CHAPTER 7

PROBABILITY
 LECTURE 3 OF 6

LEARNING OUTCOMES :
At the end of the lesson, students should be able to:
e) find the conditional probability and independent events.
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
Independent Events
A Tree Diagram: is a wonderful way to picture what is going on, so let's build one for
our marbles example.
1
4
2
5 3
4 2
4
3
5
2
4
Notation
P(A) means "Probability Of Event A"
In our marbles example Event A is "get a Blue Marble first" with a probability
of 2/5:
1 And Event B is "get a Blue Marble second"
P(A) 4 B ... but for that we have 2 choices:
2 A
5 3 B’ • If we got a Blue Marble first the chance
4 is now 1/4
2
3 4 B • If we got a Red Marble first the chance
5 A’ is now 2/4

2 B’
4
P(B|A) means "Event B given Event A"
So the probability of getting 2 blue marbles is:
P(B|A) 1
P(A) 4

2
5
And we write it as
Example 1

There are 12 red balls and 8 green balls in a bucket. Two balls are taken
out in sequence without replacement. By using a tree diagram, find the
probability that
(a) the first ball is red
(b) the second one is red if the first is red
(c) the second one is red if the first is green
(d) the second one is red
(e) the first one is red if the second is red
There are 12 red balls and 8 green balls in a bucket. Two balls are taken out in
sequence without replacement.
11
19
R2

12
R1
20 8 G2 R – Red ball
12 R 19 G – Green ball
8G 12
8 19 R2
20 G1
7 G2
19
find the probability that 𝑃 𝑅2|𝑅1
𝑃 𝑅1 11
(a) the first ball is red R2
19
12 3
𝑃 𝑅1 = = 12
R1
20 5
20 8 G2
(b) the second one is red if the first is red 19
𝑃 𝑅2|𝐺1
11 12
𝑃 𝑅2|𝑅1 = R2
19 8 19
20 G1
(c) the second one is red if the first is green
12 7 G2
𝑃 𝑅2|𝐺1 = 19
19
find the probability that
11
(d) the second one is red R2
19
𝑃 𝑅2 = 𝑃 𝑅1 ∩ 𝑅2 + 𝑃 𝐺1 ∩ 𝑅2 12
R1
20 8 G2
12 11 8 12 19
= × + ×
20 19 20 19 12
3 8 19 R2
=
5 20 G1
7 G2
19
find the probability that
11
(e) the first one is red if the second is red R2
19
𝑃 𝑅1 ∩ 𝑅2 12
R1
𝑃 𝑅1|𝑅2 =
𝑃 𝑅2 20 8 G2
19
12 11
× 12
= 20 19 19 R2
3 8
5 20 G1
11 7 G2
= 19
19
CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY

𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
𝑃 𝐴𝐵 = ,𝑃 𝐵 > 0
𝑃 𝐵

𝑃 𝐵∩𝐴
𝑃 𝐵𝐴 = ,𝑃 𝐴 > 0
𝑃 𝐴

P (A | B ) is read “the probability of A, given B”

Example 2
1 1 1
Given 𝑃 𝐴 = ,𝑃 𝐵 = and 𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 =
3 4 2

Find a) 𝑃 𝐴|𝐵 b) 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 c)𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′ 𝑑)𝑃(𝐴|𝐵′ )

𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
𝑃 𝐴 ∪ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴 + 𝑃 𝐵 − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
1 1 1
= + − 𝑃(𝐴 ∩ 𝐵)
2 3 4
1
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 =
12
 1 1 1
𝑃 𝐴 = ,𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 =
3 4 12 1
𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 =
a) 𝑃 𝐴|𝐵 b) 𝑃 𝐵 𝐴 12

𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 𝑃 𝐵∩𝐴
𝑃 𝐴|𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴 =
𝑃(𝐵) 𝑃(𝐴)
1 1
𝑃 𝐴|𝐵 = 12 𝑃 𝐵|𝐴 = 12
1 1
4 3
1 1
= =
3 4
c)𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′ 1 1 1
𝑃 𝐴 = 𝑃 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵 =
3 4 12
1
𝑃 𝐴∩ 𝐵′ =
4 B B’

𝑑)𝑃(𝐴|𝐵′ ) A 1 1 1
12 4 3
𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵′
𝑃 𝐴|𝐵′ = A’
𝑃(𝐵′)
1 1
4 1 1
𝑃 𝐴|𝐵′ =
3 =3 4
4
Example 3
In a college, 12% of the students are left-handed, 15% of the students wear
glasses and 3% are both left-handed and wear glasses.
a) Given that a student wears glasses, find the probability that the student is
left-handed.
b) What is the probability that the student wears glasses if he is left-
handed?

