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Food 20 Security
Food 20 Security
Food 20 Security
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during the 18th- and 19th-century Industrial and
REVIEW Agricultural Revolutions and the 20th-century
Green Revolution. Increases in production will
Food Security: The Challenge of have an important part to play, but they will be
constrained as never before by the finite resources
provided by Earth’s lands, oceans, and atmo-
Feeding 9 Billion People sphere (10).
Patterns in global food prices are indicators of
H. Charles J. Godfray,1* John R. Beddington,2 Ian R. Crute,3 Lawrence Haddad,4 David Lawrence,5 trends in the availability of food, at least for those
James F. Muir,6 Jules Pretty,7 Sherman Robinson,8 Sandy M. Thomas,9 Camilla Toulmin10 who can afford it and have access to world mar-
kets. Over the past century, gross food prices have
Continuing population and consumption growth will mean that the global demand for food will generally fallen, leveling off in the past three dec-
increase for at least another 40 years. Growing competition for land, water, and energy, in addition to ades but punctuated by price spikes such as that
the overexploitation of fisheries, will affect our ability to produce food, as will the urgent requirement caused by the 1970s oil crisis. In mid-2008, there
to reduce the impact of the food system on the environment. The effects of climate change are a was an unexpected rapid rise in food prices, the
further threat. But the world can produce more food and can ensure that it is used more efficiently and cause of which is still being debated, that subsided
T growth in food production, allowing for a supply; do so in ways that are environmentally increased demand from rapidly developing coun-
dramatic decrease in the proportion of the and socially sustainable; and ensure that the tries, as well as by competition for resources from
world’s people that are hungry, despite a doubling world’s poorest people are no longer hungry. first-generation biofuels production (12). Increased
of the total population (Fig. 1) (1, 2). Neverthe- This challenge requires changes in the way food food prices will stimulate greater investment in
less, more than one in seven people today still do is produced, stored, processed, distributed, and food production, but the critical importance of food
not have access to sufficient protein and energy accessed that are as radical as those that occurred to human well-being and also to social and po-
from their diet, and even more suffer from some litical stability makes it likely that
form of micronutrient malnourishment (3). The A governments and other organizations
world is now facing a new set of intersecting chal- 3.5 Main grains (wheat, barley, will want to encourage food pro-
maize, rice, oats)
lenges (4). The global population will continue to duction beyond that driven by sim-
Coarse grains
grow, yet it is likely to plateau at some 9 billion 3.0 (millet, sorghum) ple market mechanisms (13). The
people by roughly the middle of this century. A Root crops long-term nature of returns on in-
major correlate of this deceleration in population (cassava, potato) vestment for many aspects of food
Relative production
2.5
growth is increased wealth, and with higher pur- production and the importance of
chasing power comes higher consumption and a 2.0 policies that promote sustainability
greater demand for processed food, meat, dairy, and equity also argue against purely
and fish, all of which add pressure to the food 1.5 relying on market solutions.
supply system. At the same time, food producers So how can more food be pro-
are experiencing greater competition for land, 1.0
duced sustainably? In the past, the
water, and energy, and the need to curb the many primary solution to food shortages
negative effects of food production on the envi- 0.5
has been to bring more land into
ronment is becoming increasingly clear (5, 6). 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 agriculture and to exploit new fish
Overarching all of these issues is the threat of the stocks. Yet over the past 5 decades,
effects of substantial climate change and concerns B while grain production has more
about how mitigation and adaptation measures 5.0 than doubled, the amount of land
Chickens
may affect the food system (7, 8). 4.5 Pigs devoted to arable agriculture global-
A threefold challenge now faces the world (9): 4.0
Cattle and buffalo ly has increased by only ~9% (14).
Match the rapidly changing demand for food Sheep and goats Some new land could be brought
3.5
Relative numbers