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Summary
PREDICTION OF FERTILIZER SALES USING METHOD
LEAST SQUARE
(Case Study: UD. Sang Tani, Gorontalo Regency)
By :
ALWID ISMAIL
T3118032
9
RESEARCH PROPOSAL
DEGREE PROGRAM
FACULTY OF COMPUTER SCIENCE
ICHSAN GORONTALO UNIVERSITY
GORONTALO
2023
PIG
INTRODUCTION
5
1.1 Background
In agricultural activities it is very necessary to support success
5
production, one of which is fertilizer. Fertilizer is an organic material or
inorganics of natural or artificial origin that are applied directly or
5
indirectly to plants to add certain necessary nutrients
for plant growth. Fertilizer is one of the production factors
important in the agricultural sector, especially to increase food production
[1].
5
Based on distribution and procurement, fertilizers are divided into fertilizers
subsidized and non-subsidized fertilizer. Non-subsidized fertilizer is fertilizer that is purchased and
distributed outside the State program and does not receive subsidies, non-fertilizer
Subsidies can be distributed anywhere without location restrictions. Farmers often
faced with unaffordable prices at the farmer level and difficulty finding them
5
fertilizer distributor. Lack of fertilizer can cause plant growth
becomes abnormal so that it can reduce farmer productivity or even
causing crop failure.
UD. Farming is a form of entrepreneurship whose activity is selling
5
goods without processing for income purposes. UD. The Thani is wrong
one non-subsidized fertilizer seller in Kec. Telaga Biru, and is one of them
companies engaged in selling fertilizers directly to consumers and
farmer. This business provides various types of fertilizer without subsidies. Non-fertilizer
subsidies include Ponska and Urea.
Competing in the business world, especially the fertilizer business, demands UD. In
in order to improve services in the sale of agricultural fertilizers. There is

Competition in fertilizer sales has a significant impact on
sales at UD. Sang Thani, this can be seen in the fertilizer trade
1
trading is uncertain in 2021. Below is sales information
non-subsidized fertilizer at UD. Farmers in 2021:
Table 1.1. Reporting data on fertilizer sales in 2021
ponska Urea
month
Surviving sold 10 tons 10 Survive 25 sold
January tons 15 tons 15 tons 30 tons 10 25 tons
February tons 21 tons 50 tons 38 tons 6 tons
March tons 20 tons 18 tons
April 40 tons 45 tons
Possible 50 tons 64 tonnes 50 tons 33 tons
June 50 tons 78 tonnes 30 tons 44 tons
July 50 tons 33 tonnes 50 tons 23 tons
August 25 tons 42 tonnes 20 tons 25 tons
September 40 tons 22 tonnes 15 tons 27 tons
October 15 tons 30 tonnes 25 tons 34 tons
November 35 tons 45 tonnes 40 tons 32 tons
December 40 tons 11 tons 30 tons 25 tons
Source: UD. Farmer, 2022
Based on the data in the table above, you can see the amount
Fertilizer sales are due to erratic figures each month
competition with similar businesses in fertilizer sales. Other problems
is the number of sales that shift from distributors directly to retailers
even farmers, resulting in a lot of unsold fertilizer and
pile of fertilizer. To overcome the above problems, a prediction process is needed
to determine which type of fertilizer will be sold in large quantities next month, so the UD warehouse
not full. Farmer.
This prediction had a big impact on UD's decision. Farmers decide
that more fertilizer should be applied. So when ordering fertilizer
in large quantities it is known that only a small amount of fertilizer is sold, so
planning was carried out by UD. Farmers are less efficient. Forecast or estimate
Accurate sales can be used as the main reference in planning
sales, so that in the future you can find out what sales are
You do too much or too little which can cause

the company loses the opportunity to sell goods. to customers or
general public [3].
The method used for predictions in this research is method

3
least squares. The least squares method is a time series data method
requires past sales data to predict future sales

6
to determine the results. Least Square is a forecasting technique
used to see trends in time series data [4]. Least squares method
2
is the sum of the quadrant deviations of the data values from the minimum trend line
or smallest. The characteristic of this method is determining the parameter X. After

35
these parameters, the input variable used in this research is month
(X1) and stock (X2), and the output variable is the predicted number of goods.
fertilizer sales next month (Y).
previous research by Intan Kurnia Permatasari, 2019. Trend analysis
sales using the Least Square method at Private Pharmacies in
Surabaya.In a trend analysis study, sales of drugs and medical equipment in pharmacies
private sector increases every quarter. Sales in the second quarter increased 8.69 percent
compared to the first quarter. Sales in the third quarter increased 17.67 percent
compared to the second quarter. In the fourth quarter, sales increased by 8.65%,
different from the third quarter [6].
Based on this background, the author raises the title "Sales
Fertilizer Using the least squares method" (Case Study: UD. Farmer).
1.2 Identify the problem
Based on the description of the subject matter above, to determine the subject
matter:
1. Accumulation and shortages often occur in fertilizer storage at UD.Petani.
2. UD. Farmers do not yet have a sales forecasting system in fertilizer month
front.
20
1.3 Problem formulation
Based on the problem definition above, the problem can be formulated as

following:
1. Can Least Squares be used to predict sales? Fertilizer in

UD.Petani?
2. What results from the accuracy of the sales forecast for fertilizer use
least squares method?
20
1.4 Research objectives
Based on the problem formulation above, the objectives of this research are:
1. Study the results of using the least squares method to predict
Fertilizer sales at UD.Petani.

