1

SPE 47334

Application of Probabilistic Techniques for Assessing Sand Production and Borehole

Instability Risks
P.J. McLellan, SPE, and C.D. Hawkes, SPE, Advanced Geotechnology Inc.

Copyright 1998, Society of Petroleum Engineers, Inc.

This paper was prepared for presentation at the SPE/ISRM Eurock ’98 held in Trondheim,
Norway, 8–10 July 1998.
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information contained in an abstract submitted by the author(s). Contents of the paper, as
presented, have not been reviewed by the Society of Petroleum Engineers and are subject to
correction by the author(s). The material, as presented, does not necessarily reflect any
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Abstract
The mechanical stability of a borehole or perforation tunnels
can have a critical influence on petroleum drilling and
recovery processes. For instance, extensive failure of rock
surrounding an open-hole completion may result in massive
sand production. Furthermore, it is often necessary to evaluate
the risk of borehole instability when drilling through weak
shale cap-rocks, or when drilling underbalanced through
poorly cemented reservoir rocks. Numerous geomechanical
modeling techniques have been developed to address these
issues. However, the existing models are limited in that they
fail to account for the inherent variability of mechanical and
petrophysical properties of rock, as well as uncertain or poorly
constrained values for these and other critical input
parameters.
This paper describes the adaptation of probabilistic
techniques for quantitatively evaluating the risks of borehole
instability or sand production. This technique involves the use
of a versatile poro-elastoplastic model, implemented within
the framework of a spreadsheet-based Monte Carlo simulation
tool. The typical results generated by this model indicate that
rock strength parameters, bottomhole pressure, reservoir
pressure and near-borehole permeability changes have the
most significant influence on the extent of yielding for
underbalanced drilling or production conditions in weak
sandstones.
Introduction
Several types of rock mechanical models have previously been
used for borehole stability and sand production risk analyses.
These models range from simple linear elastic solutions1,2 to
pressure or radius-dependent modulus elastic solutions3,4, to
more complex damage mechanics models5,6, bifurcation
models7, non-continuum models8,9, linear elastic borehole
breakout models10, strain-hardening elastoplastic models11 and
strain-weakening, elastic-brittle-plastic models12,13.
Monte Carlo simulation is an analysis technique for
problems involving uncertainty which is gaining popularity in
petroleum engineering. It has been used for such problems as
estimating recoverable reserves, forecasting production, and
predicting waterflood, enhanced oil recovery performance or
workover success14. The technique consists of specifying a
distribution of values for individual input parameters to an
equation for the particular process being modeled. Multiple
trials are run using input parameters drawn from their
respective distributions. The output values are then grouped in
a histogram or a cumulative distribution function.
In principle, any model could be used to perform Monte
Carlo simulations. However, there are certain practical
limitations imposed on the selection of a model. Most notable
among these are: (1) the speed of computation and (2) the ease
with which a model can be interfaced with a Monte Carlo
simulation engine. These limitations have previously
precluded the use of non-linear rock mechanical models, at
least for running Monte Carlo simulations relatively quickly
on PC’s.
Implementation of Probabilistic Model
Poro-elastoplastic Stability Model. Wang and Dusseault13
developed a semi-analytical poro-elastoplastic model, which
enables the prediction of the extent of plastically yielded rock
around a borehole in a porous, elastic-brittle-plastic medium.
This model accounts for the effects of steady state pore
pressure gradients for both overbalanced and underbalanced
bottomhole pressures, as well as permeability change upon
rock yielding. Subsequent improvements on this model by
McLellan and Wang15 and Hawkes and McLellan16 have
enabled the consideration of the effects of near-wellbore
permeability alteration (e.g., filter cake formation, fracture
plugging, skin effects), capillary threshold pressures for oil-
based mud systems, and transient pore pressure penetration
effects. The semi-analytical solution has been adapted to
model cases where the principal in-situ stresses acting on a
cross-section of a borehole are unequal. This was
2 P.J. MCLELLAN, C.D. HAWKES
accomplished with the use of model derivations by Detournay
and Fairhurst17 and Tokar18, as well as validation and
calibration by comparison to results obtained using finite
element and finite difference geomechanical models. As such,
the model has enhanced flexibility for accurately modeling
both horizontal and vertical well problems in a variety of
tectonic settings. The first version of this Windows-based
program will be available from Advanced Geotechnology in
late 1998.
An example of the type of output generated by the current
version of this model is shown in Fig. 1. Both the size and
shape of the zone of rock which has undergone brittle-plastic
yield (referred to hereafter as the yielded zone) may be used as
indicators of the magnitude of borehole instability risk for
drilling problems, as well as sand production risk for open-
hole production problems. For the examples in this paper, the
Normalized Yielded Zone Area (NYZA) is used as the risk
parameter. NYZA is defined as the cross-sectional area of
