disagree; and
5 - strongly disagree.
The interval and ratio levels also require that categories be ordered. What distinguishes
the ordinal level is that we cannot readily say that the distance between any two categories
is the same as that between any two others. In the example, we cannot readily say whether
the difference between “strongly agree” and “agree” is the same as that between “neutral”
and “disagree” or between any other two adjacent categories.1
The same applies for many other sociological variables—for example, highest level of
formal education, which might be coded
0 - secondary incomplete;
1 - secondary complete;
2 - some post-secondary, no degree; and
3 - university degree(s).
Any category further along is more advanced than those before it, but the distances
among them are unclear.
Because we do not know the precise distance between categories, we are in an awkward
position to do arithmetic. With full certainty, we can only treat one category as above or
below another. However, as we shall see, those who believe that distances between categor-
ies are approximately the same often use addition and subtraction. Their reasons will be
illustrated after we look at Stevens’ other two levels of measurement.

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 1 | Levels of Measurement | 5
Interval Measures
At the interval level, as in all successful measurement, categories are exhaustive and mutually
exclusive. As at the ordinal level, they are clearly ordered. In interval measurement, though,
the distance between adjacent categories is the same wherever we are along the scale. A
stock example is temperature. The distance between 5 degrees and 10 is the same as the
difference between 15 and 20.
Because the distances are precise, and adjacent categories are equidistant, we can do
addition and subtraction straightforwardly. If we take 10 degrees − 5 degrees = 5 degrees,
the result means the same as if we had taken 20 − 15.
We still have a problem with multiplication and division, though. If the temperature
were 5 degrees, and someone suggested that at 10 degrees it would be twice as warm, we
would be puzzled by the claim. The reason is that an interval measure lacks a meaningful
0. The mere existence of the Celsius and Fahrenheit scales, with their differing 0 points,
underscores the reality that 0 does not represent the full absence of temperature. That being
so, it makes no sense to say that 10 degrees is twice as hot as 5, or half as hot as 20.
Ratio Measures
As at the earlier levels, categories are exhaustive and mutually exclusive. As at the ordinal
and interval levels, categories are ordered, and as was true at the interval, adjacent cat-
egories are equidistant. The distinctive feature of the ratio level is a meaningful zero point.
Examples include population counts, grades on examinations, incomes, and years of age or
of education completed.
Because there is a meaningful zero, not only addition and subtraction, but also multipli-
cation and division make sense. If we multiply someone’s income by two, we get the income
of someone who, in these terms, is doing twice as well. If a mother is 52 and her daughter
26, it is meaningful to say the daughter is half her mother’s age.
Dichotomies
Dichotomies (variables which take on only two values) are a special case. They may be treated
as lying at any one of the four levels. Take, for example, a variable called UDEGREE, coded
0 = has no university degree; and
1 = has a degree.
If the order of the categories is of no concern—we just want to distinguish two groups—
there is no problem in treating this variable as nominal. It can also be seen as ordinal, since
having a degree means having more advanced education than being without one. Further,
since there is only one distance between categories, there need be no concern about whether
distances are constant, so this variable can be treated as interval without a problem. We can
also think of the first category as representing a meaningful zero: you have a degree or you
do not, so if sheer presence of the degree is what matters, the variable can be treated as ratio.

901207_01_Ch01.indd 5 12/11/14 6:54 AM

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"No better! Oh dear!" said Michael. Then, as the cold air
blew in upon him, he began to cough.

"Now do go in out of the cold," said the girl. "You'll be

worse, if you don't take more care of yourself, Mr. Betts."

"But I want to hear what the doctor said. I want to know all
about it," Michael protested. "If you won't come inside, I
must stand here and catch cold."

"Oh, well, then," said the girl, yielding, "I don't want you to
catch your death." And she stepped inside.

Michael led her into the inner room, and tried feebly to stir
the dull fire into a blaze.

"Let me do that," said the girl eagerly. "I'm a rare hand at

making a fire. But you did ought to keep a better fire than
this, Mr. Betts. You don't know how to take care of
yourself."

"Don't I?" said Michael. "Ah, and I've no daughter to take

care of me, as your father has."

