Maintainability Predictions: The Importance of Early Downtime Predictions in

Availability Assessments

The use of reliability prediction for early assessment of system reliability metrics in the
design stage is well established and widely used in many industries. The advantages of
using reliability prediction methodologies account for the acceptance of these
techniques. Some of the key advantages of this process include:

 Areas in need of redesign for improved reliability can be identified

before reaching production.
 Changes to a design for improved reliability are much less costly in early
design stages than if they are made to address corrective action issues
following product deployment.
 High customer satisfaction is a direct result of building reliability into the
product from the very start.

These same advantages can be extended to the use of maintainability prediction

techniques for assessing system repair metrics in the design stage.

Maintainability Prediction Advantages

The amount of time a system is down for repair is a key element in assessing how
available the system is. System downtime is also a critical component to system
success. In many ways, a system down for maintenance is much like a system that has
failed. At the point in time when the maintenance is taking place, the system is in an
inoperable state. Ultimately, any type of downtime contributes to overall system
unavailability. For a repairable system in a down state, the knowledge on how the
system can be repaired and become operable again is a key factor. Additionally,
minimizing the length and associated cost of that downtime is critical.

Just as reliability predictions are used to pinpoint areas that require redesign work in
order to improve reliability, maintainability predictions can be used to pinpoint areas
that are a concern for repair and maintenance. By assessing repair metrics, possible
improvements to the system design can be made to ensure that system downtime due to
repair and maintenance activities is minimized. The advantages of performing
maintainability predictions in early design stages are similar to the advantages outlined
for usage of reliability prediction techniques:

 Areas in need of redesign for improved uptime can be identified before

reaching production.
 Changes to a design for improved uptime are much less costly in early
design stages than they are if made to address lengthy and complex
repairs in the field.
 High customer satisfaction is a direct result of building availability and
maintainability into the product from the very start.

Maintainability Prediction Metrics and Definitions

There are several common metrics employed when performing maintainability

predictions. Most commonly known is MTTR or Mean Time to Repair. This metric and
others are described below.

Metric Description
MTTR (Mean Time The average time required to bring a failed system back to an
to Repair) operational state. MTTR assumes that repair personnel are on
hand; it does not include logistics delay times.
MMMH (Mean The total manhours per some stated timeframe, such as per year,
Maintenance to keep a system operational. MMMH also does not include
Manhours) logistics delay times.
MMH/Repair (Mean The average number of manhours required per repair action.
Maintenance
Manhours per
Repair)
MCT (Mean Used interchangeably with MTTR. The average time to repair
Corrective Time) (correct) a system.
MTTRS (Mean The average time required to bring a failed system back to an
Time to Restore operational state, including logistics delay times. Logistics delay
System) times include times such as the amount of time it takes to obtain
a spare (if needed) and the time it takes for a repair technican to
get to the site.
MPMT (Mean The average time to perform preventive maintenance on the
Preventive system. Preventive maintenance differs from corrective
Maintenance Time) maintenance in that the system did not experience a failure.
Preventive maintenance is typically a scheduled activity
designed to keep the system up and operational by keeping the
system maintained so that failures do not occur. Maintainability
metrics may include preventive maintenance times because
during these intervals the system is down. Preventive
Maintenance is often referred to as PM.
Availability The probability that a system is operating at a given point in
time. Availability is expressed as a probability value from 0 to 1.
Availability, unlike reliability, takes into account repair times.
Many systems have high availability goals, such as “five 9’s,”
which means that the system availability is 0.99999, or the
likelihood that the system is operational is 99.999% .

In addition to the metrics, there are some commonly used terms in maintainability
predictions.

Term Description
Repair Level The repair level designates the type of repairs that can be
performed. Typical repair levels are defined as:
Organizational: Repairs are done at a high system
 level. Usually these repairs are performed by removing entire
units and replacing them.

Intermediate: Repairs are done at a repair shop which

can analyze the failure more extensively and repair at a lower
assembly level.

