IKEA

in 2030

Cole Miller, Sean Final Project

McElveen, Marissa Gibb, DAAP3000 - Applied
Savannah Riegert Trend Forecasting, Fall
2023
 CONTENTS
⑁ Group Roles
⑁ Approach
⑁ Trend Summary
⑁ Foresight Summary
⑁ Foresight Manifestations
⑁ What’s Next - Year 2030
⑁ Why IKEA?
⑁ Company Innovation Backcast
⑁ Innovation Objectives
⑁ Innovation Target
⑁ Innovation Recommendations
⑁ Conclusion
GROUP ROLES
Researchers:
⑁ Cole Miller, Sean McElveen,
Marissa Gibb, Savannah
Riegert
Copy Editor:
⑁ Marissa Gibb, Cole Miller,
Sean McElveen, Savannah
Riegert
Art Director:
⑁ Savannah Riegert
QC/Proofreading:
⑁ Cole Miller, Sean McElveen,
Marissa Gibb
 APPROACH
Through understanding the
potential for a mutually
beneficial relationship
between humans and Earth,
we sought to incorporate
biomimicry and biophilia into
an existing global brand to
cater towards the changing
ideologies and sustainability
focused practices of the
modern consumer.
Through our research we
found that IKEA could
support innovative efforts to
incorporate nature into the
home and thus lifestyle. As an
industry leader, IKEA’s global
presence makes green
innovation feasible.
 TREND SUMMARY
Sustainability has been at the forefront of global concerns for decades,
yet minimal progress towards impactful improvement has been made.
As conditions worsen and people fathom the destructive forces of
nature, it is crucial to develop new technology and societal systems
inspired by and for the betterment of the Earth. The application of
biomimicry and biophilia in furniture and home lifestyles will create a
positive and feasible influence on the world. IKEA supporting and
practicing sustainability on all levels would get everyone involved.

Key drivers:
⑁ Biophilia
⑁ Biomimicry
FORECAST SUMMARY
What are key changes of today’s world that point to an alternate future in
2030?
⑁ Increase in the switch to veganism due to the increased desire to “eat green” and be healthy.
⑁ Increase in the fostering of biophilia due to mental health impacts from finding serenity in tame
nature and hopelessness when exposed to natural disasters.
⑁ Decrease in household emissions due to the biophilic nature of newly adopted living standards
originating from education of sustainable/green practices.
⑁ Increase in green building regulations that promotes sustainability and biomimicry.
⑁ Increase of greener business regulations due to new generation of political office holders.
⑁ Increase in earthships as a housing crisis develops due to poor economic conditions and
generations entering the workforce struggling to with wages not matching the increase in cost
of living
FORESIGHT MANIFESTATIONS:
CONTEXT FOR THE FUTURE
Mental Health Impacts
As the severity of natural disasters
increases, largely due to decades of
human offenses against the
environment, Biophilic tendencies
will fortify in society. According to a
study conducted by the National
Library of Medicine the findings
concluded “Globally, the prevalence
of mental illness has increased by
roughly 17%. In the first year
following a disaster, psychological
morbidity frequently affects
30%-40% of the population.” People
are blindsided by the destructive
forces of nature, but aware of the
healing capabilities which suggests a
societal shift towards an integration
of natural elements into modern
lifestyle.
 FORESIGHT MANIFESTATIONS:
CONTEXT FOR THE FUTURE
Furniture with Purpose
Biomimicry becomes a feasible
sustainability option when
applied to furniture. Biomimicry
focused on furniture is more
accessible to everyone and
beneficial to companies and the
environment. Furniture News
described biomimicry in furniture
as “worth [our] industry
exploring. The outputs should be
ecologically responsible, but
equally, they should be good
profit drivers delivering
sustainable products that
provide brands with credibility
and uniqueness.” People want to
be more sustainable but don’t
know where that fits in with their
personal goals of also having a
unique house filled with pieces of
furniture they love and can use.
 WHAT’S NEXT - YEAR 2030
Based on our research, we see a chance for the best case scenario. Our best case would
be where sustainability is at the forefront of everyone's minds and there is proactive
change in what the new norm would be.