2. Understand the level of accuracy of fertilizer sales estimates using the method
least squares.
1.5 Research benefits

It is hoped that this research will be useful, namely
1. Make theoretical contributions to the development of science

knowledge and technology, especially in the field of informatics, namely with
upgrading the “Small Box” method of data processing.

2. In practice, contribute to the review of ideas, works, materials for
produce a quality system.

CHAPTER II
THEORETICAL BASIS
2.1 Study Overview

33
The following is some previous research related to this research:
Table 2.1 Relevant studies

IT researcher TITLE Results
DA
K
1 Rizki Quadratic method The result of this research is that

Maulidya, smallest (least forecasting using the least squares
Rizaldi, Endra square method) method can make it easier for
Saputra, shops to provide basic food
is a tool for predicting
2021.[7] supplies in the following month.
sales of staple goods
From the total calculation of staple
at Suryono stores. foods, the lowest MAD yield was
16.51 and MAPE yield was 1.73%.
11 11
2 Ricky Maulana The data The procedure used in this
Fauzi and research is called the least
Dadang application of squares method or usually called
Iskandar mining uses the the least squares method.
Mulyana, Least Square method Testing the prediction results
2021.[8] to predict using MAPE (Mean Absolute
sales of LED lights Percentage Error) calculations
at PT. Resource produced a result11 of 8.0744%,
dynamics solutions where this value range concludes
model's that the forecasting
ability is very good, because the
value is below 10%.
3 Ria Anggraini Forecasting The results of testing the least

Valangadi, Irma Bicycle Sales squares method on this system
Sun Motorcycle provide a very good level of
Use prediction accuracy with
5
7
Kumala, 2019.[ Method Least The accuracy value is 78.05%
9] Squares and the mean absolute percentage
error (MAPE) value is 21.95%.
The accuracy results can be
classified as showing that the
application developed is suitable
for use in forecasting bicycle
sales. Increasing the motorcycle.
amount of data can optimize the

least squares method to produce
more precise and accurate
predictions.
2.2 Literature review

19
2.2.1 Sales
Sales is one of the marketing and company functions
obtain profits for the continuity of company operations. Activity
5
Sales are the main income for the company, because if activities
If sales of products and services are not managed well, this can result directly
detrimental to the company. This may be caused by failure to reach
desired sales targets and reduced revenue. Draft
trade is very extensive. Some call it science, some don't
call it art, and there are also those who include deep ethical issues
trading.
2.2.2 Fertilizer
Fertilizer is a chemical compound with nutrients that are good for
plant growth. The fertilizer used is usually compound fertilizer
with plant materials or applied directly to plants, becoming nutrients
for optimal plant growth and development. The function of fertilizer is
provide nutrients to overcome nutrient deficiencies in the media
plant. Nutrients necessary for plants with lots of phosphorus, nitrogen and
potassium; And for calcium, magnesium, iron, copper, boron and zinc elements
needed in small quantities (Susetya, 2004).[2]
2.2.2 Prediction
Forecasting/forecasting is determining the number of requests in a month

7
The next is related to historical data or series
time/period being analyzed, so that calculations can be made for
predict the number of requests in the future. Moon Forecast does not
can only be used for time series prediction but also for classification
because it can develop classes based on available attributes [3].
17
2.2.3 Data Mining
Data mining is the process of extracting and identifying patterns
important in the data to manually extract additional value from
database in the form of data that was previously unknown by means of extraction
pattern of data or ma. . located in the database [6].
Data mining stages are:

1. Pre-treatment/ Purification
36
This step aims to eliminate unnecessary data noise
consistent. This way, the data will be more efficient to extract
pattern.
2. Data integration
Shard data sources can be combined. As you can see, data

in a fragmented database, so the data must be combined to
form the correct pattern.
3. Data selection
40
Data relevant to the analysis task is returned to the database.
4. Change the data
26
Data is collected and converted into an appropriate form for
mining with performance summaries or aggressive operations.
5. Data mining
An important process where intelligent methods are used to
get sample data. This process aims to discover
useful and hidden knowledge of data by using
the right method.
6. Form assessment
Identify some particularly interesting patterns that represent knowledge
based on some interesting activities.
7. Presentation of knowledge
Overview visualization and knowledge techniques are used to present
extracted knowledge to the user. This representation
implemented with decision trees, and its knowledge output
in the form of a set of rules compiled based on processed data.