"Ah, poor father!" said the girl, her face clouding over.

"Is he worse?" asked Michael.

She nodded. "This cold wind is so bad for him," she said.

Observing the girl more closely, Michael saw that her face
was wan and thin, with dark circles beneath the eyes.

"Set the kettle on the fire," he said, "and make yourself a

cup of cocoa."

"No, thank you," she said. "I'll make a cup for you with
pleasure; but none for me—thank you all the same."
"Well, put the kettle on," he said, thinking she might change
her mind, "and then tell me all the doctor said."

"That's more than I can tell you," said the girl, with a smile;
"but they say he is not without hope of pulling her through.
He says the next twenty-four hours will decide it."

"Ah," said Michael, with a shiver.

"We must just hope for the best," said the girl, striving after
cheerfulness; "hope and pray, that's what we've got to do.
Did I tell you that Mrs. Lavers sent a message to us girls at
the club, asking us all to pray for her?"

"No," said Michael, "you did not tell me that."

They sat in silence for a few minutes. Presently the water

began to boil, and his new friend busied herself in making
him a cup of cocoa. She did it deftly, and waited upon him
in a kind and gentle way; but she was not to be persuaded
to take any herself. Michael was hurt by the determined
manner in which she refused his hospitality. He could not
understand why she did so, for she really looked as if she
needed nourishment.

"What work do you do?" he asked presently.

"I make matches when I can get taken on," she replied;
"but just now is a slack time in the trade."

"Then you're badly off, I fear," he said.

"I haven't complained, have I?" she asked, turning upon

him with an air of defiance. Then, with an evident desire to
turn the conversation, she remarked, as she looked about
her, "What a sight of books you have, Mr. Betts!"
"Do you like books?" he asked.

She nodded her head. "I'm awful fond of reading."

"Well," he said, with the kindest intention, "if there are any
of my books that you would like to read, I'm willing to lend
them to you."

"Oh no, thank you," she said hastily, colouring as she

spoke, and giving a quick little movement of the head, as if
the suggestion annoyed her. "I don't want to borrow your
books, Mr. Betts."

He looked at her curiously. She was certainly a very strange

girl. But he liked her. He was beginning to feel considerable
confidence in her.

"I must go now," she said. "I don't like to leave father for
long."

"Stay a moment," said Michael in a timid, hesitating way. "I

wish you'd do something for me before you go."

"What is it?" she asked.

"Just kneel down and say a prayer for that poor little child. I
want to pray, but I can't. My heart is so hard—and—and—
it's years since I tried—but I'd like to hear you."

She looked startled and alarmed.

"Oh, I can't," she said; "I can't pray out loud like that."

"Say it in a whisper," he suggested.

She hesitated, her colour coming and going under the strain
of excited emotion.
"I'll try," she said at last. "She says it don't matter what
words we use, as long as they come from the heart. God
can read our heart, and He will understand."

So she knelt down, and Michael bent beside her, whilst in

broken, childish utterance, the very quaintness of which
seemed to prove its sincerity, she asked the loving Father to
spare the life of little Margery. And Michael prayed too,
breathing forth what was perhaps the first true prayer of his
life. The prayer seemed to bring the assurance of its
answer. There were tears in the eyes of each as they rose;
but God's comfort was in their hearts. The girl said not a
word as Michael shook hands with her; but when she
quitted the house and walked quickly homeward her heart
was filled with a strange wonder not unmixed with joy.

CHAPTER XI
MUTUAL CONFESSION

WHEN Michael rose the next day, he found to his

satisfaction that the wind had changed. It no longer blew
from the north-east. There was a soft, spring-like feeling in
the air. It was time for Spring to herald her approach. The
winter had been long and hard. No one felt more pleasure
at the thought of its departure than did Michael Betts.

He opened his shop betimes on this fair morning, and then

set to work to put things in order there. He felt very weak
as he did so. More than once he dropped the heavy volumes
he tried to lift. It was clear he was not the man he had
been. No, he was beginning to fail. And then he thought
with a smile and a sigh of the little fair-haired maiden who
had thought him "so very old." He was very anxious to
know how this morning found her. He kept hoping that the
girl whose acquaintance he had made in so strange a
manner would come in to tell him how the little sufferer
was; but she did not come, and at last, unable to wait
longer, he sent Mrs. Wiggins round to the house to make
inquiries.

