Calculating Poisson distribution for football results

The first step is to calculate the average number of goals each team is expected to score in a match. To
do this each team must be assigned a value for both attacking and defensive strength.

Calculating Attack and Defence strength

Using last season’s Premier League data, the first step is to establish the average number of goals scored
per game - for both home and away teams.

Average goals scored at home = total home goals scored in the season / total number of home games

Average goals scored away = total away goals scored in the season / total number of away games

The next step is to determine the average number of goals conceded per game - for both home and
away teams - which is the opposite to the average goals scored per game.

Calculating the home team's attack strength:

There are two steps to calculating a home team's attack strength.

Number of goals scored at home last season by the home team / number of home games played.

You can now calculate the attack strength of the home team by using the following equation:

Home team's average goals per home game / average home league goals per game

Calculating an away team's defensive strength:

Like above there are two steps to calculating an away team's defence strength.

To calculate the defence strength of the away team use the following equation:

Away team's average goals conceded per away game / average away league goals conceded per game

Projecting expected home team goals

You can use the following method to calculate the number of goals the home team may score:

Home team attack strength * away team defence strength * average number of home goals

Calculating the away team's attack strength:

Number of goals scored away last season by the away team / number of away games played.

You can now calculate the attack strength of the away team by using the following equation:

Away team's average goals per away game / average away league goals per game

Calculating a home team's defensive strength:

Home team's average goals conceded per home game / number of home games played.

To calculate the defence strength of home team use the following equation:

Home team's average goals conceded per home game / average home league goals per game
Projecting expected away team goals

You can use the following method to calculate the number of goals the away team may score:

Away team attack strength * home team defence strength * average number of away goals

Using Poisson distribution to predict football betting

Obviously no football match ends 2.016 vs. 0.653 - this is an average. Now need to convert these
averages into probability.

The next step is to enter the different goal outcomes (0-5 for our example, we ignore anything above
five goals as it’s highly unlikely) in the ‘Poisson Random Variable’ (k) class. Then input the projected
goals for the team.

The next step it to compare your Poisson result to the odds offered by bookmakers or exchanges.

Converting implied probability into betting odds

Poisson can be used to predict outcomes for a number of other betting markets. You can do this by
using the probabilities to create your own odds and compare it to an exchange or bookmaker odds.