Let L : left-handed students G : students wear glasses

P(L) = 0.12 ; P(G) = 0.15 ; P(L  G) = 0.03

 P(L) = 0.12 ; P(G) = 0.15 ; P(L  G) = 0.03

a) Given that a student wears glasses, find the probability that the student is
left-handed.
𝑃 𝐿∩𝐺 0.03 1
𝑃 𝐿|𝐺 = = =
𝑃(𝐺) 0.15 5

b) What is the probability that the student wears glasses if he is left-

handed?
𝑃 𝐿∩𝐺 0.03 1
𝑃 𝐺|𝐿 = = =
𝑃(𝐿) 0.12 4
INDEPENDENT EVENTS

Two events are said to be independent if the occurrence of one event does
not affect the probability of another event occurring.
An example of two independent events is as follows; say you rolled a die
and flipped a coin.

If events A and B are independent, then

P(A|B) = P(A) and P(B|A) = P(B)

From Conditional Event;

𝑃 𝐴∩𝐵
𝑃 𝐴|𝐵 =
𝑃(𝐵)

𝑃 𝐴 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) × 𝑃(𝐵)

So, we arrive at the ‘and’ rule for the independent events

P(A and B) = P(A) . P(B)

P(A  B) = P(A) . P(B)

Two events A and B are independent if and only if P(A  B) = P(A) . P(B)
Example 4
A, B and C are three events such that A and B are independent whereas
A and C are mutually exclusive. Given P(A) = 0.4 and P(B) = 0.2 ,
P(C) = 0.3 and P(B  C) = 0.1.
Find a) P(A  B) b) P(C | A’)
Solution
𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑩 = 𝑷 𝑨 × 𝑷(𝑩) (independent)
𝑷 𝑨 ∩ 𝑪 = 𝟎 (mutually exclusive)
a) P(A  B) = P(A) + P(B) – P(A  B)
= P(A) + P(B) – P(A)∙P(B)
= 0.4 + 0.2 – (0.4)(0.2)
= 0.52
b) P(C | A’) P(A) = 0.4 , P(C) = 0.3
𝑃 𝐶 ∩ 𝐴′ A and C are mutually exclusive
𝑃 𝐶|𝐴′ =
𝑃(𝐴′)
0.3
= C C’
0.6
1 A 0 0.4 0.4
=
2
A’ 0.3 0.3 0.6

0.3 0.7 1
Example 5

There are 60 students in the sixth form of a certain school. Mathematics is

studied by 27 of them, Biology by 20 and 22 students study neither
Mathematics nor Biology.

a) Find the probability that a randomly selected student studies both

Mathematics and Biology.

b) Determine whether the event ‘studying mathematics’ is statistically

independent of the event ‘studying Biology’.
There are 60 students in the sixth form of a certain school. Mathematics is
studied by 27 of them, Biology by 20 and 22 students study neither
Mathematics nor Biology.
Let M = event studying Mathematics
B = event studying Biology

B B’

M 9 18 27

M’ 11 22 33

20 40 60
 B B’
a) Find the probability that a randomly
selected student studies both M 9 18 27
Mathematics and Biology.
M’ 11 22 33
9
𝑃 𝑀∩𝐵 =
60 20 40 60
3
=
20
b) Determine whether the event B B’
‘studying mathematics’ is statistically
independent of the event ‘studying M 9 18 27
Biology’. 22
3 M’ 11 33
𝑃 𝑀∩𝐵 =
20 20 40 60
27 20
𝑃 𝑀 × 𝑃(𝐵) = ×
60 60
3
=
20
∴ 𝑃 𝑀 ∩ 𝐵 = 𝑃 𝑀 × 𝑃(𝐵)
So, the event ‘studying mathematics’ is statistically independent of the
event ‘studying Biology’.
Example 6

500 persons (male and female) were asked if they are in favour of or
against capital punishment. Of the 300 males, 125 are in favour, whereas
145 females are against. If a person is selected at random from these 500
persons, find the probability that the person is

a) in favour given female

b) in favour or female

Are the events ‘male’ and ‘in favour’ independent? Are they mutually
exclusive? Give explanations.
500 persons (male and female) were asked if they are in favour of or
against capital punishment. Of the 300 males, 125 are in favour, whereas
145 females are against. If a person is selected at random from these 500
persons, find the probability that the person is

Let event R = in favour, G= against, F = female, M = Male

R G

F 55 145 200
M 125 175 300

180 320 500

find the probability that the person is R G
a) in favour given female
F 55 145 200
55
𝑃 𝑅|𝐹 = 175
200 M 125 300
1
= 180 320 500
20
b) in favour or female
𝑃 𝑅 ∪ 𝐹 = 𝑃 𝑅 + 𝑃 𝐹 − 𝑃(𝑅 ∩ 𝐹)

180 200 155 13

= + − =
500 500 500 20
Are the events ‘male’ and ‘in favour’ independent? Are they mutually
exclusive? Give explanations.
R G
125 1
𝑃 𝑅∩𝑀 = =
500 4 F 55 145 200
180 300 27
𝑃 𝑅 × 𝑃(𝑀) = × = M 125 175 300
500 500 125

𝑃 𝑅 ∩ 𝑀 ≠ 𝑃 𝑅 × 𝑃(𝑀) 180 320 500

Thus, the events ‘male’ and ‘in favour’ are not independent
125
𝑃 𝑅∩𝑀 = ≠0
500
Thus, the events ‘male’ and ‘in favour’ are not mutually exclusive.