25
Data mining is not a new field. One of the difficulties in
defining data mining is that data mining inherits many aspects and techniques
from previously existing scientific fields. Starting from several disciplines
science, data mining aims to improve traditional methods [8].
a. Large amounts of data
b. The height of the data dimension
c. Information that is heterogeneous and different in nature

15
Mining data grouping is divided into several groups, namely:
1) Clarification
Description is a way to describe patterns and trends in data
saved.
2) Take a guess
Evaluation is similar to classification, only the evaluation target variable is

15
is numerical, not categorical. Models installed using
a complete record representing the value of the target variable as a predicted value.
3) prophecy
Prediction estimates unknown values and predicts values
in the future
4) Classification
28
Classification includes target categorical variables, for example classification
Income can be divided into three categories, namely high, middle and
low.
5) Groupness
Notes, observation or focus and formation of the same class of objects.
6) Association
Associations are tasked with finding the attributes that occur. In the world
business, this is better known as shopping cart analysis.
2.2.4 Least Square method

3
Squarest is a time series data method that requires data
past sales to predict future sales to determine
19
the result. Least Square is a forecasting technique used to see trends
on time series data. Equation 1 is the least squares method equation
[8].
3
y = a + bx (1)
Information:
Y: Number of sales
a and b: coefficients
x: specific time in code form

7
An alternative way that is often used to determine the x/t value is by
provide a score or code. In this chapter the data is divided into two parts, namely:[11]
1. If the data is even, the x value is the score: ......,-5,-3,-1,1,3,5,......
2. The data is odd, so the x value is the score: ......,-3,-2,-1,0,1,2,3,.....
Then solve equations 2 and 3 to find the coefficients a and b.
= ÿY
n
(2)
= ÿxY
(3)
ÿx²
10
2.2.5 Apply the methodMost square
Examples of application of the least squares method in forecasting situations
Honda motorbike sales.
Table 2.2 Motorcycle sales data
month Beat Varies Copy

2
November 16 25 4
December 20 17 4
January 22 21 3
February 23 21 5
March 13 15 6
April 17 23 4
May 24 15 4
month Beat Varies Copy
2
June 21 18 2
July 24 25 4
August 23 24 5
September 20 21 4
October 22 21 4
Example of Beat motorbike calculation:
Table 2.3 Calculation of Motor Beat

2
month Sales (Y) X XY XX
November 16 -11 -176 121

December 20 -9 -180 81
January 22 -7 -154 49
February 23 -5 -115 25
March 13 -3 -39 9
April 17 -1 -17 1
May 24 24 1
June 21 1 63 9
July 24 3 120 25
August 23 5 161 49
September 20 7 180 81
October 22 9 242 121
245 11 0 109 572
To find the values of a and b we need:
ÿ = 245/12 = 20.4166667
6
The value of X for November 2017 is 13, so:
11
Y = 20.4166667 + 0.190559441 (13)
u = 20.4166667 + 0.190559441
u = 22.89
This means that sales of Beat motorbikes in November 2017 are estimated
as many as 22.89 units.
Table 2.4 Calculation of vario motors
month Sale X XY XX
(Y)
November 25 -11 -275 121

December 17 -9 -153 81
January 21 -7 -147 49
February 21 -5 -105 25
March 15 -3 -45 9
April 23 -1 -23 1
May 15 15 1
June 18 1 54 9
July 25 35 125 25
August 24 7 168 49
September 21 9 189 81
October 21 11 231 121
245 0 34 572
= 246/12 = 20.5
= 34/572 = 0.059440559
2
The value of X for November 2017 is 13, so: Y = 20.5 + 0.059440559 (13)
u = 20.5 + 0.772727273
u = 21.27
This means that sales of Vario motorbikes in November 2017 are estimated
as many as 21.27 units.
2
Table 2.5 Calculation of the Scopy motor
month Sales (Y) X XY XX

12
November 4 -11 -44 121
December 4 -9 -36 81
January 3 -7 -21 49
February 5 -5 -25 25
March 6 -3 - 18 9
April 4 -1 -4 1
May 4 1 4 1
June 2 3 6 9
July 4 5 20 25
August 5 7 35 49
September 4 9 36 81
October 4 11 44 121
49 0 -3 572
ÿ = 49/12 = 4.083333333
b = -3/572 = -0.005244755
The value of X for November 2017 is 13, so:
Y = 4.083333333 + -0.005244755 (13)
Y = 4.083333333 + -0.068181818
u = 4.015
This means that sales of Scopy motorbikes in November 2017 are estimated
as many as 4,015 units.
To find out whether the prediction results use the quadratic method
2
smallest is successful, you need to compare the results of the prediction with the results
actual trading. After all the data is entered, predictions are made with
using 3 month test data, namely August, September and October
The following is the forecast data and the original data:

2
Table 2.6 Forecast data and original data
Type Real Test

13
Beat 23 22.6
Beat 20 22.2
Beat 22 23.6
Vario 24 18.8
Vario 21 21.1
Vario 21 21.9
Scoppy 5 3.1
Scoppy 4 4
2
Scoppy Scoppy 3.9
The author uses correlation theory to determine the correlation between data
predictions. Using the correlation formula:
cov(X, Y)
,= … … … … … … … (1)
SXSY
A correlation value of 0.97 was obtained from the results of correlation calculations.
Based on the correlation value, which is 0.97, if there is a correlation
is very strong, so it can be said that the prediction can use the quadratic method
smallest.
22
2.2.6. MAPE (mean absolute percentage error)
MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) is a measure
Relative error. MAPE is generally more useful than MAD because
MAPE shows the percentage error in the yield estimate
request real on time certain Which provide
the percentage of data error is too high or too low to calculate
prediction error in this system, the author uses the MAPE (Mean
Absolute Percentage Error) [8].