The news she brought cheered him greatly. She had been
told that the little girl had taken a turn for the better, and
there now seemed hope of her recovery.

"Thank God!" ejaculated old Michael.

He could not trust himself to say more. He felt so glad that

he could have cried like a child for very gladness. As it was
he had to take off his spectacles and wipe them very
carefully more than once before he could go on with his
work.

"Thank God," he said to himself over and over again. God

had heard his prayer—their prayer. How he wished his new
friend would come in, that they might rejoice together! He
had known her but for a day; he did not even know her
name; but the sorrow and anxiety they had shared, the
prayer they had joined in breathing forth as from one heart,
had united them by a close bond of sympathy which years
of ordinary acquaintance could not have wrought.

But the girl did not appear all that day, nor the second day,
nor the third. Michael began to feel a vague uneasiness
concerning her.
"Surely she might have come round just to say how pleased
she was," he thought. "Can it be that she wants to drop my
acquaintance, or is her father worse? If only I knew where
she lived, I'd go and see."

Meanwhile each day Margery was reported to be a little

better. Her throat grew clearer, her voice more distinct, and
signs of returning strength gladdened the heart of her
anxious mother, till at length the little one's recovery no
longer seemed doubtful.

How thankful Michael was, no words can tell. He felt that if

the little one had died, he could never have forgiven himself
for what he had done. As it was, the burden of his past
weighed heavily on his mind. He fell into the habit of
walking round to Mrs. Lavers' house every evening when his
shop was closed. He would carry with him some little gift of
flowers or fruit for the child. And Mrs. Lavers never refused
these, never showed by word or look the least
consciousness of the wrong he had done her.

Once when he spoke of it, she said: "Dear friend, let us

forget all about that. Our Lord taught us that if we did not
forgive the brother who wronged us, we could have no
blessed sense of God's forgiving love. I forgive you from my
heart, and God will forgive you too if you ask Him."

But old Michael went home with a heavy heart. He

remembered how he had treated his own brother, and it
seemed to him that he had no right to expect that God
would forgive him his sins.

One evening Michael was in his shop, setting things in order

at the close of the day. He had not yet put up his shutters;
but he scarcely expected to have any more customers that
day, when suddenly the door opened, the bell tinkled, and
he looked up to see the worn, weary-looking preacher
entering the shop. It was some time since this gentleman
had been there, and Michael was pleased to see him again.

"Just in time, sir," he said; "in another ten minutes my

shutters would have been up."

"Ah, well, I am very glad to find you here," replied the

gentleman; "though I do not come as a purchaser. But what
is the matter with you, Betts? You are not looking at all
well."

"I have not been well, sir; but I'm better now. I've had a
sharp attack of rheumatic fever, and it has left me as you
see. I shall never be again the man I was."

"Dear me! I am sorry to hear that. Rheumatism is a terrible

thing. You do look as if it had pulled you down. And
unhappily I bring you news that will distress you. Do you
know I am visiting a poor man in the district where my
mission-hall is who tells me he is your brother."

Michael started and changed colour.

"It's true, sir," he said, after a moment's pause; "he is my

brother."

"I thought so. I could not doubt his story as he told it. It is
a sad story, Mr. Betts. He is now on his death-bed. I have
come to entreat you to go with me to him."

Michael sank on to the nearest chair. He was trembling so

that he could not stand. He said nothing, and the gentleman
went on speaking.

"He feels that he has wronged you grievously, and he wants

to make what amends he can, and to hear you say you
forgive him, ere he passes away. I don't think you will find it
hard to forgive him when you see him as he is."

"There's no need to talk so, sir. You don't understand. I've

most need to ask his forgiveness. The wrong wasn't all on
one side. I can see that now, though I couldn't before.
Where is he, if you please, sir?"

"At no great distance. I will take you there at once, if you

can come."

"Ay, I can come, sir; I have only to put up the shutters, and
I shall be ready."

