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Adriano Polpo (UWA) STAT 1400

 STAT 1400 - Statistics for Science

stat1400-ems@uwa.edu.au

Contributors to lecture material: Adrian Baddeley, Adriano Polpo, John Bamberg, Ed Cripps, Julie Marsh, Kevin Murray,
Gordon Royle, and Berwin Turlach.

Adriano Polpo (UWA) STAT 1400

Ways to collect data

Controlled experiment:
The experimental conditions are controlled by the researcher.

Observational study:
The experimental conditions are not controlled by the researcher.

We will introduce these two data gathering techniques in the

context of two recent scientific papers.
Controlled Experiment

Ajiro, Y., Tokuhashi, Y., Matsuzaki, H., Ogawa, T.

Impact of Passive Smoking on the Bones of Rats.
Orthopedics 33 (2) (2010) 90–95
Controlled experiment

Research Question
Does passive smoking cause osteoporosis?
Experimental Design
Take two groups of rats
One group (“treatment group”) is forced to breathe cigarette
smoke
The other group (“control group”) breathes normal air
Afterward, measure the amount of osteoporosis in each rat
Drawing conclusions

Suppose that
smoking is the only variable in which the rats di↵er, and
the smoking rats exhibit more osteoporosis.

Would this prove that passive smoking causes osteoporosis?

Smoking rats

In this experiment, the experimental units were

20 rats of the same age, breed, sex and diet

In the experiment
10 rats “smoked” the equivalent of 20-per-day
10 rats breathed normal air
Smoking rats
Smoking rats

After exposure, the rats were “sacrificed” and their bone

structure was examined.

Apparently, “All rats received humane care in accordance with

the Guide for Animal Experimentation and Handling of
Laboratory Animals of Nihon University School of Medicine.”
Smoking rats, contd.

Osteocyte size in non-smoking (left) and smoking (right) rats.

“The size of osteocytes in the smoke-exposed animals was

approximately one-fourth that in the control group”
Smoking rats, contd.

Authors’ conclusions:
“Our results suggest that smoking may have a direct im-
pact on bone structure and may cause osteoporosis.”

There is a notion of causality in the conclusion: forcing rats to

smoke caused a higher tendency to osteoporosis.

Of course, the question we really want to ask is

Does smoking cause osteoporosis in humans?

Can we perform a similar controlled experiment?

Observational study

Impossible to do the “smoking rats” study with humans.

As a result is it necessary to do an observational study instead.

In an observational study, researchers observe the e↵ect of a risk

factor without trying to control those exposed to it.

In other words, take a sample including both smokers and

non-smokers and measure the prevalence of osteoporosis.
Observational study—Example

Fatima, M., Nawaz, H., Kassi, M., Rehman, R., Kasi,

P. M., Afghan, A. K., and Baloch, S. N.
Determining the risk factors and prevalence of
osteoporosis using quantitative ultrasonography in Pak-
istani adult women.
Singapore Medical Journal 50(1) (2009) 20–28
Smoking humans

Define the research question:

What factors a↵ect the risk of osteoporosis among Pak-
istani women?

Survey of 334 Pakistani women older than 20 years.

Bone health was inspected using ultrasound.

Each woman was interviewed to assess potential risk factors,

of which smoking is one.
Drawing conclusions

Suppose that the women who smoke are found to have a

higher rate of osteoporosis.
Does this prove that smoking causes osteoporosis?
No, because the two groups of women are not equivalent in
every other respect (e.g., diet, family history, a✏uence)
Associations

All we can say is that there is an association between variables.

This can be due to

A causal relationship
A lurking variable
Coincidence

Correlation is not the same as causation

Smoking humans

The study identified several risk factors associated with

osteoporosis:
Body Mass Index
Smoking (pack-years),
Family history (of osteoporosis)
Poverty
Lurking variable

In this case there is a strong candidate for a lurking variable,

namely poverty.

People of low income and/or low education are considerably more

likely to be smokers.

But people of low income and/or low education more likely to

have a poor diet,
be overweight,
get insufficient exercise.

So perhaps poverty is the root cause underlying a range of factors

that increase the risk of osteoporosis.
Correlation and Causation

Does eating less margarine improve your marriage?

https://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
Controlled Experiment Terminology

Experimental Units: the people, animals or things on which

the experiment is conducted
Response: quantity that represents the outcome of the
experiment, for each experimental unit
Treatment: one of the experimental conditions that can be
assigned to an experimental unit
Smoking Rats

For the smoking rats,

The experimental units were the 20 rats
The treatments were “smoking” / “non-smoking”
The response was the osteocyte size.
Example Data

Unit Treatment Response

Rat Group Osteoporosis
1 Smoke 25.2
2 Smoke 21.3
3 Non-smoke 13.6
4 Non-smoke 10.8
.. .. ..
. . .
Summary so far

Experimental Study
The researcher influences the experimental units by allocating
di↵ering treatments to them and measuring their response.
Observational Study
The researcher measures the relevant characteristics of the
experimental units, without influencing them.
Survey
The researcher determines the values of the attributes by
asking the participants.
Some authors view surveys as a type of observational study.
Examples

Experimental Study
Fertilising four agricultural plots with four di↵erent fertilisers,
planting sunflowers, and measuring how well they grow.
Observational Study
Counting the matings of the elephants.
Survey
A market-research company seeking opinions on co↵ee
drinking habits.
Studies

For each type of study, there are

principles to adhere to, and
pitfalls to avoid,
in order to obtain a well-designed study.

Mostly these are common sense in technical language.

Confounding

If two treatments in the study are always given together, then we

cannot separate their e↵ects, and they are confounded.

Cow Farm Supplement Weight gain

1 Dingley Vitamins 25.2
2 Dingley Vitamins 21.3
3 Bramble No Vitamins 13.6
4 Bramble No Vitamin 10.8
.. .. ..
. . .

We can’t tell whether the increased weight gain was due to the vitamin
supplement or to the farm.
Lecturer Style
The Outcome
Confounding variables

There are many potential confounding variables.

Winter vs Spring?
Lecturer confidence?
Di↵erent cohort?

So this is a nice anecdote, but not a statistical result.

Design of an Observational study

There is more terminology pertaining to observational studies.

Population
The entire group of individuals in whom we are interested
Sample
That part of the population that we observe in the study.

The goal is to make inferences about the entire population while

measuring only a (small) fraction of the population.

In order to make inferences about the entire population, the

sample should be representative of the population as a whole.
The Four Principles

Control
Control the variation of extraneous factors.
Randomize
Random selection minimises e↵ects of unknown sources of
variation.
Replicate
Repeated experiments and those with larger treatment groups
are more likely to be accurate.
Block
Significant, but uncontrollable, sources of variation can be
minimised through blocking.
Principles of a Well Designed Experiment
Principles of a Well Designed Experiment
Principles of a Well Designed Experiment
Principles of a Well Designed Experiment
Principles of a Well Designed Experiment