3/13/2024

Statistics in Economics and

Finance

Lecturer
Dr. Nguyen Thi Xuan Mai
Faculty of Statistics, National Economics University
Address: Room No. 801, Building A1, NEU
Handphone: 0983.608.295
Email: mainx@neu.edu.vn
Website: www.khoathongke.neu.edu.vn

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Objectives
By the end of the course, students should be able to:
• Offer appropriate and effective descriptions of sets of data
• Describe data with graphical, tabular, and quantitative summaries
• Calculate probabilities and describe the characteristics of a probability distribution of
random variables
• Explain the sampling distribution of sample statistics
• Perform statistical inference on population parameters through the problem of
estimating confidence intervals and testing hypotheses
• Conduct and interpret the results of a simple or multiple regression analysis
In addition, you’ll learn basic skills for using SPSS to present and analyze data.

Content
• Chapter 1: Introduction to Statistics
• Chapter 2: Presenting Data in Tables and Charts
• Chapter 3: Numerical Descriptive Measures
• Chapter 4: Probability and Random Variables
• Chapter 5: Sampling Distribution and Estimation
• Chapter 6: Hypothesis Testing
• Chapter 7: Regression Analysis

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Textbook and References

Main Textbook
 Statistics for Management and Economics, 9th edition. Gerald Keller. South-
Western, Cengage Learning, 2011.
Other References
 SPSS Statistics: Guide to Data Analysis
 Statistics for Business and Economics, 13th edition. David R. Anderson,
Dennis J. Sweeney, Thomas A. Williams, Jeffrey D. Camm, James J. Cochran.
South-Western, Cengage Learning, 2017.
 Statistical Techniques in Business & Economics, 18th edition. Lind, Douglas
A.; Marchal, William G.; Wathen, Samuel Adam. McGraw-Hill Education, 2021.

Assessment & Grading Policy

• Attending class: 10%
• Group mid-term exam (project): 20%
• Individual in-class mid-term exam: 20%
• Final exam: 50%

Further details (including date of exams and deadline of assignments) given

during the course.

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Assessment & Grading Policy

 How to achieve 10% of participation?
• Attend every lecture
• Contribution in class and tutorials
• Compliance with the class rules:
• Come prepared – read the readings assigned.
• Turn off cell phones during classes.
• Do not engage in individual discussions
• No food in class time

How to learn?
• Lectures: as indicated
• Tutorials: 30 minutes - 1 hour, from lecture 2 to 7
• Hints for success
• Attend lectures and tutorials, and supplement given materials with your own
comments and notes.
• Work carefully on the tutorials – doing them is how you will understand and
learn
• Time spent trying questions is well spent
• Constantly REFER to notes
• Use resources provided

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Chapter 1. Introduction to Statistics

Reading materials:
Chap 1, 2 (Keller)

Learning objectives
This chapter will help you learn:
How statistics is used in economics and business

What are some basic concepts and terminologies

What are the types of data

What are the sources of data

What are the scales of measurement

What are the two branches of Statistics

How to design a statistical study

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Why learn Statistics?

Everyday decisions are based on incomplete information, i.e, we must deal with
uncertainty

Consider:
• Will the job market be strong when I graduate?
• Will the price of Vinamilk stock be higher in six months than it is now?
• Will interest rates remain low for the rest of the year if the state budget deficit is
as high as predicted?

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Why learn Statistics?

• Data are everywhere.

• Numbers and data are used to assist decision making
• No matter what your career, you will make professional decisions that involve
data.
→ An understanding of statistical methods will help you make these decisions
effectively, especially, under uncertainty.

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What is Statistics?