In a world where negative environmental consequences are commonplace, people will

thrive through connecting with Earth and learning to coevolve with nature. Due to the
development of environmental consciousness over the past 10 years, individuals should
take accountability and proactively nurture a mutually beneficial relationship with
Earth every day.
Until political intervention happens, they will finally be able to create regulations and
laws that protect people and the planet for the longevity of both. Because of the shift
from a negligent society to a newfound appreciation of Earth and the validation of
alternate green solutions, the course of history will be altered forever.
 WHY IKEA?
IKEA is a renowned global furniture brand with stores in 59 countries and
3 territories. IKEA already promotes sustainability but we would like to
take it a step further. If IKEA promoted sustainability then the world view
would quickly change with more and more people being exposed every
day. Their mission is “to offer a wide range of well-designed, functional
home furnishing products at prices so that as many people as possible
will be able to afford them.” The IKEA vision goes hand in hand with what
we believe; “to create a better everyday life for many people.” The reach
of our mission of a new Earth centered mindset would be unprecedented.
 HISTORY OF IKEA

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

⑁ First ⑁ IKEA ⑁ The Great ⑁ Use of ⑁ IKEA.com ⑁ IKEA Social

showroom Baren Expansion steel mesh Initiative
opened ⑁ Golden in (2005)
⑁ Where Age for furniture ⑁ Soft Toy
should the Textiles Campaign
sofa go? (2003)
⑁ Home
visits
⑁ “People &
Planet
Positive”
 INNOVATION & HISTORY
1950s - 1970s
1950s:
⑁ First home furnishing showroom
⑁ Personalized hand-painted watercolor catalog delivered to house of
shoppers showing what would look best in the room they were
shopping for (1,100 EUR, ~6,361 EUR current)

1960s:
⑁ IKEA Baren (The IKEA Bar) - “You can sell more sofa beds to relaxed
customers with full stomachs”
⑁ A textile department was created introducing more cotton and bright
colors - a stark contrast to the grey that was being used before

1970s:
⑁ IKEA was established in: Australia, Austria, Canada, Germany, Hong
Kong, Japan, Kuwait, Netherlands, Singapore, and Switzerland
 INNOVATION & HISTORY
1980s - early 2000s
1980s:
⑁ Steel mesh was cheaper and lighter making it easier to get and use.
The steel mesh (also used for shopping carts) was transformed into
new age furniture

1990s:
⑁ The internet was becoming more accessible and IKEA.com was
launched in 1997

2000s:
⑁ Amid scandal and child labor rumors, IKEA starts working with UNICEF
and Save The Children. Contributing to better health, clean water, and
sanitary facilities
⑁ Soft toy campaign launched - the drawing competition where a
handful of drawings are picked to be made into toys - earnings from
sales go to child education through Save the Children and UNICEF
 INNOVATION & HISTORY
2010s -
2010s:
⑁ Launched Sektion kitchen cabinet system
⑁ Used home visits to get a better idea what people want and dream of
in their space
⑁ Started the “People & Planet Positive” sustainability plan