yielded rock divided by the original cross-sectional area of the
drilled borehole.
Monte Carlo Simulation Tools. The model described above
has been implemented in a PC-based spreadsheet application.
The solution is accomplished using a Visual Basic macro,
which obtains the required input parameters from selected
spreadsheet cells and returns the values of the output
parameters to the spreadsheet. Calculation of the size of the
yielded zone is generally achieved in a fraction of a second.
Implementation of Monte Carlo simulation is achieved
using the EXCEL add-in called @RISK19. This component
allows the user to specify model input parameters using a
number of built-in probability density functions (PDF’s).
Likewise, the user specifies which spreadsheet cells contain
output parameters that should be captured and stored for each
model simulation. Some comments regarding the choice of
PDF’s for various input parameters as well as the most
important simulation settings are discussed later in this paper.
@RISK provides a number of useful built-in tools for
analyzing the simulation output. These tools include: (1) tables
of detailed and summary statistics for all of the input and
output parameters, (2) parameter sensitivity statistics and
charts, and (3) histograms showing the distributions of the
output parameters.
Analysis Procedure. The basic analysis procedure is
summarized in Fig. 2. The possible sources of input data are
also included in this figure, although it is not uncommon to
have access to only a few of these data sources. The in-situ
stresses, rock properties and reservoir fluid properties are
examples of parameters that can have a critical influence on
the model results but are often poorly constrained or are
known to vary throughout the drilled formations due to
geological heterogeneity.
For borehole stability and sand production risk analyses, a
useful form of the output is a histogram of the NYZA. The
cumulative probability curve on such a plot allows the user to
assess the probability that a critical value of this risk
SPE 47334
parameter will be exceeded. The typical procedure is to
generate a series of output distributions for a range of
controllable operating conditions such as the equivalent
circulating density (ECD) for drilling problems, or the
drawdown pressure for hydrocarbon production problems. It
may be possible from these outputs to determine a safe limit
for the critical operating parameter. An example for a borehole
stability analysis is shown in Fig. 3. In this case, it is
concluded that the risk of borehole instability is too high for
ECD’s less than 1200 kg/m3. This conclusion is based on the
selection of a 25% probability that NYZA exceeds 1.0.
For sand production risk assessments in open-hole
completions, this a type of output might indicate that the risk
of sand production is high for all economically feasible
drawdown pressures. The operator might then conclude that
sand control measures are required. This type of analysis is
also applicable to perforated completions, although the 3D
geometry of this type of problem makes the analysis more
complex.
Some Practical Aspects of Probabilistic Modeling
Selection of Input PDF’s. In the case of input parameters for
which data are available, the use of probabilistic input
represents a means of accounting for the spatial variations
which are expected to occur for a parameter. For example,
Fig. 4 shows the distribution of the peak cohesion strength
parameter from a near-vertical well penetrating a weak
sandstone reservoir. These values were calculated from log-
derived mechanical properties that had been calibrated to
laboratory-measured static mechanical properties from cores
taken from this well. A number of commercially available
software programs exist which can be used for identifying and
ranking the probability distribution functions that best match
the actual data. In this case the best fit PDF was the Extreme
Value distribution, with a location parameter a of 2.01 and a
shape parameter b of 0.75.
When there are little or no data available for some input
parameters, the use of probabilistic input allows the user to
vary the value of each parameter over a plausible range. The
choice of the form of the input function may be somewhat
arbitrary in this case. The use of a uniform PDF is most
cautious where a reasonable estimate of the most likely value
is not available. The triangular PDF is useful in cases where
the user has greater confidence regarding a most likely value.
Minimum Number of Model Iterations. A crucial step in
probabilistic modeling is to ensure that enough simulations are
run so that the true form of the output cumulative probability
function is predicted, while at the same time preserving the
economy of the simulation process by running as few
iterations as possible. The Latin Hypercube sampling method,
although the subject of some criticisms, is the preferred
sampling method because it reduces the necessary number of
model iterations by a factor of approximately 1/3 20.
Simulations should be run until the output parameter
distribution remains essentially unchanged with additional
SPE 47334 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC TECHNIQUES FOR ASSESSING SAND PRODUCTION AND BOREHOLE INSTABILITY RISKS
model iterations. @RISK can monitor the convergence of the
output parameter distributions. For the poro-elastoplastic
model described in this paper, it has been found that iteration
counts in the 1000 to 2000 range satisfy the criteria described
above. These simulations generally require a few minutes to
run on a Pentium-based PC.
Interdependency Among Input Parameters. For many