Depot: Repairs are done at a very specialized repair

facility which can isolate the needed repair at the lowest level.
Sometimes depot-level repairs indicate that repairs are done at the
OEM level.
MTTR Element The actual repair task may be broken down into specific MTTR
elements for a more detailed analysis of total MTTR. For
example, a repair may involve several aspects, such as fault
isolation (locating the failed item), disassembly (taking the unit
apart for repair), interchange (replacing the failed unit with a new
one), and checkout (making sure the repair is successful). Other
defined MTTR elements include preparation, realignment,
alignment, and startup. Depending upon the desired level of
analysis, all of this data may be collected.
Tasks The breakdown of a repair into specific procedural steps, such as
removal and replacement. Times to perform certain tasks are
usually established so that the total repair time can be estimated
from these known averages.
Replaceable Item Used to indicate the lowest level at which a repair or replacement
(RI) will take place. The RI designation indicates that the item is
replaceable.
Fault Isolation to a When a failure occurs, the first thing the repair technician needs
Single RI or Fault to do is to isolate the fault or locate the item which has failed. In
Isolation to a some cases, fault isolation may be possible down to a specific
Group of RIs item; at other times, it may be possible only to locate a group of
items, any one of which could have caused the failure.

Maintainability using MIL-HDBK-472

One of the most widely accepted standards for maintainability predictions is MIL-
HDBK-472. This handbook outlines in detail equations and data required for
performing maintainability prediction analysis. This handbook encompasses several
different procedures for this process, all suitable for varying purposes and applications.
Brief overviews of the procedures presented in this handbook are outlined below.

Procedure 1
Procedure 1 is used to predict maintenance of electronic and electromechanical systems
in airborne systems. Procedure 1 metrics include the downtime distribution of repair
activities, repair times, and system downtime.

Procedure 2
Procedure 2 is used to predict maintenance of electronic and electromechanical systems
in naval environments. Metrics analyzed include corrective and active maintenance
times.

Procedure 3
Procedure 3 is adapted for analyzing ground-based electronic systems. Measurements
include mean and maximum corrective time, mean and maximum preventive time, and
mean system downtime.

Procedure 4
Procedure 4 is used to analyze mean or total corrective and preventive maintenance of
systems. Metrics include mean maintenance time, mean corrective maintenance time,
mean preventive maintenance time.

Procedure 5
Procedure 5 is a comprehensive procedure for predicting the maintainability of various
types of electronic and electromechanical systems in a variety of environments across
all repair levels. Metrics include MTTR (Mean Time to Repair), MCMT (Mean
Corrective Maintenance Time), MMH/Repair (Mean Maintenance Manhours per
Repair), MMH/OH (Mean Maintenance Manhours per Operating Hour), MMH/FH
(Mean Maintenance Manhours per Flight Hour), and others.

Conclusion

In today’s complex systems, consideration of downtime is critical in meeting customer

requirements. Not only is minimizing the occurrences of failures important, but
minimizing the time a system is down for repair when a failure does occur is crucial. By
employing predictive methods, you can determine early on if design changes are needed
in order to keep your system downtime to a minimum. Maintainability prediction
techniques allow you to analyze all the factors that contribute to downtime, including all
types of repair times and maintenance activities. By adding maintainability prediction
capabilities to your arsenal of reliability analysis tools, you can be sure your system
availability goals are achieved.

Relex Maintainability Prediction

Relex Maintainability Prediction offers all the capabilities needed to perform

maintainability prediction analyses. Based on MIL-HDBK-472 Procedures 2, 5A, and
5B, Relex Maintainability Prediction organizes your analysis process by incorporating
these methodologies in an easy-to-use, functional framework. Relex Maintainability
Prediction includes a task library of repair times for common maintenance tasks. You
can add to this supplied task library or create any number of your own task libraries.
 Sample Relex Maintainability Prediction Task Library

You can also create and define custom repair levels if required. In compliance with
MIL-HDBK-472 Procedure 5A, Relex Maintainability Prediction fully supports
defining maintainability groups, fault isolation methodologies, and reassembly
parameters. Relex Maintainability Prediction also supports exporting to a MIL-STD-
1388 2B LSAR-compatible format. For more information on Relex Maintainability
Prediction, please visit www.relex.com/products/maintpred.asp.