So in a few minutes they were on their way. In Oxford

Street, the gentleman hailed an omnibus going westward,
into which he helped old Michael, and then seated himself
beside him. From this they alighted when it had carried
them about a couple of miles.

"Now, do you feel able to walk a few steps?" the minister

asked Michael.

"Yes, yes, I can walk," he replied; but in truth, he felt faint

and tremulous, and could not have walked far. Happily it
took them but a few minutes to reach their destination. A
dreary, miserable street it was, though it lay very near to
the large and handsome dwellings of the rich.

Michael looked with dismay on the dirty, squalid houses, the

ill-kempt, slatternly women who sat on the doorsteps, or
hung about the public-houses—there were three in the
street, though it was not long—and the ragged urchins who
disported themselves in the road. The minister paused
before one of the houses. The wretched-looking women
crouched together on the doorstep slowly rose and made
room for them to pass into the house. The minister led the
way up a foul and rickety staircase. Not till he reached the
top did he pause and tap at a door. A voice within bade him
enter, and he opened the door and advanced into the room.

Michael was slowly following him. The steep stairs tried his
breathing, the close, ill-smelling atmosphere made him feel
faint. He had to pause at the top of the stairs, clinging for a
moment to the unsteady bannister, ere he could find
strength to advance. As he waited, he heard a weak voice
within asking painfully:

"Will he not come, Mr. Mason? Oh, don't tell me that he

refuses to come!"

Michael went forward quickly into the room. It was a poor

place. A table, a couple of chairs, a box or two, and the bed
on which the sick man lay, were all the furniture; but it was
fairly clean, and there were tokens of womanly efforts to
make things as comfortable as they might be. By the bed
stood the girl whose acquaintance Michael had made at Mrs.
Lavers' door.

He started, and an exclamation of surprise escaped him as

he recognised her; but she made a quick movement
enjoining him to silence, and he said nothing.

"I've come, Frank," he said, turning his eyes upon the bed;
"I've come, and with all my heart, I wish I had come
sooner."

There could be little doubt that the hand of death was on

the man who lay there. His wasted face was deadly pale,
the breath came with difficulty through his parted lips;
there was a look of anguish in his eyes, and when he spoke
it was by a painful effort.
"Thank God you've come in time, Michael. Will you come
and sit here close beside me, so you may hear what I have
to say, though I can't speak loud?"

Michael took the seat indicated without a word. Such

emotions swept over him at the sight of his brother that it
was impossible to speak.

"Kate," said the sick man, making a sign which she

understood in a moment.

She knelt down beside the bed, and began fumbling for
something beneath the mattress. Presently she drew forth a
tiny bag made of faded scarlet flannel, which she placed
beside her father.

"Michael," said the sick man feebly, "I was a sore trial to
you before we parted. You might well feel ashamed of me,
as I know you did. I was a bad, ungrateful brother."

"Don't speak of it," said Michael huskily; "never mind that

now."

"But I must speak of it. I sent for you that I might speak of
it, as Mr. Mason knows. Michael, the last time you gave me
shelter in your home I was so ungrateful, so shameless,
that I stole one of your books and carried it off with me."

"I know that you did," replied Michael, "but never mind that
now, Frank."

"It was a Greek book," continued the other, without heeding

his words. "I'd heard you say that it was worth seven
pounds. I could not get that for it; but I found a dealer who
was willing to give me half, and for that I sold it. The money
soon went in drink, and I thought no more about it for a
long time. Then I married. At first I let my wife think that I
had no one in the world belonging to me; but one day when
I'd taken a drop too much, I let out that I had a brother
who was a well-to-do tradesman, and then she set her
heart on seeing me reconciled to my brother. I had to tell
her the whole story at last, just to make her see it was
impossible. But even then she would not see it. No; she just
said that I must save the money I'd had for the book, and
pay it back to you. It was she who began the saving, you
see. We did not get on very fast with the saving; but we
made a beginning. Then she fell ill. Mr. Mason began to visit
us then. He's been a good friend to us. He tried to make me
a sober man for a long, long while before he succeeded."

"Don't say that I succeeded," said Mr. Mason. "It was the
grace of Christ that delivered you from sin and enabled you
to begin a new life."