| ÿ ÿ|
ÿ ÿ100%
= (2.10)
Where:
ÿ
=
14
= ÿ
4
2.2.7. System development
According to Jogiyanto (2005:41), the system development process goes through
several stages from the time the system is planned until the system is implemented,
operated and maintained. If the operation being developed still encounters
problems that cannot be resolved at the maintenance stage, then the system
3
must be redesigned to eliminate it, and the process returns to the stage
The first is the system planning stage. This cycle is called the system life cycle.
1
The system development cycle or life cycle is a form that is used
to describe the main stages and stages
is in the development process. The following steps were used [10]:
Figure 2.1. System Development Life Cycle [10]
2.2.8 System planning
Information system development policies are carried out by management

10
peak because they want to achieve existing abilities, because they cannot be achieved
3
by the old system or there are many weaknesses in the old system that are necessary
repaired. After top management determines development policies
information system, it must be planned carefully before development

15
system itself. This system planning includes an assessment of needs

physical, labor, and resources required to support
development of this system and to support operations after implementation.
[11]
Things to consider during the system planning stage:
1
1. Technical and economic factors relate to the likelihood of system success
information developed and used.
2. Strategic Factors Business objectives are reviewed for each proposed project
4
related to information system support. The resulting value is evaluated
to determine which system projects have the highest priority
2.2.9 System analysis
According to Kusrini (2007:40), the system analysis stage begins because of existence
request for a new system. The request may come from

supervisors/managers who see problems or discover new opportunities
outside the information systems department. But sometimes the initiative to
4
developing a new system comes from the responsible party
develop the information system. The main goal of systems analysis
is to determine in detail what the system will do
proposed. [11]
In the analysis of decision support systems, the creation stages are carried out
models, namely:
1. The feasibility study process consists of determining objectives, searching procedures,
data collection, problem definition, determination of problem ownership,

until finally the formulation of the problem.
2. Model design process. At this stage, the model that will be used is formed
criteria to be determined. After that, look for alternative models that can be used
solve this problem. The next step is
predict possible outcomes. Next, determine the model variables.
After presenting several alternative models, at this stage
16
1
determine the model that will be used in the decision support system
which will be built.
At the system analysis stage, there are main steps that must be taken
carried out by system analysts, namely:
a. determination, Identification of the problem (recognition) is the first step in the stage
systems analysis. Problems can be defined as necessary questions
solved. The problem clarification step is very important because it is decisive
success of the next step.
b. tell it, namely understanding the function of the existing system. This step
This can be done by studying in detail how the existing system works.
To study the performance of this system requires data that can be obtained
by conducting research.
c. analyze, system analysis without reporting.
d. report, is to create a report on the results of the analysis. Purpose of presenting analysis results
is to illustrate the completeness of the analysis. [11]
3
2.2.10 System design
Design tools are necessary when designing a system. At this stage
system developers can define system architecture, design descriptions
system concepts, designing databases, designing interfaces, and creating schemas
application. One of the tools that can be used to create a retrieval system
decision is a Data Flow Diagram (DFD). DFD is used for
describes the origin of the data and the destination of the data leaving the system, place
data storage, processes that produce data, and interactions between that data
stored by the process that uses it. data or process. for information.
[12]
1
According to John Burch and Gary Grudnitsky, system design can
defined as describing, planning, and sketching or
organize several separate elements into an integrated whole and
functional. (Jogiyanto, 2005: 196). [10]
The system design stage has two main objectives:

17
1. To meet the needs of system users.
2. Provide clear drawings and comprehensive design for
computer programmers and other technical professionals.
System design is divided into two, namely system design
general and detailed system design.
1. General System Design (General System Design)
At the design stage, the general components of the information system are designed
not for programming, but rather for communication with users.

1
The information system components designed are models, output, input, database,
technology and management. (Jogiyanto, 2005: 211). [10]

A. General model design
System analysis can design the proposed information system model
in the form of physical systems and logical models. System diagrams are valid tools
To describe a physical system, a logical model can be described using
data flow diagram. (Jogiyanto, 2005: 211). [10]
A system diagram is a diagram that shows the workflow of a system

4
overall. System flow diagrams are drawn using symbols
following:
Table 2.5. List of document schema characters
Thump
The name of the icon Symbol Information
an.
1. Terminal Show start and end

Process
Represents input and output
2. Document documents in manual, mechanical,

computer processes or
Indicates manual operation
3. Manual action
18
Thump
an.
Displays non-PC file archives in
N A C numerical order (numerical),
8
4. Save offline alphabetical (alphabet), or date
(chronological).
5. Show I/O using punch cards

Plunging card
Shows computer software operating

6. Process
process activities
8
Indicates operations performed
7. External operation other than computer operations
Explains the process of sorting