physical problems, there may exist some degree of
interdependence between two or more input parameters. In
such cases, it is undesirable to allow each of the input
parameters to be randomly selected from independently
prescribed PDF’s. For example, it is known that the
unconfined compressive strength (UCS) of a rock is generally
related to its Young’s Modulus, although the reliability of the
correlation will vary for different lithologies. In such a case, it
is desirable to specify these input parameters in such a way
that they have some measure of interdependence, while
preserving a degree of randomness in the association between
them. The simplest way to accomplish this is to specify an
@RISK PDF for one of the parameters (Young’s Modulus, for
example), and then specify the second parameter (e.g., UCS)
as a function of the first. A PDF may be included in this
function, or a random function generic to the spreadsheet in
use, in order to introduce some variability into the parameter
interdependence.
@RISK also provides built-in tools for generating
interdependent input function distributions based on the
Spearman rank order correlation coefficient. This technique is
implemented by specifying the PDF’s for each interdependent
input parameter, as well as the correlation coefficient
describing the dependence between them. Upon initiating the
simulation, @RISK randomly generates the interdependent
input parameters required to perform all of the model
iterations. Prior to performing the iterations, however, @RISK
then pairs off the individual values from each of these
distributions in such a way as to achieve the desired
correlation coefficient.
Murtha20 describes an example where the variance in a
simulation output is underestimated if input parameter
interdependence is ignored. Similar results have been
observed in our borehole stability and sand production risk
simulations.
Borehole Instability and Sand Production Risk for a
Horizontal Well
This section summarizes the application of the techniques
described above to a borehole instability and sand production
risk assessment study for a horizontal well in a weak
sandstone reservoir. The input parameters used in this analysis
are listed in Table 1. Note that several of the inputs are
specified as PDF’s rather than discrete values. Rock
mechanical properties were estimated from log-derived
dynamic elastic properties from a nearby near-vertical offset
well. The horizontal in-situ stress magnitudes and orientations
were estimated based on the tectonic setting of the field, the
trend of normal faults mapped in this region, back-analysis of
3
hole enlargement measured with 4-arm caliper logs from an
the offset well, and leak-off test results from another field in
the same sedimentary basin. It was noted by the operator that a
slightly overpressured formation pressure gradient of
11.2 kPa/m existed in the reservoir.
The operator wished to assess two issues: (1) would it be
possible to drill the horizontal leg of the well at underbalanced
bottomhole pressures, and (2) would an open-hole completion
in this reservoir be feasible.
Analysis Results. Monte Carlo simulations were
performed over a range of equivalent circulating densities
ranging from underbalanced to overbalanced conditions. The
results are shown in Fig. 5 through Fig. 8. It is clear from
these results that there is a trend of decreasing NYZA with
increasing ECD. As shown in Fig. 9, the mean NYZA is very
large (5.6) at the lowest ECD, and ECD’s in the 1250 to
1300 kg/m3 are range are required to obtain mean NYZA’s of
the order of 1.0. When applying this type of analysis in
previous open-hole stability investigations, it has been
observed that NYZA values of the order of 1.0 are often
associated with the onset of borehole instability-related
difficulties such as stuck pipe. Hence, these results indicate
that the risk of severe borehole instability is unacceptably
large for underbalanced drilling operations, and that ECD’s of
the order of at least 1250 kg/m3 are required to reduce the risk
of borehole instability problems to an acceptable level.
As in the case of borehole instability risk, the tendency of
an barefoot-completed horizontal well to produce sand or at
worst, collapse entirely, is strongly related to the extent of
yielding around the borehole. The results from the borehole
instability risk analysis were also useful for evaluating sand
production risk. Fig. 5 and Fig. 6 show the NYZA histograms
for bottomhole pressures corresponding to drawdowns of 2.2
and 0.6 MPa, respectively. These figures indicate that a
significant amount of yielding will occur even at these
relatively low drawdown pressures. It is difficult to
quantitatively assess the exact extent of yielding that will
result in unacceptable amounts of sand production because
factors such as fluid viscosities, saturations and flow rates as
well as sand grain characteristics will affect the mobilization
of yielded sand. However, it was decided based on these
results that the risk of experiencing problematic amounts of
sand production was unacceptably high, and sand control
measures were required.
Based on recommendations arising from this investigation,
the operator drilled the horizontal well using ECD’s in the
1200 to 1250 kg/m3 range. No serious borehole instability
problems were encountered. Slotted liners were installed to
control sand production, although the performance of this well
during production has not yet been established.
Conclusions
1. Monte Carlo simulation techniques have been applied to
poro-elastoplastic borehole stability analyses for over- or
underbalanced drilling conditions and to assess sand
production risk with drawdown.
4 P.J. MCLELLAN, C.D. HAWKES SPE 47334