Statistics is the science of collecting, organizing, analyzing, and

interpreting data in order to make decisions

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Statistical Applications in Economics and Business

 Accounting: Accountants use statistics to forecast consumption, sales,

earnings, cash flow and book value
 Finance: Financial advisors use statistical models to guide their investment
advice
 Marketing: Electronic point-of-sale scanners at retail checkout counters are
used to collect data for a variety of marketing research applications

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Statistical Applications in Economics and Business

 Production: Statistical quality control charts are used to monitor the output of
a production process
 Economics: we estimate and test economic models and their predictions; Use
empirical models for prediction, forecasting, and policy analysis
…

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Some basic concepts and terminologies

• Populations & Samples
• Parameters & Statistics
• Variables & Data
• Elements & Observations

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Populations & Samples

a b cd
• A population is the entire set of observations under study
ef gh i jk l m n
• E.g: A population of all NEU students
o p q rs t u v w
A population of all enterprises located in Vietnam x y z

• A sample is a subset of a population b c

• E.g: A sample of 100 NEU students gi n

A sample of 500 enterprises located in Vietnam o r u

y

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Populations & Samples

• Example:
In a recent survey, 250 students at NEU were asked if they smoked cigarettes
regularly, 35 of the students said yes.
Identify the population and the sample.
Responses of all students at NEU (population)

Responses of students
in survey (sample)

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Parameters & Statistics

• A parameter is a numerical description of a population characteristic.

• A statistic is a numerical description of a sample characteristic.

Parameter Population

Statistic Sample

Note: A sample statistic can differ from sample to sample, whereas the
population parameter is constant.

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Parameters & Statistics

• Example:
Decide whether the numerical value describes a population parameter or a sample
statistic.
a. A recent survey of a sample of 450 college students reported that the average
weekly income for students is $325.

Because the average of $325 is based on a sample, this is a sample statistic.

b. The average weekly income for all students is $405.

Because the average of $405 is based on a population, this is a population parameter.

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Parameters & Statistics

A politician who is running for the office of mayor of a city with 25,000 registered
voters commissions a survey. In the survey, 48% of the 200 registered voters
interviewed say they plan to vote for her.
a. What is the population of interest?
b. What is the sample?
c. Is the value 48% a parameter or a statistic? Explain

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Variables & Data

 A variable is characteristic of an item or individual
Eg: Height of female students
Skin colour of international students in class A
 A data are the observed values of a variable
Eg: Height of 10 female students: 1.6, 1.7, 1.55, 1.59, 1.5, 1.58, 1.64,
1.67, 1.58, 1.55
Skin colour of 5 international students in class A: black, white, white,
yellow, brown, yellow
 The data collected in a particular study are referred to as the data set.

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Elements & Obseverations

• The elements are the entities on which data are collected.
→ A variable is a characteristic of interest for the elements.
• The set of measurements collected for a particular element is called an
observation.
• The total number of data values in a data set is the number of elements
multiplied by the number of variables.

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Summary Table
Variables
Element
Names Stock Annual Earn/
Company Exchange Sales($M) Share($)

Dataram AMEX 73.10 0.86

EnergySouth OTC 74.00 1.67
Keystone NYSE 365.70 0.86
LandCare NYSE 111.40 0.33
Psychemedics AMEX 17.60 0.13

Data Set
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Types of Data

Data

Categorical Numerical
(Qualitative) (Quantitative)

Discrete Continuous

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Categorical (qualitative) data

• Consists of attributes, labels, or nonnumerical entries.

→ Defined categories or groups

• Examples: Marital Status (single, married, separated, divorced, or widowed)

Gender (male, female)

Eye Color (brown, black, blue, …)

 Appropriate statistical analyses are rather limited

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Numerical (quantitative) data

• Consists of numerical measurements or counts.

• Indicate how many or how much:

• Discrete, if measuring how many. E.g., number of Children; age …

• Continuous, if measuring how much. E.g., Weights of postal packages;

Monthly salary …

• Ordinary arithmetic operations are meaningful for quantitative data

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Note
• The appropriate statistical analysis depends on whether the data for the variable
are qualitative or quantitative.

• There are more options for statistical analysis when the data are quantitative.

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Types of Data

For each of the following examples of data, determine the type:

i. The number of kilometers joggers run per week

ii. The cities/provinces in Vietnam

iii. The starting salaries of graduates of NEU

iv. The months in which a firm’s employees choose to take their vacations

v. The occupation of graduates of NEU

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Levers of Measurement (Measurement Scales)

• The level of measurement determines which statistical calculations
are meaningful.
• The four scales of measurement are: nominal, ordinal, interval, and
ratio.
Nominal
Ordinal Lowest
Levels of
to
Measurement
Interval highest
Ratio

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Nomimal Scale
• Data are labels or names used to identify an attribute of the element.
• Eg. Gender, occupation, marital status
Colors in the skin
Names of students in your class
Textbooks you are using this semester
• Data at the nominal scale are qualitative only.
• No mathematical computations can be made at this level.

