Fashion Forecasters Predict a More

Trendless Future
Fashion Forecasters Predict a More Trendless Future

With Covid-19, everyone wants to know what is going to happen

next.

Trend forecasting is usually utilised in tandem with a brand’s own

data on purchases, inventory and social media tracking. But fashion
brands are in crisis mode. Starved of information due to the lack of
customer activity, brands are increasingly leaning on forecasters to
provide guidance on navigating the crisis. For the major firms like
WGSN and Stylus, that has meant more regular updates and in-
depth video meetings with clients to advise them on what the post-
Covid-19 world might look like (and what comes before that).

But the world has changed for forecasters, too, with the demands
made of the sector changing from providing seasonal trend analysis
to serving as a guide for how brands can best survive the current
morass. Many high profile events including Milan Design Week and
Pitti Uomo have been cancelled and, in many cases, they have had
to adjust the data points and information sources they are
prioritising. Fashion firms are keen to know more about the
consumer response in more open economies like China and hear
predictions about how people will behave after lockdowns end.

In spite of global disruptions, most forecasters say that the macro

trends they were anticipating — a consumer call for sustainability or
a move away from seasonality — have not drastically changed in
light of Covid-19. But they are accelerating at a faster than
anticipated pace, in effect putting trend forecasters into a more
pivotal role.

Increased reliance

Carla Buzasi, managing director at WGSN, says demand is up for

her company’s services as fashion firms work out how to navigate a
world that is significantly changed on both the production and
marketing sides.

“They are now looking at us as one of the main forms of data that
they have on the market, because they were quite, quite blind on
what’s happening to be frank,” says Célia Poncelin, chief marketing
officer at Paris-based forecaster Heuritech, which relies on AI-
driven insights drawn from analysing social media posts.

For most of these firms, that means speaking to clients and sending
them information much more regularly. Emily Gordon-Smith,
director of consumer product at London-headquartered trend
analysis firm Stylus, says that during Covid-19, she has spent much
more time with clients than she used to. “Last week, I think I did 13
presentations directly to different brands, retailers or different
businesses,” she says. That’s up from around a typical two client
meetings per week in April.

While their subscriber base would typically be reading through

reports that trend forecasters produce, many fashion firms now
want more detailed presentations and the chance to ask questions
about what is happening. Like many insight businesses, Stylus is
now running webinars with live Q&A sessions to its subscriber
base. These generally sit within current subscription models; raising
prices or cashing in on the situation would likely play badly with
clients and most of these forecasters rely on the fashion sector for
their income.

That is partially a function of the needs of clients changing.

Heuritech, who have switched from monthly to weekly updates at
no extra cost, are helping much more with short-term inventory
movement rather than the long-term planning that was the norm
before, says Poncelin.

Gordon-Smith says about 40 to 50 per cent of what they are

sending out is dealing with the here and now for brands, but that
Stylus have simultaneously seen a rising focus from clients on their
future-facing design directions, which look ahead 18 months to two
years into the future.
Working around cancelled events

Trade shows and fashion weeks are often staging points for many
of these forecasting firms, allowing them to see the direction
designers are heading in and gauge how social media influencers
are reacting to emerging trends. Many of these events have been
postponed or cancelled, with some of the biggest casualties thus far
including Milan Design Week, SXSW and Milan menswear show
Pitti Uomo.

Buzasi says the loss of these showcases has not prevented WGSN
from identifying the themes that were likely to emerge. The new
approach has been to reach out to keynote speakers and exhibitors
to find out what they were going to say or show and report it back to
WGSN’s subscribers. The biggest shift in terms of methodology has
been a greater reliance on consumer confidence indicators, as live
retail data dries up and brands drop fewer products.

The void that the lack of events has left in the calendar does have
to be filled, though. Gordon-Smith says Stylus has pivoted to
prioritise a number of cross-sector reports on subjects that are
particularly resonant right now, including homeware, sleep, sex,
hygiene and personal care. “That impacts fashion as well, in terms
of fabric innovations,” she says.

The main short-term focus for a number of fashion brands is looking

at geographical patterns. There is strong evidence that luxury
spending is reviving at a healthy tick in China and Bain & Co.
predict that the country is likely to grab an even greater share of the
luxury market at a much faster rate than anticipated, as Western
economies go through sluggish recoveries.

Shifting where in the world trend forecasting is focused is not too

much of a lift for those with automated processes, say Heuritech,
whose China recommendations are driven by machine-learning
analyses of Weibo usage by a representative panel of local
consumers that numbers in the hundreds of thousands (different
social media platforms are used in other geographies). “We analyse
1.5 million to 2 million images a day,” says Heuritech CEO Tony
Pinville. “We can analyse a lot more, but it’s just a matter of time
and cost.”

Post-Covid-19 predictions

Beyond the crisis rooms, many brands are starting to look and plan
ahead. Trend forecaster and consultant Geraldine Wharry cautions
against making any rash predictions about how the industry is likely
to look when lockdowns and social-distancing measures end.

“The [trend forecasting] industry exploded after the Great

Recession when people started using it as a risk management
service to ensure they were making the right decisions,” she says.

Wharry adds that this resulted in similar collections and restricted

the individual creative voices of designers. Nevertheless, the former
fashion designer says that recommendations she would make to
firms now have not been drastically altered by the crisis. A top
recommendation is that the fashion industry is going to have to find
a more sustainable mode of being. “These are things that I’ve been
telling you for years,” she says.

Forecast analysts agreed that the shock to the system caused by

the Covid-19 outbreak could force brands to reevaluate their
business models. With fashion shows cancelled, stores closed and
a growing buildup of unsold inventory, some brands might have no
choice but to change the way they operate in order to survive.

“This pandemic has brought to light that fashion seasons are kind of
nonsense,” says Gordon-Smith. She anticipates a move to more
trendless and seasonless approaches by fashion brands, with
collections driven by the individual vision of the brand rather than
one tapping into shifting seasonal trends. She cites Gucci as one
current example of this. “There are clients who are interested in this
idea right now and evolving their own brand identity into something
that’s stronger and more individual.”

It’s hard to know how consumers will be feeling post-Covid-19, and

consumer outlook isn’t uniform across geographies. Heuritech are
currently working on an analysis of whether there have been any
significant shifts in social media content in the countries emerging
out of lockdown.

Nevertheless, brands that are maintaining a non-product related

community or have built a model that they view as sustainable
seem to be more positive about the situation than those more tied
into the traditional fashion calendar. For Buzasi, design with
purpose is the ultimate aim. “If the fashion industry can embrace
this then everyone will benefit: the consumer, brands’ balance
sheets and the planet.