2. This technique allows one to account for uncertainty and 15. McLellan, P.J. and Wang, Y.: “Predicting the effects of pore
variability in several rock mechanical input parameters used in pressure penetration on the extent of borehole instability:
the stability analysis Application of a versatile poro-elastoplastic model,” In Proc.
SPE/ISRM Eurock’94, Balkema, Rotterdam (1994) 205.
3. The end result of a Monte Carlo simulation for this class
16. Hawkes, C.D. and McLellan, P.J.: “A new model for predicting
of problem is a Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) time-dependent failure of shales: Theory and application,” paper
which provides an estimate of the probability of a certain CIM 97-131 presented at the 1997 Annual Technical Meeting of
outcome, e.g., the yielded zone size exceeding a threshold the CIM Petroleum Society, Calgary, June 8-11.
value known to result in drilling or production problems. 17. Detournay, E. and Fairhurst, C.: “Two-dimensional elastoplastic
4. Further work is needed to better understand the acceptable analysis of a long, cylindrical cavity under non-hydrostatic
level of risk associated with borehole stability or sand loading,” Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. & Geomech. Abstr. (24(4)
production for various operating conditions. 1987) 197.
18. Tokar, G.: “Generalization of Galin’s problem to frictional
materials and discontinuous stress fields,” Int. J. Solids
References
Structures (26(2) 1990) 129.
1. Bradley, W.B.: “Failure of inclined boreholes,” Transactions of
19. Palisade Corp.: Guide to Using @RISK, Windows Version (Jul.
the ASME (Dec. 1979) 232.
1997) 319.
2. Mody, F.K. and Hale, A.H.: “Borehole-stability model to couple
20. Murtha, J.A.: Decisions Involving Uncertainty: An @RISK
the mechanics and chemistry of drilling-fluid/shale
Tutorial for the Petroleum Industry, James A. Murtha, Houston
interactions,” JPT (Nov. 1993) 1093.
(1995) 171.
3. Santarelli, F.J., Brown, E.T. and Maury, V.: “Analysis of
borehole stresses using pressure-dependent, linear elasticity,”
Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. & Geomech. Abstr. (23(6) 1986)
445.
4. Nawrocki, P. and Dusseault, M.B.: “Modelling of damaged
zones around openings using radius-dependent Young’s
modulus,” J. Can. Petrol. Tech. (Mar. 1996) 31.
5. Cheng, H. and Dusseault, M.B.: “Deformation and diffusion
behaviour in a solid experiencing damage: a continuous damage
model and its numerical implementation,” Int. J. Rock Mech.
Min. Sci. & Geomech. Abstr. (30 1993) 1323.
6. Shao, J.F. and Khazraei, R.: “Borehole stability analysis in
brittle rocks with continuous damage model,” In Proc.
SPE/ISRM Eurock’94, Balkema, Rotterdam (1994) 215.
7. Papamichos, E., Vardoulakis, I. and Sulem, J.: “Generalized
continuum models for borehole stability analysis,” In Proc.
SPE/ISRM Eurock’94, Balkema, Rotterdam (1994) 37.
8. Thallak, S., Rothenburg, L. and Dusseault, M.B.: “Analysis of
borehole stability using discrete element models,” In Proc. 7th
Int. Congress on Rock Mechanics, Aachen, Germany (1991)
813.
9. Rawlings, C.G., Barton, N.R., Bandis, S.C., Addis, M.A. and
Gutierrez, M.S.: “Laboratory and numerical discontinuum
modeling of borehole stability,” JPT (Nov. 1993) 1086.
10. Zheng, Z., Kemeny, J. and Cook, N.G.W.: “Analysis of
borehole breakouts,” JGR (B94 1989) 7171.
11. Bradford, I.D.R. and Cook, J.M.: “A semi-analytic elastoplastic
model for borehole stability with applications to sanding,” In
Proc. SPE/ISRM Eurock’94, Balkema, Rotterdam (1994) 347.
12. Ladanyi, B.: “Use of the long-term strength concept in the
determination of ground pressure on tunnel linings,” In Proc. 3rd
Int. Congress on Rock Mechanics, National Academy of
Sciences, Washington (1974) 1150.
13. Wang, Y. and Dusseault, M.B.: “Borehole yield and hydraulic
fracture initiation in poorly consolidated rock strata - Part II.
Permeable media,” Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci. & Geomech.
Abstr. (28 1991) 247.
14. Murtha, J.: “Incorporating historical data into Monte Carlo
simulation,” paper SPE 26245 presented at the 1993 Petroleum
Computer Conference, New Orleans, Jul. 11-14.
SPE 47334 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC TECHNIQUES FOR ASSESSING SAND PRODUCTION AND BOREHOLE INSTABILITY RISKS 5