"It is more than a year ago," said the sick man slowly,
"since I took the pledge, and Kate and I have been trying
ever since to add to the money in the bag. My wife left it in
Kate's hands; she knew she could not trust it to me. It has
not been easy to save. Kate put most into it, not I. She's a
good girl is Kate, though I say it."

"Ah, she's a good girl," said Michael, so fervently that his

brother looked at him in surprise.

"What, you say so too? But you do not know her."

"I can tell by the looks of her," said Michael evasively.

"Ah, well—it's true anyway. But now about this money,

Michael. I have so longed to make your loss good. I thought
you'd believe I was a changed man if I gave you back your
money. But it's been hard work. We've had to draw out
some of the money since I've been ill. There's only five
pounds in the bag now, and I wanted to make it seven, for
you said the book was worth that to you. Here's the money;
take it and count it."

But Michael pushed the bag from it.

"No, no, Frank; keep the money. I don't want it, indeed. I
would rather not have it."

"But you must take it," cried the other excitedly. "I can't
rest unless you do. Ah, Michael, you don't know, an honest,
respectable man as you've always been, what it is to have
the burden of such a deed resting on your conscience."

"Don't say that, Frank—don't for goodness sake talk that

way, for it's not true!"

"But it is true," protested the other; "don't I know the good,

honest, steady man you've always been? Haven't I
sometimes felt proud that I had such a brother, and wished
enough that I'd been more like you? Why, I've told Kate
here about you often enough. Once I sent her round to the
shop, to have a look at the place and to see the kind of man
you were."

"But all the while you were under a mistake concerning

me," groaned Michael, feeling himself compelled to
confession. "What if I were to tell you that I am a man who
has robbed the fatherless and the widow?"

"I'd not believe it," returned his brother. "No, not if you said
it with your own lips, Michael."

"But it is true," he cried. And then brokenly, confusedly, he

told the story of how he had kept the bank-notes he had
found in the professor's book.
There was silence for some moments when he had ceased.
Then the sick man leaned forward and laid his wasted hand
on his brother's.

"Oh, I am so sorry for you, Michael," he whispered. "I know

what you must have suffered with that burden on your
heart. We are fellow-sinners."

"But I am the worse," said Michael. "'The first shall be last,'

the Bible says. In the pride of my heart I thought myself far
above you; but you would never have done a thing like
that. No, you have been a better man than I all along. It's
bad to be profligate; but I do believe it is worse to have a
hard, unloving, pharisaical heart."

"'If we confess our sins, He is faithful and just to forgive us

our sins,'" said the minister; and, as they all kept silence,
he began to pray aloud, expressing as he believed the
desire of each heart as he besought the Divine Father to
forgive and blot out the sins of the past.

And as he prayed, its burden fell from the spirit of Michael

Betts; his proud, hard heart was broken, and became as the
heart of a little child in its sorrow and contrition. It was the
birth-hour of a new life to him.

CHAPTER XII
MICHAEL'S HOUSE BECOMES A HOME
THE reconciliation so late effected between the brothers was
complete. Michael's one thought now was how he might, in
the brief time that remained to him, atone in some degree
for the coldness and indifference of years. He would fain
have removed his brother to a more comfortable dwelling;
but the medical man whom he brought to give his opinion
refused to sanction the attempt. The risk was too great. The
excitement and fatigue involved in the removal would
probably hasten the end. All that could be done was to give
as homelike an appearance as possible to the dreary room
in which the sufferer lay, and to provide him with every
comfort his condition demanded.

These efforts were not without result. His heart relieved of

the load which had pressed on it, and gladdened by his
brother's kindness, the sick man now enjoyed an ease of
mind which could not fail to influence beneficially his bodily
condition. He rallied wonderfully, and Kate even began to
hope that her father's life would yet be spared. But Michael
knew better. He was too old to be deceived by such hope.
He could see that death, though it had relaxed, had not
relinquished its grasp.