2015 - Present:
⑁ Started utilizing the wedge dowel
⑁ Released “IKEA Place” an augmented reality app - allows customers to
visualize true to size products in real life environment
⑁ Initiated a Buy Back and Resell service - IKEA buys back a piece of
assembled furniture you are ready to retire, the seller gets store credit
and the item is placed in As-Is department
⑁ Began the “As-Is” online program - able to buy gently used items at a
discounted price
INNOVATION OBJECTIVES
As emerging Brand
Futurists we aim to
help our company grow
their annual revenue
by 10% with NEW
consumers, NEW
products, NEW
services, and NEW
experiences in our
scenario from 2030.
IKEA is already widely
successful but opening
the door into biophilia
and broadcasting
biomimicry would give
increased potential in a
new territory.
INNOVATION OBJECTIVES
Revenue Goals
⑁ Revenue from 2022:
$57.9 billion
⑁ Revenue goals for
2030: $63.8 billion
⑁ 10% incremental
growth: $5.8 billion
Innovation Target
Consumer
⑁ Who are they: Gen Z
⑁ What is their size:
Broadly 2.56 billion
people
⑁ Their age in 2030:
18-33
⑁ Projected purchasing
power in 2030: $720
billion
INNOVATION TARGET
Who are they?
⑁ This generation has been shaped
by the digital age and social
media where now, mental health
and well-being is of great
concern. Their prioritization of
inclusion, well-being, and
diversity has led the generation
to more successful in hybrid or
home environments.
How does IKEA fit into their world in
the year 2030?
⑁ Since Gen Z likes to travel and
would rather rent than buy
homes, IKEA’s mission to supply
affordable, replaceable furniture
aligns with their buying habits.
Then, transitioning into a
sustainable mode of operation
would align with Gen Z’s outlook
on the Earth.
In order to meet our goals for the year 2030
and beyond, we need BIG ideas with IMPACT…
INNOVATION RECOMMENDATIONS
⑁ New Business
Communal gardens through IKEA Family - people pay access to produce
⑁ New Service
At-home composting services that are used in communal gardens
⑁ New Product
Indoor personal vertical farming
⑁ New Product/Business
Tiny homes that you can buy and rent out similar to AirBnb in favorable
places
⑁ New Product
Sustainable product line for furniture
⑁ New Experience
VR experience to show new rooms and different designs
NEW BUSINESS
communal gardens through IKEA family
Vertical indoor farms that would
allow users to use their use their
own plot of land however they’d like.
IKEA would provide a selection of
seeds for different fruits, herbs, etc.

Guests would be charged for seeds,

labor, and occupying a plot.
200 multinational indoor farms
could generate upwards of $1.5
billion.
NEW SERVICE
at-home composting services
This subscription would include
composting bins, pickup and drop-off
services, and educational resources.
Guests would be able to enroll in the
program as a subscription-based
service.

The subscription would cost $20 a

month. 200,000 people using the
service every year could make up to
$1 billion.
NEW PRODUCT
indoor personal vertical farming
These farming systems would be
equipped with a modular design,
smart sensors for nutrients, and
machine learning.

Systems would vary in size and cost

but ultimately would average to
about $750 a system. 250,000 people
buying the system could generate
upwards of $1 billion.
NEW PRODUCT/BUSINESS
tiny homes that you can buy and rent out
Prebuilt homes with all the latest
IKEA products that could be moved
almost anywhere. Homes could be
littered around urban areas and
guests could use an app similar to
AirBnB to book certain days and
places.

2000 tiny homes worldwide could

generate up to $1 billion.
NEW PRODUCT
sustainable product line of furniture
Furniture line made with
low-emitting or repurposed
materials and fabrics.

Prices would be about 20% more

than standard furniture pieces sold.
This product could make up to $750
million.
NEW EXPERIENCE
VR experience to show rooms/designs
Scattered around IKEA stores, these
would allow guests to view rooms
and customize furniture pieces that
match their style.

Guests could use the VR for free but

would be charged a fee if they
purchased something using the VR
(5% fee).
 CONCLUSION
While IKEA is already making green initiatives,
there is still room for improving their approach in
order to satisfy the changing customer
preferences towards favoring sustainability, and
thus maximizing profits. As an industry leader,
applying a strict sustainability code and
specifically biomimicry, targets will fast track
future innovations within the brand which in turn
will modernize the home goods industry as a
whole.
 SOURCES
⑁ Keya, T. A., Leela, A., Habib, N., Rashid, M., & Bakthavatchalam, P. (2023, April 2). Mental health
disorders due to disaster exposure: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Cureus.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10153020/
⑁ Published by Statista Research Department, & 29, S. (2023, September 29). Gross profit of IKEA
globally 2022. Statista.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/241801/gross-profit-of-ikea-worldwide/#:~:text=In%20the
%20financial%20year%202022,billion%20recorded%20a%20year%20earlier.
⑁ Financial year 2023 retail sales - ikea global. IKEA. (n.d.).
https://www.ikea.com/global/en/newsroom/corporate/improving-affordability-for-ikea-custo
mers-231011/
⑁ https://ikeamuseum.com/en/
⑁ Naylor, R. (2023, October 27). The role of Biomimicry in furniture design. Furniture News
Magazine.https://www.furniturenews.net/resources/articles/2023/10/2025005662-role-biomi
micry-furniture-design