Offline
8. data outside the computer process
qualification
And
Show it out using magnetic tape
9. Magnetic tape
Displays input and output using the

10. Hard disk hard disk
Show input and output using a

11. Diskette floppy disk
It shows entry and exit using a

magnetic drum
12. Magnetic drum
Perforated Indicate ingress and egress using

8
13. paper tape perforated paper tape
Display input
14. Keyboard using the online keyboard
Shows the output displayed on the

15. Show monitor
19
Thump
an.
Demonstrates the use of control tape
in batch control summaries for
Clause consistency in batch processing
16.
Management
Shows the process of data transfer

8
over a communication channel
17. relationship
Shows process progress

18 Flow lines
Show the explanation

19 Explanation process
Show links to the same page or other

20 Communications pages
(Source: Jogiyanto HM, 2005: 802) [10]

31
Data flow diagrams (DAD) or data flow diagrams (DFD) are used
to facilitate the description of existing systems or new systems so that
can be developed logically, and regardless of the physical medium through which the data travels
or physical media provided. data is saved.
4
Table 2.6. List of document flow diagram symbols
No Symbol Information
1.
The progress bar shows information from
input to output
20
No Symbol Information
2. External entities are internal entities

34
external environment of the system, which can
in the form of people, organizations, or other systems
in the external environment

1
provide access to and from the system.
3. The flow or flow of data describes
movement of data packets or information from
one part to another, where
storage refers to place
storing the data.
4. Used for storage models,
collection of data, or data package
(Source: Jogiyanto, 2005: 700-807) [10]
B. General output design
Output is the information system output that can be seen. Output

1
includes various types such as paper output and soft media output. Besides
That is, output can be the output of a process that is used by the process
and stored on media such as tape, disk, or card. What is meant by
the output at this design stage is what is produced with the display above
paper or video screen. (Jogiyanto, 2005:213). [10]
C. General input design
1
Input devices are divided into 2, namely direct input devices
(online input devices) and indirect input devices (input devices
offline). Direct input devices are input devices that are connected directly
21
with the processor, while indirect input devices are input devices
which is not directly connected to the processor. (Jogiyanto, 2005: 214) [10]
D. General database design
A database is a collection of data linked together, stored in

1
outside the computer, and used by certain software to manage it.
A database system is an information system that integrates data sets
are interrelated and available for various applications within an organization.
(Jogiyanto, 2005: 217).10]
2). Detailed System Design (Detailed System Design)
A. DesignOUT Again
A detailed output design is designed to determine what and
how the output of the new system will look. Detailed output design
divided into two, namely the output design in the form of a report to the operator
1
paper and the output design is in the form of a dialog on the terminal screen. (Jogiyanto,
2005:362). [10]
1. Output design in the form of reports: designed to produce
output in the form of a paper report. The most common form of report
used are tables and graphs or diagrams. (Jogiyanto, 2005:362). [10]
2. Designing output in the form of terminal screen dialogue: designing conversations
between system users or users and computers. This dialogue is possible

1
including entering data into the system, displaying information
log out to the user, or both.
B. DesignInsertAgain
Input is the beginning of information processing. Information raw materials
is data that results from operations carried out by an organization. The data
obtained from the results of transactions entered into the information system. Output
An information system cannot be separated from data input. Entry planning
details begin with designing the main document as the first entry. If
the underlying document is not well designed, written input
maybe not true. (Jogiyanto, 2005:375). [10]

22
The main functions of documents when working with data streams:

1
1. It can determine the type of data to be collected and retrieved.
2. Can be recorded clearly, consistently and accurately.
3. Complete information can be pushed due to primary documents
List the required information one by one.

C. Detailed database design
A database is a collection of data linked together, stored in

24
outside the computer, and used by certain software to manage it.
Database is one of the important components in an information system,
because it is the basis for providing information to users.

1
The use of databases in information systems is called database systems. (Jogiyanto,
2005: 400). [10]
2.2.11 System options
This stage is the stage of selecting the tools used for the system
information. Required knowledge for system selectors includes
knowledge about who provides the technology, how to have it,
and much more. When choosing a system, you need to know the method
evaluation to complete the system [11].
2.2.12. System implementation
According to Kusrini (2007:43), system implementation is the application stage
system so it is ready to use. Many activities are carried out in this phase,
include: [11]
1. Software programming and testing

1
Programming is the activity of writing programs to be executed by
computer. The program code must be based on the documentation
provided by the systems analyst as a result of system design.
2. Hardware and software installation
The process of installing existing hardware and software.
3. Training for users

23
Humans are an important factor in information systems. If you want to
successful in information systems, then the employees involved must
given understanding and knowledge of information systems, positions
and his duties.

