FUTURE

POSSIBILITIES
INDEX 2024
3

Contents

Foreword 4

Acknowledgments 6

Executive Summary 7

Chapter 1: 2024 index results 12

Chapter 2: How countries leverage global trends 28

Appendix: How the FPI was developed 37

Data summary 47

References 57

Explore the country and trend data

at futurepossibilitiesindex.com

or scan the QR code here:

4

Foreword

Today’s reality is characterized by many transformations that are re-shaping

economies, industries, communities and nations. Although they create much
uncertainty and risks to which everyone must adjust, they also give rise to
countless possibilities for the development of businesses, countries and societies.
Humankind has unprecedented scope to create a better future on the
back of these transformations. But we need to create the right conditions in
each country if the world is to seize the opportunities to improve growth and
wellbeing and advance toward the Sustainable Development Goals. We need
to devote more attention to identifying and building the capacities required to
grasp opportunities as they emerge.
This is why we created the Future Possibilities Index: to showcase a
new way of thinking about business opportunities, economic and social
development, and help countries to leverage these ongoing transformations
as they create a better future for all. By measuring how 70 countries are
leveraging six important transformational trends, we hope to provide a tool to
guide businesses in their investment decisions and governments in developing
their long-term strategies. This is just the first step in a longer journey and we
expect the approach to evolve over time.
We would like to thank the United Arab Emirates Government for initiating
the project and their continued support.

Margareta Drzeniek, Managing Partner, Horizon Group

Lucy Hurst, Research Director, Newsweek Vantage
Nigel Holloway, Editorial Director, Newsweek Vantage
5
6
Acknowledgments
Knowledge Partner
We would like to acknowledge and thank our Knowledge Partner,
Phronesis Partners for their support and contribution to the survey and
data research.
Project Advisors
The following people and organizations have participated in discussion
panels over the past year that have been instrumental to the
development of the 2024 Future Possibilities Index.
We thank them for their time, expertise and advice. The opinions
expressed in this report are those of Horizon Group and Newsweek
Vantage.
Davos, January 18, 2023 Roundtable discussion
H.E. Ohood Al Roumi, Minister of State for Government Development
and the Future, UAE
Sara Pantuliano, Chief Executive, Overseas Development Institute, UK
Sasha Kapadia, Director, Global Advisory, Overseas Development
Institute, UK
Simon Winter, Executive Director, Syngenta Foundation, Switzerland
Cynthia Hansen, Executive Director, Innovation Foundation, Switzerland
Sachin Dev Duggal, Chief Executive Officer, Builder.ai, UK
Sergio Mujica, Secretary General, ISO, Switzerland
Naoko Ishii, Director, Center for Global Commons, Institute of Future
Initiative, University of Tokyo, Japan
Erik Berglof, Chief Economist, Asian Infrastructure Investment
Bank, China
October 4, 2023 Expert Panel discussion
Cedric Dupont, Professor, International Relations and Political Science,
Graduate Institute, Geneva, Switzerland
Martin Koehring, Global Director of Impact, Forum for the Future, UK
Rachel Kyte, Director, Private Infrastructure Development Group, USA
Lynette Lym, Global Director for Communications and Knowledge,
Resilient Cities Network, Singapore
Gopal Patel, Director, Bhumi Global, New York, USA
Atraf Shehab, CEO, Centennial Lab, UAE
Lutfey Siddiqi, Adjunct Professor, Risk Management Institute, National
University of Singapore, Singapore
Regional Partner
Eurasia Competitiveness Institute, Belgium
We would also like to thank the attendees of the FPI workshop held on
April 19, 2019 at the Royal Institution, London, who helped design the
foundational framework for the study (titles reflect their affiliations at the
time of the workshop):
Rolf Alter, Economist and Senior Fellow, Hertie School of Government;
Andrew Bishop, Partner & Global Head of Policy Research, Signum
Global Advisors; Mark Malloch Brown, Chairman, SGO Group; Anne
Louise Burnett, Manager, Centre for Global Finance & Technology,
Imperial College Business School; Piers Cumberlege, Chair, Straightview;
Sándor Fülöp, Former Commissioner of Future Generations, Government
of Hungary; Mais Haddadin Finn, Strategic Advisor, Topan AG; Richard
Ian Kitney, Professor of BioMedical Systems Engineering, Imperial
College; Chris Langdon, Author, Thinking the Unthinkable; Wolfgang
Lehmacher, Senior Supply Chain Executive; Andrew Likierman, Professor
of Management Practice in Accounting, London Business School; Irene
Mia, Global Editorial Director, Economist Intelligence Unit; Tiffany Misrahi,
Director of Policy, World Travel & Tourism Council; Johannes Nutinen,
Head of Radical Strategy Team, Demos Helsinki; Pan Pan, Founder,
Pantèra Ventures; Marco Maria Pedrazzo, Head of Strategy, Carlo Ratti
Associati and MIT Senseable City Lab; Anand Phanse, Chief Financial
Officer, Billon Group; Lucien Randazzese, Director, Innovation Strategy
and Policy, SRI International; Frederik Cyrus Roeder, Managing Director,
Consumer Choice Center; Jodie Roussel, Group Head Smart Grid, Planair
SA; Jeffrey Saunders, Partner, Behavioural Strategy; and Jakob von Uexkull,
Founder, World Future Council
FPI Horizon Group/Vantage Research Team 2023/24
The 2024 research program for the Future Possibilities Index and report
has been developed by the teams at the Horizon Group, Switzerland and
Vantage Research (in association with Newsweek Vantage), US.
We would like to thank the following team members from both
organizations who have contributed to this year’s effort:
Vantage Research/Newsweek Vantage
Maria-Luiza Apostolescu
Horizon Group
Harry Langer, Ilaria Marchese, Nigel Ndlovu, Disha Sharma, Shuvasish
Sharma, Sheana Tambourgi
Special thanks to Atraf Shehab, CEO, Centennial Lab
7

Executive Summary

How countries can leverage future possibilities

For the past 20 years, significant changes have transformed our daily lives,
altered by a range of factors including technological advancements, the
rise of social media platforms, climate change awareness, the convenience
of e-commerce, and the growing interconnectedness of the world. These
changes are linked and their impact can vary widely based on factors such as
geographic location, socio-economic status, and individual preferences.
Going forward, these transformations provide a foundation for future
opportunities. The question is, what can countries do to leverage them for
their people’s social and economic wellbeing?

Six transformational trends

Among the many lessons from the pandemic is the value of re-examining
fundamentals and the necessity of building back better.
The Future Possibilities Index (FPI) does this by examining six transformational
trends that are creating possibilities and the factors that determine a
country’s readiness and capacity to leverage these trends. The six global
trends have been selected due to their systemic nature, global relevance, and
likelihood of impact over the next 5-10 years.
All have emerged from a combination of new business models,
technologies, and changes in attitudes and behaviors. The six trends are the
Exabyte Economy, the Wellbeing Economy, the Net Zero Economy, the
Circular Economy, the BioGrowth Economy and the Experience Economy.
(See box 1 on page 9 for details).

The FPI covers 70 countries which account for more than 90% of global GDP.
The FPI’s overall goal is to understand each country’s capacity to leverage these
six trends.
8 Executive Summary 

Future Possibilities: Total expected This is done by considering three main areas of readiness:
value by 2030 • Government Strategy and Policy which considers the extent to which the
transformation is led by government strategy, policy and implementation.
Transformational Value
Trends (USD) • Industry Strength which considers the level of the country’s capacity to
leverage the trend by looking at industry-specific measures such as the
Exabyte Economy > 8 trillion
establishment of the sector, the level of innovation and growth potential.
Wellbeing Economy > 7 trillion • Core capacity which measures the extent to which a country has the
Net Zero Economy > 2.3 trillion structures – policies, institutions, and other factors – to seize the more

Circular Economy > 4.5 trillion advanced opportunities each trend offers.

BioGrowth Economy > 1 trillion

Experience Economy > 6.5 trillion

Key findings of the 2024 Future Possibilities Index

Country results:
• The United Kingdom ranks first on the FPI, owing to a strong, all-round
performance, followed very closely by the Denmark, and United States.
• The others in the top 10 are Japan, South Korea, and four European
economies.
• Among emerging markets, China (19th) leads, followed by Brazil (30th) and
Malaysia (32nd). Ecuador, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Algeria, and Pakistan are
among those countries that have room for improvement.
• UAE (23rd) ranks the highest in Middle East and North Africa region. Brazil
tops the list in Latin America and the Caribbean. South Africa (50th) leads
the Sub-Saharan African region.
• Leaders per trend:
Exabyte – United States
Wellbeing – Singapore
Net Zero – Denmark
Circular – United Kingdom
BioGrowth – Germany
Experience – United States
• Brazil has the highest overall ranking (30th) relative to its core capacity
(51st), due to its higher score in the trends category (22st).
• Conversely, Hong Kong (22nd) performs less well overall than its core
capacity (4th) would suggest, with a relatively weak score in the trends
category (26th).
• High-income countries in the bottom half of the FPI are Saudi Arabia (36th),
Slovak Republic (37th), Chile (42nd), Latvia (44th), Uruguay (45th), Bahrain
(53rd), Oman (54th), Kuwait (59th) and Panama (62nd).
9 Executive Summary 

2024 FPI Ranking

FPI Ranking Country FPI Score FPI Ranking Country FPI Score
(0-100) (0-100)

1 United Kingdom 72.06 36 Saudi Arabia 55.14

2 Denmark 71.28 37 Slovak Republic 54.68

3 United States 71.23 38 Thailand 54.05

4 Netherlands 70.86 39 Turkey 54.02

5 Germany 70.77 40 Mexico 53.98

6 Korea, Rep. of 70.46 41 Colombia 53.46

7 Japan 69.88 42 Chile 53.33

8 Sweden 69.70 43 Indonesia 53.27

9 Switzerland 69.52 44 Latvia 53.24

10 France 69.43 45 Uruguay 52.69

11 Canada 69.42 46 Bulgaria 51.79

12 Singapore 69.40 47 Romania 51.24

13 Finland 68.33 48 Argentina 51.23

14 Belgium 67.49 49 Viet Nam 50.42

15 Norway 66.98 50 South Africa 50.29

16 Italy 66.59 51 Philippines 48.38

17 Australia 66.58 52 Egypt 48.33

18 Spain 66.30 53 Bahrain 47.84

19 China 66.26 54 Oman 47.50

20 Austria 65.94 55 Costa Rica 46.32

21 Ireland 64.16 56 Jordan 46.09

22 Hong Kong SAR 63.08 57 Kazakhstan 46.06

23 United Arab Emirates 62.10 58 Peru 45.95

24 Israel 60.95 59 Kuwait 45.54

25 New Zealand 60.80 60 Kenya 45.41

26 Estonia 60.51 61 Morocco 44.82

27 Portugal 59.70 62 Panama 43.43

28 Czech Republic 59.23 63 Tunisia 42.35

29 Lithuania 58.70 64 Ecuador 42.19

30 Brazil 58.40 65 Nigeria 41.66

31 Poland 58.07 66 Bangladesh 41.01

32 Malaysia 57.43 67 Dominican Republic 40.69

33 Greece 56.66 68 Algeria 39.69

34 Hungary 56.44 69 Guatemala 38.71

35 India 55.69 70 Pakistan 36.84

10 Executive Summary 

Other results:
• Countries that successfully leverage all six trends need these pre-
conditions: Clear government vision; advanced technology; active R&D,
innovation and entrepreneurship; large supplies of talent, especially
digital skills/critical business sector skills; a stable and reliable business
environment; and domestic market dynamics with adequate size, growth
potential, open foreign trade and connectivity.
• The three top ranking countries—the UK, Denmark, and the US—have
distinct success stories, but one common feature, an active industrial
sector. The UK’s industrial sector is marked by a strong result in the
transformational trend capacity areas; the US leads in advanced technology
and innovation; Denmark is strong in talent and the business environment.
• Three sectors stand to benefit more than others from the six
transformational trends: energy & utilities; information &
communication technologies; and travel & tourism. The influence of
each trend will differ on a country-by-country basis.
• The Exabyte Economy is led by the US. This transformational trend
shows the highest global average, reflecting the maturity of the trend,
as some opportunities from connected devices and cutting-edge machine
learning are consolidated.
• The Wellbeing Economy has Southeast Asia & Pacific region in the
lead, with Singapore, South Korea, and Japan being the top three. It is
important that Government and Industry coordinate efforts in this area to
achieve the best results.
• The Net Zero economy is dominated by Nordic countries. Climate
policies and long-term commitments to carbon neutrality and industry
leadership have been significant.
• The Circular Economy is led by the UK, followed by China and the
US. Country scores are narrowly dispersed in this category, however,
suggesting room for capitalizing on potential in the future.
• The BioGrowth economy is led by Germany, Japan, and France, reflecting
the link they share with achievements in patent innovation in this field.
• The Experience Economy is led by the US, the UK, and Germany. All three
countries can build on different strengths notably due to their strong industry
capacity and policy environment in culture, entertainment and sports.
11
Box 1: How much will the six trends be worth by 2030?
The global economic landscape is undergoing
transformative change, driven by a
convergence of technological advancements,
societal shifts, and environmental imperatives.
1. Exabyte Economy: Tech surge
At the forefront of this transformative
era is the Exabyte economy,
encompassing such technologies as
Internet of Things (IoT), 5G, Artificial
Intelligence (AI), and Big Data. According
to McKinsey, Straits Research, Statista,
Bloomberg, and Fortune Business
Insights, this colossal sector is projected
to be worth $11 trillion to $17 trillion
by 2030. As data becomes the new
currency, the Exabyte economy is
set to revolutionize industries, drive
innovation, and reshape the digital
landscape.
2. Wellbeing Economy: Nurturing a
Healthier Future
The Wellbeing economy, valued at
around $9 trillion by 2030, focuses on
preventative health, self-improvement
coaching, organizational and
educational programs, as well as
fitness, diet, and health & beauty. PwC,
SkyQuest Technology, FinTech Futures,
and Fortune Business Insights predict
a thriving sector that prioritizes holistic
health and personal development,
emphasizing a shift towards proactive
wellness measures in the global
community.
Executive Summary 
3. Net Zero Economy: The Pursuit of
Sustainable Prosperity
With a worth of $4 trillion, the Net
Zero economy emerges as a beacon
of hope in the fight against climate
change. As identified by Statista,
Vantage Research Market, Precedence
Research, Fortune Business Insights,
and Global Newswire, this economy
is driven by a commitment to carbon
neutrality, sustainable practices, and
environmental stewardship. Companies
and nations are aligning their strategies
to harmonize economic growth and
ecological sustainability.
4. Circular Economy: Closing the Loop
on Sustainability
Valued at $4.5 trillion by 2030, the
Circular economy, according to
Accenture, is built on the principles
of reducing, reusing, and recycling.
This economic model challenges the
traditional linear approach, aiming to
minimize waste and maximize resource
efficiency. As businesses increasingly
adopt circular practices, this economy
represents the symbiotic relationship
between economic prosperity and
environmental responsibility.
5. BioGrowth Economy: Nurturing
Nature for Progress
The BioGrowth economy, forecast to be
worth $1.7 trillion by 2030, encompasses
new-generation biorefinery, biomaterials,
plant tissue culture, synthetic biology,
and plant-based foods. Precedence
Research, Verified Market Research®,
Polaris Market Research, Bloomberg
Intelligence, and Vantage Research
Market recognize the transformative
potential of harnessing nature’s
capabilities for sustainable industrial and
agricultural practices.
6. Experience Economy: Beyond the
Tangible
Projected to reach $17 trillion by 2030,
the Experience economy, as highlighted
by Fortune Business Insights, Yahoo
Finance, Business Wire, and The Brainy
Insights, thrives on virtual reality
(VR), 3D printing, and tourism. This
economy transcends traditional notions
of consumption, offering individuals
immersive and memorable experiences
that redefine the value of products and
services.
These emerging economies promise to
redefine the global economic order. The
Exabyte economy’s digital revolution, the
Wellbeing economy’s focus on holistic health,
the Net Zero economy’s commitment to
sustainability, the Circular economy’s resource
efficiency, the BioGrowth economy’s fusion
of biology and industry, and the Experience
economy’s immersive offerings collectively
shape a future where economic prosperity
coexists with social, environmental, and
technological advancement. The interplay of
these economies forms a tapestry that reflects
the interconnected and dynamic nature of our
evolving world.
12

