Module 8: Weather Forecasting

● A weather forecast is a prediction of the expected weather conditions for a particular

location over a certain period of time. It is based on the analysis of current atmospheric
conditions and the use of computer models to predict how these conditions are likely to
evolve in the near future.

● Weather forecasting is done by collecting and analyzing data from a variety of sources,
including weather satellites, weather balloons, radar systems, and ground-based
weather stations.

● Weather forecasts can include information about temperature, humidity, precipitation,

wind speed and direction, air pressure, and other atmospheric conditions.

● There are various types of weather forecasts, including short-term forecasts (covering a
period of hours to a few days), medium-term forecasts (covering a period of a week to a
few weeks), and long-term forecasts (covering a period of several months to a year or
more).

IMPORTANCE OF WEATHER FORECASTING

● Weather forecasting is important because it provides crucial information that helps

people plan their daily activities and make important decisions.

● Safety: Knowing about upcoming severe weather events such as hurricanes, tornadoes,
blizzards, and thunderstorms can help people take necessary precautions and prepare
for the worst. This can help save lives and prevent injuries.

● Agriculture: Farmers rely on weather forecasting to plan and adjust their planting,
harvesting, and irrigation schedules. Accurate weather information can help them avoid
crop losses due to weather-related issues.

● Transportation: Airlines, maritime, trucking and railway companies rely on weather

forecasting to avoid adverse weather conditions on their routes and maintain safety for
staff and passengers.

● Energy: Energy companies that generate electricity using sources such as wind and
solar power rely on weather forecasting to plan for optimal usage of their resources.

● Business: Numerous businesses depend on accurate weather forecasts to make crucial

decisions, particularly those who are weather-sensitive such as construction firms,
outdoor-recreation companies, event-management firms, and etc.
*READ THE CONTENT OF THE LINKS POSTED IN TEAMS UNDER THIS TOPIC, WEATHER
FORECASTING*

Weather Forecasting Tools and Charts

1. Weather Maps
● graphical representations of current weather conditions over a specific region or area

2. Meteogram
● a chart that provides detailed hour-by-hour weather information for a specific location
● allows users to visualize how weather conditions will change over time

3. Soundings
● vertical profiles of atmospheric conditions at a specific location
● typically obtained using weather balloons equipped with instruments
● helps meteorologist understand the stability of the atmosphere, identify layers of
moisture or instability, and predict the potential for severe weather

4. Infrared Satellite Images

● This capture the thermal radiation emitted by objects on Earth, including clouds and
land surfaces.
● Meteorologists can track storms, identify cloud type, and estimate temperature gradients
across a region.

5. Prognostic Charts
● graphical representation of predicted weather conditions over a specific time period
● Generated using numerical weather prediction models

6. Spaghetti Models
● A collection of forecast tracks generated by running multiple simulations of a weather
model with slightly different initial conditions
● Help predict where a hurricane will track
● The resulting tracks are displayed together on a single plot, resembling a “spaghetti” of
lines.

COMMONLY USED WEATHER FORECASTING METHODS

1. NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION ENSEMBLE FORECAST

● The routine daily forecasting of weather by the computer using mathematical equations
is known as numerical weather prediction.

2. Ensemble forecasting
● is a technique based on running several forecast models (or different versions of
a single model), each beginning with slightly different weather information to
approximate errors in the measurements.
 3. PERSISTENCE FORECAST
● Probably the easiest weather forecast to make is a persistence forecast, which is simply
a prediction that future weather will be the same as present weather

4. STEADY-STATE FORECAST
● The principle involved here is that surface weather systems tend to move in the same
direction and at approximately the same speed as they have been moving, providing no
evidence exists to indicate otherwise

5. ANALOG FORECAST
● Another form of weather forecasting. Basically, this method relies on the fact that existing
features on a weather chart (or a series of charts) may strongly resemble features that
produced certain weather conditions sometime in the past.

6. CLIMATOLOGICAL FORECAST
● A forecast based on the climate of a particular region is known as a climatological
forecast

TIME RANGE OF FORECAST

1. NOWCAST
● The prediction of weather conditions at the present time.

2. SHORT RANGE FORECAST

● The weather prediction that is done within several hours.

3. MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST

● The prediction of weather conditions ranging three to seven day

4. LONG RANGE FORECAST

● The prediction of weather conditions ranging 8 days or more

THE FORECAST FUNNEL

● The forecast funnel is a concept in which the forecasters'
attention is on large scale processes first, and then going to
smaller scales.

THE CHAOS THEORY IN METEOROLOGY

● Chaos theory (“state of disorder”) in meteorology is the study of how small changes in
atmospheric conditions can lead to large and unpredictable changes in weather patterns.
 ● In meteorology, the chaotic behavior of the atmosphere can make it difficult to accurately
predict weather conditions beyond a certain period of time. This is because small
variations in atmospheric conditions can amplify and interact with each other in complex
ways, leading to unpredictable outcomes.
● This theory was first introduced in 1960’s by Edward Lorenz, an American
mathematician and meteorologist who is often credited with discovering the butterfly
effect, which is the idea that small changes in initial conditions can have large effects on
the outcome of a system.

Butterfly Effect

● While the butterfly effect is often used as an

example of the unpredictability of complex systems,
it is important to note that not all small changes lead
to large effects. In many cases, systems are able to
absorb small perturbations without undergoing
significant changes.

● Nonetheless, the butterfly effect serves as a

reminder of the interconnectedness of the world
around us and the potential for small actions to have
big consequences.

● Overall, chaos theory has

become increasingly important in
meteorology over the years, as it
helps improve our understanding
of how small changes in
atmospheric conditions can lead
to large and unpredictable
changes in weather patterns.
This, in turn, helps us make better
weather predictions and prepare
for extreme weather events.