TABLE 1: BASE CASE INPUT PARAMETERS USED FOR BOREHOLE YIELD MODELING,
HORIZONTAL WELL IN A WEAK SANDSTONE RESERVOIR
Parameter Value*
peak friction angle {30, 35, 40}°
residual friction angle peak friction angle - {3, 5, 7}°
peak cohesion {0.75, 0.9, 1.05} MPa
residual cohesion {0.25, 0.75, 1} × peak cohesion MPa
Biot’s poroelastic coefficient 1
poroplastic coefficient 1
Young’s modulus 500 MPa
Poisson's ratio 0.3
Elastic zone permeability 5000 mD
Yielded zone permeability {0.2, 1, 4} × kelastic mD
filter cake efficiency {0.5, 0.8, 1}
yielded zone fluid viscosity 3 mPa·s
elastic zone fluid viscosity 3 mPa·s
drainage radius 6m
vertical stress gradient {21, 22, 23} kPa/m
maximum horizontal stress gradient {1.0, 1.05, 1.1} × min. horizontal stress grad.
minimum horizontal stress gradient {13.5, 14, 15} kPa/m
azimuth of minimum horizontal stress NE-SW
reservoir pressure gradient 11.2 kPa/m
equivalent circulating density 1000 to 1300 kg/m3
true vertical depth 1530 mKB
well radius 0.108 m
wellbore orientation parallel to maximum horizontal stress
KB height 5.4 m above ground level