1. Future
Possibilities Index
Results

The FPI 2024 – country results in brief

• The United Kingdom ranks first on the FPI list owing to a strong all-round
performance, followed by Denmark and the United States.
• The top 10 segment is completed by Japan, South Korea, and five
European economies.
• Among the large emerging markets, China (19th) leads, followed by
Brazil (30th) and Malaysia (32st). Nigeria, Philippines, Bangladesh and
Pakistan are among countries with room for improvement.
• UAE (23th) ranks the highest in Middle East and North Africa region. Brazil
tops the list in Latin America and the Caribbean. South Africa (50th) leads
the Sub-Saharan African region.
• Leaders per trend: Exabyte – United States, Wellbeing – Singapore, Net
Zero – Denmark, Circular – United Kingdom, BioGrowth – Germany, and
Experience – United States.
• Brazil has the highest overall ranking (30th) relative to that based on core
capacity (51st) due to its stronger trends capacity (22nd).
• Conversely, Hong Kong (22nd) performs less well overall than its core
capacity (4th) would suggest, with a relatively weak trends capacity (26th).
• High-income countries in the bottom half of the FPI are Saudi Arabia
(36th), Slovak Republic (37th), Chile (42nd), Latvia (44th), Uruguay (45th),
Bahrain (53rd), Oman (54th), Kuwait (59th) and Panama (62nd).
13 1. Future Possibilities Index Results

Figure 1.1: Future Possibilities Scores (0-100, where 100 is the best possible score)

United Kingdom 72.06

Denmark 71.28

United States 71.23

Netherlands 70.86

Germany 70.77

Korea, Rep. of 70.46

Japan 69.88

Sweden 69.70

Switzerland 69.52

France 69.43

Canada 69.42

Singapore 69.40

Finland 68.33

Belgium 67.49

Norway 66.98

Italy 66.59

Australia 66.58

Spain 66.30

China 66.26

Austria 65.94

Ireland 64.16

Hong Kong SAR 63.08

United Arab Emirates 62.10

Israel 60.95

New Zealand 60.80

Estonia 60.51

Portugal 59.70

Czech Republic 59.23

Lithuania 58.70

Brazil 58.40

Poland 58.07

Malaysia 57.43

Greece 56.66

Hungary 56.44

India 55.69

Exabyte economy Wellbeing economy Net Zero economy

Circular economy Biogrowth economy Experience economy
14 1. Future Possibilities Index Results 

Saudi Arabia 55.14

Slovak Republic 54.68

Thailand 54.05

Turkey 54.02

Mexico 53.98

Colombia 53.46

Chile 53.33

Indonesia 53.27

Latvia 53.24

Uruguay 52.69

Bulgaria 51.79

Romania 51.24

Argentina 51.23

Viet Nam 50.42

South Africa 50.29

Philippines 48.38

Egypt 48.33

Bahrain 47.84

Oman 47.50

Costa Rica 46.32

Jordan 46.09

Kazakhstan 46.06

Peru 45.95

Kuwait 45.54

Kenya 45.41

Morocco 44.82

Panama 43.43

Tunisia 42.35

Ecuador 42.19

Nigeria 41.66

Bangladesh 41.01

Dominican Republic 40.69

Algeria 39.69

Guatemala 38.71

Pakistan 36.84

Exabyte economy Wellbeing economy Net Zero economy

Circular economy Biogrowth economy Experience economy
15 1. Future Possibilities Index Results 

Findings from the FPI results

The overall results are shown in Figure 1.1. Overall, countries with a higher
GDP per capita perform better in the FPI than poorer economies (see Figure
1.2). Yet national income alone cannot fully explain the findings. Some high-
income economies fare quite poorly in the FPI relative to their income level
while others significantly outperform.

Figure 1.2: Correlation between FPI and GDP per capita (current USD)

GDP per capita (Current US$)

120,000

110,000 NOR
IRL

100,000
CHE

90,000
SGP

80,000 USA

70,000 DNK
AUS

60,000 SWE NLD

ISR ARE CAN
AUT
HKG BEL FIN DEU
50,000 NZL
GBR

KWT FRA
40,000
ITA JPN
KOR
BHR SAU ESP
30,000 CZE EST
OMN LTU PRT
URY SVK GRC
LVA POL
20,000 PAN HUN
CHL
CRI ROU BGR CHN
KAZ MEX MYS
DOM ARG BRA
10,000 TUR
ECU ZAF
GTM DZA PER COL THA
EGY VNM
PAK BGD NGA TUN KEN JOR IND
MAR PHL IDN
0
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Future Possibilities Index

Source: Authors’ analysis and World Bank

Several emerging markets, such as China (19th), Brazil (30th), and India
(35th), do well despite a lower GDP per head than the leaders. Overall,
resource-based economies seem less likely to have a future-oriented
strategy to leverage possibilities created by global trends. For these
countries, the approach to development embodied in the FPI carries the
possibility of leapfrogging by selecting one or two trends to leverage. The
ways in which countries can use the FPI for developing their economic
strategy is described below.
Importantly, using the FPI model for development goes hand in hand
with creating more equal societies. The FPI captures key elements of societal
wellbeing, which is an important objective for many countries today alongside
traditional economic objectives such as GDP. This is shown in the negative
correlation of the FPI with the equality of income distribution (as measured
16 1. Future Possibilities Index Results 

Figure 1.3: Correlation between FPI and GINI Index

GINI index
65

65 ZAF

60

55 BRA
PER COL
50 GTM
CRI
ECU MEX
CHL
45
ARG
URY TUR MYS
MAR PHL USA
40 KEN POL ISR
BGR IDN
DOM CHN
LTU
PAK NGA VNM ROU ITA
35 TUN
JOR IND ESP CHE JPN
LVA THA GRC AUS GBR
BGD DEU
EST
PAN IRL AUT CAN
30 HUN FRA KOR
DZA KAZ PRT NOR
ARE SWE DNK
CZE FIN
25 SVK BEL NLD

20

15

10

0
35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75
Future Possibilities Index
Source: Authors’ analysis and World Bank

by GINI, where 100 denotes perfect inequality and 0 perfect equality)—a key
metric of societal cohesion (see Figure 1.3).
More equitable countries tend to perform better on the FPI with Denmark
(2nd). The Netherlands (5th) and Germany (5th) also being among the 10 most
equitable countries. At the same time, some of the most equitable countries
rank relatively low on the FPI, notably the Slovak Republic (37th). This suggests
that a focus on possibilities does not automatically lead to higher societal
wellbeing, but necessitates close attention. To guide countries in this exercise,
the FPI explicitly captures the relevant policies that result in higher wellbeing
related to gender, social cohesion and social capital, as well as societal trust
and security.

Lessons of global role models

A look at the leading economies’ performance can inform other countries’

efforts. The three top-ranking countries— United Kingdom, Denmark, and
United States — have distinct success stories. The United Kingdom performs
well across most of the six identified trends, ranking among the top five for
Circular, Experience, Exabyte, and BioGrowth. The country’s major strengths in
innovation are reflected in a strong core capacity as well as in robust services
sectors.
17
Box 2: The UK tops the index
Core capacity
GOVERNMENT VISION
100
80
MARKET
DYNAMICS 60
40
20
0 0
BUSINESS-
FRIENDLINESS
TALENT
United Kingdom Global avg. Europe & Central Asia
Figure 1.4: UK’s performance on Core Capacity and transformational trends in comparison to other countries
The UK occupies first place in the Future
Possibilities Index due to the country’s
many structural strengths that ensure
it is well positioned to leverage the six
transformational trends. These strengths
are notable in innovation (where it ranks 8th
on the related dimension of the FPI) and
entrepreneurial activity (5th), as well as the
ability to implement farsighted policies.
The UK’s high performance in innovation
stems from a world-leading research and
development performance (5th in terms of
R&D outputs). One example is the strategic
delivery plan 2022-2025 developed by UK
Research and Innovation, a government-
sponsored body, that aims to strengthen
innovation by focusing on three dimensions
closely related to the transformational
trends of the FPI: net zero, healthy living &
agriculture, and digital technologies. The
plan builds on the UK’s highly effective
research capacity and intends to enable
innovative businesses to thrive. The strategic
plan focuses on people, places, ideas, and
innovation, but also the impact on society as a
1. Future Possibilities Index Results 
Trend specific pillar
CIRCULAR
ECONOMY
TECHNOLOGY
INNOVATION WELLBEING
ECONOMY
United Kingdom
whole. The program invests up to £25 million
($32 million) in selected game-changing,
world-leading ideas which promise rapid
commercial success. A network of Catapults
(technology and innovation centers) to
accelerate the application of research in
practice has been active for almost a decade.
Contributing to the UK’s top position
in the FPI is the research success of its
world-leading universities and related
technology ecosystems. The Cambridge
University Ecosystem is recognized as a
top technology hub, notably in Biotech,
due to the high degree of public-private
collaboration. Oxford University’s innovation
ecosystem was recently recognized for
the role its researchers played in the
development of a leading COVID vaccine in
collaboration with Astra Zeneca.
Other systemic factors that underpin
the UK’s ability to leverage transformational
trends are the country’s ability to use novel
technologies early in development. One
example is Generative Artificial Intelligence,
as when the UK government hosted a
EXABYTE ECONOMY
100
80
BIOGROWTH
60 ECONOMY
40
20
NET ZERO
ECONOMY
EXPERIENCE
ECONOMY
Global avg. Europe & Central Asia
global summit on the regulation of AI, in
November 2023.
Furthermore, the UK ranks second
worldwide behind the US as an exporter of
services, led by the role of London as a global
financial center, notwithstanding the effects
of Britain’s departure from the EU in January
2020. The London region comprises almost
a quarter of the UK’s GDP, which underlies
the importance of mega hubs as centers of
innovation and resilience. The city offers a
lesson for other major conurbations in the
UK, such as Manchester, Birmingham and
Glasgow, which could become more powerful
engines of economic growth by strengthening
their infrastructure and developing regional
policies that knit together other cities nearby.
It is noteworthy that the UK’s productivity
growth has lagged behind the US, France
and Germany since the early 2000s, but
the FPI points to the possibility of an
improvement in the future. Harnessing the
six transformational trends would enable the
UK to build on its structural advantages and
realize its potential.
18 1. Future Possibilities Index Results 

Denmark performs consistently well across the six trends and in

core capacity. The United States, by contrast, dominates the Exabyte and
Experience economies, but significantly lags in other trends, such as the
Wellbeing economy and can attribute a significant part of its high score to its
strong core capacities.
These results show there is not a singular route but many paths
to seize emerging opportunities. The FPI emphasizes a spectrum of
equally valuable pathways to capture forthcoming possibilities. The key
lies in formulating and implementing a strategy tailored by each country,
leveraging its unique strengths.
The three top countries do have one common feature, though, an active
industrial sector. British industry consistently overperforms in the six trends.
Industry in the United States is also boosted by excellent underlying capacities
in technology and innovation. The same goes for Denmark whose strong
industrial sector is based on a talented workforce and a business-friendly
environment. While there is room for improvement in the Government
Strategy & Policy areas related to each of the six trends, all three countries do
have forward-looking policies, as indicated by their position in the top 15 for
government vision in the “Core Capacity”. This underscores the importance
of cultivating a collaborative, long-term vision shared between industry and
government to capitalize on forthcoming opportunities.
It is worth noting that, while the three countries are positioned well
to grasp future possibilities, they also have a strong need to do so. Their
low scores for market dynamics, as measured by the share of working age
population and age-dependency ratio, point to looming structural challenges as

Country leaders show how to make the most of the

six trends

Who is best positioned in the individual trends? Table 1.1 shows the best
performing economies by trend. What stands out is that the top economies are
aso among the top performers on the trends, suggesting that core elements
such as forward looking government strategy, public private collaboration,
advanced technology and skills play a significant role in how countries will
be able to leverage global trends for their future development. Also visible
is the overlap between related trends – Nordic countries tend to focus on
environmental possibilities and perform well in both Net Zero and Circular
economies. Countries that perform well in the Exabyte Economy often also
perform well in the Experience Economy, which is to a certain extent also driven
19 1. Future Possibilities Index Results 

by digital technologies. The full rankings for each trend are available in the
Data Summary at the end of the report.