Every hour that Michael could spare, he spent by his

brother's bedside. He even engaged a young man to help
him with his business, that he might have more time at his
disposal. But the new interest he had found did not make
him forgetful of little Margery. Every day he sent to the
house to enquire how she was doing. He knew that Kate,
when she saw him, would be sure to question him eagerly
as to the report he had received. She was not so absorbed
by anxiety for her father as to be forgetful of the dear little
maiden who was ill, or of her mother, the kind friend to
whom she owed so much. She and Michael, whom she was
learning to call "uncle" now, a name which sounded
strangely in the ears of each, rejoiced together over the
good news of the little invalid which each day brought.
Margery was out of danger now and advancing steadily
towards health.

One pleasant April afternoon, Michael determined to walk

round to Mrs. Lavers' house ere he went to see his brother.
He had bought that morning of a dealer at his door a pot of
pretty pink cyclamen which he thought would please little
Margery, and he wished to carry it to her ere the flowers
began to fade.

As he was handing it to the servant at the door, Mrs. Lavers

came down stairs, and, seeing him, advanced to speak to
him.

"How very kind of you!" she said, as she admired the pink
blossoms. "Margery will be so pleased. I never knew such a
child as she is for flowers. Won't you come upstairs and see
her for a minute? I know she would like to see you, and all
fear of infection is past now."

Michael could not resist this invitation. He followed Mrs.

Lavers upstairs, treading as gently as he could.

Margery had been carried into the little sitting-room, and

lay on a sofa near the window. The room seemed full of
flowers; there were so many friends who loved to send
flowers to little Margery. She looked very fair and fragile as
she lay there clad in a little blue dressing-gown, with her
golden curls tossed in wild disorder on the pillow. Michael
was dismayed to see how white she was, save for the rosy
spot which glowed in each cheek, and how plainly the blue
veins showed on her wasted temples. Her favourite doll
reposed by her side, and open on her knee lay a book with
coloured pictures, which Michael recognised at a glance as
the "Pilgrim's Progress," with the purchase of which their
acquaintance had begun.

The smile with which Margery greeted him as soon as she

caught sight of him was reassuring to Michael. Surely no
child who was not getting well could look so radiant.

"Mr. Betts has just come up to say, 'How do you do?' to you,
dear," said her mother, "and see what lovely flowers he has
brought you."

"Oh, what beauties!" cried the child delightedly, "I haven't

had any like them, have I, mother? Thank you very, very
much, Mr. Betts. Please put them here, where I can see
them, mother."

"And are you feeling a little better, missy?" asked Michael.

"Oh yes, much better, thank you. Mother says I shall soon
be able to run about again, but I don't feel as if I should be
able to run fast for some time to come. I can't even play
with Noel yet. He seems so rough and noisy."

"I see you are able to amuse yourself with your book,"
Michael said.

"I like looking at the pictures," she replied, "but it tires me

to read much. It is funny you should come just now, Mr.
Betts, for I was only thinking of you a moment ago. I often
think of you when I look at my 'Pilgrim's Progress.'"

"That's because you bought it of me, I suppose, missy."

She shook her head, and her little face grew thoughtful.

"No, that's not the reason. It's because I never can tell to
what part of the book you belong. You can't be Christian or
Faithful, don't you see, because you say you never did
anything wrong in your life."

A deep, dull red suddenly suffused Michael's face.

"Don't say that, miss," he exclaimed in a tone of pain; "I

never ought to have said it. When I spoke so I did not know
myself."

"Then it wasn't true," said Margery.

"No, indeed, miss. If I'd spoken the truth, I should have

said that I'd been doing wrong all my life, and cherishing a
hard, proud, unloving spirit. I did not love God, nor even
my own brother, and you can't love one without loving the
other, you know, miss."

"I could never help loving Noel," said little Margery, "but
what did you do that was so wicked, Mr. Betts?"

"Don't ask me, miss. I would not like to tell you the bad
things I have done. Why, you've been one of the sufferers
by my wrong-doings. You ask your mother, and she'll tell
you how shamefully I wronged both her and you."

"No, no," said Mrs. Lavers, laying her hand gently on the old
man's arm, "Margery will never hear of that from me, Mr.
Betts. That's all over and done with. Don't speak of that
again, please."

Margery looked curiously from one to the other.

"Then you had a burden all the time, Mr. Betts?" she said.