*Numbers in parentheses represent the left, center and right points of a triangular probability density function

maximum horizontal stress

NYZA = A1
A2

A1
minimum intact rock
horizontal A2
stress predicted yielded
zone size

drilled hole size

Fig. 1.—Yielded zone dimensions predicted by poro-elastoplastic model.

6 P.J. MCLELLAN, C.D. HAWKES SPE 47334

Well Design
Rock Mechanical Data
In-Situ Stress • Depth
• Regional data • Azimuth • Dynamic elastic properties
• Fracturing data • Inclination • Lab strength tests
• Breakouts • Hole size • Log analysis
• Drawdown • Back analysis

Petrophysical Data
Reservoir Data
• porosity Borehole Stability
• permeability & • Reservoir pressures
• sonic velocity • Fluid viscosity
Sand Production
• density • PVT
• saturations Risk Model

Probabilistic
Analysis Using
Monte Carlo
Techniques

Prediction of the
Probability of Various
Outcomes
e.g. Severe Hole Collapse
to Minor Sanding

PROBABILITY

RUBBLE FILL PERCENTAGE

Normalized Yielded Zone Area

Fig. 2.—Procedure for probabilistic modeling of borehole instability or sand production risk.
SPE 47334 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC TECHNIQUES FOR ASSESSING SAND PRODUCTION AND BOREHOLE INSTABILITY RISKS 7

100

90

80 1100 kg/m^3
1200 kg/m^3
1300 kg/m^3
Cumulative Probability (%)

70
1400 kg/m^3

60
ECD required to reduce probability of instability-
related problems to less than 25%
50

40

30 NYZA above which borehole instability-related problems are

expected (depends on local conditions)
20

10

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
Normalized Yielded Zone Area
Fig. 3.—Example showing the cumulative probability of NYZA for a range of mud equivalent circulating densities.

0.8

0.7

0.6
Best Fit PDF:
Extreme Value Function (a = 2.01, b = 0.75)
0.5
Frequency

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
1.2
1.6
2.0
2.3
2.7
3.0
3.4
3.7
4.1
4.4
4.8
5.2
5.5
5.9
6.2
6.6
6.9
7.3
7.7
8.0

Cohesion (MPa)

Fig. 4.—Histogram of log-derived peak cohesion values for a weak sandstone reservoir.
8 P.J. MCLELLAN, C.D. HAWKES SPE 47334

100% 300 100% 350

90% 90%
300
250
80% 80%

70% ECD = 1000 kg/m 3 70% 250

(Drawdown = 2.2 MPa) 200

Cumulative Frequency
Cumulative Frequency

ECD = 1100 kg/m 3

60% 60% (Drawdown = 0.6 MPa) 200

Frequency
Frequency
50% 150 50%
150
40% 40%
100
30% 30% 100

20% 20%
50
50
10% 10%

0% 0 0% 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Normalized Yielded Zone Area Normalized Yielded Zone Area

Fig.5—Predicted extent of yielding in a weak sandstone reservoir Fig.6—Predicted extent of yielding in a weak sandstone reservoir
3 3
at 1000 kg/m ECD (drawdown pressure = 2.2 MPa). at 1100 kg/m ECD (drawdown pressure = 0.6 MPa).

100% 300 100% 600

90% 90%
250 500
80% 80%

70% ECD = 1200 kg/m 3 70% ECD = 1300 kg/m 3

200 400
Cumulative Frequency
Cumulative Frequency

60% 60%

Frequency
Frequency

50% 150 50% 300

40% 40%
100 200
30% 30%

20% 20%
50 100
10% 10%

0% 0 0% 0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5
Normalized Yielded Zone Area Normalized Yielded Zone Area

Fig.7—Predicted extent of yielding in a weak sandstone reservoir Fig.8—Predicted extent of yielding in a weak sandstone reservoir
3 3
at 1200 kg/m ECD. at 1300 kg/m ECD.
SPE 47334 APPLICATION OF PROBABILISTIC TECHNIQUES FOR ASSESSING SAND PRODUCTION AND BOREHOLE INSTABILITY RISKS 9

mean + std dev

7 mean
mean - std dev
6

5
NYZA

1
underbalanced overbalanced
0
1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300
3
ECD (kg/m )

Fig.9—Summary of Monte Carlo simulation results: predicted extent of yielding while

drilling a horizontal well in a weak sandstone reservoir.