Table 1.1: Rankings by trend

Exabyte Economy Wellbeing Economy Net Zero Economy

Country Score (0-100) Country Score (0-100) Country Score (0-100)

United States 79.88 Singapore 74.90 1 Denmark 73.67

Singapore 78.21 Korea, Rep. of 74.82 2 Sweden 71.66

United Kingdom 77.16 Japan 74.52 3 Finland 70.28

Canada 76.99 Netherlands 73.81 4 Singapore 67.86

Korea, Rep. of 75.59 Belgium 73.44 5 Norway 67.25

Australia 75.57 Canada 70.53 6 Switzerland 66.87

Circular Economy Biogrowth Economy Experience Economy

Country Score (0-100) Country Score (0-100) Country Score (0-100)

United Kingdom 73.74 Germany 77.60 United States 74.73

China 72.73 Japan 76.46 United Kingdom 72.21

United States 72.12 France 76.40 Germany 69.91

Germany 71.70 United Kingdom 75.61 Spain 69.88

Denmark 71.23 Switzerland 75.45 Japan 69.75

Sweden 70.32 Netherlands 74.79 Switzerland 69.32

The United States occupies top place in the Exabyte Economy. It is number
one in the trend-specific pillar of Policy and Industry Strength, but it ranks
third in Government Strategy and Policy, where China takes the lead. Despite
topping Government Strategy and Policy, China sits at the 7th place overall
in the Exabyte Economy rankings. Across all countries, the Exabyte Economy
shows the highest global average, reflecting the observation that some
opportunities under this trend, such as connected devices or cutting-edge
machine learning, have already been seized. Latin America & the Caribbean lag
behind other regions in this trend.
The Wellbeing Economy is led by the Asia-Pacific region with Singapore,
South Korea and Japan being the top three countries. Trend-specific pillars
show that Government and Industry are out of sync in this trend: when
one is performing well, the other is lagging. To take full advantage of the
opportunities emerging from this trend, government and industry should
move in the same direction by supporting each other’s efforts. Latin America
20 1. Future Possibilities Index Results 

Box 3: Connecting the planet
Two thirds of the world’s population, or 5.3
billion people, use the internet, which lies
at the heart of the exabyte economy. This
means that one third, about 2.6 billion, do
not, usually because they are in places that
lack the infrastructure to access the internet.
The addition of 2.6 billion users,
mainly in Africa and South Asia, would add
considerably more value to the internet than
a simple 49 percent addition would imply,
due to the so-called network effect. It works
like a multiplier: The greater the number
of buyers, sellers, and users of products,
services and digital platforms, the greater the
value created by the expansion of numbers of
people that are using the internet.
A world in which everybody is connected
to the internet will create much more value
than a globe on which many are unable
to access it. In addition, it will enable the
2.6 billion currently not using the internet
to catch up with everybody else. This may
seem impossibly daunting, considering
how advanced some countries are in digital
economic maturity. Yet there are plenty of
examples of leapfrogging, such as China,
Indonesia and Brazil.
The expansion of the internet will
therefore lead to massive social, as well as
economic, benefits. Government agencies
and non-profit organizations, as well as
corporations, will be able to reach a wider
audience and deliver services more efficiently.
Reaching the last one or two billion
people that do not have internet access
is going to be hard and expensive. The
International Telecommunication Union, a UN
body, estimates it will cost more than $425
billion by 2030 to connect the people who are
currently off the grid.
Companies, governments and non-profits
will have to collaborate to deploy the needed
infrastructure, reaching areas of the world
where traditional internet providers don’t
operate. They must work together to develop
local technical skills. But the benefits of
complete, global coverage far outweigh the
costs. The exabyte economy is predicted to
be worth $11 trillion to $17 trillion by 2030.

& Caribbean countries perform well in Government Strategy and Policy while
Industry Strength is lagging.
Nordic countries dominate the Net Zero economy. In fact, Denmark,
Sweden, Finland, and Norway rank in the top 5. They have been prioritizing
climate policy by making long-term commitments to achieve carbon neutrality,
and their industries are taking a leadership role in this area. Other European
countries and Canada complete the top 10. Overall, countries’ scores in this
trend average slightly more than 50, the lowest average among all trends.
This reflects the fact that countries are slow in taking advantage of the
opportunities emerging from the Net Zero trend. Furthermore, middle-income
countries are not focusing much on the opportunities emerging from the Net
Zero Economy; in fact, only China makes it into the top 30. Jordan and Brazil
perform very well in trend-specific pillars, while oil-rich countries are lagging in
this trend.
In the Circular Economy, the United Kingdom is leading, followed by
China and the United States. Overall, countries’ scores are narrowly dispersed
in this trend, signalling collective efforts toward harnessing the emerging
opportunities in the Circular Economy. None, though, have fully capitalized
on its potential. Indeed, there are not yet clear leaders and laggards in this
trend, probably because few government policies are legally binding currently.
Nonetheless, countries should continue preparing for this trend, as there is still
plenty of room for improvement. Industry actions in the coming years will be a
clear differentiating factor. Italy, Canada, Colombia and Mexico perform very well in
trend-specific pillars, driven by a comparatively strong performance in Government
Strategy and Policy. The Middle East & North Africa is lagging other regions.
21 1. Future Possibilities Index Results 

Germany, Japan, and France lead the BioGrowth economy, highlighting the
clear link with patent innovation in this field. India ranks 15th and is the best
performing middle-income country, driven by a high level of industry strength.
Japan, India, and Turkey perform very well in trend-specific pillars, suggesting
a healthy potential to innovate in biomaterials, plant science and synthetic
biology. It is interesting to note that middle-income countries perform on
average better in the BioGrowth trend than in other transformational trends,
as governments see the opportunity to use their flourishing agricultural

Box 4: Nature-based solutions and mitigate the urban heat-island effect.

Nature-based solutions are an innovative
approach to addressing environmental
challenges by harnessing the power of
ecosystems. In contrast to traditional
solutions that are often engineered, nature-
based solutions leverage the inherent
resilience and efficiency of natural systems.
One example is reforestation, where
large-scale tree planting contributes
to carbon sequestration, biodiversity
conservation, and ecosystem restoration.
By harnessing the natural ability of trees to
absorb carbon dioxide, reforestation not only
mitigates the impacts of climate change, but
also promotes sustainable land management
practices. Protecting and restoring wetlands
represent another impactful nature-based
solution. These ecosystems act as carbon
sinks, filter water, and serve as vital habitats
for various species.
Sustainable agricultural practices, such
as agroforestry, are another nature-based
solution. Agroforestry systems integrate
trees with crops and livestock, providing
benefits such as improved soil health,
increased biodiversity, and enhanced carbon
sequestration in agricultural landscapes.
Furthermore, the promotion of green urban
infrastructure is a practical way to combat
climate change in urban areas. Incorporating
green spaces, green roofs, and permeable
surfaces into city planning beautifies urban
environments, while helping to regulate
temperatures, reduce energy consumption,
This showcases the potential of nature-
based solutions in fostering resilient and
sustainable cities.
The adoption of nature-based solutions
becomes increasingly urgent, as global
environmental challenges intensify.
Policymakers, communities, and businesses
are recognizing the value of working with
nature, forging a path towards sustainable
development that harmonizes human
activities with the resilience and regenerative
capacities of the natural world. Nature-based
solutions are crucial to achieving the Net Zero
targets for 2030 and beyond, with the Net
Zero transition potentially yielding $4 trillion
in annual revenue by 2030, according to
estimates by McKinsey.

sectors to spur innovation in high-tech areas. The Middle East & North Africa
lag other regions in this trend.
The United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany lead the
Experience Economy. These countries have strong capacity to develop the
experience economy because of their strong cultural sectors and wealthy and
sophisticated consumers. Developing the experience economy requires talent
and creativity and can build on resources such as natural or cultural assets.
This explains why some large developing economies are better performing
than many wealthier countries. China ranks 21st and is the best performing
middle-income country. Brazil also performs well (27th) driven by a strong
performance in Government Strategy and Policy. Eastern European & Central
Asian countries are lagging in this trend.
22
Box 5: Next innovations in alternative proteins
by Emma Ignaszewski,
The Good Food Institute
Alternative proteins—meat made from
plants, cultivated from cells, or fermentation-
derived—are essential for meeting global
climate, biodiversity, public health, and
food security goals. Governments around
the world have increased their support for
alternative proteins in the past few years,
but still-greater help is needed to realize
alternative proteins’ benefits as part of the
BioGrowth economy, which is forecast to be
worth $1.7 trillion by 2030.
The past decade has seen a rise in
next-gen plant-based products, thanks to
innovations that enable plant-based meat to
look, cook, and taste more like conventional
meat. But there is a long way to go: The
global plant-based meat market totaled $6.4
billion in 2023, sizeable but less than 1% of
global meat sales.
Surveys show that the taste of alternative
proteins is the main barrier to more
Figure 1.5: Trends’ impact on talent demand in the next five years
Sectors
Advanced Materials & Biotechnology
Automotive, Aerospace, Distribution & Transport Aviation
Chemicals/ Petrochemicals
Consumer Goods
Energy, Utilities & Technologies
Financial Services & Investors
Health & Healthcare
Information & Communication Technologies
Infrastructure & Construction
Media & Entertainment
Professional Services
Travel & Tourism
strongly increasing demand for talent
Source: Author analysis based on a survey of 1,274 responses across the 70 countries covered by the FPI. Boxes without a symbol suggest that the evidence is not clear enough.
1. Future Possibilities Index Results 
widespread adoption, but in the next five
years, innovations are expected to greatly
improve their prospects in this regard. These
innovations include:
• Alt-protein-focused crop
development. Further exploration and
commercialization of the world’s crops
could unlock new ingredients for plant-
based meat products.
• Processing technologies. There are a
variety of manufacturing processes for
producing plant-based meat products,
but many are underexplored.
• Alternative fats. The Good Food Institute
has funded a suite of research projects
to enable research into fats with
optimized properties for plant-based
meat products. The aim is to improve
texture and create a mohtfeel akin to
conventional meat.
Cultivated meat—meat produced directly
from cells, without the animal—is identical
to conventional meat at the cellular level
and has enormous potential to enable
alternative protein products that deliver on
Exabyte Biogrowth Wellbeing
increasing demand for talent
taste. Promising areas of research include
combining cultivated fat and plant-based
meat.
Fermentation offers another opportunity
to innovate. Traditional fermentation can be
applied to alternative protein production to
improve the flavor and functionality of plant
ingredients. Precision fermentation uses
microbes like yeast as mini “cell factories” that
can be used to produce specific ingredients,
such as proteins, vitamins, flavors, and fats.
Furthermore, biomass fermentation uses the
rapid growth of microorganisms to produce
protein-rich ingredients like mycoprotein for
alternative protein products.
By making food products in ways that are
better for people and the planet, alternative
protein companies can chart a path to long-
term growth.
Emma Ignaszewski is associate director at The
Good Food Institute, a nonprofit think tank
working alongside scientists, businesses, and
policymakers to make alternative proteins like
plant-based and cultivated meat delicious,
affordable, and accessible.
Net-Zero Experience Circular
23 1. Future Possibilities Index Results 

The sectoral impact of the six trends

The influence of each trend may differ on a country-by-country basis globally,

but we can identify certain sectors that stand to benefit more than others from
the six trends. These sectors are likely to experience amplified investments
and a surge in employment opportunities. Figure 1.5 depicts the potential
impact of these trends on employment over the next five years. Among these
trends, three pivotal sectors emerge as prime beneficiaries: energy & utilities;
information & communication technologies; and travel & tourism.

Regional role models: Reflecting regional differences

We have already discussed European role models, but what can we learn from
other regions? A look at the regional best performers allows us to identify
role models in each of the regions (see Table 1.2). In the Middle East, the
UAE comes in ahead of Israel and Turkey, while South Africa leads the (small)
sample of Sub-Saharan African countries. In Latin America & Caribbean, Brazil
leads ahead of Mexico and Colombia.

Table 1.2: Top performers across regions

Rank Europe & Central Asia Score Rank Latin America & Caribbean Score Rank Middle East & North Africa Score
(0-100) (0-100) (0-100)

1 United Kingdom 72.06 1 Brazil 58.40 1 United Arab Emirates 62.10

2 Denmark 71.28 2 Mexico 53.98 2 Israel 60.95

3 Netherlands 70.86 3 Colombia 53.46 3 Saudi Arabia 55.14

Rank North America Score Rank South East Asia & Pacific Score Rank Sub-Saharan Africa Score
(0-100) (0-100) (0-100)

1 United States 71.24 1 South Korea 70.46 1 South Africa 50.29

2 Canada 69.42 2 Japan 69.88 2 Kenya 45.41

3 Singapore 69.40 3 Nigeria 41.66

North America: United States – 2nd overall

The United States has the largest entertainment market in the world,
accounting for a significant portion of its economic activity. Its dominance in
the Experience Economy is evident: it is number one and more than two points
above the second-best performer. This is driven by a very high level of industry
24 1. Future Possibilities Index Results 

strength in areas such as tourism receipts (1st), household consumption (1st),

and joint ventures in the Experience Economy (1st).
The United States is also the largest technology market in the world,
which is reflected by its top performance in the Exabyte Economy. This can be
attributed to a high level of cybersecurity (1st), 5G coverage (1st), gig economy
(1st), and the number of start-up companies with a value of more than $1
billion, also known as unicorns (1st). It also performs quite well in the other
trends, but it slips down to 25th in the Wellbeing Economy. In all trends but the
Net Zero Economy, a high level of industry strength is driving the United States
capacity to leverage possibilities emerging from transformational trends.
The United States performs very well in core capacities where it ranks
third overall. Core strengths of the United States point towards its leadership
in the Experience and Exabyte economies. It is ranked highest on advanced
technology, performing particularly well in digital capacity and usage (1st) and
digital skills (1st). It is also ranked number one in innovation where its capacity
in terms of R&D is unparalleled (1st) and the entrepreneurship environment
(3rd) is thriving, owing to the highest scores in R&D outputs, collaboration, and
private equity deals.
It could, however, benefit from a stronger legal framework and stability
(25th), as well as government leadership in the Wellbeing economy.
Improvements in health would also benefit the future workforce (60th).

