I. PROBABILITY INTRODUCTION Example: A die is rolled. Event A is rolling an even number.
STATISTICS - the branch of mathematics that deals with the collection, presentation,
analysis, and use of data.
 Descriptive Statistics - collecting summarizing and describing data.
 Inferential Statistics - drawing conclusions and/or making decisions concerning a
population based on sample data.
PROBABILITY – a numerical measure of the chance of an event happening.
 A probability of 0 means it is impossible for the event to happen
 A probability of 1means the event is certain to happen
RANDOM EXPERIMENT - an experiment that can result in different outcomes, even
though it is repeated in the same manner every time.
SAMPLE SPACE - the set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment is called the
sample space of the experiment. The sample space is denoted as S.
ELEMENT (or a member) – each outcome in a sample space
Note: If the sample space has a finite number of elements, list the members separated by
commas and enclosed in braces, thus the sample space is discrete
 The sample space S, of possible outcomes when a coin is flipped
S = {H, T}
Discrete Sample Space - a sample space is discrete if it consists of a finite or countable
infinite set of outcomes.
Continuous Sample Space - a sample space is continuous if it contains an interval (either
finite or infinite) of real numbers. A sample space is continuous if it contains an interval
(either finite or infinite) of real numbers.
- Sample space with large or infinite number of sample space are best describe by a
statement or rule method
 If the possible outcomes of an experiment are the set of cities in the world with a
population over 1 million, our sample space is written
S = {(x)| x is a city with a population over 1 million)
read as “S is the set of all x such that x is a city with a population over 1 million”.
II. PROBABILITY THEORY
Probability Experiment - an action through which specific results (counts, measurements
or responses) are obtained.
Example: Rolling a die and observing the number that is rolled is a probability experiment.
 The result of a single trial in a probability experiment is the outcome.
 The set of all possible outcomes for an experiment is the sample space.
Example: The sample space when rolling a die has six outcomes.
{1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}
EVENTS
An event consists of one or more outcomes and is a subset of the sample space.
Example: A die is rolled. Event A is rolling an even number.
A simple event is an event that consists of a single outcome.
This is not a simple event because the outcomes of event A are {2, 4, 6}.
Note: Since events are subsets, we can use the set theory hence, basic set operations.
SET OPERATIONS
1. The UNION of two events is the event that consists of all outcomes that are contained
in either of the two events. We denote the union as A ∪ B.
- the event “either A or B.”
2. The INTERSECTION of two events is the event that consists of all outcomes that are
contained in both of the two events. We denote the intersection as A ∩ B.
- the event “both A and B”
3. The COMPLEMENT of an event in a sample space is the set of outcomes in the sample
space that are not in the event. We denote the complement of the event E as E′. The
notation 𝐸^𝐶 is also used in other literature to denote the complement.
- the event “not A.”
4. DISJOINT OR MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE - two events, A and B, such that A ∩ B = ø
5. NULL SET – contains no elements at all & denoted as ø
Measuring Probability - Classical Probability
Classical (or theoretical) probability is used when each outcome in a sample space is
equally likely to occur. The classical probability for event E is given by
Example: A die is rolled.
Find the probability of Event A: rolling a 5.
There is one outcome in Event A: {5}
P(A) = 1/6 or 0.617
Measuring Probability - Empirical Probability
Empirical (or statistical) probability is based on observations obtained from probability
experiments. The empirical frequency of an event E is the relative frequency of event E.
Example:
A travel agent determines that in every 50 reservations she makes, 12 will be for a cruise.
What is the probability that the next reservation she makes will be for a cruise?
P(cruise) = 12/50 or 0.24
Law of Large Numbers
As an experiment is repeated over and over, the empirical probability of an event
approaches the theoretical (actual) probability of the event.
Example: Sally flips a coin 20 times and gets 3 heads. The empirical probability is 3/20.
This is not representative of the theoretical probability which is ½. As the number of times