4. Create a document
10
5. Documentation is a record of each step in the work
creating a program from start to finish. [11]
2.2.13. system improvements
Information system maintenance is repair, maintenance, solving

1
problems, development of existing systems. This maintenance is necessary for
improve the effectiveness and efficiency of existing systems so that they can be used effectively
optimal. Several reasons why we need to maintain the existing system
is: we can improve system/system performance and adapt to
changes so that the existing system is not left behind [13].
Implementation of SDLC and modeling techniques and supporting tools

4
professional is the best thing you can do to improve
system sustainability.
Types of system maintenance include:
1. Corrective maintenance is maintenance that corrects errors
errors found in the system while the system is running.
2. Adaptive Maintenance: Maintenance that aims to adapt
to the changes that occur.
3. Continued Maintenance: This maintenance is intended to improve the system
system work.
4. Preventive maintenance: This maintenance aims to complete
existing problems.
2.2.14. Test the system
System testing is an important element of quality assurance
software and represents the fundamental analysis of specifications, design, and code.
39
The purpose of this test. The main purpose of this test is to make sure
that the resulting software meets the specified requirements.

24
We hope to find all errors and defects with minimal effort

1
and time. This should be based on the needs of different stages of development,
documents or other programs designed to test designs and structures
internally, and uses these samples to run utility programs
identify errors.
2.2.14.1.White Box Testing
3
White box testing or glass box testing is a method of designing cases
test uses a procedural design control structure to capture test cases.
System analysis using the white box method takes test cases [13]:
3
a) Make sure all independent paths in the module are executed at least once.
b) Make all decisions logical
c) Perform all rotations within limits
d) Work with all internal data structures ensuring authenticity
Test Case To carry out the testing process, flowchart first
translated into a flowchart (control flow). Some terms
used when creating a flowchart are:
16
1. node, namely a circle in a flowchart that represents one or more
procedural orders.
2. ChetMeans, the arrow that depicts the control flow of each
node must be the destination node.
3. region, namely the area bounded by nodes and edges and the area outside the graph
flow must also be calculated.
4. predicate node, namely, the state that exists at a node and shares it
properties of two or more other sides.
30
5. Cyclomatic complexity is a software metric that provides
a quantitative measure of a program's logical complexity and usability
to find the number of paths in a flow graph.
6. Independent waythat is, throughout the program, or at least on the way in which
16
there is a new command process or a new situation.
Formula for calculating the number of independent paths in a flow graph:

1. The number of flow regions is related to the cyclomatic complexity (CC).
25
7
2. For flow charts, V(G) can be calculated using the formula
following:
a) V(G) = E – N + 2
Where:
E = number of edges in the flow interval

14
N = Number of nodes in the flow
b) V(G) = P + 1
Where:
P = number of predicate nodes in flowrgaph
The White Box testing technique consists of three steps, namely:
1) Flow graphs transmitted through flow charts
2) Calculation of silomatic complexity for the resulting flow graph
3) Determine flow graph test paths equal in complexity
specified cyclomatic.
4
6
7 8
9
11 10
Figure 2.2. Water table: Roger S. Pressman [13].

26
9
Flowcharts are used to describe program control structures and to
depicting a flowchart, attention should be paid to the design representation
procedural in flowcharts. In the image below, the flow chart calculates
flow diagram to the appropriate schematic (if no complicated situations are included
in decision pronouns in the flow diagram). Each circle, called a node

10
flowchart, representing one or more procedural statements. Sequence of process boxes
and a decision stone can correspond to a single node. These axes,
called edges or links, represent control flow and are similar to axes
10
flowchart. An edge must stop at a node, even if it is a node
These do not represent procedural statements [13].
Chet 1
2.3 predicate node
14
6 4.5
R2
7 R3 8
R1
9
region
10
node R4
11
Figure 2.3. Flow diagram: Roger S. Pressman[13].

From the flowchart above we get:
Row 1 = 1 - 11
Method 2 = 1 – 2 – 3 – 4 – 5 – 10 – 1 – 11
27
3rd way = 1 – 2 – 3 – 6 – 8 – 9 – 10 – 1 – 11
4th way = 1 – 2 – 3 – 6 – 7 – 9 – 10 – 1 – 11
The paths 1,2,3,4 defined above form the basis of the flowchart.
Cyclomatic complexity is used to find the number of inner paths
single flow graph. The following formula can be used:
1. The number of flow graph regions corresponds to the cyclomatic complexity.

13
2. The cyclomatixV(G) complication for the flow diagram is calculated by the formula:
V(G) = E – N + 2 …………. (1)
Where:
E = number of edges in the flow graph
N = number of nodes in the flow graph
3. Cyclomatix complexity V(G) can also be calculated using
following formula:
V(G) = P + 1…… (2)
Where P = number of predicate nodes in the flow graph
From the figure above the cyclomatic complexity can be calculated:

1
1. Flowgraph has 4 areas
2. V(G) = 11 edges - 9 vertices + 2 = 4
3. V(G) = 3 predicate points + 1 = 4
So, the cyclomatic complexity of the flow graph is 4

29
Cyclomatic complexity represents a higher level of procedure
complex that is difficult to understand, test, and maintain. There is a correlation
between cyclomatic complexity and risk in the process.
Table 2.7. Relationship between Cyclomatic Complexity and hazards
CC Process type danger

27
1-4 The procedure is simple currently
5-10 Structured and stable procedures currently
11-20 More complicated procedures Average
21-50 The procedure is complicated, worried on