Asia-Pacific: South Korea – 6th overall

South Korea excels in the Wellbeing Economy, placing it 2nd globally, due to
a robust healthcare industry and effective healthcare regulations. The country’s
digital advancement in cybersecurity, supported by a strong government
strategy and favourable tax incentives, contributes to its 5th place in the
Exabyte Economy. In the BioGrowth Economy (7th), South Korea stands out for
its impressive policy environment, strategic approach, and industrial strength.
The high scores in these trends and in the Experience Economy (8th)
could be due to vigorous innovation, attributed to top-notch research and
development resources (1st) and outputs (2nd), along with collaborative
efforts (10th). Technology advancement is evident with a 4th-place ranking,
highlighting well-established ICT connectivity (5th) and proficiency in digital
skills (5th).
To further enhance its global standing, South Korea could bolster
Government Vision (20th), Talent (20th), and Business-Friendliness (19th) within
its core capacities. A strategic focus on advancing Circular Economy (19th)
practices could propel the country toward an even more sustainable future.
25 1. Future Possibilities Index Results 

Box 6: UAE Future Readiness: Government’s proactive
approach to shaping the future
The UAE government is leading the way in
leveraging future possibilities by providing
a world class future-oriented strategic and
policy environment that enables the change
needed for leveraging future possibilities (eg.
Future Roadmaps). Indeed, future readiness
has been on the forefront of the UAE’s
economic strategy for a while, with long term
projects such as the Centennial Lab leading
the way. Recent investments in innovation
capacity (e.g. the innovation hub G42, green
hydrogen) bode well for the future and will be
pivotal in further developing related industry
capacity.
In the FPI, the UAE’s focus on leveraging
future possibilities is reflected in Core
Capacities assessment (9th). The assessment
of the six transformational trends is mixed
reflecting the government’s priorities and
strategic direction. This is notably the case
for the Exabyte Economy (10th on strategy
and policy, reflecting among other things,
one of the first AI strategies globally),
BioGrowth (9th on government strategy),
Experience Economy (13th on government
strategy), Wellbeing Economy (5th on
government strategy), Circular Economy (8th
on government strategy, notably the Circular
Economy Strategy), but also for the Net Zero
Economy (19th ).
Government commitment focusing
around these transformations creates
favorable enabling conditions for the - rather
organic - development of strong industries
that will be capable of leveraging the
transformational trends for future growth
and development of the UAE.
One transformational trend where the
UAE has made rapid progress based on
available data is the Net Zero economy. The
UAE leads the Arab World by a wide margin
and government strategy is assessed at
12th in the overall sample. Energy capacity
is growing rapidly but remains below other
countries. Recent investments in R&D of
green hydrogen and investments in solar and
nuclear capacity bode well for the future, but
are not yet reflected in the data.
A number of recommendations can be made
for the UAE based on the FPI results:
• Focus on implementation of existing
strategies to ensure that the industry
sector has the long-term certainty
needed for rapid development.
• Attract not only talent, but also new
types of companies, such as social
entrepreneurs and purpose-driven
companies.
• Leverage the important and flexible
talent pool, future growth potential
and the growing consumer market
for attracting investment into areas of
future possibility.
• Build export capacity in the relevant
industries and sectors to leverage
global developments, especially in fast-
growing emerging markets.

Middle East and North Africa: United Arab Emirates – 23rd overall
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) ranks first in the MENA region and stands
out for its high capacity to leverage the Wellbeing Economy (17th), likely
reflecting the county’s commitment to wellbeing as highlighted by its National
Programme for Happiness and Positivity. In fact, it performs very well in
government strategy and policy for the Wellbeing economy (5th).
The UAE has a range of core strengths. The country ranks ninth overall,
scoring particularly high on talent (3rd) by providing flexible employment
conditions (1st) and being capable of attracting and retaining talent (1st). It
also performs well on advanced technology (8th) including ICT connectivity
(1st), mobile broadband (1st) and internet usage (1st). Finally, the country
boasts strong government vision (2nd) which is long-term (3rd) and capable
of effective change management (2nd). Government rapidly responds to
change (1st) and its regulations are seen as easy-to-follow (2nd) (see box 5 for
more details on how the UAE is taking a proactive approach to benefit from
emerging opportunities).
The UAE can improve on innovation, with better allocation of R&D
resources and improving collaboration between universities and industry. It
26

could also benefit from a stronger industry in the Wellbeing economy given its
ambitious government strategy and policy in this area.

Latin America and Caribbean: Brazil – 30th overall

Brazil performs comparatively well in the Exabyte (27th) and Experience (27th)
economies. Brazil’s key strengths are a strong governmental strategy and
policy in Experience (3rd) and Exabyte (6th). Overall, Brazil performs better on
trend-specific pillars than in core capacity. Brazil’s relative strengths in core
capacity are in innovation (40th), where it scores high on R&D outputs (12th)
and joint ventures (15th).
While Brazil has many policy challenges, the country’s vast and unique
geography enhances its capacity to leverage specific trends such as the
Experience or Net Zero economies, notably due to its potential for biofuel
production and use.
Room for improvement in Brazil remains related to the country’s capacity
to nurture talent. The country would benefit from additional graduates in
STEM, greater creativity and critical thinking in teaching. Higher government
efficiency and effectiveness as well as ease of regulations are other factors that
would support higher levels of growth.

Sub-Saharan Africa: South Africa – 49th overall

South Africa has a comparatively solid capacity to leverage the Wellbeing (34th)
and Circular (45th) economies. The country has a comprehensive government
policy and strategy for the Wellbeing Economy building on the country’s
pharmaceutical sector. Its strengths in core capacities lie in innovation
capabilities, supported by a relatively high innovation environment (28th),
university-industry research collaboration (29th) and joint venture deals (29th).
Currently, South Africa does not have a high capacity to leverage the Net
Zero economy, which could benefit from additional regulatory and economic
instruments for renewable energy. In addition, long term benefits could be
gained by improving workforce talent and skills, by investing in education,
especially STEM, vocational training and promoting critical thinking in teaching.

Agenda for the future

This report provides decision makers in government and the private sector
with a tool to help prioritize their future long-term strategy, derived from
estimates of the biggest economic and social opportunities over the next 10
years. These are predictions, of course, but they are based on historical data
27 1. Future Possibilities Index Results 

primarily. The FPI shows which countries have grasped opportunities in the
past by designing policies that have enabled the private and public sectors to
move ahead.
For the future, governments and companies need to assess the risk of not
taking the opportunities presented in the report. If they allow these chances
to pass them by, other governments and companies will take their place. Start
planning ahead now.
There is also a risk that, due to these transformations, less developed
countries further fall behind. But their fates are not cast in stone. Leapfrogging
opportunities abound for these countries.
This report has so far outlined the main findings of the FPI; the rest of
the report details the design of the framework and how the numbers are
obtained. This background will help governments and companies to plan with

Box 7: Tackling plastic’s environmental impact Assembly adopted a groundbreaking

The annual global production of plastic is
430 million metric tons, with almost 90%
escaping recycling or reuse. Plastic pollution
can harm habitats and natural processes,
reducing ecosystems’ ability to adapt to
climate change, hurting millions of people’s
livelihoods, food production capabilities
and social well-being. According to the UN
Environment Programme, the impact could
be reduced by 80% by 2040 if countries and
companies make big policy and market shifts
using existing technologies. Furthermore,
several organizations have been calling for
a global treaty to regulate plastics. Such a
treaty would make a significant contribution
to the Circular Economy trend, which is
estimated to be worth about $4.5 trillion a
year by 2030.
The EU is leading global efforts against
plastic pollution by backing the establishment
of the High Ambition Coalition to End
Plastic Pollution, pledging to negotiate the
eradication of plastic pollution by 2040.
Elsewhere, The Ellen MacArthur Foundation
advocates for a legally binding global treaty,
as well as comprehensive circular economy
measures, and an initial focus on plastic
packaging, which contributes around 40% of
total plastic waste.
In March 2022, the UN Environment
resolution to formulate a global plastics
treaty. The objective is to reduce plastic
pollution, encompassing ocean pollution
and microplastics, throughout the entire
plastic lifecycle. Negotiations have gone on
since then, with a strong focus on resolving
differences around treaty provisions covering
operational changes at all stages of the
plastic value chain, from primary plastic
polymers to waste management. Member
states unanimously acknowledge the need
for a comprehensive approach to the plastics
life cycle, but they differ on where the life
cycle commences. The goal is to draft the
treaty by the end of 2024, aiming for treaty
adoption by mid-2025.
28

2. How countries
leverage global
trends

Introduction

Countries’ long-term success depends on their capacity to strategically leverage

transformational global trends in the same way that businesses leverage market
trends. Novel technologies, new business models, and the smarter use of
resources are transforming industries, economies and societies and give rise to
countless possibilities for improved growth and societal wellbeing.
Realizing the possibilities associated with global trends could accelerate
progress at scale, but only if the right conditions are in place. Government
policymakers and business leaders can build the capacity to leverage trends
by identifying them, investing in them, and implementing transformational
policies that enable everybody to take advantage of their potential.
By assessing countries’ ability to capitalize on new growth possibilities,
the Report aims to improve people’s understanding of what elements of
transformational policies are needed and how to create the capacity to leverage
trends. It aims to shift the global conversation from a risk-based view of
transformational trends toward a possibility-focused perspective that recognizes
global megatrends as an engine for advancing socioeconomic development.

The FPI framework and methodology

The Future Possibilities Index (FPI) measures the capacity of countries to
leverage possibilities emerging from six transformational trends for their
future economic growth and societal wellbeing. The structure of the index is
presented in Figure 2.1.
29 2. How countries leverage global trends 

Figure 2.1: FPI structure

BIOGROWTH

Six global transformations of the FPI

The six transformational trends emerge from a combination of new business

models, technologies and changes in attitudes and behaviors. Each of the six
trends presents distinct types of opportunities for governments, the business
sector and society to improve lives and livelihoods. Our criteria for selecting trends
as transformational include their systemic nature, global relevance and scale
of impact over the coming 5–10 years. These trends are not isolated from each
other, but instead interact with one another. The six trends of the FPI and the
opportunities they create are described in detail in chapter 2 and in the appendix.

What is meant by “transformational trend”

Transformational trends are defined as trajectories and patterns arising from
sustained socioeconomic, environmental or technological changes that are
likely to transform economic possibilities over the next 5–10 years.
1. The Exabyte Economy: As computing power and storage become more
efficient, and AI technology is rolled out, future rises in connectivity
will be driven more by devices than people. The resulting flow of data
will further improve the capacity of systems to optimize processes and
services and disrupt business models across a range of sectors.
30 2. How countries leverage global trends 

2. The Wellbeing Economy: People’s interest in physical and mental

wellbeing is huge and growing, as new approaches to wellbeing are
embedded at individual, organizational and community levels. There
will be multiple opportunities in this sector for countries at different
stages of development.
3. The Net Zero Economy: Growing markets are increasing demand
for energy, while a rising number of countries are setting targets to
reduce carbon emissions. Innovation in technologies, investment

Box 8: Blue Economy Opportunity nodules composed of nickel, cobalt, copper

by Anita Parlow
The oceans encompass 97% of the world’s
water resources, constituting the largest
and most bio-diverse ecosystem on the
planet. The oceans are transforming into a
powerful economic force known as the “blue
economy”, involving an intricate interplay of
commercial and scientific activities. It is a very
significant part of the BioGrowth Economy, a
transformational trend, forecast to be worth
$1.7 trillion by 2030. The blue economy
could create multiple economic and social
opportunities, but it is threatened by the
negative effect of some human activities on
marine ecosystems, degrading their health,
undermining biodiversity, hastening global
warming, and disrupting global fisheries.
Governments, corporations, and
organizations are responding with an
increasing number of regulations, laws and
practices aimed at protecting the oceans
and promoting sustainability. To address the
mounting pressures of the accelerating “blue
economy,” 50 nations have committed to
safeguard 30% of the planet’s land and sea by
2030. Additionally, the UN Decade of Ocean
Research for Sustainable Development (to
2030) and the UN Sustainable Development
Goals aim to ensure the protection of the
world’s seas.
In September 2023, the UN High Seas
Treaty, also known as the agreement on
Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction,
was signed in New York by 84 countries. The
legally binding instrument marks a potentially
historic stage in oceans governance, but it
does not include activities that are already
regulated, however minimally, leaving
questions about its effectiveness.
One controversial area is deep-sea
mining. Many scientists, companies and
governments assert that deep sea-bed
mining of critical minerals—polymetallic
and manganese—is vital for manufacturing
electric vehicles and other products that will
reduce carbon emissions. Yet in a report,
“Harmful Marine Extractives: Deep-Sea
Mining”, the UN emphasizes the potential
environmental harm of deep-sea mining
and asserts that significant challenges
must be addressed before the sector can
be recognized as economically viable or
environmentally responsible.
To leverage opportunities successfully
and sustainably in the blue economy,
investors and governments must create
new commercial models that align with the
imperative for environmental and ecosystems
protection. This is crucial not only to
ensure the longevity of the resources being
developed, but also to safeguard biodiversity.
Anita Parlow is an attorney, author and
advisor focused on climate change, energy
and indigenous issues, particularly in the Arctic
region.

models and markets can be expected to accelerate the development of

new sources of energy, battery technologies, electric vehicles, energy-
efficient buildings and hydrogen- powered fuel cells.
4. The Circular Economy: Growing public awareness of the need to reduce
environmental impact will continue to open new possibilities across value
chains based on optimizing the use of resources and reducing waste. The
circular economy will become a more mainstream set of activities, as new
technological solutions enable more recycling and re-use.
5. The BioGrowth Economy: Rapid progress in biomaterials, plant science
and synthetic biology will lead to breakthroughs in areas such as new
food types, biodegradable materials, resilient crops, fuel refined from
31 2. How countries leverage global trends 

agricultural waste and animal protein substitutes.

6. The Experience Economy: The desire to “experience”, not just to consume,
is expanding from high-end markets to a mass clientele. AI-powered
chatbots will increasingly enable service personalization, and 3D printing
will expand opportunities to customize products. “Experience tourism”
accounts for a growing share of the global travel market, and virtual reality
is becoming more sophisticated and affordable.

Box 9: The impact of AI on the global economy
Scientists began developing artificial
intelligence (AI) technology in the 1950s,
but it didn’t become a preoccupation of
governments and boardrooms until 2023,
especially concerning one aspect of the
technology known as Generative AI. This is
defined as deep-learning models that can
generate high-quality text, images, and other
content, based on the data they were trained
on. The impact of various types of AI is likely
to be felt across all six transformational
trends, in particular the Exabyte economy
and the Experience economy.
According to 2023 data from Goldman
Sachs, Generative AI has the potential to
boost global GDP by 7%, equivalent to
nearly $7 trillion and elevate productivity
growth by 1.5 percentage points over a
decade. Bank of America suggests that AI is
experiencing an “iPhone moment,” predicting
a $900 billion enhancement to the global
economy by 2026 and $15.7 trillion by 2030.
Additionally, McKinsey Global Institute’s 2023
report indicates that Generative AI could
contribute up to $4.4 trillion annually to the
global economy in the long term, extending
up to 2060.
A forthcoming wave of new AI systems
will significantly affect global employment
markets. McKinsey Global Institute data
suggests that half of all work could be
automated between 2030 and 2060. Despite
the anticipated impact on the labor market,
most jobs and industries are expected to
be only partially exposed to automation,
suggesting a more complementary
relationship with AI rather than complete
substitution.
A study by PwC reveals regional variations
in the impact of AI on the global economy.
China and the US are projected to be
the largest beneficiaries, with respective
GDP increases of 26% and 14% by 2030,
accounting for 70% of the global economic
impact. This is attributed to North America’s
advanced technological environment
and consumer readiness for AI, enabling
swift adoption and widespread effects on
productivity. In the case of China, the greater
impact on GDP stems from improvements
in productivity, products, and services
compared to other regions worldwide.
As AI advances, a critical challenge lies
in ensuring that its benefits are equitably
distributed and shared. Workers may resist
AI implementation unless organizations help
create a mutually beneficial relationship
between humans and intelligent machines.