Sally tosses the coin increases, the law of large numbers indicates that the empirical
probability will get closer and closer to the theoretical probability.
Measuring Probability - Subjective Probability Solution: There are six different permutations:
Subjective probability results from intuition, educated guesses, and estimates. abc, acb, bac, bca, cab, cba
Example: Listing Permutation (𝑛-Permutation)
A business analyst predicts that the probability of a certain union going on strike is 0.15. The number of permutations of n objects is n!
Range of Probabilities Rule In how many different ways could four items be arranged in order from first to last?
The probability of an event E is between 0 and 1, inclusive. That is 4! = 4 • 3 • 2 • 1 = 24
0 <= P(E) <= 1 Permutation General Formula (𝑟-Permutation)
0-impossible to occur We call nPr the number of permutations of n objects taking them r at a time, is:
0.5-even chance
1-certain to occur
Tree Diagram
Sample spaces can also be described graphically with tree diagrams. Permutations
If one thing can be accomplished in 𝑛_"1 " different ways and after a second thin can be Example: How many different two-letter permutations of the letters a, b, c, d are possible?
accomplished in 𝑛_"2" different ways, . . ., and finally kth thing can be accomplished in Solution: There are twelve different permutations:
𝑛_"k" different ways, then all k things can be accomplished in the specified order in 𝑛_"1 " ab, ac, ad, ba, ca, da, bc, bd, cb, db, cd, dc
,𝑛_"2" ,…, 𝑛_"k" different ways. Example: A teacher has chosen eight possible questions for an upcoming quiz. In how
Multiplication Rule many different ways can five of these questions be chosen and arranged in order from #1
If there are n possible outcomes for event E1 and m possible outcomes for event E2, then to #5?
there are n x m or nm possible outcomes for the series of events E1 followed by E2. Solution: 8P5 = 8!/3! = 8 • 7 • 6 • 5•4 = 6720
Area Code Example Distinguishable Permutations
Until a few years ago a three-digit area code was designed as follows. The first could be The number of distinct permutations of n things of which n1 are of one kind , n2 of a
any digit from 2 through 9. The second digit could be only a 0 or 1. The last could be any second kind, . . . nk of a kth kind is
digit. How many different such area codes were possible?
8 • 2 • 10 = 160 codes
Factorial Example:
In how many different ways could four items be arranged in order from first to last? How many different letter arrangements can be made from the letters in the word
4 • 3 • 2 • 1 = 24 STATISTICS?
Factorial Notation
n! is read "n factorial"
n! is applied only when n is a whole number. There are 3 copies of Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone, 4 copies of The Lost
The factorial of any non-negative integer n, denoted n! is defined as Symbol, 5 copies of The Secret of the Unicorn. In how many ways can you arrange these
𝑛! = 𝑛(𝑛−1)(𝑛−2)…(3)(2)(1) books on a shelf?
n! is a product of n with each positive counting number less than n
Calculating factorials:
5! = 5 • 4 • 3 • 2 • 1 = 120 Permutation when repetition is allowed
3! = 3 • 2 • 1 = 6 Say for instance, you have the digits 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 and you are asked to find
PERMUTATIONS the total numbers of 6 digits passwords that can be formed using those 10 digits and
A permutation is an arrangement of all or part of a set of objects. repetition is allowed.
Generally, there are to be no repetitions of items within a permutation. The number of permutations in this case = 10x10x10x10x10x10 = 1,000,000ways
Example: Circular Permutation
Consider the three letters a, b, and c. How many different permutations of the letters a, b, The number of permutations of n objects arranged in a circle is (n-1)!
c are possible?
Example: If we consider a round table and 3 persons then the number of different sitting Probability is a set function, P(E) that assigns to every event E a number called the
arrangement that we can have around the round table is an example of circular probability of E such that:
permutation. Axiom 1: The probability of event is greater than or equal to zero.
Solution: (n-1)! = 2! = 2
Example: In how many ways can 5 different trees be planted in circle?
Axiom 2: The probability of sample space is equal to 1
Solution: (5-1)! = 4! = 24 ways
Permutations arranged in a circle
How many ways can 5 boys and 5 girls be arranged in a circular table if: Axiom 3: For any number of mutually exclusive events, the following equations are
A. no restrictions valid:

B. Boys and Girls are alternate Mutually Exclusive Events

(1!x4!x5!) = 1x5x4x4x3x3x2x2x1= 2,880 ways Two events, A and B, are mutually exclusive if they cannot occur at the same time.
C. Couples sit together
= 768ways A and
D. Boys and Girls seat separately (meaning boys are together and girls are together)
1x1x5!x5! = 14,400ways AA B
A
E. One pair should not sit together while the rest of the couples sit together B
• 1 – the boy or girl that should not be together will sit first
• 3 – when the boy or girl was seated there are only 3 position the girl or boy must
sit A and B are mutually exclusive.
B A and B are not mutually exclusive.
• 4! – the remaining couples that will seat
AXIOMS OF PROBABILITY
• 2!2!2!2! – the couples can alternate These axioms imply the following results and for any event
Combinations
A combination is a grouping in no particular order of items. Furthermore, if the event E1 is contained in the event E2,
• The number of subsets of r elements taken from a set of n elements at a time is:
n!
Cn , r  Example:
(n  r ) ! r !
1. Each of the possible five outcomes of a random experiment is equally likely. The sample space is { a,b,c,d,e}. Let A
• Example: 9C3 denote the event { a, b}, and let B denote the event { c, d, e}. Determine the following:
9! 9! 362880
C9, 3     84 a. P(A) c. P(B) e. P(A’)
C
9 3
3!(9  3)! 3!6! 6(720)
b. P(A⋃B) d. P(A⋂B)
Solution: All outcomes are equally likely
Counting Rule When to use (a) P(A) = 2/5
Multiplication rule Almost all the time, multi-step event, or if (b) P(A ⋃ B) = 1
the tree diagram applies (c) P(B) = 3/5
(d) P(A ⋂ B) = P(Æ)= 0
n-Permutation (Factorial) Ranking/ordering all the elements (e) P(A') = 3/5
r-Permutation (Permutation) Some objects are assigned ranks, the rest 2. The sample space of a random experiment is { a, b, c, d, e } with probabilities 0.1, 0.1, 0.2, 0.4, and 0.2, respectively. Let A
denote the event { a, b, c} and let B denote the event { c, d, e}. Determine the following:
is ignored, order of objects matter a. P(A) c. P(B) e. P(A’)
Circular Permutation Objects are arranged in a simple loop b. P(A⋃B) d. P(A⋂B)
Solution: All outcomes are equally likely
Permutation with Similar Objects, Presence of identical objects; (a) P(A) = 0.4
Partition Assigning objects to groups (b) P(A ⋃ B) = 1
(c) P(B) = 0.8
Combination Objects are divided into two groups; (d) P(A ⋂ B) = 0.2
sampling without order (c) P(A') = 0.6
AXIOMS OF PROBABILITY 2. Orders for a computer are summarized by the optional features that are requested as follows:
 P (B |A) = P (B) or if P (A |B) = P (A).
P(A ∩ B) = P(A)∙P(B)
Events that are not independent are dependent.
Determine the following: Independent Events
a. What is the probability that an order requests at least one optional feature? Two events A and B are independent if
b. What is the probability that an order does not request more than one optional feature? P(A ∩ B) = P(A)∙P(B)
Solution: Therefore, to obtain the probability that two independent events will both occur,
All outcomes are equally likely we simply find the product of their individual probabilities.
(a) 0.5 + 0.2 = 0.7 Example.
(b) 0.3 + 0.5 = 0.8 A small town has one fire engine and one ambulance available for emergencies. The probability that the fire engine is available
when needed is 0.98, and the probability that the ambulance is available when called is 0.92. In the event of an injury resulting
The Addition Rules from a burning building, find the probability that both the ambulance and the fire engine will be available, assuming they operate
The probability that event A or B will occur is given by independently.
P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) – P (A and B ).not mutually exclusive events Solution. Let A and B represent the respective events that the fire engine and the ambulance are available.
If events A and B are mutually exclusive, then the rule can be simplified to P(A ∩ B) = P(A)P(B) = (0.98)(0.92) = 0.9016
P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B).
Example: You roll a die. Find the probability that you roll a number less than 3 or a 4. The multiplicative rule can be extended to more than two-event situations.
The events are mutually exclusive. Theorem 1: For any three events A1, A2, A3, we have
P (roll a number less than 3 or roll a 4)
= P (number is less than 3) + P (4)
• In words, the probability that A1 and A2 and A3 all occur is equal to the probability that A1 occurs times the
probability that A2 occurs given that A1 has occurred times the probability that A3 occurs given that both A1 and A2
Joint events are generated by applying basic set operations to individual events. have occurred. The result is easily generalized to n events.
- Unions of events, such as A ∪ B ; • Theorem 2: If an event A must result in one of the mutually exclusive events A1, A2, ,An, then
- Intersections of events, such as A∩B; and
- Complements of events, such as A′—are commonly of interest.
MULTIPLICATION RULE
Mutually Exclusive Events
Example: Decide if the two events happening at the same time are mutually exclusive.
Multiplying the formula of conditional probability, we obtain the following important multiplicative rule (or
Event A: Roll a number less than 3 on a die. Event B: Roll a 4 on a die.
B product rule), which enables us to calculate the probability that two events will both occur
A The probability that two events, A and B will occur in sequence is
P (A and B) = P (A) · P (B |A).
1 4 If event A and B are independent, then the rule can be simplified to
2 P (A and B) = P (A) · P (B).

Baye’s Rule
Bayes’ Rule is a simple formula relating the values of P(A|B) and P(B|A).
These events cannot happen at the same time, so the events are mutually exclusive.
It has several forms and interesting consequences.
The Addition Rule – 3 events
By the definition of conditional probability
More complicated probabilities, such as P (A ∪ B ∪ C), which was derived to:

Thus,
Complementary Events
The complement of Event E is the set of all outcomes in the sample space that are not included in event E. (Denoted E′ and read
“E prime.”)
P(E) + P (E′ ) = 1
P(E) = 1 – P (E′ )
P (E′ ) = 1 – P(E)
Conditional Probability
A conditional probability is the probability of an event occurring, given that another event has already occurred.
Let A and B be two events such that P(A) > 0. Denote by P(B|A) the probability of B given that A has occurred. Since A is known
to have occurred, it becomes the new sample space replacing the original S.
From this we are led to the definition

Independent Events
Two events are independent if the occurrence of one of the events does not affect the probability of the other event. Two
events A and B are independent if any if any one of the following equivalent statements is true