Artikel Kelompok D4

“China's Frail Q2 GDP Growth Raises Urgency for More Policy Support”

BEIJING, July 17 (Reuters) - China's economy grew at a frail pace in the second
quarter as demand weakened at home and abroad, with the post-COVID momentum
faltering rapidly and raising pressure on policymakers to deliver more stimulus to
shore up activity.

Chinese authorities face a daunting task in trying to keep the economic recovery on
track and putting a lid on unemployment, as any aggressive stimulus could fuel debt
risks and structural distortions.

Gross domestic product grew just 0.8% in April-June from the previous quarter, on a
seasonally adjusted basis, data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed
on Monday, versus analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll for a 0.5% increase and
compared with a 2.2% expansion in the first quarter.

On a year-on-year basis, GDP expanded 6.3% in the second quarter, accelerating

from 4.5% in the first three months of the year, but the rate was well below the
forecast for growth of 7.3%.

The annual pace was the quickest since the second quarter of 2021, although it was
heavily skewed by economic pains caused by stringent COVID-19 lockdowns in
Shanghai and other major cities last year.

"The data suggests that China's post-COVID boom is clearly over," said Carol Kong,
economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.

"The higher-frequency indicators are up from May's numbers, but still paint a picture
of a bleak and faltering recovery and at the same time youth unemployment is hitting
record highs."

The latest data raises the risk of China missing its modest 5% growth target for
2023, some economists say.
More timely June data, which was released alongside the GDP numbers, showed
China's retail sales grew 3.1%, slowing sharply from a 12.7% jump in May. Analysts
had expected growth of 3.2%.

Industrial output growth unexpectedly quickened to 4.4% last month from 3.5% seen
in May, but demand remains lukewarm.

Private fixed-asset investment shrank 0.2% in the first six months, a sharp contrast
to the 8.1% growth in investment by state entities, suggesting weak private business
confidence.

Recent data showed a rapidly faltering post-COVID recovery as exports declined the
most in three years due to cooling demand at home and abroad while a prolonged
downturn in the key property market has sapped confidence. The weak overall
momentum and global recession risks have raised expectations policymakers will
need to do more to shore up the world's second-biggest economy.

Authorities are likely to roll out more stimulus steps including fiscal spending to fund
big-ticket infrastructure projects, more support for consumers and private firms, and
some property policy easing, policy insiders and economists said.

But a quick turnaround is unlikely, analysts say.

All eyes are on an expected Politburo meeting later this month, when top leaders
could chart the policy course for the rest of the year.

NO 'SILVER BULLET'

Asia shares slipped, while the Chinese yuan eased after the underwhelming data.

While China is seen on track to hit its modest 2023 growth target, there are risks of
the annual goal being missed for the second year in a row.

"It was quite a disappointing number at just 6.3%, so clearly the momentum is
slowing down," said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets in
Singapore.
"At this pace of deceleration, there's now actually a risk that the growth target may
not be achieved - this 5% may not be achieved if the economy continues to
decelerate at this pace. So I think this does raise greater urgency for more policy
support soon."

China's economy grew just 3% last year due to COVID curbs, badly missing the
official target.

Most analysts say policymakers are unlikely to deliver any aggressive stimulus due
to worries about growing debt risks.

However, a deeper slowdown could stoke more job losses and fuel deflationary risks,
further undermining private-sector confidence, they said.

Youth jobless rate climbed to 21.3% in June from 20.8% in May, a new record high,
as graduates scrambled for limited offers during the job hunting season.

China's property sector, which accounts for about a quarter of the economy, remains
firmly in a downtrend, with new home prices for June stalling.

Property investment slumped 20.6% in June year-on-year after a 21.5% drop in May,
according to Reuters calculations.

A senior central bank official said on Friday that the bank will use policy tools such as
the reserve requirement ratio(RRR) and medium-term lending facility to weather
economic challenges.

Last month, the central bank cut its benchmark lending rates by a modest 10 basis
points.

Some China observer have blamed the "scarring effects" caused by years of strict
COVID measures and regulatory curbs on the property and technology sectors -
despite recent official efforts to reverse some curbs to support the economy.

A few economists have flagged the risk of a balance sheet recession, as Chinese
households and private firms build up savings and reduce borrowing and spending
after three years of COVID curbs.
"We expect to see monetary policy easing in coming months and targeted fiscal
supports given to key industries, including real estate and construction," Harry
Murphy Cruise, economist at Moody’s Analytics, said in a note.

"But that extra support won’t be a silver bullet. Increasingly, 2023 is looking like a
year to forget for China."

Sumber: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-q2-gdp-growth-slows-08-qq-
just-above-expectations-2023-07-17/
Diploma 3 Akuntansi_Komang Marlita Nadiananta Triana_2207311006

Simple past:

1. China's economy grew at a fragile pace in the second quarter.

- In this sentence, the main verb is "grew," which is the simple past form of the
verb "grow." This verb 2 shows that China's economic growth occurred in the past.

