Probability distribution using Bayesian inference has been applied in models that approximate

human thinking processes, however, the resulting large number of hypotheses becomes
prohibitive. By applying a related principle, the Monte Carlo method, probabilistic inferences
may be computed. Explain your understanding of how this might be considered in the analysis
and design to establish a functioning neural network.

Probabilistic Inferences in a Neural Network

IBM Technology (2022) explains that Monte Carlo (MC) simulation is a crucial tool
often used to solve mathematical problems by estimating probabilities of outcomes in an
uncertain event (Park & Jun, 2022). It is a probabilistic technique to predict future outcomes
based on observations of past events (Warren‐Hicks & Butcher, 1996). In this discussion post,
we will discuss an example that uses the MC technique and explains how it establishes a
functioning neural network.
MC Example
Why MC
Before we proceed to the example, it is vital for us to understand why researchers often
choose MC over Bayesian or integrate MC into their Bayesian statistics. When we look at the
definition of probability, many researchers simply state that it describes the plausibility of an
outcome. Bayesian statistics redefines this definition to the plausibility of statements. However,
Koch (2018) illustrates that often these problems have unknown parameters (random variables)
and they are fixed quantities in traditional statistics, which is not found in this intuitive approach.
Hence, researchers suggest the integration of MC to generate rando, variables from given
distributions (Koch, 2018).
Application in the Mining Industry
One industry that shows the successful usage of MC for research purposes is the mining
industry. One common method used for mining is blasting, which helps remove rocks through an
explosion. Although this method eases the task of moving difficult rocks from the path, there are
several undesirable factors. One of these may include having rock fragments travel further than
the safety area and causing unwanted harm to humans or other facilities. Balakrishnan & Piyush
(2021) state that this phenomenon is known as fly rock. There are several scholarly articles and
journals in which researchers use different empirical equations to predict data on fly rock
phenomena. Unfortunately, the performance of these models has produced unsatisfactory results
in the real world in owning to the lack of precision and scientifically (Kulekci & Yilmaz, 2018;
Kulekci & Yilmaz, 2019). Subsequently, Zhou et a. (2020) present two intelligent methods to
predict and simulate the ricks of fly rock. This study uses 260 samples of rocks thrown from a
mine in Malaysia. The first method was to use a non-linear model (e.g., multiple regression
model) and artificial neural network (ANN) models to develop relationship between dependent
and interdependent variables. Using this ANN model to predict fly rock in a mine, MC was
applied to show a level of accuracy in the fly rock range during a mining operation. In the end,
these methods aided in identifying that that the range of the fly rock phenomena does not go
beyond 331m (with ninety percent accuracy).
Conclusion
In conclusion, this discussion post uses an example that allows researchers to understand
how the MC analysis and design can help with risk assessment and establish a functioning neural
network. If allows machines to process previous data, make distributions of it and use it to
predict future outcomes. Therefore, this shows how the MC simulation can help machines build
human like learning processes to solve problems. Cognitive systems engineers can explore this
topic further by investigating how this technique may be effective in conducting risk assessment
across other domains.

References
Balakrishnan, V., & Piyush, R. A. (2021). An Overview of Flyrock and its Prediction in Surface Mine
Blasting using Soft Computing Techniques. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Üniversitesi Fen ve Mühendislik
Bilimleri Dergisi, 2(2), 105-119. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1941187

IBM Technology (2022). What is monte carlo simulation? [Video]. YouTube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TqhmX92P6U

Koch, K. R. (2018). Bayesian statistics and Monte Carlo methods. Journal of Geodetic Science, 8(1), 18-
29. https://doi.org/10.1515/jogs-2018-0003

Kulekci, G., & Yilmaz, A.O. (2018). Roadway tunnel construction with drilling-blasting method;
Gümüşhane environment road example. International Journal on Mathematic, Engineering and
Natural Sciences, 4, 34-39.

Kulekci, G., & Yilmaz, A. (2019). Investigation of the effect of activities in a coper mine on
historical works, an example of Gümüşhane Süleymaniye. Journal of Underground Resources,
16(8), 1-14.
Park, S., & Jun, S. (2022). Cognitive Artificial Intelligence Using Bayesian Computing Based on Hybrid
Monte Carlo Algorithm. Applied Sciences, 12(18), 9270. https://doi.org/10.3390/app12189270

Warren‐Hicks, W. J., & Butcher, J. B. (1996). Monte Carlo analysis: classical and Bayesian
applications. Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal, 2(4), 643-649.
https://doi.org/10.1080/10807039609383642

Zhou, J., Aghili, N., Ghaleini, E. N., Bui, D. T., Tahir, M. M., & Koopialipoor, M. (2020). A Monte Carlo
simulation approach for effective assessment of flyrock based on intelligent system of neural
network. Engineering with Computers, 36(2), 713-723. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00366-019-00726-z