The FPI assesses each country on each of these trends through three
elements. Of these, two categories that capture elements of capacity specific
to each trend:

A. Government Strategy and Policy which measures the degree to

which government is leading the transformation through policy and
implementation.
B. Industry Strength which assesses the degree to which the country has the
industrial capacity to take advantage of the trend. In addition:
C. A set of core capacities which measures the transformational policies
that countries need to consider if they are to create opportunities out of
societal shifts.
32 2. How countries leverage global trends 

The FPI trend scores are calculated as a simple average of the three elements
as shown on Figure 2.2. Table 2.1. provides additional insights into how each of
these three elements is assessed for each of the six identified trends.

Table 2.1: Conceptual Framework of the FPI

Exabyte Wellbeing Net Zero Circular Biotech Experience

Government For each trend key indicators for this pillar include Government strategy, Regulatory environment and Supportive tax & incentives which are derived from the FPI
Strategy & Business Executives Survey. Trend specific indicators from external sources complement this data to answer the following trend specific questions:
Policy
Is the government using Is the government Is the government Is the government Is the government Is the government
online tools? Is it setting fostering digital health implementing measures encouraging the use of increasing or limiting promoting and
a framework for new and well-being including to decrease carbon sustainable resources market access to new facilitating visits from
technologies? mental health? consumption at the in consumption and agritech and biomaterial abroad? How strong is
(inter)national level? production? products? the country brand for
tourism?

Industry A strong incumbent industry is more often than not the starting point for taking advantage of opportunities. This pillar measures how well established and dynamic
Strength the current industry in the country is; for most trends key indicators for this pillar include patents and joint ventures.

How important and
cutting edge is the
digital sector and
related tech companies?
How big is the growth
potential for companies?
How established How much innovation Are companies taking How much innovation Does the country have a
and cutting edge is is happening in part in ESG reporting is happening in well-established tourism
the healthcare and biotechnology, food and/or environmental biotechnology, food industry? Do individuals
wellbeing industry? chemistry and organic certifications? How chemistry and organic have the time and
How important is the fine chemistry? How big dynamic is the fine chemistry? How big spending power? Are
potential demand for is the country’s output environmental tech is the country’s output there recreational
health services? and capacity? sector? and capacity? experiences?

Core Capacity Core capacity is what a country needs to have in place to prepare for the future. Certain factors, institutions and policies are fundamental if a country is to be able to
seize the more advanced opportunities. Core capacity matter for all the trends and are thus, the same for all transformational trends.

Government Vision
How strategic and
forward looking
are business and
government? Does the
Government implement
a future-oriented
strategy and drive
investment?
Advanced Technology Innovation Talent Business Friendliness Market Dynamics
Does the country Is there the knowledge Is creative talent Does the country Are markets agile? Do
leverage latest capacity necessary available? Is the country provide a dynamic culture and rules and
technologies? How to create innovative attractive to the best business environment? regulations enable the
connected is the products and services? talent globally? Does Is the financial system / flow of ideas, capital,
country? Are individuals How quickly and broadly the labour market venture capital market trade and people? Is
able to access and use can new inventions be allow business to able to deploy funds there potential market
information technology? commercialized? Is there obtain the resources to the most promising demand for new
collaboration across needed to develop the opportunities? products?
stakeholders? opportunities?

Six dimensions of core capacity

Countries that successfully leverage transformational trends for their growth

and wellbeing have a number of pre-conditions in place that matter for all
transformational trends. These are cross-cutting institutions and policies that
create a favorable environment for business and society to thrive and that
33 2. How countries leverage global trends 

support initiatives and policies related to individual trends.

Based on case studies, expert consultations and desk research, we
identified six core capacities that cut across all trends and that reflect the
ability of each country to implement transformational policies.

Figure 2.2: FPI: Structure of trend Figure 2.3: Structure of core capacity element
assessment

Government Efficiency
Government Vision Future Orientation
Government Stratagy

Government Industry
Strategy and Policy Strength

ICT Connectivity
Core
Advanced Technology Digital Capacity & Usage
Capacity
Digital Skills

R&D Resources
Innovation Envionment
R&D
R&D Outputs
Collaboration
Innovation

Entrepreneurial Envionment
Entrepreneurship
Entrepreneurial Activity
Core Capacity
Education System Outputs
Skills
Creativity
Talent
Flexibility of Labour Market
Agility
Attracing & Retaining Talent

Legal Framework
Legal Certainty
Finance & Stability
Business Friendliness

Social Capital & Trust

Foreign Trade & Investment

Openness
Future Growth Potential
Market Dynamics Infrastructure
Consumer Spending Potential
Market Size
Future Growth Potential
34 2. How countries leverage global trends 

As shown on Figure 2.3. the, elements of core capacity are as follows:

1. Government vision
Governments need to develop and implement a long-term strategy,
based on a vision shared by societal and economic stakeholders, that
provides a clear direction to actors to align their efforts and help them to
innovate collaboratively and solve systemic problems. A clear, credible, and
consistent vision is critical to providing stability for investors.
The strategy must also adapt to changes in the economic environment.
When countries face barriers to structural change because their public
policies support sectors struggling to change with the times, they need to
be able to redirect resources towards new, more promising sectors.
Scenario planning can help governments anticipate trends and agile
regulation can support the ability of economic and social structures to
adjust to change. Open data can generate a shared understanding of the
future path and enable individual stakeholders to identify opportunities.

In the FPI, we capture this aspect by measuring, for example, whether a

government has a long-term vision it is implementing, whether it has efficient
institutions, as well as the degree of red tape and the ability to adapt to change.

2. Advanced technology
Advanced technology is an important driver of progress and future economic
performance. For countries to be able to develop and adopt state-of-the-art
technologies, they need widespread access to these technologies, as well as
the infrastructure that supports their use and widespread digital skills.
Digital technologies remain critical not only for accessing new ideas,
but also for developing new solutions in areas such as AI, IoT, and quantum
computing. For example, 5G networks will open new possibilities to harness
much greater quantities of data by connecting organizations in diverse ways.

Examples of dimensions assessed in the FPI: ICT connectivity, digital capacity

and usage, and digital skills

3. R&D, innovation and entrepreneurship

Countries need businesses to be able to innovate in products, services,
processes or business models. This requires a mixture of elements,
including:
• Sufficient investment in basic and applied sciences, both publicly and
privately funded
• Protection of intellectual property
35 2. How countries leverage global trends 

• Incentives for collaboration among businesses and other

stakeholders, such as research institutions and universities
• Public procurement policies that reward innovation
• A culture of creativity and critical thinking
• An enabling environment for entrepreneurship, including access to
finance, business services and inputs.
Policy innovation is also important, since countries are more likely to be
future-ready if they can identify new solutions to social or environmental
challenges that cannot be solved through market mechanisms.

Examples of dimensions assessed in this category of the FPI: Patent activity,

collaboration between stakeholders, resources spent on R&D, number of
researchers, entrepreneurship environment and activity.

4. Talent
All countries will face labor market transitions amid changes in technologies,
demographics and work attitudes. Some skills will no longer be needed, while
demand for new skills will increase. Future-readiness demands that a country’s
population develops a solid base of skills required by the business sector.
Digital skills and soft skills, such as critical thinking and creativity, are
frequently cited as important for future employment.
The skills base can be built by local education systems or by attracting talent
from elsewhere. Recent research findings indicate that by having the right talent
in an organization, it can dramatically increase productivity. Thus, businesses’
ability to attract and manage talent is crucial to a country’s future wellbeing.

Examples of dimensions assessed in this category of the FPI: Skills, including

education system outputs (number of tertiary graduates, STEM graduates, quality
of education), creativity (critical thinking in teaching, creative outputs), labor
market agility (ability to hire foreign labor, flexibility of labor market regulations,
skills gap).

5. Business friendliness
Businesses are more likely to thrive in a stable and reliable regulatory
environment. The rule of law, the absence of corruption and minimal red
tape help to reduce frictions and keep transaction costs low. Coupled with
access to finance, they enable investments in high-return projects.
Trust and social capital—the networks of relationships among people—
are critical to the effective functioning of both societies and economies.

Examples of dimensions assessed in this category of the FPI: legal certainty

36 2. How countries leverage global trends 

(access to finance, financial stability, quality of the legal framework) and social
capital and trust (gender equality, social capital).

6. Market dynamics
Domestic market dynamics—market size, growth rate, trade and
connectivity—are important for driving investment. A large market size
creates scope for economies of scale, as well as for improving efficiency
and speeding up the deployment of new technologies and solutions.

Examples of dimensions assessed in this category of the FPI: expected growth

and market size, including consumer spending potential, barriers to foreign
trade and investment as well as the degree of international engagement (e.g,
innovation funded from abroad and cultural exports).

The FPI uses statistical data, big data indicators and the Future Possibilities
Survey that captures the views of more than 5,000 business executives in 70
countries. The full list of indicators used in the FPI is available at www.horizon-
group.ch/insights/future-possibilities-index-2024-framework.

FPI Calculation, sources of data and country coverage

The overall FPI score is aggregated as an unweighted average of the six trend
scores. Each trend score, in turn, is calculated based on the three elements
discussed above.
The indicators used in the FPI are derived from (1) publicly available data
from renowned sources such as International Telecommunications Union,
World Intellectual Property Organization, World Economic Forum, World Bank,
etc.; (2) novel indicators developed for the purpose of this project, such as
policy indicators to assess mental health policy frameworks or patent data per
research area; (3) qualitative indicators derived from the Future Possibilities
Survey that captured the views of more than 5,000 business executives on
governmental policy and the potential of countries to leverage trends.
The FPI covers 70 economies which account for more than 90% of global
GDP. Countries were selected based on their level of development, the
availability of high-quality data, and the feasibility of ensuring comparable
and sufficiently high-quality survey results. Furthermore, expert consultations
indicated that the future possibilities approach is likely to be more relevant
to higher and middle-income countries than to low-income countries, which
usually face more fundamental challenges in their development. Thus, low-
income countries were not included in the analysis.
37

Appendix: How the

FPI was developed
The development of the FPI combined three steps:

1. Research and selection of the transformational trend set,

2. Development of index methodology and related metrics
3. Design and deployment of the Future Possibilities Survey of business
executives.

Transformational trends

In the first step we identified a set of global trends with the potential to shape
growth possibilities internationally, regionally and across multiple industries.
For the FPI framework, a trend is defined as a sustained change, movement
or phenomenon in the socioeconomic, environmental or technological sphere,
the emergence, influence, and physical or financial impact of which can be
observed and measured as rising/intensifying over many years.
The following criteria were applied to select the trends most likely to be
relevant for growth and societal wellbeing:

• Impact: the trend will have significant positive impact on possibilities

available to countries and/or industries, in terms of business growth and
job creation, and improved living standards and societal wellbeing.
N.B. Some trends could also have a potential negative impact, but are
included if mitigation and action can reduce risk and drive innovation.
• Likelihood: the trend is either current or emerging and highly likely to
mature.
• Scope: the trend will affect a large majority of countries and several
industry sectors.
• Time horizon: the impact of the trend is already measurable, or will be in
the near-term, and is expected to continue to grow for at least 5 to 10 years.
• Relevance: The trend is, or will be, particularly relevant to businesses and
governments, and by extension society at large.
38 Appendix: How the FPI was developed 

• Exclusion: We excluded trends that might give an advantage to individual

countries but be harmful at the global level.

Figure A1.1: Key milestones of the FPI research process

FPI concept FPI workshops Expert consultations Executive survey

A unique methodology was developed to
accommodate a breadth of possibilities
covering multiple sectors and countries.
60+ experts from different backgrounds
and professions gathered on several
occasions for FPI-focused workshops
(January 2019 and October 2023).
For each trend identified, in-depth
interviews were conducted to understand
key drivers of innovation in this area.
These drivers were then translated into
measurable indicators in the index.
The FPI Business Executives Survey
was rolled out in 2019 and in 2023,
across 70 countries and has gauged the
impressions of thousands of business
executives on the six trends.

Trend identification and analysis

As shown in Figure A1.1 the transformational and structural trends used as a

base for the Future Possibilities Index and the Report were identified, reviewed
and validated through:
• Desk research: A review of over 100 publicly available reports and articles
from business, scientific and mainstream media and international
organizations.
• Consultations with 60+ subject matter experts through:
1. A series of structured interviews with experts in various fields to refine
and/or validate selected trends (so-called Delphi method), the metrics
selected for the index and the final index shape.
2. Expert workshops:
⸰ An initial one-day workshop in London on April 11, 2019 to
validate and review the initial trend set and provide inputs on
metrics and index methodology.
⸰ A second workshop in Davos on January 17, 2023 to update the
concept behind the FPI and validate the trend set.
⸰ A one-day online workshop on October 4, 2023 to discuss the
most recent opportunities under each trend.
3. Consultation with the FPI Advisory Board to validate the results.
• The Future Possibilities Survey provided insight into business executives’
perceptions of the implications of the transformational trends.
39 Appendix: How the FPI was developed 

Structural and transformational trends

Using this method, a long list of trends was narrowed down and segregated
into two sets: structural and transformational trends.
Structural trends refer to socio-economic trends of at least 10 years,
such as shifts in demographics and urbanization patterns. The full impact
of structural trends on behaviors, innovation and possibilities is not always
observable in the near- to mid-term. Rather these trends drive nearer-term
transformations that will have a direct impact on business, society, and
governments. These are captured in the transformational trends.
Transformational trends refer to trends that are likely to have an obvious
impact over the next 5 to 10 years on businesses, society, and governments.
These trends often result in, or emerge from, structural changes that alter
business models, regulations, attitudes, and behaviors. Many, though not
all, transformational trends are technology-centric, emerging from the
convergence of technological or scientific advances. Transformational trends
can also emerge from tipping points, due to new information, insights or
events that spark widespread changes in attitudes or behaviors.

The following structural trends were taken into account:

Reshaping societies
1. Aging population
The global population is ageing as fertility rates are declining and life
expectancy is increasing. The global spending power of the 50-plus population
accounted for half of global consumer spending ($35 trillion) in 2020. By 2050,
this number is likely to reach 60% ($96 trillion), when average life expectancy
will be above 80 years in 59 countries. By 2050, over-65s will number 1.5
billion—an almost three-fold increase on 2010.
As lifespan extends, individuals’ life phases and choices will shift, with a
growth in life-long learning and portfolio career patterns. Intergenerational
wealth transfers will also become more important. Changing lifestyles and
tastes among older consumers will give companies new opportunities to
innovate and grow in order to meet the needs of this growing age segment.
Many of these opportunities will be found in the Wellbeing Economy and the
Experience Economy.