"Ay, that I had, missy, and a burden which grew heavier

and heavier, when once I began to feel it."
"Why that was just like Christian," said little Margery,
looking much interested; "and have you lost your burden
now, Mr. Betts?"

"Yes, thank God, I have lost it, miss. I lost it as Christian

lost his, at the foot of the cross. In other words, missy, I
believe that God has forgiven me my sins for the sake of
Jesus Christ, who died for me and such sinners as me."

"Then you are very happy now," said little Margery.

"I'm happier, miss; yes, truly, I'm happier than ever I was
before, but I can't forget the past. I'd give anything to be
able to live the years of my life over again."

"What a number you would have to live!" said little Margery

thoughtfully. "For you're very old, aren't you, Mr. Betts?"

"Ay, missy, I'm old," he answered.

He felt old indeed when a little later, he found himself by his

brother's bedside. To think that that big, sturdy girl was the
daughter of his brother Frank! It did not seem so very long
ago that he had been "little Frank," his mother's spoiled
darling. He had always seemed so very much younger than
he, Michael, was; but now he lay there a haggard, wasted,
aged-looking man, drawing near to death. His feet were on
the brink of the dark river now. A change had set in during
the night. Michael needed not to be told that his brother
had but a few hours to live.

"I would not mind if it were not for Kate," the dying man
murmured, turning towards his daughter with love and
yearning in his glance. "I don't like to leave her alone in the
world."
"She shall not be alone," said Michael, "there shall always
be a home for her with me."

"Do you hear that, Kate?" the sick man asked with
brightening eyes. "Your uncle says you shall have a home
with him."

But the girl's look did not brighten.

"I don't care what becomes of me if you leave me, father,"

she said almost sullenly; then added, with passionate
emotion as she bent over him, "If only you would get better,
we might be so happy yet."

A lump rose in Michael's throat as he watched the girl's

look, and heard her words. No one had ever loved him like
that.

"Frank," he said slowly, "folks reckon me a well-to-do man;

but you're richer than I am. I've no one to love me, or to
care whether I live or die."

His brother turned his eyes on him and understood.

"She'll love you, Michael; she'll love you too, if you're good
to her. She is a good girl, is Kate, though she has had a
rough bringing up. I called her Katharine, you know, after
our mother. I've tried to tell her what our mother was, that
she might be like her. But I've been a poor father to her.
Mine has been a wasted, ill-spent life, and now I can but
give it back into the hands of God, trusting in His mercy
through Jesus Christ."

He lay back exhausted by the effort he had made in saying

so much. His life was ebbing fast. He said little more save in
feeble, broken utterances. The end came peacefully about
midnight, and the life which, with its errors and failures,
God alone could truly judge, was sealed by the hand of
death.

Michael took the weeping girl to his own home, and did his
best to comfort her. Mrs. Wiggins predicted that Kate would
not long live with her uncle. It seemed to her impossible
that so ill-assorted a pair could get on together, or a girl
accustomed to a free, independent life, put up with an old
man's fidgets. But the result proved her prediction false.
Kate was of a warm, affectionate nature, and pity
constrained her to be patient with the poor, lonely old man,
whilst he was disposed to cling at any cost to the only being
who belonged to him.

Their common interest in Mrs. Lavers and sweet little

Margery was a lasting bond of sympathy. Mrs. Lavers still
showed herself a true friend to Kate. She encouraged the
girl to come often to her house, and sometimes of an
evening, she and her children would "drop in" to pay a visit
to old Michael and his niece. The little ones loved to explore
the marvels of Mr. Betts' shop, and never ceased to wonder
at "the heaps and heaps of books." Mrs. Lavers was able to
give Kate many a useful hint which helped her to adapt
herself to her new position.

By-and-by, Kate came to take an intelligent interest in the

book trade, and developed quite a talent for mending and
covering dilapidated volumes. Customers were surprised to
find now in the shop a bright, quick, dark-eyed damsel, who
passed lightly to and fro, fetching and carrying books as her
uncle directed her. She learned his ways more quickly than
any youth would have done, and was careful to observe
them. She found her new work infinitely preferable to
making matches, and had a sense of responsibility in
connection with it, which heightened her self-respect, and
made life seem well worth living.