28
Error-prone procedures,
> 50 very problematic, and can't very high
verified
2.2.14.2.Black Box Testing

17
According to Pressman [14] Black-Box testing focuses on requirements
functional software, which allows engineers to be provided
a set of input conditions that fully implements the requirements
9
functional for applications. Black-Box testing looks for errors in categories
following:
1. Incorrect function or missing function

2. interface error
3. Errors in data structures or external database access
4. Behavioral errors or performance errors

5. Starting and ending errors
This test is designed to answer the following questions:
a. How is functional validity checked?
b. How will system performance and performance be tested?
10
c. Which input classes make good test cases?
d. Is the system sensitive to certain input values?
e. What are the limitations of isolated data classes?
f. What speed and data volume can the system handle?

g. What effect does determining data combinations have on the operating system?
1. Black box test characteristics

a. Black box tests focus on functional requirements for software
12
based on software requirements specifications.
b. Black box testing is not an alternative technique to white box testing.
Additionally, it is a complementary approach to coverage
errors with different classes of white box testing methods.
c. Black box tests perform testing without detailed knowledge about
the internal structure of the system or component being tested. also called testing
29
behavioral, specification-based testing, input/output testing, or
functional testing.
2. The type of test design technique that can be selected is based on the type of test
used.
a. Equality class division
b. Boundary value analysis
c. State passing test
d. Cause and effect graph
3. Fault categories discovered by black box testing
a. Missing or incorrect function

b. Error from interface
c. Errors from data structures or from accessing external databases
d. Misperformance or behavior
Error starting up and shutting down
2.3 Framework for thinking
Problem
1. Can Least Squares be used to predict fertilizer sales at UD? Farmer?
2. How accurate are fertilizer sales predictions using the method

least squares?
Model
Data collection Monitoring and documentation
Data processing Training data and testing data

Modeling
Most square
Evaluation MAP
Objective
1. To find out the results of applying the least squares method in predicting fertilizer sales at
UD. Farmer.
2. Knowing the level of accuracy of fertilizer sales predictions using
least squares method.
30
Figure 2.4 Circle of thought

23
CHAPTER III
RESEARCH METHODS
3.1 Type, method, topic, time and place of research

7
PenThis research uses a case study method, so this research
descriptive.
The object of this research is the prediction of fertilizer objects. This research is located at
UD in August 2022 to December 2022. Farmers.
3.2 Data Collection

38
There are 2 (two) types of data, namely primary data and secondary data used
21
to collect data. Primary data is data obtained from
Field research and secondary data are research data
literature.
1. Primary Data Study (Field)
Obtain primary data, namely data directly from the research object, namely UD.
37
Farmer. So it is done using the technique:
a. Observation, this method allows you to observe or
check system analysis directly. This research was conducted with
Collect fertilizer sales data for 1 year.
3
b. Interview, this method is used by asking several questions
questions to UD participants. Farmers for the fertilizer sales process.
23
Variables/attributes are shown in Table 3.1 below along with their types
the data.
Table 3.1 Data attributes
NO 1 2 Name Type Information

month Varchar Enter
Endure Number Enter
round
3 sold Integers GO OUT
31
32
3
2. Secondary Data Study (Library)
This bibliographic method is needed to obtain useful secondary data
complete primary data. Secondary data was obtained from a literature review
contains a theoretical framework. This library method is used in system analysis
by taking samples of documents related to research material
such as journals and books.
3.3 Modeling
3.3.1 Model development
Procedures or Steps for Implementing the Least Square Program for

Forecasting Fertilizer Sales Using VB Net Tools.
Data collection Data processing
Test data
` Training data
Least squares modeling
Evaluate the model
Figure 3.1 Model Using the least squares method

33
3.4.1. System analysis
System analysis using a systematic procedural approach
described in the following form:
A). Context diagram using the DFD tool
B). Multilevel diagram using the DFD tool
C). Data flow diagram level 0.1 etc. using the DFD tool
D). Data dictionary using Visio tools
3.4.2. System design
a) Design the output using the DFD tool:
- General output design
- Release design details
b) Design the Input using the DFD tool in the following form:
- General input design
- Detailed input design
c) Database design using DFD tools:
- Data structure
- Object connection diagram
d) Design technology, using tools:
- Independent system network model
- Hardware and software specifications
recommended
e) Design the application using the following tools:
- pseudoprogram during the implementation of the MostSquare method
3.4.3. System construction
This stage converts the results of the analysis and design stages into code
computer program and then build the system. Tools used in
this step is the VB Net 2010 programming language and the database tool is
Mysql.
34
3.4.4. Test the system
A). White box test
The software developed is then tested against the application code
for the method/model implementation process using the White Box method
Testing. The program code is arranged into a program block diagram and then mapped
be a flow diagram (part of the control flow) consisting of many nodes and
edges. Based on the flow diagram, the number of regions and areas is determined
cyclomatic complexity (CC). If the free path = V(G) = (CC) = area of the area where
each path is only executed once and is correct, hence with probability
system logic programming is declared effective.
B). Black box test

32
Furthermore, the software is also tested using the Black Box Testing method
which focuses on the functional requirements of the software and tries

18
found several categories of bugs, including: (1) incorrect or missing functions;
(2) interface error; (3) errors in accessing data structures or
external database information; (4) performance errors; (5) startup error and
termination. If there are no such errors, the system is effectively notified
about errors in system components.