2. Gross domestic product grew just 0.8% in April-June from the previous quarter.

- In this sentence, the main verb is "grew," which is also the simple past form of
the verb "grow." This shows that gross domestic product (GDP) growth only
occurred in the past.

3. On a year-on-year basis, GDP expanded 6.3% in the second quarter.

- In this sentence, the main verb is "expanded," which is the simple past form of
the verb "expand." This verb 2 shows that GDP expansion occurred in the past.
Diploma 3 Akuntansi_Ni Made Novi Suantari_2207311001

Past perfect:

1. The rate was well below the forecast for growth of 7.3%.

- In this sentence, the main verb is "was," which is the simple past tense form of
the verb "be" in singular form.

- The verb "was" is used to express a situation or characteristic that occurred in

the past. Here, “was” indicates that the growth rate was below expectations at a
particular time in the past.

- Another verb in this sentence is "below," which is an additional verb that

describes the position or relationship of the growth rate to the estimate.

2. The annual pace was the fastest since the second quarter of 2021, although it
was heavily skewed by economic pains caused by strict COVID-19 lockdowns in
Shanghai and other major cities last year.

- In this sentence, the main verb is "was," which is also the simple past tense form
of the verb "be" in singular form (for the singular subjects "the annual pace" and "it").

- The verb "was" is used to express a situation or characteristic that occurred in

the past. Here, "was" indicates the fastest annual pace since the second quarter of
2021 at a specific time in the past.

- Other verbs in this sentence include "skewed" and "caused," which describe
states or actions in the past.
Diploma 3 Akuntansi_I Kadek Suma Wirawan_2207311020

Past progressive:

1. Private fixed-asset investment shrank 0.2% in the first six months.

- In this sentence, the main verb is "shrank," which is the simple past tense form of
the verb "shrink."

- The form of to be in this sentence is "was," which is the past tense form of the
verb "be" in singular form (for the singular subject "private fixed-asset investment").

- In this sentence, the verb "was" is used to form the past progressive tense along
with the verb 2 "shrank." In this case, "was" indicates an action that was taking place
in the past.

2. Industrial output growth unexpectedly quickened to 4.4% last month from 3.5%
seen in May.

- In this sentence, the main verb is "quickened," which is the simple past tense
form of the verb "quicken."

- The form of to be in this sentence is "was," which is the past tense form of the
verb "be" in singular form (for the singular subject "industrial output growth").

- In this sentence, the verb "was" is used to form the past progressive tense
together with the verb 2 "quickened." In this case, "was" indicates an action that was
taking place in the past.
Diploma 3 Akuntansi_Tryvena antika_2207311009

Simple past tense

1. “The annual pace was the quickest since the second quarter of 2021, although it
was heavily skewed by economic pains caused by stringent COVID-19 lockdowns in
Shanghai and other major cities last year."

- This sentence is an example of the simple past tense because it describes an

action that happened in the past without indicating a connection to any other specific
past event. The verb "was" indicates a single event that occurred in the past,
reflecting the state of the annual pace at a specific point in time, without any intricate
temporal relationship to other events. The absence of complex temporal markers or
auxiliary verbs like "had" signifies the straightforward depiction of a past occurrence.
Consequently, the use of the simple past tense helps establish a clear timeline,
illustrating a specific past state without complicating the temporal sequence with
other events.

2. "China's economy grew just 3% last year due to COVID curbs, badly missing the
official target"

- The use of "grew" denotes a specific event that occurred in the past. The
mention of "last year" clearly anchors the action to a particular time in the past. The
phrase "due to COVID curbs" emphasizes a condition that affected the growth,
solidifying the past context. Furthermore, the phrase "badly missing" highlights the
failure to meet the target, portraying an action that happened before the present.
Collectively, these linguistic elements demonstrate an event that has already taken
place, illustrating a situation in the past.

3. Youth jobless rate climbed to 21.3% in June from 20.8% in May, a new record
high, as graduates scrambled for limited offers during the job hunting season"

- is in the simple past tense because it describes an action that occurred at a

specific time in the past. The use of "climbed" and "scrambled" indicates actions that
happened in the past. The specific mention of "in June" and "in May" further solidifies
the timeframe as past. The description of the youth jobless rate and the job hunting
season in the past context cements the sentence's simple past tense structure.
Diploma 3 Akuntansi_Ni Kadek Novita Ayu Pratiwi_2207311007

Past progressive

1. China's economy grew just 3% last year due to COVID curbs, badly missing
the official target.
- In this sentence, Using the word “grew” and besides that also using the
world “last year” which signifies the era when there was COVID, or before.
2. China's property sector, which accounts for about a quarter of the economy,
remains firmly in a downtrend
- There is a sentence "in a downtrend" indicating that the property sector is
currently on a downward trend, and the sentence emphasizes that the
current trend of the property sector is ongoing and not over.
3. Chinese authorities face a daunting task in trying to keep the economic
recovery on track and putting a lid on unemployment.
- In that sentence, use the word "are facing" which is the past progressive
tense of the word "face". "Are facing" is used to describe that to this day,
Chinese authorities still face challenges in making efforts to sustain
economic recovery and control unemployment.