2. Reengineering cities
The rethinking and reengineering of urban life will be one of this century’s
biggest projects. Already just 50 cities account for over a fifth of global GDP.
40 Appendix: How the FPI was developed 

By 2050, two-thirds of the world’s population will be urbanites, 80% of whom

will reside in Asia and Africa.
Cities will be centers of innovation in areas such as smart buildings,
waste management, culture, access to services, and transportation, with a
growing market for more integrated and “greener” solutions. “Superstar” cities
will increasingly compete with one another to attract business, investment
and talent. Their search for innovative solutions to problems related to
overcrowding, pollution and sustainability of resources will create possibilities,
especially in the Net Zero Economy and the Experience Economy.

3. A world on the move

Global mobility is rising. Global passenger air traffic is expected to double
by 2040, with particularly strong growth in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific.
Also, more people are migrating, either temporarily or permanently. This
is particularly true for the highly skilled, who account for 70% of recent
immigration to OECD countries.
Greater ease of mobility and more ethnically mixed communities will
change the way people interact with each other, both professionally and
personally. New values and expectations that emerge from changing dynamics
in workplaces, families and societies will give rise to Wellbeing and Experience
opportunities in particular.

4. Generational influences
Young people from all economic and cultural backgrounds increasingly interact
within the same online world, thus influencing, and being influenced by,
opinions and events beyond the countries in which they live. They engage less
with traditional politics and more with issues and causes, wielding influence
as consumers, employees and activists. They quickly shift which services and
information sources they trust, based on the influence of their peers. Leaders
will have to find new ways to reach young people.
Businesses will need to cater to new consumers who grew up with
ubiquitous marketing, making them more sophisticated than previous
generations. Employers and governments will be shaped by the attitudes of
educated and tech-savvy young people on issues such as digital identity and
data privacy, as well as environmental and social causes.

Remapping economies
1. Trading partners
Global trade is being reshaped by new relationships and types of products
and services. Trade in information-technology products has tripled in the
past two decades, cross-border data flows have increased 50-fold in the last
41 Appendix: How the FPI was developed 

decade, and around an eighth of trade in consumer goods is now executed via
e-commerce. Overall, global flows of goods and services are expected to grow
by 30 percent in the next 15 years, with services accounting for a higher share.
The reconfiguration of supply chains will create new possibilities for growth.
So will the rising purchasing power of emerging markets, particularly India
and China. In the next decade, India is set to be the fastest-growing exporter
of services, followed by Indonesia and China. The strong growth in digitally
mediated trade will create possibilities especially in the Exabyte Economy.

2. Emerging global middle class

Though declining in advanced economies, the middle class is rising globally
to an estimated 4 billion people in 2023 (half the world’s population) with a
combined spending power of more than $45 trillion. In emerging economies,
the new middle class is driving growth for many businesses and is changing
the fabric of economies and societies around the world.
Businesses will increasingly need to respond to the demands of these
consumers in markets such as India and China. Innovations in business
models, products and services will generate competition with incumbent global
brands, such as in cars. The emerging middle classes will become increasingly
interested in Experience and Wellbeing purchases and their engagement in
sustainability will create economic possibilities in Circular and Net Zero.

3. Investment flows
Global investment flows are diversifying in terms of the type of investments,
investor profiles, and the directions they take. For example, developing markets
are fueling growth in assets under management. Asia, and particularly China,
is driving a rise in M&A deals. By 2050, the BRICS members will hold more
than 40% of all external assets, a four-fold increase from the current 10%.
Meanwhile the alternative investment industry, including socially responsible
investments, is projected to grow by 50% to $25 trillion by 2028.
Far-sighted policymakers and executives will be able to leverage
the possibilities offered by new investment flows, whether generated by
institutional investors moving more money into sectors such as real estate, or
new and more diverse generations of investors seeking returns from socially
responsible portfolios—with obvious possibilities in Circular and Net Zero.

4. Reassessing value
GDP growth figures can paint a distorted picture of the global economy, as
fragile developing economies post high growth rates and advanced economies
struggle with anaemic rates. Many are questioning whether GDP is the best
measure of economic and social progress and what values to measure instead.
42 Appendix: How the FPI was developed 

Wellbeing is quickly becoming an important metric.

Technology is opening new possibilities, such as using real-time sentiment
analysis and anonymized health tracking data to assess the national quality
of life. Companies are gaining more ability to track their environmental, social
and governance (ESG) performance. Already more than 80% of institutional
investors apply ESG criteria to their portfolios. Insurers and lenders will
increasingly demand information about ESG risks.
Companies and governments will move to find more efficient means
to measure—and tax—the value generated by new digital and data- driven
business models in the Exabyte Economy.

The FPI transformational trends

Our research highlights the six transformational trends that form the base of
the FPI:

• The Exabyte Economy

• The Wellbeing Economy
• The Net Zero Economy
• The Circular Economy
• The BioGrowth Economy
• The Experience Economy

FPI structure
Once the trends were selected, the index structure was developed, indicators
identified, and data collected.
The definition of the FPI is as follows: The Future Possibilities Index (FPI)
measures the capacity of countries to leverage possibilities emerging from
six transformational trends for their future economic growth and societal
wellbeing. The index’s structure was developed, based on the definition.

The FPI assesses each country on each trend through two categories that
capture elements of capacity specific to each trend:
Government Strategy and Policy which measures the degree to which
government is leading the transformation through policy and strategy.
Industry Strength which assesses the degree to which the country has the
industry capacity to take advantage of the trend.
Examples of trend-specific indicators are presented in Figure A1.2.
In addition, a set of fundamental elements of a future-proof, dynamic economy
43
Figure A1.2: examples of Trend specific indicators
The Exabyte
Economy
Is the government using
online tools? Is it setting
a framework for new
technologies?
Source: Author’s analysis
Appendix: How the FPI was developed 
The Wellbeing The Net Zero The Circular The Biotech The Experience
Economy Economy Economy Economy Economy
Is the government Is the government Is the government Is the government Is the government
fostering digital health setting standards, encouraging the use of increasing or limiting promoting and
and wellbeing including policies and regulatory sustainable resources market acces to new facilitating visits from
mental health? measures to decrease in consumption and agritech and biomaterial abroad? How strong is
carbon consumption production? products? the country brand for
both at the national and tourism?
international level?
have capacities have been identified in a third pillar, Core Capacity. It is
common to all trends and measures the transformational policies countries
need to consider in order to turn societal shifts into opportunities. The FPI
trend scores are calculated as a simple average of the three elements.
Based on case studies, expert consultations, and desk research we
identified six core capacities that cut across all trends and that reflect a
country’s ability to implement cross-cutting transformational policies.
The overall FPI score is calculated as an arithmetical mean of the six
transformational trend scores. In total the FPI covers 178 indicators, of which
73 are qualitative and 105 are quantitative.
Data collection and calculation
The indicators used in the FPI are derived from: (1) publicly available data
from highly regarded sources such as ITU, WIPO, World Economic Forum,
World Bank, and so on; (2) novel indicators developed for the purpose of this
project, such as policy indicators to assess mental health policy frameworks, or
patent data per research areas; (3) the Future Possibilities Survey, conducted in
2019 and again in November 2023, which captures views of more than 5,000
business executives in the countries covered, about the qualitative aspects of
government policy and the potential ability of countries to leverage trends.
All publicly available statistical data was collected between November
and December 2023. We used the process outlined below for data cleaning
and calculation.
Distribution Data was checked for normal distribution. For indicators where
normal distribution did not apply, we scaled the indicator either by population
or GDP—depending on which was most appropriate—and/or conducted a log
transformation. Data was then checked for outliers, assessing whether a data
point lay 1.5× outside (i.e. above the third quartile or below the first quartile)
the distance between the first and the third quartile.
For scoring, the mean and standard deviations were calculated, with
44 Appendix: How the FPI was developed 

the latter excluding outliers from the sample. Data pertaining to individual
countries was then converted into Z-scores (expressed in standard deviations
from the mean). Standard deviations were converted to a 0–100 scale, whereby
a standard deviation of -2.5 or lower corresponded to 0 points, and a standard
deviation of 2.5 or higher scored 100 points.
The data was checked for missing values, and estimates were produced
based on the indicator scores of the seven closest countries on the UNDP’s
Human Development Index.
Indicators were aggregated according to the FPI structure, i.e., sub-
indicators were aggregated into indicators, indicators into categories,
categories into sub-pillars and sub-pillars into pillars.
All aggregations were based on simple arithmetic averages, with the
exception of: categories into sub-pillars and sub-pillars into the core capacity
pillar. In these cases, we used a geometric aggregation to ensure that poor
performance in one area cannot be counteracted by better scores in another.
In other words, to perform well in the Core Capacity pillar, a country must
perform well across all six core capacity sub-pillars.
For each trend the three pillars—Government Strategy & Policy, Industry
Strength and Core Capacity—were equally weighted and an arithmetic
aggregation was applied. To calculate the overall FPI score, an arithmetic
aggregation of all six transformation trends was used. This approach was
deemed fair, as governments are likely to prioritize one or more trends over
others, depending on their national goals and circumstances.

Future Possibilities Survey

The Future Possibilities Survey of business executives in 70 countries is a
central element of the Future Possibilities Index. It gauges business leaders’
perceptions of their countries’ readiness to leverage trends and preparedness
for the future. The survey is critical to enable comparisons in areas for which
hard data is lacking. The survey was addressed to business executives, as
they are directly affected by the policies and strategies implemented in their
respective countries.
The 2024 Future Possibilities Index is based on a combination of two
surveys: the 2019 survey (weighted at 30%) and the 2023 survey (weighted at
70%). Below we describe each survey.
2023 Survey composition and sample size: The Future Possibilities 2023
Survey comprised two sets: the full survey containing 16 questions and
completed by 1,274 business executives, and an omnibus survey containing
11 questions and completed by 3,829 business executives. In total, the 2023
survey was completed by 5,103 business executives.
Pakistan replaced Russia, a 2019 country, among the 70 countries
45 Appendix: How the FPI was developed 

surveyed. Regionally, 37% are based in Europe, 29% in Asia-Pacific, 20% in the
Americas and 14% in the Middle East and Africa.
Fourteen percent of respondents are chief executive officers and an
additional 19% are other C-level executives. The remainder are senior
managers and heads of functional units. Some 34% work regularly in
innovation.
There was a wide distribution of company sizes, with 18% working in
companies with more than 1,000 employees, 22% between 501 and 1,000,
26% between 151 and 500, and the remainder between 50 and 150.
Most questions were broken down by transformational trend. Respondents
were asked to evaluate the country in which they work using a five-point Likert-
type scale requiring the respondent to select one of the following options
1 = “Not at all”, 2 = “To a small extent”, 3 = “To a moderate extent”, 4 = “To a
considerable extent”, and 5 = “To a great extent”.
The 2019 survey differed in some respects from the 2023 one.
2019 Survey composition and sample size: The Future Possibilities 2019
Survey comprised 23 questions, including information about the respondent.
The survey was completed by 4,735 business executives across 74 countries
between July and September 2019. Following the data editing process
described below, 3,639 responses were retained, reflecting feedback on 70
countries. Survey respondents who were equally familiar with two countries
had the option to complete the survey for both and 651 did so.
The survey was distributed online in all countries except for India and was
made available in 15 languages: Arabic, Bulgarian, Chinese, Czech, English,
French, German, Hungarian, Italian, Japanese, Portuguese, Polish, Russian,
Spanish and Turkish.

Survey scores contribution to FPI results

The indicators derived from the Future Possibilities Survey principally cover
governance aspects and account for approximately 20% of a country’s score.

Data cleaning
Survey responses were discarded if fewer than 50% of questions were
completed, or respondents spent less than five minutes answering the survey
or less than five seconds on the page defining the transformational trends.
Answers to individual questions were discarded if responses were given within
five seconds.

Survey score calculation

Survey scores were calculated by aggregating individual answers per country
based on respondents’ self-evaluation of their level of knowledge for each
46 Appendix: How the FPI was developed 

transformational trend. We asked respondents to rate their knowledge of

each transformational trend as “no knowledge”, “some knowledge” or “solid
knowledge”. We discarded answers from respondents who declared “no
knowledge” on the trend, and double-counted answers from respondents who
claimed to possess “solid knowledge”.
We then checked for individual outlier responses per country for all
countries meeting our minimum sample size requirements. For this purpose,
we computed the standardized score of each individual answer from the
country’s average, discarded any that deviated by more than two standard
deviations, and recomputed the country averages using the remaining data.
Once country-level responses had been aggregated by question, we
tested for country outliers by measuring the Cook’s distance of the linear
regression between the country’s average survey score and average hard data
score for core capacity among countries reaching our minimum sample size
requirements. Cook’s distance is a measure of an observation influence on
a linear regression. Countries for which Cook’s distance exceeded the mean
by more than threefold were considered outliers, and question scores were
corrected by a factor corresponding to the distance between the observed
average survey score and the predicted average survey score based on the
average hard data score at the limit of the 90% confidence interval.
Indicators from the Future Possibilities Survey used for the core
capacity are simple arithmetic averages of country scores for each of the
transformational trends. Regional scores were calculated by averaging
the scores of all countries in the region covered by the survey, whereby
each country was assigned the same weight. We used the World Bank
categorization of regions, except for South Asia and East Asia & Pacific, which
were combined to form the “South and East Asia & Pacific” region, as only two
countries in South Asia were covered by the Survey.
47 Data Summary

Data Summary

The following tables summarize the country results for the key components of
the Future Possibilities Index. These include the overall FPI score, scores across
the six trends and details of the components of each of the trends: Government
Strategy & Policy, Industry Strength and Core Capacity. For ease of readability,
given that the Core Capacity score is the same across the six trends we have spilt
the trends components into two tables: Core Capacity and Trends. To obtain the
final FPI score from these tables the Core Capacity is given a weight of one-third
while the Trends score is assigned a weight of two-thirds.
48 Data Summary 