35
BIBLIOGRAPHY
[1] Anni Yuniarti, Maya Damayani, Dina Mustika Noor. C-Organic, N-Amount of
FERTILIZER AND ORGANIC
N,P, FERTILIZER,
ABSORPTION OF C/N, N AND BLACK RICE HOST IN INSEPTISOLAS, 2017
[2] Amrin. Data Mining with Apriori Algorithms to Identify Association Rules for Fertilizer
Purchasing Patterns . Paradigma, Vol. XIX, No. March 1, 2017
[3] ASR Badriyah and A. Suharsono, “Forecasting Motorcycle Sales Demand at PT. "A"
(Case Study in Ponorogo Regency) using ARIMAX and VARX,"J. Pomitz Science
and Art, vol. 3, no. 2, p. 128–
133, 2014.
[4] A. Ridwan, A. Faisol, and F. Santi Vahyuni, "Using the Least Square Method to
Predict Internet-Based Sales at Doni Sport Malang", JATI (Mhs. Tech. Inform.
Journal, Vol. 4, no. 1 , pp. 129–136, 2020, doi: 10.36040/jati.v4i1.2745.
[5] ID Jaya, "Use of the Least Square Trend Method for Predicting (Forecasting) Drug
Sales in Pharmacies", J. IntiIT J. Wis. researcher. Computer Science. and
Technology. Inf., Vol. 5, no. 1, p. 1–7, 2019.
[6] Intan Kurnia Permatasari, 2019.Analysis of sales trends using the Least Square
method at Private Pharmacies in Surabaya
[7] R. Maulidya, "SURYONO SURYONO SHOP'S LAST BOX SALES METHOD" vol. 1,
no. 3, p. 213–218, 2021.
[8] RM Fauzi and DI Mulyana, "Implementation of Data Mining Using the Least Square
Method to Predict LED Lamp Sales at PT. Source Dynamics Solusitama” J. Sos.
and Technology. (SOSTECH), vol. 1, no. 8, p. 907–919, 2021.
[9] RA WALANGADI, “Forecasting Motorcycle Sales Using Methods

Least Square”, Vol. 3, no. 2, p. 42–45, 2020.
[10] H. Jogianto, Analysis and Design of Information Systems: A Structural Approach to
the Origins and Practice of Business Applications. Oh Jakarta: Andy Offset, 2005
[11] Kusrini, Concept and Application of Decision Support Systems. Yogyakarta:

Andy, 2007.
[12] Hariyanto, Bambang, 2004. Database Information Systems: Modeling,

Design and Application. Informatics, Bandung.
[13] SR Pressman, Software Engineering: A Practical Approach.
Yogyakarta: Andi, 2002.
36
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Bibliographic material Quoted materials

PREDICTION OF FERTILIZER SALES USING METHOD

(Case Study: UD. Sang Tani, Gorontalo Regency)

in order to improve services in the sale of agricultural fertilizers. There is

trading is uncertain in 2021. Below is sales information

non-subsidized fertilizer at UD. Farmers in 2021:

Table 1.1. Reporting data on fertilizer sales in 2021

Fertilizer sales are due to erratic figures each month

competition with similar businesses in fertilizer sales. Other problems

is the number of sales that shift from distributors directly to retailers

even farmers, resulting in a lot of unsold fertilizer and

pile of fertilizer. To overcome the above problems, a prediction process is needed

not full. Farmer.

This prediction had a big impact on UD's decision. Farmers decide

that more fertilizer should be applied. So when ordering fertilizer

in large quantities it is known that only a small amount of fertilizer is sold, so

Accurate sales can be used as the main reference in planning

You do too much or too little which can cause

the company loses the opportunity to sell goods. to customers or

general public [3].

The method used for predictions in this research is method

requires past sales data to predict future sales

or smallest. The characteristic of this method is determining the parameter X. After

fertilizer sales next month (Y).

previous research by Intan Kurnia Permatasari, 2019. Trend analysis

sales using the Least Square method at Private Pharmacies in

different from the third quarter [6].

Based on this background, the author raises the title "Sales

1.2 Identify the problem

1. Accumulation and shortages often occur in fertilizer storage at UD.Petani.

Based on the problem definition above, the problem can be formulated as

1. Can Least Squares be used to predict sales? Fertilizer in

1. Study the results of using the least squares method to predict

Fertilizer sales at UD.Petani.

1.5 Research benefits

1. Make theoretical contributions to the development of science

upgrading the “Small Box” method of data processing.

produce a quality system.

2.1 Study Overview

Table 2.1 Relevant studies

1 Rizki Quadratic method The result of this research is that

3 Ria Anggraini Forecasting The results of testing the least

amount of data can optimize the

2.2 Literature review

Forecasting/forecasting is determining the number of requests in a month

Data mining stages are:

Shard data sources can be combined. As you can see, data