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Ordinal Scale
• The data have the properties of nominal data and the order or rank of the data is
meaningful.
• Eg. Students of a university are classified by their class standing using a
nonnumeric label such as: freshman, sophomore, junior, senior
Levels of satisfaction with life (dissatisfied, slightly dissatisfied, neutral,
slightly satisfied, satisfied)
Top 50 songs played on the Spotify
• Data at the ordinal scale are qualitative or quantitative.

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Interval Scale
• The data have the properties of ordinal data, and the interval between
observations is expressed in terms of a fixed unit of measure.
• Data at the interval scale are quantitative only.
• Eg. Temperatures; Scores …
• A zero entry simply represents a position on a scale; the entry is not an inherent
zero, i.e, no natural starting point.
• The interval differences are meaningful but we can’t defend ratio relationships.
• Eg. The difference between 10 and 20 degrees is the same as between 20 and
30 degrees but, we can’t say that 30 degrees is twice as hot as 15 degrees

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Ratio Scale
• The data have all the properties of interval data and the ratio of two values is
meaningful.
• This scale must contain a zero value (a natural starting point) that indicates that
nothing exists for the variable at the zero point.
• Data at the ratio scale are quantitative only.
• Eg. Variables such as distance, height, weight, and time…

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Summary of Levels of Measurement

Determine if one
Arrange Subtract data data value is a
Level of Put data in
data in values multiple of
measurement categories
order (Differences) another (A natural
starting point)
Nominal Yes No No No
Ordinal Yes Yes No No
Interval Yes Yes Yes No
Ratio Yes Yes Yes Yes

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What kind of data? What kind of scale?

The placement office at a university regularly surveys the graduates 1 year after graduation
and asks for the following information. For each, determine the type of data.
a. What is your occupation?
b. What is your income?
c. What is your marital status?
d. What is the amount of your student loan?
e. How would you rate the quality of instruction? (excellent, very good, good, fair, poor)

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Types of Data

Data

Cross-sectional Time-series Pooled

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Cross-sectional Data

• Cross-sectional data are collected at the same or approximately the same

point in time.

• E.g. Income distribution of households in Vietnam

Data on GDP per capita in all Asian countries in 2023, etc.

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Time-series Data
• Time-series data are collected over several time periods.
• They are usually collected at fixed intervals, such as daily, weekly, monthly,
quarterly, annually, etc
• E.g. Price of stocks
GDP of Vietnam over 20 years

• Time series data requires different technique to analyze the data compare to
cross-sectional data.

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Pooled Data

• Pooled data is a mixture of time-series data and cross-sectional data.

• E.g. GDP per capita of all Asian countries over ten years

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What kind of data?

OIL PRICE TODAY

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What kind of data?

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Data sources
• Based on the method of collecting information:

Primary data Secondary data

collected by the collected by other
organisation itself for organisations for other
the particular purpose purposes

Eg: you need to know the

Eg: the Vietnam household
consumer’s behaviour of
Techcombank, then collect living standards survey in
this information yourself 2022

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Sources of secondary data

Internet research

 Search through Vietcombank website (www.vietcombank.com.vn) to know the

exchange rate

 Search through Google to gather information about the performance of private

firms in Vietnam since ‘Doi moi’

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Sources of secondary data

Government data and official publications

 The General Statistics Office (GSO) of Vietnam provides all socioeconomic

information (www.gso.gov.vn)

 Data from surveys carried out by GSO and other organisations

 The Ministry of Finance (www.mof.gov.vn) provides information on budget

statement …

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Sources of secondary data

Internal and by-product data
Data collected from different departments in an organisation and used all together
 Data from Sale Department
 Data from Human resource Department
 Customer records
 Sale reports
 Inventory orders …
=> To make decision

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Sources of secondary data

For each of the following examples of data sources, determine the type:

i. An article on poverty reduction in Vietnam

ii. A report from the Department of Marketing

iii. Data from the Production Department

iv. The consumer price index (CPI)

v. Information about customers of Vin Commercial

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Sources of primary data

 A survey is an investigation of one or more characteristics of a population, including:

• A census is a measurement of an entire population (collecting data for a population)
• Ask the preferences of all customers of Vietcombank
• The 2019 Census on Population and Housing of Vietnam (all Vietnamese citizens)
• A census can give accurate data but the population is so large

→ Collecting information from the entire population is time-consuming, expensive,

and sometimes impossible.