Table A2.1: Future Possibilities Index Ranking Table

FPI Ranking ISO Country FPI Score (0-100) Geographic Region Income Group

1 GBR United Kingdom 72.06 Europe & Central Asia High income

2 DNK Denmark 71.28 Europe & Central Asia High income

3 USA United States 71.23 North America High income

4 NLD Netherlands 70.86 Europe & Central Asia High income

5 DEU Germany 70.77 Europe & Central Asia High income

6 KOR Korea, Rep. of 70.46 Asia-Pacific High income

7 JPN Japan 69.88 Asia-Pacific High income

8 SWE Sweden 69.70 Europe & Central Asia High income

9 CHE Switzerland 69.52 Europe & Central Asia High income

10 FRA France 69.43 Europe & Central Asia High income

11 CAN Canada 69.42 North America High income

12 SGP Singapore 69.40 Asia-Pacific High income

13 FIN Finland 68.33 Europe & Central Asia High income

14 BEL Belgium 67.49 Europe & Central Asia High income

15 NOR Norway 66.98 Europe & Central Asia High income

16 ITA Italy 66.59 Europe & Central Asia High income

17 AUS Australia 66.58 Asia-Pacific High income

18 ESP Spain 66.30 Europe & Central Asia High income

19 CHN China 66.26 Asia-Pacific Upper middle income

20 AUT Austria 65.94 Europe & Central Asia High income

21 IRL Ireland 64.16 Europe & Central Asia High income

22 HKG Hong Kong SAR 63.08 Asia-Pacific High income

23 ARE United Arab Emirates 62.10 Middle East & North Africa High income

24 ISR Israel 60.95 Middle East & North Africa High income

25 NZL New Zealand 60.80 Asia-Pacific High income

26 EST Estonia 60.51 Europe & Central Asia High income

27 PRT Portugal 59.70 Europe & Central Asia High income

28 CZE Czech Republic 59.23 Europe & Central Asia High income

29 LTU Lithuania 58.70 Europe & Central Asia High income

30 BRA Brazil 58.40 Latin America & Caribbean Upper middle income

31 POL Poland 58.07 Europe & Central Asia High income

32 MYS Malaysia 57.43 Asia-Pacific Upper middle income

33 GRC Greece 56.66 Europe & Central Asia High income

34 HUN Hungary 56.44 Europe & Central Asia High income

35 IND India 55.69 Asia-Pacific Lower middle income

36 SAU Saudi Arabia 55.14 Middle East & North Africa High income

37 SVK Slovak Republic 54.68 Europe & Central Asia High income

38 THA Thailand 54.05 Asia-Pacific Upper middle income

49 Data Summary 

FPI Ranking ISO Country FPI Score (0-100) Geographic Region Income Group

39 TUR Turkey 54.02 Middle East & North Africa Upper middle income

40 MEX Mexico 53.98 Latin America & Caribbean Upper middle income

41 COL Colombia 53.46 Latin America & Caribbean Upper middle income

42 CHL Chile 53.33 Latin America & Caribbean High income

43 IDN Indonesia 53.27 Asia-Pacific Upper middle income

44 LVA Latvia 53.24 Europe & Central Asia High income

45 URY Uruguay 52.69 Latin America & Caribbean High income

46 BGR Bulgaria 51.79 Europe & Central Asia Upper middle income

47 ROU Romania 51.24 Europe & Central Asia High income

48 ARG Argentina 51.23 Latin America & Caribbean Upper middle income

49 VNM Viet Nam 50.42 Asia-Pacific Lower middle income

50 ZAF South Africa 50.29 Sub-Saharan Africa Upper middle income

51 PHL Philippines 48.38 Asia-Pacific Lower middle income

52 EGY Egypt 48.33 Middle East & North Africa Lower middle income

53 BHR Bahrain 47.84 Middle East & North Africa High income

54 OMN Oman 47.50 Middle East & North Africa High income

55 CRI Costa Rica 46.32 Latin America & Caribbean Upper middle income

56 JOR Jordan 46.09 Middle East & North Africa Lower middle income

57 KAZ Kazakhstan 46.06 Europe & Central Asia Upper middle income

58 PER Peru 45.95 Latin America & Caribbean Upper middle income

59 KWT Kuwait 45.54 Middle East & North Africa High income

60 KEN Kenya 45.41 Sub-Saharan Africa Lower middle income

61 MAR Morocco 44.82 Middle East & North Africa Lower middle income

62 PAN Panama 43.43 Latin America & Caribbean High income

63 TUN Tunisia 42.35 Middle East & North Africa Lower middle income

64 ECU Ecuador 42.19 Latin America & Caribbean Upper middle income

65 NGA Nigeria 41.66 Sub-Saharan Africa Lower middle income

66 BGD Bangladesh 41.01 Asia-Pacific Lower middle income

67 DOM Dominican Republic 40.69 Latin America & Caribbean Upper middle income

68 DZA Algeria 39.69 Middle East & North Africa Lower middle income

69 GTM Guatemala 38.71 Latin America & Caribbean Upper middle income

70 PAK Pakistan 36.84 Asia-Pacific Lower middle income

50 Data Summary 

Table A2.2: Future Possibilities Index – Scores per trend

Exabyte Wellbeing Net Zero Circular Biogrowth Experience

Country Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank
(0-100) (0-100) (0-100) (0-100) (0-100) (0-100)

Algeria 36.16 68 45.16 57 35.59 69 42.45 65 37.47 69 41.28 67

Argentina 50.38 55 59.07 30 44.03 51 54.40 39 47.45 55 52.01 46

Australia 75.57 6 64.01 23 59.15 18 69.64 10 63.32 22 67.80 13

Austria 66.29 23 65.21 18 64.58 9 64.32 20 67.64 16 67.58 14

Bahrain 52.51 48 46.45 54 48.89 44 47.37 54 42.49 63 49.32 51

Bangladesh 46.73 59 34.84 68 38.20 67 44.74 60 45.31 58 36.23 69

Belgium 64.17 26 73.44 5 63.11 13 66.86 17 73.65 10 63.70 19

Brazil 62.85 27 60.41 29 49.49 39 59.06 29 59.21 29 59.40 27

Bulgaria 54.72 43 45.07 58 48.79 45 52.50 43 54.82 44 54.82 37

Canada 76.99 4 70.53 6 64.21 10 69.70 8 66.45 17 68.65 9

Chile 55.93 41 47.00 53 53.19 33 50.94 48 54.46 46 58.45 30

China 75.12 7 66.22 16 56.55 27 72.73 2 64.04 20 62.87 21

Colombia 51.20 54 55.90 38 47.66 47 57.01 33 56.04 38 52.95 42

Costa Rica 47.40 58 40.21 65 49.27 41 49.67 51 39.69 65 51.64 47

Czech Republic 61.54 30 52.42 44 53.56 32 62.65 24 63.75 21 61.44 25

Denmark 72.97 10 70.41 7 73.67 1 71.23 5 74.35 7 65.07 17

Dominican Republic 43.48 64 39.53 66 41.67 61 39.92 69 36.63 70 42.94 63

Ecuador 42.45 65 41.13 64 41.97 59 40.35 68 45.87 57 41.38 66

Egypt 48.84 56 52.37 45 41.32 64 48.44 52 49.72 51 49.31 52

Estonia 66.78 21 56.00 37 57.92 22 62.09 25 63.29 23 56.96 34

Finland 72.13 12 64.63 20 70.28 3 67.26 16 71.96 11 63.71 18

France 72.24 11 68.77 11 61.69 14 69.06 11 76.40 3 68.44 10

Germany 74.16 9 69.59 9 61.68 15 71.70 4 77.60 1 69.91 3

Greece 59.64 35 62.53 26 54.06 31 50.49 50 55.30 40 57.96 31

Guatemala 34.57 69 34.42 69 39.34 66 44.30 61 37.57 68 42.01 65

Hong Kong SAR 70.61 16 69.61 8 58.42 21 66.52 18 51.29 48 62.01 23

Hungary 57.88 39 54.85 42 55.46 29 54.63 37 62.56 25 53.24 41

India 58.77 36 55.09 40 43.92 52 54.54 38 68.21 15 53.62 39

Indonesia 57.41 40 55.27 39 43.39 54 53.65 41 57.04 36 52.87 43

Ireland 67.84 19 66.85 15 58.45 20 63.51 23 65.12 19 63.18 20

Israel 67.29 20 68.03 12 57.09 25 57.75 32 56.87 37 58.67 29

Italy 64.98 25 67.60 13 57.41 24 70.09 7 70.21 13 69.25 7

Japan 71.50 14 74.52 3 59.55 17 67.48 15 76.46 2 69.75 5

Jordan 45.87 60 48.97 48 49.70 38 44.76 59 42.12 64 45.11 60

Kazakhstan 52.38 51 50.47 47 41.87 60 44.08 62 43.29 60 44.28 61

Kenya 47.65 57 44.19 61 43.36 55 43.33 64 50.55 49 43.35 62

51 Data Summary 

Exabyte Wellbeing Net Zero Circular Biogrowth Experience

Country Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank Score Rank
(0-100) (0-100) (0-100) (0-100) (0-100) (0-100)

Korea, Rep. of 75.59 5 74.82 2 63.99 11 65.23 19 74.35 7 68.79 8

Kuwait 52.33 52 45.50 56 43.14 56 42.15 66 44.47 59 45.65 59

Latvia 58.70 37 48.10 49 54.29 30 50.90 49 58.95 30 48.51 53

Lithuania 59.85 34 62.94 24 56.85 26 56.67 34 62.61 24 53.30 40

Malaysia 62.20 28 54.81 43 49.31 40 59.17 28 59.88 28 59.19 28

Mexico 54.31 44 56.27 36 43.59 53 58.15 31 55.28 41 56.26 35

Morocco 44.58 62 47.32 50 42.92 57 48.23 53 38.71 66 47.17 55

Netherlands 74.64 8 73.81 4 66.20 8 67.69 14 74.79 6 68.00 12

New Zealand 66.76 22 62.10 28 57.55 23 60.00 27 57.30 34 61.10 26

Nigeria 42.06 66 33.64 70 35.94 68 44.81 58 52.34 47 41.18 68

Norway 69.43 17 69.41 10 67.25 5 63.61 22 65.66 18 66.49 16

Oman 52.51 48 44.09 62 48.96 43 46.36 57 46.15 56 46.91 56

Pakistan 34.18 70 41.18 63 33.26 70 36.57 70 42.81 61 33.04 70

Panama 41.13 67 47.18 51 46.23 49 41.87 67 38.09 67 46.10 58

Peru 45.82 61 44.56 60 41.54 62 43.50 63 49.87 50 50.38 48

Philippines 52.50 50 47.10 52 42.67 58 52.65 42 49.14 53 46.22 57

Poland 61.01 31 58.29 31 51.19 36 60.29 26 60.01 27 57.65 32

Portugal 61.82 29 64.43 22 55.94 28 56.19 35 57.72 32 62.10 22

Romania 52.92 46 51.80 46 46.73 48 47.33 55 56.02 39 52.64 45

Saudi Arabia 60.25 33 57.45 33 52.18 35 52.08 44 54.63 45 54.25 38

Singapore 78.21 2 74.90 1 67.86 4 67.90 13 60.38 26 67.11 15

Slovak Republic 55.64 42 57.00 35 50.96 37 51.64 46 57.14 35 55.72 36

South Africa 52.60 47 57.18 34 41.39 63 52.02 45 48.53 54 50.04 49

Spain 68.52 18 62.40 27 59.58 16 68.37 12 69.05 14 69.88 4

Sweden 71.82 13 64.45 21 71.66 2 70.32 6 71.91 12 68.02 11

Switzerland 70.86 15 64.92 19 66.87 6 69.70 8 75.45 5 69.32 6

Thailand 60.47 32 54.87 41 46.15 50 55.06 36 54.90 43 52.85 44

Tunisia 44.09 63 37.89 67 40.19 65 46.62 56 42.63 62 42.72 64

Turkey 58.22 38 45.01 59 48.00 46 58.41 30 57.42 33 57.09 33

United Arab
65.03 24 65.76 17 58.52 19 63.94 21 57.86 31 61.48 24
Emirates

United Kingdom 77.16 3 67.30 14 66.34 7 73.74 1 75.61 4 72.21 2

United States 79.88 1 62.87 25 63.92 12 72.12 3 73.85 9 74.73 1

Uruguay 52.15 53 57.62 32 52.73 34 54.04 40 49.57 52 50.03 50

Viet Nam 53.25 45 45.52 55 49.18 42 50.97 47 55.24 42 48.37 54

52 Data Summary 

Table A2.3: Future Possibilities Index - Core Capacity sub-pillars scores (0-100)

Country Core Capacity Government Technology Innovation Talent Business- Market

Vision Friendliness Dynamics

Algeria 34.41 52.80 23.09 33.00 45.21 35.28 25.88

Argentina 41.43 41.03 34.49 35.74 52.45 51.15 37.29

Australia 61.73 69.13 59.60 62.72 61.23 78.07 44.78

Austria 60.61 56.52 53.78 56.64 65.74 72.83 60.12

Bahrain 50.05 68.16 41.86 35.54 57.25 56.52 47.87

Bangladesh 35.46 50.62 24.39 36.12 35.06 35.15 36.14

Belgium 61.60 64.38 53.27 58.57 58.83 74.20 62.28

Brazil 44.31 49.77 38.69 44.34 43.75 51.00 39.74

Bulgaria 46.01 52.26 48.13 34.07 52.59 55.10 38.22

Canada 63.18 71.27 60.52 69.77 59.35 76.27 46.68

Chile 51.31 55.70 45.93 49.49 51.80 61.73 45.10

China 60.71 73.36 61.32 66.89 48.27 57.30 60.14

Colombia 44.67 55.37 32.99 44.21 49.79 45.90 43.02

Costa Rica 43.71 47.31 32.80 36.97 53.36 57.52 39.62

Czech Republic 56.10 55.20 53.22 48.20 59.63 67.47 54.74

Denmark 65.92 68.80 63.60 60.72 68.13 82.84 54.70

Dominican Republic 38.95 54.46 22.42 32.27 52.39 43.11 39.21

Ecuador 36.53 41.98 24.78 32.52 47.83 45.20 32.46

Egypt 40.98 62.38 28.43 43.14 44.29 36.20 38.60

Estonia 56.13 59.45 55.12 51.44 63.78 70.45 41.29

Finland 61.74 67.85 61.06 61.07 63.97 79.47 43.05

France 61.94 62.56 58.20 64.11 61.18 71.42 55.35

Germany 63.47 61.79 57.67 65.56 59.90 75.68 61.75

Greece 50.92 55.58 46.40 42.29 62.69 59.57 42.79

Guatemala 32.71 43.88 17.81 31.49 39.26 35.46 35.78

Hong Kong SAR 66.66 70.50 69.17 57.29 67.04 75.32 62.21

Hungary 50.42 50.82 47.62 40.71 48.68 60.18 56.92

India 44.89 56.95 29.21 62.51 40.10 42.04 46.69

Indonesia 47.71 68.85 35.15 51.53 48.68 45.51 42.69

Ireland 61.01 64.47 52.81 56.46 61.76 74.81 58.05

Israel 60.42 59.67 60.18 65.02 61.09 63.20 53.98

Italy 56.35 60.02 50.01 54.77 58.16 65.78 50.88

Japan 59.64 61.55 64.95 65.98 50.60 73.93 45.61

Jordan 42.13 62.78 28.94 38.22 55.58 38.59 37.52

Kazakhstan 43.72 53.27 36.37 37.56 50.45 49.62 38.34

Kenya 37.07 54.74 21.65 39.41 43.44 43.50 29.40

Korea, Rep. of 65.38 64.85 66.13 68.38 59.93 71.78 61.90

53 Data Summary 

Country Core Capacity Government Technology Innovation Talent Business- Market

Vision Friendliness Dynamics

Kuwait 45.73 59.33 38.70 34.01 51.50 51.49 44.18

Latvia 49.53 49.51 51.76 40.02 58.61 64.11 38.31

Lithuania 53.56 55.57 54.84 47.95 59.15 63.78 42.83

Malaysia 55.84 68.03 44.53 54.41 60.09 59.18 51.73

Mexico 44.01 48.95 31.67 44.51 45.80 49.02 46.91

Morocco 41.13 55.10 29.16 37.63 48.91 42.49 38.51

Netherlands 64.58 61.21 60.21 59.10 64.05 80.44 64.63

New Zealand 58.99 64.86 53.22 53.53 65.01 77.79 45.09

Nigeria 30.55 46.47 16.59 39.43 34.38 27.39 28.40

Norway 60.04 66.77 62.35 54.82 57.55 79.27 45.01

Oman 47.37 68.12 37.79 38.76 53.67 52.07 40.55

Pakistan 33.02 39.18 19.27 37.56 41.00 30.24 36.85

Panama 39.10 43.76 26.10 32.67 47.77 50.54 39.68

Peru 40.41 43.47 27.80 36.20 52.28 46.31 41.10

Philippines 46.12 60.20 34.69 46.92 47.47 46.94 44.04

Poland 52.56 52.67 53.17 41.23 51.71 66.23 53.29

Portugal 54.21 50.38 51.26 46.67 62.01 70.92 47.90

Romania 46.62 44.65 47.49 41.10 48.02 53.19 46.15

Saudi Arabia 54.88 72.48 53.83 52.86 54.98 52.44 45.95

Singapore 72.87 84.22 72.33 63.23 66.94 79.66 72.91

Slovak Republic 49.56 46.57 48.53 38.42 52.14 63.02 51.90

South Africa 42.02 50.94 32.73 46.29 40.53 42.08 41.80

Spain 58.17 55.52 56.75 52.82 59.34 71.82 54.63

Sweden 62.71 66.01 59.47 61.13 60.34 81.61 51.48

Switzerland 68.25 67.64 62.97 62.40 71.14 79.55 67.23

Thailand 50.37 57.07 43.25 48.82 52.63 55.58 46.33

Tunisia 39.27 46.65 31.18 37.52 49.59 40.83 33.17

Turkey 48.70 53.53 38.03 46.61 58.63 46.01 52.12

United Arab Emirates 64.29 76.10 62.89 58.01 67.77 66.27 56.62

United Kingdom 64.72 69.04 58.06 64.87 63.46 74.78 59.57

United States 67.74 72.02 73.17 74.36 58.90 71.71 58.40

Uruguay 46.52 58.20 39.79 40.37 49.98 63.22 34.31

Viet Nam 50.75 58.30 44.42 44.28 51.07 55.62 52.42

54 Data Summary 

Table A2.4: Future Possibilities Index - Trend-specific sub-pillars scores (0-100)

Exabyte Economy Wellbeing Economy Net Zero Economy Circular Economy BioGrowth Economy Experience Economy

Industry Strength

Industry Strength

Industry Strength

Industry Strength

Industry Strength

Industry Strength
Strategy & Policy

Strategy & Policy

Strategy & Policy

Strategy & Policy

Strategy & Policy

Strategy & Policy

Trends Scores

Government

Government

Government

Government

Government

Government
Country

Algeria 42.32 45.68 28.39 66.83 34.26 44.17 28.20 69.50 23.45 48.04 29.96 57.30 32.12

Argentina 56.12 61.83 47.89 78.45 57.35 48.26 42.39 72.70 49.08 54.94 46.00 64.22 50.38

Australia 69.01 80.77 84.21 59.45 70.85 57.10 58.63 79.02 68.16 69.66 58.58 75.41 66.27

Austria 68.60 72.43 65.84 56.95 78.07 64.15 68.98 67.19 65.18 83.06 59.24 71.22 70.91

Bahrain 46.73 61.89 45.58 53.44 35.85 47.41 49.21 63.44 28.63 55.15 22.27 52.92 44.99

Bangladesh 43.78 66.03 38.71 37.90 31.16 41.64 37.51 65.23 33.51 68.78 31.71 46.44 26.77

Belgium 70.43 65.42 65.50 79.40 79.32 63.44 64.30 76.93 62.04 85.78 73.58 65.90 63.62

Brazil 65.45 80.03 64.22 81.86 55.06 48.32 55.83 74.13 58.74 74.24 59.08 78.09 55.79

Bulgaria 54.67 60.01 58.13 34.87 54.33 52.85 47.51 66.27 45.21 80.83 37.61 70.14 48.30

Canada 72.54 79.30 88.48 73.07 75.35 56.37 73.07 81.02 64.91 65.00 71.16 75.69 67.09

Chile 54.33 65.61 50.87 35.77 53.90 54.65 53.60 52.53 48.97 59.64 52.43 78.27 45.76

China 69.03 87.19 77.46 88.90 49.06 54.36 54.58 92.25 65.23 64.06 67.35 66.23 61.68

Colombia 57.86 66.12 42.82 77.93 45.10 52.82 45.49 77.84 48.51 77.26 46.20 65.67 48.50

Costa Rica 47.62 55.51 42.99 32.46 44.47 54.21 49.87 68.61 36.70 41.16 34.21 70.71 40.49

Czech Republic 60.79 61.91 66.61 35.74 65.43 54.93 49.66 71.97 59.89 82.71 52.43 72.61 55.61

Denmark 73.96 75.80 77.19 71.60 73.71 78.97 76.11 75.80 71.96 85.49 71.62 66.38 62.90

Dominican
41.57 53.91 37.57 46.15 33.48 44.57 41.50 48.05 32.77 41.07 29.87 50.27 39.60
Republic

Ecuador 45.02 53.10 37.73 48.20 38.67 46.59 42.79 41.35 43.16 65.94 35.13 45.60 42.02

Egypt 52.01 71.62 33.92 78.89 37.25 47.29 35.70 66.58 37.75 63.06 45.11 64.47 42.48

Estonia 62.70 76.54 67.67 53.12 58.75 61.28 56.35 70.94 59.21 82.49 51.24 64.31 50.45

Finland 71.62 78.84 75.81 57.52 74.64 75.56 73.55 69.70 70.33 85.00 69.12 75.14 54.24

France 73.18 72.61 82.17 60.21 84.15 56.66 66.48 67.88 77.35 84.59 82.69 67.22 76.16

Germany 74.42 73.38 85.61 59.72 85.57 53.27 68.30 75.99 75.64 85.83 83.50 73.18 73.08

Greece 59.53 65.36 62.63 78.37 58.29 58.52 52.73 51.85 48.71 68.75 46.22 63.36 59.60

Guatemala 41.70 39.90 31.11 33.70 36.85 45.01 40.30 64.19 36.02 42.90 37.09 59.88 33.46

Hong Kong
61.28 73.39 71.78 82.08 60.08 50.16 58.45 80.95 51.94 53.99 33.22 72.24 47.13
SAR

Hungary 59.44 64.53 58.68 52.03 62.10 58.75 57.21 63.02 50.43 82.67 54.59 59.81 49.48

India 61.10 71.52 59.89 77.63 42.75 42.51 44.37 63.90 54.84 84.47 75.27 62.46 53.53

Indonesia 56.06 77.46 47.07 84.94 33.16 50.09 32.38 71.04 42.21 73.32 50.08 65.94 44.97

Ireland 65.73 68.15 74.36 69.58 69.98 63.97 50.38 75.83 53.68 87.17 47.17 64.46 64.08

Israel 61.22 71.78 69.67 74.56 69.11 49.04 61.83 65.43 47.39 43.38 66.82 64.74 50.85

Italy 71.71 73.57 65.02 78.56 67.89 55.44 60.46 73.85 80.07 84.62 69.67 75.87 75.53
55 Data Summary 

Exabyte Economy Wellbeing Economy Net Zero Economy Circular Economy BioGrowth Economy Experience Economy

Industry Strength

Industry Strength

Industry Strength

Industry Strength

Industry Strength

Industry Strength
Strategy & Policy

Strategy & Policy

Strategy & Policy

Strategy & Policy

Strategy & Policy

Strategy & Policy

Trends Scores

Government

Government

Government

Government

Government

Government
Country

Japan 75.00 77.39 77.48 81.71 82.21 52.34 66.69 71.59 71.19 84.16 85.59 74.74 74.88

Jordan 48.07 64.43 31.06 61.68 43.11 58.31 48.66 61.07 31.07 55.21 29.03 58.87 34.34

Kazakhstan 47.23 72.05 41.36 65.10 42.60 44.88 37.02 56.97 31.54 53.03 33.12 49.24 39.87

Kenya 49.58 63.92 41.97 60.92 34.59 50.16 42.86 52.68 40.24 73.01 41.57 60.69 32.30

Korea, Rep. of 73.01 79.79 81.61 79.58 79.50 53.63 72.97 72.73 57.59 72.60 85.08 77.27 63.72

Kuwait 45.44 65.95 45.32 48.67 42.09 43.70 39.98 47.88 32.83 65.36 22.33 57.04 34.18

Latvia 55.10 67.83 58.75 42.28 52.49 61.97 51.36 62.43 40.74 81.90 45.43 61.47 34.52

Lithuania 61.28 65.72 60.28 73.39 61.86 62.99 54.00 64.50 51.96 83.23 51.04 60.08 46.26

Malaysia 58.22 76.36 54.39 65.38 43.22 52.27 39.80 72.34 49.35 71.90 51.90 75.86 45.88

Mexico 58.96 71.22 47.68 81.11 43.69 43.93 42.84 77.02 53.41 71.52 50.32 62.98 61.78

Morocco 46.67 59.97 32.63 66.09 34.73 50.75 36.89 70.45 33.12 39.68 35.31 55.71 44.67

Netherlands 73.99 75.93 83.40 79.15 77.71 60.51 73.51 70.02 68.49 82.11 77.69 74.95 64.47

New Zealand 61.71 75.50 65.77 58.38 68.94 58.63 55.03 77.28 43.74 53.81 59.09 73.78 50.53

Nigeria 47.22 59.29 36.34 40.70 29.69 45.12 32.16 69.55 34.33 87.33 39.15 62.59 30.39

Norway 70.44 72.82 75.43 80.82 67.36 64.55 77.15 74.09 56.71 85.23 51.72 79.91 59.53

Oman 47.56 70.92 39.26 50.34 34.57 54.18 45.34 60.48 31.23 68.94 22.15 54.55 38.79

Pakistan 38.75 41.01 28.52 62.47 28.03 30.27 36.51 41.72 34.96 53.70 41.71 36.24 29.87

Panama 45.60 48.66 35.63 50.53 51.90 48.90 50.68 51.62 34.89 44.68 30.50 54.94 44.25

Peru 48.72 58.44 38.62 52.39 40.89 42.65 41.56 47.81 42.29 71.76 37.45 65.01 45.73

Philippines 49.51 65.25 46.12 60.13 35.06 49.39 32.51 70.58 41.25 58.88 42.40 55.02 37.51

Poland 60.83 69.35 61.12 58.32 63.99 48.73 52.29 72.90 55.42 71.88 55.60 67.04 53.36

Portugal 62.45 69.14 62.10 73.34 65.75 61.05 52.58 62.29 52.06 67.47 51.47 71.09 61.01

Romania 53.55 61.03 51.12 53.61 55.19 51.37 42.20 53.49 41.87 79.30 42.13 61.69 49.60

Saudi Arabia 55.27 75.61 50.27 73.30 44.15 47.64 54.00 63.74 37.63 73.21 35.79 61.12 46.75

Singapore 67.66 85.36 76.39 82.90 68.94 64.08 66.64 72.09 58.75 50.92 57.34 72.71 55.76

Slovak
57.24 61.36 56.00 67.15 54.27 59.88 43.43 59.24 46.11 83.72 38.13 71.25 46.34
Republic

South Africa 54.43 68.07 47.70 83.47 46.05 46.89 35.24 67.08 46.97 57.83 45.73 67.85 40.25

Spain 70.36 73.78 73.59 61.51 67.52 57.61 62.95 72.89 74.06 84.55 64.42 73.74 77.75

Sweden 73.19 74.61 78.13 54.71 75.93 72.82 79.44 73.27 74.97 85.16 67.87 76.77 64.57

Switzerland 70.15 68.31 76.01 38.65 87.85 62.97 69.38 68.37 72.48 86.19 71.92 72.27 67.43

Thailand 55.89 73.75 57.30 69.94 44.29 49.85 38.22 69.11 45.69 64.53 49.80 59.11 49.08

Tunisia 43.90 64.03 28.96 36.70 37.69 49.71 31.58 66.57 34.01 53.34 35.29 47.68 41.21
56 Data Summary 

Exabyte Economy Wellbeing Economy Net Zero Economy Circular Economy BioGrowth Economy Experience Economy

Industry Strength

Industry Strength

Industry Strength

Industry Strength

Industry Strength

Industry Strength
Strategy & Policy

Strategy & Policy

Strategy & Policy

Strategy & Policy

Strategy & Policy

Strategy & Policy

Trends Scores

Government

Government

Government

Government

Government

Government
Country

Turkey 56.69 73.41 52.55 39.98 46.34 45.79 49.51 75.79 50.73 71.60 51.97 68.05 54.51

United Arab
61.00 77.83 52.97 82.37 50.63 53.21 58.06 77.27 50.26 80.01 29.28 69.78 50.38
Emirates

United
75.73 82.33 84.43 63.53 73.65 70.76 63.53 78.84 77.67 87.65 74.46 77.05 74.86
Kingdom

United States 72.97 82.46 89.42 42.74 78.12 53.44 70.57 76.71 71.91 73.95 79.86 77.28 79.17

Uruguay 55.77 65.46 44.46 73.50 52.83 60.67 51.00 66.82 48.79 64.50 37.69 58.60 44.96

Viet Nam 50.26 68.28 40.71 46.23 39.57 47.97 48.80 63.19 38.96 71.69 43.29 54.14 40.23
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