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Sources of primary data

• A sample survey is a measurement of part of a population (collecting data for a

sample)
• Ask the preference of some customers of Vietcombank
• Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey 2022 (some households)
→ Sample surveys save more time and cost and can investigate more detailed
information.

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Two branches of Statistics

Descriptive Statistics Inferential Statistics
Collecting and describing Making decisions based on
data sample data

Collect data
Estimation

Present data

Hypothesis testing
Summarize data

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Descriptive Statistics

• Collect data
• e.g., Survey

• Present data
• e.g., Tables and graphs

• Summarize data
• e.g., Sample mean = X i

n Purpose: describe data

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Inferential Statistics
• Inferential Statistics uses data that have been collected from a small group
(sample) to draw conclusions about a larger group (population).
• Because a sample is typically only a part of the whole population, sample data
provide only limited information about the population. As a result, sample
statistics are generally imperfect representatives of the corresponding population
parameters.

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Inferential Statistics
• Estimation
• e.g., Estimate the population mean
weight using the sample mean
weight
• Hypothesis testing
• e.g., Test the claim that the
population mean weight is 70 kg

Inference is the process of drawing conclusions or making decisions

about a population based on sample results

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Inferential Statistics
 Important requirements
• A sample must be representative for the population. That means the profile of
the sample is the same as that of the population => apply sampling techniques
• The sample size is large enough

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Descriptive statistic or inferential statistics

A recent study examined the math and verbal SAT scores of high school seniors
across the country. Which of the following statements are descriptive in nature
and which are inferential.
• The mean math SAT score was 492.
• The mean verbal SAT score was 475.
• Students in the Northeast scored higher in math but lower in verbal.
• 80% of all students taking the exam were headed for college.
• 32% of the students scored above 610 on the verbal SAT.
• The math SAT scores are higher than they were 10 years ago.

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Designing a Statistical Study

GUIDELINES
1. Identify the variable(s) of interest (the focus) and the population of the study.
2. Develop a detailed plan for collecting data. If you use a sample, make sure the
sample is representative of the population.
3. Collect the data.
4. Describe the data.
5. Interpret the data and make decisions about the population using inferential
statistics.
6. Identify any possible errors.

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Data analysis using SPSS

• SPSS means “Statistical Package for the Social Sciences” and was first launched in
1968.
• Since SPSS was acquired by IBM in 2009, it's officially known as IBM SPSS
Statistics but most users still just refer to it as “SPSS”.
• SPSS is software for editing and analyzing all sorts of data.
• SPSS is used by market researchers, health researchers, survey companies,
government entities, education researchers, marketing organizations, data
miners, and many more for the processing and analyzing of survey data.

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SPSS window
• Data View: Used to display data
• Columns represent variables
• Rows represent individual units or groups of units that share common values
of variables
• Variable View: Used to display information on variables in dataset
• Output View: Displays Results of analyses/graphs

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Enter data in SPSS directly

FILE/OPEN/DATA
Set File name
Files of type: SPSS Statistics (*.sav)

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Data View

Columns:
variables

Rows: cases

Under Data
View

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Enter variables 4. Decimals

display

1. Variable NOTE: The first character

name 3. Number of 5. Description
of the variable name must
characters display of variable
be alphabetic.
2. Variable type:
Variable names must be
numeric or
string…
unique, and have to be less
than 64 characters.
Spaces are NOT allowed.
Click this
Window

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Enter variable

Based on your code

book!

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Enter cases

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Import data from Excel

FILE/OPEN/DATA
Files of type: Excel
Select the file you want to import

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Open Excel files in SPSS

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Open Excel files in SPSS

Save this
file as
SPSS data

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Summary

 Understand what is Statistics

 Distinguish population and sample
 Discribe variables and data
 Distinguish types of data
 Categorical data
 Numerical data
 Distinguish scales of measurement
 Understand different sources of data
 Distinguish two branches of statistics

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